BlogButterfield Bermuda Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Hard to believe that the fall portion of the PGA Tour is almost finished, we have this week and next.  Have to say I am a bit surprised at how competitive it’s been with good fields, that is till this week.  In looking at the five winners, all of them except for Sahith Theegala had won before on the PGA Tour.  Every one of the five winners was in the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings.  It shows us that more players see the importance of playing in the fall.  This week is the Bermuda Champions. This event was supposed to be a second-tier event opposite the WGC-HSBC Champions when it debuted in 2019.  It was that first year, but due to COVID, the China event was canceled the next year, and since then, the Bermuda Championship has been upgraded to full event status.

The field for this week’s event is not very rich as the marquee names are Adam Scott, Stewart Cink, and Lucas Glover.  Of the 132 players in the field, only 21 have won on the PGA Tour, and five of them (Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Adam Scott, and Jimmy Walker have won a major).  So the chances are good that we will have a rookie winner this week.

It’s our turn! ⛳️ Welcome to tournament week! #BBC23 #ButterfieldBDAChampionship pic.twitter.com/HHJSzqMkwD

— Butterfield Bermuda Championship (@Bermuda_Champ) November 6, 2023

So why is the field so poor this week compared to the other five events played in the fall?  A lot has to do with courses, Port Royal GC is a bit conceived in order to get it in the realm of a competitive course.  The Island of Bermuda is hard to get to, plus it’s very expensive in Bermuda.  But if the truth is to be told, the course is on a stretch of land that sees a lot of wind.  Last year saw winds every day of between 15 to 20 mph with winds getting to 31 mph on Sunday.  If there ever is something that professional golfers hate the most is wind.  Playing five or six straight days in windy conditions hurts players because they tend to make little swing tweaks that carry over to the weeks after.  Many have said that playing in a place of high winds is detrimental, so a lot of pros just don’t play in places of wind.

The good news is that for the first time since this event was first played, the wind is tame, starting at 7 mph on Thursday, 11 mph on Friday, and 15 mph over the weekend.  Temperatures each day will be between 74 and 77, but showers are supposed to hit on Sunday.  So for the week, the weather looks promising and we may get some low scores.

News from Mexico, a driving fool:

Adam Long is that player on Tour that keeps on ticking year after year. After four years on the Korn Ferry Tour, Long earned his PGA Tour card by finishing 13th on the Korn Ferry Tour money list. He hit instant fame on his sixth PGA Tour start when he shot a final-round 65 to win the American Express in Palm Springs, beating Phil Mickelson and Adam Hadwin. The following year, Long was runner-up twice at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and the 3M Open. But in 2021, he struggled with his game but was able to  Irish T-rd at Mayakoba. But after that, his game tanked; in 22 starts, he only made seven cuts, and his best finish was T-20th at Colonial. Long had two key elements to his game: the ability to putt well and to drive it in the fairway. He showed how straight of a driver he was in the World Wide Technology Championship by hitting 56 of 56 fairways.

Every. Fairway. Hit.@ALongShot needs to hit just his first two fairways @Bermuda_Champ to break the all-time record for consecutive fairways.

Brian Claar owns the current record with 59 in 1992. pic.twitter.com/5vLTpq8SnQ

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 6, 2023

He became the ninth player since 1997 to accomplish that feat. Still, the big difference was that the other eight accomplished that feat at the Old Course of St. Andrews and Kapalua, courses which had fewer par 3s, so, at Kapalua, a total of 60 fairways, and at St. Andrews had a total of 64. So Long became the first player in PGA Tour history since Brain Claar did the same at the 1992 Memorial to hit every fairway in a 72-hole event. For the season, Long ranks 13th in driving accuracy, hitting 66.78%. Despite the significant accomplishment, it didn’t help him much in his overall problem of being ranked 138th in the Fall Points list. Long finished T-23rd in Mexico, and for the season, it was only his fourth top-25 finish. While Long is great at hitting fairways and even making putts, Long only hit 56 of 72 greens, and his 77.97% average ranked T-66th of the 73 players who made the cut. So Long has two events to get into the top 125, or it’s a return to the Korn Ferry Tour, which he hasn’t seen since 2018.

Just about everyone hit the fairways in Mexico:

Yes, Long’s accomplishment was great, but let’s face the facts, fairways at El Cardonal at Diamante are very generous. They averaged 60 yards wide, enough to land a 747 on them. They were so abundant that of the 5,740 tee shots hit on par 4s and 5s,  5,194 hit the fairway, 90.48%. In looking at the numbers for the year, the next best for the year was 74.94 at the Masters. Now, looking back, since fairway hits have been kept by the PGA Tour since 1992, El Cardonal at Diamante set a new record as the first course in which over 90% of the drives hit the fairways. The previous best was at the 2010 Bob Hope when 85.32% of the fairways were hit at Silver Rock. So El Cardonal at Diamante made history in its PGA Tour debut as the course with the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour.

New irons for Cameron Young:

According to Golf.Com at the World Wide Technology Championship, Cameron Young debuted a new set of Titleist irons, which are called the 631CY. Now, don’t go to your local golf shop looking to buy these clubs; they are custom-made for Titleist players. The premise of the clubs is to keep the center of gravity, launch, and turf interaction consistent by widening the sole and removing weight to induce a higher launch. Now, Young has been playing around with different irons since April at the RBC Heritage and decided after using them a lot in his off weeks at the WWT Championship. The irons looked to be a God-send as Young hit 18 of 18 greens in the first round to shoot 65. But in the second round, he hit 11 of 14 greens and shot 74.

https://twitter.com/Titleist/status/1719782672543666339?s=20

He followed it with rounds of 72-64 to finish T-54th. Despite hitting 57 of 72 greens, which ranked T-57th, Young is having another set made with some tweaks that Young could use in his next start at the RSM Classic. Young is still looking for his first win, and his game struggled a bit in 2023, as his best finish was runner-up at the WGC-Dell Tech Match Play Championship. In 2023, Young has improved his greens hit for the year, ranking 53rd this year compared to 143rd last year. But Young’s biggest problem this year has been putting. Last year, he ranked 68th in Strokes Gained Putting, but in 2023, he is 153rd. Another problem for Young is that his regular caddie, Paul Tesori, is home in Florida with a back injury that he may need surgery on. While home, Tesori took X-rays of the four damaged discs in his back. The pictures showed the ruptured disc was worse than they thought, but Tesori wants to rehab for a month and do tests after that to see if a possible microdiscectomy is the course of action.

He continues to roll along:

Ludvig Aberg kept his excellent play going with a T-10th in Mexico. It was his seventh straight top-15 worldwide finish going back to the Wyndham Championship. One of the reasons for the good finishes is his play in the final round in his last seven starts. The only time he didn’t break 70 was his final round 76 at the BMW PGA Championship, but in his other six finishes, his final round average is 65.5. In Mexico last week, Aberg shot 64 to finish T-10th, and at his previous start at the Shriners Children’s, Aberg shot 62.

Ludvig Aberg's FedEx Cup Fall:

12 rounds
11 rounds in the 60s (yesterday's 72 the only outlier)
Birdies: 69
Final round scoring average: 64.66

Only a matter of time. pic.twitter.com/61edWCuwAk

— The First Cut Podcast (@FirstCutPod) November 5, 2023

He isn’t playing in Bermuda this week but will be at the RSM Classic with two goals. He is 53rd in the world rankings and needs to be in the top 50 at the end of the year to qualify for the Masters and other majors. His second goal, which may be more challenging to achieve, he is 95th in the FedEx Fall Standings and will need about 440 points in his RSM start, which is either a solo 2nd or a win. But we can easily say that even though he hasn’t won, Aberg has been the bright spot on the fall swing.

Quickies from last week:

• Oliver Betschart, a 15-year-old local prodigy, will become the youngest player to compete on the PGA Tour since 2014 and the fifth youngest since 2000 when he plays this week in Bermuda. Betschart got into the field by being one of the four qualifiers.   When Betschart hits his opening shot Thursday, Betschart will become the youngest player to compete on the PGA Tour since 2014 and the fifth youngest since 2000. Michelle Wie West is the youngest since 2000, having competed in the 2004 Sony Open in Hawaii at 14 years, 3 months, and 7 days.

Oliver Betschart was just 7-years-old when he hit his first hole-in-one, and this week the 15-year-old will become the youngest player to compete in a PGA Tour event since 2014 when he tees off in the Butterfield #Bermuda Championship https://t.co/zxjGZzxnm5

— BernewsSports (@BernewsSports) November 6, 2023

• Chesson Hadley was supposed to play in Bermuda, but after shooting 63 on Sunday to finish T-7th, he withdrew. For Hadley, with a T-7th finish at the Shriners and World Wide Technology, he moved up 18 spots to 104th in the FedEx Fall points. With the finish, Hadley is assured to retain his PGA Tour card for 2024. Hadley is planning on playing at the season-ending RSM Classic.
• C.T. Pan missed the cut in Mexico and will be 125th on the FedEx Fall points list heading into  Bermuda. Patton Kizzire shot a final round 63 to finish T-15th in Mexico and jumped from 130th to 126th on the points list. Both Pan and Kizzire will be playing in Bermuda.
• Ben Griffin returns to Bermuda to exact a little revenge on Port Royal.

Positivity in defeat.

An emotional @BenGriffinGolf is optimistic after his best career finish on TOUR. pic.twitter.com/qJjUGBaVhB

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 30, 2022

The PGA Tour rookie led last year’s event during the final round but played holes 12-16 in a combined 6 over en route to a T-3 finish. It is hard to believe that Griffin worked as a loan officer for a mortgage group in North Carolina during the spring and summer of 2021. Thanks to some generous offers from members at Highland Springs C.C. in North Carolina, Griffen got into the final stage of Q-Shool and got a Korn Ferry Tour membership for 2022. He was 15th on the season-long Korn Ferry Tour Eligibility Points List to graduate to the PGA Tour for 2023. On top of his excellent finish last year in Bermuda, Griffin was T-2nd at the Sanderson Farms Championship, losing a playoff to Luke List. After that, he missed the cut at the Shriners, was T-64th at the Zozo, and T-23rd last week in Mexico. Griffin is 56th on the FedEx Fall Points list, so he has a Tour card for 2024 and is in good shape to play in the two signature events in 2024.

• Matt Kuchar shot a 6-under 66 Sunday, and while it wasn’t enough for the win, his T-2nd moved him up 14 spots in the FedExCup Fall standings to 52nd, all but securing him a spot in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational next year.
• The week in Mexico won’t conclude, though, without some heartbreak. Kuchar led by six shots upon reaching the 15th tee in Saturday’s third round then pulled his tee shot into dense bushes and made a quadruple bogey. He followed with a bogey-par-par finish, falling into a share of the 54-hole lead with Villegas. Kuchar rebounded with a bogey-free 66 on Sunday, but it wasn’t enough to withstand Van Rooyen’s closing flurry.

Significant movement up the FedEx Fall standings:

• Another who should be playing in the signature events is Mackenzie Hughes. With his T-7th finish in Mexico, he moved from 57th to 53rd, which should be enough to finish in the Next ten races.
• Doug Ghim gave himself some breathing room after a T-15th in Mexico. Ghim moved from No. 123 to No. 117 after his week in Mexico, a good improvement over missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms and Shriners.
• Camilo Villegas‘ T-2nd was his first top-10 finish in nearly two-and-a-half-years on the PGA Tour. It moved Villegas up 76 spots in the FedExCup Fall to 147th. This places him 127 points from the top 125, so playing this week and next will give him a chance to keep climbing.
• Austin Cook shot the low round of the week, a  final-round 62, to finish T-10th and climb up 24 spots to 155th. Finishing inside the top 150 means Cook will keep conditional status on Tour for 2024, an improvement in his Past Champion category.

Things you need to know about the Port Royal GC

Located on the island of Bermuda, which is in the Atlantic Ocean 650 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  The course is on the southwest part of the island with most of the holes with views of the Atlantic.  It was originally supposed to be built in 1965 and they had some problems with one farmer who changed his mind on selling the property.  In 1967 all the land was bought and Robert Trent Jones did the routing and the course opened in 1970.

Course information:

• Port Royal GC
• Southampton, Bermuda
• 6,828 yards     Par 36-35–72

The course is government-run and one of the most popular public courses in the world and it was the host of the Bermuda Open.  The course got a $16 million renovation in 2009 so that it could host the PGA Grand Slam of Golf.  With the support of the Bermuda Government, Port Royal is now one of the world’s premier public golf courses boasting TifEagle greens, a state-of-the-art irrigation system, and sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole.

https://twitter.com/PGATOUR/status/1722011047047958861?s=20

Jones built the course to utilize the ocean views along with the par 3 16th hole that dangles over the Atlantic Ocean.  At 6,828 yards, it’s the shortest course on the PGA Tour for 2023 (The Travelers TPC River Highlands at 6,852 is 24 yards longer), but one that won’t appeal to long hitters.  The reason, most of the holes have sharp doglegs, which require finesse off the tee.  The course only has three holes that don’t dogleg, so most players have to throttle back off the tee.  So off the bat, those who are short off the tee have an advantage.  In looking at the previous champions, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd are the shortest players on the PGA Tour.  The most significant protection Port Royal has is mother nature.  Sitting on a bluff over the Atlantic, it has severe wind coming off of the ocean.  On a perfect day, winds will be around 10 mph.  But on average, expect average winds between 17 and 20 mph, which gusts up to 30 miles per hour.  So look for a player that does well in windy conditions.  This is one of the reasons you don’t see more marquee names; most players tend to avoid courses with a history of high winds.  Many a player have found themselves all messed up after playing a few rounds in the wind.  So look for those who excel in windy conditions, players who grew up in windy places like Texas, Florida, Australia, or Great Britain and Ireland. Those players who fit the bill are Lucas Glover, Luke List, Alex Smalley, Thomas Detry, Brian Gay, Ryan Armour, and Russell Knox.  I also have to look at players with a lot of experience, this is not a course that will be tough on a young player to win, so I see the champion who has won before.  Most importantly, look for those that have played a lot in windy conditions.  Lastly, you want a player who can play well on par 4s, past winners Brendon Todd was 12 under on the par 4s, 2021 winner Brian Gay was 15 under, 2022 winner Lucas Herbert was 7 under, and last year’s winner Seamus Power was 11 under on the par 4s.

Still, the course will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, so those that have offense will do good.

Putting has been key to success at Port Royal in recent years. Only one winner has ranked outside the top five in putts per round (Herbert in 2022), and he ranked T6 in that stat. The narrow, winding Port Royal layout offers plenty of wedge opportunities, generally leading to several mid-range birdie putts in the 10- to 15-foot range. Players know they’ll likely need to convert several in this range to have a chance on the back nine on Sunday.

Most DraftKings points earned:

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 Wide World Technology (We don’t include team events), a total of 51 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Adam Scott – $10,700
• Thomas Detry – $10,500
• Brendon Todd – $10,300
• Akshay Bhatia – $10,000
• Lucas Herbert – $9,800
• Alex Noren – $9,600
• Lucas Glover – $9,500
• Ben Griffin – $9,300
• Luke List – $9,200
• Taylor Pendrith – $9,100
• Doug Ghim – $9,000

This is another really hard event to peg.  There are lots of players at the top that you don’t want to pay over $9,000 for.  Making it harder there is a 36-hole cut so we have to try and pick six that will be around all four days.  I really feel that the most important thing is to make sure all your players stick around for the weekend.  Lot’s of former Korn Ferry Tour players in the field, along with a lot of no-name players, it’s time to pick those that will do well.

Hard to believe that DraftKings picked Adam Scott at $10,700 as the top player.  The reason for that is his impressive career record.  But in 2023 Scott has struggled and not played much lately.  In the last eight weeks, he has only played once finishing T-41st at the Zozo Championship.  So he is a big no for me.  Thomas Detry at $10,500 is a hard choice for this week mostly due to his high cost.  Detry can put points on the board, he averages 65.7 per start and in two Bermuda starts was 2nd last year and T-22nd the year before.  He does make cuts but his fall finishes were T-51st in Japan and T-38th in Mexico last week.  Off of the fact that he finished strong last week in Mexico, I say he is a toss-up pick.  Of all the players in this price range, Brendon Todd at $10,300 could be the most stealth-like player.  He won the inaugural Bermuda championship and quietly goes about his business.  He was 6th in his last start at the Fortinet and he seems to play well in windy conditions and short courses.  He is a good pick.  Akshay Bhatia at $10,000 could also be a good pick, plays well on courses by the sea, Was 2nd at Puerto Rico, 4th at the Mexico Open, and T-17th last year in Bermuda.  Lucas Herbert at $9,800 may be a past winner on this course, but his play of late isn’t that great including a T-31st last week in Mexico.  I would pass on him.  Alex Noren at $9,600 is not a good driver and that is a problem for him on this course.  Lucas Glover at $9,500 was my pick last week in Mexico and he played great the first two rounds and ruined it with a 72-68 finish and was T-59th.  I still say yes on Glover because he has been playing well to end his summer.  Ben Griffin at $9,300 returns to Bermuda to exact a little revenge on Port Royal.  He was leading but struggled on Sunday to shoot 72 and finish T-3rd.  So I like him, think he will contend.  Luke List at $9,200 is worth considering, has played well in the fall including a win at the Sanderson Farms.  Taylor Pendrith at $9,100 is also worth considering, was 5th in his only Bermuda start in 2022, plus he was T-3rd at the Shriners and T-15th at the WWT last week.  Doug Ghim at $9,000 is priced too high for a guy who has missed two cuts in his last four starts.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money and will make the cut?:

Alex Smalley at $8,900 is the type of person who could rear up and win this week or spin out of control and miss the cut.  He finished T-16th at the Sanderson Farms.  In his last start at the Shriners, shot 73-64-67-75 and his roller-coaster T-61st finish shows that Smalley has the game to win, just has to have that perfect week. He did finish T-11th in Bermuda last year and T-12th the year before. Ryan Palmer at $8,500 is a person to watch because of the way he finished in Mexico.  After a first-round 71, Palmer shot 66-65-64 getting better as it was obvious that he found something in his game.  Will the magic continue in Bermuda or will the 3,000-mile journey take that magic away?  Troy Merritt at $7,800 is a person to watch, the course suits his short/straight game and he plays well in windy conditions.  Justin Lower at $7,600 is a person who played well in Bermuda finishing T-8th last year and he finished T-23rd last week in Mexico shooting 65 in the final round.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

Lots of players that you have to go through very carefully to find a combination of making lots of cuts and potential for doing well this week in very windy conditions. Off the bat, I like Patton Kizzire at $7,400.  Plays well in windy conditions and last week in Mexico finished T-15th with closing rounds of 63-69.  Russell Knox is a good pick at $7,300.  Like that, he has played in all four Bermuda Championships and made the cut four times with a best finish of T-11th.  He has also made the cut in 10 of his last 13 starts, he can give you some consistent points this week.  Austin Cook at $7,200 is good when you consider he finished T-10th last week in Mexico shooting 68-62 over the weekend.  Camilo Villegas at $7,100 is good considering he has made three cuts in three Bermuda starts, he also played well in Mexico finishing T-2nd, and could use another finish like that this week.  Now don’t laugh at me when I say I like Brian Gay at $6,700.  He plays on both the PGA Tour and the Champions Tour and despite only making two cuts in 11 starts for 2023 is a good bet in the event.  He has played in all four Bermuda Championships and has a win in 2021, T-3rd in 2020 T-12th in 2022 and T-11th last year.  Shows that no matter how he is playing, will do well in Bermuda and make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Bermuda Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• So what vital stats are essential at Port Royal GC?  This is the shortest course on the PGA Tour and short hitters that keep it safe off the tee seem to do better than bombers  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes, the field does have five major champions playing (Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Adam Scott, and Jimmy Walker) but after that, Thomas Detry, Ben Griffin, Brendon Todd, and Akshay Bhatia as your key guys  But none of them will win because the winner will be the person you least expect.
• Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.