BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

With Ricky Fowler winning the Rocket Mortgage, we have seen a remarkable run of golf. Going back to the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship, 14 weeks ago, everyone that won an event was in the top 90 in the Official World Rankings (not including the Zurich team event in which Nick Hardy was 176th in the rankings when he won). Everyone who won in the last 14 weeks (except for Wyndham Clark, who now has won twice) had previously won on the PGA Tour, and each week has had a lot of excitement. In the 14 events (not including Zurich), five have gone to a playoff, while 3 of them, the winner won by a shot. The only real blow-outs were the Masters (Rahm won by four) and Wells Fargo (Clark won by four). Of the 14 winners, five of them, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, and Keegan Bradley, were winners of majors.

Last week was another example of the good things happening on the PGA Tour this year. Since the start of the season last September in Napa, Fowler was T-6th, and the talk of him breaking his slump started. Since then, Rickie finished in the top-ten seven times, and since his T-6th at the Charles Schwab in May, we have been on Rickie winning watch. His game has regained the same luster it had in his heyday; his putting is the key, as he is 29th in Strokes Gained Putting this year compared to 161st last year. In Greens in Regulation, Fowler is 12th, while in 2022, he was 186th. In Strokes Gained Total, Rickie is 8th this year, while he was 133rd last year. Every part of his game has not only shown improvement over 2022, but in some cases, he is hitting the ball and putting better than he ever has.

The great thing about Rickie winning is the fan base. Of all players in golf, Rickie is the most popular player for those under 16 years old. Kids think he is cool; they love the pastel colors on his clothes, and kids relate to Rickie. For many, it may seem hard to believe, but he turned pro in 2009, almost 14 years ago. He has won six times, and his biggest win has to be the 2015 Players Championship. For me, Rickie reminds me a lot of Fred Couples, who was this great talent but never achieved the greatness many thought he had the knack for. Fred found the comfort of his couch at home watching Sportscenter than winning a major championship. In a way, Rickie is the same way; he has this California laid-back attitude in which he loves golf, but golf is not #1 or #2 or #3 on his list of importance.

Hard to believe he has already played in 316 PGA Tour events and, along with his six wins, has been runner-up 15 times and finished in the top-ten 82 times, or 26% of his starts. In the majors, Rickie has a good record for someone who has never won. In 48 starts, he has been runner-up three times and in the top-ten 13 times.

So what does this win mean? Did Rickie open the floodgates with his Rocket win? Will he win in his next start at the Scottish Open or the week later at the British Open? When Rickie won for the first time at the 2012 Wells Fargo, Rickie was runner-up in his next start at the Players. But Rickie missed the cut in his next two starts after his second win at the 2015 Players Championship. Fowler isn’t one to do a victory lap, but I still expect him to play well in his final starts going into the playoff. Fowler has made it to the Tour Championship six times, with a best finish of T-7th in 2018. Do I expect good things from Rickie, of course? Rickie is a good player, but not great the odds of him making it into the Hall-of-Fame are not good now, but remember, he is only 34 years old. Phil Mickelson was a few months short of his 34th birthday before he won his first major at the 2004 Masters. Phil went on to win six majors and become a player after he was 33, so anything is possible with Rickie.

This week the tour is in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. For the first time since the Mexico Open at the end of April, we can say that this is a week for most marquee players to take the week off and prepare for the British and the FedExCup playoffs. Only nine top-50 ranked players are on the field, but that doesn’t matter for fans in the Davenport Moline communities. For them, the John Deere is their Super Bowl, as the tournament is very well attended by a sponsor that loves the event. No matter who plays, the fans will come out and root for the players, as this event has a good vibe. So this week, it’s about those not in the top 70 and having a good week and getting into the top 70. In looking at a possible winner, it’s hard to predict. Sure, the event has had marquee winners like Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker, but at the same time, nobody thought about J.T. Poston before last year’s John Deere. Poston shot an opening round 62 and never looked back in winning by three shots over Emiliano Grillo and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. So do we look for another out-of-left-field winner like Poston? Or could Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, Eric Cole, or Adam Hadwin win? Will Peter Kuest, who finished T-4th, continue to stay hot and win? I like Emiliano Grillo, who was T-2nd last year at the Deere and has played well of late, winning the Charles Schwab last month. I also think that Denny McCarthy, who was T-6th last year at the Deere and has played well of late, is also one to watch. He is at the same point that Eric Cole is at, very close to winning, and that first one could happen any time, including this week. A couple of other long shots include Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, and Adam Schenk; all three are playing well, with Reavie and Schenk having good finishes at the John Deere. One person we can’t rule out is past champion Lucas Glover, one of the best tee-to-green players on the PGA Tour but also one of the worst putters on the PGA Tour. If the putter gets hot, like last week when he finished T-4th at the Rocket Mortgage, Glover could win a second title at the John Deere. Again remember the golden rule at TPC Deere Run; the venue is one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000 when the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of the TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After an opening round 1-under, Wie was in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day, 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on #15 as she proceeded to pull her drive severely. From there chipped into a bunker and, eventually, made a double bogey. We ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Starting in 2004, the event had been the week before the British Open (except for 2016), making it always a struggle to get a good field of players. Starting last year, it moved two weeks before the British, so the field is less attractive.

TPC Deere Run

• Silvis, Il.
• 7,289 yards     Par 35-36–71
• The course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 from the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.
• Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River, and the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.
• In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near-perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over 100 years.
• TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of ancient philosophy and feels to the golf course, it’s an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 76 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape.  Those bunkers just got a fresh renovation, so they should come more into play this week. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.

The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised, and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.

• In 2022 the TPC Deere Run was the 34th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.88 average.
• In 2021 the TPC Deere Run was the 41st hardest course (out of 51) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.51 average.
• The event in 2020 due to COVID-19
• In 2019 the TPC Deere Run was the 35th hardest course (out of 49) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.51 average.
• In 2018 the TPC Deere Run was the 46th hardest course (out of 51) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.38 average.
• In 2017 the TPC Deere Run was the 38th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.75 average.
• In 2016 the TPC Deere Run was the 39th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.90 average.
• In 2015 the TPC Deere Run was the 43rd hardest course (out of 52) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.648 average.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour, playing to a 69,397.

So the course is easy. In 2015, 1,803 birdies (along with 32 eagles) were made during the week, the 3rd most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour.  Last year 1,802 birdies and 47 eagles were made.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Deere Run.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, data from last year’s John Deere, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run is that it’s one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters, and those that hit it long have no real advantage. Those that hit it long must throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,289 yards, but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of roles. In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two, even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, Michael Kim, Lucas Glover and last year’s champions J.T Poston who ranked 104th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2022. I know the longest golf player Bryson DeChambeau won in 2017, but that was an anomaly.
Lots of birdies are always made on the course; last year, 1,803 were made, with only seven courses seeing more birdies, Detroit G.C., Sedgefield, St. Andrews, Country Club of Jackson, TPC Summerlin, Keene Trace, and TPC Craig Ranch.

The greens are easy to read, and you do well on them, so this course also caters to players who don’t put very well. The tournament is being played two weeks before the British Open, so the course should be firm and fast. Now TPC Deere Run went through a major renovation after the 2021 event. All 80 bunkers were completely rebuilt in the renovation, with four being eliminated. Some other changes stretched the course 21 yards, but the bunker work will make the course a notch tougher. Last year the course played to a 69.88 average, more than a shot over par, as it ranked the 34th hardest course on the PGA tour.
So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those that hit it long, those that hit it short will at least have as much of a chance as the longer hitter. So it’s a perfect time to look at these strokes gained stats as our first three categories: Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, and Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. After that, Strokes Gained Putting is important because this is a course that is easy to putt; there is not much undulation in the greens, so poor putters have a good chance this week. We saw that in J.T. Poston winning last year, he ranked T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting for the year, but for the week at the John Deere, he was 31st. In Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green Poston was 10th, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee was 15th. The year before in winning, Lucas Glover ranked 137th in Strokes Gained Putting, but for the week at John Deere, Glover was 19th. So you can see the combination, short hitters that are poor putters have a great chance this week. Last is the birdie average; those at the top of the list will make many of them, and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy; last year, it played to an average of 69.88 as 1,803 birdies were made. The year before, the scoring average was 69.51, with 1,802 birdies made. So you can see that the winner does need to go low. Normally we would say that a non-marquee name will win, but that isn’t the case. In the last 12 years, we have seen Steve Stricker win three times and Jordan Spieth winning twice, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, and Kenny Perry, so the event has seen some marquee champions. On top of that, 2021 champion Lucas Glover isn’t a slouch; he won the 2009 U.S. Open, while the defending champion J.T. Poston won the 2019 Wyndham on top of the John Deere.
So after weeks of playing on tough courses in the U.S. Open, Canadian Open, Memorial, and the PGA Championship, players get a break, and this week is all about making the most birdies and eagles.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: See who saves the most strokes with the shots into the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

*Birdie average: Calculates how many birdies a player makes per round

Of the 156 players in the field, 121 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2023.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to the rest of the stats for the John Deere

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Denny McCarthy – $10,600
• Russell Henley – $10,400
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,100
• Cameron Young – $10,000
• Adam Hadwin – $9,800
• Eric Cole – $9,700
• Keith Mitchell – $9,600
• Adam Schenk – $9,500
• Taylor Moore – $9,400
• Chris Kirk – $9,300
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,200
• Seamus Power – $9,100
• J.T. Poston – $9,000

Since there aren’t many marquee players, the top players in DraftKings money are those that you least expect. So have to be careful as most of these players do have a high amount of cuts missed. The top dog Denny McCarthy at $10,600, is worth the cost because not only did he finish T-6th in last year’s John Deere. We also forecast that McCarthy could be close to his first win, and this is as good of a place to get it as any place else. The good news in the 11 events he has played in since the Players, he only missed one cut and has eight top-25 finishes, including a runner-up at the Memorial, losing a playoff to Viktor Hovland. Russell Henley, at $10,400, is priced this high because he finished 2nd in the 2019 Deere and T-11th in 2021. He has also played well of late, was T-16th at Colonial and Memorial, and T-14th at the U.s. Open and T-19th at the U.S. Open. Ludvig Aberg at $10,100 has been panned on other sites, and I can understand why. He has made the cut in his last five starts since the Arnold Palmer, but his best finish is T-24th at the Palmer. His cost is too high for what you will get from him, and I agree that he may miss the cut for the first time in 2023. Cameron Young, at $10,000, is also a player to be careful over. We know he has come close several times to win for the first time, and just like with Denny McCarthy, I feel that win will come soon, just not this week. Young has not played well since the Masters, and I think he is putting too poorly to pick him, so skip on Young. Adam Hadwin at $9,800 is a yes in my book. He only played at the Deere three times and was T-8th in 2016. I like him because he has played well since missing the cut at the Heritage. He was T-2nd last week at the Rocket, losing in the playoff to Rickie Fowler. Hadwin has the game for TPC Deere Run. Eric Cole at $9,700 is a big yes,  He is another player who has been close to winning for the first time, and it could happen this week. Not the best off the tee, but an excellent putter who hits many greens. He has played well since missing the cut at Colonial; his only problem is that one poor round that has dragged him down. Look for him to put everything in place this week. Keith Mitchell at $9,600 is a no for me. He was T-7th at the Deere in 2018 and is good off the tee. But he hasn’t played well since the Genesis in February, and I don’t see it coming together this week. Adam Schenk at $9,500 is a maybe for me. He was T-6th in 2019 and T-4th in 2021. My problem with him is one of consistency; sure, he was 7th at the Rocket Mortgage and the Memorial and almost won the Charles Schwab. But he has missed the cut in five of his last eight starts, so it’s feast or famine with him, and his cost is too high to gamble. The same with Taylor Moore at $9,400. He may have finished T-4th last week at the Rocket Mortgage but missed the cut at Colonial, U.S. Open, and the Travelers. The same on Chris Kirk at $9,300; too many missed cuts of late for the high cost he brings. Emiliano Grillo at $9,200 is worth the look at. He was T-2nd at the Deere last year and has played well in the previous two months, including a win at the Charles Schwab. Both Seamus Power at $9,100 and J.T. Poston at $9,000 are big no’s for me. They just haven’t shown much in the last few months.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Stephan Jaeger at $8,700 is worth looking at. He is consistent and has made the cut in his last 13 starts including a T-9th last week at the Rocket Mortgage. Jaeger will not win but can get you a top ten and many points. Patrick Rodgers, at $8,300, is worth looking at. He has played in the John Deere nine times, including a runner-up in 2017. On tour this year has been up and down. I still think he is cheap enough to take and earn some points. Doug Ghim at $8,000 is worth the cost; he has been in the top-33 in his last five starts, his best being T-12th at the Canadian Open. Chez Reavie is priced right at $7,700 because he has played well in his previous six starts including a T-4th at the Travelers. Lots of experience at the Deere was T-5th in 2011.

Some of the “bargains” this week at John Deere

We have to dig for players from this group first, like Will Gordon at $7,300. He has played ok in 2023, and in his one, Deere started finishing T-28th last year. Lucas Glover is a bargain at $7,200. He won the Deere in 2021 and was T-4th last week at the Rocket. Zach Johnson at $7,100 is worth the price, he has played ok in 2023, but you pick him because in 20 John Deere starts, he has made the cut 17 times, so like the odds that he will be around for the weekend. Ryan Moore at $6,900 is a good bet since he has made 12 cuts in 13 John Deere starts, including a win in 2016. S.Y. Noh at $6,800 is also worth looking at; he has made his last seven cuts and made some points.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Gossett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair), 3rd (Michael Kim) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Last year J.T. Poston was T-4th hitting 60 of 72 greens. Yes, Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007, Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013, but Brian Harman was T-1st in 2014 with Jordan Spieth finishing T-33rd in 2015.  In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-1st in greens hit with 60 of 72 while Bryson Dechambau was T-11th in greens hit with 57 of 72 in 2018, Michael Kim was 3rd hitting 60 greens, and in 2019, Dylan Frittelli was T-10th hitting 56 greens.  In 2021 Lucas Glover hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• A stat that nobody will believe: You would be hard-pressed to know how many top-20 world-rank players have won the last 13 John Deere’s.  It’s 6; the only ones not in the top 20 of the world rankings were Jordan Spieth (120th) in 2013, Brian Harman (115) in 2014, Ryan Moore in 2016, who was 59th the week of the Deere and in 2017 with DeChambeau who was 144th, in 2018 Michael Kim (473) and in 2019 with Dylan Frittelli (133).  Last year J.T. entered the John Deere 99th in the rankings, while the year before, Lucas Glover entered the John Deere 115th in the World Rankings.
• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002), Mark Hensby (2004), and Sean O’Hair (2005), this has proven to help in their victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997, all are between the 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011, he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56, while in 2013, Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  In 2014 Brian Harman was T-8th, hitting 45 of 56 fairways. In 2015, Jordan Spieth was 39th of 56 and ranked T-60th. In 2016 Ryan Moore was T-10th hitting 46 of 56 fairways, while in 2017, Bryson DeChambeau was T-32nd hitting 42 of 56, in 2018, Michael Kim was T-2nd hitting 46 of 56, and in 2019, Dylan Frittelli was T-7th hitting 44 of 56.  In 2021 Lucas Glover was T-24th hitting 41 of 56. Last year J.T. Poston also hit 41 fairways and was ranked T-12th.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only 11 players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006, Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011, Brian Harman in 2014, Spieth in 2015, Moore in 2016, Michael Kim in 2018 and J.T. Poston last year.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third-round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.  In 2017 DeChambeau was T-5th, 4 shots back, Michael Kim was the leader by five in 2018 and Dylan Frittelli was T-5th and two back of the leader.  In 2021 Lucas Glover was T-12th, four shots back of third-round leader Sebastian Munoz. So don’t count on the third-round leader to win.
• The myth of the John Deere was to think about an underdog, or a new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007, only one true favorite, Vijay Singh in 2003, was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect, you had marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11, along with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth winning, and in 2017 Bryson DeChambeau.  In 2021 former U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover won.  With no British Open charter, we will see what happens, you wouldn’t call the 2022 champion J.T. Poston a marquee player.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first-time winners.  Since 1973, 23 rookie winners, including eleven of the last 22 years (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013, Brian Harman in 2014 and Bryson DeChambeau in 2017.  Michael Kim continued the streak in 2018, as did Dylan Frittelli in 2019.  But the streak ended with Lucas Glover.  J.T. Poston had one previous win before his victory last year.
• One last essential element, the winner this week will be making lots of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and 2009, along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14 while in 2015 the course gave up 1,803 birdies.  In 2016 1,747 birdies were made, while in 2017, there were 1,805.  In 2018 there were 1,865; in 2019, 1.885, and in 2021, 1,802 were made, so look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.  Last year 1,803 birdies were made.
• The weather will be pretty good for July in Silvis.  Temperatures will be mild at around 80, but it will be humid and expect afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday.