BlogFedEx St. Jude Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s the home stretch of the 2023 PGA Tour season. After 44 events spread over the last 11 months, for many, their season is over. Guys like Justin Thomas (71), Adam Scott (71), Shane Lowry (78), Matt Wallace (82), Joel Dahmen (84), Kevin Streelman (87), Gary Woodland (94), Alex Noren (101), Maverick McNealy (108), Jimmy Walker (124), and Austin Smotherman (125).

For all of the above, last year they would have been in the playoffs, but with the new system of just 70 in the playoffs, more players will be watching the playoffs on TV than playing in them.

Tournament information:

This is the 57th annual event for the recently changed FedEx St. Jude Championship. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as the title sponsor, and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990, when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event which lasted for 12 years.  Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017 and gave it up in 2021.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship, which used to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In the first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used, and Steve Stricker won.  Since then the FedEx St. Jude has moved away from Westchester and never went back. Lot’s of reasons for it not ever going back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not because of the course itself.

The future of the FedEx St. Jude changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019.  With Dell Technology leaving, that left the Boston market with no PGA Tour events.  But the FedEx St. Jude stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota and the course held the event in 2020.  After that, it was supposed to move around the New York and New Jersey area, but it was played for the last time in the New York, New Jersey area at Liberty National Golf Club.

Course information:

• TPC Southwind
• Germantown, Tenn.
• 7,243 yards     Par 35-35–70

The TPC at Southwind opened in 1988 and became the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic in 1989. The course was designed by Ron Prichard, with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. The course opened as a small, tight course with lots of trees, bunkers, and water hazards. Originally, Southwind featured zoysia grass on the fairways and bent grass on the greens. The course stayed this way until after the 2004 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Following the tournament’s conclusion, the course closed for renovation.

During the renovation, all of the greens were redone, and the grass was switched from bentgrass to Champion Bermuda Grass. Many of the fairways were narrowed and re-contoured to make an already tight course even tighter. Additionally, 15 new bunkers were added, bringing the total number of sand traps to 96, three of the 10 water hazards were enlarged, and more than 125 trees were planted on the course. Overall, the course yardage increased by more than 200 yards to its length of 7,244 yards. After the renovation, the course’s rating went up to 75.9, with a slope rating of 138.

Last year TPC played to an average of 69.16, making it the 30th hardest course on tour.  In 2021 when it held the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational,  TPC Southwind played to an average of 69.05 and was ranked 33rd on the PGA Tour.  In 2020 TPC Southwind played to an average of 69.55 and ranked 14th hardest on the PGA Tour.  It was the second time since they kept course stats that TPC Southwind played under par.  In 2019 it played under par for the first year at 69.50.  Still, the holes are tough as last year seven of the last ten holes played over par. four of the holes were in the toughest 300 holes on the PGA Tour in 2021, with the par 4 fifth hole being the 102nd hardest with a 4.217 average.

Before the 2021 WGC event, the course saw all of the bunkers completely overhauled, with several eliminated and a couple added. But overall, the course played about the same as it played in 2020.  For most of the field, the course is delightful to play.  If there is a key to winning at TPC Southwind, it’s hitting lots of greens.  The last eight out of the last 12 winners finished in the top ten in Greens in Regulation.  Last year Will Zalatoris was T-8th, hitting 51 of 72 greens. In 2016 Daniel Berger was 1st in that stat.

Which player has done the best at TPC Southwind over the last five years.

Over the course of the last five years, TPC Southwind has held three different events, the FedEx St. Jude Classic, the WGC-Fed Ex St. Jude, and now the FedEx St. Jude Championship.  So to judge who has played the best on the course over the last five years, we have provided this list of those in the field and their record at TPC Southwind.

Unfortunately, three of the top players aren’t on the field. Dustin Johnson, who won twice, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas won the event.

So here is the list. We give priority to those who have played the most.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Southwind.

This is based on the most important stats for the TPC Southwind, data from last year’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
TPC Southwind has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1989. Between then and 2018, it was the home of the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Between 2019 and 2021, it hosted the World Golf Championship FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Starting last year, it became the first event of the FedExCup playoffs, which two years ago was the Northern Trust played in the New York area.
The one surprising aspect of TPC Southwind was that many felt it would be a more challenging test. The last year FedEx St. Jude Classic was played at TPC Southwind in 2018; the course played to a 70.52 scoring average and was ranked 11th on the PGA Tour. Since course stats were kept in 2003, the oddity of TPC Southwind was that it always played over par. So when the WGC-FedEx was moved to the course in 2019, it played to a 69.50 average. Many wondered what had happened to the course. The course played again under par with a 69.55 average in 2020 and was ranked 14th hardest. In 2021 the average went down to 69.05, ranking 33rd on the PGA Tour. Last year it was 69.16 and was the 30th hardest course on tour. A couple of reasons for the drop; first, with the event played at the end of July and August, it didn’t rain as much, so the rough wasn’t as high and lush as it was when the old FedEx St. Jude Classic was played in mid-June. Another reason for the lower scores is that the old FedEx St. Jude had fields of 156, while the field for the World Golf Championship is under 80. Last year there were 120 players in the field, but this year, only 70, and since they are the best in golf, look for the scoring average to be in the 68.8 area.

Memphis has been pretty dry, hot, and muggy of late. Now it’s rainy at TPC Southwind on Monday, and they expect rain just about every day, but with the high temperatures, it won’t be enough to affect the course.

In looking at our four categories, our first for TPC Southwind are strokes gained tee-to-green. Last year the course ranked 20th in driving accuracy and 18th in greens in regulation, while winner Will Zalatoris was T-34th in driving accuracy and T-8th in greens in regulation, so he was 18th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2021 the course ranked 25th in driving accuracy and 20th in greens in regulation, while Abraham Ancer, who won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in 2021, was T-10th in driving accuracy and T-5th in greens in regulation, so he was 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. During the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude, the course ranked 22nd in driving accuracy and 9th in greens in regulation, while winner Justin Thomas was T-12th in driving accuracy and T-7th in greens in regulation, so he was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Over the years, this has been an essential stat for the champions. In 2019, Brooks Koepka won and was 6th. In 2018 Dustin Johnson won and was 1st in this stat. The same with the winner Daniel Berger in 2017 and 2016; he was the first in both years. In 2015, champion Fabian Gomez ranked 1st, which is pretty consistent, and the reason that strokes gained tee-to-green is essential.
The next significant stat is one-putt percentage; TPC Southwind ranked 49th (Thats mean there are more one-putts); it ranked 49th last year, 36th in 2020, 47th in 2019, and 45th in 2018. This means many players had many one-putts, probably because the greens at TPC Southwind are large at 12,276 Square feet. Last year’s winner Will Zalatoris was T-10th in this stat with 35 one-putts. In the previous year, 2021, Ancer was T-18th in this stat with 34 one-putts. In 2020 Justin Thomas didn’t do well in this state; he ranked T-51st with only 29 one-putts. The previous year Brooks Koepka was T-1st as he had 42 one-putts. In 2018, Johnson ranked T-30th; in 2016, he was T-52nd, while Gomez ranked T-2nd in 2015. Still, the norm is for the best players to have a lot of one-putt greens.
Our third important stat is scrambling; players will miss greens and get it up and down. The course ranked 38th last year, 34th in 2021, and 31st in 2020. In 2019 it ranked 37th and 31st in 2018. Last year’s winner, Zalatoris ranked 7th; in 2021, Ancer ranked 1st; Justin Thomas was 6th in 2020, while in the previous year, Koepka was 1st while Johnson was 4th in 2018, T-24th in 2016, and Gomez was 8th in 2015.
Our final category was birdie average; last year, it ranked 30th; in 2012, it ranked T-32nd; in 2020, it ranked 16th; in 2019, it ranked T-24th. In 2018 it ranked 10th; in 2017, it ranked T-10th; it was 14th in 2016; and in 2015 was 11th, which means it was hard to make birdies as the field average was 3.93 last year, 3.70 in 2020, 3.73 in 2019, 3.27 in 2018, 3.11 in 2017, 3.16 in 2016 and 3.15 in 2015. For Zalatoris last year, he made 21 birdies and ranked T-3rd. In 2021 Ancer made 20 birdies with ranked T-6th. In 2020, Thomas made 19 birdies, ranking T-8th, while in 2019, Koepka averaged 5.25 birdies per round and was 3rd. Johnson also averaged 5.25 in 2018 and ranked 1st; in 2016 was 5.00 and was T-1st, while Gamez averaged 5.00 and was T-2nd in 2015.
So yes, TPC Southwind can be considered a shotmaker type, of course, and we will probably get a shotmaker winner.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: A combination of hitting fairways and greens. So this is important to find a player that will do well in this stat.

*One-Putt Percentage: The figure that shows how many times a player one putts a green.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

The 70 of the 70 players from this year’s FedEx St. Jude field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the player stats.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,100
• Rory McIlroy – $11,500
• Jon Rahm – $11,100
• Viktor Hovland – $10,200
• Xander Schauffele – $10,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,700
• Rickie Fowler – $9,500
• Jordan Spieth – $9,300
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,100
• Collin Morikawa – $9,000

A week in which we will have to work hard to find some good picks.  Most weeks, we can find some marquee name or good player under $9,000, but we have to search hard for one this week.  At the British Open, I wrote about how careful it was to choose a marquee name like Scottie Scheffler, who cost $12,500.  Of course, on paper looks great and always gets in the top ten, but he didn’t play well at the British, and those that picked him only got 62.5 points.  Same with Rory McIlroy, who cost $11,900 but only got 78 points.  The winner Brian Harman, who cost $7,300, got 116 points.  So it’s important to think about the cost. If the player is over $10,000, you better be 100% sure he will perform because you are taking a gamble with him.

So off the bat, we see the ridiculous price of Scottie Scheffler at $12,100.  I realize how great of a year he is having, but the price is too high.  He hasn’t played great, so I don’t think Southwind fits his eye.  He missed the cut last year and was 14th in 2021, so take a break from Scottie this week.  I am also skipping on Rory McIlroy at $11,500.  He, too, missed the cut last year and was T-4th in 2019.  Yes, Rory was T-6th at the British and won the Scottish Open, but his price is too dear for us.  Jon Rahm at $11,100 is also too high, yes, he was T-2nd at the British and T-5th last year at Southwind.  But if Rahm doesn’t finish in the top three, you are spending too much for him.  Same story with Viktor Hovland at $10,200, his record is not great at Southwind, and after spending two weeks on vacation in Sweden know that he is fresh, but just don’t think he gets the points we need.  Things don’t get any better with Xander Schauffele at $10,600.  He has struggled to get into the top ten, he finished T-6th at Southwind in 2020, but again not worth the gamble.  We get out of rarified air with Patrick Cantlay at $9,800, but again he doesn’t give us much confidence with his game at TPC Southwind, plus he hasn’t played great this summer.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,700 doesn’t make me any happier. Again has struggled at TPC Southwind and hasn’t shown us much since his T-6th at the Scottish and T-3rd in Canada.  I am not very keen on Rickie Fowler at $9,500, despite him winning at the Rocket Mortgage.  Just think there are better, more affordable choices.  Same with Jordan Spieth at $9,300, he missed the cut last year at Southwind and has not played great in months.  Now the first player I feel comfortable with is Tommy Fleetwood at $9,100.  He was T-4th at Southwind in 2019 and has played well of late, finishing in the top ten in four of his last five starts.  He is the type of guy that is ready for his first win, and it could happen this week.  I do like Collin Morikawa at $9,000, even with him missing the cut at the British.  He was T-5th last year at Southwind and has had a good summer, other than the British.  His price is manageable, and I feel he will do well this week.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So I need to make a lot of good picks in this price range.  Hard to believe that I only liked two from the other category, but I can see a lot of great picks in this price range.  Off the bat is Jason Day at $8,900.  He was T-6th at Southwind in 2000, but I think he is healthy again, and the British Open showed he is ready to win again.  Tony Finau at $8,700 is a good pick, he was T-5th last year at Southwind, and the fact that he was T-7th at the 3M is a good sign.  Finau needs a good finish as he is on the borderline to get into the Ryder Cup.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,600, is also the best pick so far.  Yes, his game is in flux right now, but he has a great record at Southwind, T-4th in 2019, T-6th in 2000, and T-5th last year.  Now we have the last two major winners in this price range, Wyndham Clark is $8,500 and a possibility.  I am not going with him, his Southwind record is just a T-28th last year, and he has struggled since the U.S. Open.  As for British Open champion Brain Harman at $8,300 think the course is good for him, he was T-3rd last year.  He is on a high and I think we go with him.  Cameron Young at $8,200 is a toss-up, he was good at the British but couldn’t putt.  At the 3M, he was struggling, I feel he will be good this week.  Sam Burns at $8,100 is a big yes for me, he was T-14th at the Wyndham last week, and I like that he was T-2nd at Southwind in 2021.  Many will ask the question if Sepp Straka at $7,700, is back on track.  I say he is, and coming to a course he did well out last year, losing the playoff.  Also, I like Corey Conners at $7,600.  He has been very consistent at Southwind, and I feel his price is perfect for us.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the FedEx St. Jude

Gave you a lot of choices in the $7,500 to $8,900 category.  Good news some good, cheap bargains like Lucas Glover at $7,400.  I have liked him all summer, but I got burned with him missing the cut at the 3M, he made up at Wyndham with an impressive win.  Like that Glover was T-3rd last year at Southwind, I would continue to ride Glover.  I like J.T. Poston at $7,300.  He has four top-sevens in his last five starts and has done ok.  At the least, he will make the cut and earn you some points at a cheap rate.  The best bargain has to be Cam Davis at $7,200.  His record at Southwind is consistent, he was T-13th last year.  Like that he was T-7th at Wyndham and T-10th at 3M.  He is a must-take.  Harris English at $7,000 is another must-take.  He won at Southwind and was 4th in 2001.  He was T-33rd at Wyndham.  Eric Cole is another can’t miss at $6,900, he was T-14th last week in Greensboro and has had a great season.  Brendon Todd at $6,800 is not a have-to-take, but if you need a cheap player that will give you points, Todd is a good choice.  He was T-7th last week at the Wyndham.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• In picking a winner, it should be more feel than strategy.  The most important stat to look for is players high up in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  It’s no surprise to see that 14 of the last 19 winners have been in the top ten in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, with eight of them leading that stat, including 2020 winner Justin Thomas, 2018 winner Dustin Johnson and 2017 champion Daniel Berger.  So for this week, Scottie Scheffler is 1st on this year’s list, followed by #2 Rory McIlroy, #4 Patrick Cantlay, #5 Keith Mitchell, #7 Viktor Hovland, #9 Cam Davis, #10 Tyrrell Hatton and #11 Cameron Young.
• In trying to pick a winner, look at those that seem to be just starting to play well.  Maybe this means those that have had a good finish in the British Open, 3M Open Rocket Mortgage, Emiliano Grillo was T-6th at the British and T-10th at 3M.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium. Just like in a U.S. Open, hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  In the last 24 years, six champions led the greens hit category, and 20 of the 25 were in the top-11 of this category.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
• Look for a winning score of 266 this week, that’s the average winning total since TPC Southwind was first used in 1989.  Last year Will Zalatoris won with a 265 total.
• Since 1989, nine champions (Dicky Pride in 1994, Notah Begay III in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012, Harris English in 2013, Daniel Berger in 2016 & ’17, Brooks Koepka in 2019, Justin Thomas in 2021 and Will Zalatoris last year) were younger than 30.  Six of them were over 40, the oldest being Woody Austin in 2007 at 43 years, 4 months, Greg Norman in 1997 at 42 years, 4 months, and 2006 winner Maggert who was 42 years, 3 months.  Last year’s winner Abraham Ancer was 30 years, 5 months, 17 days old.  In 2019 Brooks Koepka was 29 years, 2 months, 25 days, while in 2016 (also won in 2017), Daniel Berger was 23 years, 2 months, and 5 days old, making him tied for the youngest winner in Memphis.  Bob Lunn in 1968, was also 23 years, 2 months, and 5 days old.  Another oldie was in 2011 when Harrison Frazar was 40 days short of his 40th birthday, while Brian Gay in 2010 was 37 years, one month old.
• Last but not least, the weather.
• It’s Memphis, and it’s August, so of course it’s going to be hot, muggy, and stormy.  Each day will be in the low-90s, but it will feel more with very high humidity.  No real rain is in the forecast, but this time of year, Memphis gets afternoon thunderstorms.  Making it hotter, there is very little wind in the forecast, which will make the scores lower.  The course will be a bit wet every day.