BlogOpen Championship Preview and Picks

Open Championship

July 20th – 23rd, 2023

Royal Liverpool

Hoylake, England

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,383

Purse: $16.5 million

with $3,000,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Cameron Smith

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the Field for the Open Championship

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the Field for the Open Championship

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Some personal thoughts

I did not go to the British Open this year. Since my first British in 1975, I have attended all except for 2021 due to Covid and this year. Now that I am writing this from my home instead of the press room at Holyoke, I feel I made a mistake. I decided months ago not to go, mostly because the travel has become intolerable, even in Business Class the problem is too many are now traveling and the airlines are full and do a terrible job.  Last year I really didn’t enjoy all of the people everywhere and having to pay top dollar for crappy service. Ten days ago, I realized  I made a mistake, but it was impossible when I tried to book flights and a place to stay. The flights were sold out, and the coach was the same price I paid for business class last year. I will return next year for Troon; for now, I have to gut this out, which was a bad decision. Oh well, I will miss this week and having tennent’s lager with my friends like Ian.  Have a Aie or two for me.

So anything interesting for this year?

Lots of storylines. With Rory winning the Scottish Open and winning at Hoylake in 2014, he is the man on everybody’s radar screen. Do I think he is the favorite? Yes, but there are others that we know will play well. How can we forget about Scottie Scheffler, he is the best striker of the ball this week, but his putting is not very good. If he could have a reasonable putting week, he would win. God forbid the field if Scheffler finds his putter and makes a lot of putts; if that happens, nobody will beat him. As for Rory, he is hitting the ball great and has scrambled to putt better, which he did at the Scottish Open and won. The big thing that will help Scheffler and McIlroy is that the greens aren’t as fast as normal PGA Tour courses. I think that helped Rory in winning the Scottish Open.

The one thing we have to realize is that Hoylake is a great course. If you look at the best courses on the British Open, Muirfield is the best, followed by Hoylake. I say this because Hoylake will be a fair test for the players. Of course, Carnoustie is the hardest, but some artificial items make it tough, especially the final four holes. Troon, which the British will be played on next year, is also a good course, but a notch below Muirfield and Hoylake.

So what makes Hoylake so good? The course routing is perfect; you must be on your game from tee to green, much like at Muirfield. This is one of the reasons that Tiger and Rory have won at Hoylake; at the time of their victories, they hit the ball better than anyone else. We mentioned above that Rory and Scottie are the top favorites; here are more. Jon Rahm has a reputation as one of the best ball strikers in the game; he is 3rd this year in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green and 16th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. Some others that will do well are Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson. We can also add Rickie Fowler (He was 2nd at Hoylake in 2014), Xander Schauffele, and Tom Kim. Of those I think will struggle this week, on the top of the list is defending champion Cameron Smith. Yes, he won at St. Andrews and is one of the best putters in the game. But St. Andrews is drastically different from Hoylake; at St. Andrews, you can drive it all over the course and still win. That won’t happen this week; if you are a poor driver or lack of shots to the green, you won’t play well. I think others who will struggle this week including Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth. All three aren’t sharp right now; for Matsuyama and Spieth, injuries may be a problem. As for Thomas, his game is in total disarray; last week at the Scottish Open, he put better but still stumbled over the weekend.

Some others I am not mentioning that folks will think about are Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau. As for Fitzpatrick, Clark, and Homa, they have not played well in the British. As for Finau, he did finish 3rd at Carnoustie in 2018 but not as great in his other five starts. DeChambeau didn’t play well in his first four British Opens but finished T-8th last year at St. Andrews. So he is on my naughty list.

Is there a sneaky player who we need to watch? Corey Conners is one, along with Keegan Bradley and Talor Gooch. Another person to watch is 2019 champion Shane Lowery; he was T-9th at Hoylake in 2014. Talking about Hoylake in 2014, Adam Scott was T-5th but has struggled with his game most of the year.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

What about Hoylake?

A big cloud has been hovering over Hoylake for the last week, and that cloud is not going away. Look for rain and wind playing a part this year. The weather will be like it was in 2019 at Portrush in 2019 and Carnoustie in 2018. So with mother nature making an appearance, the course will be hard. Not as hard at Carnoustie, but still have some bite to it. In talking with people at Hoylake, they all tell me the same; the course is very green with all of the rain, the rough is getting rough, and on average, the course will play tough. But as history tells us, two or three players will hit the ball great, so scores in the neighborhood of 10 under are manageable this year.

Championship information:

The British Open traces its roots to October 17, 1860, at the Links at Prestwick. Hard to believe that the British Open was played 6 months before Abraham Lincoln was sworn into office on March 4, 1861.

Eight professionals vied at the inaugural Open Championship, making three trips around the 12-hole golf course at Prestwick. Willie Park Sr.’s 174 gave him a two-shot win over Old Tom Morris. The original prize was the Challenge Belt. It’s interesting to note that a month later, on November 6, 1860, Abraham Lincoln was elected the 16th President of the United States.

In 1873, Tom Kidd’s victory at St. Andrews was monumental. It was the first-Open Championship held at St. Andrews, and with Kidd’s win, he took home the first-ever Claret Jug. The jug was manufactured at the cost of 30 pounds by Mackay Cunningham & Co. of Edinburgh. To put that in perspective, 30 pounds today would be worth about 50 dollars. Not much money in today’s world, but here is a better view of it. In searching the value of the British pound in 1860, it had a purchasing power of about 63.10 today. So if you multiply 63.10 30 times, you get 1,893 pounds, which means they paid about $3,000 to make up the original Claret Jug in today’s money.

By 1892, The Open Championship had moved to a 72-hole format, 36-holes over two days. With the changes to the Open Championship format, play began to increase. As play increased, a cut was instituted, starting in 1898, to limit the number of competitors over the final 36 holes. The increase in competition led to a decrease in scoring. Jack White’s 296 in the 1904 Open Championship marked the first time a competitor shot an aggregate score under 300. His final round of 68 also set a record for the lowest round by a golfer. The Open Championship went on a six-year hiatus beginning in 1914 due to the outbreak of World War I. When the tournament resurfaced in 1920, it did so under new ownership. The R&A was entrusted with the task of managing the event. To this day, the R&A still administers the Championship.

The R&A quickly installed changes to The Open Championship. The event spanned three days, with 18 holes on each of the first two days and 36 on the final day. Also, The R&A began charging admission to see the event. A year later, The R & R&A started to produce a replica of the Claret Jug awarded to each year’s champion. The original jug resides in the clubhouse of the Royal & Ancient Golf Club. The suspension of the Open from 1939 to 1946 due to World War II represents the longest gap between Open Championships. Sam Snead won the 1946 U.S. Open at St. Andrews, defeating Bobby Locke.

The 1955 Open marked a new era for the event. BBC broadcasted the tournament on television for the first time. By 1966, the Open Championship was being played over four days, 18 holes each day. For the first time, ABC broadcasted a live feed of the event in America in 1982. In 1977, Regional Qualifying around England and Scotland was introduced permanently to help organize qualifying in which there were two levels, first local qualifying and then moving on the week of the Championship. It had been an experiment at the 1926 Open but abandoned after just one year. In 1980, the Open Championship was moved to its current format, 18 holes over four days, with the tournament concluding on Sunday. A decade later, in 1990, the event set an attendance record with over 208,000 spectators showing up to watch the tournament at St. Andrews. Another significant change in 2005 saw international qualifying, with different sites set up in Australia, South Africa, Asia, and America, and for the European players to try and qualify in their country instead of flying off to England. Today things are a bit different; there are two ways you can get in. One is either winning a significant event, being high in the world rankings, or being a top winner on either the PGA Tour, European Tour, South African Tour, Japan, or Asian Tour. Or you can get through qualifying tournaments in which there are 12 events in which the top players for that week can get into the Open and four qualifying sites around England that finished just two weeks ago.

The 2023 Open Championship will be the 151st installment of the tournament. This is the 13th time that Hoylake is holding the British Open. You look at its winners and ifs, the who-who of golf. Of the 12 champions, seven of them are in Golf’s Hall of Fame: Harold Hilton in 1897, J.H. Taylor in 1913, Walter Hagen in 1924, Bobby Jones in 1930, Peter Thompson in 1956, Roberto DeVicenzo in 1967, Tiger Woods in 2006 and we know that it’s only a matter of time before Rory McIlroy is also a member.

Course information:

• Royal Liverpool
• Hoylake, England
• 7,383 yards     Par 35-36–71

Royal Liverpool — or Hoylake, as it is usually known — is the second-oldest seaside links golf course in England and was the first course in North-West England to host The Open. Built on the Liverpool Hunt Club racecourse, it retained a dual role as a horse racing venue and golf course for the first few years of its life.

The club played a key part in the development of Amateur golf: in 1885, it hosted the inaugural Amateur Championship, and in 1921, it hosted the first informal match, which would become the Walker Cup. Furthermore, two of the three amateurs who have won The Open were Hoylake members: John Ball and Harold Hilton. Fittingly enough, the other amateur winner, Bobby Jones, won his third Open at Hoylake, an event which was the second of four steps in his unprecedented and unmatched grand slam.

Aside from Hilton and Jones, Hoylake has witnessed a string of unique Open winners. Arnaud Massey became the only Frenchman to win the title here in 1907; Fred Daly became the first Irishman in 1947 (Padraig Harrington in 2007 was only the second).   Argentinian Roberto De Vicenzo became the first South American to win a major when he triumphed at Hoylake in 1967.

After the 1967 Open, it seemed unlikely that the Championship would ever return to Hoylake. In 2006, following years of work undertaken to create the space needed for a modern Open, the event returned and did so in style. The “loose” talk was that it’s a great member’s course but may not hold up to the onslaught of the best players in the world. Royal Liverpool is a relic of a bygone era in which persimmon was the rage, along with fiber-glass shaft drivers and balls that felt like mesh peas. They did add 263 yards since 1967, but many thought that wasn’t enough. Of course, when the R&A chose to return to Hoylake, they expected a bit of wind to help their cause. They also were hoping for a bit of rain to help them soften the rock-hard fairways and make the rough lush and impossible in places. But that never happened. In a week of wonderful weather on a fast golf course, Tiger Woods produced an imperious display of intelligent golf — during which he only once used his driver — that would ensure a third Open Championship victory for him.

Now that brings up an important topic, 2006 was probably the smartest golf Tiger had played in his career. He overpowered the course by keeping it in play. So the question is, will Tiger relive 2006 and play the same way, keeping the driver in the bag? The R&A did very little to change the course for the 2014 Open, they added 54 yards, but the strategy of the course was the same as it was seven years before.

But for this year, the players will see some tweaks throughout the course, with additional bunkering, harsher run-off areas in places, added yardage and a new par total, new tees, and a new hole the par 3, 17th. As for the added yards, 71 yards have been added. The biggest change will be on two of the three par 5s. 43 yards have been added to the 15th hole; it will play at 620 yards. The par 5 18th will play 58 yards longer at 609 yards. The par 3, 9th hole, will play 21 yards more in 2018. The big change comes at the 10th hole; in 2014, it was a par 5 at 532 yards. This year the R&A decreased the hole by 21 yards, and it will play at 507 but will be a par 4 instead of 5. The biggest change comes at the 17th hole. The club built a new hole, the 17th, that replaces the par 3 15th hole. The hole will be one of the shortest at 136 but will be deadly. The tee shot will be played toward the Dee Estuary, and the green will be sitting up so that if the green is missed, the ball will bound down to either a collection area or a bunker. Since the hole will play into the prevailing wind, players may need seven or six irons to get on the green. In a way, the hole is much like the postage stamp 8th hole at Royal Troon. But the big difference, a disaster at Troon will not be bad because there are ten holes to make up the difference. But a catastrophe by a leader at 17 gives the player no way to catch up, making the shot even harder. Now we mentioned that the 18th hole has added 58 yards to it. That will make the out-of-bounds on the right side more into play on the drive and the second shot. For most players, the second shot will be scary. That is because you have to fly the shot over the out-of-bounds and get it into a narrow fairway, looking for higher numbers than in 2006 or ’14. So the finish could be very memorable.

So there you have, in a nutshell, some things about Royal Liverpool, so let’s see how that determines a winner for this week.

It’s hard to believe we have another major coming up; that’s the good news, the bad news, the last one for the year. The Masters is only 269 days away, and before you know it, we will be talking about the new year of majors. But before that, we have to finish the majors in 2023.

This week, it’s the Open Championship, and it’s being played at Royal Liverpool or what many are familiar with, Hoylake. This course is a gem and, along with Muirfield, could be the best course on the British Open rota. The course is drastically different from St. Andrews, which held the Open last year. Last year players just bombed away since the fairways were so wide. The big danger of St. Andrews was the bunkers, and if you could avoid those bunkers and putt well, you would score well.
This week Hoylake is a dominant course in which you have to hit it well off the tee and have precision iron play and putt well. A perfect example is driving the ball; on the 14 driving holes, there are 36 fairway bunkers, so an average of two and a half per hole. Now these aren’t regular bunkers that a player can reach the green from; many of them are deep enough that an attempt to get to the green is impossible; you must lay it up. For those that avoid fairway bunkers, the rough will be a challenge as the fairways average 32 yards, yes, it could be worst, but in some places, again, you have to take your medicine and lay up down the fairway. I say that because despite the area having a very dry June, heavy rains over the last 3 weeks have greened up the course and strengthened the rough. As for the greens, the 18 greens are guarded by 40 bunkers or just about two per hole. Again bunker will gobble up your ball, and the deepness along steep faces again makes it challenging. The greens are only 6,450 square feet which is about normal, so if you’re on the fairway, getting them on the greens shouldn’t present a problem.
One of the reasons people love Hoylake is the lack of blind shots, either off the tee or to the green. The only blind shot could be the 8th hole, but that is because you have to drive bushes to a landing area with a gorse on the left and a bunker on the right. Of course, like last week, the weather will play a key to how the course plays. In 2006 the whole week was like being in San Diego, dry, hot weather with temperatures in the mid-80s, which is desirable for that area of the world. The weather was just about the same in 2014, but it was overcast over the weekend with spots of rain and wind in the 8 to 12 MPG range. Nothing to make the course play harder. That is why Tiger Woods shot 270 in 2006 and Rory McIlroy shot 271 in 2014. Both years saw Rory and Tiger leading after the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Technology has changed a lot since Tiger won in 2006, but in 2014 Rory was using the new Nike RZN black ball, which helped bring the score down as the ball was low-spinning with the driver but high-spinning with a wedge. This was about the time that Golf Ball Technology drastically changed the game. Still, Rory played great and won.
This is the 13th time that Hoylake is holding the British Open. You look at its winners and ifs, the who-who of golf. Of the 12 champions, seven of them are in Golf’s Hall of Fame: Harold Hilton in 1897, J.H. Taylor in 1913, Walter Hagen in 1924, Bobby Jones in 1930, Peter Thompson in 1956, Roberto DeVicenzo in 1967, and Tiger Woods in 2006. As you can see, the course brings out the best in the top players in golf.
So what are the keys to winning this week?
*Good bunker play – yes, you want to avoid them, but for those that can escape and get it up and down, it will help.
*Some will say that length and brute strength will play an important role this week. That’s not how Tiger or Rory won in 2006 and ’14, but things are different today. The longer you drive it, the more of an advantage you will have. But with heavy rough, that will be trickier when wet; look for more irons off the tee. Remember this, in his victory in 2006, Tiger used the driver just once over the 72 holes. So keeping it in the fairway is important.
*Putting is going to be a premium this week. The greens are flat and slow under the standards of the top professionals, so look for lots of 7, 8, 9, and 10-footers to be made.
*Will Hoylake have a surprise winner, or will it be a marquee name? Nobody can predict. Look at the past; it has a history of any kind of Champion. Last year at St. Andrews, it didn’t surprise me that Cameron Smith won; he did it thanks to his putter. Now at Hoylake, I see Smith, who isn’t that great of a driver having a tough time. But back to the question, could there be a surprise winner? In looking at the history of Hoylake, just as many Fred Daly’s and Roberto De Vicenzo’s have won compared to Tiger Woods and Bobby Jones. This is the 20th anniversary of Ben Curtis winning at St. George, so anything can happen.
*Be able to play in all conditions. For the practice rounds on Monday, the course has been playing easy and dry. So nobody will know how to play once the rains start, and yes, it will rain this week.
*Scrambler. Green is a bit small, and a player must have the skills to get it up and down from off the green or greenside bunkers.
*Player that doesn’t hit it into bunkers. One of the key stats for Tiger Woods’s win in 2000 and Justin Leonard’s win at Troon in 1997 is that they didn’t hit it in a bunker during the 72 holes. If that gets repeated this week, that person will win the Claret Jug.

Technology has changed a bit since they last played Holyoke in 2014. Then, along with the players’ fitness, what has the R&A done? Not much, par has been reduced from 72 in 2014 to 71 this year. Despite that, the course will play 71 yards longer than in 2014. So what is the R&A betting to make the course play tougher? A combination of rough and a pray that the weather will be windy. Last month the course was burned due to the hot conditions, but the rain has made the course lush, and the rough has grown. Mid-July is the time in England that normally gets great weather; remember, Hoylake is 200 miles south of Scotland, but it will look more like Scotland than San Diego. If the weather gets nasty, the scores will be higher.
Either way, there are advantages and disadvantages to both types of weather. The course will play tough if it gets bone-dry and hard because the bounces make hitting fairways difficult. So in a way, players will be looking for wet weather, which will slow the bouncing of balls and make it more manageable.

So with that said, how can we judge this course? First, we will do something we are doing on the majors played on different courses in picking our four key stats. We are using strokes gained stats. Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. With thick rough, tough bunkers, getting it in the fairway is essential. We can see and hear the players talking about the fescue/bentgrass and dozens of other dune land species playing a factor this week; if you miss the fairway and in the wispy fescue, good luck in trying to make par.
Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you must make sure to hit the greens. Our third stat is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green because players will miss greens and must get it up and down. Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because that will be very important for players this week.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: Takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Number of strokes gained from shots around the green, lot of it is scrambling and bunker play..

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

The 66 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023. Remember, there are a lot of foreign players in the field:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the players’ stats for the British Open

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,500
• Rory McIlroy – $11,900
• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Cameron Smith – $10,700
• Brooks Koepka – $10,400
• Xander Schauffele – $10,100
• Viktor Hovland – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,900
• Rickie Fowler – $9,800
• Jordan Spieth – $9,700
• Collin Morikawa – $9,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,500
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,400
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,300
• Dustin Johnson – $9,200
• Shane Lowry – $9,100
• Cameron Young – $9,000

Have to say this week will be close to impossible to pick players. The reason, the prices of the top players are too much. The top three are over $11,000, and the top seven are over $10,000. So taking Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy leaves you with just $25,600 or an average of $6,400 for your remaining players, which is impossible. Taking just Scheffler means your other five players have to average just $7,500 each. So what DraftKings has done is make it impossible to take favorites. Yes, I like Scottie Scheffler, but at $12,500, he is nearly untouchable to pick five other players. We all know that Scheffler has been playing great for most of the year, and I don’t doubt he won’t be in the top five and get you 120 points, but that makes the rest of the picks even harder. The same with Rory McIlroy at $11,900 and Jon Rahm at $11,200. They are both players you would like to pick and should earn you many points, but that leaves you with fewer options. Now Cameron Smith at $10,700 is an easy choice; I don’t think his driving will play at Hoylake, so he isn’t a player you will choose. Brooks Koepka at $10,400 is in the range, he has played well at the British Open with four top-ten finishes, and I see him doing it again. But you have to ask yourself, could Koepka win? He won the PGA Championship and was runner-up at the Masters. He was T-17th at the U.S. Open, but is he healthy enough to play 72 holes in cold, possibly miserable conditions? We need to pick a winner, and I can’t see Brooks winning. Xander Schauffele, at $10,100, is my first player worth the price. Can he win? Yes. But to make him a good pick, he has to be top-seven. The same with Viktor Hovland at $10,000; in two British Opens, he is T-12th and T-4th, so that gives us the confidence to pick him. Patrick Cantlay at $9,900 is a bit too high for me; on courses by the oceans, he does well at Pebble Beach, but he missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, and I am very cautious of him, especially if the weather is poor. Rickie Fowler, at $9,800, will be a sentimental pick; he was T-2nd at Hoylake in 2014 and is playing well. He struggled in poor conditions in the final round last week in Scotland, but his game is sharp, and Rickie has a new-found attitude that he can win, so yes, he is a good choice. Jordan Spieth at $9,700, is a big no for me; I think his wrist is not 100%, and it will be tough for him in cold, windy conditions. I know that Collin Morikawa, at $9,600, will be a great pick. His game is suited for links courses. Yes, I realize he missed the cut at St. Andrews, but again that is a different course and one that doesn’t fit his game. But I feel Hoylake is perfect for him, if he can putt just a shade better will contend. On the other end of the spectrum, I think Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,500 is a poor choice. He has never played well in the British Open; in seven starts, his best finish is T-20th. He missed the cut in Scotland last week; I am not touching Matt this week. Tyrrell Hatton at $9,400 is a big go for me; he has had some solid performances at the British Open and was T-6th last week in Scottish Open; I feel he is worth the gamble this week. The same with Tommy Fleetwood at $9,300; he was 2nd at Portrush and T-4th last year at St. Andrews has played well with a 2nd in Canada, T-5th at the U.S. Open, and T-6th last week in Scotland. I also like Dustin Johnson at $9,200; he is ready to come out and win another major. He was T-12th at Hoylake in 2014, T-8th in 2021, and T-6th last year. The only thing I worry about is the weather which could be a small disadvantage for him. I still don’t understand the love affair that DraftKings has with Shane Lowry, who is $9,100 this week. I don’t think he is that good, yes, he has made 13 cuts in 14 starts and has been in the top ten in eight of those events, but he just isn’t worth the cost. Cameron Young at $9,000 is a yes for me; he is a very streaky player who plays well in every sixth/seventh start. He was T-6th in his last start at the John Deere, and I think he will play very well this week.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to find some players in this price range. I will tell you it’s going to be hard to find someone. I don’t like Hideki Matsuyama at $8,90o, Bryce Dechambeau at $8,800, Wyndham Clark at $8,700, or Justin Thomas at $8,600. Going down the list, I don’t like Sam Burns, Max Homa Sungjae Im, or Tony Finau. I do like Tom Kim at $8,100. His game has turned around; he played well last week until the final round, but I feel his final round 73 will be a learning experience. That Kim is excellent from tee to green, yes has stumbled with the putter, but that is coming around, so he is a good choice. Talor Gooch, at $7,900, is worth a go, he has played great, winning three times on LIV Golf, and thinks he can do well at Hoylake. Min Woo Lee, at $7,700, is also a good pick; he is cheap enough and does make a lot of cuts, and a finish in the top 20 makes him worth the cost. Corey Conners, at $7,700, is also a good pick and someone that could get you a good event and earn 70 to 80 DraftKings points.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Hoylake

We need to pick guys who make cuts and can surprise us. The first name I see is Brian Harman at $7,300. He has played well of late, was T-2nd at the Travelers, T-9th at the Rocket Mortgage, and T-12th in Scotland, struggling to a 74 on the last day. Still, he is priced well. Adrian Meronk, at $7,200, has also been impressive on the DP World Tour; he won in Italy in May and was T-3rd at the BMW last month. Robert MacIntyre at $6,800 is a must-take pick. In the British Open, he was T-8th in 2021 and T-6th in 2019. He also was T-4th in Denmark and 2nd last week in Scotland, he could have won, but Rory went birdie-birdie to beat him by a shot. Alexander Bjork at $6,700 is also a must-take pick; he has made the cut in all 15 events in 2023 on the DP Tour, and his last five starts are T-6th in Germany, T-9th in Sweden, T-8th at the Belfry, T-4th in Denmark and T-35th last week in Scotland. Another guy to watch is Joost Luiten at $6,200. His record may not be the best at the British, but in 18 2023 starts made the cut in 17 of them, and in his last three events was 2nd at the BMW, T-8th at the Belfry, and T-54th last week in Scotland.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the British Open:

In the past 30 years, it’s been won by grinders like Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Zach Johnson, Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Lehman, Darren Clarke, Collin Morikawa, and Stewart Cink, who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots. There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth, who were expected to win. And then you had your superstar that wasn’t supposed to win in Phil Mickelson, do the job. It’s been won by great tour players like Ernie Els, David Duval, and Justin Leonard, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major. But unfortunately, the British Open has been won by guys that fell out of the limelight right after their victories. Ian Baker-Finch, Mark O’Meara, Paul Lawrie, David Duval, Todd Hamilton, and Ben Curtis all come to mind. Since their win, they have fallen from grace and have struggled with their games.

The field is great, 77 of the top 100 in the world rankings. Every great player in the world is here and ready to go. Hoylake is soft and wet right now, but it could play harder if the wind blows.

The key stat for the winner:

• Avoiding bunkers is always a key at the British Open, and Hoylake is no different. There are 84 bunkers on the course, and if you hit into one of them, you will probably make a bogey on the hole.
• British Opens have produced winners in the last dozen years, making predictions difficult. First off, since 2010, every Champion has played the week before at the Scottish Open. A perfect example is last year Cameron Smith was T-10th at the Scottish Open and waltzed into St. Andrews to win. With so many playing in that event, the odds favor a winner coming from Gullane. Here are some other things. Stewart Cink became an oddity in his win in 2009, beating Tom Watson in a playoff. Padraig Harrington had two in a row, Tiger Woods had won three in six years, and David Duval and Ernie Els were near the top of the rankings when they won. But Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton were two of the most surprising winners in major championship history, and Paul Lawrie wasn’t far behind. Somewhere in the middle was 1998 champion Mark O’Meara. Collin Morikawa showed that you could win on your first try at the British, and the links experience is unnecessary.

Some other keys to playing well this week:

• Good bunker play – yes, you want to avoid them, but for those that can escape and get it up and down, it will help.
• Some say that length and brute strength will be important this week. That’s not how Tiger did it in 2006 when he used a driver just once. Sure, the longer you drive it, the more of an advantage you will have, and that is a big word if you hit the fairway.
• Putting is going to be a premium this week. The greens are flat and slow under the standards of the top professionals, so look for lots of 7, 8, 9, and 10-footers to be made.
• Will Hoylake have a surprise winner, or will it be a marquee name nobody can predict? Last year at St. Andrews, everyone was a bit surprised that Cameron Smith won, but four months earlier he won the Players. Many, but not me, at St. George, were surprised by Morikawa, even though he won the PGA Championship the year before. In 2014 at Hoylake, it didn’t surprise me that Rory McIlroy won; the same in 2013 at Muirfield, it didn’t surprise me that Phil Mickelson won. He was a Hall of Famer, joining other Muirfield Hall of Fame winners. The point is that favorites tend to win at the Open, and yes, Louis Oosthuizen broke the trend a bit in 2010.
• Last but not least, don’t listen to any of the experts who make picks, including me. Golf has become nearly impossible to gauge, and picking a winner is almost impossible. The game has gotten so refined with swing gurus, mind coaches, fitness coaches, and dietary experts that golfers can change from playing terribly to winning in a matter of a week. Just look at a couple of the winners of late. Sepp Straka was not a player many thought would win again, and he did it at the John Deere came. How many of you thought that Wyndham Clark could win the U.S. Open? And how about Nick Taylor winning his national title in Canada? Yes, golf has gotten very complicated these days, and of the field of 156 this week, about half of them can win.

Who to watch for at the Open Championship

Best Bets:

Best of the rest:

Solid contenders

Long shots that could come through:

They will struggle this week: