BlogZozo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This is a premier event that, unfortunately, really doesn’t work in the format. The fall events are about grinding it out, securing a PGA Tour card for 2024, and then trying to get better status by climbing the points list. But this event goes against that premise. Sure, it will have the best field of any of the fall events, but the field is only 78 players, and 11 are Japanese players off the Japan Golf Tour points list. Then, 17 players are in the top 50 of the FedExCup points list, these players can’t improve their status for 2024. So that leaves just 50 spots for those desperately trying to make the top 125 or get into the top 60 and earn a spot in the Sentry and Genesis events. Then you have the fact that players have to travel from Las Vegas to Japan, in which you lose a day, which means you have very little time to learn the course and get over jet lag. The good news is that the PGA tour has chartered a plane to get them to Japan as painlessly as possible. Still, this event just doesn’t fit. This event was in the making long before the Tour finalized the fall schedule. I think this may be a one-off event. I don’t have any information, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this event moved to either January or February and was a part of the regular 2025 schedule. That makes sense, and who knows? I guess we will have to wait and see.

Course information:

• Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• 34 – 36 = 70
• 3,279 – 3,762 = 7,041

There are 5 par 3s, 10 par 4s and 3 par 5s

All 5 par 3s are under 191 yards

There are 3 par 4s under 400 yards, 5 par 4s over 480 yards

1 par 5 over 600 yards

This event started four years ago when it was played in Japan in October 2019. It became an instant success when Tiger Woods won the last event Woods won. Because of COVID-19, the event the following year was played outside of Los Angeles at Sherwood C.C.  With the pandemic easing, it returned to Japan in October of 2022, and the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, the same club that Tiger Woods won, was again pressed into service. That year, it was won by Hideki Matsuyama, and last year, Keegan Bradley was the champion.

As for Accordia Golf, it’s not one of the best courses in Japan. It also doesn’t have the reputation of being a brute of a course. Last year, 48 of the 78 broke par, and the course played to a 69.15 average for the par 70 layout. Last year, the course lost some of the bite it had the year before. When Keegan Bradley won, the course was the 30th hardest course on Tour. But the year early, when Hideki Matsuyama won, the course had more bite to it as only 27 of the 78 broke par with the course playing to a 70.48 scoring average as it was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2022.

So the course does have some bite to it, a course that is best won by long hitters. One of the reasons we didn’t do a key fantasy stat feature is that the course lacks history and has mixed returns to the point that we really couldn’t come to any actual conclusion. From last year’s stats, we see that the driving distance on the course is 287.5, which means that the average drive is short. It ranked sixth on Tour, and the ones in front of it were on courses that weather made the fairways soft with no roll. That makes sense, this course is perfectly manicured, and I can see a limited roll on the fairways. As for accuracy, the course was the 23rd toughest on Tour, meaning it’s mainstream on players hitting the fairways. Winner Keegan Bradley hit 31 of the 54 and ranked T-23rd. Of those that finished in the top 11, only two were in the top ten, so hitting fairways is unimportant. But a critical stat is hitting greens. Last year, the course ranked 38th out of 53 courses, so many greens were hit last year. So it makes sense that winner Bradley was T-3rd, hitting 56 of the 72 greens. Of those in the top 11, six were in the top ten. The same thing happened the year before when Hideki Matsuyama won. He led the field, hitting 59 of 72 greens. The same with the runner-ups, Cameron Tringale was 2nd in greens hit, and Brandan Steele was T-7th.  Returning to the first Zozo won by Tiger Woods, he was T-3rd in Greens hit. So it’s best to hit this link and look at the Greens in Regulation list to see who to pick this week.

As for any other stats, nothing sticks out.

About the course:

Accordia is outside of Tokyo and was picked because it can accommodate a lot of spectators. The original course opened in 1965, and a second 18 was opened soon after. Japan course architect Junya Fujita did both, and they have held several professional events, the biggest being the 1977 Japan Open. The course being played this week is a composite of the 36 holes as it will play to a par 70 at 7,079 yards. The first thing for everyone to realize is that this is a concise course under the standards of having the best players in the world play it. With Zoysia fairways, the course will play to its actual yardage, but the combination of many mature trees and most of the holes bending to one way or another takes the driver out of the hands of the long drivers. The rough is thick, but since most shots will be between a 6 iron to pitching wedge, it’s nothing the pros can’t handle. There are a lot of thick trees that line the fairways, and wayward drives will cause problems for those that are wild off the tee, but still, the length will be an advantage this week. One thing the players find strange is that each hole has two greens. That’s because they have summer and winter greens in Japan. So, like last year, the year before, and in 2020, the PGA Tour will pick the green that is in the best shape and presents the best challenge. The greens are extensive and easy to hit from the fairways but have some undulations. The players will find the greens a bit slow for what they are used to, which could be a significant advantage for poorer putters. Bunkers are no problem and are more for cosmetic looks, and any chip around the green will be easy.

The good news is that the week’s weather will be perfect, something that didn’t happen last year. Thursday and Friday will hit a high of 77, Saturday and Sunday in the high 60s. There will be no rain, but it will be windy. On Thursday, wins will blow 13 mph, but on Friday, winds will be 22 mph with gusts of 30 mph. Things get better as winds die down to 8 mph over the weekend.

Players we shouldn’t forget about

This week’s event is being played in Japan, with a competent tour in which 14 Japan Golf Tour members are playing this week. We all know about Hideki Matsuyama, who won this event two years ago. But a few others are playing that we don’t know much about but could also be in contention. One is Ryo Hisatsune, who is a regular on the DP World Tour. Four weeks ago, Hisatsune won the French Open by two shots over Jordan Smith and Jeff Winther. It was Hisatsune’s first professional win, but many don’t realize that he just turned 21 this week and has the best in front of him. Last year, Ryo finished T-12th in this event, so he may be a person to watch. Another player from Japan to watch is Takumi Kanaya. He was T-7th at the Zozo two years ago and T-53rd last year. This 25-year-old is a full-time member of the Japan Golf Tour and in 2023, leads the money list and has won two. In his last ten starts, he has five top-five finishes and has not finished higher than T-13th.  One last thing to watch, he is 5th on the Greens in Regulation stat on the Japan tour, so he is a person to watch. Also, watch Keita Nakajima, this 23-year-old is playing in his first full year as a professional, and already he has won twice and has been in the top-five nine times. He has played in two Zozo, T-12th last year and T-28th the year before. Some other players from Japan to watch are Taiga Semikawa, Yuki Inamori, Shugo Imahire, and Ryo Ishikawa. Last but not least, Taguri Iwasaki won the Japan Open last week.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 Shriners (We don’t include team events), a total of 49 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Xander Schauffele – $11,100
• Collin Morikawa – $10,800
• Sungjae Im – $10,200
• Rickie Fowler – $10,000
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800
• Cam Davis – $9,500
• Adam Scott – $9,300
• Keegan Bradley – $9,200
• Min Woo Lee – $9,100
• Sahith Theegala – $9,000

Before we start, I must remind you that Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of us, so you must get your picks in by Wednesday afternoon.  The game will probably close on Wednesday night at 7:30.

We have an event in which there won’t be a cut, so we can have all six players generating points for 72 holes.  One player I don’t like Xander Schauffele at $11,100, he won the Olympics in Japan and was T-9th last year.  Just don’t like that he played poorly at the Ryder Cup, and I don’t think he is worth the money, even though he makes a lot of DraftKings points.  Collin Morikawa at $10,800 is also a no, yes, he finished T-7th at the Zozo two years ago but was T-45th last year and hasn’t played well since the Rocket Mortgage.  Sungjae Im at $10,200, is also a no, has not played since the Tour Championship, and despite finishing T-3rd in this event in 2019, was T-29th last year.  Rickie Fowler at $10,000 should be a no because of his poor play since winning the Rocket Mortgage, but one factor sticks out, he was T-2nd last year at the Zozo.  Still, I don’t think that we should consider him for this week.  The big question on Hideki Matsuyama at $9,800 is his health.  He hasn’t played since withdrawing from the BMW, yes, he has a good record in this event, including a win, but I have to go with my gut that he is still damaged goods.   I like Cam Davis at $9,500, he has played well lately, and I like that he is a good wind player when you consider the high winds projected for Friday.  Adam Scott at $9,300 is a big no for me, it hasn’t shown much over the last year.  Keegan Bradley at $9,200 is a big yes for me, his game is perfect for this course, as it showed last year.  He was T-7th the year before, so I like him.  Min Woo Lee at $9,100 is a no, has not played in this event, and hasn’t played well since his T-5th at the U.S. Open.  Sahith Theegala at $9,000 is a big yes for me, he won the Fortinet and was T-5th last year at the Zozo.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Eric Cole at $8,900, is a person to think about.  He has played well, including a T-3rd in Las Vegas, the reason you don’t take him is that he is playing the Zozo for the first time, and I don’t like that he ranks 129th in Greens in Regulation.  Many will think that Vincent Norrman at $8,400 is a strange choice, yes has not played well since winning the Barbasol and is playing for the first time at the Zozo Championship.  But he is 15th in Greens in Regulation, and I think that factoid is very important.  The same with Aaron Rai at $8,000 he is T-12th in Greens in Regulation, and despite his only start being T-36th last year at the Zozo, he plays his best on courses that cater to those that hit a lot of greens.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Zozo Championship:

With all of the Japanese players, this section is ripe with a lot of players worth the money.  Off the bat, I still like Akshay Bhatia at $7,400, even though he is playing for the first time in this event.  I like that he is 23rd in Greens in Regulation, he has played well in the last two events.  Our first Japanese player is Takumi Kanaya at $7,200, he was T-7th two years ago at the Zozo and is the leading money winner on the Japan Golf Tour.  Also, like Ryo Hisatsune at $7,200, he was T-12th last year and won a few weeks ago won at the French Open.  Hard to believe Cameron Champ is at $7,100 despite finishing 8th last year at the Zozo. He was T-9th at the Sanderson and T-18th at the Shriners, he is 29th in Greens in Regulation, so I think he will be great this week.  Keita Nakajima at $6,800 is another great choice.  He has played great of late in Japan and was T-12th last year at the Zozo.  Have to take a flyer on Taguri Iwasaki at $6,000, which he won last week at the Japan Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Zozo Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  31 of the 78 players will be a new adventure learning the course.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Just like last week, this course can be seriously attacked, and long hitters have a big advantage.  Now that doesn’t mean you can be wild, just off the fairway works, but if your way off line, it will be a tough go because the course has a lot of trees down each fairway.
• We can see that the greens are easy to hit, but since many of them sit up if a green is missed by a lot, it will be hard to get it up and down, so those that scramble well will have an advantage.
• Look For a birdie fest this week.  Last year the 78 players made 1,097 birdies on the course, which works out to 3.52 per round.  Of the 11 that finished in the top ten, they averaged making 34.41 birdies per round.
• Don’t disregard any of the Japanese players, a half dozen could be in the mix to content this week.
• One last thing, look for players that have done well of late.