BlogSony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Since 1999 when it was slotted behind the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Sony got an added boost in that most of those at the Sentry made the short flight to Honolulu to play this event.  Over the years, it’s gone up and down, but most of the time, being behind the Sentry has helped the field for Sony.

Of the 59 players that played last week in Kapalua, 37 have made it to the Sony.

The good news was that not only was it an elevated event, but there was double the field that used to attend the Sentry.  Because of that, a lot more players tagged along and are in the field this week:

• Winner at Sentry – Chris Kirk
• 2nd at Sentry – Sahith Theegala
• 4th at Sentry – Byeong Hun An
• T-5th at Sentry – Brian Harman
• T-5th at Sentry – J.T. Poston
• T-14th at Sentry – Eric Cole
• T-14th at Sentry – Patrick Rodgers
• T-14th at Sentry – Akshay Bhatia
• T-14th at Sentry – Harris English
• T-14th at Sentry – Tyrrell Hatton
• T-14th at Sentry – Matt Fitzpatrick
• T-22nd at Sentry – Luke List
• T-22nd at Sentry – Erik Van Rooyen
• T-25th at Sentry – Si Woo Kim
• T-25th at Sentry – Nico Echavarria
• T-29th at Sentry – Kurt Kitayama
• T-29th at Sentry – Lucas Glover
• T-33rd at Sentry – Adam Svensson
• T-33rd at Sentry – Brendon Todd
• T-33rd at Sentry – Corey Conners
• T-38th at Sentry – Tom Hoge
• T-40th at Sentry – Andrew Putnam
• T-40th at Sentry – Matt Wallace
• T-40th at Sentry – Justin Rose
• T-43rd at Sentry – Emiliano Grillo
• T-43rd at Sentry – Denny McCarthy
• T-45th at Sentry – Keegan Bradley
• T-47th at Sentry – Ludvig Aberg
• T-47th at Sentry – Nick Hardy
• T-50th at Sentry – Camilo Villegas
• T-50th at Sentry – Seamus Power
• T-52nd at Sentry – Russell Henley
• T-52nd at Sentry – Nick Taylor
• T-52nd at Sentry – Davis Riley
• T-52nd at Sentry – Cam Davis
• 58th at Sentry – Hideki Matsuyama
• 59th at Sentry – Vincent Norrman

Since the Sentry and Sony are back to back-, only Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) have won both events in the same year.  The good news is last week’s winner, Chris Kirk is in the field at the Sony, so there is a chance for a back-to-back Hawaii Slam, the first since 2022 with Cameron Smith.

Something new for the year:

Now, for those looking for Pick Your Pro 2024, we aren’t going to have one like in past years. What we are doing is something better: we are producing a book called GolfStats Guide to the 2024 PGA Tour season.

The book will preview every event from the Sentry through the Tour Championship, giving important information in making picks. The book will look at the top 80 players on Tour and give you charts you have never seen before. Here is a link to hint at what kind of content the book will have.

We did this book between 2008 and 2011, and it was very successful, and people loved it. Those who have a one-year subscription to GolfStats or those with monthly accounts who have been in good standing for the last eight months will get this book for free.

The bad news is that the landscape for doing this book is totally different than when I did the book 15 years ago. The changes in signature events, LIV golf, and the schedule have put me behind. Another thing I realized is how different the Tour and players have been since 2008. I can’t produce a book in December that has picks for events three to six months from now. Back in 2008, I could predict who would play in the Memorial six months before; now, with it being a signature event, we can’t predict who will play. So the solution we have come up with is a book that should be finished in a week with all 80 players and the first 12 events going through the Players Championship. We will update the book just before the Players for the rest of the events in 2024 and will update players who we don’t know how many events they play in, and we will be able to edit the players. Jason and I feel that you will find this a valuable addition to your membership of GolfStats.

The book is now finished and going out to our qualified subscribers in the next couple of days.

So there are two ways to get our Fantasy Golf Guide: either get a one-year subscription to GolfStats, or you can buy the book for $35.   We feel this is a HUGE value to our members and think you will too.

Here is a preview of this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii for our Fantasy golf book

Here is a link to the Sony Open defending champion Si Woo Kim

Waialae Course information:

The course was designed by Seth Raynor and Charles Banks and opened in 1925. It has gone through a series of changes, first by Bob Baldock in 1966, then Arthur Jack Snyder in 1969, then Robert Nelson and Rodney Wright in 1984, then by Arnold Palmer & Ed Seay in 1991, and finally by Desmond Muirhead in 1992.  To make things even tougher, Waialae hired Rick Smith in the late ’90s to develop some more renovations for the future.  Smith came in to return the course to the original design that Seth Raynor first produced.

One of the significant changes made, which didn’t affect the course but did affect the tournament, came in 1999.  That’s when championship and PGA Tour officials moved up the tees on the 1st and 13th holes and changed them from par 5s to 4s. It didn’t make the course easier or tougher. It was a perception that the course was harder with scores going up, even though that wasn’t the case.

The average green size at Waialae is 7,500 square feet, and the course has 79 bunkers.  Nine of the holes have water on them, but for the touring pros, only three of those holes are affected.  For tournament week, the nines are reversed so that the par3 8th hole, which runs along the Pacific, becomes the 17th and is shown on television. One rarity that you don’t see on many courses is that four of the closing five holes (14, 15, 16 & 18) are sharp dogleg left, so those that hook the ball have an advantage.

One other thing about Waialae: It’s been the only home of the Sony Open since 1965.  The only other courses with a better track record on the PGA Tour are Augusta National, which has been the home of the Masters since 1934, Pebble Beach, which has been the home of the AT&T since 1947, and Colonial, which has been the home of the Charles Schwab Challenge since 1948.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Waialae:

This is based on the most important stats for Waialae, data from last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii, and data from all the players in the field with rankings from 2023 stats.
The field’s scoring average at Waialae last year was 69.19, making it almost a shot under par and the 36th hardest course on Tour (22nd easiest).

Here is a look at the scoring average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 68.00, was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 67.97, it was the 45th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 70.51, was 9th hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 68.92, was 32nd hardest of 49 courses that year
The big question many will wonder is, why was there a difference of almost two and a half shots between 2020 and 2021?

In 2021, the scoring average was 67.97, making it play just over two shots under par and the 45th hardest course on Tour (7th easiest). The reason for such an easy scoring average the last three years was perfect weather conditions with limited winds. It was a significant difference over 2020 when the field’s scoring average at Waialae was 70.26, making it play a quarter shot over par and was the T-9th hardest course on Tour. It was the first time the average was over par since it played to a 70.06 average in 2010 and the hardest it had played since 2007 when it played to a 70.27 average. The course made several changes before the 1999 event, with the biggest change being part of the course going from a par of 72 to 70. With the change, the course played over par in every tournament but two (2004 & ’03) between 1999 and 2010. Since then, the course has played under par every year until 2020. The reason for this is wind; in 2020, they had gusts up to 40 mph on Thursday and Friday and 15 to 25 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This year will be a different story, with warm skies but light winds between 6 to 11 mph each day, except for on Friday, when winds will blow between 17 and 20 mph.  The tournament days will be good, but Waialae will recieve between and inch to two inches of rain all day Monday and Tuesday morning.  There will be enough rain to make the course play soft the first couple of days.
As we saw at Kapalua last week, weather plays an important factor in scoring, and with light winds and firm, fast conditions, the scores were low. So in looking at the forecast, it seems perfect for the players on Thursday, but scoring will be complicated on Friday, like it was in Kapalua on Saturday with high winds. That brings in a different realm of players; those with explosive offensive skills will go low at Waialae. Yes, it’s a gem of a course, but it’s still a layup for the best players in the world with the lack of wind. Even with just two par fives, there is not only a chance for a sub-60 round, but you never know someone could get hot and shoot 58.

In looking at the stats for Waialae over the years, driving accuracy hits you. The fairways are different than those in Kapalua, which are wide and welcoming. At Waialae, the fairways are tight, making for a tough go. Last year, the course ranked 18th in driving accuracy as the players hit 54.56% of the fairways. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, was ok off the tee as he hit 62.50% (35 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 1st.

Here is a look at the driving average of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Driving Accuracy was 61.56%, and was the 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama was ok off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-13th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Matsuyama ranked 5th.
*2021 – Driving Accuracy was 57.64%, and was the 19th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na was not straight off the tee as he hit 55.46% (31 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-50th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Na ranked 2nd.
*2020 – Driving Accuracy was 65.53%, and was 32nd hardest of 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith was better off the tee as he hit 64.29% (36 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-41st. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Smith ranked 30th.
*2019 – Driving Accuracy was 56.27%, and was 13th hardest of 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar was great off the tee as he hit 71.43% (40 of 54) of the fairways and ranked T-4th. In Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, Kuchar ranked 3rd.
So our first stat is Strokes gained Tee-to-Green since even though accuracy hasn’t been a key the last couple of years, you may see that change this year with the excellent weather.

Our second stat in Greens in Regulation. In looking at the winners at Waialae, greens hit seem to be something all the winners have in common. Since 2002, 16 of the 22 have been in the top 12, while eight of the 22 have been in the top three.
Last year, Waialae ranked 43rd out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 71.64% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked T-2nd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – Greens in Regulation was 72.61%, and was the 41st hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of 72 greens (73.61%) and ranked T-36th.
*2021 – Greens in Regulation was 73.21%, and was the 48th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-29th.
*2020 – Greens in Regulation was 64.51%, and was the 14th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked T-20th.
*2019 – Greens in Regulation was 68.89%, and was the 31st hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar hit 60 of 72 greens (83.33%) and ranked 1st.
Again, weather is the key; players will hit many greens if it doesn’t blow like in 2019. But when it does blow, like in 2020, greens are hard to hit, and scores go up.

Our third stat is Par Breakers. Since Waialae ranked T-41st in birdies with 1,678 and the 44th highest in Eagles with 42, the course ranked 34th in Par Breakers. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, made 24 birdies, the best in the field, and one eagle to rank 1st in Par Breakers with a 34.72%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Sony Open in Hawaii for the last few years:
*2022 – 1,795 birdies were made (41st hardest) and 53 eagles (43rd) as 23.69% of the holes played under par, making it the 39th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Hideki Matsuyama made 26 birdies (Best) but had no eagles as 36.11% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
*2021 – 1,725 birdies were made (46th hardest) and 60 eagles (47th) as 25.75% of the holes played under par, making it the 44th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Kevin Na made 24 birdies (T-5th) and one eagle as 34.72% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers.
*2020 – 1,269 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 34 eagles (T-24th) as 17.28% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Cameron Smith made 21 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles as 29.17% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
*2019 – 1,643 birdies were made (39th hardest) and 56 eagles (46th) as 21.45% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Matt Kuchar made 34 birdies (T-1st) and one eagle as 34.72% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
So we can see that the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our last stat is putting average. We picked this stat because most past winners, like the previous two winners, Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama, are notoriously not very good putters. Yes, Cameron Smith won, and he is one of the best putters in golf, but you look at all the winners, and we find a lot of poor putters.
Last year, Si Woo Kim ranked T-30th at the Sony in putting as he averaged 29.5 putts per round. In 2023, Kim was T-68th in putting average for the year and 163rd in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2022, winner Hideki Matsuyama ranked 3rd in putting, averaging 27.0 putts per round. In 2022, Matsuyama was T-69th in putting average for the year and 174th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2021, winner Kevin Na was also T-3rd, averaging the identical 27.0 putts per round for Sony. In 2021 on Tour, Na was T-34th in putting average and 87th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2020, winner Cameron Smith was T-4th, averaging 27.75 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Smith was T-32nd in putting average and 46th in Strokes Gained Putting.
*In 2019, winner Matt Kuchar was T-13th. He averaged 28.00 putts per round for the Sony. On the year on Tour, Kuchar was T-51st in putting average, and T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting.
So what does this show? You don’t have to be a wizard on the greens to win. The greens of Waialae are flat, with no undulations, and are perfect for rolling a putt. This tends to help poor putters do well, so players who are great ball strikers, like a lot of the champions, are the makeup of most of the winners. Some of golf’s worst putters have found glory at Waialae, so look for the combination of great ball striking and weak putting to prevail this week.
So look for players who hit it straight because you want to avoid the rough, along with players who hit a lot of greens to do well this week.

One thing that will be hard to judge is who is in the field. Of the 28 rookies playing the PGA Tour this year, 13 are teeing up this week. Also, of the ten DP World Tour players who got their cards by being in the top ten of the Race to Dubai, five are playing this week in Hawaii. On top of that, 24 players have never played in this event. So those are 42 players who will be hard to judge.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Waialae:

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player who will do this

*Greens in Regulation: This is a stat that shows who is the most greens in regulation. Last year Waialae ranked 4th easiest in greens hit during 2021.

*ParBreakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made

*Putting average: The lowest amount of putts for the week.

102 of the 144 Players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all the player stats for the Sony Open

DraftKings tips

Historical totals

Of the 144 in the field, 116 have played at least once in the Sony Open in Hawaii.  Here are the players with the most under-par totals at Sony since 2010:

• Chris Kirk is -110 under in 44 rounds, playing 13 years
• Matt Kuchar is -110 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Webb Simpson is -99 under in 45 rounds, playing 12 years
• Russell Henley is -96 under in 38 rounds, playing 11 years
• Ryan Palmer is -94 under in 48 rounds, playing 13 years
• Stewart Cink is -93 under in 46 rounds, playing 12 years
• Harris English is -82 under in 42 rounds, playing 11 years
• Zach Johnson is -82 under in 48 rounds, playing 14 years
• Brian Harman is -75 under in 44 rounds, playing 12 years
• Chez Reavie is -67 under in 34 rounds, playing 10 years
• Si Woo Kim is -61 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Kevin Kisner is -60 under in 37 rounds, playing 11 years
• Corey Conners is -59 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is -58 under in 33 rounds, playing 10 years
• Brendon Todd is -56 under in 30 rounds, playing 8 years
• Ben Martin is -54 under in 32 rounds, playing 9 years
• Patton Kizzire is -53 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Keith Mitchell is -50 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Brandt Snedeker is -48 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Gary Woodland is -48 under in 23 rounds, playing 7 years
• Keegan Bradley is -48 under in 34 rounds, playing 11 years
• Emiliano Grillo is -44 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Zac Blair is -43 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Andrew Putnam is -42 under in 24 rounds, playing 7 years
• Peter Malnati is -39 under in 28 rounds, playing 9 years
• Justin Rose is -37 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Tom Hoge is -36 under in 23 rounds, playing 8 years
• J.T. Poston is -33 under in 20 rounds, playing 6 years
• Adam Svensson is -32 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Hayden Buckley is -32 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under-par totals averaging it per year played (2 or more starts)

• Hayden Buckley is -32 under, playing 2 years (-16.0)
• Justin Rose is -37 under, playing 3 years (-12.3)
• Corey Conners is -59 under, playing 5 years (-11.8)
• Adam Svensson is -32 under, playing 3 years (-10.7)
• Cam Davis is -21 under, playing 2 years (-10.5)
• Si Woo Kim is -61 under, playing 6 years (-10.2)
• Matt Kuchar is -110 under, playing 11 years (-10.0)
• Ben Kohles is -19 under, playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Nick Hardy is -28 under, playing 3 years (-9.3)
• K.H. Lee is -18 under, playing 2 years (-9.0)
• Russell Henley is -96 under, playing 11 years (-8.7)
• Zac Blair is -43 under, playing 5 years (-8.6)
• Chris Kirk is -110 under, playing 13 years (-8.5)
• Webb Simpson is -99 under, playing 12 years (-8.3)
• Keith Mitchell is -50 under, playing 6 years (-8.3)
• Brandt Snedeker is -48 under, playing 6 years (-8.0)
• Lanto Griffin is -24 under, playing 3 years (-8.0)
• Andrew Novak is -16 under, playing 2 years (-8.0)
• David Lipsky is -16 under, playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Greyson Sigg is -16 under, playing 2 years (-8.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Sentry (We don’t include team events), a total of 54 events. The database consists of how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least eight events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Ludvig Aberg – $10,500
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,300
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,200
• Sahith Theegala – $10,000
• Brian Harman – $9,900
• Corey Conners – $9,800
• Eric Cole – $9,700
• Russell Henley – $9,600
• Chris Kirk – $9,500
• Will Zalatoris – $9,300
• J.T. Poston – $9,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000

In the past, Sony, because of the weather conditions with lack of wind and perfect conditions, we have looked for players that produce the most offensive power, meaning lots of birdies and eagles this week. This week, that will be necessary, with excellent conditions and lack of wind, it will create a big onslaught onto Waialae. Now we know that predicting weather is very dicey in Hawaii, even the TV stations in Hawaii are vague on long-term predictions because they know that it could switch at a moment’s notice. But in all of the time I have spent in Hawaii, yes, it’s a rarity to see four straight days of hardly any wind.  On Monday and Tuesday, almost two inches of rain fell on Waialae, so the course will be soft early Thursday.  But it will dry up quickly as winds will blow between 15 to 18 mph on Thursday and Friday.  The weekend will be a lot calmer under 10 mph. Still have to consider that and make sure to pick someone with a lot of firepower.

A year ago not many people knew of Ludvig Aberg, today Aberg is our front runner at $10,500 and we have to be very careful in considering him for the top spot.  Yes, Aberg has been fabulous since turning pro last June, and all we can say is it’s been a great honeymoon.  But Ludvig showed that the honeymoon could be over 77 in the windy third round.  He did come back on Sunday to shoot 63, but we still have to worry about him on windy days.  As much of a big supporter of Aberg in the months since turning pro, with him the favorite this week, I want to sit back and see how he does.  When you are hot, you are hot, and we saw that last year.  In the wrap-around schedule, Seamus Power, Tom Kim, and Taylor Montgomery had a sensational fall, but when the West Coast swing rolled around, it was like the pumpkin struck midnight for Cinderella.  By the summer, we weren’t talking that much about the three of them.  I fear that Aberg still has a lot to show us, and since he was vulnerable last week at Kapalua, I will stand pat and see how he reacts.  So frankly, despite his great play since he turned pro, his cost is was too high to gamble on him for this week.  I hope I am wrong and he flies out of the gate and goes wire to wire, but I still want to wait and see.  I do like Tyrrell Hatton at $10,300, but before we talk about him have to talk about rookie winners of the Sony.  Going back to 1972, there have only been two players that won the Sony on their first try.  They were Bruce Lietzke in 1977 and Russell Henley in 2013.  That shows us one important element about Sony: experience means something.  It’s important to note that since Henley won:

• In 2014, Jimmy Walker won on his eighth visit to the Sony.
• In 2015 Walker won again on his ninth visit.
• In 2016 Fabian Gomez won on his fourth visit.
• In 2017 Justin Thomas won on his third visit.
• In 2018 Patton Kizzire won on his second visit.
• In 2019 Matt Kuchar won on his 14th visit.
• In 2020 Cameron Smith won on his fifth visit.
• In 2021 Kevin Na won on his 14th visit.
• In 2022 Hideki Matsuyama won on his ninth visit
• In 2023 Si Woo Kim won on his sixth visit.

So as you can see, experience means a lot.  Of the 12 players on the top of DraftKings point total, Aberg, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, and Zalatoris are all playing at the Sony for the first time.

With that said and done, I do like Tyrrell Hatton at $10,300.  He had to endure a 22-hour flight from London to Maui and was in terrible shape the first couple of days at Kapalua.  But he did shoot a second-round 62 and finished T-14th.  He hasn’t played much since the Ryder Cup, his only start was in Dubai in November and he finished T-11th.  Still, I like Hatton a lot and think he is worth the money.  The same with Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,200.  He, too, is T-14th at the Sentry, but his game has been in good shape.  He finished T-4th at the Hero World Challenge, T-27th at the DP World, and won the Alfred Dunhill Links at St. Andrews.  I feel his game is in good shape, and his great putting will be key for him.  Feel the same way about Sahith Theegala at $10,000, his putting will carry him but he has to be a bit better in hitting fairways.  The one thing you have to stop thinking is if a player does well at Kapalua, that is a good recipe for success at Waialae, that isn’t the case.  I will be very cautious with Theegala this week.  Brian Harman, at $9,900, comes into this week off of strong performances, he was T-5th at the Sentry and T-8th at the Hero.  Harman has played a lot at Waialae, this will be his 13th start and he only has one top-ten, a T-4th in 2018.  He has played well at the Sony and scored well so I like him this week.  Corey Conners at $9,800 is one of by main picks, if you look at his record at the Sony he has made the cut in all five starts, has been in the top-12 four times and was T-3rd in 2019.  In 20 rounds, he has only been over par once and shot 11 rounds of 67 or better. Of all the players in the field, I would say that Conners could be the true favorite.  Eric Cole at $9,700 will get a lot of support, he has played great of late including a T-14th at Kapalua last week including a round of 65 on Sunday.  His game has been crisp over his last six starts, and we have to like him.  Russell Henley, at $9,600, returns to the place that he won on his first professional start in 2013.  He has played well at Waialae and lost a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama in 2022.  Look for him to contend.  Chris Kirk is at $9,500 and comes into this week after winning at Kapalua.  In normal conditions, Kirk would not have much of a chance because he lacks in length, but with a firm, hard fairway, he was able to drive it long enough to help him out, and he came through.  Could he go back to back?  His record at Waialae is good: five top tens in 13 starts; he was 2nd in 2014 and 3rd last year, so look for him to get the Hawaiian slam.  Lots of question marks with Will Zalatoris at $9,300.  He is playing the Sony for the first time, and I have to wonder if he needs a few reps to get back into the swing of things.  He struggled with his game at the Hero and at Kapalua, shot an opening round 81 and a second round 79, so I will take a pass on him for this week.  J.T. Poston at $9,100 will be on a lot of people’s minds after finishing T-5th last week in Maui, but he hasn’t impressed us in his six starts at the Sony, so I say no.  Past champion Hideki Matsuyama at $9,000 is a thought, I just wonder about his health and can’t say yes to him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players who play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  Going back to the 2010 Sony on who has made the most cuts, it’s a look.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Sony starts:

• Corey Conners made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Zac Blair made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Joseph Bramlett made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Justin Rose made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 8,200.
• Adam Svensson made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Lanto Griffin made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Jhonattan Vegas made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Stewart Cink made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Webb Simpson made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Harris English made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%. His DraftKings cost is 8,300.
• Ben Martin made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Brendon Todd made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%. His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Ryan Palmer made 11 cuts in 13 starts for a 84.6%. His DraftKings cost is 6,900.
• Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Brian Harman made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Zach Johnson made 11 cuts in 14 starts for a 78.6%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.
• Aaron Baddeley made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,400.
• Joel Dahmen made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,300.
• Stephan Jaeger made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 8,100.
• Kevin Kisner made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Russell Henley made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 9,600.
• Matt Kuchar made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Patton Kizzire made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Emiliano Grillo made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,400.
• Gary Woodland made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Andrew Putnam made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Nick Taylor made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4%. His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Chez Reavie made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%. His DraftKings cost is 6,200.

*Players in the $7,500 to $8,900 range:

Byeong Hun An at $8,700 is a good choice, he not only finished 4th last week in Maui, but was T-12th at Sony a year ago.  He has been very consistent in his game since the summer and, despite his high price, is worth the cost.  Justin Rose is a very good pick at $8,200.  He hasn’t played in the Sony since 2017 when he was 2nd.  The course is perfect for Rose and one that he can go low on.  He may not win, but he can get a top ten, which is good for his price.  Alex Noren at $7,900 is a great price for him  His only finish at the Sony was T-32nd in 2020, but he finished 2nd at Bermuda, another short, tight course on an ocean.  Think that there is a lot of upside in picking Noren this week.  I also feel this way about Akshay Bhatia at $7,800.  He has a lot of upside for this week; he is great from tee to green, and his putting is getting better.  He is a very good pick for the price this week.  I also like Matt Kuchar at $7,800 because of his stellar record at Waialae.  Not only did he win in 2019, but in 18 starts, he has eight top tens, including a pair of T-7ths in the last two years.  Yes, he is in the sunset of his career, but he still has some gas left in the tank.  Have to think that Lucas Glover at $7,700 is a perfect pick.  His tee-to-green game is perfect for Waialae, and with his improved putting, he is a no-brainer choice.  Yes, his record isn’t still for Sony, but he did have a T-5th in 2022.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

First pick is Andrew Putnam at $7,500, his game is solid for the Sony and he was 2nd in 2019 and T-4th last year.  He also was T-5th at the World Wide Technology last October, that course is also on the Pacific so don’t lose out on him.  Also, like Ben Griffin at $7,400.  He was T-12th last year at the Sony, and l like how he ended 2023 with a T-8th at the RSM Classic on another course like Waialae. Nick Taylor at $7,200 is a good price for a guy who finished T-7th at the Sony last year and T-11th in 2021.  He has been very consistent since winning the Canadian Open, think he will make the cut and get you some points.  Erik Van Rooyen at $7,200 is picked by me because he played ok at the Sentry, finishing T-22nd, and won on an ocean course in Mexico back in October.  Taylor Montgomery at $7,100 is also worth the price, he was T-12th last year at the Sony and played good in his last start at the RSM finishing T-8th.  Seamus Power at $6,900 is a bit of a gamble because he hasn’t played since the summer due to a hip injury.  He says he is fine and returns to a course in which he finished T-3rd last year.  So he is a bit of a gamble.  Normally I wouldn’t bother with a player who has missed three cuts in three starts at the Sony.  But for Takumi Kanaya, the price is right at $6,700, and he has finished in the top eight in four of his last five starts in Japan, including a T-2nd in his last start, the Nippon Series.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sony Open in Hawaii

The key stat for the winner:

The PGA Tour is still in Hawaii for the Sony Open. Played at Waialae C.C. it’s a fun course for the pros, especially if the wind doesn’t blow. The wind is the only true protection Waialae gets. If it blows, scores are reasonable, but without winds, scores go low, just as Justin Thomas showed us in 2017 by shooting 59. This week, it will be very windy on Thursday and Friday, but perfect over the weekend with winds in the 7 to 10 mph range, so we could see a lot of low scoring.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

The first thing to realize is that Waialae is the complete opposite of the Plantation Course, which held the Sentry last week. Driving accuracy meant nothing, as the Plantation course has the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. But this week is a different story; each year, Waialae is one of the most demanding driving courses on tour. It helps to drive the ball straight, so look at the driving accuracy charts for 2023, and in the top 20, you may find your winner. Looking at the last couple of years’ driving accuracy list, it is funny how past champions in the previous decade, like Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Zach Johnson, Paul Goydos, David Toms, and Jerry Kelly, have ranked high.

Another critical stat to look at is total driving which combines distance with accuracy and looks for the leaders in this stat playing at the Sony to do well.

On a scale of 1 to 10, hitting greens is essential, with ten being the most critical, give hitting greens a 7. Still, you can’t dismiss this stat since 2002, 16 of the last 23 champions have been in the top-ten in this stat, and only four worst than 20th.  That is until 2021 when winner Kevin Na hit 55 of the greens and ranked T-29th.  Even worse was in 2022 when Hideki Matsuyama hit 53 of the 72 greens and ranked T-36th.  But last year, Si Woo Kim hit 60 of 72 greens and was T-2nd in that stat.  In the previous years, 2019, Matt Kuchar led the stat hitting 60 of 72 greens, he joined Jimmy Walker in 2015, and John Huston in 2008 as the three champions to lead the greens hit category since 1997.

Putting is another important stat, but like hitting greens, I give it a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10. What I found interesting in this stat was making putts over ten feet, look for those types to do well. In diving into Shotlink stats for putting inside of 10 feet for 2023  Denny McCarthy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Maverick McNealy, Ada Hadwin, Taylor Montgomery, and Andrew Putnam are the top ten players on the field this week. Last year’s winner, Si Woo Kim, was T-64, while the 2022 champion, Hideki Matsuyama, was 15th.  In the previous year, Kevin Na was T-46th.  2020 champion Cameron Smith was 10th, in 2019 Matt Kuchar was T-11th, 2018, champion Patton Kizzire was 4th in this stat. 2017 champion Justin Thomas was 11th, 2016 champion Fabian Gomez was T-32nd, in 2015 Jimmy Walker was T-6th in putts made from 10 to 15 feet, while 2013 champion Russell Henley was 2nd in putts made between 10 and 15 feet and was 6th in putts made between 15 and 20 feet.

More stats that are important this week are picking a high on the parbreaker list. Ludvig Aberg, Taylor Montgomery, and Eric Cole are in the top ten.

Finally, the par 4s at Waialae is U.S. Open-caliber, they are tough and rank on top of the tour as the toughest in golf. Again, in looking at the winners going back to 2000, when changes were made to reduce par from 72 to 70, every champion was between 2 under and 10 under. Last year, Si Woo Kim was five under, 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama was 12 under them, while in the previous year, Kevin Na was 9 under. In 2020, Cameron Smith was 4 under when he won last year; Matt Kuchar was 11 under; in 2018, Patton Kizzire was 8 under; 2017 winner Justin Thomas was 15 under, and Fabian Gomez was 12 under the year before. In 2015 Jimmy Walker was 16 under, the previous year he was 10 under. In 2013, Russell Henley had the tournament best in this stat, playing the par 4s in an incredible 17 under. In looking at those playing the par 4s the best on tour in 2023

these players are in the top ten playing Sony: Ludvig Aberg, Denny McCarthy, Akshay Bhatia, Russell Henley, and Luke List.