Sony Open in Hawaii Key Fantasy Stats

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 11th – 14th, 2023

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, HI

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,044

Purse: $8.3 million

with $1,494,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Si Woo Kim

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

******

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and data from all the players in the field with rankings from 2023 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 69.19, making it almost a shot under par and the 36th hardest course on Tour (22nd easiest).

Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 68.00, was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 67.97, it was the 45th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 70.51, was 9th hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 68.92, was 32nd hardest of 49 courses that year
The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost two and a half shots between 2020 and 2021?

In 2021, the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on Tour (7th easiest). The reason for such an easy scoring average the last three years was perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the biggest change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be a different story, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 11 mph each day, except for on Friday, when winds will blow between 17 and 20 mph.  The tournament days will be good, but Waialae will recieve between and inch to two inches of rain all day Monday and Tuesday morning.  There will be enough rain to make the course play soft the first couple of days.
As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds and firm, fast conditions, the scores were low. So in looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players on Thursday, but scoring will be complicated on Friday, like it was in Kapalua on Saturday with high winds. That brings in a different realm of players; those with explosive offensive skills will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but it’s still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than those in Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year, the course ranked 18th in driving accuracy as the players hit 54.56% of the fairways. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, was ok off the tee as he hit 62.50% (35 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 1st.

Here is a look at the driving average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Driving Accuracy was 61.56%, and was the 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 5th.
*2021 – Driving Accuracy was 57.64%, and was the 19th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na was not straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% (31 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Na ranked 2nd.
*2020 – Driving Accuracy was 65.53%, and was 32nd hardest of 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith was better off the tee as he hit 64.29% (36 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-41st. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Smith ranked 30th.
*2019 – Driving Accuracy was 56.27%, and was 13th hardest of 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar was great off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-4th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kuchar ranked 3rd.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the excellent weather.

Our second stat in Greens in Regulation. In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 16 of the 22 have been in the top 12, while eight of the 22 have been in the top three.
Last year, Waialae ranked 43rd out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 71.64% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Greens in Regulation was 72.61%, and was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of 72 greens (73.61%) and ranked T-36th.
*2021 – Greens in Regulation was 73.21%, and was the 48th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-29th.
*2020 – Greens in Regulation was 64.51%, and was the 14th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked T-20th.
*2019 – Greens in Regulation was 68.89%, and was the 31st hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked 1st.
Again, weather is the key; players will hit many greens if it doesn’t blow like in 2019. But when it does blow, like in 2020, greens are hard to hit, and scores go up.

Our third stat is Par Breakers. Since Waialae ranked T-41st in birdies with 1,678 and the 44th highest in Eagles with 42, the course ranked 34th in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, made 24 birdies, the best in the field, and one eagle to rank 1st in Par Breakers with a 34.72%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – 1,795 birdies were made (41st hardest) and 53 eagles (43rd) as 23.69% of the holes played under par, making it the 39th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama made 26 birdies (Best) but had no eagles as 36.11% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
*2021 – 1,725 birdies were made (46th hardest) and 60 eagles (47th) as 25.75% of the holes played under par, making it the 44th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na made 24 birdies (T-5th) and one eagle as 34.72% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers.
*2020 – 1,269 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 34 eagles (T-24th) as 17.28% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith made 21 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles as 29.17% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
*2019 – 1,643 birdies were made (39th hardest) and 56 eagles (46th) as 21.45% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar made 34 birdies (T-1st) and one eagle as 34.72% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
So we can see that the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our last stat is putting average. We picked this stat because most past winners, like the previous two winners, Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama, are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters.
Last year, Si Woo Kim ranked T-30th at the Sony in putting as he averaged 29.5 putts per round. In 2023, Kim was T-68th in putting average for the year and 163rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2022, winner Hideki Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting, averaging 27.0 putts per round. In 2022, Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2021, winner Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the identical 27.0 putts per round for Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2020, winner Cameron Smith was T-4th, averaging 27.75 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Smith was T-32nd in putting average and 46th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2019, winner Matt Kuchar was T-13th. He averaged 28.00 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Kuchar was T-51st in putting average, and T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting.
So what does this show? You don’t have to be a wizard on the greens to win. The greens of Waialae are flat, with no undulations, and are perfect for rolling a putt. This tends to help poor putters do well, so players who are great ball strikers, like a lot of the champions, are the makeup of most of the winners. Some of golf’s worst putters have found glory at Waialae, so look for the combination of great ball striking and weak putting to prevail this week.
So look for players who hit it straight because you want to avoid the rough, along with players who hit a lot of greens to do well this week.

One thing that will be hard to judge is who is in the field. Of the 28 rookies playing the PGA Tour this year, 13 are teeing up this week. Also, of the ten DP World Tour players who got their cards by being in the top ten of the Race to Dubai, five are playing this week in Hawaii. On top of that, 24 players have never played in this event. So those are 42 players who will be hard to judge.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player who will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who is the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 4th easiest in greens hit during 2021.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

102 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Speak Your Mind

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.