BlogFortinet Championship Preview and Picks

Fortinet Championship

September 14th – 17th, 2023

Silverado C.C. (North)

Napa,, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,123

Purse: $8.4 million

with $1,512,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Max Homa

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 21 of the top 100 and 4 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings.  Here is a look at the players in the top 100:  #7 Max Homa, #24 Justin Thomas, #37 Sahith Theegala, #49 Cam Davis, #58 Andrew Putnam, #59 Lucas Herbert, #60 Brendon Todd, #64 Matt Kuchar, #65 K.H. Lee, #66 Taylor Montgomery, #68 Alex Noren, #69 Eric Cole, #74 Justin Suh, #81 Austin Eckroat, #84 Chez Reavie, #86 J.J. Spaun, #87 Mackenzie Hughes, #90 Stephan Jaeger, #92 Mark Hubbard, #95 Zac Blair, and #100 Akshay Bhatia.

Last year, 20 of the top 100 players and 5 top 50 players were in the field.

Interesting to note that the field includes 16 players that participated in the FedExCup playoffs: 4 Max Homa, #34 Sahith Theegala, #39 Brendon Todd, #40 Eric Cole, #41 Andrew Putnam, #47 Mackenzie Hughes, #50 Nick Hardy, #53 Taylor Montgomery, #59 Mark Hubbard, #60 Matt Kuchar, #61 Stephan Jaeger, #62 Cam Davis, #63 Sam Ryder, #64 Sam Stevens, #66 Beau Hossler, #69 J.J. Spaun.

After that, there are 47 players who are between 71st and 130th in the FedExCup points list and are looking to not only retain membership in the 2024 PGA Tour season but also get into prestige events in 2024.  Those in the field includes: #71 Justin Thomas, #73 Davis Thompson, #74 Austin Eckroat, #75 Ben Taylor, #76 Garrick Higgo, #77 K.H. Lee, #81 Justin Suh, #83 S.H. Kim, #84 Joel Dahmen, #86 Dylan Wu, #87 Kevin Streelman, #88 Harry Hall, #91 Callum Tarren, #92 Robby Shelton, #93 Zac Blair, #95 Chez Reavie, #96 Aaron Baddeley, #97 Nate Lashley, #98 David Lipsky, #99 Kevin Yu, #100 Will Gordon, #101 Alex Noren, #102 Akshay Bhatia, #103 Justin Lower, #104 Tyson Alexander, #105 Andrew Novak, #106 Greyson Sigg, #107 Nico Echavarria, #109 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, #110 Tyler Duncan, #111 Carson Young, #112 Martin Laird, #113 Ben Martin, #114 Taylor Pendrith, #115 Chad Ramey, #116 Peter Malnati, #117 Doug Ghim, #119 Luke List, #120 C.T. Pan, #121 Chesson Hadley, #122 Patton Kizzire, #123 Zecheng Dou, #124 Jimmy Walker, #125 Austin Smotherman, #128 Scott Stallings, #129 Harrison Endycott, and #130 Scott Piercy

The field includes six past champions: Max Homa (2023 & ’22), Stewart Cink (2021), Cameron Champ (2020), Kevin Tway (2019), Sangmoon Bae (2015), and Jimmy Walker (2014)

Our performance chart listed by average finish is a perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Fortinet Open field. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Fortinet Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Fortinet Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Fortinet Championship

Player Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. Magnit Champ. FedEx St. Jude Pinnacle Bank Champ. Wyndham Champ. Utah Champ. 3M Open British Open Barracuda Champ. Scottish Open Barbasol Champ.
Max Homa
(236.83 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP
Cam Davis
(116.67 pts)
DNP DNP 40
(10)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Andrew Putnam
(84 pts)
DNP DNP T10
(40)
DNP T24
(26)
DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP DNP T55
(0)
DNP T42
(2.67)
DNP
Eric Cole
(74.67 pts)
DNP DNP T25
(25)
DNP T31
(19)
DNP T14
(24)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP T60
(0)
DNP
Stephan Jaeger
(66 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T20
(30)
DNP T14
(24)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP DNP
Sahith Theegala
(58.67 pts)
DNP DNP T15
(35)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Beau Hossler
(55.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T20
(30)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP DNP
Brendon Todd
(53.33 pts)
DNP DNP T41
(9)
DNP T43
(7)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP T49
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Akshay Bhatia
(52.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP T9
(15)
J.J. Spaun
(51.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T24
(26)
DNP T38
(8)
DNP T37
(4.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP DNP
Vince Whaley
(50 pts)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Webb Simpson
(46.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Martin Laird
(43.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP DNP
Sam Ryder
(42 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T31
(19)
DNP T38
(8)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Chesson Hadley
(39 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T27
(7.67)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP DNP
Alex Noren
(35 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(8)
DNP T13
(12.33)
T23
(18)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Nick Hardy
(28.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T49
(1)
DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP 63
(0)
DNP DNP
Matti Schmid
(27.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T44
(2)
Charley Hoffman
(25 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T31
(6.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Sam Stevens
(23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T37
(13)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP DNP
Kevin Streelman
(23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Trevor Cone
(23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP 66
(0)
DNP T3
(30)
Robert Streb
(21 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T14
(24)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Dylan Wu
(20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Garrick Higgo
(16 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP DNP T19
(10.33)
DNP
Stewart Cink
(15.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T37
(4.33)
T23
(18)
DNP DNP DNP
Davis Thompson
(15.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Justin Thomas
(15.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP
Wesley Bryan
(15 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 70
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T31
(6.33)
DNP T24
(8.67)
Tyler Duncan
(14.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(8)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ryan Gerard
(13.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T57
(0)
DNP 5
(23.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
MJ Daffue
(12.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP T16
(11.33)
Jason Dufner
(12 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(8.67)
Chez Reavie
(12 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T55
(0)
DNP DNP
Doc Redman
(11.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T9
(15)
David Lipsky
(11 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP DNP
Matt Kuchar
(10.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T61
(0)
DNP T38
(8)
DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Andrew Novak
(10.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T33
(5.67)
Joel Dahmen
(10 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP DNP
Erik Van Rooyen
(10 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T6
(20)
T68
(0)
DNP
Lanto Griffin
(10 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T20
(20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
James Hahn
(10 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T62
(0)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Kelly Kraft
(9.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T40
(3.33)
Taylor Pendrith
(6.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 6
(20)
Chad Ramey
(6.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP T44
(2)
Taylor Montgomery
(6.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T37
(13)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Tyson Alexander
(5.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T33
(5.67)
Adam Long
(5.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T37
(4.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T16
(11.33)
S.Y. Noh
(5.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 69
(0)
DNP T28
(7.33)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
Austin Smotherman
(5.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Luke List
(5 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T35
(5)
DNP
Aaron Baddeley
(5 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Doug Ghim
(4.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP T27
(7.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Cameron Champ
(4.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
DNP DNP
Kramer Hickok
(4 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T28
(7.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Fortinet Championship

Player Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. Magnit Champ. FedEx St. Jude Pinnacle Bank Champ. Wyndham Champ. Utah Champ. 3M Open British Open Barracuda Champ. Scottish Open Barbasol Champ.
Hank Lebioda
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Kyle Westmoreland
(-25.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T45
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T47
(1)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Brown
(-23.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-3.33)
DNP T71
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Sung Kang
(-20 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 67
(0)
Jacob Bergeron
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Harrison Endycott
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Dylan Frittelli
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Harry Higgs
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
K.H. Lee
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 72
(0)
DNP
Brandon Matthews
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

For the first time since 2012, the Fortinet won’t be the season-opening event as the PGA Tour is now changing how it will run the Tour. In 2012, the PGA Tour made the FedExCup playoff events more meaningful by ensuring the season ended with the Tour Championship. Since the advent of the FedExCup playoffs in 2007, that would end with the Tour Championship in mid-September. Despite the hoopla and excitement of the PGA Tour season ending with playoffs, the season didn’t end, as the Tour would continue for another seven weeks or so. This was hard to comprehend because how can you have playoffs, which are supposed to bring the ending to the season and crown the best player in the world when you had seven more events on the calendar? The PGA Tour tried to make the FedExCup playoffs meaningful, but the general public wasn’t buying it because they still had seven events in which FedExCup points were still being given out. Because of the nature of the last events being fall golf and your marquee players took the fall off, the winner of the season-ending FedExCup was never passed up with the fall events. Tiger Woods won the first and second playoffs in 2007 and 2009, but if by chance, a person who wasn’t in the top 30 playing in the fall and got hot and won four or five of those events, they could have toppled Woods or any of the FedExCup winners. This never happened and probably would have never happened, but the PGA Tour still never had a fulfilling end to their season.

That is until they came up with a new idea, and that was the “wrap-around” season in 2013. The European Tour adopted this a decade earlier. It would play several events in November and December but count it towards the following season totals, ignoring the calendar and starting the season a few months earlier. So, in September 2013, the Tour Championship ended the season. Still, two weeks later, the Fortinet Championship, played in October of 2013, was the first event of the new 2014 “wrap-around” season. So, just like that, the PGA Tour ended their problem with the season finally ending and a new season starting weeks later. Unfortunately, this problem created a new problem for the PGA Tour, how do you classify those six or seven fall events that started the season? The Tour couldn’t make them as important as regular season events, but at the same time, they couldn’t say they were not necessary, and frankly, FedExCup points were going to players who attended those fall events. Initially, the fall events weren’t considered that important, and the marquee players took the fall off.

That started to change when new sponsors came aboard, adding money to the fall schedule and making these events worth playing in for marquee names. Off the bat, the HSBC Champions, which was played in China, joined the schedule, and with the winner getting $1.4 million (a lot a decade ago), they started getting some marquee names, notably Tiger Woods. In 2016, the CIMB Classic joined the schedule, giving the fall event two high-priced Asian events. Six had over a million dollars first-place checks in the 2017 season of the seven fall events. Those who took the fall off found themselves behind the eight-ball when they showed up in Kapalua and were behind players in the FedExCup points list. For the 2019 season, the CJ Cup was added, making a three-event Asian portion of the eight-event fall schedule, and just like that, the fall became an essential part of the Tour. The pandemic took its toll on the HSBC Champions and CIMB going away, but the Zozo Championship was added on, and by the 2022 season, the fall was up to nine events, with each event having first-place checks over a million and two of the events being no-cut affairs. So this gave marque players an excuse to play in the fall to get FedExCup points in events that ensured there would be no cut.

So last year, the Tour gave up on the “wrap-around” season, and now, just like it was ten years ago, seven fall events will end the 2023 season, with the Sentry Championship in January starting the season.

So what is now offered for those that play in the fall? For those not in the top 70 and unable to play in the FedExCup playoffs, the fall will be how a player stays or gets into the top 125, retaining their tour cards for 2024. Good news: winners in the fall will play in the Sentry Championship and Masters. Players can also earn spots in the two Signature Events, The Sentry and the Genesis, by being in the top 60 of the FedExCup after The RSM Classic. But those that finished in the top 50 of the FedExCup points list can take the fall off and tee it up at Kapalua, with everyone starting the season with a clear slate of zero points.

What will this all mean? The PGA Tour doesn’t want you to know this, but they have devalued the fall, and the tournaments will have a tough time attracting marquee names. With the CJ Cup gone, there will only be one event with no 72-hole cut, the Zozo Championship. But with no FedExCup points for 2024 on the line, it won’t attract those marquee players anymore. So the question will be how the PGA Tour maintains the credibility of the fall to appease sponsors. Still, the reality is that in the overall scheme of things, the fall is pretty meaningless, except that it’s still an essential part of keeping in the top 125 and retaining a Tour card for 2024.

So, for this week, the field is not that bad, but not of the level we have been used to. Max Homa is returning to try for a three-peat. He is on the Ryder Cup team along with Justin Thomas, who is playing this week. Now Thomas made news for his poor play in 2023, and he told Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis that he is making some changes to those he works with. Thomas will no longer work with John Graham, who has been his putting coach for nearly a decade. He also told Lewis that he had put his father, Mike, Justin’s only teacher, in the “background” regarding swing work. Now, there is some dispute about what that means. Mike Thomas says he is still working with Justin, but we have to think there are significant changes in Justin’s game and life. Does that mean he will magically find his game for this week and the Ryder Cup? Probably not, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Justin playing well this week when you consider that in his last three starts at Silverado, he was T-3rd in 2016, T-8th in 2017, and T-4th in 2020. He likes the course and, in 12 rounds, has been under par all 12 times as he is 41 under in those 12 rounds. So yes, Thomas is a guy to consider this week, even though his record over the summer was pretty poor.

Also, 16 players participated in the FedExCup playoff, and 44 finished between 71st and 125th in the FedExCup standings after the Wyndham Championship. So, the field is not bad, and the odds are that someone inside the top 125 of the FedExCup standings will win.

Taking a few days off:

It’s been a busy season, and my son Ross is getting married in Virginia Beach on Saturday.  It’s going to be a family affair with relatives and friends coming in from around the country.  With this, my wife and I have rented this gigantic house on the Outer banks for a week, so next Monday, there will be no preview.  It’s no problem since the PGA Tour is not playing and the European Tour has the French Open, so there will be very limited attention for next week.  We will still have performance charts but this is a perfect time to take ten days off.  Trust me when I say you won’t be missing much, I still will answer any emails or questions.

Sal

About the Fortinet Championship:

This event was first called the Fry’s. Com Open and started in Scottsdale, Arizona, in 2007, and after three years at Grayhawk, transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to its sponsor’s headquarters in San Jose. The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home, as it’s been a dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems prevented the event from being played on the ultra-private course that very few had ever seen. So CordeValle was to be a short-term fix and was until the event moved to Napa in 2015. Napa was a short-term solution at the time as the Institute Golf Course would get ready to hold the event. Still, after the success of Silverado and Frys dropping sponsorship, the event signed up Safeway as the title sponsor and stayed at the Silverado Resort, which is very popular with the players. After the 2021 event, Safeway gave up its sponsorship, and Fortinet took over. For anyone wondering what “Fortinet” does, they develop and sell cybersecurity solutions based in Sunnyvale, California. They had revenue of $2.6 billion in 2020, so we can say they are a very successful company, and everyone would agree a good change.

Course information:

Many will not remember, but Silverado was the proud site of the PGA Tour between 1968 to 1980 and then held a senior event, the Transamerica, between 1990 and 2002. So Silverado had a deep relationship with professional golf. The resort changed direction because it didn’t need to spend the money to host a professional golf event. Napa Valley has become an excellent destination for couples over 40, between the great weather and the vineyards. Still, the resort lost some of its lusters over the years and needed sprucing up. One of the areas that have been improved is the golf courses. There are two of them, the South and the North. Johnny Miller assembled an investment group that purchased the courses a couple of years ago, and Miller reworked the North Course. Miller revamped all the greens, put in new bunkering, realigned the fairways, and trimmed the too-cumbersome trees. Of course, because of the golf marketplace’s downturn, Miller didn’t go crazy by changing many holes and adding lakes and streams. Still, Miller is happy at work and hopeful of doing the same to the South Course.

So, what will the pros find this week? The greens are one of the things that Miller points out that makes it a better course. “These greens are as tough as Augusta at high speeds,” Miller said to Golf.com. “I would probably have five three putts a round.”  The course was also increased from 6,900 to 7,166. Now, on the surface, this may be too short for the best pros in the world. So, I can see the long-distance players having a field day while the shorter hitters enjoy shorter approaches to the greens. One thing that was brought out in the 13 years it was played in the 70s  was the caliber of champions, which included players like Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, and Ben Crenshaw among its winners.

To improve playability and aesthetics, another critical aspect of the Miller redo was turf renovation, removing Kikuyu grass and returning the course to its original mix of rye and Kentucky bluegrass condition.

The course has become a big hit with the players, sponsors, and fans, providing some great theater.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Silverado.

This is based on the most vital stats from Silverado Resort, North course based on data from last year’s Fortinet Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023. This event opened up the 2023 season, and with the change to the tour, the season will continue as players that were 71st and higher in FedExCup points to finish in the top 125 and lick up their cards for the 2024 season. Just like previous years, fall winners will still earn invitations to the Masters Tournament and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Also, all stats, earnings, and victories in the fall will tie into the 2022-23 season.
This is the tenth year that the Fortinet Championship is being played at Silverado, which has a history of holding PGA Tour events going back to the 60s. So the resort has had a deep relationship with professional golf. A couple of years ago, Johnny Miller put together an investment group to buy the Napa resort and its two golf courses which were built in the 1960s. Both courses were designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and were good, but they were never updated with the advent of new equipment. So when Miller came in, he wanted to rework the two courses and bring them up to date. He started first on the North Course by revamping all of the greens, put in new bunkering realigning the fairways, and trimming the trees that were too cumbersome. The most important item in the alteration was changing the greens by adding some undulation and making them very fast. Miller also added 300 yards, so it will play at a par 72 and at 7,166 yards. Since those changes, the course is now playing at 7,123 yards
Last year the course played to a 71.52 scoring average, just about a half shot under par, and was the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2023. The previous year Silverado played to a 71.04 scoring average, just about a shot under par and was the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022. It played almost a shot above the 2021 scoring average of 70.21 and the same as it played in 2020 (71.24, 19th hardest course that year). Historically, the lack of wind makes the course play harder and easier.
For the pros, the hardest aspect of the course was hitting fairways, in 2023, 46.77% of the fairways were hit as it was the 2nd hardest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. The hardest on tour was Oak Hill C.C. which held the PGA Championship as 45.04% of the fairways were hit. In 2022, 47.10% of the fairways were hit as it was again the 2nd hardest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour in 2022, only Wilmington C.C., which held the BMW Championship, was harder to hit. Again hitting fairways is key, in 2021 51.64% of the fairways were hit as it was the 6th hardest fairways to hit In 2020 the field hit 50.03% of the fairways as it was the 2nd hardest fairways to hit in 2020. Only Olympia Fields, the site of the BMW Championship, were harder to hit. This is the norm for Silverado in 2019, 53.65% of the fairways were hit as it ranked the 4th hardest course to hit in 2019.
Even with the tight fairways, the players hit 66.44% of the greens, ranking 26th on the PGA Tour in 2023. The previous year the players hit 67.05% of the greens as it ranked 28th hardest on the PGA Tour in 2022. Because the course only plays at a short 7,123 yards, it only means that despite missing a fairway, the player has a short iron that is easily maneuverable from rough. So in previous years, the rough was harder than other years, but with the drought, that isn’t the case. Now in 2021, the players hit 71.72% of the greens making it the 43rd hardest course to hit in regulation. Now this was the all-time record for Silverado, in past years, it was harder to hit. In 2020 65.73% of the greens were hit, making it the 16th hardest course to hit in regulation.
One of the things that keeps scoring low is the total amount of birdies made, last year 1.632 were made as only 14 other courses saw more birdies made. In 2022, 1,688 were made, as only 11 other courses saw more birdies made. In 2021 1,891 birdies were made and only two other courses in 2021 saw more birdies made, so hitting fairways and greens does lead to making a lot of birdies.
As for the greens, last year, the average distance of putts made was 73 feet, 1 inch as it ranked T-16th. They were the 6th hardest greens to score on the previous year as players made 70.0 feet of putts. The previous year in 2021, it was the 3rd hardest greens to score on as the players made 68 feet and 9 inches of putts per round.

So a combination of hitting it far and straight is important, so our first category is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In looking at last year’s champion Max Homa, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as he was 34th in driving distance and T-7th in Driving accuracy. The previous year had Homa winning as he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as he was 45th in driving distance and T-15th in driving accuracy. The 2021 champion Stewart Cink, he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as he was 17th in driving distance and was T-51st in driving accuracy. In 2020, Cameron Champ was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green, leading in driving distance and was T-21st in driving accuracy. In 2019 Kevin Tway won, and he was T-40th in Driving Accuracy and T-14th in driving distance so he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Comparing this with Brendan Steele, who won back to back in 2018 and 2017, Steele was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green in 2018 and 11th in 2017 so we can see the importance of this stat. So our first category is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Our second most important category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. That is because last year, the course ranked 26th in greens hit as Homa ranked 7th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green and T-17th in greens hit. The previous year Silverado ranked 28th in greens hit. In 2021 the course ranked 43rd in greens hit. Now it was drastically different in 2020 when the course ranked 16th in greens hit. So those who miss greens, have to get it up and down to score well.
Last year the players got it up and down from off the green 59.42% of the time and ranked 29th for courses in 2023. As for Homa, he ranked 3rd in Scrambling, getting it up and down 85.71%. In the previous year, Silverado got it up and down 60.79% of the time, T-29th for all courses in 2022. In 2021 the players got it up and down from off the green at 61.99%, making it the 36th course in scrambling. In 2020 it was 60.89%, making it the 28th course in scrambling. As for bunkering the 18 greens have 36 bunkers around them so many players will have to get up and down from the sand, last year, Silverado ranked 32nd in Sand Save Percentage, while Max Homa was T-36th in his win. In 2022 the course ranked T-21st in Sand Save percentage, while in 2021, it ranked 35th, in 2020, it ranked 25th. As for the champions, 2022 Max Homa was 24th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he was T-75th in scrambling and T-60th in Sand Save percentage. He wasn’t very impressive in this category, but in 2021 Stewart Cink was 8th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he was 2nd in Scrambling and T-68th in Sand Save Percentage. In 2020 the winner Cameron Champ was 19th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he was 1st in scrambling and 11th in Sand Save percentage. In 2019 Kevin Tway was 7th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green as he also was first in scrambling.
Our third category was Strokes Gained Putting. The greens are a combination of Poa annua and Bent so we all know it takes a special person to be able to putt well on Poa annua greens. Last year Max Homa ranked 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, and in the previous year, Homa was 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting. In 2021 Stewart Cink ranked 16th in strokes Gained Putting. In 2020, Cameron Champ ranked 28th in Strokes Gained putting, while 2019 champion Kevin Tway was 18th, 2018 winner Brendan Steele was 29th, and in 2017 he was 6th.
Our last category is Par Breakers because to win, you have to make a lot of birdies, along with some eagles. Last year Silverado was 20th in Par Breakers as winner Max Homa was T-10th as he made 18 birdies which was T-10th, and made one eagle. The previous year 2022 Silverado was 28th in Par Breakers as winner Max Homa was T-1st as he made 24 birdies, which was T-1st, and two eagles. In 2021, Silverado was 43rd in Par Breakers as Stewart Cink was T-6th and made 23 birdies, finishing T-5th. In 2020 the course played a lot harder as it was 15th in Par Breakers as Cameron Champ was T-4th as he made 21 birdiers which also finished T-4th. In 2019 Kevin Tway was T-10th making 19 birdies. Brendan Steele was 5th in Par Breakers in 2018 and T-1st in 2017 when he made 24 birdies.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made to show under-par scoring.

Of the 156 players in the field, 113 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all of the stats

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

  • Max Homa – $11,000
  • Justin Thomas – $10,500
  • Stephan Jaeger – $10,200
  • Cam Davis – $10,100
  • Sahith Theegala – $9,800
  • Eric Cole – $9,500
  • Brendon Todd – $9,400
  • Beau Hossler – $9,300
  • JJ. Spaun – $9,200
  • Andrew Putnam – $9,100
  • Alex Noren – $9,000

So this is a very strange week since most of the players haven’t teed it up in over five weeks since the Wyndham Championship.  So anything can happen, put a lot of emphasis on past performance at Silverado.

I do believe that Max Homa at $11,000, will play well, not only has he won the last two years, but he finished well at the end of the 2023 season finishing T-12th at the Scottish Open, T-10th at the British Open, T-6th at the FedEx St. Jude, T-5th at the BMW and T-9th at the Tour Championship.  I also like Justin Thomas at $10,500.  I know that 2023 was a terrible year, and even the way he missed out on the FedExCup playoffs by a shot was terrible.  But we know that Thomas is making changes, he got a bit of a boast from Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson to put him on the team, and he said on the trip to Rome last week that he has been working hard.  But the secret to his possible good play this week is how well Thomas has played at Silverado, think he will be in the top ten.  Stephan Jaeger at $10,200 is a big no for me.  He doesn’t have a good record at Silverado and didn’t finish well enough over the summer on the PGA Tour.  Yes, he hasn’t missed a cut in his last 13 events, but in that time, he only had one top-ten, T-9th at the Rocket Mortgage.  The same with Cam Davis at $10,100, in four Fortinet starts, his best finish was T-17th in 2019, and even with finishing 2023 with three top-ten finishes in his last four starts, that isn’t enough to pick him.  Sahith Theegala at $9,800 is a yes for me, he was T-6th last year at Silverado and was okay in his two FedExCup playoff starts.  Eric Cole at $9,500 is a hard choice, I am saying no because I don’t think he has much experience on West Coast grasses, and he just hasn’t played in a while.  Now with Brendon Todd at $9,400, he was T-9th last year at the Fortinet and played well this summer, including a T-2nd at the John Deere and T-7th at the Wyndham.  Beau Hossler at $9,300 is a no, in six Fortinet starts, his best finish was T-16th, and he didn’t finish the year very positively.  The same with JJ. Spaun at $9,200 who makes cuts but only had one top-ten over the summer, T-10th at the Barracuda.  Andrew Putnam at $9,100 is also a no, has not played well enough at Silverado, and even his T-10th at the BMW doesn’t sway us.  Alex Noren at $9,000 is also a no, his summer wasn’t that great.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Akshay Bhatia at $8,700 is a yes, he was T-9th in 2021 at the Fortinet and won the Barracuda.  Chez Reavie at $8,500 is worth a look, he was T-3rd at the Fortinet in 2021 and played okay over the summer.  Taylor Montgomery at $8,400 is worth the gamble, he had a great fall last year, including finishing 3rd at Silverado last year.  But he struggled the rest of the year, and I feel he will regain the magic for this week.  Kevin Streelman at $8,000 is a gamble but worth it.  He was T-3rd at Silverado in 2022, and he played okay over the summer.  Davis Thompson at $7,900, like Streelman, is worth the gamble, he was T-9th at Fortinet last year and played well the first part of the year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Fortinet Championship

Some struggles in making bargain picks, we are looking at players who made a lot of cuts.  Like MJ Daffue at $7,500, Stewart Cink at $7,300,  and K.H. Lee at $7,500.  Ryan Gerard at $7,000, has never played at Fortinet but could be a good choice due to him making 13 of 21 cuts.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Fortinet Open:

The key stat for the winner:
  • In all nine years of being played at Silverado, hitting fairways and putting became the keys to playing well.  Silverado had the 2nd hardest fairways to hit in 2022, so hitting it straight is essential.  Also, putting was important, on putting average ranks high each year.  So look for that trait in a possible winner this week.
Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:
  • Since the course is still new for a good share of the players, the experience will play a minimal role.  Traditionally tournaments on the PGA Tour that hold events for the first, second, and third year, are won by journeymen and players with minimum experience winning.  The last eight winners Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Sangmoon Bae, Emiliano Grillo, and Brendan Steele, fit that bill, so expect the unexpected for this week.
  • Johnny Miller says the greens are perfect and fast, so good putters should have a field day.
  • Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at Silverado.  Last year it ranked T-29th hardest, so to win, you have to get up and down on those greens you miss.
  • The weather will be picture-perfect, but the players will hate the winds, which will average 11 mph each day, with Thursday having the highest.  So look for scores on the high side.
  • Lastly, the trend is for a journeyman pro to win, I think that will continue this week.

Who to watch for at the Fortinet Championship

Best Bets:

Sahith Theegala

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T6 T47 T14

I feel, it’s his time to win, the course suits his game, and I feel he will do well.

Akshay Bhatia

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T9 CUT

Another great player who will love this course was T-9th last year.

Max Homa

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
Win Win T62 T60 CUT T39 T9

He is great on this course and is playing well, only problem is that winning three in a row is very hard to do.

Best of the rest:

Justin Thomas

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T4 T8 T3 CUT T72

I know that 2023 was a terrible year, and even the way he missed out on the FedExCup playoffs by a shot was terrible. But we know that Thomas is making changes. He got a bit of a boast from Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson to put him on the team, and he said on the trip to Rome last week that he has been working hard. But the secret to his possible good play this week is how well Thomas has played at Silverado, think he will be in the top ten.

Cam Davis

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
CUT T36 CUT T17

In four Fortinet starts, his best finish was T-17th in 2019, and even with finishing 2023 with three top-ten finishes in his last four starts, that isn’t enough to pick him. Sahith Theegala at $9,800 is a yes for me, he was T-6th last year at Silverado and was okay in his two FedExCup playoff starts.

Alex Noren

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T36

He surprises us, and this could be one of those weeks.

Andrew Putnam

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T43 T30 T36 T30 CUT

He has not played well enough at Silverado, but was T-10th at the BMW which gives us some hope for a good week.

Solid contenders

Taylor Montgomery

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
3

He had a great fall last year, including finishing 3rd at Silverado last year. But he struggled the rest of the year, but I feel he will regain the magic for this week.

Kevin Streelman

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T59 T3 CUT T25 T13 CUT T41 CUT T69

He was T-3rd at Silverado in 2022, and he played okay over the summer.

Brendon Todd

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T9 T22 CUT T26 T26 CUT

He was T-9th last year at the Fortinet and played well this summer, including a T-2nd at the John Deere and T-7th at the Wyndham.

Eric Cole

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
CUT

Yes, he hasn’t had much experience on West Coast grasses and hasn’t played in a while. I still think he can shine this week.

Long shots that could come through:

Davis Thompson

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
T9

He was T-9th at Fortinet last year and played well the first part of the year.

Ryan Gerard

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
First time playing in this event

He has never played at Fortinet, but he could be a good choice due to him making 13 of 21 cuts.

MJ Daffue

2023 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11
CUT 72

He also makes a lot of cuts and could be the surprise of 2024.

Comments

  1. hans@sbs.co.kr says

    Hey, Congrats on your son’s wedding! Wish him a good life!

  2. Appreciate it.

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