The Sentry Key Fantasy Stats

The Sentry

January 4th – 7th, 2023

Plantation Course at Kapalua

Kapalua, Maui,, HI

Par: 73 / Yardage: 7,596

Purse: $15 Million

with $2.7 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jon Rahm

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for the Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions and using data from all the players in the field with stats from the 2023 season.
It is essential to know that this course looks tough on TV, but it’s one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Last year, the field’s scoring average was 68.92, so with par being 73, the average score was just over 3 under par, making it the easiest of the 58 courses on the PGA Tour in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sentry for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 68.22, it was the easiest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 69.32, it was the easiest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 72.23, it was 20th hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 70.92, it was 44th hardest of 49 courses that year
The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost 4 shots between 2022 and 2020?

First, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses to hold a PGA Tour event.

https://twitter.com/TheSentry/status/1741654898008285226?s=20

The course was carved out of the side of a mountain, so the elements play an essential role. The architects Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore put a lot of thought into routing the holes and built the course with trade winds in mind. The trade wind blows toward the ocean, meaning the wind goes in the same direction as the slope and the grain. The ball then rolls for miles, or it seems that way. Each year the Plantation course appears to have its share of 400-yard drives. With Kona winds, it blows up the hill and into the grain, which reduces the role. Last year, the course had six drives of 400 yards or longer. In 2021 the course had 8 drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2000, there were only five; the difference in 2000 was that the week had Kona winds while the other years had trade winds. Last year the Plantation course had 89 drives between 400 and the longest drive of the year, 459 yards by Luke List in the 3rd round on the 7th hole.
So the course is at the mercy of the weather conditions, mainly the degree of wind and the direction.
The Plantation Course is a resort course not geared to be super tough. The course is the only par 73 and that is because the course has four par 5s, but only three par 3s. But the big reason for the course being accessible is the fairways; there is no way you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 777 can land on them.
Last year the course ranked 40th out of 58 courses in Driving Accuracy at 62.75% of drives in the fairway.
Here is the Driving Accuracy of the Sentry for the last few years:
*2022 – Driving Accuracy was 73.82%, ranking 49th out of the 50 courses for the year
*2021 – Driving Accuracy was 79.01%, ranking 51st out of the 51 courses for the year
*2020 – Driving Accuracy was 80.93%, ranking 41st out of the 41 courses for the year
*2019 – Driving Accuracy was 76.62%, ranking 48th out of the 49 courses for the year

One thing about the course is that since the fairways are firm and many of them go downhill, you may think the average drive would be enormous. But it isn’t. Last year the average drive for every drive was 307.3 yards and ranked 41st out of 58 courses. In 2022, the average drive was 304.3 yards, making it the 34th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
Many say that the course is for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage; last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, finished 7th on the PGA Tour in driving distance for 2023 and 2nd at Kapalua with a 322.9 average. Last year, Collin Morikawa was runner-up but finished 26th (out of 38 players) at Kapalua, averaging 304.2 yards.
Here is a look at the last four champions of the Sentry and how they did in driving distance:
*2022 – Cameron Smith ranked 4th, average drive 313.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 75.0% of the fairways.
*2021 – *Harris English ranked 25th, average drive 277.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 83.3% of the fairways.
*2020 – Justin Thomas ranked 11th, average drive 271.5 yards. Was T-19th in Driving Accuracy hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
*2019 – Xander Schauffele ranked 14th, average drive 280.4 yards. Was T-15th in Driving Accuracy hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
*English was the second shortest winner in the 24-year history (the shortest was Jim Fury, 44.4 in 2001).

In other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions in the last few years:
*Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016.
*Even better yet, Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, and Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history.
*Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance.
So the myth that this course is for bombers is incorrect, except for one little fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel, the Plantation course tends to get hit by high winds. When that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north (Kona), it helps short hitters. The same thing happens when it’s dry, firm, and fast; it allows the short hitters. For this week, a strange thing could happen. Winds will come out of the northeast and are predicted to be very low, with the average being only between 9 and 12 mph. There has been very little rain over the last week, and with no rain this week, the course will be dry, firm, and very fast, so look for this to be a massive help for shorter hitters.

After play in 2019, the Plantation Course was closed and had an intensive, $11 million renovation project. The course was re-grassed and reshaped to make it play firmer and faster, which it did, making it a bit harder. They also redid the greens taking out the slope and undulations, which made the course easier.

https://twitter.com/VC606/status/1741780459833499835?s=20

The one undisputed fact that many still don’t understand about the winners at Kapalua that will probably continue, in most cases, is that the best putter has been the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: of the Kapalua winners since 1999, the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round was 4th until 2020.
Justin Thomas ranked T-11th, which is the highest of any winner. Still, if you looked at the playoff, Patrick Reed was in it and ranked 1st in putts per round.
In 2021, Harris English ranked T-5th in putts per round, so you can see putting is the key to winning at Kapalua, if your a poor putter, you have just about no chance of winning.
2021 was won by Cameron Smith, who is considered one of the best putters in the game. For the week, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and, from 4 to 8 feet, was ranked 2nd, making 16 of 18 putts.
Last year Jon Rahm was 1st in putts per round, 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. In putts from 10 to 15 feet, he was 2nd, making 5 of 8 tries. In putts from 15 to 20 feet, he was 5th, making 3 of 10 attempts. In putts from 20 to 25 feet, he was 3rd, making 2 of 5 putts, and from inside ten feet, he ranked 15th, completing 61 of 68 tries. More importantly, he was 1st in making 31 one-putts, and in 3 putts, he only had one for the week.

Now, Thomas didn’t put that great in his win in 2020. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked 29th (out of 34 players in the field), making 66 of 78 putts. But what Thomas did right was hitting greens. He ranked 3rd, hitting 56 of 72. They all ranked in the top ten of the last seven winners, so hitting greens is essential.

Another critical item inputting is the lack of three-putts:
*Last year Jon Rahm only three-putted once.
*In 2022 Cameron Smith had only one three-putt
*In 2021 Harris English didn’t have a single three-putt
*In 2020 Justin Thomas had one three-putt over the 72 holes, which ranked T-2nd
*In 2019 Xander Schauffele had 1 in the first round
*In 2018 Dustin Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt
*In 2017 Justin Thomas had just 2 three-putts

Also, all of the winners were good at scrambling except for the last four champions:

*In 2023 Jon Rahm ranked T-13th in scrambling:
*In 2022 Cameron Smith ranked T-17th in scrambling
*In 2021 Harris English ranked T-17th in scrambling
*In 2020 Kevin Thomas ranked 32nd as he only got it up and down in 7 of the 16 greens missed
*In 2019 Xander Schauffele was 8th
*In 2018 Dustin Johnson was 6th
*In 2017 Justin Thomas was 12th in scrambling
*In 2016 Jordan Spieth was 3rd
*In 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd
*The same goes for 2014 winner Zach Johnson.

One thing to remember about Thomas’s victory in 2020, it wasn’t pleasant. He made bogeys on 16 and 18 to force the playoff but made up when he went birdie, par, birdie in the playoff. The year before Xander Schauffele’s victory was historic as he shot 62, the lowest round shot by a champion at Kapalua. But how about Jon Rahm’s win last year? After entering the final round seven shots back, Rahm equaled the largest come-from-behind victory at the Sentry. Things looked even grimmer as he bogeyed the first hole while 3rd round leader Collin Morikawa made birdie to lead by nine over Rahm. The Spaniard birdied four of the next five holes he played, and with birdies at 9, 13, and 14, he was only three back. Morikawa made his first bogey of the week at 14, and minutes later, Rahm made an 11-footer for eagle as they were tied. For Morikawa, his problems continued with bogeys at 15 and 16. When Rahm birdied 18, he won by two. Rahm one-putted six of his final seven holes.
So the key to remember about this week’s event in Maui is to look for those that putt well. Sure, if they hit it long, it’s an added plus, but putting rules this week. Also, remember the course will play firm and fast, so look for those short hitters.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 8,722 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall, putting stats ranked it the 8th hardest to put in 2023, as one putt is at a premium, as the course was the 8th hardest in that stat. Three putts are expected as the course ranked 38th in 3-putt avoidance last year. Last year Jon Rahm was 1st in one-putts (had 31) and T-8th in 3-putt avoidance (only had 1). In 2022 Cameron Smith was 1st in one-putts and T-13th in 3-putt avoidance.

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation, 82.03% were hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In Proximity to hole, players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year, they averaged 39 feet, 2 inches, which was 13th on the course in 2023. As for winner Rahm, he averaged 40 feet, 2 inches and ranked 23rd So you have to not only get on the green, but Proximity to hole is important

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field was the easiest in birdie average and easiest in Par Breakers last year. Rahm made 28 birdies, the 2nd best of anyone in the field.

*Scrambling: With big greens, it’s nearly impossible to miss them; still, if you do miss a green, you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 26th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because you better get it up and down for those that win. Last year, Rahm missed 11 greens and got it up and down 7 times (63.64%) to rank T-13th, again showing how this stat has been significant in past years.

58 of the 59 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.