BlogBMW PGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For years, the European Tour has been waiting for that perfect BMW PGA Championship, which all the great players of the DP World Tour attend. One of the big reasons they couldn’t attract better fields was the date, it was played in May, and most of the marquee names were playing in the Memorial or in the United States. In 2019, they changed to September, which was supposed to help. It did, but the pandemic didn’t help things. But this year, the perfect storm accrued as the BMW PGA is two weeks before the Ryder Cup, which is being held in Rome. With that, all 12 European Ryder Cup players are in the field. Those, along with Tom Kim and Billy Horschel, are helping make up this year’s BMW being one of the best-attended tournaments on the DP World Tour.

This is the main championship of the European Tour, the equivalent to the PGA Tour’s Players Championship. This event has been on the Tour as long as there has been a European Tour, going back to 1972. For years, it rotated around the best courses in England, being played at Wentworth, Royal St. George’s, Royal Birkdale and St. Andrews, until 1984, when it settled to its permanent home, Wentworth.

Wentworth Club is best known for its associations with professional golf. It has three eighteen-hole courses: the famous Harry Colt-designed West Course from 1926, the earlier yet lesser-played East Course, which was also designed by Colt in 1924, and the recent Edinburgh Course designed by John Jacobs, and a nine-hole par-3 executive course. The headquarters of the PGA European Tour are located at the club, and each year, it hosts the Tour’s PGA Championship. It was the venue of the 1953 Ryder Cup and the World Match Play Championship from 1964 until 2007.

The club is surrounded by and entwined with the Wentworth Estate, one of the most expensive private estates in the London suburbs, which was built at the same time where many top golfers and other celebrities have homes. One of them is Ernie Els, who became the club’s “worldwide touring professional” in 2005. Over the winter of 2008-09, Els, who was developing a golf course design practice, made alterations to the West Course, lengthening it by 310 yards and adding 30 bunkers. The changes weren’t’ well received, and players savaged the changes. In 2017, the changes were redone to soften the changes, and since people like the course.

This is the most prestigious event on the DP World Tour. It’s played on a classic old course, Wentworth, about 20 miles west of London. Over the years, it’s had a tough time getting a top-notch field as some European Tour members took passes to play on the PGA Tour instead of its tour premiere events. Making it easier for marquee names to play in this event, in 2019, it was moved from May to September, but that hasn’t helped. Some top-notch players who began their careers in Europe passed on it.

This year, things are different:

For many different reasons, this event hasn’t been able to get a lot of marquee names. But they have gotten a great field with the Ryder Cup being played in Europe in just two weeks. Unfortunately, because of LIV golf, there are some former European Tour stars like Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Patrick Reed, Thomas Pieters, Paul Casey, Richard Bland, Louis Oosthuizen, Bernd Wiesberger, Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwatzel and Henrik Stenson who won’t be able to attend this year’s BMW PGA Championship. It’s been over three months now since we got the announcement of peace between the PGA Tour, DP World, and LIV golf, but still, we don’t know if LIV golf will go away in 2024 or if some other series of exhibition matches will be played in its place next year. It’s kind of a shame that those players couldn’t play and get this event a first-class field.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde:

How can a player the caliber of Rory McIlroy be among the leaders in the final round and, in that round, hit four balls into the water on the way to making a double and a triple bogey? Rory shot 74 in that final round and finished T-12th, four shots back of the winner Vincent Norrman.  This wasn’t the first time that McIlroy had blown a tournament in the final round. Gosh, I feel Rory has blown two dozen events due to a poor third round. Now, that doesn’t even take into effect those events in which he had a terrible first round followed by a great 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds.

Frankly, this makes Rory the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of golf. 20 years ago, Ernie Els had the exact sentimental total, and 30 years ago, Greg Norman won the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde title. Both Els and Norman could easily have won close to 8 majors each. Norman was so bad that in 1986, he had the third-round slam in the majors as he led all four majors going into the final round. Els and Norman were never able to get rid of that title, the same with McIlroy, who is 34 years old and frankly in his prime. For the last year or so, we have been waiting for him to bust out of this funk, but it’s becoming evident that McIlroy will hold onto that title of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde for the rest of his career. McIlroy is hands down the most popular player right now, and each time he plays like he did on Sunday at The K Club, it breaks the hearts of tens of thousands of his fans. Even worse for gamblers, this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of play makes it hard to handicap McIlroy. In reality, picking conclusions of McIlroy’s rounds is like flipping a coin, a 50-50 proposition. When we went to bed on Saturday night, most of us could never imagine that McIlroy would hit four balls into the water and shoot a final round 74. Come this Sunday, we all know that McIlroy will be able to muster up three good rounds to find himself into contention again, thus giving up the problem of how to judge what he will do on Sunday. Even worse, this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde problem runs in reverse. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, McIlroy was out of contention going into the final round but shot 65 and finished T-3rd, a shot out of the Glover/Cantlay playoff. Same with his victory at the Genesis Scottish Open. When Rory made four bogeys on the front nine, his chances were just about dashed, and he was playing for a high finish. Even with birdies at 11 and 14, it didn’t look like Rory could win, but he could muster birdies on the two hardest holes of the week, 17 and 18, to beat MacIntyre by a shot.

So it’s hard to calculate what McIlroy will do, and I am sorry to say that for those with the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde syndrome, the only way to judge how he will play is to flip a coin.

The European Tour has had a tough time since COVID-19, so this week will be a happy week for this tour.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,600
• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Viktor Hovland – $10,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,200
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,800
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,600
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,500
• Shane Lowry – $9,400
• Min Woo Lee – $9,300
• Tom Kim – $9,200
• Justin Rose – $9,100
• Nicolai Hojgaard – $9,000

Great to play DraftKings this week, matter of fact, it’s more fun playing the BMW PGA than the PGA Tour’s Fortinet Championship.  I will say this, I make more money with my European Tour picks over PGA Tour because there aren’t as many savvy people that play in European Tour games.  So take advantage that the competition is not as good as it is on the PGA Tour.  Like anything else, always be leery of these high-priced guns.  A perfect example is Shane Lowry at $9,400.  For Lowry, he hasn’t won in over a year since the BMW PGA, and yes, he had his best event last week at the Irish Open, finishing T-3rd, but will he do that again? It’s hard to justify the high price if he doesn’t finish in the top ten. Same with Justin Rose at $9,100.  Since winning at Pebble in February he has a T-4th at the British Masters and T-6th at the Players.  So be careful.

Off the bat, Rory McIlroy is $11,600, a high price but one worth it for Rory when you realize that he has won at Wentworth and was 2nd in his last starts at Wentworth last year and in 2018, along with finishing T-9th in 2019.  We have to wonder what scares he has due to his poor round on Sunday at the Irish Open.  As I said above, you have to toss a coin because there is no way to predict what he will do.  On paper, he is playing great now, but will that one poor round plague him this week?  I think that Jon Rahm at $11,200, is a much better choice, in two starts at Wentworth has been runner-up and despite his poor play in the FedExCup playoffs, feels he is in Ryder Cup mode and will play great.  The big question is if the hottest player on the planet now Viktor Hovland at $10,700, is beatable.  He was T-5th last year at Wentworth, and his game seems to improve on each start.  I don’t think the two weeks off since the Tour Championship will affect him, he is my main guy.  At times I get bored writing how Tommy Fleetwood, who cost $10,200 this week, will do.  We know he won’t win, it’s just a matter of what place in the top 20 he will finish.  The bad news is he doesn’t play particularly well at Wentworth, he only has one top-ten in 11 starts, and that was a T-6th in 2015.  Best to pass on him.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,800, won at Wentworth in 2020, but he also has missed the cut in three of his last five starts.  You don’t have to worry about that, Hatton is playing way too well and could find himself in contention.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,600 is a really good choice, he has made seven of seven cuts at Wentworth and shows he can play well on it.  Ludvig Aberg is $9,500, which is costly for a rookie, but he has played well of late.  Still, the price tag is too high for him this week.  Defending champion Shane Lowry is $9,400 and will be a no for me.  Yes, he was T-3rd last week in Ireland, but I just don’t think his game is that great now.  Min Woo Lee at $9,300 is a no for me, he hasn’t played well in three Wentworth starts, and yes he was T-7th last week in Ireland, but I still don’t expect much from him.  Same with Tom Kim at $9,200, who has never played at Wentworth, his game hasn’t been sharp all summer.  Justin Rose at $9,100, has had his moments at Wentworth, including a pair of runner-up finishes, but they were over a decade ago, and Rose just isn’t playing well.  Nicolai Hojgaard at $9,000 is also a maybe for me, not a great record at Wentworth, but he has been in the top-five in his last two starts.  So watch him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Adrian Meronk at $8,800 mainly because I know he is looking for some redemption for not getting a wild card spot in the Ryder Cup.  If he could pull out a victory, it would create some chaos during the Ryder Cup.  Billy Horschel at $8,500, is a very good pick, he has won at Wentworth and finished in the top ten in all his three starts, including T-9th last year.  His game has improved since his low in the spring, and he is someone to watch this week.  Have to also watch Thomas Detry at $8,000, he was T-5th last year at Wentworth and been okay during the summer.  I like Padraig Harrington at $7,600 for one reason, and that is his track record at Wentworth and lately tells us he will make the cut and a lot of points this week, he is a bargain. The same with Alex Fitzpatrick at $7,600, he is playing well, and I feel he will make the cut at earning a lot of points for a cheap price. I am also taking Thriston Lawrence at $7,500 for the same reason, he will make a lot of points for a cheap price.

Any bargains out there?

This week it’s hard to find any bargains.  What I am looking for is someone who can make a lot of birdies and make the cut.  One person who comes out of left field is Adrian Otaegui at $7,400.  He was 2nd in the KLM in May and is a birdie machine, be a good choice.  I also, like Francesco Molinari at $7,400, he has made the cut 14 times in 16 starts and won at Wentworth in 2018.  I know that he has struggled all summer and missed the cut in six of his last seven starts, but I feel Wentworth will recharge him.  Shubhankar Sharma at $7,200 is a possibility, he played well in Ireland, and he was T-9th at Wentworth in 2021.  Pablo Larrazabal is $7,100 and has made nine Wentworth cuts in 12 starts, like his consistency at Wentworth.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

The key stat for the winner:

• Wentworth is a classic shotmaker course, which is why those who hit lots of greens, like Luke Donald, have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those who miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are a lot of bumps and knolls around these greens.  But the key to playing well is to hit lots of greens like 2016 winner Chris Wood who was T-4th in greens hit.  Even better is what Byeong-Hun An did in 2015, he only missed 11 greens all week, leading the field in greens hit.  To show how important it is to hit greens, going back to 2009, all of the champions but Rory McIlroy was in the top ten of greens hit. In 2020 Tyrell Hatton was T-25th which isn’t bad, 2021 winnr Billy Horschel hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field, and last year, Shane Lowry led the field in hitting 49 of 72 greens.
• Since major work was done on Wentworth in 2011, the par 4s are really tough, some of the hardest on the European Tour, with five of the 12 playing over 449 yards.  In the last five years, 98% of those that made the cut have played the par 4s in 5.8 over par, so you can see how Luke Donald won in 2012 when he played the 4s in 3 under, Matteo Manassero was 1 over in his ’13 win, Rory McIlroy played the par 4s in 1 under in 2014, Byeong-Hun An was 3 under on the par 4s in 2015 and Chris Wood was 2 under on them in  2016, in 2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton was 2 under and Billy Horschel won in 2021 playing the par 4s in 9 under.  Last year Shane Lowry won as he was 6 under on the par 4s.
• On top of new greens that went in before the 2017 event, many other things have been done to Wentworth.  29 bunkers were completely removed as every bunker on the course was redesigned and rebuilt.  So now it’s a lot tougher if you hit it into one of them.  Hopefully, with these changes and the ones a couple of years ago, it will be more appealing to the players.
• On the weather, it is not the greatest but could be worse.  Each day will be in the mid-70s, partly cloudy the first three days with rain on Sunday.