Shriners Children’s Open Key Fantasy Stats

Shriners Children’s Open

October 12th – 15th, 2023

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas, NV

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,255

Purse: $8.4 million

with $1,512,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tom Kim

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2022.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour. It was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992, just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995, it was the home course of the event and became the tournament’s sole venue in 2008. The course has always been well respected, a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on a typical day without wind.

The last two years have seen calm and perfect playing conditions. Last year, the course played to a 68.93 average, making it the 42nd hardest of 50 courses on the 2022 PGA Tour schedule. The same in 2021 as the course played easy at a 68.34 average, ranking it 48th of 51 courses. Of the three courses that played easier in 2021 (Sherwood C.C., Caves Valley & Kapalua), they didn’t have full-field events, so the course was the easiest in events that had full fields. The same with 2020, it played to a 68.88 average, which ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. Only two courses played easier that year; both were at the American Express, so TPC Summerlin played the easiest full-field course on the PGA Tour 2020. The course played to a 69.13 average in the previous year, which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before, in 2018, in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the course played much tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th most demanding course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017, Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th most challenging course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bomber’s delight. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008, only two bombers won, Bryson DeChambeau in 2019 and Smylie Kaufman in 2016. Last year’s champion, SingJae Im, finished the year 80th in driving distance and ranked 26th during the Shriners. In looking at the other winners, champions like Martin Laird, Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers, so they don’t hit it far. 2021 winner Martin Laird was 15th during the week in driving distance (was T-104th for 2021). The year before, champion Kevin Na was 25th at the Shriners in driving distance, but for the year, he was 170th, one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019, before Bryson DeChambeau became the longest hitter on tour, he was 30th for the week and T-34th over the 2019 season. In 2018, Patrick Cantlay was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year.

So, what kind of players win at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 16 champions since 2007, eight were in the top-five of greens in regulation, and only two winners, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th, and Kevin Na in 2020 was T-46th, were both higher than 15th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). In 2023, Tom Kim was 3rd in Greens in Regulation. In 2022, Sungjae Im was 1st in Greens hit, joining Bob Estes (2001) as the only two players since 1996 to lead the Greens in Regulation category. Another essential item is putting. Six winners were in the top 10 in putting average, with only four not in the top 25 (Kim was T-15th last year, Im was T-16th last in 2022, Laird was T-25th in 2021, Na was 1st in 2020). The one essential stat is that eleven of the previous 16 winners were in double digits in under-par figures on the par 4s. Last year’s winner Tom Kim, was 11 under, 2022 winner Sungjae Im was 15 under, the best total of a winner since Bob Estes in 2001 was 18 under. In 2010, winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under. In 2017, Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s, Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under in 2019, and Kevin Na was 10 under in 2020, the same as Laird was in 2021.

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 41st most challenging course to drive in 2023. The average of all the players in 2023 was 64.54%, compared to the hardest course for the year, Oak Hill Country Club (site of the PGA Championship). The average for the week was 45.04%, meaning that the fairways of TPC Summerlin are easier to hit, meaning players rear back, and it hit far. It was the same in 2022 when TPC Summerlin was the 42nd hardest course to drive. In 2021, driving in the fairway in calm conditions was the 37th most challenging course. In 2020, it was the 35th hardest course to drive in the fairway in calm conditions, but in windy conditions in 2018, it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017, it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course. In 2016, it ranked 11th; in 2015, it was 17th, so hitting it straight is essential. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them except Kevin Na finished in the top 20, with last year’s winner Tom Kim ranking T-14th, 2022 winner Sungjae Im ranking T-19th, 2021 winner Martin Laird ranking T-5th and 2020 winner Kevin Na ranked T-25th in driving accuracy.

Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies; last year, Tom Kim made 24, 2022 winner SungJae Im made 26, 2021 winner Martin Laird made 22, and in 2020, Kevin Na had 26 birdies and ranked 3rd. In 2019, DeChambeau had 22 birdies, while in 2018, Cantlay had 20 birdies, which were tied for most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One essential item is the weather. This year, every day will be mostly perfect in Las Vegas, with lots of sun and temperatures ranging from 74 degrees on Thursday to 75 on Friday, 80 on Saturday, and 85 on Sunday. Last year, the wind was very low, averaging about 10 mph each day, but this year, it will be between 6 to 15 mph during the tournament rounds. So, look for the scores to be about the same as the last couple of years.

So, in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. For Tom Kim, last year he was 32nd, in 2022 SungJae Im was 9th, in 2021 Laird was 26th while Na in 2000 ranked 54th, but in 2019 Bryson DeChambeau was 6th, and in 2018 winner Patrick Cantlay was 1st. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked 19th in that stat and 47th in greens in regulation last year. The course was 11th in 2022 and 50th in greens in regulation in 2022 while the winner Im ranked 16th, Martin Laird ranked 44th in 2021, Kevin Na was terrible, ranking 60th, but in 2019, DeChambeau was 10th. Also, wind plays a significant factor in this stat. In 2018, in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation, which means many greens will be hit.
Next, we pick scrambling and sand saves because you must make par if the greens are missed. Last year, the field averaged 25th in scrambling, and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 14th in sand save percentage, so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Tom Kim was 19th in Strokes Gained Around the Green as Kim was 1st in scrambling and T-59th in Sand Save percentage. In 2022, the field averaged 28th in scrambling and 25th in sand save percentage. Im was 13th in 2022 in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Laird was great in this stat in 2021, ranking 4th.
Our last category is par breakers, the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is essential, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin. Last year, 1,956 birdies were made and 41 birdies. Last year’s winner, Tom Kim, made 24 birdies but didn’t have any eagles, so he ranked 5th in Par Breakers. In 2022, 1,905 birdies were made and 43 birdies. The course was T-44th in Par Breakers. 2022 winner Sungjae Im made 26 birdies (2nd) and one eagle and was 2nd in Par Breakers. In 2021, Laird was T-4th. In 2020, Na was 1st in Par Breakers, DeChambeau was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Cantlay was T-2nd in 2018.
So, in the long run, what does this mean? This is a bomber delight, and look for the player who hits it long-winning.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then gets the ball on the green, determining who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of a shot going into the green from off the fairway.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

114 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.