3M Open Key Fantasy Stats

3M Open

July 27th – 30th, 2023

TPC Twin Cities

Blaine, MN

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,431

Purse: $7.8 million

with $1,404,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tony Finau

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Twin Cities, data from last year’s 3M Open, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
Last year was the fourth year of the 3M Open. It was a popular venue Champions Tour event before switching for 2019. The switch proved very successful as the community got in the back of the tournament and made it a mainstay for the Minnesota area. Now the heart and soul of the event is the course, TPC Twin Cities. It’s a course most players like because they can produce a low score on it. Last year because of the weather, the scoring average was 71.44, which is almost half a shot over par and the 14th easiest course. Winner Tony Finau was 17 under par, making 20 birdies in his three-shot victory. In 2021 the scoring average was 70.44 (a shot easier than last year), half a shot under par, and the 24th hardest course on Tour. Winner Cameron Champ scored 15 under par and had 21 birdies for the week. The previous year it played to a 69.95 scoring average, a shot below its par. Ranking-wise, it was the 23rd hardest on the PGA Tour.
With the course playing this easy, 1,510 birdies and 38 eagles were made. Now it wasn’t as good as in 2019 when the course had more birdies made on it (1,976) than any other course in 2019. In 2020 the course had 1,769 birdies, placing it 36th out of 41 courses, and in 2021 1,687 birdies were made, ranking it 42nd out of 51 courses. So it’s important to note that making birdies could be one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Twin Cities.
So the stats make the point that this is a bomber’s course. The same with Eagles; last year, 38 were made, and that is good for a course that only has three par 5s.

In our four categories, we have picked four needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Green, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year the average drive was 288.8 for all the holes, ranking 16th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 38th with 63.54% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner Tony Finau ranked 17th in driving distance and T-6th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green. In 2021, the average drive was 300.3 yards for measured drives and ranked 37th, meaning that only 14 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 28th, with 62.66% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he ranked 8th in driving distance and T-49th in accuracy, so he ranked 27th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020, winner Michael Thompson ranked 46th in driving distance and T-22nd in accuracy, so he ranked 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. As for 2019 winner Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in Driving Distance and T-31st in Accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 27th on Tour with 66.87% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Finau, hit 60 of 72 greens for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd. The course in 2021 ranked 38th on Tour with 70.38% of the greens hit. So this shows again that many players hit the greens last year. The winner in 2021, Champ, hit 54 of 72 greens for a 75.00%, ranking T-22nd. In 2020 Michael Thompson hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd. In 2019, winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-6th. Runner-up Louis Oosthuizen hit the most greens, 62 of 72.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, an integral part of the game. Last year the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.800 as the course ranked 13th. It averaged 29.65 putts per round, ranking it 10th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 17th. As for last year’s winner Tony Finau, he took 117 putts, ranked 37th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 42nd. In 2021 the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.775 as the course ranked 22nd. It averaged 29.49 putts per round, ranking it 14th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 37th. As for last year’s winner Champ, he took 109 putts, ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, and was ranked 1st. In 2020 Thompson took 115 putts, ranking 1st, and Strokes Gained Putting was 1st. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked 3rd, making 61 of 64 putts. In 2019, Wolff took 115 putts, ranked T-25th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 39th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.
The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,510 birdies were made on the course, and it ranked 35th in total birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. Last year’s winner Tony Finau made 20 birdies, ranked T-4th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Finau was T-5th in Par Breaker. In 2021, 1,687 birdies were made on the course, with only nine other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. Last year’s winner Cameron Champ made 21 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Champ was T-2nd in Par Breaker. In 2020 Michael Thompson made 22 birdies, ranked T-7th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Thompson was T-12th in Par Breaker. In 2019 TPC Twin Cities had a total of 52 eagles, ranked 43rd and 39th in Par Breakers. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was 1st in Par Breakers.
Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and his eagle on the 72nd hole was the reason he won the tournament by a shot. Thompson played great and cruised to a two-shot victory, the same with Champ in 2021. Last year’s winner Tony Finau shot 67 in the final round and won by three shots.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee, and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent of putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 131 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2023.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Comments

  1. steve oakes says

    thanks for a great initial analysis as always … seems to me the 2 stats we need are simply 1) distance off the tee … and 2) best putters on bent grass greens stimping 13 plus .. looking at the previous winners Finau Champ and Wolff .. its “simply” the longest hitter who happens to have a great week with the putter who will win .. and comfortably? I’m itching to take long hitters like Young and Fox but worried a) being first timers at Twin Cities wont know the nuances of the greens and b) adapting back to greens stimping 13 only days after the typically slow and bumpy British links greens … indeed including jet lag does it mean it can only be a long hitter that DIDNT play in The Open and instead been practising on lovely smooth fast bent greens will win this week ?

  2. This week is all about hitting it long and straight (rough harder than you think) and putting well. These guys got over from England on a charter, don’t think Jet lag is a factor.

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