BlogHero World Challenge Preview and Picks

So, 2023 is ending, and the last individual event is the Hero World Challenge. This event started in 1999 as another off-season event. Back then, it was called the Silly Season, with half a dozen unofficial events, which were nothing more than a big money grab. 24 years later, the Hero World Challenge is the last end-of-the-season event left, mainly because Tiger Woods associated himself with the event. In 2016, the event moved to the Bahamas, one of the most exclusive resorts on the planet.

Tiger is back

We haven’t seen Tiger since he withdrew from the Masters nine months ago. Days later, he underwent subtalar fusion surgery on his ankle. The early buzz is that Woods is in good shape, considering everything he has gone through the last three years. Woods has been sighted caddying for his son Charlie, and the two will return to the PNC Championship, an event they almost won two years ago. Woods told AP last month that his ankle is fine and pain-free. The big question is, as much as everyone is happy to see him compete again, the reality is that he can’t compete with these players. I don’t think he will embarrass himself, but at the same time, nobody expects him to finish in the top five. Still having Tiger back will get a lot of attention, and we will get a hint on whether Tiger will compete in 2024.

Tournament host @TigerWoods to play in the 2023 #HeroWorldChallenge. He is joined by exemptions @JustinRose99 and @Lucas_Glover_ to round out the field of 20 set to complete at Albany, Bahamas Nov. 30 – Dec. 3 pic.twitter.com/gBsTXGrTVl

— TGR Live (@TGRLiveEvents) November 18, 2023

Another player back from injury: 

Tiger Woods isn’t the only player making a return to action at the Hero World Challenge, as Will Zalatoris will make his long-awaited comeback. Zalatoris won the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, but he hurt his back the next week and withdrew from the BMW Championship. At the time, he was diagnosed with two herniated discs, and it was decided that he would take a few months off and rehab the injury. Because of the injury, he couldn’t play in the Presidents Cup and wasn’t ready to play in the Hero Challenge. He did show up at the Sentry in Maui, and when he finished T-11th, everyone felt that he was back to normal. Things got even better when he finished 4th at the Genesis Open, but things weren’t right. The pain was still lingering, and after not playing in a match at the WGC-Dell Match Play, he withdrew from the Masters. After that, he underwent surgery and hasn’t played since. With all this time on his hands, since he was shut down for the rest of the season, he returned to Wake Forest. He left the school a semester early to start his golf career and promised his parents that he’d graduate. In August, he finished the requirements to get his psychology major. At the same time, he went through a thorough rehabilitation process and, in August, started to chip and putt. He started hitting golf balls in mid-September, when he was entirely out of the rehab protocol to start playing again. His return this week is a good sign that things are going in the right direction.

Welcome back Will Zalatoris! https://t.co/hlxBaDQmOm

— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) November 27, 2023

Zalatoris will be playing for the first time in the Hero. He joins Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman as the only players in the field not to play in the Hero. Of the 17 others, Lucas Glover is the only one who hasn’t played at Albany. Glover played in the 2009 Hero and finished 13th.

So, what is up with Collin Morikawa?

When Morikawa won the Zozo Championship in October, little did anyone know the drama happening in his life. Since he was eight years old, Morikawa has worked with Rick Sessinghaus. Until last year, Sessignhaus was his only teacher, helping Morikawa’s psychology outlook. Morikawa is the best from tee to green, but he has always struggled with the putter. But last year, Morikawa started working with putting coach Stephen Sweeney, and he has seen some improvement in his putting.

https://twitter.com/collin_morikawa/status/1716109894967832580?s=20

In 2021, he ranked 178th in Strokes Gained putting, improving to 131st in 2022 and 114th in 2023. But after the Ryder Cup, Morikawa made the significant step to stop working with Sessignhus and started working with Mark Blackburn, who collaborates with Justin Rose and Max Homa. He got great results in a very short time, winning in Japan at the Zozo Championship. Morikawa never mentioned the change in Japan and said nothing on his social media channels. With him withdrawing from the Netflix Cup due to tweaking his back, we never got any news, so we will find out what is up with Collin this week. It will be interesting to see if he has shown any improvement. I have to say that with his excellent record at Albany Golf Club, he was 6th last year and T-5th in 2022 he is on my top-three list for players to watch. Two others to watch are Max Homa and Justin Thomas, who played well a few weeks back in South Africa.

Is this a hint as to why these three aren’t in the Hero this week?

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele were on the original field list and mysteriously dropped out or were taken off by tournament officials. Jon Rahm, who won at Albany in 2019 and was 2nd in 2020, is also not playing this week. Last year, Rahm finished T-8th. The reason I am mentioning them is because all three are in the rumor mill for possibly switching to LIV golf for 2023. I try not to talk much about LIV golf because I consider that Tour nothing more than an exhibition.  Frankly I wonder who gives a hoot about LIV golf team, how many people I wonder are like me and have completely lost interest in LIV golf? Now, I am not going into any personal stuff, but if a player like Brooks Koepka is given over $100 million to play on that tour, most will find thee money hard to turn it down. Most of the players on the LIV Tour are either in the sunset years of their careers or have had injuries. They did coax Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith to play, both were healthy and coming off some great wins, with Johnson winning the Masters and Smith winning the British Open. We don’t know what is happening to that Tour. With the announcement in June by PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan of a partnership with the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, which finances LIV Golf, many thought it was the end of LIV Golf. But with no announcement from Monahan or the PGA Tour and with LIV golf coming out with a schedule for 2024, it looks like that Tour will play next year. In a way, it makes sense. All of their contracts with players, those who work for LIV Golf, and those who do the television of the events are all on three-year deals. Since LIV paid most people double what they were getting in their previous jobs and on top of that gave them at least 75% of their fees upfront, it only makes sense that there would be a third year of LIV Golf.

In 2023, they didn’t sign any new players, but the rumor mill is running rampant that they will add some high-profile players. Two names on the list are Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, who have expressed some displeasure with what is happening on the PGA Tour right now. There aren’t any hard figures on how much they have been offered and for how long, but many believe the figure for them would be over $100 million. Now, in the case of Jon Rahm, media outlets are saying that Rahm has an offer for between $500 and $600 million to switch.

It’s hard for me to put my emotions into words, but I want to thank everyone for supporting me. This one was for Seve. Having my family there made it even better. A dream come true! @TheMasters pic.twitter.com/LZ0JX41CIv

— Jon Rahm Rodriguez (@JonRahmOfficial) April 12, 2023

Hell, today I saw in a Twitter post that Max Homa turned down $500 million! Gosh, think about saying no to someone offering you $500 million to just play golf. Despite all of this, Rahm is one of the top players, it may be an offer too hard to turn down. In a way, it’s like winning the lottery. Many speculate that Rahm can buy just about anything he wants. He can play anytime he wants on the PGA Tour and doesn’t fly commercially to events like most. It’s private planes and big homes with cooking staff for Rahm, so many wonder if Rahm has enough to say no to LIV golf. Honestly, we can’t blame him if he goes. We can’t blame anyone who gets a big payday for saying no to it.  You’re taking the money over being in the history books as one of the greatest golfers in the world.  That’s what would happen if Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, or even Max Homa or Ludvig Aberg go to LIV golf, in a matter of years and even months they will lose their spot in the history books of golf because LIV golf won’t be in those books.

I don’t know which way these players will go, and yes, if all three do leave, it will be a big media circle. One thing that I can say is with the likes of Phil Michelson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Bryson DeChambeau and Sergio Garcia not leaving LIV Golf the PGA Tour won’t miss them because frankly nobody really cares about them.  Think of it this way, when Aaron Rodgers left the Packers for the Jets, there was a big mess for about a few weeks in Green Bay.  But do you think that Packers fans care now, many have forgotten about Rodgers and have moved on.  So I would venture to say that if Rahm, Cantlay, and Schauffele join them, they will probably not be missed either. But historically, it will be a sad day if these three, who have outstanding records, won’t be able to achieve more glory and go down in history as great players because they needed to leave their kids and grandkids a few more dollars.

Things you need to know about the Albany Golf Club

The course is part of a luxury resort community on 600 oceanside acres in New Providence in The Bahamas. The course, designed by Ernie Els and opened in 2010, is unique because it sits on an oceanfront site with the best weather in the Bahamas. The course gets gentle breezes off the ocean to keep the temperature around 80. In its seventh year as host, the Ernie Els-designed Albany GC combines the best of links and desert features with windswept dunes and numerous scenic and strategically challenging water features. The club has one of the finest practice faculties, which features a 400-yard driving range and plenty of chipping and putting greens. The club also has an art performance center. So it only makes sense that many PGA Tour pros are members of Albany, including Els, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Trevor Immelman, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, and Tim Clark. On top of that, Woods, Scott, Els, and Rose have a home in Albany.

Course information:

• Albany Golf Club
• New Providence, The Bahamas
• 7,449 yards     Par 36-36–72

https://twitter.com/TGRLiveEvents/status/1725242573365870738?s=20

The course can stretch to 7,500, but this week will play at 7,449. It has five par 5s and 3s. Els took a flat site and dug out some water hazards, excavating sand from the deep-water channel, which became the resort’s marina. The excavated material became sand dunes that separated the fairways and made the course look like it’s been on Linkland for thousands of years. The course is challenging for those playing this week in Albany, but low scores are the norm. That’s because the course is in pristine shape. Along with wide-open fairways, greens that allow players to attack the pin are the reason for the low scores. One element that makes it more challenging is the wind, which blows every day but is mostly around 10 mph. When it blows, the course has some bite, but winds will be normal at 15 to 22 mph this week.

The secret to playing well at Albany Golf Club

This course has had an incredible seven years. Intriguingly, the winners weren’t the marquee players, who were favorites. Each of the winners is a player you wouldn’t believe could win. A perfect example is the last winner of the Hero, Viktor Hovland, and the previous winner, Henrik Stenson. They were not the favorites, but both played very well, beating the favorite, last year, Hovland was a shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler, while Stenson looked like a superstar, beating Jon Rahm by a shot. Unfortunately, both didn’t play well after that, Hovland did win the Dubai Desert two months later and was great in the Florida swing but played terribly after the Players. For Stenson But since Stenson wins, he has only finished in the top-20 in three of his 50 starts. He has since joined LIV Golf and won an event on that Tour. Like the other winners, Hideki Matsuyama finished dead last in 2016 and won it the following year. So the key is to look at those in the field and see who has played well of late. In 2018, Rickie Fowler won and has struggled.

Since this is an unofficial event, stats aren’t kept, so we have very little intel on the keys to winning. In looking at six of the seven champions at Albany, all of them are great ball strikers. The exception is 2018 winner Rickie Fowler, who was a great putter and won thanks to the short-stick. You can’t go wrong with a player who is high in greens in regulation, but look at those with Great Proximity to Hole numbers. Also, look at players who have been on the cusp of winning and haven’t achieved many wins. Look at players like Max Homa, Cameron Young, and Collin Morikawa over Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Viktor Hovland. For this year, I have to say there is no true favorite for this week.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 RSM Classic (We don’t include team events), a total of 53 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Here is a look at all 20 players in the field:

DraftKings tips

So lets make some picks for the Hero Challenge going off of the above lists and pick six players, which would be winners?

Remember with a $50,000 cap that means we have to average $8,333 per player:

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Viktor Hovland – $10,800
• Scottie Scheffler – $10,700
• Max Homa – $10,100
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,200
• Cameron Young – $8,700
• Justin Thomas – $8,400
• Rickie Fowler – $8,000

There are only 20 players in a non-cut event, this is a dream come true. Making the dream even better, only three of the 20 are over $10,000, while between $7,000 to $9,900 are only eight players. Those under $7,000 are players like Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, and Brian Harman, so that we can pick many big-name players. Still, as we told you above, this event hasn’t seen many marquee winners, so maybe that is why DraftKings priced things. This is all good news, but the bad news is that you better pick winners. I will say that the person with the most points will have five of his players in the top six.

Off the bat is Viktor Hovland at $10,800, now since winning the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship has only played three times. He had a great Ryder Cup, was 5th at the BMW PGA Championship, and T-2nd at the DP World a few weeks back. Yes, you don’t take him because winning the same event three times in a row is hard. But in 24 events in 2023, he averages 86.3 points per event, the second-best average of those in the field. I can’t see a reason not to buy him since there aren’t many high-priced players. Next up is Scottie Scheffler, who is at $10,700 and averages 100.2 points per event. In the 24 events in 2023, he has only been out of the top ten six times, so you may think he is automatic. Besides the Ryder Cup, Scheffler hasn’t played, which could raise warning signs of rust. I think it’s best not to take Scottie this week. Max Homa, at $10,100, suffers almost the same faith as Scheffler on lack of play. Since the Tour Championship, he has played in the Ryder Cup and the Fortinet Championship (T-7th). Another reason not to take Homa is that the course may not suit him since he was 17th last year. But you picked him because he won the Nedbank Challenge three weeks ago, so he is playing well. Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is also worth a look at. As explained in the Buzz, Morikawa has a new swing coach and won last month at the Zozo Championship in Japan. Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,200 is a reasonable price, and he did win in Scotland just after the Ryder Cup. But I am not touching him because he was T-27th at the DP World and, in two Albany starts, was T-13th last year and T-12th the previous year. Cameron Young, at $8,700, is a good pick, even though his play has not been good. He was T-54th at the WWT Championship and T-38th at the RSM Classic. But like that, he was 3rd last year at Albany, so I like him this week. Justin Thomas, at $8,400, is a good pick due to his excellent record at Albany. He has been in 5th place in his last three Albany starts and has played well of late, he was 4th at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Rickie Fowler at $8,000 is a hard choice. He hasn’t played well since his win at the Rocket Mortgage, but his record at Albany is terrific, including a win in 2018. I think he will be in the running on Sunday.

*Players in that $6,000 to $7,600 price range, which ones are worth the money and get you maximum points? Off the bat, I see problems in Tony Finau at $7,600, Jordan Spieth at $7,400, and Wyndham Clarke at $7,300. They all have the same thing in common: they haven’t played well at Albany lately and haven’t played much in the last three months, so you want to avoid these three. Now I know that Sam Burns, at $7,100, hasn’t played since the Tour Championship, but his game is well suited for Albany. Keegan Bradley, at $6,800, is also someone to watch, a reasonable price for a player like him. Also, like Jason Day at $6,500 despite his lack of play, we will see if his game is sharp and ready for 2024. As for Will Zalatoris at $6,600 and Tiger Woods at $6,100, I would avoid them.