BlogGenesis Scottish Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So for the second time, this event, along with the Barbasol Championship, are co-sanctioned events, in this case of the Scottish Open, which means that 75 players from the PGA Tour can play this week.  As you can see by the strength of the field, this has created a very big field of marquee names, just about every big star except for Jon Rahm is in this year’s field.  There are also a fair amount of marquee players of the DP World Tour competing this week.  As we have seen with the defection of players to the LIVgolf, both the PGA Tour and the European Tour are thinking outside the box.  Now this partnership this week and next happened way before LIVgolf became what it is now, but both tours realize they need to stick together or lose a lot to LIVgolf.

Now because of the merger, the field this week will be the strongest non-major, non-WGC event in DP World Tour history.  It’s a win-win for all, for the American players, this is a great way to get used to playing on a links course as most of them get ready for the British Open next week.

One player looking forward to this week has to be Kurt Kitayama.  Last year was Kitayama’s first year on the PGA Tour, and his 2nd place finish at the Scottish Open helped solidify his place on the PGA Tour.  In 2023 he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which placed him on the golfing map.  A couple of weeks later, he was T-5th at the WGC-Dell Match Play.  But after that, he has struggled, sure he was T-4th at the PGA Championship, but he comes into the Scottish Open off of three missed cuts at the Memorial, U.S. Open, and Travelers.  So he will be trying to get back on track and duplicate and even go one better and win this week.

There are a few players coming into this week on hot streaks.  First is Scottie Scheffler, who has played in 15 events since Kapalua in January and hasn’t finished worst than T-12th.  Since the PGA Championship, Scheffler has a T-2nd at the PGA Championship, T-3rd at Colonial, 3rd at the Memorial and U.S. Open, and T-4th at the Travelers.  Can’t say he is looking forward to this week, his last missed cut came in Memphis, and a few weeks before, he also missed the cut at the Scottish Open.  The good news is that he was T-12th in 2021 at the Renaissance Club, so we expect great things again from Scottie.  Rory McIlroy also comes into this week playing well.  Since the PGA Championship, where he finished T-7th, he was T-7th at the Memorial, T-9th in Canada, 2nd at the U.S. Open, and T-7th at the Travelers.  Now his record at the Renaissance Club is not great.  He didn’t play last year, missed the cut in 2021, and was T-34th in 19th, so buyer beware on him.  There is a lot of buzz on PGA Tour rookie Ludvig Aberg.  Since turning pro he has been T-25th at the Canadian Open, T-24th at the Travelers, T-40th at the Rocket Mortgage, and T-4th at the John Deere. In that span, he is 49 under and is hotter than a pistol right now.

This week will be a good week to see if Wyndham Clark has some staying power or just a fluke of nature.  Think he can be a tremendous player on the PGA Tour, we will get a good look if he can find some of the magic he had at the Wells Fargo and U.S. Open.  Two guys to watch thanks to playing well at the Renaissance Club is defending champion Xander Schauffele, who was T-10th on his first visit in 2021.  Also, watch Tommy Fleetwood, who was 2nd in 2020, T-26th in 2021, and T-4th last year.

But I really like Rickie Fowler.  He is probably playing better than anyone else and I think he will make a run to the title this week.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Course information:

• The Renaissance Club
• North Berwick, Scotland
• 7,293 yards     Par 36-35–71

The Scottish Open returns to The Renaissance Club for a fifth straight year.  The property sits on a bluff overlooking Blackness Bay to the west and the North Sea.  The club sits next to Muirfield on the west, which has been the site of 16 British Opens.  On the east is the 36-hole Archerfield Links.  At one time, the land that the Renaissance Club is on was a portion of the 1000 acres of Archerfield Estate.  Even though the property that Renaissance is on natural windswept dunes, the land has a lot of trees on it.  Britain’s Forestry Commission planted pine and sycamore trees on 300 acres of land, and when it was decided to build the club, they hired fame architect Tom Doak to design the course.  He was tasked with building a course with very little earth moving to showcase the natural features.  The property was completely filled with trees and Doak cleared a portion of them, but still kept a good number and made them part of the design of the course.  In the initial design stage, Muirfield owned the land where the 9th through 13th holes are located.  But the property that the Renaissance Club owned was dense walls of trees next to Muirfield.  In order to gain more protection and protect their boundary Muirfield traded the dunes for a bigger boundary of tree-lined area.  It was a good trade for both clubs but it made it possible for Doaks to design some great holes on the dunes near the sea. The course was built in 2008 but was revised in 2014.  Two-time British Open champion Padraig Harrington helped out as a player consultant to help make the course playable for the Scottish Open.

Now the charm of the course is that it is very playable when the wind doesn’t blow, but when it does, it’s tough.  An example of that, in windless years, the winners played the course in 22 under in 2018 and 18 under in 2021.  But in windy, cold conditions in 2020 (the event was played in October because of COVID) Aaron Rai’s winning score was 11 under par.  Last year in windy conditions the course played tough as Schauffele was 7 under par.  But that is the nature of links golf, in no wind very attainable, but in windy conditions a really tough test.

The key stat for the winner:

A modern links course, the winner will have to be able to play all the shots in any conditions.  In looking at the stats from 2019, ’20, and ’21 the most important stat is not hitting lots of fairways or hitting lots of greens, but putting.  In fairways hit, 2019 champion Bernd Wiesberger ranked T-22, 2020 winner Aaron Rai ranked T-17th, while last year’s winner Min Woo Lee ranked T-56th.  Greens hit was the important, nothing spectacular.  In hitting greens again, not impressive numbers. In 2019, winner Bernd Wiesberger ranked T-21st in greens hit.  In 2020 winner Aaron Rai ranked T-3rd while Min Woo Lee was T-31st in 2021, and Xander Schauffele was   T-5th last year.  So how did these four win?  Putting.  In 2019  Wiesberger ranked T-31st in number of putts.  In 2020 Rai ranked T-31st while Lee was 2nd in 2022.  So the point is, The Renaissance isn’t a course for shotmakers or even bombers.  It’s a course that the average player can do well on, probably the reason its four winners were Bernd Wiesberger, Aaron Rai, Min Woo Lee, and Xander Schauffele.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

This is a course that you can overpower, you have to make sure to keep it in the fairway but they are wide and generous.  The greens are average length and have undulation in them, but they are very fair and aren’t as fast as many American courses.  The fairways at Oakmont could be almost as fast as the greens at The Renaissance, but this isn’t to detract from the course, with the weather conditions, sometimes having fast greens could be unfair.

As of each week, it’s important to look and see who is hot and playing well in the weeks leading to the Scottish Open.

The weather looks like it’s going to be a lot like Scotland, but a bit colder and rain every day.  Looking at the forecast for not only this week but for the week of the British Open shows that one big cloud is going to just sit about the British Island for the next two weeks, and every day it will rain.

So look for two interesting weeks of golf.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,600
• Rory McIlroy – $10,900
• Xander Schauffele – $10,400
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,200
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,800
• Viktor Hovland – $9,700
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600
• Rickie Fowler – $9,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,400
• Jordan Spieth – $9,300
• Shane Lowry – $9,100
• Wyndham Clark – $9,000

A great event played on different conditions, look for those that have done well at Renaissance and are playing well.  Remember this, we are seeing links golf which is totally different than what we have seen the last couple of months.  Scottie Scheffler at $11,600 is normally a good choice, but with poor weather and a drab record at the Renaissance Club, I would be very careful in automatically choosing him.  Same with Rory McIlroy at $10,900, he hasn’t shown a liking to this course. Matter of fact, if it’s windy and rainy, Rory is not one of my favorite choices.  So I am also avoiding Rory this week.  Now Xander Schauffele at $10,400 is a good choice, normally I keep away from defending champions but feel he is playing well and the course does suit him, so he is my first choice.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,200, is also a great choice.  He has quietly had a great year since the Genesis in L.A. in his last 12 starts has been out of the top-15 just three times.  He was T-14th at the U.S. Open and T-4th at the Travelers, he will contend this week.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,800 is also a great choice, he was T-2nd in 2021 and T-6th last year.  Since winning at Heritage he has struggled a bit, but at this event, I think he will be good.  As for Viktor Hovland at $9,700, he may have missed the cut in his only Renaissance start last year.  I still think he will do fine, he loves playing near the sea and has had a great year.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,600, is not on my radar screen this week, he hasn’t played that great at Renaissance, and despite finishing in the top 30 in his last seven starts, he hasn’t really contended in the final round except for at Wells Fargo.  Rickie Fowler at $9,500, will be on everyone’s radar screens now that he has returned to the winner’s circle.  His record at Renaissance is not great, but he is a past champion winning down the road at Gullane eight years ago.  Showed that he was a good mudder in the rain at Rocket Mortgage, which will help him in the coming week with a lot of rain in the forecast.  Many will say that Rickie could lose his edge and slack off, I think he has the confidence to contend in every event he tees it up at.  I really like Tommy Fleetwood at $9,400 the most.  Has played well at the Renaissance, finishing 2nd in 2020 and T-4th last year.  His game was sharp with a 2nd in Canada and then T-5th at the U.S. Open, but he missed the cut at the Travelers.  The combination of his good play at Renaissance and the bad weather makes him my favorite.  Yes, Jordan Spieth at $9,300 played well last year finishing T-10th, but I think the wrist is still a problem as he has been very inconsistent since losing the playoff at the Heritage.  I have not been very keen on Shane Lowry at $9,100.  Has never played at the Renaissance and I think each week he is way overpriced for a guy that seems to finish in the middle teens (T-16th) each week.  If you’re looking for a guy to make the cut and get you points, Shane is your man.  But at $9,100, it’s a waste of your money.  So it’s interesting to see which direction Wyndham Clark at $9,000 goes.  He played once at Renaissance finishing T-16th last year.  He has a tremendous amount of energy right now, so it will be interesting to see in what direction he goes.  I am going to wait another week before I feel confident in him playing well.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Justin Rose at $8,700 could be just the ticket.  He has had a lot of good play since his Pebble win, after finishing T-4th last week at the Belfry. I just had this feeling he is ready to win soon.  Tom Kim at $8,500 is a good choice.  With his third-place finish last year, he showed that he belong on the PGA Tour. He showed how he deserved to play on this tour and despite not playing well since Palm Springs in January, I think his game is close and I can see him playing really well over the summer.  Ludvig Abers at $8,200 is a bit high, but he has done a lot of activities in the spring and summer and is playing well right now.  Rasmus Hojgaard at $7,700 is a very good buy.  He has played well in 2023, he won in Denmark on Sunday.  Was T-10th last year in this event, and he will be a big help this week for those that pick him.  Lucas Herbert at $7,700, is a player to watch this week, yes, he missed the cut last year but was T-4th in 2021 & ’20.  He has been all over the map in 2023, he won in Japan in April and missed the cut in three straight events before finishing T-15th at the Travelers.  He is worth the gamble.  Brian Harman at $7,600, is another steal.  He was T-2nd a the Travelers and T-9th at the Rocket Mortgage so he is another sure pick.  Another good buy is Thomas Detry at $7,500.  He was T-10th last year and T-2nd in 2021 at Renaissance.  I realize he missed the cut at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage, but I think he will be good this week

Some of the “bargains” this week in Scotland

Eric Cole at $7,400, is someone to think of, playing for the first time in the Scottish Open.  He has been on the cusp many times this year. Only a matter of time before he puts everything together.  Robert MacIntyre at $7,400 is another good choice, yes his record in the Scottish Open is not great but he has played well of late, and came close to winning in Denmark.  Same with Alexander Bjork at $7,300, not a great record at the Renaissance but has played well of late.  Adrian Meronk at $7,300, is another of those Euro’s we hear very little about and has been playing well of late, he was T-3rd at the BMW International and T-15th at the British Masters.  Won the Italian Open in May.  Same with Jordan Smith at $7,200, he was T-6th at the Porsche European Open, T-20th at the U.S. Open, T-39th at the British Masters, and T-35th at the Made in Himmerland.  Joost Luiten at $7,100 is another great buy, he was 2nd at the BMW International and T-8th at the British Masters.  Kevin Yu at $6,800 is another person to watch, great young talent that is in his rookie year and was playing great, but hurt his leg at Pebble and had surgery.  He made his return at the Travelers and was T-6th at the John Deere.