BlogWyndham Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For some, the Wyndham is the last way into the playoffs. But in years past, this was the last regular Tour event of the year. That has changed, as there are nine PGA Tour events for 2023 after the playoffs. So this week is about getting into the top 70 and playing in the playoffs. But for those above that, there will be events left to keep in the top-125 and retain their tour cards for 2024.

As for last week, Lee Hodges earned more with his victory; he also got into the FedExCup playoffs, going from 74th – 33. Sam Ryder finished T-7th at the 3M and went from 69th to 62, getting into the playoffs. Cam Davis finished T-10th and went from 77th to 69th, so he is on the bubble. Austin Eckroat didn’t help his cause by missing the cut at the 3M and dropping from 65th to 70th. For Eckroat, it’s been a slow ride down; he was 57th in the rankings after the Travelers but has dropped down, missing the cut at Rocket Mortgage and 3M. Another missed cut at Wyndham would spell not getting into the FedEx playoffs. The same with Ben Taylor, who was 59th in the rankings after the Travelers and now is 71st. The biggest surprise is Justin Thomas, who missed the cut at the 3M Open. He is now 79th in the rankings and is probably not only out of consideration for a wild card spot on the Ryder Cup, but to get into the FedExCup Playoffs, he probably needs a top ten at the Wyndham. Same with Shane Lowry, who is 76th in the rankings and needs a top-ten at the Wyndham. Even further down is Adam Scott at 81st. He has been to the playoffs every year since 2007, and unless he gets a top-five this week will probably not get in. Kevin Streelman has been to the playoffs every year since 2008, and he probably needs a top-three finish to keep the streak alive. After missing the cut at the Barbasol, it looked bleak for him as he was 117th in the rankings. But with a runner-up finish at the 3M, he is at 84th, and his streak is on life support as he will probably need a top-five for any chance. Martin Laird was T-2nd at the 3M and climbed to 111th, but he will need at least a top-three finish to get into the playoffs.

So we are seeing the importance of this event. Of the 156 players in the field, 42 are between 60 and 103 on the FedEx Point list. The only two players in that range not playing is #87 Joseph Bramlett, and I can’t find a reason for him not playing other than in his last four starts, Travelers, Rocket Mortgage, John Deere, and Scottish Open, he missed the cut, so maybe he is hurt and hasn’t said anything. Also not playing is Maverick McNealy, who has not played since missing the cut in Canada. He hurt his shoulder at Pebble Beach and hasn’t been in the top 30 in the ten starts he has played in, so that is probably why he isn’t playing this week.

One claim that will be made next week at the first playoff spot in Memphis is that only one player will tee it up and has played in every FedEx Cup playoff, and that is Matt Kuchar. He is the only player in the top-125 for every FedEx Cup playoff going back to 2007. For those wondering, Kuchar has made it to the Tour Championship nine times; the last was in 2019.

So in gambling terms, this brings in a different variable. In figuring out the correct equation, you have to consider some of the players’ nerves, what this week means for a player, and the pressure it places on them. For example, in 2020, Jim Herman came to the Wyndham 192nd on the points list. He would maintain his PGA Tour card in 2021 due to his win at the Barbasol Championship. He wanted to play in the FedEx Cup playoffs because, for each, there is bonus money for those in the top 120. Those in last place earn $101,000, which is a nice bonus. So Herman was a great pick despite being 192nd on the points list because playing the Wyndham was about money, not his future. Herman won the Wyndham, climbed up to 54, and played in the first two playoff events, finishing 64th and earning a $150,000 bonus. So could lightning strike twice?   You never know, Herman comes into this week 193 on the point standings, so he has to win to make it back to the playoffs. A couple of others to watch, Webb Simpson is 170th on the list and has finished in the top ten in nine of his 14 starts. He was 3rd in 2017, runner-up in 2018 & 2019, T-3rd in 2020, and T-7th in 2021. Last year he missed the cut, but he was also hurt. 2023 has been a terrible year for him, probably the worst since he joined the PGA Tour in 2009. The big question, despite playing poorly in his last start, he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage. Can the good vibes from past success at the Wyndham surprise us all? Or how about #111 Martin Laird? He has won four times on the PGA Tour, the last coming at the 2020 Shriners. He was T-20th at the Barracuda and T-2nd at the 3M. He has played in the Wyndham 11 times, and his best finish was T-4th in 2008. Could he shock us all with a victory? Another player to watch this week has to be Akshay Bhatia, who won in his last start at the Barracuda. Many thought that would get him into the playoffs, and that isn’t the case, as he is 99th in the rankings and probably needs at least a win or a runner-up. Now he has played twice at the Wyndham and missed the cut twice, so I don’t think he can win. Of the others between 70th and 100th, I can only see Kevin Streelman doing the need, the course suits his game, and he has a lot to play for.

Tom Kim

It’s a shame what happened to the defending champion. At the British Open, Kim slipped in the backyard of his rental house on Thursday and twisted his ankle. He was treated for what was called a grade 1 tear and was able to gut it out and finished T-2nd.  But we could see the pain he had, and anytime you hear the word “tear” in describing an injury, tear means weeks and months of idol time, and that is if you don’t need surgery. So it wasn’t shocking to hear Kim withdraw from his title defense at the Wyndham, and we can only wonder since we have heard nothing in over a week, how severe the ankle is? Guess we will have to wait, but I wouldn’t be surprised not to see Kim again until January.

Tournament information:

Created in 1938, the 2023 edition of the Wyndham Championship will be the 85th tournament. Initially known as the Greater Greensboro Open, the tournament has blossomed from its small roots. The event was the vision of the Greensboro Jaycee’s Chapter, which was but a year old when the idea was conceived. Many were in favor of the creation of a golf tournament; however, no one took steps to create an event until, at a meeting in the summer of 1937, Joseph Bryan put up capital to back the event. The PGA Tour placed the tournament on the 1938 schedule.

If Joseph Bryan is credited with being the backer, then Sam Snead is the owner of the event. His eight victories at Greensboro, including the inaugural event, were a record for most wins by a player at one tournament until Tiger tied him in several events. The Greensboro-based tournament had been played every year except for 1943 and 1944, when the event paused because of World War II.

The tournament name held until 1988 when Kmart became the title sponsor, and the event became known as the Kmart Greater Greensboro Open.  After an eight-year run, Chrysler took over in 1996, and in 2003 the Greater was dropped in favor of Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. That name held until 2006 when Daimler Chrysler pulled out as title sponsor, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over. Starting with the 2014 Wyndham Championship, it became the last event before the playoffs, so it has ramifications for the FedEx Cup Championship. The Wyndham Championship is the last event in which golfers, vying for a position in the playoff system, can earn points.

For 31 years, between 1977 and 2007, Forest Oaks Country Club hosted the event, but it wasn’t considered “fan-friendly,” and the course wasn’t very memorable.  One of the reasons that Forest Oaks got the event in 1977 from Sedgefield was because the course was too short and didn’t have the room and parking to handle big crowds.  It was a big disappointment for the members when they lost the event, and many lobbied to get it back.  With Wyndham taking over the sponsorship and having its offices nearby, and the membership invested $3 million in renovating the course and opened the doors for the return.  When the course was reopened in 2007 to rave reviews, it was decided to change venues for 2008 and has held the event ever since.

Course information:

• Sedgefield Country Club
• Greensboro, N.C.
• 7,131 yards     Par 35-35–70

Between 1938 and 1976 Sedgefield held the Wyndham Championship 26 times and was considered a tremendous old Donald Ross course.  Unfortunately, the course was short and small for galleries, so the event moved on.  Still, the course was considered a gem, and for years membership tried to lure it back.

Sedgefield, founded in 1925, is located in the rolling hills of Greensboro’s Sedgefield neighborhood. The club has hosted many amateur golf tournaments as well as 32 years of the Wyndham Championship. In addition to its Donald Ross-designed golf course, Sedgefield is perhaps best known for its signature clubhouse, a Tudor-style building housed in the framework of the original Sedgefield Inn built in 1925, the Atlantic Coast Conference was founded in this building in 1953.

A couple of years ago, the club entrusted North Carolina course architect Kris Spence with the job of restoring the course back to its original Donald Ross design while making adjustments to bring the course in line with the modern game.  Spence’s renovation added another 400 yards to Sedgefield, bringing its length to 7,131 yards. Par was 70 as the 18th hole was converted into a par 4.

Emphasis must be put on ball placement in the fairway to get the appropriate angle to the green. The greens at Sedgefield are very undulating and slope from back to front, with many falling off the edges into collection areas.  In 2013 Sedgefield played to a 69.383 scoring average, more than a shot under par for the field.  It ranked as the 23rd hardest of 43 courses for 2013.  In 2016 it played to a scoring average of 69.209 and ranked 38th out of the 48 courses for the year.  In 2017 the course played very easily to a 68.18 average and ranked 41st hardest course. In 2018 it played to a 68.69 average and ranked 40th.  In 2019 it played to an average of 68.18 and was 41st.  in 2020 it played to a 68.78 average and was 29th hardest, in 2021 it played to a 68.88 average and was the 35th hardest.  Last year it played to a 69.26 average and was the 27th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

So the course is challenging, but scores will be low.

It will be an exciting scenario for the players that a Donald Ross course will be used to get players ready for the Tour Championship in three weeks, which will be played on another Ross course at Eastlake, outside of Atlanta.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Sedgefield.

This is based on the most vital stats from Sedgefield C.C., data from last year’s Wyndham Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
For the third week in a row, the Tour plays a course where driving it straight matters a lot; the key to playing well at Sedgefield is to hit it straight and position your drives for the shot into the green. Like last week at the 3M at TPC Twin Cities and the week before at the British Open at Hoylake, hitting fairways and greens is essential. A look at the list of champions at the Wyndham since the event went back to Sedgefield in 2008 shows that the list of winners is guys that either hit short and straight or, in the case of hitting it long, players like Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim, and 2017 winner Henrik Stenson. Last year’s winner Tom Kim and 2021 winner Kevin Kisner both don’t hit it that far and are some of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour. The same with 2020 winner Jim Herman, who not only doesn’t hit it that far, he has a reputation of only playing well once or twice a year, and in most cases, he seems to win. Last year Tom Kim came into the event as a young kid trying to make it on the PGA Tour. Nobody knew who he was going into the Scottish Open. He was a young kid from Asia that got into some events and made the most of it. When he finished 3rd at the Scottish Open, he got temporary membership in the PGA Tour. When he finished T-47th at the British Open, T-26th at the 3M, then 7th at the Rocket Mortgage, he earned a PGA Tour card for 2023. The win at the Wyndham allowed him to play in the FedExCup playoffs. Kim’s key to winning the Wyndham was shooting 61 in the final round. The round was so good that it took im from being in 3rd place going into the final round to a five-shot victory. Kim hit 10 of 14 fairways and only missed one green as he made one eagle, eight birdies, and one bogey. For the week, Kim was T-4th in fairways hit, and T-16th in greens hit. Kim’s secret to the week was putting, he was 1st in strokes gained putting. Another thing that Kim accomplished as he was the first player in the Sedgefield era (2008) to win on his first start at the Wyndham. In the previous 50 years of the Wyndham, only Seve Ballesteros in 1978, Frank Nobilo in 1997, and Brandt Snedeker in 2007 were the only first-timers to win the Wyndham.
The previous year, Kisner came into the Wyndham as one of the favorites as he was T-3rd in 2020 and had two other top-ten finishes. So it was no surprise to see Kisner win. At the other end of the spectrum, 2020 winner Herman was the biggest longshot winner of 2020, strolling into Sedgefield 192nd on the FedExCup point list. He only made seven cuts in his previous 18 starts, and his best finish was T-27th in the winners-only Sentry Tournament of Champions. He hadn’t played in the Wyndham since 2015 but strolled in like he owned the joint. He not only led the field in greens hit with 63, but he was also straight off the tee finishing 4th in driving accuracy. So, of course, there is no rhyme or reason for how this happened. Just like the clock striking midnight and turning the Princess into a pumpkin, the same happened to Herman as he missed the cut at his next stop at the Northern Trust and finished T-40th at the BMW. Since winning the Wyndham two years ago, Herman has played in 66 PGA Tour events and has had only three top-20 finishes, a T-20th at the 2021 Barbasol, T-7th in 2022 at the second-tier Puerto Rico Open and T-14th at the 2023 Honda. Another incredible story was 2019 winner J.T. Poston. He is a very short hitter, coming into the week T-165th in driving distance. But when he is playing well, he hits it straight.
Another critical aspect of driving for the long hitters the holes that dogleg needs players to lay it up to avoid going through the fairway, and it’s always best to be in the fairways. The course is tree line, which is more of a hazard than the rough, which is less penal than it could be. It has been pretty dry this year, but over the two weeks, the Greensboro area has seen it rain four inches, the last time on Sunday the 30th, about a quarter of an inch. Despite that, I don’t think it will have any bearing on the rough, but with rain coming just about every day, the course will not be dry and fast as in past years.
Like any other great Donald Ross course, the greens are challenging, first in hitting them, but if you miss them, it’s a hard up and down. The greens are also pretty flat, and good and bad putters make many putts. So it’s a course that favors short hitters, those who scramble well, and average putters. Last week was a perfect example; winner Lee Hodges hit 58 of 72 greens which ranked T-9th and scrambled well, getting it up and down on all 11 of the 14 greens he missed to rank T-7th. He also putted well, ranking 4th in Strokes Gained Putting. This added to Hodges making 2 eagles and 25 birdies, the best for the week.
Last year at the Wyndham, Tom wasn’t as good as Hodges last week, but Kim was ok. He hit 57 of the 72 greens to rank T-16th. In scrambling, he got it up and down on 11 of the 15 greens he missed, ranked T-6th, and was 1st in Strokes Gained putting. This helped Kim make 25 birdies for the week, the best.
The same will have to happen this week for someone to win. One thing about Sedgefield, it’s a fun course to play, and yes, it’s challenging. It’s not going to be taxing like other courses on Tour; last year, Sedgefield was the 27th easiest course on Tour in 2022 with a 69.26 average, just a bit more than three quarters under par. Historically Sedgefield has played at the 68.92 average since 2008. This year mother nature is going to play a part in this. The forecast is for hot, muggy days with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s with showers on Thursday and Friday, with afternoon Thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday; each day will have just about a 50% chance of rain.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because putting the ball in play off the tee at Sedgefield is probably one of the most essential items on this Donald Ross course. Last year’s winner Tom Kim was 33rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, as he was T-4th in Driving Accuracy and T-16th in Greens in Regulation. Then getting the ball on the greens is important, and we all know how hard it is to hit a Donald Ross green. Next up is scrambling because the greens are hard to hit; when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. Last year Sedgefield ranked 5th in Scrambling, and our winner Kim ranked T-6th in Scrambling. Our next stat is Strokes Gained Putting, which is important. Last year Sedgefield was 12th in putting average while Kim was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, so to play well, it’s crucial to put well on this course. Last year 1,841 birdies were made, and only four other courses on the PGA Tour saw more birdies made. So we are using the Birdie average for our final category.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Look who picks up the most strokes on the greens.

*Birdie average: Players who average the most birdies made per round.

Here are the 137 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the players stats

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Sungjae Im – $10,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,600
• Russell Henley – $10,200
• Sam Burns – $10,000
• Adam Scott – $9,700
• Shane Lowry – $9,500
• J.T. Poston – $9,2000
• Justin Thomas – $9,100
• Si Woo Kim – $9,000

It’s the dog days of summer, the last event that means nothing other than it’s a way to gamble this week. I wish I could roll up on a hammock overlooking an ocean and enjoy the laziness of doing nothing this week. This would be a good week to take off after a year of majors and now on the cusp of the FedExCup playoffs. That is why the field is not great this week. Honestly, the week is more about saving players’ futures in the playoffs and in 2024 than playing golf this week. So here we go making a run on the players to look for. But remember this, for guys like Im on down, it’s getting ready for the big FedExCup push. Before we look at the candidates to pick for this week, we need to look at last week and how hard the landscape was. Cameron Young was the top dog at $10,900 and missed the cut. Sungjae Im was at $10,300 and missed the cut. also missing the cut was Sepp Straka at $9,500, Justin Thomas at $9,300, and Gary Woodland at $9,200. Yes, Tony Finau, who was $10,600, finished T-7th and earned 104 points. Hideki Matsuyama was at $10,000 and finished T-30th and earned  81.5 points. But how about the guys on top of the leaderboard? Winner Lee Hodges was not a popular pick; you could have bought him at $7,300, but only 6.4% of those picked him, and he earned 152.5 points. Martin Laird was T-2nd and could have been bought for just $6,500. Only .5% of the 47,058 players picked him, earning him 118.5 points. J.T. Poston was priced at $8,400, and for the 14.8% of players who took him, he earned 118.5 points. Kevin Streelman also finished T-2nd, and costing $7,000, only 1.4% of the players picked him, and he got 123.5 points. With fields like this, you have to be smart and not go after the marquee names. I wish I could have told you Lee Hodges would have the week of his life, but after two years, he won in his 65th start. Hodges’s own mother probably wouldn’t have bet on her son; Hodges had missed 16 cuts in 29 starts this year and, going into the 3M, had missed the cut in three of his last four events, and at the British Open, he shot 76-77. So how did this guy go from shooting 76-77 to 63-64-66-67 in a week? That is the great mystery of the PGA Tour and what makes playing these games so difficult; there is no rhyme or reason. The Philosophy for picking players, take ones that you feel can make the cut, and honesty, I would have never picked Lee Hodges, J.T. Poston, Martin Laird, and Kevin Streelman last week. So who is going to be the guys to pick this week? Off the bat, I will not pay $10,800 for Sungjae Im. I realize he was T-2nd last year at the Wyndham and has made the cut in his four starts in this event, but since the PGA Championship, he has only made four cuts in nine starts with a best finish of T-20th.  So pass on him. On paper, Hideki Matsuyama at $10,600, should be a great pick, his game is picture-perfect for Sedgefield, but he has only made three cuts in seven Wyndham starts. He had some good moments at the 3M, with a 64 in the first round and 67 in his final round. But still, the cost is way too high for a guy who will make the cut but probably only give you a top-20 finish. Russell Henley, at $10,200, should be a good pick. He has finished in the top ten in his last three Wyndham starts and has played well this year. Sure, he missed the cut at the British, but he is on a course he has had success on and is worth the price. Sam Burns at $10,000 is a tough proposition. He was T-13th in his only Wyndham start in 2020 and has had a good year, including a win at the WGC-Match Play. He, too, struggled at the British missing the cut, but he has done okay; he had a T-6th at Colonial, a course a lot like Sedgefield. I still think you can do better with cheaper offerings. Adam Scott, at $9,700, is someone you can say no to; yes, he was T-2nd at the Wyndham in 2021, but he hasn’t shown that he is worth the high cost this year. Yes, he makes a lot of cuts, but at $9,700, you are looking for more than making the cut. The same with Shane Lowry at $9,500; he just hasn’t shown us much in the last few months or in his five Wyndham starts. J.T. Poston, at $9,200, is a hard person not to pick. He played well last week at the 3M Open, and he won at Wyndham in 2019, but we have not seen historically he has never played well the week after a top-three finish. At $9,100, Justin Thomas will not be a trendy pick, the course doesn’t favor him, and his game is in disarray. But Thomas is still a great player, and who knows, he could surprise us. Still, I won’t pick him at the end of the day. Si Woo Kim at $9,000 is also a no, just too much money to make him worth it.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So this is the category we have to find some good picks in. I like Cam Davis at $8,800 because he can play well on courses like Sedgefield and played well last week at 3M. Denny McCarthy, at $8,700, is also a good pick, yes, he missed the cut at the British Open, but McCarthy can win at Sedgefield; his putting will help, and he hits it in the right place. We saw him finishing T-8th at the Wells Fargo, 2nd at  Memorial, and T-7th at the Travelers. Alex Smalley at $8,100 is my Lee Hodges pick for the week. Smalley has played great of late and has been okay at Sedgefield. Adam Hadwin, at $8,000, is also a person to look at. He was T-2nd at the Rocket Mortgage, and I think he can play well at Sedgefield. Eric Cole at $7,700 is a reasonable price for a guy who will make the cut and has played well late. Billy Horschel at $7,600 is also a gamble since he is hot and cold this year. His game is in flux, but he has played well at Sedgefield and was good last week at the 3M.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Wyndham

Have to say I love Webb Simpson at $7,400. He is a guy that has nine top-ten finishes in 14 starts at the Wyndham. Yes, he has struggled this year, but Simpson plays great at Sedgefield, and this could be his week. Brendon Todd at $7,400, is good for a guy who can make the cut and get you many points. Alex Noren at $7,300 is an excellent price for a guy that will make the cut and earn you points. He has played well of late; I have to think a top-ten is around the corner for him. Kevin Streelman, at $7,300, is a good pick, he is very motivated to get into the playoffs, and I think he will be as good this week as last week at the 3M. Martin Laird at $6,800 is a good choice, he played well last week at the 3M and will continue the good play. Brandt Snedeker at $6,500 is a gamble, but I think his record at Sedgefield is too good to pass on him; he will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wyndham Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Sedgefield is a very versatile course. Length is not critical because the course plays at about 7,131 yards, just a notch below average for a PGA Tour event. With length not being a factor, players are afforded the opportunity to use either driver or long iron off the tee. The most critical thing for the field is to manage the slope of the course. To do that, ball control and accuracy are essential.
• Now this tournament was made famous by Sam Snead, who won it eight times, the PGA Tour record for the most victories by a player in a single event. Snead captured the inaugural event in 1938, and when he won it for the eighth time in 1965, he became the oldest winner in PGA Tour history at 52 years, 10 months and eight days.
• Between 1949 and 1965, Snead was never higher than 8th and won $37,827, or about the same amount that the player in 28th place will win this week.  For the record, if Snead would have played all 17 events at the present purse of $7.6 million, his Greensboro earnings would have been around $9 million.  Oh, Snead is the only winner in Greensboro history to defend his championship a mark that won’t be matched this week with defending champion Tom Kim not playing due to injury.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Length is not an issue, so that opens things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver and settles for using a long iron for control. Past winners of the event are some of the best iron players on tour. The likes of Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Mark O’Meara, Davis Love III, and Steve Elkington have hoisted the trophy. Look for the winner to be able to manage the surroundings, as the undulations are the most challenging part of the golf course. There is a reason that 2015 winner Davis Love III won at age 51, and that is experience.  The past winners from Sedgefield, except for 2022 winner Tom Kim, 2019 winner J.T. Poston and Arjun Atwal in 2010, are all experienced players, so look for someone like that to win.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium at this Donald Ross gem, just like it was last week at TPC Twin Cities.   Hitting lots of greens goes a long way at the Wyndham Championship.  Look for the winner to hit greens in bunches.
• North Carolina and the Greensboro area in the summertime and is rife with heat and humidity, primarily since it was hot last week. This will be important because the bermudagrass greens will bake, making the undulated greens even more challenging.
• Talking about the weather, this could be a problem for this week.  It will be hot and humid all week at Greensboro, but the major problem is thunderstorms and rain, which will be a threat each day.