BlogFarmers Insurance Open Preview and Picks

Farmers Insurance Open

January 24th – 27th, 2024

Torrey Pines South Course

San Diego, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,765

Purse: $9 million

with $1,620,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Max Homa

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 53 of the top 100 in the latest Official World rankings, with 20 of the top 50 players.  There are three players from the top ten: #5 Xander Schauffele, #6 Patrick Cantlay, and #7 Max Homa.  The other top 100 players are #12 Collin Morikawa, #13 Keegan Bradley, #17 Sepp Straka, #18 Jason Day, #19 Sahith Theegala, #26 Tony Finau, #28 Sungjae Im, #29 Ludvig Aberg, #32 Ryan Fox, #35 Emiliano Grillo, #36 Min Woo Lee, #37 Harris English, #38 Eric Cole, #39 Adrian Meronk, #43 Justin Rose, #44 Will Zalatoris, #47 Shane Lowry, #51 Nicolai Hojgaard, #52 Adam Schenk, #53 Hideki Matsuyama, #55 Taylor Moore, #56 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, #58 Adam Svensson, #61 Robert MacIntyre, #63 Tom Hoge, #65 Lee Hodges, #66 Mackenzie Hughes, #67 Aaron Rai, #70 Keith Mitchell, #71 Billy Horschel, #72 Ryo Hisatsune, #73 Matt Wallace, #75 Alexander Bjork, #77 Justin Suh, #78 Matthieu Pavon, #79 Vincent Norrman, #80 K.H. Lee, #81 Victor Perez, #82 Ben Griffin, #86 Beau Hossler, #88 Alex Smalley, #90 Patrick Rodgers, #91 Taylor Montgomery, #93 Seamus Power, #95 Akshay Bhatia, #96 Luke List, #97 Taylor Pendrith, #98 Austin Eckroat, #99 Zac Blair, #100 Michael Kim.

Last year, 13 top-50 players were on the field.

The field includes 9 players in the top 25 on last year’s FedEx point standings.  Those players are #2 Xander Schauffele, #5 Patrick Cantlay, #6 Collin Morikawa, #9 Keegan Bradley, #9 Max Homa, #9 Adam Schenk, #14 Sepp Straka, #19 Tony Finau, and #23 Sungjae Im.

The field includes 7 past champions in the field (winning 9 Farmers titles) this week: Max Homa – 2023, Luke List – 2022, Justin Rose – 2019, Jason Day – 2018 & ’15, Brandt Snedeker 2016 &’12, Scott Stallings – 2014, and Nick Watney – 2009.

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Farmers Insurance Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Farmers Insurance Open in the last five years, or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Farmers Insurance Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the Field for the Farmers Insurance Open

Player American Express Dubai Desert Sony Open Dubai Invit. The Sentry Hero World Australian Open Australian PGA DP World Tour RSM Classic Bermuda Champ. World Wide Tech. Zozo Champ.
Xander Schauffele
(187.33 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(40)
4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(4)
Adrian Meronk
(169 pts)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP 10
(40)
DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
T40
(3.33)
T32
(9)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Eric Cole
(165.33 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP T14
(36)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
Nicolai Hojgaard
(152.33 pts)
DNP T7
(55)
DNP T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(66)
DNP DNP DNP T31
(6.33)
Collin Morikawa
(150.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(70)
7
(36.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
Sungjae Im
(141 pts)
T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(70)
T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
Min Woo Lee
(140.5 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 3
(30)
Win
(44)
T15
(17.5)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(20)
Keegan Bradley
(140 pts)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP T45
(5)
T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T19
(10.33)
Nick Dunlap
(128.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Ryo Hisatsune
(124 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP T30
(20)
DNP DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
T13
(12.33)
T18
(16)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(20)
Sepp Straka
(118.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(38)
2
(66.67)
DNP DNP T22
(14)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Matthieu Pavon
(101 pts)
T39
(11)
DNP T7
(55)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
(100 pts)
2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Akshay Bhatia
(100 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP T14
(36)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(4)
T20
(10)
T10
(13.33)
T21
(9.67)
Sahith Theegala
(97 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T19
(10.33)
Ben Griffin
(95 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP T30
(20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
T37
(4.33)
T23
(9)
T64
(0)
Carl Yuan
(93.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
4
(26.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Tony Finau
(90.33 pts)
T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP T38
(12)
T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Harris English
(83.33 pts)
DNP DNP T10
(40)
DNP T14
(36)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T28
(7.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Jason Day
(82 pts)
T34
(16)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(40)
11
(26)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ludvig Aberg
(80.33 pts)
DNP DNP T30
(20)
DNP T47
(3)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP
Kevin Yu
(80 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T30
(6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T59
(0)
Michael Kim
(80 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP T42
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T23
(9)
T41
(3)
Mackenzie Hughes
(77.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T7
(18.33)
T48
(0.67)
Keith Mitchell
(75.33 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP T30
(20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T38
(4)
T21
(9.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the Field for the Farmers Insurance Open

Player American Express Dubai Desert Sony Open Dubai Invit. The Sentry Hero World Australian Open Australian PGA DP World Tour RSM Classic Bermuda Champ. World Wide Tech. Zozo Champ.
Ben Taylor
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
77
(0)
Hayden Buckley
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T59
(0)
72
(0)
Kevin Streelman
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Josh Teater
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Brandt Snedeker
(-21.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Callum Tarren
(-20.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T31
(6.33)
Pierceson Coody
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Adrien Dumont de Chassart
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Chad Ramey
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
David Skinns
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

What a great win by 20-year-old Nick Dunlap, who accomplished a feat that many think can’t be done anymore: win on the PGA Tour as an amateur. Dunlap becomes the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson in 1991. He is only the ninth amateur winner since 1945 – and only the third in the last 68 years:

Here are the Amateurs that have won on the PGA Tour since World War II:

  • Nick Dunlap, 2024 The American Express
  • Phil Mickelson, 1991 Northern Telecom Open
  • Scott Verplank, 1985 BMW Championship
  • Doug Sanders, 1956 RBC Canadian Open
  • Gene Littler, 1954 Farmers Insurance Open
  • Frank Stranahan, 1948 Miami Open
  • Frank Stranahan, 1945 Durham War Bond Tournament
  • Cary Middlecoff, 1945 North & South Championship
  • Fred Haas, 1945 Memphis Invitational

Dunlap, the current U.S. Amateur Champion and a sophomore at Alabama was playing in just his fourth PGA Tour event, and it was the first time he made the cut (miss cut 2023 & ’22 U.S. Open, 2023 Bermuda championship). Playing on a sponsor’s exemption, he won the American Express by a shot over Christiaan Bezuidenhout. He won the U.S.Amateur five months ago in Denver and is the fourth reigning U.S. Amateur champion to also win on the PGA Tour, joining Mickelson, Gene Littler, and Scott Verplank. That isn’t the only prestigious amateur event he won; he also claimed victory in the 2021 U.S. Junior Amateur to join Tiger Woods as the only player to win a U.S. Amateur and U.S. Junior Amateur. Dunlap also won the 2023 Northeast Amateur and North & South Amateur, plus helped the USA retain the Waler Cut at St. Andrews.

Despite only turning 20 last month, Dunlap showed a maturity well past his age. After opening with rounds of 64-65, he shot a 12-under 60 at La Quinta Country Club, tying for the lowest 18-hole score by an amateur in a PGA Tour event (Patrick Cantlay shot 60 at the 2011 Travelers). That brought on a pressure he had never experienced before. He went into the final round of a PGA Tour event with a three-shot lead. So he was going to play in front of an extensive gallery and play along with the best players in the world. Dunlap played his first six holes in one under but hit his tee shot into the water on the seventh hole, leading to a double bogey. While he was having his fur ball, his playing partner Sam Burns made birdie on the hole to share the lead. Burns wasn’t through; he birdied 10, 11, and 14 to take the lead. But instead of panicking, Dunlap birdied his next hole and then 14 and 16 to tie with Burns. At par 3, island green, called Alcatraz, after Dunlap safely hit the middle of the green, Burns hit a terrible shot that found the water and made a double bogey. Thinking he had a two-shot lead, Dunlap pushed his drive right on 18 while Christiaan Bezuidenhout made a birdie at 18. Dunlap again showed off his maturity to get his second shot just off the final green and make a 5-footer for par and a one-shot victory.

Just like that, Dunlap finds himself with a great decision that not many others have. Yes, Dunlap wasn’t going to get the $1.5 million first-place check, but he can now not only play in all PGA Tour events through 2026 but also get into all the signature events and play in all the majors. The good news is that he was already exempt into the Masters, the U.S. Open, and the British Open based on his U.S. Amateur triumph. But if he stays an amateur, he can play as an amateur and participate in college events for Alabama. Of course, the money is there right now; even if he plays poorly over the next two years, he would probably be able to win half a million, and that doesn’t include deals made as a professional. This is an easy decision for many: take the money and run. I think that Dunlap will remain an amateur and play in the Masters, U.S., and British Open as an amateur. He will also get to play in the NCAA Championship and could play in several PGA Tour events. The most prestigious thing he could accomplish is being the first amateur to win a major in 91 years since Johnny Goodman won the U.S. Open in 1933. He could also be the first to win back-to-back Amateurs since Tiger Woods won his third in a row in 1996.

The good news for Dunlap, and I think he will do, is to remain amateur through the summer and then, after trying to defend his Amateur crown, could turn professional and still get all the perks through 2026 on Tour. In a way, it’s a challenging but fun decision to have, something that even the great Tiger Woods didn’t have.

One essential item. BE AWARE: due to not wanting to play on Sunday and be up against the NFL, this year’s Farmers will start on WEDNESDAY and end on SATURDAY. So don’t miss the early start.

So, who are the players we are watching for this week?

The list is easy. Of course, at the top of the list is Xander Schauffele, who was T-3rd at the American Express and T-10th at the Sentry. He grew up in the La Jolla area and played a lot of golf at Torrey, so he is ready to go. Also, watch Eric Cole; he was T-14th at the Sentry, T-13th at the Sony Open, and T-21st at the Amex.  Sungjae Im could be my choice for this week; he was T-6th in 2022 and T-4th last year at the Farmers. For this year, Im was T-5th at the Sentry and T-25th at the Amex. Also, I have to watch Tony Finau, who was T-6th at the Farmers in 2020, T-2nd in 2021, and T-9th last year. Also, like Keegan Bradley, who was runner-up at the Sony losing in the playoff, he was runner-up at Torrey last year. Jason Day is also a good pick; he won in 2015 and 2018, was T-3rd in 2022, and T-7th in 2023. Ludvig Aberg is also returning on Tour; he was T-30th at the Sony and T-47th at the Sentry. We should get a good assessment of which direction he will go.

Many will go after Patrick Cantlay, but I am avoiding him. He was T-12th at the Sentry and T-52nd at the Amex, but he has struggled in three starts at Torrey and has yet to play there since 2019. Max Homa and Collin Morikawa have great records in California and have had their Torrey Pines moments, so they may be worth supporting this week.

One person I was interested in was Justin Thomas, but he withdrew from the event. Since he made a 20-footer on the final hole at the Amex, which got him into Pebble Beach, he withdrew from this week to play three straight weeks at Pebble, Phoenix, and Genesis. Also, many will be disappointed that Nick Dunlap withdrew, but he has a lot on his mind and can understand that he wants to return to Alabama and get advice on the direction to go.

Course information:
  • Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California
  • South Course (Home Course) – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,765
  • North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,258

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957.  In the 80s, both courses were revamped with all-new greens with the work done by the city.

The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957, with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra, and a local pro, Don Gillett, the first to play it.  Five months later, the North Course opened.  Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.

The two courses were Leo Calland’s brainchild, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course.  When he got permission, Bell came in and covered over the blacktop and could use the excess concrete to roll fairways on a flat site.  The lure of both courses after they opened was the views of the ocean on every hole.  Both courses sit atop of bluffs overlooking the Pacific. These views were seen a couple of years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of their matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead, and Doug Sanders.

A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home.  Since the tournament was first played in 1952, it never really found a home.  It was played on several different courses, but in 1968 it would embark on a significant change.  It decided to copy several West Coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams, who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show.  They also needed financial support and asked for the city to use Torrey Pines free of charge.  It was a match made in heaven.  The course proved very popular not only with the pros but the TV audience that watched it.

Since then, Torrey Pines has been the home of the tournament, although every year, rumblings were heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.

After the 2001 Buick, the South course went through an extensive revamping process.  With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones, adding a lot of length to the course.  With the changes, the course could stretch to 7,700 yards, although the PGA Tour played it below that figure.  Though Jones didn’t change the course’s routing, he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes, moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes.  With all the changes brought some bite back to a course that 50 years ago was considered very difficult by touring professionals.  Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years, and the winning score in 2002 of 275 was, along with two other years, the highest winning score in 20 years.  The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media, and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines, and that was such a big success that in 2021, the USGA would return the Open to Torrey.

To get ready for the 2021 U.S. Open, course architect Rees Jones returned after the 2019 event to get the course prepared by making numerous subtle changes.  $14 million was spent to renovate and strengthen the course by installing a new irrigation system.  They also resed every tee, redid every bunker, and redid the areas around all 18 greens without doing anything to the greens. The most striking alterations come on the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make it harder to drive in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.  So the changes will add more of a premium on accurate driving, but another thing the changes did was add another 67 yards to the course, making it play to 7,765, which is not only the longest course on tour but the first course to venture over the 7,700-yard mark.  As one pro Beau Hossler said to Tod Leonard of the San Diego Tribune:

“They’re kind of seemingly taking away the easy holes and turning them into moderate holes.  So, basically, there are no easy holes out here when you play it all the way back.”  So it will be interesting to see how much harder the course will play, of course, if the weather is perfect like predicted, scores will be low, and we may never know until either next year’s Farmers or when the U.S. Open is played on the course.

The North Course was redone in 2016 and proved to be about a shot and a half easier than the South.  Still, in many people’s minds, the North is more scenic and more fun to play..

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the South Course at Torrey Pines:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last year’s Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for stats from 2023.
The event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one-round data from the North Course.
The scoring average of the Torrey South Course field last year was 73.62, and it was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour and the hardest non-major course out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Torrey South Course for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 72.35, was the 15th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 73.34, it was the 4th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2021 – The course also held the U.S. Open that year and the average score was 73.45 making it the 2nd hardest course of the year
*2020 – Average was 72.53, was 7th hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 71.73, was 18th hardest of 49 courses that year

In 2019 it was the first time that the South Course played under par since 2001, when it played to an average of 71.82. Days after that event, bulldozers came in, and the course was completely renovated for the 2008 U.S. Open by Rees Jones. So why did the course play so easily in 2019? The weather couldn’t be better, warm all four days with wind under 10 mph each day. With that, Justin Rose shot 21 under par, the lowest winning score since Tiger Woods shot 22 under in 1999. Of course, the wind is always a factor, in 2018, with low temperatures the first three days and winds gusting up to 25 mph, the scoring average was 72.81, the 8th hardest course for the year. In 2017 it was windy each day, and the average was 72.77, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016 when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. That year, they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, which is why the change happened.
72.956 has been the South Course average since 2016, but the overall tournament average has been 72.143. That’s because one round is played on the North Course, which has been a layup in past years, but the course had some changes done to it. The scoring average of the Torrey North Course field last year was 71.45, and it was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Torrey North Course for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 68.77, was the 48th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 70.13, it was the 44th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 70.57, was 33rd hardest of 41 courses that year
*2019 – Average was 69.84, was 45th hardest of 49 courses that year

So why did 2022 play so easily? Weather that year, the temperatures went from 65 to a high of 70 on Saturday. With both courses on the Pacific, wind plays a key role, and all four days saw the wind blowing between 6 to 12 mph, very mild conditions.
Our course key is based on the South Course, which underwent another renovation before the 2020 event to prepare for the 2021 U.S. Open. There have been numerous subtle changes on the South Course, but the most striking alterations were made to the 4th, 9th, 10th, 15th, and 17th holes. Tees were moved to make driving harder in the fairway, and new bunkers were added to make players think more about a shot.
Still, with the course lying on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, mother nature always plays its part with possible fog this time of year, rain, and wind. For this year, despite the area getting over 5 inches of rain in the last month, and for this week, the weather is going to be very unlike San Diego weather. Temperatures will be very mild on Thursday. It will only get up to 60 degrees on Friday, 64, with it getting as high as 68 over the weekend. Each day will have cloudy weather but the great news for the players is very little wind. Friday will be the highest at 10 mph, as the other days it will be in the 7 to 9 mph which is very low for the Farmers. So look for low scores again.

Driving is essential in looking at Torrey South’s stats last year. The course ranked 29th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and 7th in driving accuracy. Winner Max Homa ranked 55th in driving distance and T-9th in driving accuracy

Here is a look at the driving average at Torrey South for the last few years:
*2022 – Torrey South ranked 31st in driving distance and 9th in driving accuracy.
Winner Luke List was 12th in driving distance and T-44th (29 of 54) in accuracy.
*2021 –Torrey South ranked 25th in driving distance and 7th in driving accuracy.
Winner Patrick Reed was T-52nd in driving distance and T-9th (36 of 54) in accuracy.
*2020 – Torrey South ranked T-17th in driving distance and 8th in driving accuracy.
Winner Marc Leishman was T-34th in driving distance and T-58th (27 of 54) in accuracy.
*2019 – Torrey South ranked 32nd in driving distance and 1st in driving accuracy.
Winner Justin Rose was 11th in driving distance and T-8th (35 of 54) in accuracy.
So driving it far and straight is important.

Another vital stat is greens in regulation which translates to Strokes gained Tee-to-Green
Last year the field hit an average of 59.12% of the greens and ranked 10th. Hitting greens is very important, and as we can see, only about 6 in 10 greens are hit, compared to the Plantation Course at Kapalua, in which 82.03% are hit. So this is important in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, which is one of our top stats to look for. Last year’s winner, Max Homa, ranked T-3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 53 of 72 greens as he finished 1st for the week in Strokes Gaine Tee-to-Green, gaining 3.5 per round.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at Torrey South and how it corresponds to the winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Torrey South ranked T-16th in Greens in Regulation. Winner Luke List was T-11th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 53 of 72 greens, and was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 2.48 shots per round.
*2021 –Torrey South ranked 13th in Greens in Regulation. Winner Patrick Reed was T-63rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 44 of 72 greens, and was 12th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 1.93 shots per round.
*2020 – Torrey South ranked 13th in Greens in Regulation. Winner Marc Leishman was T-14th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens, and was 16th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 1.14 shots per round.
*2019 – Torrey South ranked 21st in Greens in Regulation. Winner Justin Rose was T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 greens, and was 7th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 1.77 shots per round.

Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. The Poa Annua greens have the reputation as some of the hardest greens on tour to putt. Poa is a weed that makes the greens hard to putt, especially in the late afternoon and with a lot of people walking on them. So it’s very challenging to make putts under ten feet. Last year, Torrey South’s greens were the hardest course on tour in making putts inside ten feet in, as only 84.62% of those putts were made. In comparison the Seaside course at Sea Island Resort in the RSM Classic saw the most putts inside of ten feet made with 89.59%. For the winner, Max Homa, he ranked 28th in putting inside ten feet, making 43 of 49 tries inside ten feet (87.76%).

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet at Torrey South and how it corresponds for the winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Torrey South ranked 2nd in Putting inside Ten Feet with (85.98%) of the putts made.
Winner Luke List was 59th in Putting inside Ten Feet with 43 of 51 (84.31%) of the putts made.
*2021 – Torrey South ranked 2nd in Putting inside Ten Feet with (83.95%) of the putts made.
Winner Patrick Reed was 7th in Putting inside Ten Feet with 47 of 52 (90.381%) of the putts made.
*2020 – Torrey South ranked 2nd in Putting inside Ten Feet with (84.66%) of the putts made.
Winner Marc Leishman was 28th in Putting inside Ten Feet with 44 of 51 (86.27%) of the putts made.
2019 – Torrey South ranked 4th in Putting inside Ten Feet with (86.00%) of the putts made.
Winner Justin Rose was T-39th in Putting inside Ten Feet with 46 of 53 (86.79%) of the putts made.
In 2018, Jason Day shined in this stat, ranking 1st in the field, making 49 of 51 tries for the week.

Our last category is scrambling mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, and Torrey is adamant about getting it up and down. Last year it ranked 3rd hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens missing 50.41% of the time

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet at Torrey South and how it corresponds for the winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Torrey South ranked 18th in scrambling as players got it up and down (57.17%) of the time.
Winner Luke List was T-6th in Scrambling as he was able to get it up and down 78.95% of the 19 greens he missed.
*2021 – Torrey South ranked 5th in scrambling as players got it up and down (51.99%) of the time.
Winner Patrick Reed was 5th in Scrambling as he was able to get it up and down 81.25% of the 28 greens he missed.
*2020 – Torrey South ranked 4th in scrambling as players got it up and down (54.00%) of the time.
Winner Marc Leishman was T-4th in Scrambling as he was able to get it up and down 75.00% of the 20 greens he missed.
*2019 – Torrey South ranked 15th in scrambling as players got it up and down (57.05%) of the time.
Winner Justin Rose was 58th in Scrambling as he was able to get it up and down 56.25% of the 16 greens he missed.

Both courses at Torrey Pines are very unique and offer a different challenge to the pros. The combination of being on the Pacific Ocean, along with greens that are not only hard to hit but hard to putt, make up the charm for the course. On top of that, weather that in most cases is perfect and the scenic nature of the course are some of the reasons players love to play in this event.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you must hit the driver off most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat; before 2018, it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top ten on tour between 2011 and 2017. But in 2018 it ranked 19th, in 2019 it was 15th, in 2020 it was 4th, in 2021 it ranked 5th hardest on tour. Last year it ranked 18th on the PGA Tour.

97 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the player stats for the Farmers

DraftKings tips

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 American Express, a total of 60 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly:
  • Xander Schauffele – $10,600
  • Patrick Cantlay – $10,500
  • Collin Morikawa – $10,200
  • Max Homa – $10,100
  • Sungjae Im – $9,900
  • Ludvig Aberg – $9,700
  • Jason Day – $9,500
  • Tony Finau – $9,300
  • Min Woo Lee – $9,100
  • Eric Cole – $9,000

The folks at DraftKings have given us a lot of good choices this week.  First, you have Xander Schauffele at $10,600.  He has always struggled in this event, even though he grew up in the area and played the course as a junior.  He says that most of the time, he has played well because he seemed to get sick the week of the Farmers.  He did finish T-2nd in the Farmers in 2021 and later in the summer was T-7th when the U.S. Open was played on it.  I think his game is too good right now to pass on him, yes he could win because the course is good for his style of play.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,500 is a big no for me, not playing well right now and never have played well on the course, take a pass on him this week.  For Collin Morikawa at $10,200, this could be his week.  Playing great with his new coach, putting has improved, and with each round, you can see his excitement of playing again and feel he could be a winner this week.  Max Homa at $10,100 is always worth the money when playing in California.  He has played great since finishing T-21st at the Rocket Mortgage.  His last eight starts haven’t been worse than T-14th, so yes, I have to think about him this week.

Another person who is hot, Sungjae Im at $9,900, is worth the cost, and you have to think he will be in the top 15.  He is due for a win, hard to believe he hasn’t won since the 2021 Shriners Children’s.  Ludvig Aberg at $9,700 is a tough call, said to pass on him at the Sony and he finished T-30th.  I feel the course would suit his game, but I’m worried he may struggle on the poa greens.  Jason Day at $9,500 is a good call in this event, he has won it twice and plays well most of the time at Torrey.  Don’t think you can go wrong with him.  Tony Finau at $9,300 is the same call, he was T-9th last year was T-2nd in 2021, just wondering if he is playing good right now.  Min Woo Lee at $9,100, is way overpriced; playing in this event for the first time and could struggle, take a pass on him.  Eric Cole at $9,000 is a tossup bet, yes he is playing well, but don’t think the course and greens will be in his favor.  So be careful with him.

I like this feature where we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players who play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the start of the 2022 season to see how they do in making cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.

  • Sungjae Im made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,900
  • Robby Shelton made 3 cuts in 3 starts for a 100.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,600
  • Gary Woodland made 12 cuts in 13 starts for a 92.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,000
  • Tony Finau made 8 cuts in 9 starts for a 88.9% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,300
  • Brandt Snedeker made 11 cuts in 13 starts for a 84.6% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,200
  • Keegan Bradley made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,900
  • Hideki Matsuyama made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,500
  • Joseph Bramlett made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,800
  • Lanto Griffin made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,800
  • Maverick McNealy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,900
  • Luke List made 7 cuts in 9 starts for a 77.8% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,800
  • Sepp Straka made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,600
  • Shane Lowry made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,900
  • Justin Rose made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,300
  • Chez Reavie made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,400
  • Michael Kim made 5 cuts in 7 starts for a 71.4% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,300
  • Harris English made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0% total.  His DrafKings cost is $8,800
  • Jhonattan Vegas made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,700
  • Martin Laird made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,300
  • Billy Horschel made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,400
  • Jason Day made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $9,500
  • Francesco Molinari made 4 cuts in 6 starts for a 66.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $6,700
  • Adam Svensson made 2 cuts in 3 starts for a 66.7% total.  His DrafKings cost is $7,600

(The ones in bold are what I think is a great bargain.)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Keegan Bradley at $8,900, is a very savvy pick.  His record is pretty good at the Farmers, he has three top-ten in 12 starts, including a 2nd last year.  He played well at Sony, losing in the playoff. Sahith Theegala at $8,700 is also a good pick, his numbers are good in 2023, he was T-4th last year in his second Farmers start.  Adrian Meronk at $8,200, is coming in off of his runner-up finish in the Dubai Desert Classic and 10th at the Dubai Invitational.  He had a great year in Europe and will play well on the PGA Tour starting this week.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,000 is a great price for a guy who has played great in the last six months, including a runner-up finish last week at the Amex.  Luke List at $7,800 is a great bargain for a guy who will make the cut and give you a top-25 finish.  He won this event in 2022 and could do it again.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

Ryan Fox at $7,500, is another from the DP World Tour that is playing on the PGA Tour in 2024.  Has played great ever since winning the BMW PGA Championship last September.  Taylor Montgomery at $7,400 is also a good choice, was T-11th in 2022 and T-31st last year at Torrey, he has been on a consistent roll since September.  Adam Schenk at $7,300 is a good, cheap choice to make the cut and get you some points.  The same with Davis Thompson at $7,200 he hasn’t missed a cut since July and has been rolling along.  Gary Woodland at $7,000 is a good choice at Torrey Pines, he has made 13 of 14 cuts and in coming back from brain surgery will be looking to get into the swing of things.  Ben Kohles at $7,000 is fresh off of his great year on the Korn Ferry Tour, and I can see him doing well this week.  Sam Stevens at $7,000 has played well this month but had terrible final rounds, he was T-13th last year at Torrey.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open

The key stat for the winner:

The South course can be stretched to over 7,750 yards, but look for something other than that length, although some tees will be back.  Driving will play an important role this week; fairways will be wet with minimal running after a lot of rain last week.  Look for those that do well in the total driving stat, which combines distance and accuracy.  The course has prided itself on heavy U.S. Open rough in the past few years, making it challenging to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway.  Last year, the south course was 3rd in rough proximity, while in 2014 and ’15, the course was the hardest in proximity to the hole, and in 2016, it was 2nd.  Last year, players in the rough averaged getting it 53 feet, 4 inches to the hole.  I see the same happening this year, so keeping it in the fairway is best.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:
  • The course was revamped and toughened 23 years ago, plus the renovation since the 2019 event, so you know it has a “U.S. Open feel” to it.  In past years, this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on, as between 1992 and 2008, all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen (in 1995, he did win a senior major?).  Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011.  Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012, but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winner’s circle.  2015, Jason Day won, but it would be seven months before he won his first major at the PGA Championship.  2019 Rose won, and in 2021, Patrick Reed won; both are major champions, so you have to look at those who have won as players with an added edge.
  • One record that got broken in 2017 was Jon Rahm winning.  It was Rahm’s first start in the Farmers, and he had never won on the PGA Tour, so he killed two birds with one stone, a first-time PGA Tour winner and a Farmers rookie winner.  Now Rahm joined two others to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.  The last rookie PGA Tour winner was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake, who won on the PGA Tour for the first time in his fifth Farmers start.  He joined Greg Twiggs, who in 1989 played his second Farmers and won his first PGA Tour victory, so in the 67-year history of the Farmers, there are three first-time PGA Tour winners at the Farmers.  But that leaves one record left to Rahm, kind of.  Rahm is the only player to win the Farmers on his first start unless you count that Ted Kroll did the same thing in 1952.  The only thing Kroll was playing in the first Farmers event, so in a way, you can’t count that since it was the first one, so Rahm is the holder of one of the unique records on the PGA Tour.
  • Greens classified as “bumpy” may play a role in determining the champion.  People who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen.  Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua has returned to almost 99% of the greens.  If it gets foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy.  Again, patience will be the key here.  There is a reason the greens are the hardest to putt on the PGA Tour, and more putts from 3 to 6 feet are missed on it.
  • The list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event.  Look for the player who can get it up and down to win.  Last year, it ranked 3rd; in previous years, it ranked 5th in 2022; in 2017 and 2016, it ranked 2nd in scrambling.  In 2015, it ranked 10th; in 2014, it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top nine for the last 13 years.
  • One round is played on Torrey North, a course that will be 507 yards shorter this year than the South.  In 2016, it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course.  In 2022, it was three and a half shots easier; last year, a half a shot under par. To win, the player needs to play great in his round on the North.  Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North course, and except for six years, they have shot in the 60s, with 22 of the 38 shooting 67 or under.  Last year, Max Homa started with a 68 on the north course, the same with Luke List in 2022. He shot 68 in the second round on the North course.  In 2021, Patrick Reed started his week by shooting 64 on the North Course.  In 2020, Marc Leishman shot 68 on the North Course in his first round.  In 2019, Justin Rose shot 63 on the North Course to begin the tournament.  In 2018, Jason Day shot 64 on the North Course, while in 2017, Jon Rahm shot 69.  In 2016, Brandt Snedeker shot 70. In 2015, Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven under on that course and 2 under on the South Course.  So, look for the champion to go low on the North Course.
  • With California-born Max Homa winning the Farmers in 2023, it brought up what used to be a great trivia question on how it seemed that those born, raised, going to school, lived, and died in California won the Farmers.  Before Luke List, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, and Scott Stallings, Californians came out on top at the Farmers. In the 26 Farmers between 1988 and 2013. 18 of the winners had California roots. The winners were Steve Pate, Greg Twiggs, Phil Mickelson, Craig Stadler, Mark O’Meara, Scott Simpson, Tiger Woods, John Daly and Nick Watney. Of the 71 Farmers who played, 25 have roots in California, including players like Gene Littler, Bob Rosburg, and Billy Casper. Max Homa joined the list in 2023; he was born in Burbank, California, and attended college in Berkeley.  You may wonder why this stat is important.  Poa annua is a grass found mainly in California that gives those who play and know the grass a unique advantage, so it’s essential.

Who to watch for at the Farmers Insurance Open

Best Bets:

Collin Morikawa

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
3 T21

This could be his week. He is playing great with his new coach, putting has improved, and with each round, you can see his excitement of playing great again and feel he could be a winner this week.

Jason Day

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T7 T3 CUT T16 T5 Win CUT CUT Win T2 T9

He has won it twice and plays well most of the time at Torrey. Don’t think you can go wrong with him, his game looked close in his last couple of starts.

Sungjae Im

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T4 T6 T32 T36 T52

Is hot, hot, hot right now, and you have to think he will be in the top 15. He is due for a win, hard to believe he hasn’t won since the 2021 Shriners Children’s.

Best of the rest:

Xander Schauffele

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T13 T34 T2 CUT T25 CUT CUT CUT

He has always struggled in this event, even though he grew up in the area and played the course as a junior. He says that most of the time, he has played sick during the week of the Farmers. He did finish T-2nd in the Farmers in 2021 and later in the summer was T-7th when the U.S. Open was played on it. I think his game is too good right now to pass on him, yes he could win because the course is good for his style of play.

Max Homa

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
Win CUT T18 T9 CUT CUT CUT

He is always worth the money when playing in California. Has played great since finishing T-21st at the Rocket Mortgage. His last eight starts haven’t been worse than T-14th, so yes, I have to think about him this week.

Keegan Bradley

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
2 T65 T16 T35 5 T4 CUT T41 T16 CUT T22

Is a very savvy pick. His record is pretty good at the Farmers, he has three top-ten in 12 starts, including a 2nd last year. Played well at Sony, losing in the playoff.

Adrian Meronk

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
First time playing in this event

He is coming in off of his runner-up finish in the Dubai Desert Classic and 10th at the Dubai Invitational. He had a great year in Europe and will play well on the PGA Tour starting this week

Solid contenders

Tony Finau

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T9 CUT T2 T6 T13 T6 T4 T18 T24

He was T-9th last year and was T-2nd in 2021, and I’m just wondering if he is playing well right now.

Sahith Theegala

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T4 T25

His numbers are good in 2023, he was T-4th last year in his second Farmers start.

Luke List

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T25 Win T10 T36 T40 T12 CUT CUT T68

He won this event in 2022 and could do it again.

Taylor Montgomery

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T31 T11

He was T-11th in 2022 and T-31st last year at Torrey, and he has been on a consistent roll since September.

Long shots that could come through:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T46

Has played great in the last six months, including a runner-up finish last week at the Amex.

Ryan Fox

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
First time playing in this event

He is another from the DP World Tour who is playing on the PGA Tour in 2024. He has played great ever since winning the BMW PGA Championship last September, and this course is perfect for his game.

Adam Schenk

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T20 T56 CUT T57 CUT

Has played consistently for over a year now. He may surprise us at Torrey.

Ben Kohles

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT CUT

Is fresh off of his great year on the Korn Ferry Tour, and I can see him doing well this week.

Sam Stevens

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
T13

Has played well this month but had terrible final rounds, he was T-13th last year at Torrey.

Not this week:

Patrick Cantlay

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT T51 CUT

He is a big no for me; he is not playing well right now and has never played well at Torrey; take a pass on him this week.

Ludvig Aberg

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
First time playing in this event

Is a tough call; I said to pass on him at the Sony, and he finished T-30th. I feel the course would suit his game, but I’m worried he may struggle on the poa greens.

Eric Cole

2024 ’23 ’22 ’21 ’20 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12
CUT

Yes, he is playing well, but I don’t think the course and greens will be in his favor. So be careful with him.

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