BlogTour Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

• So we have gotten to the last FedEx Cup event of the 2022-23 season. It’s hard to believe the year has gone by so fast, and it’s been challenging for the players. LIV golf became even more prominent in 2023, creating an enormous rift between players. But in June, when PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan announced a merger with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, the money behind LIV golf created an even bigger problem. Many players felt Monahan gave up the fight that the players had supported. Many didn’t take multi-million dollar payouts to stay loyal to the Tour. So this didn’t go over very well, and close to three months after the original announcement, the facts of the arrangement are still sketchy. In a press conference today at East Lake, Monahan had very little new news, so we may be in the dark over this for another two to four months.
• As for the season, things went well, as 36 players won the 46 events. At the top, we didn’t see much change as Jon Rahm won four times, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy won twice as the three have dominated most of the season. We saw Max Homa, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, and Lucas Glover winning two events each. We saw 11 first-time winners on Tour (Adam Svensson, The RSM Classic – Nico Echavarria, Puerto Rico Open – Kurt Kitayama, Arnold Palmer Invitational – Taylor Moore, Valspar Championship – Matt Wallace, Corales Puntacana Championship – Nick Hardy, Zurich Classic of New Orleans – Davis Riley, Zurich Classic of New Orleans – Wyndham Clark, Wells Fargo Championship – Vincent Norrman, Barbasol Championship – Akshay Bhatia, Barracuda Championship and Lee Hodges, 3M Open).
• As for the majors, we saw Jon Rahm win his second major at the Masters, and Brooks Koepka win his fifth major at the PGA Championship. Newcomers to the major winning club were Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open and Brian Harman at the U.S. Open.
• As for the ages of the winners, 16 players won 22 titles in their 20s. 18 players won 22 titles in their 30s, while Justin Rose and Lucas Glover won three events in their 40s.
• Some of the year’s big surprises were the return of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Lucas Glover to the winning circle.
• On the other end of the spectrum, after winning an event for eight straight years on the PGA Tour, Thomas was winless in a season where his best finish was 4th at the Phoenix Open.   Many have looked to see what is wrong with Thomas, but statistics may not be the problem. We saw a slip from Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler. Sure, they made lots of money, but priorities changed when they got married and had kids. I feel that is what happened to Thomas, and he will have to find a compromise.
• Another disappointment was Patrick Cantlay, who won twice in 2022 and seven times in the last five years. In 2023 he was runner-up twice at the Shriners Children and FedEx St. Jude. Many thought that after winning three times in 2022, Xander Schauffele would bust open in 2023. He did have 11 top-ten finishes but was runner-up just once at the Well Fargo. Jordan Spieth didn’t win in 2023 but had seven top-ten finishes, including a runner-up at the RBC Heritage. Will Zalatoris was also a disappointment, not for his poor play but because he was injured all of the season and, after seeing 7 starts, had surgery just after the Masters and will not play until November.
• As we look at the Tour Championship, 25 of the 30 players have been to East Lake, while eight have played in five or more Tour Championships.
• For the first time since 2013, the Tour Championship won’t be the year’s last event. With the PGA Tour going back to a calendar year, for the first time since 2013, seven events will be played in the next two months, and 55 players will have to be careful not to lose their PGA Tour card if they drop outside of the top-125 after the RSM Classic just before Thanksgiving. The jury is out on how this will play. After nine seasons of the Tour starting in September, seeing what people think of these seven upcoming events, with the season beginning in January, will be interesting. When the Tour went to this September start, it was a way to get away from the NFL, and in the beginning, marquee players took the rest of the year off after the Tour Championship. But in the last few years, players realized that by not playing until January, they were way behind on FedExCup points, and most of them played a few events in the fall. With the FedExCup basically over after this week, the fields will be sparse with no marquee names. Still, golf is golf, and people will still have a reason to gamble in golf during the fall, but the main goal of the fall events will be to make sure to retain a player’s PGA Tour card for 2024.
• So for many of us, the Tour year will end this week, but we will officially have seven events left. Considering that only 70 players participated in the playoffs instead of 125, I think it was a big success. It was much cleaner and easier to handicap, and I don’t believe anyone missed out that 55 players weren’t in Memphis. Many, like myself, felt that we had to watch golf in the fall instead of football when there was a big event like the CJ Cup. But that won’t be the case anymore. I also think that it’s essential that we realize that golf will be from January to the end of August, with those months having the most significant events on the calendar.

New Format that is not new anymore

After the 2018 Tour Championship, the PGA Tour started a new format to combine the Tour Championship with the FedExCup points list. We explained it in our East Lake Key Fantasy stats. Still, the bottom line is that come Thursday,  Scottie Scheffler will again begin the week at 10 under, with Viktor Hovland at 8 under, Rory McIlroy at 7 under, Jon Rahm at 6 under, and Lucas Glover at 5 under par. The next five (Max Homa, Patrick Catlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, and Matt Fitzpatrick) will begin at 4-under.

The next five (Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, and Xander Schauffele) will begin at 3-under.

From there, regressing by one stroke per five players until those ranked Nos. 26-30 start at even par (Sam Burns, Emiliano Grille, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sepp Straka).

The Format has created much buzz, and players and fans like the new system. In a way, it’s like a team winning the first three games of the World Series. All they have to do is play well in the remaining games to win the World Series. But if they do what Justin Thomas did in 2019 and play poorly, they will be like the New York Yankees, who won the first three games of the 2004 American League championship series only to lose the next four games to the Boston Red Sox.

For those that have to start at one under or event par, it will be a challenging task to cover ten shots over any player, but to do it at the same time, having to jump over 20 of the best players in the world is an impossible task, sure mathematically feasible but not realistic. The reward is very high; this week’s winner will get $18 million. Second place pays off $6.5 million, with $5 million going to 3rd and $4 million to 4th. The player in 10th place gets $1 million, so a lot will be at stake. The player in the 30th spot will get $500,000, so a lot of money will be on the table. Once we get over the staggered start and get to the final round, it will seem like a regular tournament, but with the difference of $11 and a half million between the first and second, we could see one of the most expensive putts ever seen on the 72nd green. Last year was a perfect example of that as Scheffler had a six-shot lead going into the final round and coughed up the victory with a final round 73 to Rory McIlroy, who shot 66 on Sunday. The round could have been the most costly in golf, $11 and a half million for Scottie.

What’s great about this format?

We have seen that the Format created a lot of excitement and eliminated the confusion of trying to see who would win the FedExCup. Of course, Federal Express, who foots the bill, will get top billing and more for their buck with this Format. The hope is to elevate the FedExCup playoffs and standings and crown just one champion on Sunday. More important, the PGA Tour has given the leading players a better chance at winning, but at the same time, didn’t forget that player like Sam Burns, Emiliano Grille, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sepp Straka, who starts on Thursday ten shots back of Scottie Scheffler, if they put on a record four days of golf there is a possibility of winning the FedExCup playoffs. So it’s just what the PGA Tour and Federal Express want, just one World Series or Super Bowl for golf to end the season and crown a FedExCup champion.

The importance of making it into the Tour Championship

The PGA Tour has made getting into the top 30 a critical feat in the last couple of years.

Money isn’t the only prize for playing at the Tour Championship. Being in the top 30 brings on a lot of other great things. You get to play in any tournament you want to play in 2024, including getting into all four majors. They also get to play into all eight $20 million Signature events next year: The Sentry, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, RBC Heritage, The Players Championship, Travelers Championship, The Genesis Invitational, the Memorial Tournament, Wells Fargo Championship.

So you can see that, at the minimum, the importance of making it to East Lake. But for every winner, we can find others that came close but won’t get in.

Course information:

• East Lake Golf Club
• Atlanta, Ga.
• 7,346 yards     Par 35-35–70

Tom Bendelow, around 1905, designed East Lake, and in 1913, Donald Ross completely reworked the course, and even though the layout is the same today, it was altered by George Cobb before the 1963 Ryder Cup matches.

East Lake has had a somewhat tumultuous existence. From its inception until the early 1960s, East Lake was one of the top courses in the entire country. It was Bobby Jones’s home golf course; he learned to play the game on this course. The Ryder Cup was held at East Lake in 1963. However, problems began at the Atlanta Country Club as the area got seedy. Higher-income people started emigrating to the suburbs, leaving only lower-income households to inhabit the once-storied Country Club area. In the ’60s, the membership abandoned the site and moved across town to Atlanta Athletic Club, with East Lake becoming a public course.

For the next 30 years, the golf course and the community floundered as the area became the most dangerous part of Atlanta. Police often referred to the site in the 70s & 80s surrounding East Lake as “Little Vietnam.”

In 1993, Tom Cousins, an esteemed real-estate developer and East Lake resident joined a charitable foundation to restore the East Lake Golf Club and the surrounding community to its previously leviathan stature. The two-phase plan included the restoration of all housing and an overhaul of the old golf course. Rees Jones was hired to do the restoration in 1994.

Jones revamped the grass, changed many tees, and completely changed the landscaping. Unfortunately, when Jones did all of the work, it wasn’t thought the event would be played in September, weeks after the hot summer season. Everyone was surprised in 2007 when the greens were stressed by a combination of drought and 28 days of heat over 90 degrees in August. With these conditions, there was not enough time for the bentgrass greens to adequately recover from Atlanta’s hottest summer on record amid a drought. And it was determined that the Crenshaw creep bentgrass would be replaced with Bermudagrass in the best interest. In making the changes to the greens, Jones also changed some of the contours of the greens and created some roll-off areas on the greens.

Also, the green on No. 7 was changed and pushed back 43 yards, extending the par-4 hole to 394 yards. The fairway and green on No. 17 were repositioned left, closer to East Lake’s shoreline, and new tees were added on No. 13, 15, and 16. New fairways bunkers were added on the left side of No. 3, 7, and 16 and to the right side of No. 15. Bunkers were reconfigured on the green at No. 16 and expanded on the right side of the green on No. 14, and the left side of No. 4 green. New hole locations were created on various greens, and low-cut, roll-off areas were installed off of greens on No. 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, and 17.

Today, the course plays as a 7,346-yard, par 70. It features Meyer Zoysia grass on the tees and fairways, while the rough is Tifway Bermuda Grass. The greens are also Bermudagrass. Thus it can tolerate the hot days of August/September and be in great shape for this week.

The signature hole at East Lake is the Par 3, 15th. The hole plays at around 211 yards, but the downhill shot eliminates some distance. The tee was expanded, and if officials want, they can stretch the hole to 225 yards. The green itself provides the challenge of the hole. Golfers must attack a peninsula green with water left, right, and in front of the green and part of the backside. Adding to the difficulty is a small bunker on the front left and the green, making this an island green. Another change: the tee at 8 was expanded, and the hole can play to 470 yards even though the “official” yardage on the hole is 455. Since the 2019 Tour Championship, trees have been removed on 15, and a new tee makes that hole seem more significant.

In 2015 the course played to a 70.38 average and was the 17th hardest course on tour. For years the course played with a par 3 finish. The hole was challenging, and this created terrible finishes. So for 2016, the nines at East Lake were reversed as the PGA Tour was hoping to create a more exciting finish. They got that as the new par 5 18th hole began a lot more drama as the par 3, the ninth hole was, who in previous 15 years was the final hole. In 2016 Rory McIlroy birdied the 72nd hole to get into a playoff. It was the first time in the history of East Lake at the Tour Championship that the winner birdied the 72nd hole. That year the course played a lot easier, to a 69.61 average, and was the 27th hardest course on Tour. In 2017 the course played to a 69.38 average and was the 31st hardest course on tour. In 2018 it played to a 69.62 average and was the 24th hardest course on tour that year. In 2019, East Lake played to a 70.03 average and was ranked the 14th hardest course on tour. In 2020 East Lake played to a 68.92 average and was ranked the 24th hardest course on tour. In 2021 the scoring average was 68.81, which was the T-36th hardest course on tour. Last year the course played to a scoring average of 67.91, making it the 44th easiest course on tour.

The course has been playing much easier recently, but that will change after this year. After play on Sunday, bulldozers will start stripping off the grass as the course undergoes a dramatic renovation. Led by Andrew Green, who did the upgrades to great reviews of Oak Hill, home of this year’s PGA Championship. The course routing won’t change as Green will get rid of trees to help grow grass on greens. He is making the greens bigger and will shift bunkers. The overall intent is not to make the course harder. It’s to make East Lake more exciting and more like it used to be. To that end, more short grass will be around the greens to encourage a greater diversity of recovery options. Like he did at Oak Hill, watching the players play East Lake will be more interesting.

Let’s look at important stats for East Lake players this week.

This is based on the most vital stats from East Lake G.C., based on data from last year’s Tour Championship and using data from all the players with stats from 2023.

This is a classic Tom Bendelow design that Donald Ross completely reworked, a course that favors the shot maker and one that hits lots of greens. The course was considered one of the best in America in the 20s and 30s, but things turned around with changes in the community in the 50s and 60s. The course held the 1963 Ryder Cup on it, and George Cobb made some changes. The club fell into some tough times in the 60s and 70s, with members deciding to move to a new site. With the move, the course became a public course and was in serious shape. It took Tom Cousin, an important real estate developer in Atlanta, to bring the course back from its low point. Ross Jones did the restoration in 1994, but the goal was to get it back to Donald Ross’s changes, which he did correctly.
The course is a gem because each hole is tree-lined, so you have to drive it reasonably straight. The most crucial aspect is hitting greens, in the 22 times the course has held the Tour Championship, only two champions have been out of the top ten in greens hit (Bill Haas in 2011 and Tiger Woods in 2018), and eight of the winners including 2021 winner Patrick Cantlay led that stat. The greens are also hard to putt, and since most of the greens are built up, you miss a green, so scrambling becomes key. The bottom line is this isn’t a course for the power hitter, short hitters have as much chance of doing well as long hitters.
Before continuing, we must mention that after the last putt drops on Sunday, the course will be closed for a year as it undergoes a massive renovation. The aim is to make the course more closely resemble the one that Bobby Jones and others played decades ago. Several holes will have major changes to resemble the original Donald Ross routing more closely.

So in looking at this year’s Tour Championship, we have to talk about the new format that went into effect in 2019. In previous years it seemed as if there were two events in one, which created confusion. In the 12 years of the FedExCup between 2007 and 2018, 8 times, the FedExCup winner and the Tour Championship winner were the same. It became a noticeable thing when Xander Schauffele in 2017 and Tiger Woods in 2018 won the Tour Championship but didn’t win the FedEx Cup. Just the excitement of Tiger winning the Tour Championship drowned out any excitement of Justin Rose winning the FedExCup playoffs. So the PGA Tour decided to try a new format for the 2019 Tour Championship. With the new format, the Tour Championship winner is also the FedEx Cup playoffs winner. They did that by taking the points after the BMW Championship and giving the players a point advantage based on their finish to start the Tour Championship. The winner would start the Tour Championship at 10 under, the person 2nd in the FedExCup standings would begin at 8 under, and the player in 3rd start the Tour Championship at 7 under par. They staggered the start in a way that if you are 6th in the FedExCup list, you started the Tour Championship at 4 under and worked down the list that those players between 26th and 30th on the points list started at even par, ten shots back of the leader of the FedExCup points race. So statically speaking, the person 30th in the FedExCup race could still win but has to cover ten shots and slip past 29 players is a tall order. On the surface, that seems like a lot, but last year Rory McIlroy started six shots back and was able to make up those strokes off of Scottie Scheffler, as McIlroy beat Scheffler by seven shots, so anything is possible.
So for this year, Scottie Scheffler will again begin the week at 10 under, with Viktor Hovland at 8 under, Rory McIlroy at 7 under, Jon Rahm at 6 under, and Lucas Glover at 5 under par.
The next five (Max Homa, Patrick Catlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, and Matt Fitzpatrick) will begin at 4-under.
The next five (Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, and Xander Schauffele) will begin at 3-under.
From there, regressing by one stroke per five players until those ranked Nos. 26-30 start at even par (Sam Burns, Emiliano Grille, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, and Sepp Straka). Now for players 20 and below in the FedExCup and will find themselves 9 or 10 shots back of Scheffler, it will be like entering the Indy 500 in a hybrid car. It’s hard enough to cover ten shots over any player, but to do it at the same time, having to jump over 20 of the best players in the world is an impossible task, sure mathematically feasible, but not realistic.

In 2019 the first year the format was used, Justin Thomas started at 10 under but was caught and passed by three other players. The winner was Rory McIlroy, who shot 267, which was ten shots better than Thomas. So despite having a 5-shot lead over McIlroy, he only was 3 under par, so he finished 13 under par. McIlroy, who shot 13 under, started the week at 5 under, so he was 18 under. Xander Schauffele began the week at 4 under par, and with his 270 score, he was 14 under and took 2nd. Brooks Koepka started the week at 7 under and, with his 274 total, ended at 13 under to T-3rd with Thomas.
2020 was different as Dustin Johnson was the leader of the FedExCup and thus started out at 10 under. He shot 11 under 269 and won by three shots over Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Schauffele was remarkable as he started at 3 under but with his 265 total was able to take 2nd place, but he wasn’t good enough to catch Johnson. In 2021 Patrick Cantlay led the FedExCup point list and started the week at 10 under. He shot 269 (-11), and the score was T-4th for the week. Since he started the week at 10 under, with his ten under reward finished at 21 under, a shot better than Jon Rahm, who started the week at 6 under, and with his 14 under par performance for the week finished at 20 under and 2nd place. Kevin Na also shot 14 under par but started the week at 2 under, so his 16 under total got him 3rd place. Xander Schauffele was 12 under for the week, but since he started at 2 under, he finished at 14 under and was T-5th. Cantlay was a bit lucky because Tony Finau started at 8 under shot even par, so his 8 under total finished T-11th. The same with Bryson DeChambeau, who started the week at 7 under but shot a 6 under 274 to finish the week 13 under and 7th. So Cantlay wasn’t the best for the week but did do good enough and with some luck of those close to him at the start, was able to win.
When the new format came about, many people weren’t happy. Some said it was taking away from the Tour Championship, and no money was won. It was ok in the first year when Rory McIlroy not only won the tournament after making up the five shots over Justin Thomas, but he was the low score of 267. In 2020 Xander Schauffele was the low scorer at 265, but Dustin Johnson shot 269 to hold onto the tournament and become the first leader on Thursday morning to lead after 72 holes. In 2021 Jon Rahm and Kevin Na shot 266 but started too far back of Patrick Cantlay, who won by a shot.
Last year McIlroy was the best player for the week, shooting 17 under. Sungjae Im shot 16 under and like McIlroy, was six back at the start. As for Scheffler, he was 10 under but it was a shot back of McIlroy as Scottie finished T-2nd.
After four years, everyone agrees that the new format is good and does bring out both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup race. Even playing on DraftKings, it’s weird that some players have an advantage, but that is reflected in the price of the player. One hint for those in DraftKings, look at the birdie average and par breakers list to help make picks.

So, in our four categories for this week, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because putting the ball in play off the tee at East Lake is very important, probably one of the essential items on this Donald Ross course. Last year East Lake was 19th in Driving Accuracy. In looking at Rory McIlroy, who won, he was 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (Out of 29 players) in Driving Accuracy. Patrick Cantlay, who won in 2021, was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-10th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. The year before, the winner Dustin Johnson, was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green while he was 28th (out of 30 players) in Driving Accuracy. Rory McIlroy, who won in 2019, was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy. The year before, Tiger Woods won, and he was T-3rd in Driving Accuracy and 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Then getting the ball on the greens is essential, and we all know how hard it is to hit Donald Ross greens.
Last year East Lake ranked 33rd in Greens in Regulation, and Rory McIlroy was T-4th in Greens in Regulation. The previous year, Patrick Cantlay was T-1st in hitting greens. In 2020 Dustin Johnson was T-5th. The year before in 2019, McIlroy was T-5th in Greens in Regulation. In 2018 Tiger Woods won and was T-14th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst finish in any East Lake Champion in Greens in Regulation. Still, it shows that anything can happen.
That is why next up is scrambling because the greens are hard to hit when you miss the green, you have to get it up and down to win. Last year East Lake was ranked 40th in scrambling, and in winning, McIlroy was 23rd, getting it up and down 55.56%, 10 of the 18 greens missed. The previous year Patrick Cantlay was 16th, getting it up and down 58.82%, 10 of 17 greens missed. In 2020 the winner, Dustin Johnson, was T-13th, getting it up and down 14 of 22 times. In 2019, McIlroy was 5th as he got it up and down 68.18% of the time. The previous year Tiger was 1st in scrambling, getting it up and down 70.83% of the time.
The last and vital stat for those playing a Donald Ross golf course is putting, last year, the course ranked 45th on the PGA Tour. In Strokes Gained Putting, last year Rory McIlroy was 2nd, in 2021 Patrick Cantlay was 14th, in 2020 Johnson was 12th while in 2019 McIlroy was 11th, and in 2018 Tiger Woods was 2nd

One last thing, this week’s format will make it hard to judge who could win, as half the field has been eliminated. But if Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Lucas Glover falter early, it will open up many more players’ chances and make the event very interesting. The one thing about this format, on paper, it looks great, and many think that we can put either Scottie Scheffler’s or Viktor Hovland’s name on the trophy. But after seeing what happened to Justin Thomas in 2019, having the lead for 72 holes is a challenging proposition. Weather is also going to play a part as it’s going to be very hot, each day will be around 98 each day.  So the big question will be, with this forecast will it change the characteristics of East Lake? With the course firm and hard, more players will have trouble hitting fairways and greens, it opens up the possibilities for those who aren’t great shotmakers to win.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Greens in Regulation: Players that hit the most greens in regulation

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

Of the 30 players in the field, 30 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all 30 player stats

DraftKings tips

The field is only 30, and with staggered to-par totals, it’s going to make Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Lucas Glover very popular picks.  But in DraftKings, making birdies and eagles, plus playing low, plays an essential role in earning points.  So here is a cheat sheet to help you find a player with the most production value this week.

First up is birdie average

As you can see, Jon Rahm is first, Patrick Cantlay is 2nd, and Scottie Scheffler is third.

But we need to find a player that is more manageable cost-wise.  Rickie Fowler is 11th and cost $9,000.  Keegan Bradley is 12th and costs $8,100.  Tony Finau is 13th and costs $7,500.  Sungjae Im is 16th and is $8,500.

Our second stat is Par Breakers

The same problem exists, Jon Rahm is 1st, Patrick Cantlay is 2nd, Scottie Scheffler is 3rd, Viktor Hovland is 4th, and Rory McIlroy is 8th.  All of these players are very expensive, so we have to look for players with a better price.  Rickie Fowler is 9th and cost $9,000.  Tony Finau is 13th on the Par Breaker list and only $7,500.  Now there are some cheap players that are high in Par Breakers, Collin Morikawa is 20th and costs $7,700.  Tom Kim is 22nd and costs just $7,900.  Tyrrell Hatton is 24th and costs only $6,900.  The best bargain, Nick Taylor, is 34th and only costs $5,000.

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,400
• Rory McIlroy – $13,000
• Viktor Hovland – $12,500
• Jon Rahm – $11,600
• Max Homa – $10,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,800
• Xander Schauffele – $10,500
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,000

Just remember this week is not an ordinary PGA Tour event.  There are only 30 players in the field, and with Scottie Scheffler starting at 10-under, it’s supposed to give him an advantage for leading the FedExCup rankings.  So that is why figures seem out of wack as the top three players are over $12,000, while on the other side, there are eight players under $7,000.  But before you get suckered in on picking one of those over $12,000, remember this. If you pick Scheffler at $13,600, that leaves you $36,400 to make five other picks or an average of $7,280.  Most of the eight players under $7,000 are not worth considering.  So think about who has the most firepower, who makes the most birdies and eagles, those are the players that will give you the most points.  Another thing to remember, yes, winning is important because you gain 30 points.  But let’s say you take Scheffler at $13,400, and he wins but has very little offense of making birdies and eagles, that 30 points honestly means very little.  Try to find the person with the best shot at making eagles, earning 8 points.  In looking at the history of East Lake, in the last eight years going back to 2015, 69 eagles have been made, of those in the field this year, here is the list of those that have made the most eagles:

• Xander Schauffele – 5
• Rory McIlroy – 4
• Jon Rahm – 2
• Scottie Scheffler – 1
• Matt Fitzpatrick – 1
• Sungjae Im – 1
• Jordan Spieth – 1
• Tony Finau – 1
• Viktor Hovland – 1
• Patrick Cantlay – 1
• Jason Day – 1
• Tyrrell Hatton – 1
• Max Homa – 1

Now making birdies is also important, a birdie gets you 3 points, so if you make 20 birdies, that’s 60 points.  Since 2015 at East Lake, 3,479 birdies have been made, with the most being Rory McIlroy, with 138.  The next best is Jon Rahm with 103, Xander Schauffele with 102, Tony Finau with 94, and Jordan Spieth with 80.  Now what about Scottie Scheffler, who has played three at East Lake and made 45 birdies (15 per event).  Also, Patrick Cantlay has played in five Tour Championships and made 63 birdies, so that is a 12.60 per-event average.

Here are some others to think about:

• Sungjae Im, with 68 birdies in 4 starts
• Rickie Fowler, with 55 birdies in 4 starts
• Jason Day, with 53 birdies in 4 starts
• Collin Morikawa, with 50 birdies in 3 starts
• Viktor Hovland, with 48 birdies in 3 starts
• Scottie Scheffler, with 45 birdies in 3 starts
• Corey Conners, with 42 birdies in 3 starts

So let’s get down to the chase on all this, for Draftkings, I am hesitant but will endorse Scottie Scheffler at $13,400.  Sure, he has a big advantage to start, he was runner-up at the BMW Championship and makes a lot of birdies.  But remember this, by taking Scottie, you probably can’t take anyone else over $10,000   The same thing with taking Rory McIlroy at $13,000, yes he will make a lot of birdies and possibly an eagle or two, but taking him makes it hard on the other picks.  Viktor Hovland at $12,500 is a no for me, yes, he is playing well but look at this chart, and you can see winning the week before the Tour Championship does not give you an advantage.  I don’t think Hovland can do what Billy Horschel or Patrick Cantlay has done.

• 2012 Rory McIlroy won BMW, next week was T-10th at East Lake
• 2013 Zach Johnson won the BMW, next week was 7th at East Lake
• 2014 Billy Horschel won the BMW and won the next week at East Lake
• 2015 Jason Day won the BMW, next week was T-10th at East Lake
• 2016 Dustin Johnson won the BMW, and next week was T-6th at East Lake
• 2017 Marc Leishman won the BMW, next week was T-24th at East Lake
• 2018 Keegan Bradley won the BMW, next week was T-26th at East Lake
• 2019 Justin Thomas won the BMW, and next week was T-3rd at East Lake
• 2020 Jon Rahm won the BMW, and next week was 4th at East Lake
• 2021 Patrick Cantlay won the BMW, the next week also won at East Lake
• 2022 Patrick Cantlay won the BMW, next week was T-7th at East Lake

Jon Rahm at $11,600 is a no for me, he just hasn’t played well since the British Open.  Max Homa at $10,900 is a yes for me, played well at East Lake last year and has played well of late.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,800 is high and is a toss-up for me.  He has played well at East Lake but didn’t last week at the BMW, so it’s up to you to decide.  Xander Schauffele at $10,500 is a yes for me, even with his poor play this summer.  Of anyone in the field, he has played the best of anyone at East Lake, in six starts hasn’t finished higher than 7th, so you know he is going to play well.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,000 is a question mark, he hasn’t played well over the summer but did finish T-2nd last week.  East Lake is a lot like a U.S. Open type, of course, but still, I don’t have faith in Matt.

*Players in that $7,500 to $9,700 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I really like Wyndham Clark at $9,100, yes, he has never played at East Lake, but there feel his game suits East Lake.  Tommy Fleetwood at $8,800, is a good pick, he has been playing well, and I think this could be the week for him to go low.  Sungjae Im at $8,500, surprised us with a runner-up last year and could do the same this week.  Collin Morikawa at $7,700, is priced right and could be someone that not many will think of.  The same with Tony Finau at $7,500, he has played well at East Lake, and since he is so far back will be looking just to go low.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Tour Championship, those under $7,500

Jason Day at $7,400 seems like a good price for a good player, but I wouldn’t touch him since his wife is due to have a baby in the next week. Tyrrell Hatton at $6,900, is a must-do player, has played well at East Lake, and is playing well now.  The same with Jordan Spieth at $6,700, he makes a lot of birdies and has won at East Lake, we can’t pass on him.  Nick Taylor at $5,000, makes up for taking either Scheffler or McIlroy.  Like that Taylor is 34th in par breakers, hey there is no miss-cut, so how can you go wrong with him?

Here are some of the secrets to playing well at East Lake:

The key stat for the winner:

• Let’s be frank: of the 30 players in the field, only about 8 have a chance of winning.  If you’re at 4 under, you can win if you play well.  But even those guys have a long uphill slush as they need to go low.  So frankly, I see this as a four-man race between Scheffler, Hovland, McIlroy, and Rahm.  All of these players have done great things in 2023, and I can see them doing well.  But at the same time feel that we need to be cautious with Scheffler with his putting, and Hovland won last week and could be tired this week. I also feel you need to watch McIlroy because of his great record in this event.  That’s a lot of shots to make up, but if McIlroy could make up six shots in 18 holes, anything can happen with 72 holes.
• As was proven in past Tour Championships played at East Lake it favors those that hit lots of greens.  Just look at the 22 winners of the previous Tour Championships at East Lake. Hal Sutton in 1998 was 1st while in 2000 Phil Mickelson was T4th in greens hit, Vijay Singh was T8th in 2002, Retief Goosen was first in 2004 and Bart Bryant first in 2005, Adam Scott was T6th in 2006 while in 2007 Tiger Woods led, in 2008 Camilo Villegas was T3rd while in 2009 Phil Mickelson was T8th.  in 2010 Jim Furyk led the greens hit, but Bill Haas slacked off to T-11th in ’11, Brandt Snedeker was T-7th in 2012. In 2013 Henrik Stenson proved the importance of hitting greens as he led that stat, and the same in 2014 with Billy Horschel.  In 2015 Jordan Speith was T-9th in greens hit, while in 2016, Rory McIlroy was 2nd in greens hit.  In 2017 Xander Schauffele was 2nd, hitting 56 of the 72 greens.  Now Tiger Woods in 2018 went against the grain when he hit only 48 greens and ranked T-14th. But as you can see, hitting greens is essential because if you miss a green at East Lake, getting up and down for par will be challenging.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy hit 50 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, while Dustin Johnson in 2020 hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th.  In 2021 Patrick Cantlay hit 55 of 72 greens to rank T-1st, showing that those that hit greens tend to do well on this course.  Last year McIlroy hit 54 of 72 greens to rank T-4th.
• Another key is holding the lead going into the final round.  Of course, it didn’t work out very well for Scheffler last year.  But since 1987, the player who either led or had a share of the lead through 54 holes has gone on to win 20 out of 23 times – Tom Watson (1987), Curtis Strange (’88), Jodie Mudd (’90), Craig Stadler (’91), Paul Azinger (’92), Billy Mayfair (’95), Tom Lehman (’96), David Duval (’97), Tiger Woods (’99), Vijay Singh (2002), Chad Campbell in 2003, Bart Bryant in 2005, Adam Scott in 2006, Tiger Woods in 2007, Jim Furyk in 2010, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Billy Horschel in 2014 and Jordan Spieth in 2015.

Check it out at GolfStats.Com.

• 2016 winner Rory McIlroy broke the streak as he was T-3rd, 4 shots back, and shot a final round 64 to tie for the lead before winning in a playoff.  In 2017 Xander Schauffele was T-2nd, 2 shots back, and shot a final round 68 to win by a shot, while Tiger was co-leader in 2018.  In 2019 Rory McIlroy went into the final round T-2nd and won, the same with Dustin Johnson, who shot 64 on Sunday to win.  In 2021 Patrick Cantlay led by two going into the final round.
• Experience and having a good year, especially coming into the event, is also a factor. Just look at the winners over the years.  Rory McIlroy last year, Patrick Cantlay in 2021, Dustin Johnson in 2020, Rory McIlroy in 2019 and in 2016, Tiger Woods in 2018, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Henrik Stenson in 2013, Brandt Snedeker in 2012, Jim Furyk in 2010, Phil Mickelson the year before, Tiger Woods in 2007, Adam Scott the year before that.  Bart Bryant in 2005 and Retief Goosen in 2004 were examples of this. Scott finished either 2nd or 3rd six times going into the event, Bryant had won the Memorial early in the year, while Goosen won the U.S. Open and then capped off with the Tour Championship.  All of them won, capping off great years, so I feel that this year’s winner will be one of the top three, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, and Rory McIlroy.  They have all had great seasons and could carry it on this week.
• One last thing to look for. Yes, the course is demanding, but as it goes into the year being played for the 23rd time and the 20th year in a row as the host course, the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  Yes, it’s going to take four rounds in the 60s to win, but other than Bart Bryant’s brilliant 17 under-par performance in 2005 and Tiger Woods 23 under performance in 2007, it’s rarely been taken apart.  Look for that trend to get broken this year because those players way behind will have to go low and will be looking to go low.
• Lastly, the weather in Atlanta.  It’s going to be hot, hot, and very hot this week.