BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say that the FedEx St. Jude Championship turned out better than some thought.  Reducing the field from 125 to 70 made the event cleaner.  Not only did it create more interest for Wyndham that the field was reduced to 70, but we never missed the 55 players that weren’t in the field.  We had a big race to see who got in for this week, and we saw Cam Davis shot 67 on Sunday and Hideki Matsuyama shot 65 on Sunday to make the top 50.  With those additions, two dropped out of the top 50 Mackenzie Hughes (went from 44 to 51) and Nick Hardy (went from 49 to 52).  For this week Chris Kirk (29th) and Sam Burns (30th) are on the bubble with #31 Sahith Theegale, #32 Justin Rose, and #33 Kurt Kitayama knocking on the door.  For #45 Cam Davis, #46 Cameron Young, and #47 Hideki Matsuyama it will take another great finish to find a way to East Lake.  For Matsuyama who has made it to East Lake the last nine years in a row, he has a lot riding this week.

Player of the Year

Still have to think that the winner of this week and next will be the player of the year.  Lucas Glover will not be the man unless he runs the table and wins this week and at East Lake, the odds of him winning four in a row is slim to done.  Have to think that Glover is the winner of the Comeback of the Year.  Still have to think that the three leading candidates are Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, with Rahm getting the nod for his Masters’ win and the fact that he won four times, while Scheffler and McIlroy only have two wins for the year.

Have to say this, I couldn’t picture a better course for Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy than Olympia Fields, and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the three wins this week

Justin Thomas

At the Wyndham, Thomas came within a shot of getting into the playoffs.  He had a very impressive streak going, since joining the PGA Tour in 2015, he had been to the playoffs every year and has been to East Lake the last seven years in a row.  That all ends with his disastrous year, and the big question is when will Thomas reappear.  As of now, he isn’t eligible to play again until the Fortinet in Napa next month.  Frankly, if he was smart, he would venture out to Napa, he was T-4th in 2020, T-8th in 2017, and T-3rd in 2016, so it’s a great place for him.  As for the Ryder Cup, I give him two chances of getting a Zach Johnson pick, slim and none.  Not getting into the playoffs is a big blow because I can’t see Johnson picking a guy that wouldn’t play for five weeks.  There are so many others that deserve a pick, off the bat Lucas Glover is one of them.  Also have to think about Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, and Jordan Spieth.  All of them played in Memphis and playing this week, so that makes Thomas’ last weeks of play not very important.  Of course, we have to look at Thomas’ stellar record in team play, in the Ryder Cup, he is 6-2-1, but those two losses came in singles play.  In the Presidents Cup, he has a 10-3-2 record, but again, he has lost all three of his singles matches, which has to be looked at.  Yes, Thomas would be a valued member of the team based on past experience, but when Captain Johnson has to worry about the way he is playing, sorry, don’t see Thomas in Rome next month.

So where does that leave him?  The Fortinet and Mayakoba are the only events he has played in on the schedule.  As we have said, the Fortinet has good memories, but what after that?  Thomas is signed up to play in the Nedbank on the DP World Tour.  The event is in South Africa in November, and it’s obvious that he got some first-class tickets and a nice appearance fee to play there.  After that, he probably would play at the Hero World Challenge in mid-December, but the question will be if he can qualify, that could be a problem.  Since he hasn’t won in over a year, that eliminates the Sentry TofC, so that probably means his first start will come at the Sony Open in Hawaii.  This is new territory for Thomas to experience. Maybe this is a great time to take the next three months off and play for the first time in South Africa.  No matter what, we know that Thomas will regain his mojo and be ready to go for 2024

Tournament information:

• The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, this will be the 117th edition of the event
• From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco, to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.
• In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.
• This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name changed to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013, it went for the first time to Conway Farms.  In 2014 it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, going back to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016, and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship.  In 2018 it was played at Aronimink, in 2019 at Medinah, in 2020 at Olympia Fields. In 2021 it went to Caves Valley, outside of Baltimore, and last year it was played at Wilmington Country Club, and the 2021 BMW was played at Caves Valley, outside of Baltimore.  Next year the event will be played at Castle Pines in Colorado, the site of the International between 1986 and 2006.  In 2025 the BMW returns to Caves Valley, and in 2026 goes to Bellerive, which hosted the BMW Championship, the 1965 U.S. Open, and the 1992 & ’18 PGA Championship.  It was just announced that Liberty National in New Jersey will host the 2027 BMW Championship.

Course information:

• Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
• Olympia Fields, Ill.
• 7,366 yards     Par 35-35–70

This year the BMW Championship returns to Olympia Fields C.C.. which has been steep in major championship history. It held the U.S. Open in 1928 and 2003, the PGA Championship in 1925 and 1961, and the U.S. Senior Open in 1997.  In 2020 the BMW was played at Olympia Fields, with Jon Rahm beating Dustin Johnson in a playoff. The North Course also held five Western Opens on it, the last being in 1971. In 1968 Olympia Fields held the Western Open which was not only won by Jack Nicklaus, but it was the first tournament that Tom Watson ever played in and he made the cut. In 2003 when the U.S. Open staged the U.S. Open, it was a championship of two different courses. The first three rounds, the course saw low scoring as conditions made the course play soft as Jim Furyk shot 67-66-67, his 10 under par totaled by three shots. But on a windswept final round, he shot 72 to win by three over Stephen Leaney. Nobody who was in the field for the U.S. Open 20 years ago is in the field this week.  Here is a list of those that played in the 2020 BMW and how they finished:

• winner – Jon Rahm
• T-3rd – Hideki Matsuyama
• 5th – Tony Finau
• T-6th – Matt Fitzpatrick
• T-8th – Brendon Todd
• T-12th – Rory McIlroy
• T-12th – Patrick Cantlay
• T-12th – Brian Harman
• T-12th – Byeong Hun An
• T-16th – Tyrrell Hatton
• T-20th – Scottie Scheffler
• T-20th – Collin Morikawa
• T-25th – Xander Schauffele
• T-25th – Russell Henley
• T-33rd – Corey Conners
• T-40th – Adam Hadwin
• T-40th – Harris English
• T-40th – Viktor Hovland
• T-51st – Nick Taylor
• T-56th – Sungjae Ibm
• T-59th – Max Homa
• T-59th – J.T. Poston
• 64th – Jason Day
• T-65th – Tom Hoge

Before the 2020 BMW Championship, the last big event held at Olympia Fields was the 2015 U.S. Amateur, which Bryson DeChambeau won, beating Derek Bard 7&6 in the finals.  Here is the list of the players that were in this amateur, who are playing this week:

• Jon Rahm made it to the quarterfinals before losing to Derek Bard 1 up.
• Sepp Straka made it to the round of 32 before losing to Derek Bard 6 & 5
• Denny McCarthy made it to the round of 32 before losing to Austin James 3 & 2
• Cameron Young made it to the round of 32 before losing to Jon Rahm 7 & 6
• Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, and Cam Davis played in the championship but didn’t make it into the Match Play portion.

Even though the course was laid out in the Age of hickory golf in 1916 by Tom Bendelow, Wilie Park Jr was mostly responsible for the design of the course. 12 of the 18 holes are located on the hilliest of the gently rolling land, not too hilly but with enough elevation changes to make it challenging. A creek runs through the property but doesn’t come much into play. There are two holes with water, but again I don’t expect them to come into play much. There are 85 bunkers and many guard the greens, which are 5,200 square feet in size. The greens have a lot of undulation and will be hard to putt, it will take a good putter to win. Most of the holes are straight away, and there aren’t many blind shots. The fairways are not only tree-lined, but the rough is tough, and all the holes have fairway bunkers that must be avoided. The course will favor a player that hits it straight, and length will play very little in this since the total yardage is 7,366. Not only is accuracy important off the tee but hitting greens are important because around the greens between sand and high grass will make it difficult to get it up and down on greens missed. Of course, hitting it long will help, but if you stray off the fairway, it will create a cascade of problems in getting a par.  Now the course has gone through many updates, before the 1961 PGA Championship, before the 1968 Western Open, and the biggest before the 2003 U.S. Open.  In that update, architect Mark Mungem was given photos of what the course looked like in the 1920s and did his refurbishments by changing the greens and the bunkering to bring the course back to that look

Scoring will be tough because there are only two par 5s, the 1st, which is 626 yards, and the 15th which is 606 yards, so they won’t be pushover birdie holes. Look for both holes to play just a notch under par for the week. As for the par 4s, of the 11 of them, seven are over 450 yards which will be impossible to get home on if your off the fairway. Now the weather has been rainy the last couple of weeks, so things will be soft. For the days of the championship, they are forecasting for it to be ok, morning thunderstorms on Thursday but then dry for the last three days.  Temperatures will be in the mid-80s on Thursday and Friday, heating up to 87 on Saturday and 93 on Sunday. If the course drys up, the winning score may not get into double digits for the first time since Memorial.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the North Course of Olympia Fields Country Club:

As we said last year, on the eve of the BMW Championship being held at Wilmington Country Club, there are about a dozen great golf courses in this country that could have a PGA Tour event. Last year the world got to experience Wilmington Country Club, and the year before Caves Valley, both courses Patrick Cantlay won. In 2020 Olympia Fields held the BMW, and Jon Rahm beat Dustin Johnson in a playoff. Now the great thing about the BMW is they go to a great course each year. In 2019 they went to Medinah, the site of the U.S. Opens, the PGA Championships, and the Ryder Cup. In 2018 they went to Aronimink, a course outside of Philadelphia that has seen a PGA Championship played on it. The event has also been to Crooked Stick and Cherry Hills, both sites with a major championship. The point is there have been a lot of great courses that have hosted the BMW Championship.
This week the PGA Tour returns to one of those incredible gems, Olympia Fields Country Club. The course is held in the 2020 BMW and is about 35 minutes south of Chicago. The North Course of Olympia Fields has held its share of championships, including the 1928 and 2003 U.S. Open, the 1925 and 1961 PGA Championship, and five Western Opens, the last in 1971 won by Bruce Crampton. The course is a gem, laid out in 1916 when hickory clubs were the norm. The course is of the tradition of most courses built in the 1920s, parkland courses on rolling terrain with a stream roaming through. The course is tree-lined and very well bunkered and has rough, so driving the ball is essential. You have to find the fairways because the greens are small targets to hit, with sand guarding the front part of them. The greens are 6,000 square feet with a lot of undulation and will be hard to putt. Making things even more demanding, if you miss the green, it’s like any course of the region, hard to get up and down to save par.

The course is a gem; it held the BMW Championship three years ago and was a big success since it had the U.S. Open in 2003. Unfortunately, in 2003, the course was soft the first two days of play, and scores were low, which the USGA didn’t appreciate. So in making the course more challenging, conditions dried up and made the final round super hard. Since then, the course has not played into the USGA’s future plans, but the PGA Tour, searching for courses in the Chicago area, gave it a try. It was a big success for the 2020 BMW, so big they have returned. Unfortunately, in 2020, because of COVID, they didn’t allow fans to the event, but this year that will all change.

We have very little data to base our conclusions to get our four categories since Olympia Fields doesn’t hold a regular event on it every year. But we have the data from 2020, and the course is set up the same way, so our four categories are a good barometer for what it will take to win this week. We are also comparing the stats from Jon Rahm, who won by beating Dustin Johnson in a playoff, and also including Johnson’s stats. The things to watch for, Accuracy will be the key to winning at Olympia Fields, not only in driving Accuracy but precious iron play into the greens. This course demands a great shotmaker, and when you miss a green, you will have to show the skill of handling both sand play and pitch shots from gnarly rough around the green. If that isn’t enough, a poor putter won’t cut it on this course. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds, so good lag putting is required along with the nerves to make most of those nasty five and six-footers. When Olympia Fields held the 2020 BMW Championship, it played to a 71.82 scoring average, with was the 4th hardest course on tour in 2020. With the right conditions, this course is a bear, an example of that was the final round of the 2003 U.S. Open, which was played at 73.03. It showed how hard the course can play if the greens get baked and are sped up. I don’t expect that to happen. Still, an average of close to par would be acceptable for the week.

So this is based on the most important stats for the Olympia Fields, based on what I feel is essential based on what happened at Olympia Field in 2020. Of course, weather plays a factor in scoring, and with the course being a bit wet, the temperature high, and conditions soft, the scoring could be low. But I see very little rain in the forecast for this week, so that the course will dry out each day, and by the weekend, it could be very firm and the greens very quick. But leading up to this week, there has been a lot of rain, so expect the rough to be even harder to manage.
Since it’s crucial to not only keep it in the fairway but also drive it far, I use a stat that is a bit old and not used much, but I feel essential for Total Driving which adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week. In 2020 the course ranked 36th in driving distance and 1st in driving Accuracy showing that the fairways were the hardest to hit for the 2020 season. Winner Jon Rahm was 6th in Driving distance and T-13th in Driving Accuracy, so he was 1st in Total Driving. Runner-up Dustin Johnson, who lost a playoff to Rahm, was 8th in Driving Distance and T-18th in Driving Accuracy, and 2nd in Total Driving. So we can see the importance of this stat when the winner and runner-up were 1st and 2nd in the state.
Our second category is Greens in Regulation, the number of greens hit from the fairway. To score and score well on this course, hitting greens is critical. In 2020 57.85% of the field hit the greens for the week as the course ranked 6th hardest. The winner Jon Rahm hit 51 of 72 greens and was T-2nd in the field. Runner-up Johnson hit 49 of 72 greens and was 5th best.
Our third category is Strokes Gained Around the Green. This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from the short grass and the bunkers around the greens, which have close to 50 of them around them. In 2020 Olympia Fields was 7th in scrambling and 29th in Sand Save Percentage. Winner Rahm was T-25th in Scrambling and T-10th in San Save Percentage and ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Runner-up Johnson was 33rd in Scrambling and T-31st in Sand Save Percentage as he ranked 51st in Strokes Gained Around the Green.
Our last category is Strokes Gained Putting. This is a great way to determine how a player performs on the greens since putting is vital to winning at Olympia Fields. In 2020 the course ranked 2nd in Putting Average and was 20th in putting inside 10 feet. As for the winner Jon Rahm, he was 6th in Putting Average and T-38th in Putting inside 10 feet and for the week, ranked 6th in Strokes Gained Putting. As for runner-up Dustin Johnson he was 15th in Putting Average and T-25th in Putting inside 10 feet, so he was 9th in Strokes Gained Putting.
So as we can see, in looking at who plays well at Olympic Fields is the player that drives it far and straight and hits a lot of greens

*Total Driving: It adds up the rank of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy to come up with a total rank. This will determine which players will hit it long and straight, two items very important for the week.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: This is a combination of all skills in getting it up and down from not only the short grass but from the bunkers around the greens.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt, calculating the percentage the player should make the putt, and coming up with a stroke figure.

THE 50 PLAYERS FROM THIS YEAR’S FIELD WITH STATS FROM 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to find all the player’s stats

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $12,100
• Scottie Scheffler – $11,600
• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,500
• Viktor Hovland – $10,300
• Xander Schauffele – $10,100
• Jordan Spieth – $10,000
• Collin Morikawa – $9,800
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,700
• Max Homa – $9,500
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,400
• Sungjae Im – $9,300
• Rickie Fowler – $9,200
• Lucas Glover – $9,100
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,000

The good news for this week is no cut.  The bad news, as we wrote last week the cost of the best players are way too high and not worth the risk.

Last week Scottie Scheffler cost $12,100 and finished T-31st making just 75 points.  (winner Lucas Glover earned 118.5 points).  Now Rory McIlroy cost $11,500 and finished T-3rd, and earned 117.5 points, so those that picked McIlroy did well.  But if you took Jon Rahm at $11,100, he finished T-37th and earned just 75,5 points.  Viktor Hovland cost $10,200 and finished T-13th, and earned 94.5 points.  Xander Schauffele cost $10,000 and finished T-24th, and earned 76 points, another bust.  Patrick Cantlay cost $9,800 and finished 2nd, earning 109 points.  Tyrrell Hatton cost $9,700 and was a bust finishing T-43rd and earning just 70 points.  The same with Rickie Fowler at $9,500, he finished T-58th and only made 61 points. So like we said last week, the decision to take a McIlroy, Scheffler, Rahm, or even Cantlay is big since the cost of them is so much.  Last week in the big DraftKings pool, it was won by a person who had 633.5 points.  He took Rory McIlroy ($11,500), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400), Russell Henley ($7,800), Corey Conners ($7,600), Lucas Glover ($7,400), and Cam Davis ($7,200).  Of the four picks in the $7,000 range, Henley earned 101.5 points, Conners earned 102 points, Glover earned 118.5 points, and Davis earned 105 points.  So yes, in some cases, picks at the $7,500 level are just as important as McIlroy, Scheffler, or Rahm.

So who do I recommend?  I can’t take Rory McIlroy at $12,100 or Scottie Scheffler at $11,600, the price is too high.  McIlroy is playing well and was T-12th at Olympia Fields in 2020, but the cost is a problem.  Jon Rahm at $11,200 is a thought, the course is perfect for him, and we should disregard his T-37th finish last week in Memphis.  Even with the poor finish Rahm earned 75.5 points, so if that is the worst, it’s not bad.  I can see many picking Patrick Cantlay at $10,500.  He came close in Memphis, has won the BMW the last two years, and was T-12th at Olympia Fields.  His game is suited for the course, and $10,500 is not terribly high, so he is my first pick.  Not going to touch either Viktor Hovland at $10,300, Xander Schauffele at $10,100, Jordan Spieth at $10,000, or Collin Morikawa at $9,800.  There is no high side to any of them; they will not win, and frankly, the cost is high for the return.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,700 is a great choice, yes, he has not played in the BMW since 2019 (finishing T-11th).  I like how well he has played, he was T-6th at the Scottish Open, T-10th at the British, and T-3rd last week in Memphis.  Max Homa at $9,500 may be a good choice, yes his record at the BMW is not great outside of California, his record on tough courses is not good, but his record of late is promising.  He was T-12th in Scotland, T-10th at the British, and T-6th in Memphis, so he could be on the brink of something good.  Now the guy I really like a lot is Hideki Matsuyama at $9,400.  Of the bat, he was T-3rd at Olympia Fields in 2020.  His game of tee to green is perfect for the course, he seems healthy and free of pain and played great in his final round in Memphis.  I am not buying into Sungjae Im at $9,300, yes makes a lot of cuts and money, but he doesn’t do enough to make the price worth it.  Rickie Fowler at $9,200, is a possibility, he has not played at Olympia Fields and since winning in July, hasn’t played great, but I think he wants to make a splash to get him on the Ryder Cup team.  Many will like Lucas Glover at $9,100, but I can’t see him keeping up this winning pace, so he isn’t a great choice.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,000 doesn’t do much for me. Sorry he isn’t one of my choices on hard courses, and he has not played great since Scotland, so another pass for me.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I feel that Wyndham Clark at $8,800, is a good choice.  Olympia Fields is much like Los Angeles Country Club, and I think Clark will play well this week.  Cameron Young at $8,500 is a good choice, Olympia Fields is a lot like the courses he grew up playing in New York, and I can see a good finish for him.  Tony Finau at $8,300 is a good bet, even though I have been burnt by him lately.  Again he has been up and down all year, I thought he would be good at the FedEx last week, and finished 64th.  I like that he was 5th at Olympia Fields in 2023, so we know he can play well on the course, but again we can’t be sure about him, but the price is cheap.  Russell Henley at $8,200 is a great price for a guy that is playing well, he was T-6th last week in Memphis.  We still expect some good things from Matt Fitzpatrick, who is $8,000 this week.  He was T-6th at Olympia Fields in 2020 and showed some signs of playing well, still, he was a disappointing T-66th last week but look for him to improve this week.  Cam Davis is just $7,800 and just the person for this week.  He has been in the top 35 in his last six starts and is looking to do the impossible and find his way to East Lake.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship

We are at the price range in which a good finish could help at a cheap price.  Byeong Hun An at $7,500, isn’t going to win, but if he can finish T-12th as he did at Olympia Fields in 2020, your a winner.  He has been consistent this year and is a great pick for the money.  Here is a winning pick, hard to believe that you can get Keegan Bradley at just $7,100.  He is good on tough courses and won’t let you down this week.  Andrew Putnam at $6,800 is a great buy and one to jump all over.  He has been very consistent, a good putter if he can have a great week with the driver, he will do great.  Another versatile player that is cheap is Eric Cole at $6,300.  Yes he isn’t the greatest driver and iron player, but he is good around the greens and putts great, he has not missed a cut in nine events and has gotten a lot of points.

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Remember that very few have seen the course, and this tends to help those long-shot players. Lots of patients in learning the course also will take a lot of patients in which birdies will be the norm this week.  It’s a very enjoyable course, and the players will fall in love with it.
• Emphasis must be made on making many birdies because those whose games are good will be able to score low.
• Length and the lack of accuracy will give bombers a significant advantage.  Still, we can’t say the course is a layup, it’s not.  For those that are too greedy and get in trouble, they can make bogeys and higher.
• Sharp iron play will also help along with the imagination when you do get in trouble.  The key is to be peaking about Wednesday right before the start of the championship.
• Look for good lag putters to have a significant advantage because Olympia Field greens are small and will be fast and give good putters a field day.