BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It seems that this is the new direction of the USGA. The USGA is a different organization from a few years back, with Michael Whan taking over. We are now seeing a new direction for the USGA; over the last few years, the USGA has tried new courses like Chamber Bay, Erin Hills, and Torrey Pines. In the case of Erin Hills and Torrey Pines, the decision was motivated by money; they could pack in more people and hospitality tents on the grounds. But if you look at future venues, all of them are established U.S. Open venues. The only one holding the Open for the first time is Los Angeles Country Club, and it won’t have the same problems that Chambers Bay, Erin Hills, or Torrey Pines had. L.A. Country Club is an old fashion gem of a course that has never allowed any events to be played on it since the 50s. But they are now ready to open the course up, and that is the reason it’s going to be played on. Trust me when I say it’s a great course; players will love it.

This week will be a bit strange due to the LIV news, but once balls are in the air on Thursday, it will be all about the golf. The course is perfect, and we should see an ideal championship this week.

So who will win is the million-dollar question. I can unofficially say this when a course holds a major for the first-timer, it gets a good winner. Look at TPC Harding Park for the 2020 PGA; Collin Morikawa won. In the 2017 PGA, Justin Thomas won at Quail Hollow.   Like the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills, Brooks Koepka won. Jordan Spieth won Chambers Bay for the 2015 U.S. Open and the 2012 PGA played at Kiawah, won by Rory McIlroy. Vijay Singh won the 2004 PGA played at Whistling Straits, and Vijay again at Sahalee for the 1998 PGA.

One last thing about this week that shows more parity. This year there are 47 U.S. Open rookies, the same as last year at Brookline. In 2021 at Torrey, there were 43. In 2020 at Winged Foot, there were 39, the same number that played Pebble in 2019, but we have seen more. In 2018, 50 of the 156 players were U.S. Open rookies. This number seems remarkable until you realize it’s par for the U.S. Open. In 2017 there were 52 U.S. Open rookies; in 2016, there were 51; in 2014, there were 53 rookies. All of these are extraordinary numbers. In the history of the U.S. Open, the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919. That was the first Open played after World War I, and the field increased in size. If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.

Looking at the U.S. Opens since 1970, the most first-timers were 53 in 1977, 1980, and 2011. Why the change is a mystery, but one thing is for sure, there are more players with a chance of winning this year.

Championship information:

The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open and the inaugural U.S. Amateur were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on Oct. 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf and Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Open was somewhat overshadowed by the first U.S. Amateur tournament, played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. The small field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, two days of 36-holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia, won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive an entry into the field.

In 1926, the format for the tournament was again switched. Players would play 72 holes, 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time and broadcast on national television. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. But it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that would catapult “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from the three-day, 72-hole format to the current, four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst as he went on to play, arguably, the three most significant weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino captured the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino and the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, upstart cable channel ESPN was broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole.  Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’s victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach.  First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the great courses in the world that comprised the beauty of an oceanside course that stunned the viewers and fans but on a tough course in which wind played an important factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par.  The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:

• Los Angeles, Ca.
• 7,421 yards
• Par will be 35 – 35  = 70

Based on the course setup for the championship, the Course Rating is 75.7. Its Slope Rating is 143.

USGA Championships held at LACC

• 1930 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Glenna Collett (Vare) def. Virginia Van Wie, 6 and 5
• 1954 U.S. Junior Amateur: Foster Bradley def. Allen Geiberger, 3 and 1
• 2017 Walker Cup Match: USA def. Great Britain and Ireland, 19-7

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Los Angeles Country Club

The U.S. Open is going to Los Angeles Country Club for the first time. Of all the great courses to hold a major, one of the last ones to open up its doors is LACC. As we discussed in our prelude, the USGA has worked to get this gem on the schedule for decades. Between a snooty and older membership with different priorities, the club was very picky about who they took in as members and to guard their privacy. Showing how different they thought, in the 1950s, they agreed to host the 1954 Junior Amateur, followed by the 1956 U.S. Amateur. But the membership didn’t like the 3,500 outsiders roaming their fairways, and the horrified membership said no, the ’56 Amateur.
Things opened up in the late 90s as members became younger, and they wanted to show off their playground. In the 70 years since the course opened in 1928, it lost some of its luster that architect George Thomas built into it. Greens shrunk and lost some of its great hole locations. The barranca that ran through the course lost its rustic luster when they were grassed over and just became part of the fairways. Bunkers got shallowed and became easier to get out of. Trees grew and became hazards, and the shade created grass not to develop correctly. But the biggest problem, the fairways lost their lines, and thanks to over-irrigation, the fairways lost the rough that bordered them and became just one big strip of lush fairways. Since the membership was much older, having a course that lost its character and was much easier to play became desirable.
So when membership and leadership changed, they decided they wanted the original rustic course George Thomas built in the 1920s. They did their homework and called several architects who made bids based on how they felt the future of the course would be. The best of the presentations was by Gil Hanse, who got the job of renovating the old dame.
Hanse didn’t hold back as he changed all the greens, bunkers, and tees. He also brought the fairways back to the way Thomas originally built them to have a distinction between fairway and rough. Hanse also restored the barrancas, which come into play on 8 holes (2,3,4,5,7,8 & 17). Hanse made them now play as a hazard by allowing scrubs to grow and unkempt sand. Hanse worked hard to restore the greens to the way Thomas built them, and he put the bit back into the bunkers, making them hazards again. The most important aspect of the renovation was giving the course that rustic look it had lost. Tees were added to make the course in step with technology, making the course more challenging and ready for professional golfers.
The course was chosen to debut at the 2017 Walker Cup and then granted not only the 2023 U.S. Open but return in 2039.
So what does this mean for you trying to make some picks? The course is entirely unknown to most of the 156 competitors. We honestly don’t know how it will play. The course is being set up more in the style like it is being played on a links course like Shinnecock. The one aspect that we know is the winner will be a player that hits it a long way. Yes, a bomber will win. The fairways are going to be drastically wider than most U.S. Opens. Another problem is the Bermuda rough, the first time being used since Bermuda was the rough at 2004 Open at Pinehurst. May was not only cool with a marine layer (The course is seven miles from the Pacific), but the sun didn’t come out that much, and Bermuda needs sun and heat to grow correctly. So the rough may not be the way the USGA wants it. So off the bat, you have to feel that ten players have a drastic advantage. Those players include Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Viktor Hovland, and defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick.
Now we can’t say that everyone is going to bomb away. On several of the holes, you have to hit a drive in the perfect place to set up your shot to the green. Then we have to wonder how those with solid iron play will do. Those players include Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, and Luke List. Hitting greens will be easy; the greens average 7,000 square feet. But the greens have different shapes, and on some holes like par 3, and 15th, the green is very long and pear-shaped. The big question is whether a great putter can overcome a weak tee-to-green game. I don’t think that is possible; players like Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Denny McCarthy, Taylor Montgomery, Sam Burns, and Jason Day will have to be at least proficient from tee to green, but if a good putter can find ways of getting it up and down on greens missed, they could do well.

So with that said, how can we judge this course? First, we will do something we have done in other major courses to pick our four key stats. We are going to use strictly strokes gained stats. Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. With wider fairways and the course being played over 7,420 yards, this is a bomber’s course. However, missing fairways will have a different realm of penalizing a player.
Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you must make sure to hit the greens. Our third stat is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green because players will miss greens, and to win, they will have to get it up and down. Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because that will be very important for players this week.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: Takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Number of strokes gained from shots around the green. Lot of it is scrambling and bunker play..

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

83 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023. Remember, there are a lot of foreign players, LIV players in the field, plus 19 amateurs without stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the Key fantasy stats for the U.S. Open

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2022 Calendar year and going through the 2023 Canadian Open (We don’t include team events), a total of 72 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least nine events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,400
• Jon Rahm – $11,100
• Brooks Koepka – $10,800
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,300
• Viktor Hovland – $10,000
• Rory McIlroy – $9,900
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Max Homa – $9,400
• Collin Morikawa – $9,300
• Jordan Spieth – $9,200
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,100
• Cameron Smith – $9,000

Powerful field on a course we don’t know much about; picks will be interesting this week. Now the difference with this week is the course. Los Angeles Country Club is a big mystery for most players since it hasn’t had a U.S. Open or any other professional event in decades. Maverick McNealy, Cameron Champ, Collin Morikawa, and Scottie Scheffler played in the 2017 Walker Cup held at LACC, so they know how the course will play over championship conditions.   But for the others, they will find a really tough course because of the nature of the course. In a way, it’s close to a links-style course, so those that played well in the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills and the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills will find LACC to their liking.

In looking at the PGA Tour, those that played at the Valero Texas Open, Valspar, and Players will find LACC similar. Also, look seriously at how a player did the last two weeks to see if they have any form coming into this week.

The DraftKings favorite is Scottie Scheffler at $11,400.  Of anyone on Tour, he is playing the most consistently. He has made 19 straight cuts and has only been out of the top 15 once. He was T-5th, T-2d, T-3rd, and 3rd in his last five starts. So yes, he is playing great, and that is with a balky putter. He hasn’t putted well since winning the Players, but still, his ball striking is so superior you know he will finish in the top five at LACC. Jon Rahm, at $11,100, is also playing well, not as good as Scottie, but doing ok; the only problem is his last two starts weren’t great, and we have to go on the fact that LACC is right up Rahm’s alley, and he will do well. My choice this week is Brooks Koepka at $10,800. He was one of my top-three picks at the Masters and PGA Championship and came through in both. As we have said, LACC will play much like Shinnecock and Erin Hills, places Koepka has won on. So bet on him; he will do great. Patrick Cantlay, at $10,300, is easy to take, but I will be careful with him. He struggled to a 74-78 weekend at the Memorial and struggled in two rounds at the PGA Championship. Cantlay is not at his best on links-style courses, so I have to take a pass on him. At $10,000, Viktor Hovland is hotter than a pistol; he was T-2nd at the PGA Championship and won the Memorial. I can see him contending this week; I don’t see him winning. I have to think that for Rory McIlroy, $9,900 is a bit of a gamble. He has played well, with three top-ten finishes in a row. The only problem is that McIlroy can’t close the deal, which seems more burdensome for him. Of course, Rory has a lot on his shoulders with this Saudi merger with the tour, and I can’t see him escaping the media scrutiny, so it’s best to pass on him. Xander Schauffele, at $9,600, is worth the price, and he is playing well. Have to think it’s just a matter of time; he plays his best on demanding courses so that anything can happen to him. Max Homa at $9,400 is a hard choice. We know he plays well in California and does have a history at LACC, shooting a 61 in a college match. But Scottie Scheffler also won at Southern Hills in college and shot 61, but he missed the cut last year during the PGA Championship. So don’t hang your hat on the fact that Homa played well years ago at LACC. Probably best to take a pass on him. While we are at it, taking a pass on both Collin Morikawa at $9,300 and Jordan Spieth at $9,200. Both have medical issues, and it’s best to forget about both of them. Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,100 is a good choice, he has played well since winning the Heritage, but still, I think there are better choices. Usually, I would say no to Cameron Smith at $9,000; he is not great on tight courses. But for LACC, I can see him playing well; he was T-4th in the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, a links-style course. Wide fairways of LACC are Smith’s friend.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Could Tyrrell Hatton at $8,900, be the Matt Fitzpatrick of this year?  Hatton has played well all year, and he did finish T-6th at Shinnecock in 2018, so he is a very good pick.  Normally I would say no to Tony Finau at $8,800, but he played well at Shinnecock and Torrey Pines, but he has been up and down all year.  Dustin Johnson at $8,300, is an automatic pick, I think LACC is right up his alley, and he will contend.  Jason Day at $8,100 was my choice a month ago.  He finally won at the Byron Nelson, and everything was looking up until he bruised a bone in his wrist.  Since then has missed the cut at the PGA and Memorial.  When he be better by this week?  Have my doubts.  How about Cameron Young at $8,000?  His game should be perfect for LACC, yes, his game has not been great since the Masters, but I see him turning it around this week.  Tommy Fleetwood at $7,900 is a good bet, he was beaten by the sentimental favorite in Canada, but I see his good play continuing this week.  Justin Rose at $7,700 is another great buy, his game has been good all year, and I feel he has one big win left inside of him.  Rickie Fowler at $7,500, is a very good pick. Unfortunately, I said that at the PGA Championship, and he missed the cut.  But he has been great in his last 17 starts and has finished in the top 20 12 times.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the U.S. Open

Hard to find “bargains” at the U.S. Open but here is a couple.  Not a big fan of Patrick Reed, but at $7,500, he is hard to pass up.  He was T-18th at the PGA Championship and T-4th at the Masters.  Si Woo Kim at $7,300, is someone not to pass up on; he has struggled at the U.S. Open but feels that LACC will be different.  Eric Cole at $7,000 is too good to pass up on.  His game has been impressive since losing the playoff at the Honda Classic, he is worth the price.  Another player I am not a fan of right now is Phil Mickelson, who is just $7,000, and LACC is just like Kiawah, his last great victory.  Have to say, like the game of Sam Bennett, and at $6,500 is too good to pass up.  He has been very impressive in 2023.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

• Since 1960 only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory; Jack Nicklaus in 1962; Lee Trevino in 1968; Orville Moody in 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993; Retief Goosen in 2001; Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010. But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open, and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world. Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot worldwide, especially in Europe.   So of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but wasn’t that great of a player. The point is to look for a big name to win the U.S. Open.
• So could that open the door for another first-time winner? Probably not; of the 47 first-timers, I don’t see one that could win; lots of good players and prospects for the future but no winners this week.
• 13 years ago, the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell. Since then, the floodgates have opened as other Europeans like Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Jon Rahm in 2021, and Matt Fitzpatrick last year. With the course so hard, don’t be surprised if another European wins this year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• So what will it take to win at Los Angeles Country Club?
• The primary key is being great with the driver, a combination of driving it straight and long. Success is hitting off fairway grass; if you’re in the rough, you’re asking for trouble.
• If you are in the rough and your ball is deep, forget the ego trip, grab a wedge, and gauge it back into the fairway. Those that gamble from the rough bring double bogey or worst into play.
• Not only is it essential to put your next shot from the fairway on, but also make sure to put it on the right side of the hole. The greens have lots of undulation, and if you are on the wrong side, the putt is nearly impossible. Keeping it on the right side makes life a lot easier.
• For this week, par is the player’s best friend. LACC is long when you consider there are five par 3s, but a tedious battle in which boredom can spell disaster, so make sure to play for par, and even though birdies are hard to come by, you can still make them.
• Weather for this week won’t be a problem, but we could get a lot of June gloom, the marine layer off the Pacific. But no rain or wind is in the forecast.
• Experience and getting to know the course are essential. Caddies always are important for players, but this week will be more critical in helping players judge not only the shots into the green but helping with breaks on the greens.
• Another essential thing to remember about LACC is to have a lot of patience. Each week, these players compete in an environment where you make a birdie every fourth hole or five to six times a round. There are only one easy par 5s at LACC (The 1st). But the course does have three par 4s under 410 yards, so birdies could be made, and who knows, maybe with good conditions, the sixth hole could be drivable. Still, it will be hard to make birdies, and the players must be happy with a bunch of pars.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?

• A lot depends on whether the pin is tucked away close to a bunker or hard to get close. It’s always important to remember the undulations of the greens, and players will have to consider that when preparing for a shot. One problem players will love is that there aren’t any blind shots at LACC, which is a bonus. A player has to be smart; there is a lot of danger around the greens, so you have to make sure a shot is to the correct part of the fairway to give you proper access. The greens will also be challenging (unless rain makes them too soft), so many shots won’t hold them and roll off into a tricky situation. Sometimes getting it up and down from rough off the grass will be hard, the same with greenside bunkers; they won’t be easy to get up and down from. I think that a person that scrambles well will be the winner this week.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?

No.

• In the past 33 years, it’s been won by grinders like defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick along with Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell. They may not look pretty at times but knows how to place shots in the right spots. There have been your off-the-wall winners like Bryson DeChambeau and superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win. It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major. It’s been won by up-and-coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen, and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006.
• Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, like Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin? It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least, the stray qualifier like Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, and Michael Campbell in 2005, who contemplated not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before. How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover, you show me a person with a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket. In the past Opens, we said that it was a wide-open field. But I feel that only the best will contend this week.