BlogThe American Express Preview and Picks

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Something new for the year:

Now, for those looking for Pick Your Pro 2024, we aren’t going to have one like in past years. What we are doing is something better: we are producing a book called GolfStats Guide to the 2024 PGA Tour season.

The book will preview every event from the Sentry through the Tour Championship, giving important information in making picks. The book will look at the top 80 players on Tour and give you charts you have never seen before. Here is a link to hint at what kind of content the book will have.

We did this book between 2008 and 2011, and it was very successful, and people loved it. Those who have a one-year subscription to GolfStats or those with monthly accounts who have been in good standing for the last eight months will get this book for free.

The bad news is that the landscape for doing this book is totally different than when I did the book 15 years ago. The changes in signature events, LIV golf, and the schedule have put me behind. Another thing I realized is how different the Tour and players have been since 2008. I can’t produce a book in December that has picks for events three to six months from now. Back in 2008, I could predict who would play in the Memorial six months before; now, with it being a signature event, we can’t predict who will play. So the solution we have come up with is a book that should be finished in a week with all 80 players and the first 12 events going through the Players Championship. We will update the book just before the Players for the rest of the events in 2024 and will update players who we don’t know how many events they play in, and we will be able to edit the players. Jason and I feel that you will find this a valuable addition to your membership of GolfStats.

The book is now finished and going out to our qualified subscribers in the next couple of days.

So there are two ways to get our Fantasy Golf Guide: either get a one-year subscription to GolfStats, or you can buy the book for $35.   We feel this is a HUGE value to our members and think you will too.

Here is two pages from the book for the American Express:

History of the American Express:

For years, the event was one of the top events, and never had to worry about sponsorship as Chrysler was a part of the event since its early years.  But Chrysler dropped sponsorship in 2008, leaving the tournament vulnerable.  It no longer had Bob Hope’s influence, who grew too old to participate in the 90s, and when he died in 2003, the event was in chaos.  With Hope, the event had a firm footing as players loved to be a part of it, and they got the best of stars playing with the players.  But just after Hope died, the stars didn’t show up, and players found participating in a five-day, 90-hole event too much.  The difference in this event was that it was played in five days on four different courses, and the pro was paired with four amateurs.  The AT&T Pebble Beach was over four days over three courses, but it paired the golfer with a celebrity for the 3 days in which each pairing was two professionals with two amateurs.  So, this was more of a team event between the player and the amateur.  But the Hope had a professional with four different amateurs over four days, players hated this more and more.

This went on for three years after Chrysler left, and after the 2011 event, many thought the tournament was finished. That wasn’t the case, Tim Finchem and the Tour arranged with Bill Clinton to get his foundation involved and then got Humana to take over sponsorship.  The format changed from a 90-hole tournament to a 72-hole, which helped coax more players to attend.  Humana stuck around for four years before leaving as the sponsor, but the Tour got CareerBuilders to step in and take over through 2021, so it was thought that the event was on a substantial foundation.  But CareerBuilder’s stepped away after 2018, and things got foggy again.  The event went on in 2019 without a sponsor, while another was found, which happened to be American Express.

A sponsor was easier to find because of what the tournament did after the 2015 event was played.  The most popular home venue for the tournament was the Palmer Course, which was the home course for 14 of the 17 years between 1999 and 2015.  But after 2015, the Palmer private and Nicklaus private didn’t want to participate in the tournament. It was a terrible deal for tournament officials because they realized the importance of the Palmer course after a disastrous change in 2006 when the event was played at the Classic Club for three years.  Along with the PGA Tour, Tournament officials made what could have been a very controversial decision to bring the Stadium Course out of retirement, the Pete Dye design course, which held the event in 1987, to a lot of complaints.

Back then, the course was stunning on television, but the players hated it.  In the age of persimmon drivers and balata balls, the players thought the Dye track was too complicated and “gimmicky”  with its island green, 20-foot-deep bunkers, a green surrounded by a nine-foot moat-style bunker.  Hitting drives was demanding because if the fairways were missed, the ball’s chances were in a bush or behind a tree.  The course was the most penal course in the Palm Springs area and the country.  On top of that, the players hated how long it took to play.  Playing with amateurs, it took over six hours to get around.

The players demonized the course as being too hard, and it was.  Over 25 years, all the courses that held the Desert Classic ranked very quickly and were known as places to make lots of eagles and birdies.  But that wasn’t the case with PGA West in 1987. The field played two rounds on the course in 1987, and they disliked it.  It played to a 74.157 average for the week,  two shots over par for the field.  It ranked as the 7th hardest course that year, with the players loudly voicing their displeasure in the days after Corey Pavin won.  When the Tour dropped the TPC Stadium Course a few weeks later, it made many players very happy, and it was thought that it would never have another PGA Tour event.

In 1987 of the 18 holes played at PGA West, 16 were played over par.  The only ones under were the par 5, 8th, and the par 4, 12th. It’s hard to believe that three of the four par 5s were over par, and the 11th hole played to a 5.308 average.  In the 35 years since, only ten par 5s played harder, with the 14th at Pebble Beach playing the hardest.

So the question in 2016 was if players thought that PGA West, which was impossible 29 years previous, would play differently.  Over the three decades, the course was softened.  Bushes and small trees that used to line the fairways had been removed, making the fairways more generous.  The moat bunker at 12 is gone, and with golf equipment better and the course gaining only 190 yards, it still looked speculator on TV but didn’t kill the pros. When the course returned in 2016, it played to an average of 70.818, making it the 41st hardest of 50 courses.  In 1987, 16 of the 18 holes were played over par.  In 2016, only seven played over par.  More importantly, the players loved playing the course; many thought it was one of the best courses of the year.  So, going into the 2017 event, the course was again the star.  Things didn’t change that year as the course played to an average of 71.588 and was the 30th hardest course of the year (primarily because of the wet weather all four days).  Despite it being more challenging, there was nothing but praise as players loved the Stadium Course.  In 2018, things were more of the same; it played to a 71.18 average and was the 36th hardest course for the year.  In 2019, the course played to a 70.24 scoring average and was the 40th hardest course for 2019. In 2020, the course played to a 70.36 average and was the 36th hardest course.  In 2021, it played to a 70.81 average and was the 36th hardest (out of 51 courses), while in 2022, it played to a 70.57 average and was the 37th hardest course.  Last year, it played to a 69.20 average and was the 55th hardest course.  So, the course went from one of the most difficult golf courses to a very manageable one.  More importantly, players have loved the course, so it’s become a fixture for this event.

Major changes for 2021

With the solid footings of American Express, the event would have a bright and fun future for many more years.  However, significant changes were made in California with the pandemic out of hand.  The most brutal change for the tournament was the pro-am portion was dropped, so no amateurs were playing.  With the amateurs being dropped, 624 players wouldn’t be playing, so the sponsors illuminated one course, which was played on just two courses.  Because the Nicklaus course shares the same clubhouse as the Stadium course, they had to drop LaQuinta, a regular course, since it joined the rota in 1963.  In the 58 years before 2021, it only missed nine events in 1980, 1987, 1989, 1990,1993, 1996,1999, 2002, and 2009.

But the big deal was that players got to play the Stadium Course for three days and get more marquee players for TV.

Reverting back for 2022.

So things are back to normal, the amateurs are back, and La Quinta Country Club is back in the rota, holding one of the four rounds.  This was a special year for La Quinta as it was the 51st time the American Express was being played on it.  Funny, when La Quinta debuted in 1964, it was considered a difficult course with its tight fairways and small greens.  It’s funny how things have evolved in the 60 years since it’s gone from one of the toughest courses on Tour to one of the easiest today.

Some other things that are back are fans, and along with the fans, they enjoyed some of the post-round concerts.  In 2022, Maroon 5 with Adam Levine played on Friday, while Brad Paisley played on Saturday. Last year, Gwen Stefani played on Friday, and on Saturday, Darius Rucker played.   This year, Keith Urban will play on Friday, and on Saturday, there will be Train. This concert series has proven very important for the tournament and helped attract more fans.

So, how many of you know who Bob Hope is???

For many, you ask them who Bob Hope was. Unfortunately, many don’t realize his importance in the entertainment and golfing world.  He was probably the most significant comedian between the 1930s and 90s and hosted this event between 1965 and his death in 2003 at age 100. Hope’s name was the fixture until it was dropped in 2012.

Yes, Bob Hope would be proud that the event is still popular today.  Of course, this event has competition as it’s played the same week as the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour.  Abu Dhabi has an excellent field of marquee players like Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, and Tyrrell Hatton are in the field.  Another disadvantage is due to LIV Golf.  Phil Mickelson, who used to host this event along with defending champion Hudson Swafford, Patrick Reed, and Pat Perez, can’t play in the event they won.  Still, the field has the best field it ever has had, with ten of the top 20 in the world in the field.

So, will the low scoring continue at American Express?

Scoring has always been low in this event.  Since it went from 90 holes to 72 in 2011, the range of scores has been from 20 under par (in 2017) to as low as 28 under by Patrick Reed in 2014.  59 has been shot twice in this event, first by David Duval in the final round at the Palmer Course in 1999.  In 2017, Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta.  As for the Stadium course, Patrick Cantlay shot 61 in the final round in 2022.  Showing how you have to shoot low, of the 10 players that finished in the top ten in the 2022 American Express, only one round saw a score over par for any round. Of the 40 rounds played by those 10 players, 32 rounds were in the 60s so that we can see that scoring will be low. Again, 2023 showed how scoring has gone low; of the 69 players that made the cut, only four shot over par in the final round. So you have to go low to win the American Express.

In the two weeks of play in Hawaii, Chris Kirk was 29 under at Kapalua, while Grayson Murray was 17 under in the Sony Open. Unfortunately, both of them will be poor picks for this week.

Course information:

• A unique event that will return to three courses this year, with Pete Dye Stadium hosting two of the four rounds.
• 7,187 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 76.1 rating and slope rating of 150 from the championship tees, making it one of the country’s hardest.
• The course was designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1986.  Dye was hired by the Landmark developing company, which was big in the 80s with over a dozen courses worldwide.  Landmark owners Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser gave Dye the task of building the most challenging course in the World.
• Along with the 1987 Desert Classic, the Skins Game was held on the course between 1986 and 1991.  PGA Tour qualifying school was held six times, the last being 2008, but the hint that the course was becoming more playable was when the Champions Tour had the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on it in 1995 and ’96.  The seniors took a liking to the course, which was softened for that event.
• The average green size is 6,500 square feet, and the course has nearly a hundred bunkers around it.  Water comes into play on nine of the holes, and the Desert Classic course record is 61 by Patrick Cantlay in the final round in 2021.
• Last year the course played to a 68.20 average and was the 55th hardest course on tour (out of 58 courses).
• Now, the course may be one of the most intimidating courses on the PGA Tour, but thanks to some work, it is very manageable.  In 2023, 225 rounds were played on it, with 177 under-par rounds, 17 rounds at even par, and only 31 rounds over par.

Other courses used in the Rota:

• La Quinta C.C.
• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course has a 74.2 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees
• The course is private and not open to the public and returns to the rota after not being played in 2021.
• La Quinta was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in and rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course and made them all come into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. The Novotny family gave it to La Quinta Country Club in memory of Frank Capra, who was a living legend in the 30s and 40s at the La Quinta Inn.
• The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards as eight holes are affected.  La Quinta was first used as a tournament course in 1964, and after this year will be a part of 51 of the 64 Desert Classic and has historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977, 1980, and 1983.
• Here is the scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:
• 2022 – 69.583 average, 53rd easiest of the 58 courses used for the year
• 2022 – 69.917 average, 8th easiest of the 50 courses used for the year
• 2020 – 69.176 average, the easiest of the 41 courses used for the year
• 2019 – 68.718 average, the easiest of the 49 courses used for the year
• 2018 – 68.831 average, the easiest of the 51 courses used for the year
• 2017 – 69.635 average, 2nd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2016 – 69.148 average, 3rd easiest of 50 courses used for the year
• 2015 – 70.083 average, 6th easiest of 52 courses used for the year
• 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for the year
• 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for the year
• 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for the year
• 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for the year
• 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for the year

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

La Quinta, Calif.

7,147 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 143 from the championship tees.

The course is open to the public.

The course is a tamer version of its neighbor, the Stadium course.  Look for lots of birdies to be made, as the fairways are generous, and the greens should be easy to hit.  The Nicklaus course held the final PGA Tour qualifying tournament on the course in 1988, ’90. ’93, 2000, ’02, ’04, ’06, ’08, ’12, and ’13, so many of the players in the field will have played it.

Last year the course was used for the seventh straight year and blended very well into the tournament.  The course had a 68.724 average making it the 57th hardest of 58 courses used on the PGA Tour in 2023.

COURSE KEYS

We won’t have course keys since the event was played on three different courses in previous years.

DraftKings tips

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii, a total of 59 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,400
• Xander Schauffele – $10,900
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,800
• Sungjae Im – $10,100
• Tom Kim – $9,900
• Justin Thomas – $9,800
• Jason Day – $9,600
• Min Woo Lee – $9.500
• Sam Burns – $9,400
• Tony Finau – $9,300
• Rickie Fowler – $9,200
• J.T. Poston – $9,100
• Chris Kirk – $9,000

There is a great field this week and a lot of great picks.  Off the bat, you can’t go wrong with Scottie Scheffler at $11,400; he is a DraftKings point machine. Even with a T-5th at the Sentry, Scheffler still won 133 points. He hasn’t played great in this event over the last three years, but we know he will be in contention this year, so yes, he is expensive, but worth the cost. Xander Schauffele at $10,900 is another costly choice, and even though he makes a lot of points, it’s nothing like what Scheffler earns. But by finishing T-3rd last year, he has some upside, but I will take a pass at his high cost. Patrick Cantlay at $10,800 is a lot, but like Schauffele, he makes a lot of points, and Cantlay has an excellent record in this event, except last year when he finished T-26th. I wouldn’t worry about that. The Stadium course is perfect for his game, and he has shot 61 on it, so I am very high on Patrick. Sungjae Im at $10,100 is one of those picks in which you ask yourself if he is worth the cost, but look what he has done recently. He was T-5th at the Sentry and had a great year. Despite that, there are some things to worry about. Yes has made all five cuts at the Amex, with all top 20 finishes. But his best is T-10th, and since he only averages 74.1 points per event, I am taking a pass on Sungjae.  Tom Kim, at $9,900, is a terrific choice. First, don’t worry; his last start was a T-45th in Maui. I like  Kim because he was T-6th last year in this event, and he has won the Shriners and played in the desert twice. So that desert mojo is there and the reason you want to pick him, even at a high cost. Another great pick is Justin Thomas at $9,800. I see him getting off early and winning early, as 2024 is all about making up for a terrible year. It’s been almost a decade since Thomas played in this event, but in his last start in 2015, he was T-7th, but it wasn’t on the Stadium Course. I still think Thomas is going to be awesome early. Talk about another comeback story; Jason Day at $9,600 is another. He, too, has not played much at this event; he was T-18th last year and was T-10th at the Sentry. It’s a hard choice, but with so many good choices, I have to take a pass on Day for this week. Same with Min Woo Lee at $9.500, he is playing the Amex for the first time and hasn’t played much on the PGA Tour. But Lee has played great the last two months, winning the SJM Macao Open and the Australian PGA Championship. Still, I feel that the combination of how he has played outside of the PGA Tour needs to be considered. Still, in the 14 events he collected DraftKings points, his average is just 59.3 an event, not enough to justify his high cost. Sam Burns at $9,400 is a lot; he was T-33rd at the Sentry, and in four starts at the Amex, his best finish was T-6th in 2020. One thing to keep in your back pocket: he averages 70.9 DraftKings points, which is good, so he is a toss-up pick. The same goes for Tony Finau at $9,300; he was 4th at the Amex in 2021, so he can go low in the desert. He was T-4th at the Hero World Challenge but T-38th at the Sentry. He does have an upside, earning an average of 74.9 DraftKings points per event. With all of that, I can’t pick him this week. Rickie Fowler at $9,200 is a lot for a person with his record. In six Amex, his best finish is T-10th in 2020, so that isn’t anything to cheer about. He also has not finished better than T-16th since his Rocket Mortgage win in July, so that makes our answer easy, except for one thing: he does average 76.5 DraftKings points per event. Still, I will take a pass on Fowler. As for J.T. Poston at $9,100, it’s hard to ignore him any longer. He was T-6th last year in the Amex and T-7th in 2019, but look at his totals of late. He has finished in the top ten seven times in his previous 11 starts and was T-5th at The Sentry and 6th at the Sony Open. $9,100 is a tricky price point, but you must pick Poston this week. Last is Chris Kirk at $9,000. Conventional wisdom tells us that he won at the Sentry and was in contention at the Sony but shot 70 on the last day to finish T-18th.  But remember, he was T-3rd at the Amex last year. I am not taking him, but many may consider him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players who play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  Going back to the 2000 American Express on who has made the most cuts, it’s a look.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Amex starts:

• Adam Hadwin made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,300
• Sungjae Im made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $10,100
• Matt Kuchar made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,500
• Andrew Putnam made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,000
• David Lingmerth made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,100
• Sam Ryder made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,200
• Si Woo Kim made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,600
• Tony Finau made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,300
• Patrick Cantlay made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $10,800
• Wyndham Clark made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,900
• Josh Teater made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,200
• Patton Kizzire made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,000
• Cam Davis made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,400
• Sam Burns made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,400
• Scottie Scheffler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $11,400
• Martin Laird made 11 cuts in 15 starts for a 73.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,300
• Jason Dufner made 10 cuts in 14 starts for a 71.4% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,000
• Andrew Landry made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,000
• J.T. Poston made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,100
• Zach Johnson made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,300
• Rickie Fowler made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,200
• Alex Noren made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,800
• Daniel Berger made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,000
• Maverick McNealy made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,900
• Tyler Duncan made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,700
• Ryan Brehm made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,000
• Tyler McCumber made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 55.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,100
• (The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $8,900 that are worth the price:

First is Eric Cole at $8,800; yes, he has played great; since his 4th-place finishes at Fortinet, he has been within the top 14 in his last seven starts. He was T-14th at the Sentry and T-13th at Sony, so the question is, which direction is Cole going? I will wait until the tour gets to Florida to pick him up. Cam Davis at $8,400 is worth a look. He has played great since the summer and was 3rd in this event in 2021. He may have finished T-30th last week at the Sony, but he opened up with a round of 62 and didn’t play that badly; I feel the price is good enough to pick him. My top choice for this week is Adam Hadwin at $8,300. He has been incredible in his eight Amex starts. He has four top-tens, including a T-3rd in 2018, but was runner-up in 2017 and ’19. Yes, he missed the cut at the Sony but didn’t play badly, so Hadwin is an automatic pick. Taylor Montgomery at $8,100 is worth a look; he was 5th last year at the Amex, played well in Hawaii, and was T-13th at the Sony Open. At $8,000, Andrew Putnam is one to watch; he was T-10th last week at the Sony and has made the cut at the Amex the last six years in a row, including a T-10th in 2020.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Watch Ben Griffin at $7,400. He may have finished T-30th at the Sony, but he did shoot a second-round 62. He was T-32nd last year at the Amex.  Matthieu Pavon at $7,200 is worth the look; he was T-7th last week at the Sony. Ben Kohles at $7,100 is worth a look; he was the top dog on the Korn Ferry Tour, finishing T-5th at the RSM and T-52nd at the Sony. Patton Kizzire, at $7,000, is a good choice since he has made 6 of 8 cuts at the Amex and was T-11th last year. Carl Yuan at $6,900 is almost a sure thing, he was 4th at Bermuda and T-4th at the Sony. His game has become more consistent, and he should play well this week. Robert MacIntyre, at $6,800, is worth a look at. He is one of the DP World Tour players who got onto the PGA Tour, and he has played well of late, including a T-6th at Qatar.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the American Express

The key stat for the winner:

• With the addition of Pete Dye Stadium Course, it now gives the tournament a bit more of a challenge.  You won’t find any 59s shot on this course, in its first year 2016, 65 was the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2017 Dominic Bozzelli shot 64 in the first round, making it the lowest round shot at the Stadium Course, which was one of the 50 rounds shot at the Stadium Course.  In 2018 Kevin Chappell shot 64 in the second round, and Sam Saunders shot 64 in the final round, the low at the Stadium Course.  In 2019 several 64s were shot at PGA West, but still, the possibility of someone shooting 63 or lower is small.  In 2020 we saw a new course record as Sam Burns and Abraham Ancer both shot 63. Now Patrick Cantlay broke all of the records in 2021 when he shot 61 in the final round.  Last year the low round on the Pete Dye course was 62 by Xander Schauffele and Erik Van Rooyen in the final round. Still, the key here is that low scores aren’t shot on this course like the others.
• The most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  In 2021, because of COVID-19, the rules were changed, and only two courses were used.  But in 2022, the three courses returned, and we can see that 658 birdies with 30 eagles were made at La Quanta, 683 birdies, and 17 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1006 birdies with 16 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.  Last year we saw 713 birdies with 29 eagles made at La Quanta, 803 birdies and 25 eagles on the Nicklaus course, and 1,156 birdies with 29 eagles on the Pete Dye Stadium Course
• So a key stat to look at for this week is Par Breakers on tour
• Of the top 10 on that list playing this week are Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Rickie Fowler, all good picks this week.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

This week, the pros will play over three courses in four days, which is quite a learning scale with very little time to prepare and learn two new courses.  This makes it even harder for those coming from Hawaii; unless they take red-eyes on Sunday night or miss the cut, they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still, it’s better than when this event was played over five days.

Another problem for the pros is that they play with two amateurs in the first three days.  So patience is needed to tolerate those five-plus hour rounds.  Look for experienced players to do well, those with a long track record at the Desert Classic should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 6th start.  But things have changed over the years; Jon Rahm played in his fifth start last year when he won the Amex for a second time. In 2022, Hudson Swafford won the Amex a second time in his ninth start. In 2021, Si Woo Kim played in his fourth Amex.  In 2019, Adam Long played in his first American Express; in 2018, Jon Rahm won on his second try.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford won on his fourth start; in 2016, Jason Dufner won on his 7th try.  In 2015, Bill Haas won on his 11th try, while the year before, Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th American Express start, while 2012 winner Mark Wilson made his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes, Adam Long won in 2019 in his first Amex, Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011, and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Long, Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.

As we said before, the winner must make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004, while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008, along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010, and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies, while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013. In 2014, Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies and two eagles, while in 2015, Bill Haas made one eagle and 22 birdies.  2016 Jason Dufner went low on new courses and had 30 birdies.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford had 26 birdies.  In 2018, Jon Rahm had an eagle and 26 birdies; in 2019, Adam Long made 3 eagles and 24 birdies.  In 2020, Andrew Landry made 31 birdies and not eagles, which helps make the point that to win, they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every 10 holes played.  2021 was a bit different since the Stadium Course was played three times, and winner Si Woo Kim only made one eagle and 23 birdies.  In 2022, when the event returned to three courses, winner Hudson Swafford made 29 birdies and an eagle.

Last year, Jon Rahm won the event, making an eagle and 26 birdies.

Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 27 winners have averaged a bit under 14 under on them, with Phil Mickelson playing them at 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003, and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.    Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005; Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006, Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007, while D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them, with Pat Perez setting the record for playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010, while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under, while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  In 2015, Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.  Jason Dufner went low in 2016, playing the par 5s in 12 under.  In 2017, Hudson Swafford broke tradition as he played the par 5s in 8 under, the first time since 1997 that someone was in single figures on the par 5s.  In 2018, Jon Rahm played the par 5s at 13 under par, while in 2019, Adam Long played them at 11 under par.  2020 winner Andrew Landry also played the par 5s in 11 under.  Even though Si Woo Kim had to play the Stadium Course three times, he did great on the par 5s, playing them in 13 under.  In 2022, Hudson Swafford was 12 under on the par 5s, while Jon Rahm was 13 under last year.

The weather will not be picture-perfect as in past years. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s each day, but every day will be cloudy with showers on Sunday. So, with this kind of weather and very little wind, look for low scores.