BlogSentry Tournament of Champions Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Happy New Year to all of you.

So, this week, we will start the new PGA Tour 2024 season. Since 2014, the PGA Tour has used a wrap-around schedule, which started in Sept/October. Before that, between 1986 and 2013, the season began with the Sentry, and in all of the times I went to the Sentry, that was always the beginning of the Golf year. So it’s back to how it used to be with one minor change. As you can see, this week is simply The Sentry; the Tournament of Champions has been taken off. Even though the number one requirement to get into this event was to win in the year before, with this event now becoming a “signature” event, it now includes all of the players that finished the FedEx Cup point list 50th or better. So of the field of 59, these players did not win an event in 2023 (Byeong Hun An, Patrick Cantlay, Eric Cole, Cam Davis, Harris English, Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, Russell Henley, Tom Hoge, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Rodgers, Xander Schauffele, Adam Schenk, Jordan Spieth, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Matt Wallace, and Cameron Young). In 2021, the field had the top 30 included because of Covid, and guess who won? Of course, the non-winner Harris English.

Golf’s big problem right now:

Before we talk about The Sentry, we have to talk about the elephant in the room, LIV golf, and what is happening. The frank answer? Not many people know what is happening. Yes, the PGA Tour is a bit of a mess for several reasons, but how many people take LIV golf seriously? LIV says they are trying to make a better tomorrow for golf, but that’s not the case, it’s all about how much money star players are making. We are all left to wonder how much some players make. My first feeling is that the only way they get any credible tour is to pay players a boatload of money. The one thing that is great about Baseball, we know what every player is making so that we all can discuss if the player is overpaid or making the right amount. But that isn’t happening with LIV Golf. For decades, players have been making money under the table in appearance fees, but at the end of the day, nobody wants to disclose how much a player makes. In a way, I can see why they don’t want to admit it. How would you feel if you knew that a player like Jon Rahm found a certain amount acceptable to hurt golf? Sure, I cannot blame anybody, including Rahm, for taking between $500 to $600 million not to play on the PGA or DP World Tour. It’s a life-changing amount of money for the average person, but let me ask you, how much different is Rahm’s life with an extra half a billion dollars? Sure, people will say that is a lot of money, and you have to take it. But when you are making $50 million a year, as Rahm is doing right now, what more luxury does the extra money get you? How about the history that Rahm will not be a part of in the future? Isn’t being in golf’s history books worth more than any money, so LIV will pay you not to be a part of that history? Sure, many will say you play LIV golf and have much more time off. If you count the Ryder Cup, Rahm played in 23 events worldwide in 2023. There are currently 12 LIV events for 2024, but there will probably be 14, so if you add the majors, that’s 18 events, five less. The big difference is that Rahm chooses what events to play on the PGA Tour. Yes, I know the PGA Tour is forcing people to play in the 8 Signature events, but these are events that Rahm was going to play in any way, except maybe the AT&T Pebble. Rahm will have to play in every LIV event, no matter if he likes the event or not. LIV golf is more of a circus atmosphere, they try to market it as a different way to run tournaments. Courses are easier for good players, only 54 holes with no cuts. No pairings like players are used to; now it’s a shotgun start in which a player could begin his round on the first, fifth, or fifteen holes. The LIV tour puts a lot of emphasis on team golf. So, players are asked to play in a regular stroke play event, but at the same time, their scores go to a team event. So, which direction does a player go after, playing in a stroke play event or a team event? On top of that, there is no tradition to LIV golf. Right now, each event on the PGA Tour has a historical aspect to it. Last year, Jon Rahm won the 72nd Sentry last year, Rahm won the 65th edition of the American Express, and Rahm won the 97th edition of the Genesis Invitational. Of the 12 events on LIV golf, only five were on the 2023 LIV schedule, and there won’t be a course that has held a LIV event more than two times. So when you win an event on LIV golf, there is no traditional reward for winning. Sure, winners receive $4 million for the victory, but how many players can you name in the LIV Golf London event or the LIV Golf Singapore? Not one of their events or courses in 2024 was on the Tour in 2022. So, there is no history to make LIV golf meaningful. At the end of the day, that Tour is nothing more than a glorified exhibition.

If LIV Golf wants to be legitimate, I want to know how much money players are given to show up. If they want to make the Tour legitimate, I want to see 70 to 100 players each week in an event that has a cut. To be legitimate, I want to see a challenging course that gets the player’s attention in which par scores well. In the past two years, every event but two was won in double-digit, under-par totals. The first event they played in London in 2022 was played with the hardest winning score. Charl Schwartzel won it with a score of 7 under par. On the PGA Tour, four events finished at single-digit scores last year. There is no way to compare what happens at a LIV Golf event and a PGA or DP World Tour event. Sure, there is excitement at LIV golf events, but nothing to the level you see at a PGA Tour or a DP World Tour event.

Let’s be frank:

players like Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, and Patrick Reed have not been missed on the PGA Tour. When Cameron Smith left to play in LIV golf last year, there was a big media cry on how serious it was that Cameron Smith left. But frankly, did anyone miss Smith last year? The same is true with Jon Rahm; more words on his defection have been written; it was probably the biggest story in golf in 2023. I can guarantee that when the Masters roles are around and it is the first time we will see Rahm in a non-LIV event, people won’t even look back as missing Rahm. Even when Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship last year, I didn’t hear much talk about him not playing on the PGA or DP World Tour. Many others have come to the forefront for the PGA Tour and the DP World Golf Tours, so people aren’t missed, even some of the world’s best players. We will see when the first sponsor leaves the PGA Tour by saying they aren’t getting their money’s worth with Koepka, Smith, and Rahm not playing, and then maybe we will have something to worry about. But right now, that isn’t happening.

The other problem is the lack of confidence that Tour players have with PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan. When sponsors like Wells Fargo not because they don’t like the product but because they don’t want to make up for the higher purse and give up their sponsorship, sorry, Jay, you are now skating on thin ice. We know the old saying that money is ruining sports and life. But we are seeing it more and more in sports. All college football players made for years was the cost of their education. Those days are long gone as players leave teams through the portal system to attend other colleges that make them a better deal. Reports have Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders making $4.5 million through social media companies. As I watch the Sugar Bowl, I am reminded that Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. turned down going to the NFL last year because he is making more, reportedly $1.2 million through agreements with Beats by Dre, Simple Seattle, and Panini America than going to the NFL. How about Baseball and the Los Angeles Dodgers paying an injured Shohei Ohtani $700 million and Yoshinobu Yamomoto $325 million to play for the Dodgers. So the point is money has drastically changed the sports world, and money is changing the PGA Tour. The problem for Jay Monahan is that despite the Tour having a lucrative TV contract and a lot of money, they tried to stare down Saudi money, who have much deeper pockets than the PGA Tour. The Saudis have spent $2 billion on LIV golf and Greg Norman’s dream, so, at the end of the day, they made very little back. Like 2024, LIV Golf will make very little money on their future investments, but that doesn’t bother them. So Monahan has no choice but to try to get along with the Saudis and LIV golf. The good news is that many players have stepped up and said no to LIV golf. Last May, when he was an amateur and attending Texas Tech, Ludvig Aberg was offered two and a half million to play LIV golf and said no. After the Ryder Cup, LIV Golf offered him a figure between $10 to $20 million to play, and he said no. Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, and Cameron Young have been given offers and said no. Supposedly, it’s been rumored that Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth have been offered $100 million and turned down LIV Golf. A few weeks ago, I saw in several reliable places that Will Zalatoris was offered $130 million and said no. In the last six months, I have heard that both Hideki Matsuyama and Rory McIlroy said no to $400 million, while Greg Norman said they would give an open check over $700 million to Tiger, who was not interested. The point is that until the Saudis get tired of spending hundreds of millions, they will still go after a piece of the golfing landscape. Unfortunately, they have the money that will turn heads, so how can we be upset over Jon Rahm’s good fortune to get paid half a billion dollars to take his game to LIV Golf. We have to hope it doesn’t change what the PGA Tour or DP World Tour is about.

So for the next seven months, there will be three events, The Sentry, American Express, and Genesis, that won’t have a defending champion, but again, those that left the PGA Tour haven’t been missed.

Off to Maui:

Still, one of the best perks on the PGA Tour for playing well the previous year is starting the year off in Maui. For the average person, they would kill just to get to Hawaii. The winners in 2023 or those in the top 50 will get to go to Hawaii and a week at a Ritz Carlton on one of the prettiest beaches in the world. Food couldn’t be any better; the scenery is the best, and the Kapalua beaches are the best for those who like water sports, from surfing to snorkeling. Yes, this is arduous work, and to think, there is no hustle or bustle this week, play lousy, finish last, and you’ll still make $50,000 grand. But if you play well and win, it’s a $2.7 million payday. What a life.

Something new for the year:

Now, for those looking for Pick Your Pro 2024, we aren’t going to have one like in past years. What we are doing is something better: we are producing a book called GolfStats Guide to the 2024 PGA Tour season.

The book will preview every event from the Sentry through the Tour Championship, giving important information in making picks. The book will look at the top 80 players on Tour and give you charts you have never seen before. Here is a link to hint at what kind of content the book will have.

We did this book between 2008 and 2011, and it was very successful, and people loved it. Those who have a one-year subscription to GolfStats or those with monthly accounts who have been in good standing for the last eight months will get this book for free.

The bad news is that the landscape for doing this book is totally different than when I did the book 15 years ago. The changes in signature events, LIV golf, and the schedule have put me behind. Another thing I realized is how different the Tour and players have been since 2008. I can’t produce a book in December that has picks for events three to six months from now. Back in 2008, I could predict who would play in the Memorial six months before; now, with it being a signature event, we can’t predict who will play. So the solution we have come up with is a book that should be finished in a week with all 80 players and the first 15 events going through the Players Championship. We will update the book just before the Players for the rest of the events in 2024 and will update players who we don’t know how many events they play in, and we will be able to edit the players. Jason and I feel that you will find this a valuable addition to your membership of GolfStats.

For a sneak peak at what the Tournament page looks like hit this link

Or you can access the Sentry Tournament page by hitting this link

For a sneak peak at the player guides, you can click the two links to Patrick Cantlay or Ludvig Aberg

Course information:

The Plantation course was designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and opened in May of 1991. Between 1992 and 1997, the course was the venue of the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Open, with the Mercedes Championships moving to the Plantation course in 1999. The average green size at Kapalua is 8,700 square feet, meaning it has some of the largest greens on Tour. This will place a premium on putting, especially on long putts. The course has 95 bunkers and no water hazards, with vast fairways that a 747 can land on. The event has been played on this course since 1999, and looking at the champions, there are as many short hitters in their winners’ roles as long hitters. Mother nature makes the course difficult; without an abundance of trees, the course is entirely open to the elements. Along with the Maui sunshine, winds affect the course daily, sometimes as a gentle breeze, but on most days, wimping from off the Ocean up the hillside, winds of 15 mph are the norm. When the winds go higher, sometimes in the 40 mph range, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is challenging to maneuver around.

Last year, the course scored 68.92 (remember it’s a par 73), so the course played to an average score of just over 3 under par, making it the easiest of the 58 courses on the PGA Tour in 2023.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Plantation Course at Kapalua:

This is based on the most important stats for the Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions and using data from all the players in the field with stats from the 2023 season.
It is essential to know that this course looks tough on TV, but it’s one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour. Last year, the field’s scoring average was 68.92, so with par being 73, the average score was just over 3 under par, making it the easiest of the 58 courses on the PGA Tour in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sentry for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 68.22, it was the easiest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 69.32, it was the easiest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 72.23, it was 20th hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 70.92, it was 44th hardest of 49 courses that year
The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost 4 shots between 2022 and 2020?

First, the Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses to hold a PGA Tour event.

The course was carved out of the side of a mountain, so the elements play an essential role. The architects Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore put a lot of thought into routing the holes and built the course with trade winds in mind. The trade wind blows toward the ocean, meaning the wind goes in the same direction as the slope and the grain. The ball then rolls for miles, or it seems that way. Each year the Plantation course appears to have its share of 400-yard drives. With Kona winds, it blows up the hill and into the grain, which reduces the role. Last year, the course had six drives of 400 yards or longer. In 2021 the course had 8 drives of 400 yards and longer. In 2000, there were only five; the difference in 2000 was that the week had Kona winds while the other years had trade winds. Last year the Plantation course had 89 drives between 400 and the longest drive of the year, 459 yards by Luke List in the 3rd round on the 7th hole.
So the course is at the mercy of the weather conditions, mainly the degree of wind and the direction.
The Plantation Course is a resort course not geared to be super tough. The course is the only par 73 and that is because the course has four par 5s, but only three par 3s. But the big reason for the course being accessible is the fairways; there is no way you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 777 can land on them.
Last year the course ranked 40th out of 58 courses in Driving Accuracy at 62.75% of drives in the fairway.
Here is the Driving Accuracy of the Sentry for the last few years:
*2022 – Driving Accuracy was 73.82%, ranking 49th out of the 50 courses for the year
*2021 – Driving Accuracy was 79.01%, ranking 51st out of the 51 courses for the year
*2020 – Driving Accuracy was 80.93%, ranking 41st out of the 41 courses for the year
*2019 – Driving Accuracy was 76.62%, ranking 48th out of the 49 courses for the year

One thing about the course is that since the fairways are firm and many of them go downhill, you may think the average drive would be enormous. But it isn’t. Last year the average drive for every drive was 307.3 yards and ranked 41st out of 58 courses. In 2022, the average drive was 304.3 yards, making it the 34th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
Many say that the course is for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage; last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, finished 7th on the PGA Tour in driving distance for 2023 and 2nd at Kapalua with a 322.9 average. Last year, Collin Morikawa was runner-up but finished 26th (out of 38 players) at Kapalua, averaging 304.2 yards.
Here is a look at the last four champions of the Sentry and how they did in driving distance:
*2022 – Cameron Smith ranked 4th, average drive 313.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 75.0% of the fairways.
*2021 – *Harris English ranked 25th, average drive 277.1 yards. Was T-14th in Driving Accuracy hitting 83.3% of the fairways.
*2020 – Justin Thomas ranked 11th, average drive 271.5 yards. Was T-19th in Driving Accuracy hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
*2019 – Xander Schauffele ranked 14th, average drive 280.4 yards. Was T-15th in Driving Accuracy hitting 78.3% of the fairways.
*English was the second shortest winner in the 24-year history (the shortest was Jim Fury, 44.4 in 2001).

In other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions in the last few years:
*Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016.
*Even better yet, Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, and Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history.
*Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance.
So the myth that this course is for bombers is incorrect, except for one little fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel, the Plantation course tends to get hit by high winds. When that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north (Kona), it helps short hitters. The same thing happens when it’s dry, firm, and fast; it allows the short hitters. For this week, a strange thing could happen. Winds will come out of the northeast and are predicted to be very low, with the average being only between 9 and 12 mph. There has been very little rain over the last week, and with no rain this week, the course will be dry, firm, and very fast, so look for this to be a massive help for shorter hitters.

After play in 2019, the Plantation Course was closed and had an intensive, $11 million renovation project. The course was re-grassed and reshaped to make it play firmer and faster, which it did, making it a bit harder. They also redid the greens taking out the slope and undulations, which made the course easier.

The one undisputed fact that many still don’t understand about the winners at Kapalua that will probably continue, in most cases, is that the best putter has been the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind: of the Kapalua winners since 1999, the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round was 4th until 2020.
Justin Thomas ranked T-11th, which is the highest of any winner. Still, if you looked at the playoff, Patrick Reed was in it and ranked 1st in putts per round.
In 2021, Harris English ranked T-5th in putts per round, so you can see putting is the key to winning at Kapalua, if your a poor putter, you have just about no chance of winning.
2021 was won by Cameron Smith, who is considered one of the best putters in the game. For the week, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and, from 4 to 8 feet, was ranked 2nd, making 16 of 18 putts.
Last year Jon Rahm was 1st in putts per round, 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. In putts from 10 to 15 feet, he was 2nd, making 5 of 8 tries. In putts from 15 to 20 feet, he was 5th, making 3 of 10 attempts. In putts from 20 to 25 feet, he was 3rd, making 2 of 5 putts, and from inside ten feet, he ranked 15th, completing 61 of 68 tries. More importantly, he was 1st in making 31 one-putts, and in 3 putts, he only had one for the week.

Now, Thomas didn’t put that great in his win in 2020. In putts inside 10 feet, he ranked 29th (out of 34 players in the field), making 66 of 78 putts. But what Thomas did right was hitting greens. He ranked 3rd, hitting 56 of 72. They all ranked in the top ten of the last seven winners, so hitting greens is essential.

Another critical item inputting is the lack of three-putts:
*Last year Jon Rahm only three-putted once.
*In 2022 Cameron Smith had only one three-putt
*In 2021 Harris English didn’t have a single three-putt
*In 2020 Justin Thomas had one three-putt over the 72 holes, which ranked T-2nd
*In 2019 Xander Schauffele had 1 in the first round
*In 2018 Dustin Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt
*In 2017 Justin Thomas had just 2 three-putts

Also, all of the winners were good at scrambling except for the last four champions:

*In 2023 Jon Rahm ranked T-13th in scrambling:
*In 2022 Cameron Smith ranked T-17th in scrambling
*In 2021 Harris English ranked T-17th in scrambling
*In 2020 Kevin Thomas ranked 32nd as he only got it up and down in 7 of the 16 greens missed
*In 2019 Xander Schauffele was 8th
*In 2018 Dustin Johnson was 6th
*In 2017 Justin Thomas was 12th in scrambling
*In 2016 Jordan Spieth was 3rd
*In 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd
*The same goes for 2014 winner Zach Johnson.

One thing to remember about Thomas’s victory in 2020, it wasn’t pleasant. He made bogeys on 16 and 18 to force the playoff but made up when he went birdie, par, birdie in the playoff. The year before Xander Schauffele’s victory was historic as he shot 62, the lowest round shot by a champion at Kapalua. But how about Jon Rahm’s win last year? After entering the final round seven shots back, Rahm equaled the largest come-from-behind victory at the Sentry. Things looked even grimmer as he bogeyed the first hole while 3rd round leader Collin Morikawa made birdie to lead by nine over Rahm. The Spaniard birdied four of the next five holes he played, and with birdies at 9, 13, and 14, he was only three back. Morikawa made his first bogey of the week at 14, and minutes later, Rahm made an 11-footer for eagle as they were tied. For Morikawa, his problems continued with bogeys at 15 and 16. When Rahm birdied 18, he won by two. Rahm one-putted six of his final seven holes.
So the key to remember about this week’s event in Maui is to look for those that putt well. Sure, if they hit it long, it’s an added plus, but putting rules this week. Also, remember the course will play firm and fast, so look for those short hitters.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 8,722 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall, putting stats ranked it the 8th hardest to put in 2023, as one putt is at a premium, as the course was the 8th hardest in that stat. Three putts are expected as the course ranked 38th in 3-putt avoidance last year. Last year Jon Rahm was 1st in one-putts (had 31) and T-8th in 3-putt avoidance (only had 1). In 2022 Cameron Smith was 1st in one-putts and T-13th in 3-putt avoidance.

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation, 82.03% were hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In Proximity to hole, players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year, they averaged 39 feet, 2 inches, which was 13th on the course in 2023. As for winner Rahm, he averaged 40 feet, 2 inches and ranked 23rd So you have to not only get on the green, but Proximity to hole is important

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field was the easiest in birdie average and easiest in Par Breakers last year. Rahm made 28 birdies, the 2nd best of anyone in the field.

*Scrambling: With big greens, it’s nearly impossible to miss them; still, if you do miss a green, you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 26th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because you better get it up and down for those that win. Last year, Rahm missed 11 greens and got it up and down 7 times (63.64%) to rank T-13th, again showing how this stat has been significant in past years.

58 of the 59 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the stats for the Sentry

Playing in events on the Ocean:

• This is a stat that more and more folks should be interested in. In the last few years, 15 of the 50 events played are on the Pacific, Atlantic, or Caribbean seas. Here is a look at some of the players who have done well on courses by water since the start of 2020.
• Viktor Hovland could be the King in Ocean events. Three of his PGA Tour wins have come by the sea at Mayakoba and Puerto Rico. He also has won two Hero World Challenges in Bermuda. In 25 starts since 2020 by the sea, he has 9 top-ten finishes.
• Justin Thomas has played in 25 ocean events. He won the 2021 Players and has 10 top-ten finishes.
• Others who have played well in Ocean events include Collin Morikawa, Xander Scheuffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Jordan Spieth, who in his career won five events by the Ocean at the 2014 Hero World Challenge, 2016 Sentry TofC, 2017 AT&T Pebble, 2017 British Open and 2022 Heritage.

DraftKings tips

Historical totals

Of the 59 in the field, 41 have played at least once in the Sentry.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at Sentry since 2010:

• Jordan Spieth is 113 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 81 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 94 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Xander Schauffele is 87 under in 21 rounds, playing 6 years
• Collin Morikawa is 79 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Tony Finau is 65 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jason Day is 73 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Sungjae Im is 64 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Rickie Fowler is 52 under in 15 rounds, playing 4 years
• Harris English is 51 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Chris Kirk is 46 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Brian Harman is 45 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Russell Henley is 43 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Max Homa is 43 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Viktor Hovland is 42 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Scottie Scheffler is 38 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Seamus Power is 35 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Brendon Todd is 31 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Keegan Bradley is 30 under in 15 rounds, playing 4 years
• Sam Burns is 30 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Si Woo Kim is 28 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Mackenzie Hughes is 26 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Lucas Glover is 24 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Tom Hoge is 23 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Cam Davis is 23 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• J.T. Poston is 23 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Tom Kim is 22 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Matt Fitzpatrick is 21 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Luke List is 20 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Corey Conners is 19 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Cameron Young is 19 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Nick Taylor is 19 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Sepp Straka is 16 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Erik Van Rooyen is 16 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Justin Rose is 13 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 12 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Andrew Putnam is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Sahith Theegala is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Adam Svensson is 5 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years
• Camilo Villegas is 5 under in 4 rounds, playing 2 years
• Adam Hadwin is 2 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Sungjae Im is -64 under, playing 3 years (-21.3)
• Collin Morikawa is -79 under, playing 4 years (-19.8)
• Scottie Scheffler is -38 under, playing 2 years (-19.0)
• Jordan Spieth is -113 under, playing 6 years (-18.8)
• Seamus Power is -35 under, playing 2 years (-17.5)
• Harris English is -51 under, playing 3 years (-17.0)
• Tony Finau is -65 under, playing 4 years (-16.3)
• Patrick Cantlay is -81 under, playing 5 years (-16.2)
• Hideki Matsuyama is -94 under, playing 6 years (-15.7)
• Sam Burns is -30 under, playing 2 years (-15.0)
• Brian Harman is -45 under, playing 3 years (-15.0)
• Jason Day is -73 under, playing 5 years (-14.6)
• Xander Schauffele is -87 under, playing 6 years (-14.5)
• Max Homa is -43 under, playing 3 years (-14.3)
• Viktor Hovland is -42 under, playing 3 years (-14.0)
• Rickie Fowler is -52 under, playing 4 years (-13.0)
• Lucas Glover is -24 under, playing 2 years (-12.0)
• Chris Kirk is -46 under, playing 4 years (-11.5)
• J.T. Poston is -23 under, playing 2 years (-11.5)
• Russell Henley is -43 under, playing 4 years (-10.8)
• Brendon Todd is -31 under, playing 3 years (-10.3)
• Corey Conners is -19 under, playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Nick Taylor is -19 under, playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Si Woo Kim is -28 under, playing 3 years (-9.3)
• Mackenzie Hughes is -26 under, playing 3 years (-8.7)
• Keegan Bradley is -30 under, playing 4 years (-7.5)
• Camilo Villegas is -5 under, playing 2 years (-2.5)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

Most DraftKings points earned

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 Hero Challenge (We don’t include team events), a total of 54 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Here is a look at all 59 players in the field:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

More DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,000
• Viktor Hovland – $10,500
• Xander Schauffele – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,900
• Max Homa – $9,700
• Wyndham Clark – $9,600
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,500
• Brian Harman – $9,300
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,200
• Collin Morikawa – $9,100
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,000

A happy New Year to you and happy picking in DraftKings for the year.

In looking at the prices for The Sentry, the first one is Scottie Scheffler at $11,000. That makes sense since his DraftKings average in 2023 was more points than anyone else. Also, like that he won last month at the Hero, and despite not contending in his two Sentry starts, the course is perfect for his game.   His putting will determine how well he does, and I don’t think these greens favor Scottie, so it’s best to skip on him this week.   Viktor Hovland, at $10,500, is a tough guy to say no to. He has not played great in three previous Sentry’s, plus he didn’t play great in the Bahamas. I saw a video of him clearing snow back home in Norway over the holidays; that could be why he was rusty this week in Maui. Xander Schauffele at $10,000 is another problem for me. Yes, he has won and been runner-up at the Sentry, but that happened in 2019 and 2020. Since then, I was T-5th at the Sentry in 2021, 13th in 2022, and withdrew last year. He was 4th at the Hero and T-38th at the Zozo Championship, his only golf since the Ryder Cup. So he is a pass for me. Patrick Cantlay at $9,900 is another tough choice. Yes, he finished 4th twice in 2020 & ’22 but hasn’t played well in the other two starts. He hasn’t played competitively since the Ryder Cup and doesn’t play well on this course. Yes, he averages almost 85 DraftKings points, but I think rust will be a problem for him. Max Homa at $9,700 is my primary choice; he was T-3rd at Kapalua last year and won in December in South Africa. The firmness of the fairways due to the lack of rain will be perfect for him. Wyndham Clark at $9,600 is a hard choice. He is playing in his first Sentry, and historically, we know first-timers have struggled more than they have done well. He is an average putter and average in hitting greens so that I will pass on Clark. Matt Fitzpatrick, at $9,500, is one of those players who I think will have a bit of an average due to the great weather. He doesn’t usually hit it far, but he can gain some yardage with dry fairways. Fitzpatrick is a great putter, so that will carry him over this week despite not being a great iron player. Same with Brian Harman at $9,300. He doesn’t hit it long but does putt exceptionally well, he was 3rd at the Sentry in 2018, a year the course was dry and he got added length off the tee. So, I think he will do well this week. Tyrrell Hatton, at $9,200, is another rookie in this event. The good news about him is that he plays well on windy courses, but I don’t think this will be one of those weeks. Collin Morikawa at $9,100 is a great choice; he should have won it last year and didn’t. He hasn’t been worse than 7th in four Sentry starts. He can make a good share of DraftKings points; if Collin putts half-decent, he will win. Tommy Fleetwood, at $9,000, is another rookie who doesn’t hit the greens necessary to win but is a perfect putter, which will help him. I also think the firmness of the fairways will help him, but he isn’t one of my choices.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Tom Kim, at $8,900, is one of those guys we have forgotten in the last year. He is playing this week with a new caddie, his old one was stolen away by Ludvig Aberg. But he showed a lot in his play last year and should do the same this week. Jordan Spieth at $8,800 is also a good buy; the players in the $8,300 to $8,900 range are all winners and players to pick this week. As for Spieth, he played his seventh Sentry and was runner-up in 2014, won in 2016, and T-3rd in 2017. Look for him to play better this week. What can we say about Ludvig Aberg, who, at $8,700, is a steal? His game has been great ever turning pro, and he looks like the best. He is so dedicated to playing well; he was home in Sweden for the holidays and played golf in the snow; check out the video.

Unique conditions in Eslöv, Sweden.

Golfing in the snow with Ludvig Åberg ❄️ pic.twitter.com/LznzNDousi

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 28, 2023

So yes, Aberg is one of my picks this week. Rickie Fowler, at $8,600, is another excellent pick. He has finished in the top six in all four Sentry starts. Jason Day at $8,500 is another stellar pick, he has said lately how he wants to be number one in the world so he must know something about his game. As for his record at the Sentry, he was T-3rd in 2015 and has never been higher than 13th in five Sentry starts—very mixed results with Tony Finau at $8,400. Yes, the course should be perfect for him, but in four previous starts, his best finish was T-7th last year. Frankly, with many other good players, it is best to pass on Finau. Sepp Straka, at $7,800, is a thought and plays well in wind and near oceans. An example of that was 2nd in the Bahamas and T-2nd at the British Open. Russell Henley, at $7,700, has the experience; in four starts, the best was T-3rd in 2015. If he can do that, he can do it again this week.

*So, are there any “Bargains” out there?

Of the field of 59, 18 of the players have never played in Rhe Sentry. So that will mean it will be hard to dig up a bargain or two this week when you consider that ten of the 14 are priced below $7,500. I like Eric Cole at $7,400; he is an excellent putter who could strike at any time. He is not the longest of drivers, so that firm conditions will benefit him. He has never played this event but will look like a regular to Kapalua this week. Harris English at $7,300 is a good bargain, considering he won this event in 2021 and should stand out again this week. Watch Cam Davis at $7,100 do well this week. The course suits his game, the only problem is that he isn’t a good putter, so he will have to be very sharp with his tee-to-green game. Could Adam Schenk, at $6,900, shock us all? Have a great week. Putting is good enough for him to win. he has the game to surprise us, but I have to wonder if winning is in his vocabulary right now.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sentry :

The key stat for the winner:

• The Plantation Course is not a driving course. A good driver has no advantage here, so players must rear back and hit it as far as possible. The fairways are big enough to land a 747 on them, and for those that miss the fairway, the rough terrain is of no worries, so this is one of the rare events that driving means nothing. 2013 was a perfect example. Winner Dustin Johnson missed the most fairways of anyone in the field (37 of the 60 attempts), but on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson’s average drive of 279.5 yards was the second longest. 2017 winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in driving accuracy, hitting 44 of 60 fairways, while he was 3rd in driving distance for the week at 301.6 yards per drive. Thomas in 2020 was T-19th, hitting 47 of 60 fairways, but was 3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 and ranking 3rd. 2021’s winner, Harris English, was T-14th, hitting 50 of 60 fairways, but was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 62 of the 72.  2022 winner Cameron Smith was T-14th, hitting 45 of 60 fairways, but was T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 62 of 72. Last year, Jon Rahm won; he was T35th, hitting 31 of 60 fairways, but was T-7th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 61 of 72
• The motto in this is that hitting it long does not have that much of an advantage.
• Again, in some cases, stats are misleading because even though you can hit it long, the course is one where everyone hits all the greens, so everyone is in the same boat.
• So, along with players hitting it as far as they can, look for players hitting lots of greens. Since they are so large, averaging 8,700 square feet, you can see that players miss only three greens per round. So, hitting lots of greens is a misnomer. The average proximity to the hole in 2023 was 39 feet 2 inches, which made the pins the hardest to get close, so you can see that lag putting is crucial.
• So, two key stats stand out as necessary; the first approach is putt performance, which gauges who lags putts the closet to the hole. In 2023, those playing at Kapalua averaged getting their first putt within 2 feet, 4 inches away. The other key stat is a birdie or better conversion per greens hit; Kapalua was 57th as players birdied 38.63% of the greens they hit, so making birdies is easy and necessary.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Still, the king of stats is putting. With big greens, putting is essential.
• Look at last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. He was T-7th in hitting greens, averaging 40 feet, 2 inches from the hole that ranked 23rd. But he won the tournament with his putter as he was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting.
• Last but not least, we need to assess the true changes made to the course. These changes are often just cosmetic, but in the case of these changes after the 2019 tournament, we won’t see them on TV, but the players have experienced them. The players talked about how much you had to be careful driving the ball. Now, the ball can roll into danger because there is more roll in the fairway. What could be misleading this year is the winds; they will be low, and with the changes to the course, many will say it will be interesting to see if more of the shorter hitters, the Patrick Cantlay’s, the Adam Svensson’s, the Brian Harman’s and the Russell Henley’s of the world will have a better chance and will content this week on a long course.