BlogMemorial Tournament Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s back to Muirfield, and with the U.S. Open just two weeks away, the Memorial used to be the place to get ready.  The big question will be if the way Muirfield Village is set up, will it be a good way of getting ready for Los Angeles Country Club?  The two courses are different, and yes L.A. Country Club will have rough, but the course is more of a links type of design.  Many will wonder if next week’s RBC Canadian Open at Oakdale Golf and Country Club will be better suited.  Frankly, I think that Colonial was a better place to get ready for the U.S. Open.

Some of the big names not in this event are Max Homa, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Rose.  Now we know about Zalatoris with the injury, and we know about Smith and Koepka not being allowed to play.  As for Homa, his sister is getting married this week, so he will be there.  As of today, we don’t know if he will be in Canada, the same with Tony Finau, who has not played well winning the Mexico Open (Missed cut PGA & Colonial).  Justin Rose, who won the Memorial in 2010, hasn’t played at the Memorial since 2020 when he missed the cut.  He is planning on playing in Canada.

Of those playing have to say this will be a big week for Jon Rahm.  Yes, he has won four times in 2023. He did struggle at the PGA Championship, having his worst finish of the year (T-50th). He comes to a course that he won in 2020. In 2021 had a six-shot lead going into the final round, but because he tested positive for COVID had to withdraw.  Last year he was T-10th, but he loves Muirfield Village, and I think he would love to win again at the Memorial, his last start before the U.S. Open.

This week could also be a big week for Patrick Cantlay.  In six starts, he has two wins, a T-3rd (last year), and a T-4th.  Of all the courses on the PGA Tour, there is not one he has played better at except for TPC Summerlin, which is the home of the Shriners Hospitals.  As for 2023, he started slow, but since Genesis in February has played nine times with four top-four finishes.  He was very impressive at Oak Hill, after opening with a 74, he shot 67-72-66 and finished T-9th.  I think he will be ready to go.

Have to think that Xander Schauffele could be good. Know that in five starts, his best finish is only T-11th, but he always seems to be consistent.  He has played well since the Match Play finishing five times in the top ten in six starts, his worst finish was T-18th at the PGA Championship.

We also wonder about Viktor Hovland, who has made three cuts at the Memorial, but his best finish is T-47th.  Hard to believe that in his three starts, he only shot in the 60s once in 2020.  He has played well the last couple of months on tough courses, was T-7th at the Masters, T-2nd at the PGA Championship, and T-16th last week at Colonial.  I still think he is a heartbeat away from a victory.

We saw what happened last week with Emiliano Grillo winning  We can say that he showed promise finishing T-7th at the Heritage and T-5th at the Mexico Open.  He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, and at Colonial, over 11% made him one of their six picks in DraftKings.  Don’t expect much from him this week. He was T-9th in 2019 but since missed the cut in 2020 & ’21 and was T-32nd last year.  So who could be the off-the-wall pick for this week, look at Si Woo Kim.  He was T-29th at Colonial but was T-2nd at the Byron Nelson.  Kim has had a good year, including winning at the Sony Open in Hawaii, a course that produced winners like Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar, who also won at the Memorial.

One last item, I always enjoy watching Charles Schwab.  Think that Colonial is one of the special courses in America. Many think it has lost a bit of its toughness due to Technology.  Before Dan Jenkins died in 2019, we would have talks on Colonial, a course dear to his heart, and Jenkins said that of all the courses that hold PGA Tour events on, Colonial has been hit the hardest with technology.  The land the course is on doesn’t allow to add yardage to hit, so it will be interesting to see what Gil Hansen is going to do.  We do know that as of Monday, bulldozers will tear apart the course, and it’s membership, which is going to pay $20 million for the renovation, won’t be able to play on the course again until next June.  So looking forward to seeing the changes.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Things you need to know about the Memorial

This is the 48th annual Memorial Tournament. The first one was played in 1976 and has always been played at Muirfield Village. There are close ties between the Memorial Tournament and Jack Nicklaus. The tournament was a long-time vision of Nicklaus, who grew up playing at the famous Scioto Country Club, which hosted the 1926 U.S. Open. But the course wasn’t large enough to hold a major championship, so Nicklaus built Muirfield Village with that in mind. In some ways, the Memorial mirrors the Masters because it’s the tournament Nicklaus always thought was the best run on a great course.

The tournament was named because a different golfer is recognized for contributing to golf annually. The first Memorial Tournament honoree was Bobby Jones in 1976. This year, Larry Nelson is the honoree; in the Journalism category, the 2023 selection is John Huggan. The ceremony is on Wednesday afternoon.

Course information:

• Muirfield Village Golf Club
• Dublin, Ohio
• 7,533 yards  Par 36-36–72

Muirfield Village has a 76.9 rating and a slope rating of 153 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees and Fairways are Bentgrass Poa Annua, while the rough is Kentucky Bluegrass with ryegrass and fescue. The greens are bentgrass. They were redone before last year’s tournament, so with another year of growth, they should be great for this week.

The tournament got its start thanks to Jack Nicklaus. During the 1966 Masters, Nicklaus told some of his closest friends that he wanted to bring a major championship to the Columbus area. Unfortunately, the best course in town, Scioto Country Club, was not big enough to hold the tournament Nicklaus envisioned. He was getting into course designing, so he knew just enough to be dangerous on the subject. He also imagined that his course would have the same characteristics that Augusta National had, plus Nicklaus wanted the event to mirror Augusta National.

After the Masters, Nicklaus and his trusted friends made secret site surveys around the Columbus area and found the site he thought was perfect on the Northwestern part of town. In 1967 with his own money, Nicklaus started buying the land that would be Muirfield Village.

By 1970, Nicklaus realized he had a future in building golf courses. He started his own company, and in 1972, under the supervision of Golden Bear Inc., construction began in Dublin, Ohio. The project encountered many delays, including excessive amounts of rain that ultimately postponed the completion of the project until late 1973. The project also almost bankrupted Nicklaus, who funded the whole thing. Nicklaus played the inaugural round of golf at Muirfield in October 1973. Fittingly, his round was marred by torrential rainstorms. The course officially opened on May 24, 1974, with an exhibition match between Nicklaus and Tom Weiskopf. Nicklaus shot a 66, which stood as the course record until 1979.

Over the years, Muirfield Village has racked up numerous prestigious awards. Still, the essential accolade that Muirfield Village gets every year is when it is voted one of the five best sites by PGA Tour players, not only because the course is excellent but because of how well the players are pampered here. It goes beyond even the PGA Tour rules. It’s the only tournament on Tour that bans equipment manufacturers, tournament representatives, and the media from the practice facilities and locker rooms.

When Nicklaus built the course in the ’70s, he had championships in mind and a yearly PGA Tour event. Along with the Memorial, which started in 1976, the course held almost every other major tournament except for a U.S. Open or a PGA Championship. Other championships at Muirfield include the 1986 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 1987 Ryder Cup Matches, the 1992 U.S. Amateur, the 1998 Solheim Cup, and the 2013 Presidents Cup.

The par 72 course has 73 bunkers, with water coming into play on 11 holes. Muirfield Village plays a long, challenging 7,533 yards with Nicklaus’s new revamp on the course in 2020/21. With a course rating of 76.9 and a slope rating of 153, it is one of the most challenging venues on the Tour.

Nicklaus didn’t just design this course with the golfer in mind; he was one of the first designers to account for the fan. The 220-acre venue strategically incorporates hills and mounds, allowing fans to look down upon most of the action. This setup mirrors most traditional stadium-seating arrangements found at major sporting events.

Over the years, Nicklaus tweaked the course, and after the 2020 event, he did a complete revamp by redoing all 18 greens, redoing all the bunkers and contouring, and making changes to 16 of the 18 holes. The only ones he left untouched were the 12th and 14th holes. Along with the greens, all fairways were resurfaced, and additional drainage was installed.

Nicklaus had no sinister plot to make the course harder. He just felt at the age of 81 that there were things he wanted to do. The changes were made to make the holes more playable and enjoyable. So we shouldn’t see any complaints this week that the course is too severe. If anything, Nicklaus may have taken some of the toughness out of the course, but many feel that scoring-wise, it will be about the same as last year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Muirfield Village.

As we saw with how the course played last year, the changes made in 2021 were more cosmetic than making the course harder. All Nicklaus wanted to do was make the course as perfect as possible. He has realized that since turning 80 three years ago, he doesn’t have many more changes to make on the course and how he wants it to be. Sure, the course is 50 years old and has seen a lot of changes; in Jack’s mind, the changes made now are all cosmetic in nature. It’s as if in the years after he painted the Mona Lisa, Leonardo da Vinci decided to make some “a few changes” to that perfect picture.
The course is always “perfect,” and in Jack Nicklaus’s mind, he has made Muirfield Village as good as possible.
We saw that the course changes had nothing to do with making the course “hard.” Last year the scoring average at Muirfield Village was 73.06, it was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022. The previous year’s scoring average was 72.97, the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021. Compare it to 2020, when the scoring average was 74.01, and it was the 2nd toughest average for the year. In 2021 the course was soft. It rained on Thursday and for parts of Sunday. The winds were normal, 10-15 mph, but the course was perfect for low scores. That is not the case in 2020. The weather was terrible over the weekend, with lots of wind, one of the reasons it was 74.01 for the week. In 2019 the scoring average was 72.08, and it was the 13th hardest course of the year. I bet that is what Nicklaus is looking for this year. Again Jack didn’t make the changes after the 2021 Memorial to make the course harder, just more enjoyable to play. One thing we saw in 2021, part of the changes, was that tournament officials could control the moisture in the fairways and greens. The sub-pumps under the course could make the course firmer in wet conditions. But of course, we have seen a lot of rain and storms in the years the Memorial has been played. This year will be different as there won’t be a single drop of rain during the week, which is a significant accomplishment for this event that always has rain.  More good news for the players, the winds will be below 10 mph each day, so look for low scores this week.

In looking at our four categories and knowing the course is 100% perfect, our first for Muirfield Village is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green We get this by combining two stats. Last year, Muirfield Village was 39th in Driving Accuracy, T-11th in Driving Distance, and 4th in Greens in Regulation. So our choice of Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green makes sense when you see that last year’s winner Billy Horschel was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The same happened in 2021 when Patrick Cantlay was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020, the winner Jon Rahm was 3rd, and going even further, 2019 champion Patrick Cantlay ranked 2nd; 2018 champion Bryson DeChambeau ranked 12th; 2017 champion Jason Dufner ranked 1st; 2016 winner William McGirt ranked 7th, and 2015 champion David Lingmerth ranked 9th. So this is a great first choice when you consider that out of the last 8 winners, three ranked 1st, and of the eight, seven were in the top ten.
The next important is putting inside 10 feet. Muirfield Village has some great greens, they are only 5,000 square feet but have a lot of undulation, and the bentgrass is easy to read. Still, with the greens running at 12 on the stipmeter, you will do very well if you make a lot of putts in this distance. Last year Muirfield Village ranked 19th as Billy Horscel ranked T-25th making 64 of 71 putts inside ten feet, so to keep up, the winner needs to do well in this category. In 2021 the course ranked 35th easiest, while winner Patrick Cantlay wasn’t that great, ranking 61st as he made 59 of 70 putts in this range. Jon Rahm did much better the year before as he was 11th, completing 65 of 71 putts. 2019 winner Patrick Cantlay was 19th, making 64 of 71 putts. You have to putt well to score well at Muirfield Village. Last year the field made 87.93% of the putts in that distance, so look for players that make lots of putts.
Our third important stat is scrambling; players will miss greens and must get it up and down. The course ranked 14th, while Billy Horsely was 1st. In 2021 Muirfield Village ranked 11th and 1st in 2020, 7th in 2019, 11th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, 14th in 2016, and 13th in 2015. In 2021 Cantlay ranked 6th in scrambling, while Rahm ranked T-3rd in 2020. In 2019 Cantlay ranked 5th, DeChambeau ranked 1st in 2018, Dufner in 2017 was 30th, McGirt ranked 6th in 2016, and Lingmerth was T-9th.
Our last category is birdie average. Last year it ranked 13th, while in 2021, it was T-16th. In 2020 it was 5th, and T-28th in 2019. In 2018 it ranked 42nd; in 2017, it ranked 29th; in 2016, it ranked 48th and in 2015 was 43rd, which means a lot of birdies were made, with the average number of birdies by players being 3.28 last year, 3.30 average in 2021, 2.99 average in 2020 and 3.77 in 2019. For the year 2018, it was 4.02. In 2017 it was 3.61, and 4.24 per round in 2016. So how did our winners do? Horschel wasn’t a birdie machine last year as he made just 15 which ranked T-24th, the worst a winner has ever done at the Memorial. In 2021 Cantlay made 20 birdies and ranked 3rd; in 2020, Rahm made 18 birdies and ranked T-3rd. In 2019 Cantlay made 25 birdies; in 2018 DeChambeau was T-7th; Dufner was T-2nd in 2017, averaging 5.25; McGirt was at 5.00, which ranked T-16th and Lingmerth averaged 5.50 and ranked T-6th.
So we can see that there are many ways to win at Muirfield Village, but you still have to hit the fairways and stay out of the rough. You then have to hit the greens, and if you’re a good putter, you will do well at the Memorial.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: The per-round average of the number of strokes the player was better or worse than the field average on the same course & event minus the players’ strokes gained putting value.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy. Count every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

The 105 of the 120 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link for all the stats of the players

DraftKings tips

Of the 120 in the field, 92 have played at least once at Muirfield Village in The Memorial since 2010:

• Matt Kuchar is 70 under in 42 rounds, playing 12 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 49 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Rory McIlroy is 35 under in 40 rounds, playing 11 years
• Jordan Spieth is 29 under in 38 rounds, playing 10 years
• Rickie Fowler is 28 under in 44 rounds, playing 13 years
• Adam Scott is 26 under in 36 rounds, playing 9 years
• Kevin Streelman is 26 under in 44 rounds, playing 13 years
• Jon Rahm is 25 under in 13 rounds, playing 4 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 23 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Jason Dufner is 19 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Kevin Kisner is 15 under in 23 rounds, playing 7 years
• Byeong Hun An is 15 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Billy Horschel is 14 under in 32 rounds, playing 9 years
• Jason Day is 13 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 12 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Francesco Molinari is 11 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Xander Schauffele is 10 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 8 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Russell Henley is 8 under in 18 rounds, playing 6 years
• Si Woo Kim is 7 under in 26 rounds, playing 7 years
• Sahith Theegala is 5 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• David Lingmerth is 5 under in 36 rounds, playing 10 years
• Brendon Todd is 4 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Gary Woodland is 4 under in 40 rounds, playing 12 years
• Davis Riley is 3 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Tyrrell Hatton is 3 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Garrick Higgo is 2 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Aaron Rai is 1 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Collin Morikawa is 1 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Matt Wallace is 1 under in 6 rounds, playing 2 years
• Luke Donald is 0 under in 28 rounds, playing 8 years
• Justin Thomas is 0 under in 26 rounds, playing 8 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Patrick Cantlay is 49 under, playing 6 years (-8.2)
• Jon Rahm is 25 under, playing 4 years (-6.3)
• Matt Kuchar is 70 under, playing 12 years (-5.8)
• Scottie Scheffler is 8 under, playing 2 years (-4.0)
• Francesco Molinari is 11 under, playing 3 years (-3.7)
• Rory McIlroy is 35 under, playing 11 years (-3.2)
• Jordan Spieth is 29 under, playing 10 years (-2.9)
• Adam Scott is 26 under, playing 9 years (-2.9)
• Hideki Matsuyama is 23 under, playing 8 years (-2.9)
• Byeong Hun An is 15 under, playing 6 years (-2.5)
• Sahith Theegala is 5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)
• Rickie Fowler is 28 under, playing 13 years (-2.2)
• Kevin Kisner is 15 under, playing 7 years (-2.1)
• Kevin Streelman is 26 under, playing 13 years (-2.0)
• Xander Schauffele is 10 under, playing 5 years (-2.0)
• Jason Dufner is 19 under, playing 10 years (-1.9)
• Emiliano Grillo is 12 under, playing 7 years (-1.7)
• Billy Horschel is 14 under, playing 9 years (-1.6)
• Russell Henley is 8 under, playing 6 years (-1.3)
• Jason Day is 13 under, playing 11 years (-1.2)
• Si Woo Kim is 7 under, playing 7 years (-1.0)
• Brendon Todd is 4 under, playing 5 years (-0.8)
• David Lingmerth is 5 under, playing 10 years (-0.5)
• Matt Wallace is 1 under, playing 2 years (-0.5)
• Gary Woodland is 4 under, playing 12 years (-0.3)
• Collin Morikawa is 1 under, playing 3 years (-0.3)
• Luke Donald is 0 under, playing 8 years (0.0)
• Justin Thomas is 0 under, playing 8 years (0.0)
• Shane Lowry is 3 under, playing 6 years (0.5)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Charles Schwab (We don’t include team events), a total of 70 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least nine events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,300
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,500
• Xander Schauffele – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $9,900
• Viktor Hovland – $9,700
• Jason Day – $9,400
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,300
• Justin Thomas – $9,200
• Sungjae Im – $9,100
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,000

Scottie Scheffler is the top dog at $11,300, and we have to say that, yes, this is a boatload of money to risk on just one pick, but Scheffler has delivered the goods.  He won 121.5 points at the Byron Nelson, 87 at the PGA, and 92.5 last week at Colonial. A bit strange after finishing 3rd at the Memorial in 2021, he didn’t play last year.  Still, he is playing well and is the best player in the field.  Jon Rahm at $11,000, is also a great pick. He won in 2020 and would of won in 2021 if he had not tested positive for COVID.  Last year he was T-10th, but still, this course is perfect for him, and he is worth the money.  I don’t like Rory McIlroy at $10,600, his record at Muirfield Village is good but not great.  On top of that has struggled with his game, yes, he was T-7th at the PGA Championship, but he still doesn’t look good enough to justify the high cost.  Now a person worth the cost is Patrick Cantlay at $10,500.  Of those in the field, he has the best Memorial record, including two wins, a third, and a fourth.  His game has been solid since missing the cut at Phoenix, he will be worth the cost this week.  Xander Schauffele at $10,200 is questionable just because Xander has not done anything spectacular at the Memorial.  Yes, he has four straight top-25 finishes, but the best is T-11th.  He has played well of late, which is something that could sway you to pick him, but there are so many really good players that are doing well it’s hard to pick Xander.  It’s a big no for me on Collin Morikawa at $9,900.  Yes, I know that he won at Muirfield Village in the 2020 Workday Charity played at Muirfield because of COVID.  But Collin’s game is not sharp, and he hasn’t played well since the Genesis, so he is an easy pass.  Viktor Hovland at $9,700 is a challenging thought, I think he is knocking on heaven’s door to a victory, but he hasn’t delivered the goods at the Memorial and struggled on the last day at Colonial.  As for Jason Day at $9,400, he was T-4th at the 2020 Memorial, but that is his only top-ten in 13 starts.  I think it’s best to wait for the U.S. Open.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,300 is a thought for many, but not for me.  Only played once at the Memorial, finishing T-33rd way back in 2019.  Despite playing well of late, I don’t think his game messes with Muirfield Village, so take a pass on him.  The same with Justin Thomas at $9,200 whose game has been in a funk since Phoenix.  Sungjae Im at $9,100 was a great pick two weeks ago, but he missed back-to-back starts at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab, so take a pass on him.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,000 is also a not, yes, he was 3rd at the Memorial in 2020 but missed the cut in his last two starts.  Since winning the Heritage, he hasn’t been sharp finishing T-35th at the Wells Fargo and missing the cut at the PGA Championship.

Making the most cuts at the Memorial

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Memorial on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Memorial starts:

• Patrick Cantlay made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,500.
• Adam Scott made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Viktor Hovland made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,700.
• Zach Johnson made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• K.H. Lee made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Corey Conners made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Joel Dahmen made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Jordan Spieth made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Si Woo Kim made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Matt Kuchar made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Rory McIlroy made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Stewart Cink made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Xander Schauffele made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.
• David Lingmerth made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Brendon Todd made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Billy Horschel made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Lucas Glover made 10 cuts in 13 starts for a 76.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,700.
• Luke Donald made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Adam Hadwin made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Danny Willett made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Keith Mitchell made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• J.T. Poston made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Harris English made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Jason Day made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

As for Cameron Young at $8,800 he hasn’t been great since the Masters, but fair warning that he is like a wave crashing on shore, every fifth or sixth wave is big, and the same with Young.  Every fifth or sixth start, he does well, and this is his fourth start since playing well at the Masters.  I like Sam Burns at $8,600, he hasn’t done well at the Memorial but was T-6th at Colonial, and have a feeling he is playing well again.  The same with Rickie Fowler at $8,500, I have that feeling this could be his week. People forget that Fowler was 2nd at the Memorial in 2010 and was runner-up again in 2017.  So he could surprise everyone but me with a good event this week.  Sahith Theegala at $8,400 is also worth a look. He was T-5th last year and has been very consistent on tour all year.  Corey Conners at $8,300 is also worth a look, he has played well of late and was T-13th at the Memorial last year.  If you want a good bargain then Adam Scott at $8,000 is well worth it.  He hasn’t missed a cut in over a year and has played well of late.  He was 2nd at the Memorial in 2019 and has four top-five finishes in 14 starts.  Nothing fancy, but I think he could squeeze out 70 to 80 points this week.  Si Woo Kim at $8,000 is also a big bargin, he was T-13th last year at the Memorial and T-9th the previous year.  He was runner-up at the Nelson and won the Sony Open in Hawaii, all those courses are like Muirfield Village.  Matt Kuchar at $7,500 is a good bargain, he makes a lot of cuts and plays well at the Memorial.  Harris English at $7,500 is also a thought, he has never played great at Muirfield Village but was T-12th at Colonial and T-3rd at Wells Fargo.  The last person to think about in this price range is defending champion Billy Horschel at $7,500.  Nothing fancy, but he is ok on this course and could pull in 60 or so points.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Memorial

Byeong Hun An at $7,400 is worth the money, he was T-2nd at the Memorial in 2019 and has played steady all year.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,200 is a thought, he has two top-40 starts at the Memorial and has played steady in 2023.  Last week at Colonial, he was 57.5 points, and at the Byron Nelson won 94.5 points, yes, he is worth the cost.  Very surprised to see Ryan Fox so low at $7,100.   He has played well in his first year on the PGA Tour, and I think he will make the cut this week.  Nicolai Hojgaard at $7,000 is a guy that has played well, playing for the first time at the Memorial, he will make the cut and earn you 60 or so points.  Akshay Bhatia at $6,500 is so cheap and does make a lot of cuts, you have to take him.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Memorial:

The key stat for the winner:

• Muirfield Village is a course that could get you ready for a U.S. Open.  No matter how comfortable, you can’t overpower this course, you have to hit it in the fairway and think each shot to the green.

Another key:

• Those that do well in majors do well at Muirfield Village.  Of the 36 different champions of the Memorial, they have accounted for 536 wins on the PGA Tour, while 21 have won a total of 72 major championships. What’s more, 17 of the last 30 Memorial champions have been a winner of a major championship.
• In the history of the Memorial, only three leaders after the first round have won (Ernie Els in 2004, Justin Rose in 2010, and Jason Dufner 2017). 15 second-round leaders have won, and 21 third-round leaders have won.  Between 1994 and 2006, 11 of the 14 winners were in the lead after the third round.  But since 2007, only 6 champions had the lead going into the final round, so again, look for someone coming out of the pack to win.
• 14 of the last 26 winners were in the top four in greens hit. In 2009 Tiger Woods was T3rd in greens hit while Justin Rose was T-13th in 2010, Steve Stricker was T30th in 2011, Tiger Woods was T-1st in 2012, and Matt Kuchar was also 1st in 2013.  In 2014 Hideki Matsuyama was T-22nd, while David Lingmerth was T-16th in 2015.  In 2016 William McGirt was T-7th in greens hit, while in 2017, Jason Dufner led greens hit.  In 2018 Bryson DeChambeau was T-12th in greens hit, while in 2019, Patrick Cantlay was T-11th.  In 2020 Jon Rahm hit 48 of the 72 greens and was 3rd best in the field.  In 2021 Patrick Cantlay hit 54 greens and was T-1st.  The same with Billy Horschel last year, he was T-1st, hitting 53 of 72 greens showing that good iron play is rewarded at Muirfield Village.
• Overpowering the par fives is important, but Patrick Cantlay still won in 2021, even though he was just 5 under.  Things were different in 2019 when Patrick Cantlay was 12 under the best of the winners since Tiger Woods was 14 under in 2001.  Last year Billy Horschel won, playing the par 5s in 9 under.
• In past years hitting greens has been significant, as Muirfield Village has some of the hardest set of greens to hit from the fairway.  Once you miss the greens, it’s hard to get it up and down, in 2014, of the 2,631 greens missed, only 1,375 par or better was made, it was the fourth hardest course in scrambling at 52.26%.  In 2015 of the 2,504 greens missed only 1,382 par or better were made, making it the 13th hardest.  In 2016 of the 2,386 greens missed only 1,240 par or better were make making it the 14th hardest on tour.  In 2017 of the 2,810 greens missed only 1,433 were able to get it up and down, making it the 2nd hardest on tour.  In 2018 2,419 greens were missed, with 1,315 able to get it up and down, the 11th hardest on tour, in 2019 2,579 greens were missed, with 1,420 able to get it up and down, making it the 7th hardest on tour. In 2020 2,579 greens were missed, with 1,501 able to get it up and down, making it #1 ranked on the PGA Tour.  In 2021 2,789 greens were missed, with 1,490 players able to get it up and down, making it #11 on the PGA Tour.  Last year 2,950 greens were missed, and 1,620 times they were able to get it up and down, making it 14th on the PGA Tour.
• Accuracy is key to winning at Memorial, 13 of the last 20 winners have been in the top-10 in driving accuracy, which proves the point that you have to drive the ball well at Muirfield Village.  In 2009 Tiger Woods was 2nd, while in 2010, Justin Rose was T-10th.  In 2011 Steve Stricker kept the tradition up as he was T-3rd, but in 2012 Tiger Woods broke the tradition when he was T-14th in driving, making him the first player out of the top-ten in driving since Ernie Els won in 2004.  Even worst, things got bad in 2013 as Matt Kuchar was T-37th in driving accuracy, in 2014 Matsuyama was T-11th, while in 2015 Lingmerth was T-11th. In 2016 McGirt was 38th in fairways hit, while 2017 winner Jason Dufner was T-7th in fairways hit.  In 2018 Bryson DeChambeau was 4th, while in 2019, Patrick Cantlay was also 4th in driving accuracy.  In 2020, Jon Rahm hit 36 fairways and was T-4th in Driving Accuracy.  In 2021 Patrick Cantlay hit 37 fairways and was T-28th in Driving Accuracy.  Last year Billy Horschel hit 43 fairways and was T-7th in Driving Accuracy.
• In its 47-year history, there have been 9 playoffs. The last time there was a playoff was in 2021, when Patrick Cantlay beat Collin Morikawa with a par on the first extra hole.  Now between 1976 and 2013, the tournament saw only four playoffs; the previous was in 1992 when David Edwards beat Rick Fehr on the second hole.  Since then, every Memorial except for three (2005, ’07, and ’11) has been won by at least two shots or more.

Active tournaments that have the least amount of playoffs since 1976:

• 5 – Players championship
• 6 – Arnold Palmer Invitational
• 8 – Shriners Hospital
• 8 – John Deere Classic
• 9 – Honda Classic
• 9 – Memorial

Only eleven times in the history of the Memorial has a player shot four rounds in the 60s, with eight of them winning. The last time it happened was in 2019 when Patrick Cantlay did it. Before that, Byeong Hun An did it in 2018. Before that, Steve Stricker did it in 2011, but the last time that happened before that was in 2005 when Bart Bryant prevailed.

Last, we have to talk about the weather.  This tournament has always had its share of severe weather.  I remember when I use to attend this event between 1988 and 2003, one year Barbara Nicklaus hired an Indian chief to do dances to avoid bad weather.  This year the weather will be perfect, something that rarely happens in this event.