Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We finally ended the majors season but in a different way than it started. With Jon Rahm winning, it would be a banner year. Adding to that was Brooks Koepka winning the PGA Championship, sure a lot of folks weren’t happy to see a LIV golfer win, but there is no argument for the greatness of Koepka in winning his fifth major championship. Then things changed, with Wyndham Clark winning the U.S. Open and Brian Harman winning the British Open. Both were unexpected winners and not the marquee names you want to win the majors, but both had one thing in common. Both were standout junior players with good amateur records; when they turned professional, both were considered good bets for fame on the PGA Tour. But in both cases, it took them longer than some expected to achieve the magic of winning on the big stage.

For Harman, he had a decorated amateur career that saw him win the 2003 U.S. Junior Amateur Championship, the 2005 Players Amateur, Georgia Amateur, the 2007 Porter Cup, and the 2009 Dogwood Invitational. He was also a member of two winning U.S. Walker Cup Teams (2005 and ’09) and the winning U.S. Palmer Cup team in 2007. Harman was a three-time, second-team All-American at the University of Georgia. He won the 2005 NCAA Preview and the 2006 Isleworth Invitational. He also won the yearly award for the highest grade point average three times. So when he turned professional in 2009, it took him a bit on the eGolf Professional Tour and then the Korn Ferry Tour before he won a spot in the 2011 PGA Tour Qualifying Tournament. The one thing about Harman is he may not have been a world-beater with just two wins on the PGA Tour, but he was always consistent, never going high than 94th in the FedExCup rankings.

As we said, it took Harman a bit to win his first major. He was 36 years, 6 months, and 4 days old; if you look back over the last 53 years of major championships, the only player older to win their first major was Padraig Harrington at 36 years, 11 months in winning the 2008 British Open. Also, Sergio Garcia was 37 years old, three months when he won the 2017 Masters. Now the oldest first-time major winner was Darren Clarke, who was 42 years, 11 months old when he won the 2011 British Open.

In looking at Harman’s career, he has played in 340 PGA Tour events. In the 12 years he has played on the PGA Tour, he has played in 31 majors. His best was T-2nd at the 2017 U.S. Open that Brooks Koepka at Erin Hills. He has had another top-ten, T-6th at last year’s British Open, won by Cameron Smith at St. Andrews.

Did anyone foresee his victory? Not really; his odds when he teed it up on Thursday were 125 to 1. So if you had the foresight to see Harman’s potential, if you bet $25 on Harman winning, you would have won $3,125. Now in DraftKings, you could have made him one of your six picks for just $7,300. I had him on several of my cards; in my preview, he wasn’t one of my favorites, but I mentioned what an absolute bargain Harman was at $7,300; in DraftKing’s big millionaire game, 12.27% of the players picked Harman. The three players picked the most was Robert Macintyre at 22.12% (his cost was just $6,800), then Rory McIlroy was the next biggest choice at 21.15% of the players. Third was Tommy Fleetwood at 20.78%.

So why was Harman a good pick? In looking at Harman’s British Open record, his first start was at Hoylake in 2014. He finished T-26th, 13 shots back of winner Rory McIlroy. After that, Harman struggled, missing four cuts between 2015 and 2019. Harman got a taste of being in contention when he opened with a 65 in 2021 at Royal St. George and was a shot behind first-round leader Louis Oosthuizen. Harman shot 71-71-69 to finish T-19th, 11 shots back of winner Collin Morikawa. In 2022 Harman opened with a 73 at St. Andrews, and with rounds of 68-68-66, he finished T-6th and seven shots back of winner Cameron Smith. So we really couldn’t see a love for playing with the British.

The key for Harman winning was after a first-round 67; Harman shot 65 in the second round to lead by five shots. After that, it was just holding on for dear life, and he did it with rounds of 69-70. The one stat that stands out is his putting; he only took 106 putts, the fewest by a championship in the 24 years of British Open stats. He didn’t have a single three-putt for the week and had 34 one-putts. For the week, Harman didn’t miss a putt under five feet and only missed one putt inside ten feet. For the week, he gains 11.7 strokes with the putter.

We can point out that Harman only dropped shots on six holes (with six bogeys) for the week. Last year Smith dropped shots on three holes, with just two bogeys and one double. Looking at more of an even keel, when Tiger won at Hoylake in 2006, he made just seven bogeys., the same amount that Rory made in his Hoylake victory in 2014.

Again we go back to the main question, did we see this coming? The last time Harman won was in 2017, and many just thought he was too nervous of a player to win a major. When I call him “nervous,” I mean that Harman has too much on his mind, which would get him in trouble. The older you get with more experience, the more you can see all the problems associated with playing well. So Harman would overthink things, something that he didn’t do this week. Now a couple of things that Harman did well, along with putting, was hitting fairways; he was 42 of 56 for a 75% clip, the best of anyone in the field. For the week, Harman hit 48 of 72 greens which ranked T-14th. Of the 24 greens he missed, he got it up and down 18 times, and that 75% conversion rate was the best of anyone. But the one unknown stat that needs to be talked about the most was that Harman only hit into three bunkers all week and led the last 51 holes. The last time something like this happened was in 2019 when Shane Lowry led his final 52 holes and hit into just four bunkers in his British Open victory.

It was a dominant win. Can Harman do it again?

Of course, the big question is when someone wins a major, when can he do it again? Not to be negative, but in the 53 years of major championships, only five players can claim winning over the age of 36 and then winning another major.  Padraig Harrington was 36 when he won the 2008 British Open and, sure enough, won the PGA Championship in his next start. In 1994 Nick Price won the British Open at 37 and, like Harrington, won his next start at the PGA Championship. In 2010 Phil Mickelson won the Masters at the age of 39 and then won the 1993 British at the age of 43, and then the 2021 PGA Championship at the age of 50. Mark O’Meara won the 1998 Masters at 41 and, later in the year, also won the British Open. The record goes to Jack Nicklaus, who won the 1978 British Open at age 38, then won the 1980 U.S. Open, the 1980 PGA Championship, and then, at 46, the 1986 Masters. So, of course, Harman can achieve another major win, but I tend to doubt he will do it, sorry Brian.

So how succesful was Hoylake?

I was not there, but in emails by those at Hoylake, everyone was very positive. Despite poor weather, the course held up well, and it wasn’t a birdie fest like last year at St. Andrews. This was the third time they played at Hoylake after the long pause after 1967, and I think that the R&A knows what to do with the course and can set it up to be a very challenging test. It may not be as hard as Carnoustie, but what makes Carnoustie so hard is always the weather. Will the Open be back at Hoylake? You can bet that Hoylake will hold another Open in the next seven years.

What about Rory?

Many doubt that Rory will ever win another major. They are basing that on the fact that it will be ten years and 34 major starts since he won the 2014 PGA Championship. One thing people don’t tend to say in that period, Rory has 20 top-ten finishes and has been in the top-8 in eight of his last ten starts. Sure, his major season didn’t start well when he missed the cut at Augusta last April, but he was T-7th at the PGA Championship, 2nd at the U.S. Open, and T-2nd at the British Open. No other player can make that claim. Sure, Rory hasn’t won, but I think of it as a run of bad luck. He just wasn’t in the right place to take advantage of things. Of course, he didn’t do what Harman did this week, or the same as Shane Lowry in the 2019 British by playing great for 72 holes. Rory has not been able to put together 72 solid holes. This week Rory played his first 12 holes in two over and his last holes in eight under. Rory could have easily won last year’s British, only to have Cameron Smith have the nine holes of his life. We can say the same thing with Rory at last month’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. He played great, and unfortunately, he couldn’t make a birdie over the last 17 holes on Sunday. Wyndham Clark was able to keep it together over the last 18 holes, enough to clip Rory by a shot. Of course, I heard what Brandel Chamblee said about Rory may not have enough in the tank to win. Honestly, that doesn’t bother me. I think Rory has something left in the tank; he has to be in the right place at the right time, just like Phil Mickelson did when he won the PGA Championship at 50 years old. Things went perfectly for Phil, and those around him didn’t play well, giving the victory to Phil. Rory still has many good years left, and I have no doubts that he will find it to the victory circle in a major real soon.

This week and the 3M Open

With the major season-ending, we have the three FedEx Cup playoffs, and the Ryder Cup left. The focus for the next two weeks is on how players try to make it into the playoffs. For 40 years, if you were in the top-125, you retained your PGA Tour card. But this week has a twist; sure, at the end of the year, those in the top-125 will keep their cards for 2024. The big difference, the season doesn’t end after the Tour Championship. There are seven events after the Tour Championship, and nobody wants to play in them. That is because those seven will determine who retains their Tour card for 2014. So for a player having to play in the remaining seven events, it means they didn’t make the top 70, which gets you into the playoffs. That is the significant change for this year; after the Wyndham, you have to be in the top 70 to ensure you get into the playoffs and, for many, retain their tour cards. It’s remarkable how many players aren’t in the top 70. Shane Lowry is #73; of course, he won’t lose his Tour card, but he has played in the last five playoffs. Justin Thomas has not only been to the playoffs for the previous eight years, he has been to the Tour Championship for the last seven years. But that streak could end as Thomas is 75th in the rankings and not playing very well. But the streak that could end is Adam Scott. He and Matt Kuchar are the only players that have attended every playoff event since it started in 2007. For Kuchar, he is 56th in the rankings and will return for a 17th straight year. But for Adam Scott, who is 80th and probably won’t make it. I say that because he isn’t playing this week, so he will have to play well at Wyndham or not make it. So here are the players on the bubble this week.

• #66 Keith Mitchell
• #67 Ben Taylor
• #68 Ben Griffin
• #69 Sam Ryder
• #70 K.H. Lee
• #71 David Lingmerth – Not playing in 3M
• #72 Davis Thompson
• #73 Shane Lowry – Not playing in 3M
• #74 Lee Hodges
• #75 Justin Thomas
• #76 Justin Suh
• #77 Cam Davis
• #78 Garrick Higgo
• #79 Matt Wallace
• #80 Adam Scott – Not playing in 3M

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Course information:

• TPC Twin Cities
• Blaine, Minnesota.
• 7,431 yards     Par 35-36–71

2019 was the first year of the 3M Open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and when switched to the PGA Tour in 2019, remained successful.  The one thing about the course, the time it’s played, it seems to get tougher.  In the first year of 2019, the course played to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below par.  Ranking-wise, it’s T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier.  What happened in the events the first year was a very easy course that catered to long hitters.  But the course was a bit different last year.  Rough was up, and the PGA Tour tucked away the pins.  So more traditional players that didn’t hit are long done good.  The scoring average was up, 69.95, and the rank of the course also went up as the course ranked 23rd hardest. In 2021 saw a combination of rough, tucking of pins and a lot of wind blowing over 10 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph on Thursday as the course played to a 70.44 average, the 24th hardest for the year.  Last year a combination of thicker rough and winds blew the scoring average to 71.44, making it the 14th hardest course for last year.

Last year the weather made things harder, but because of the summertime, the course is dry and fast, along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year and temperatures in the 90s could make the course easier.  Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs meaning players have to be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bombers haven.  The greens are a bit small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again look for players to find the greens in regulation and have deceit putts at birdies.  Last year, 1,510 birdies were made, but I could see that go seriously up and match the 1,976 made in 2019.  I can also see the 52 Eagles made in 2019 matched, which is good for a course with only three par 5s.

Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in play off the tee), bunkers (14 in total), and rough.  Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have their way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players.  There is a total of 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 of them guarding the greens.

The big question that needs to be answered will be if the fans come back and are happy again to have a PGA Tour event.  In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19 and a half under par, and that was in tournaments that were only 54 holes.  In 2010 David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 for a 25 under-par total.  Now the Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards, and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials made some serious changes in 2018.  Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,431 yards, but par has been reduced to 71.  Still, for the longest hitters in the world, this won’t present any problems.  Another thing is that tournament officials are doing holes 7, 10, and 16 have tees so that the holes can play between 280 and 315 yards, making them drivable, but the holes are well guarded by water so that they won’t be automatic birdie holes.  The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so they will not be automatic birdie holes.

Despite the poor field, it’s still a PGA Tour event with great players, so that the home folks will be happy with this event like those folks at other popular events like the John Deere Classic.  One thing for 2023, it was dreadfully hot and muggy for the tournament, so that it will be survival of the fittest.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Twin Cities.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Cameron Young – $10,900
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Sungjae Im – $10,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,000
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,700
• Sepp Straka – 9,500
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,400
• Justin Thomas – $9,300
• Gary Woodland – $9,200
• Stephan jaeger – $9,100
• Cam Davis – $9,000

So making this week hard is the lack of marquee names.  It’s always hard in events that don’t have many marquee names because then you have a lot of players that were priced as middle tier are now the favorites.  So don’t take one of the high price players even though the feeling is good about Young, Finau, Matsuyama, Grillo, Thomas, and Woodland.  One of the great things about this week, players don’t cost a lot if you avoid these five players at the top, you can pick a lot more of those in the $8,000 to $9,300 range.  Now Cameron Young is our top guy at $10,900.  He played well at the British Open but couldn’t make any putts.  I feel he is a good buy, should he putt well you can be a winner with him. Tony Finau at $10,600, and I have no idea why.  He missed the cut at the British, and Rocket hasn’t played well since he won in May.  So pass on him. Just think you can do better, he is a big no for me.  The same with Sungjae Im – $10,300, yes, he was runner-up last year but hasn’t played well in months.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,000 could be considered, he was good at Hoylake and seemed to be back to normal.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,700 is ok and played well last week at Hoylake.  He also played well at Twin Cities with a T-2nd last year and T-3rd in 2020.  Sepp Straka at $9,500 is a hard choice.  His record at Twin Cities is not good, but he has played well of late, so yes, he is worth the cost.  Ludvig Aberg at $9,400 is a hard choice, he has played well of late despite missing the cut in Scotland.  Still, his cost is a lot for someone lacking experience.  Justin Thomas at $9,300 is a no, his game is in conflict right now, and it’s hard to understand his thoughts on it.  Gary Woodland at $9,200 is worth a look.  The course should suit him, and he has played ok of late.  Stephan Jaeger at $9,100 is a tough choice, yes has played well of late, but I don’t think Twin Cities suits his game.  Cam Davis at $9,000, could be ready to bust out, the course suits his game, and I feel he will do well.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,700 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Adam Hadwin is playing a course that suits him, and I think he is a smart pick for this week.  Patrick Rodgers at $8,500 could be worth the cost; he played well last week in the Barracuda and could carry over.  Mark Hubbard at $8,300, has played well of late, T-10th at Barracuda and T-6th at the John Deere.  Lucas Glover at $8,200 is a big yes for me, he was T-4th at Rocket Mortgage, T-6th at John Deere, and 5th at Barbasol.  Vincent Norrman at $8,100, has never played in this event, and the question that has to be asked is, can he continue playing well this week?  I say take a chance on him.  The same with Nicolai Hojgaard at $7,900, he played well in Scotland and the British and could carry over.  The only problem with him, it could be too hot for him.  Eric Cole at $7,800 is worth a go, he has played well the last couple of months this would be a perfect time for him to break out.  Alex Noren at $7,700, is a big yes for me, he played this event in 2020 and was T-3rd and has played well of late.  Cameron Champ at $7,600 is a big gamble, yes has missed 15 of 22 cuts, but he has two top-tens, and the course suits his game, one of the reasons he won in 2021.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the 3M

Slim pickings, basically, we are looking at someone that can make the cut.  Matt Kuchar at $7,500, fits the bill, has made 13 of 20 cuts.  MJ Daffue at $7,100, has made 19 of 28 cuts this year.  Erik Van Rooyen at $6,600, is worth a go, playing in the same group as his caddie, who Monday qualified, has had some good events.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the 3M Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• In 2020 we told you that looking at the seniors that played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those that won and finished in the top five were high up in hitting greens.  In 2021 not only did winner Matthew Woof hit it long, but he hit 60 of the 72 greens which ranked T-6th.  The same with 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he was 8th in driving and 22nd in Greens Hit.  The same with last year’s winner Tony Finau, he was T-6th in driving and T-3 in Greens Hit.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With the greens not having much undulations, good putters will do very well.  In 2019 runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the least of anyone in the field.  In 2021 Cameron Champ won thanks to his putter, he took just 109 putts and was co-leader.   So look for those at the top of the Strokes Gained Putting to play well. Here are those in the top ten of that list that are playing this week: Taylor Montgomery (2nd), Sam Ryder (5th), and Harry Hall (6th).
• Another important item that we saw in previous years and within the seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles.  Look for those players that, week in and week out, make a lot of birdies and eagles.
• As we have stressed, this event won’t see many marquee names on top of the leaderboard.  For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff did in 2019, Michael Thompson in 2020, and Cameron Champ in 2021.
• The weather should be very hot this week, with temperatures going into the low 90s with a bit of humidity.  Possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon, Other than that, it’s a good week on tap.