BlogRocket Mortgage Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So for the next three weeks, we are in a period with no designated events and the emphasis on players getting into the top-70 and retaining their PGA Tour cards for 2024.  The next big event is the Scottish Open in three weeks, followed by the British Open.  After a two-week stint for the 3M and Wyndham Championship.

Over the course of the last three weeks, we have seen some great stories of events won by guys nobody thought about.  At the Canadian Open, it was a Canadian, Nick Taylor, that won his national championship, becoming the first to do it in 69 years since Pat Fletcher won in 1954.  Taylor went into the event after missing two cuts at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab and despite a first-round 75, got his game together to shoot 67-63-66 and then beat Tommy Fleetwood in a four-hole playoff.  The next week we had the feel-good story on Wyndham Clark, who was a 100 to 1 shot winner.  Clark fell in love with Los Angeles Golf Club when he played a practice round the week before, and everything fell into place.  But more importantly, he showed a special funk to endure all the pressure of playing in the last group at the U.S. Open and playing his best.  Will Clark be a factor in the future?  We don’t know, but if he can bottle up the way he has played in the last three months, he can do great things.  Last week at the Travelers, we saw Keegan Bradley win.  Bradley was born and raised in neighboring Vermont, and the Travelers was the first event he ever attended as a junior.  Even though he lives in Jupiter, Florida, the Northeast holds a special place in his heart, and it was a good win for him.

So what good-feel story is ahead of us for the Rocket Mortgage?  Last year we saw Tony Finau win in back-to-back weeks after playing very inconsistently before.  So who could be this week’s breakout story?

Could this be the week that Rickie Fowler finally breaks through and end his four-year win drought.  Fowler has struggled, but since going back to Butch Harman a year ago, his game has gotten more balanced and consistent.  He did finish T-2nd last October at the Zozo Championship.  Since the Players Championship, he has played in ten events and has finished in the top 20 in nine of them and four top-ten finishes.  He was in the position to win the U.S. Open but faltered to a 75 on Sunday to finish T-5th.  He played well at the Travelers, finishing T-13th, and in the third round, he shot 60.  Fowler does not have a stellar record at the Rocket Mortgage, his best finish was T-12th in 2020.  But he can surprise us all this week by finally getting a win.  Another person to watch is Justin Thomas, who has struggled since winning the PGA Championship last year.  Yes, Thomas finished 3rd at last year’s Canadian Open and T-5th at the Tour Championship.  This year he only has one top-8 finish, a 4th at Phoenix, and after missing the cut at Memorial and the U.S. Open, shot a second-round 62 to finish T-9th at the Travelers.  For Thomas, this is his first appearance at the Rocket Mortgage, and the course should be good for him.

The Rocket Mortgage has a short four-year history, and we haven’t seen a person dominate it.  The closest is Troy Merritt, who finished T-14th last year, T-2nd in 2021, and T-8th in 2020.  But Merritt has a terrible year, only making six cuts in 22 starts.  Showing how really dire his year has been, in the last 15 starts, he has only made one cut, and that came at the Zurich team event.  So going into this week, we can honestly say he is a person to watch, but again maybe the course has some karma for him.

Two other players to watch that are not on anyone’s radar screen are Ludvig Aberg and Tom Kim.  Both have played great of late and could surprise us this week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

One thing for people to be aware of was the terrible weather that hit the course late Sunday.  A terrible storm with wins of 70-80 mph hit the area and course and a lot of trees blow down.  Luckily no trees that could have hurt the stands or the practice area were affected, and the course was closed on Monday for clean-up.  There are forecasted to be more storms in the coming days. Again, it boils down to a degree of luck at what happens.  But the course will be moist for the beginning of the event and hopefully dry out for the weekend.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic

This was a tournament that had been in the making for over a decade.  Between 1958 and 2009, the Detroit area had the Buick Open, which was played at Warwick Hills Golf and Country Club in Grand Blanc, about an hour from Detroit.  It was a great event that was well supported but was in the wrong place at the wrong time with sponsors that had major problems.  With the auto industry caving in with the global financial meltdown in 2008, the area was dying quickly.  Not only was the auto industry in need of a federal bailout, but those associated with the auto industry was also struggling, and the community was struggling with tens of thousands losing their job.  So corporate dollars disappeared as Michigan was trying to survive.

So the Buick Open died on the vine, the last one was played in 2009 with Tiger Woods winning, but a couple of folks associated with Detroit Golf Club saw the dream of having the PGA Tour return and play at Detroit Golf Club.

Those folks worked hard to find a sponsor and get the PGA Tour interested in returning to Michigan.  While this was happening, Detroit Golf Club went through several renovation projects to modernize the course and make it worthy of hosting the best professionals in golf.  While they were working on the club, the PGA Tour checked in and liked what they were doing, and around 2016, they said that the course and the area were worthy of a PGA Tour event.  But just getting the PGA Tour to approve it didn’t mean they would get a tournament.  They needed two things first, a heavy-duty sponsor willing to commit over $12 million to the cause, and they had to find an open date, which was just as hard to obtain as a sponsor.  The folks from Detroit weren’t the only ones looking for a date, there were groups from Minnesota, St. Louis, Denver, and the Seattle area also looking for the same thing.

What happened was a stroke of luck for the folks at Detroit Golf Club.  Quicken Loans was sponsoring Tiger Woods Washington D.C. event, but since Quicken Loans was based in Detroit, they were looking to move to a tournament into their home base.  So the PGA Tour did some match-making and put the folks of Detroit Golf Club with the folks of Quicken Loans, and the decision was made two years ago to utilize the date of the Washington D.C. tournament to Detroit.  When the Woods folks couldn’t secure a sponsor, the event was dead in D.C. and basically moved to Detroit.

Now when people think about Detroit, they don’t associate having a golf tournament in a city that has been ravished with problems.  But the area is improving, more non-auto industry money is moving in, and Detroit is improving.  And they do love their golf, and last year they sold out all days of the Rocket Mortgage and ran a very successful tournament.

To show how solid this event is, in 2020, when the tour was shut down for two months, this event was in danger of not happening.  But in May of 2020, as the tour could get started again in June, the Tour got together with the folks that ran the Rocket Mortgage.  Tournament officials didn’t want to lose the momentum that was built in the first year, but at the same time realized the problems of having a tournament with no fans, which meant less for their charity.  The PGA Tour gave them the choice of holding the tournament or taking the year off, and they decided to hold the event.  At the same time, they decided to change the charity structure to one in which Detroit residents gained access to technology, internet, and digital-literacy resources, something that the city needed.  With the new plan, Rocket Mortgage kicked in more money, and they had a worthwhile project.

So even with the pandemic and the event not having any paying customers, the second Rocket Mortgage Classic was able to raise more than $2.7 million for local charities.  So we can see this event will be around for a while.

Course information:

• Detroit Golf Club
• Detroit, Mich.
• 7,370 yards     Par 36-36–72

The Detroit Golf Club started in 1899 when a six-hole course was built.  In 1914 the club bought a large parcel of land and hired Donald Ross, at the time an up-and-coming golf architect, to build two 18-hole courses.  In 1916 the new courses were open for play.  At the time of opening, the club hired Albert Kahn to build them a clubhouse, and he built one of the grandness buildings that opened in 1918 and today is a landmark building.

In the beginning, it was the place to play, Henry Ford became a member in 1915, his son joined, and other dignitaries of Detroit joined.  Ross’ brother Alec who won the 1907 U.S. Open, was the club’s first head professional and was at the club between 1918 and 1945.  He was replaced by Horton Smith, who won the first two Masters and was the club’s pro until his death in 1963.  He was replaced by another PGA tour player, Detroit native Walter Burkemo.  After him, George Bayer was the pro, in the 50s and 60s, Bayer won on the PGA Tour and was considered the longest hitter of the day.

When it was determined in 2006 that the Detroit Golf Club wanted a PGA Tour event, they accessed the course and realized that the course needed to be updated to create a challenge for the best players in the world.  So the club approved changes to be made in four stages in 2006, 2010, 2012, and 2014.  They decided not to change the character of the two Donald Ross courses but hired Bruce Hepner to update the course.  At the end of the day, very little was needed on the North Course, which will use 17 of its holes for the Rocket Mortgage.  The 3rd hole will use the 1st hole of the South course, so technically, it will be a composite course.

The course is famous for its tree-lined fairways, but the greens are what get most of the attention.  They average 5,500 square feet, so they are small by PGA Tour standards and have 41 of the courses and 87 bunkers protecting them.  What makes the greens hard is the undulations, along with the fact that many of the greens are tiered with different levels making it important the put your shot to the green in the right position.  Another problem for the players, a lot of the greens are raised, so if a green is missed, it means a pitch is in order instead of chipping the ball, again, another skill set that isn’t practiced very much.  The course is tree-lined but, for the most part, has generous fairways to hit.  The Detroit area has had an abundance of rain in the last month, so not only is the course very lush, but the rough has had time to grow and become very lush, making it hard to get some shots to the green.  The course did go through an upgrade in the last decade to make it harder for PGA Tour caliber players, but with straight holes, most of the long-hitters have a chance to overpower the course.

The course will be in its fourth year, and players now know a lot about it.  Tournament officials in 2020 decided to make the course tougher by letting the rough grow. Hopefully, this will make it tougher this year.  Still, in the minds of half the field, the course will be fresh and new, this will continue to help those players whose game may not be sharp coming into the tournament.

Many wondered after the first year if the course would be perfect for the long hitters, probably since its length at 7,340 is a bit short, but with straight fairways that had limited rough, the only true hazard was the 30 fairway bunkers, and in most cases, they are shallow and will be easy to get out of.  Still, just like last year when Cam Davis surprised the golf world by winning and in 2020 when Bryson DeChambeau overpowered the course.  But there is always that mystic in which the winner could be the player you least expect who is on the cusp of finding their game-winning, as Nate Lashley did in 2019.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Detroit Golf Club.

This is based on the most vital stats from Detroit Golf Club, data from last year’s Rocket Mortgage, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
In all four years that the Rocket Mortgage Classic has been played at Detroit Golf Club, the PGA Tour has been very careful in setting up the tournament. In the four years, the course played overly fair. In 2019, it had a scoring average of 70.11 and was the 42nd hardest (out of 49th) course on tour. In 2020 Detroit Golf Club played just about identically to a 70.05 average and was the 38th hardest (out of 41 courses). In 2021 it played a bit tougher, at 70.55, as it ranked the 40th toughest course out of the 51 ranked courses. Last year it played a notch easier, at 70.40, as it ranked 38th toughest course out of the 50 ranked courses. So in some respects, the tour has allowed the scoring, but it’s not like they are ripping up the course, yes, in the four years, the lowest score is 63, shot twice in 2019 and in 2021 and twice in 2022. In 2021, 63 was shot by Davis Thompson, who was the first-round leader but went on to finish T-58th. Last year 63 was shot in the 2nd round by Cameron Young, who went on to finish T-2nd. Tom Kim shot 63 in the final round to finish 7th.
In 1,826 total rounds, 65 or less has only been shot 55 times, 16 times in 2022, so the course has some bite. The rough has inched up higher each year, again, it will be high for the fourth year in a row. Last year the weather was hard with high temperatures and high wind. The course played harder as the fans and grandstands were back, making it harder. This year will be easier due to weather conditions. Each day will be in the mid-80s, with winds in the 9 mph range. Rain has hit the area the last week, so the course won’t be bone dry like it was last year, greens will be easier to hold, and fairways will have very little run as drives won’t run into the rough as past years when it was bone dry. So the conditions could make the course play easier than in past years.

The big question will there be another birdie fest? In 2019 1,895 birdies were made on the course. In 2020, 1,887 birdies were made. in 2021 1,740 birdies were made, a bit less, but still, only seven courses on the tour had more birdies. The most were 2,007 at TPC Craig Ranch. Last year 1,822 birdies were made as only six courses had more birdies made on their course, again, TPC Craig Ranch had the most birdies made with 2,228.

In looking at our four categories, we have to think very differently because the nature of Detroit Golf Club is an old, tested venue. First, we will use Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee and accuracy. Last year the average drive was 302.3 yards and ranked 33rd. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 33rd with 62.48% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner Tony Finau, he ranked 14th in driving distance and 3rd in accuracy and was 2nd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. In 2021 winner Cam Davis, ranked 28th in driving distance and T-29th in accuracy and was 34th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. The year before, Bryson DeChambeau ranked 1st in driving distance and T-58th in accuracy and was 1st in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. In 2019 Nate Lashley ranked 44th in Driving Distance and T-11th in Accuracy, so he ranked T-29th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a Donald Ross course, so we know that Ross greens are always hard to hit. On top of that, the greens are also small at 5,100 and are raised, so they are tough to get on. So for last year, Detroit Golf Club was ranked 40th in Greens hit with a 71.85% average. As for last year’s winner Tony Finau, he was 1st hitting 66 of 72 greens. In 2021, the champion Cam Davis hit 55 of 72 greens and ranked T-24th. The previous year the course ranked 35th, and the winner, DeChambeau hit 56 of the 72 greens and ranked T-13th. In 2019 the course was 40th on tour, with 72.52% of the greens hit. The winner Lashley hit 59 of 72 for 84.94%, which ranked T-4th. Ted Potter, Jr. hit the most greens, 61 of the 72, and finished T-5th.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, which is an important part of the game. Last year, the putting average at Detroit Golf Club was 1.635, ranking 15th. It averaged 29.43 putts per round, ranking 15th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 18th. Our 2022 champion Tony Finau took 119 putts which ranked T-52nd, and in Strokes Gained Putting, was 15th. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Finau made 61 of 70 putts and ranked 53rd. In 2021, the putting average at Detroit Golf Club was 1.639, ranking T-12th. It averaged 29.50 putts per round, ranking 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 21st. Our 2021 champion Cam Davis took 112 putts which ranked T-12th, and in Strokes Gained Putting was 22nd. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Davis made 65 of 73 putts and ranked 38th. In 2020 the putting average at Detroit Golf Club was 1.631, which ranked 13th. It averaged 29.36 putts per round, ranking 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 7th. DeChambeau took 111 puts which ranked T-7th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 1st. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, DeChambeau made 63 of 68 and ranked T-4th. In 2019 the course was 1.629 in putting, which ranked T-17th. It averaged 29.33 putts per round, ranking it T-15th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 17th. Lashley took 106 putts, ranked 2nd, and Strokes Gained Putting was also 2nd. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Lashley made 64 of 68 and ranked 4th.
The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,822 birdies were made last year, in 2021, 1,740 birdies were made, in 2020, 1,887 were made, and in 2019, 1,895 birdies were made on the course. It had a total of 50 eagles last year, 23 eagles the year before, 42 eagles in 2020, and 40 eagles in 2019. So last year, the course ranked 34th in Par Breakers last year, it ranked 25th in Par Breakers in 2021, 35th in 2020, and 38th in 2019. Last year Finau had 27 birdies which were T-2nd and T-2nd in Par Breakers. The year before, Cam Davis had 23 birdies, T-2nd, and was T-1st in Par Breakers. In 2020 DeChambeau had 27 birdies, the 2nd best of the field, and was 2nd in Par Breakers. In 2019 Lashley made the most birdies of anyone in the field, 28, so his Par Breakers rank is 1st. In a way, we can see that Par Breakers was important in the winner’s stats at the Rocket Mortgage.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Combination of distance off the tee and accuracy.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 131 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2023.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats of the players at the Rocket Mortgage

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $10,900
• Collin Morikawa – $10,600
• Rickie Fowler – $10,400
• Max Homa – $10,200
• Justin Thomas – $10,000
• Tom Kim – $9,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,600
• Sungjae Im – $9,400
• Cam Davis – $9,300
• Keegan Bradley – $9,200

Tony Finau at $10,900 is a fair price, even though I think the price is way too high.  First, he has only played the event twice, and in his first go-around was T-53rd.  He hasn’t played well since winning at Mexico last April.  So I am very hesitant to spend such a big amount of money on him.  Collin Morikawa at $10,600 is ludicrous.  He has never played in this event, and despite making cuts, his results have been borderline.  If Morikawa were valued at $8,000, I would consider him, but not at the level he is now.  Rickie Fowler at $10,400, is very high priced, but he has been producing good numbers and is a threat this week.  I also can’t understand how they value Max Homa at $10,200.  In three starts at Rocket Mortgage, his best finish is T-24th.  Despite a T-8th at Wells Fargo and T-9th at Colonial, his game has not been good as he has missed four cuts in his last seven starts, so he is a no.  Justin Thomas at $10,000 is a lot of money for a guy that has played terribly of late and never played in the event.  But he is Justin Thomas, and can find his game in a heartbeat.  He showed that promise by finishing the Travelers with scores of 64-62-67, so yes, he is worth looking at.  Tom Kim at $9,800 is a lot but for him worth the cost.  His game was better than his T-38th finish at the Travelers.  He was ten under for the week despite playing the 7th, 10th, 11th, and 12th holes in ten over par.  If he could have gotten them in even par, he would have been the same as Bradley.  So look for him to get better this week.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,600 is again a stretch since we don’t know how pain-free he is.  DraftKings is basing his price on him finishing T-13th at the Travelers, but he has been mediocre at best in the Rocket Mortgage, in three starts best finish was T-13th in 2019.  Sungjae Im at $9,400 is a thought, he was T-8th at the Rocket Mortgage in 2021.  But have to beware of the fact that he hasn’t played great since the T-8th at Wells Fargo.  I would say save your money.  Cam Davis at $9,300, may have been the winner in 2021, but after finishing T-4th at the PGA Championship has missed the cut in three of his four starts.  Keegan Bradley at $9,200 is a thought after winning the Travelers.  But I have to say, no other than a T-14th in the 2021 Rocket Mortgage, I think last week took too much out of him.  Sorry to say of all these folks in this category, the only one I feel confident in taking is Justin Thomas and Tom Kim.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Brian Harman at $8,800, is the type of player who could win this week.  I know that he has missed the cut twice at the Rocket Mortgage, but he plays well on hard courses and is T-2nd last week at the Travelers shooting 64-64 over the weekend.  We are all pretty intrigued by Ludvig Aberg, who will cost $8,700 this week.  He was T-25th in Canada and T-24th at Travelers, but in both cases, his cost was under $7,500.  Has never played this course but has played ok since turning pro.  Austin Eckroat at $8,000, is a good off-the-wall pick.  Only played once at Rocket Mortgage and missed the cut in 2021.  But has played well of late, making seven straight cuts, including a T-2nd at the Byron Nelson, T-10th at the U.S. Open, and T-24th at Travelers.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Rocket Mortgage

I like Taylor Pendrith at $7,400, he was T-2nd last year at the Rocket Mortgage, and despite missing the cut at the Travelers and U.S. Open think this could be a good week for him.  Doug Ghim at $7,400, is a player not many are familiar with, he has played three times at Rocket and was T-32nd in 2021.  He has played well of late, was T-12th at Canada and T-15th at Travelers.  Alex Noren at $7,300 is a good buy for this week.  He was T-4th at the Rocket Mortgage in 2021 and played well in the last month.  Chez Reavie at $7,200 is good because his game has been on for the last month, including a T-4th last week at the Travelers.  Will Gordon at $7,100, is worth a look, he has been up and down, but maybe he can get something rolling this week.  Carson Young at $7,000, is worth the look because he does make a lot of cuts.  Sam Bennett at $6,900, may have missed the cut at the Travelers but has played well since turning pro.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Rocket Mortgage:

The key stat for the winner:

• Like every other Donald Ross course, a shotmaker will rule.  Those that hit it long and straight will have an advantage, but for a player to win, he has to have pin-point accuracy in shots to the green to put the ball in the right place for that right putt.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• To find that hidden gem, look at those that have played well in the four events since the break and also did well last year at the Rocket Mortgage.
• The player with the least amount of putts in the 3 to 12-foot range will win.  So look for those who are the best on tour making putts inside ten feet.
• In most cases, it will be hard to hit all of the greens, so scrambling will come into play and could save those that aren’t that precise with shots to the green.
• Don’t automatically pick one of the marquee names like Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, or Max Homa. Look for those players whose games have improved in the last couple of weeks, just like Rickie Fowler or Tom Kim.
• The four par 5s are between 552 and 635 yards in length, but only one of the greens is guarded by a lake (14), and since all of them are straightaway, I can see players doing well on them.  Last year’s winner Tony Finau was 12 under.  The same happened with 2021 winner Cam Davis, who was 12 under on them as 4 players were in double digits as the field played the par 5s 535 under par.  In 2020 Bryson DeChambeau won and was 11 under on the par 5s as 8 players were in double digits. In 2019 Nate Lashley was 10 under on them as 15 players were in double digits, as the field was 4.61 on the par 5s, which ranked 26th on tour.
• The weather is going to be good this week