BlogAT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The first four winners of the year have been significant surprises. The last two winners have been complete surprises when you consider that Nick Dunlap was just a freshman at Alabama this time last year, while Matthieu Pavon struggled to stay on the DP World Tour and got his first win just last October.

This week, we have a reimagined AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am. Have to think that its tournament founder is lashing in his grave as the heart and soul of the event, and its celebrity players are no longer a part of the event. No more Bill Murray or Kevin Costner or Andy Garcia. Yes, you will see some football and baseball players who are in the amateur field, but things have drastically changed. The celebrity portion was growing old and cumbersome. On top of that, they had to play three different courses, and most of the marquee professionals were taking the week off. Things have changed; this week, the PGA Tour has designated this a signature event in which the best of the best are in the field. There will be 80 pros playing two courses in a no-cut event with $3.6 million as the first prize. The first two days, they will rotate between Pebble and Spyglass Hill; each pro will have an amateur partner. After 36 holes, the amateurs are out, and the 80 pros will play at Pebble Beach. Yes, it will be different not having all of the celebrities, but this has now become a big-time event played on one of the iconic courses in Golf.

Now, golf has seen another drastic shift as Tyrrell Hatton has decided to play LIV golf instead of the PGA Tour, and many changes are ahead. I was going to write about it, but we have to be fair; this is the amount which players we like this week at Pebble Beach. I may draft some thoughts on what is happening later in the week.

How about the weather for the week?

For years, the weather for AT&T has had its share of terrible conditions. In 2020, it was one of those perfect years of sunshine and temperatures in the mid-60s. 2021 saw mostly cloudy skies with rain on Saturday and windy conditions every day; it never got above 60. In 2022, the event had perfect conditions with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to high 60s. Last year saw terrible conditions the first three days between rain and wind gusts up to 30 to 36 mph. The weather got so bad it backed things up, and they had to finish on Monday.

This year won’t be any better. It’s been raining hard since Sunday night, and the showers will be around for the first three days. If that needs to be better, not only will there be rain on Sunday, but winds up to 30 mph will make things interesting.   So this will create a different scenario in which players who hit it longer will have an advantage, plus those mudders will have a golden opportunity this week.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,972 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 74.4 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees Pebble Beach Golf Links is a resort and open to the public.

The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, its 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.

Despite the official name, the course is not a real links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline, and it’s these holes that distinguish Pebble Beach.

In prepping Pebble for the 2019 U.S. Open in 2015 the 17th green was modified and rebuilt, over the summer in 2016 the 14th green went through a severe change.  The green doesn’t have the drastic elevation change in the front, back right.  The bunker is still deep and tough, making the green a bit flatter and having more pin places.  In 2017 the 13th hole saw the green rebuilt to create a hole location on the right side of the green and a bunker was put in to the left of the green.

The course used this year:

• Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 7,041 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 148 from the championship tees.  The course resorts and open to the public.

Last year Spyglass played to a 72.80 average and was 8th hardest course on tour.

The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966.  The course was the built thanks to Samuel Morse who had initially thought of creating it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach.  The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club, but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill.  That was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson who got his inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.

Spyglass is a mix of several different courses.  The first five holes go down through dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific.  The next couple of holes play back into the pines, still offering ocean views.  The last nine you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away, the holes play through Monterey pines.  Spyglass is a different course than Pebble.  While the greens at Pebble are small, those at Spyglass are large and undulating.  Weather is a big part of Pebble, while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass that is just a couple miles away could be calm.  When Spyglass first opened up it annually would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy and would be among the hardest courses on Tour.  It’s still one of the toughest courses on tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.

The big advantage of playing Spyglass Hill is after the first six holes, that last 12 holes are protected from wind which helps on windy days.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at Pebble Beach:

For the first time, we have a key fantasy article for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am. In past years, Pebble has only been used for two rounds, but with it being a signature event and using only two courses, it now warrants looking to see what kind of player could win at Pebble.

Pebble Beach is on the Monterey Peninsula, 120 miles south of San Francisco. Pebble is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world and is a course loved by different organizations as it’s not only the yearly site of a PGA Tour event but also a Champions Tour event along with holding the U.S. Open, PGA Championship, and U.S. Womans Open.

The land was owned by Samuel Morse, the nephew of the telegraph and Morse code inventor. Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Penisula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront, for $1.3 million in 1915. Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties Company and envisioned a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay. Morse built his golf course instead of selling the oceanfront property for homesites. One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville, who won the California Amateur Championship. Even though Neville had never built a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design. Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him with the project, and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
In 1918, the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition, the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision. Neville and Grant softened it up, and in 1919, it was again open for play.

Over the next ten years, the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928, H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter, and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur. Since then, the course has remained the same, except for redesigning the fifth hole, which is undoubtedly an endorsement of Neville and Grant’s sound design.

Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay. They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th and 18th. The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf. It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards. Many call it the greatest finishing hole in golf, but the changes in equipment have ravished it. Before 2000, nobody would dare try to reach the green in two, but now about half the pros can go for the green in two. The next time the USGA returns to Pebble in 2027 for the U.S. Open.
Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, including four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018), the 1989 Nabisco Championship, and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am, which at one time was the Bing Crosby. Pebble has one distinction: it is the first public course to hold the U.S. Open. Since then, Pinehurst, Bethpage, and Torrey Pines have joined the rota, with Chambers Bay and Erin Hills holding U.S. Opens in 2015 and ’17.

The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest used on the PGA Tour. The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.

So what does this mean for you who are trying to make a pick for this week or if you are looking for six winners in your DraftKings picks? If you look at the scoring average for Pebble, it’s been around its par of 72. Last year, it was 71.53 and was the 21st hardest course of the year. In 2022, it was 70.76, and the 35th hardest course. In 2021, it was 71.20, and the 29th hardest, while in 2020, it was 72.52 and the 8th hardest course of the year on the PGA Tour. Now, for the U.S. Open, Pebble plays to a par of 71; in 2019, it played at 72.24, and in 2010, it played at 74.98. So what brings the discrepancy in the scoring average? The time of year, the AT&T is played in February as the course is usually wet with all the rain. The course is also a lot lusher with all the previous months’ rain. In June, the course is dry and plays fast; winds play a significant role in making the course harder, along with how the USGA sets up courses.

So, with that said, how can we judge this course? One thing we are going to do is use only strokes-gained stats. It’s not that stats like driving accuracy or greens in regulation don’t work, but strokes gained are more defining and will help us pick players better.
Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. Driving distance is always essential, but many players will need to throttle back this week, so getting it in the fairway is important, and the closure you get to the greens is better but unnecessary. Last year, AT&T, Pebble was the shortest driving course on the PGA Tour, with the average drive going just 270.9 yards per drive. As for driving accuracy, 66.25% of the fairways were hit, as it was the 11th easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. Last year’s winner, Justin Rose, hit 36 out of 54 fairways, which ranked T-44th, and his average drive was 282.1, which ranked 45th. So for the week, Rose was 55th in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee. One thing about Pebble with the small greens is if you miss a fairway, you will not get it on the green, so you can see hitting it straight is essential.
Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you have very few targets with 3,500 square foot greens. Last year at the AT&T, 65.73% of the greens were hit, which ranked the course as 25th. For winner Rose, he hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-34th. So, for Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, Rose ranked 14th.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained around the green because players will miss greens and, to win, have to get it up and down. Last year, with 34.27% of the greens missed, 55.09% of the players got it up and down, ranking Pebble the 11th hardest course to scramble on. As for Rose, of the 22 greens he missed, he got it up and down on 18 of them to rank T-4th in scrambling and 4th in Strokes Gained around the green.
Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because that is going to be very important for players this week. Last year, Rose was 3rd in putting average, T-5th in one putt, and T-11th in 3 putting. He ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Putting.
The one thing we can’t stress more is that there is no known stat for, and that is playing it smart. Many great players, from Tiger to Jack to Tom Watson to Billy Casper to Sam Snead and Bryon Nelson, have won at Pebble. So look over the stats, and you can see you can narrow the 80 in the field down to about 30, and from there, look who have great minds in thinking around a golf course, and you will have your winner.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: Takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interst of interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Number of strokes gained from shots around the green, lot of it is scrambling and bunker play.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

This is the 77 of the 80 players from this year’s field with PGA Tour stats from 2023.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to the key fantasy page with all the player’s stats

DraftKings tips

We have put together a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii, a total of 59 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, and the players’ average points earned per event and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,500
• Scottie Scheffler – $11,400
• Viktor Hovland – $10,200
• Xander Schauffele – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
• Justin Thomas – $9,600
• Jordan Spieth – $9,400
• Max Homa – $9,200
• Colin Morikawa – $9,100
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,000

So we have the best of the best, so it’s all about going through these folks and finding value players, those that will do well for the least amount of money. DraftKings’ first choice is Rory McIlroy at $11,500, and he won last week in Dubai, but I don’t see him winning this week. Rory has played in three events at Pebble; he missed the cut in the 2010 U.S. Open. In his only AT&T start, he also missed the cut in 2018. It was not a total loss; he finished T-9th at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble. A lot is going on right now with LIV golf and other things, I think McIlroy will be preoccupied with all of this, and I don’t think he will play well. The bad weather should help him, but I still don’t like him this year. Scottie Scheffler at $11,400, and of course, he consistently earns a lot of DraftKings points. Even finishing T-17th at the American Express, he made 11.5 points, which is a lot. So unless he has a total collapse, you can count on many points from him. Scheffler has never played in an event at Pebble, which could be a disadvantage. As for the two courses, they are perfect for Scheffler, and he should be picked, even at the high cost. Viktor Hovland at $10,200 is a gamble; Hovland is like McIlroy, preoccupied with LIV Golf stuff, and may not be his sharpest. He was T-13th last year and T-38th in 2020. As an amateur in 2019, he was T-12th at the U.S. Open. I will take a pass on Viktor this week. Xander Schauffele, at $10,000, is another player hard to judge; he was T-66th at the 2017 AT&T but was T-3rd at the U.S. Open in 2019. Xander plays well in poor weather and has played well this year, he is a good choice. Patrick Cantlay at $9,700. Patrick Cantlay at $9,700, has always been a great choice at Pebble. He was T-4th in 2022, T-3rd in 2021 and T-11th in 2020. At the U.S. Open in 2019, he was T-21st.  But I don’t like him this week; not only has he struggled with his game in 2024, but I don’t think Cantlay’s game plays well in rain and wind, so I am passing on him despite his excellent record in this event. Justin Thomas at $9,600, is another enigma; he is playing well and was T-3rd at the American Express and 3rd at the Hero. But has limited Pebble experience, missing the cut in his only AT&T start in 2014 and missing the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open. I don’t like him in poor weather, so I am passing on him. Jordan Spieth at $9,400 is one of the best buys. He checks off everything, plays well in poor weather, and has played well of late, including 3rd at the Sentry and 6th at the Hero. The thing that takes him over the top is his play at Pebble. Yes, he was T-63rd last year, but was 2nd in 2022, T-3rd in 2021, and T-9th in 2020. Spieth has six top tens in 11 starts, including a win in 2017. I think he is a perfect pick. Another great pick is Max Homa at $9,200. He has won three of the five California events. He needs the American Express and this event to complete the California slam. Many will not think about Homa because he last played at the AT&T in 2021, when he was T-7th. In 2020, he was T-14th and T-10th in 2019. Now, for the year, he was T-13th at the Farmers and T-14th at the Sentry, so many will pass over him. I think he is motivated to put another “W” next to his name on a California course. Colin Morikawa at $9,100 is a big no for me. He has never played in the AT&T but was T-35th at the U.S. Open in 2019. I don’t like Morikawa this week because last week, he was close to the lead after he birdied the sixth hole on Friday. His game fell apart after that, his putting was a mess, and Morikawa missed the cut. So it’s best to forget about him this week. Ludvig Aberg at $9,000 has never played at Pebble, which may be a problem. He was T-9th at the Farmers last week, but I don’t like him this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Tony Finau at $8,800 is a good choice. He has limited experience at Pebble; in two starts, his best finish was T-23rd way back in 2017. His game is in good shape this week, and he could be a good pick. Cameron Young at $8,700 is worth looking at. He has never played at Pebble, but he is a streaky player; at Dubai, he was 3rd, which is a sign that he will play well this week. Tommy Fleetwood at $8,600 is someone to watch, he won three weeks in Dubai and has played well of late. Usually, I am a big fan of Jason Day, who is at $8,400. In 13 AT&T starts has made 13 cuts with eight top-ten finishes, including a runner-up in 2018. What bothers me is the way Day has played of late; he missed the cut at Torrey last week and was T-34th at the American Express. With the weather being the way it is, it is best to skip him this week. I think Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,200 is a reasonable price. He missed the cut last year at Pebble but was T-6th in 2022. He was T-12th at Pebble in the 2019 U.S. Open, but after finishing T-14th at the Sentry, he missed the Sony Open cut. Still, the course and the weather could suit him this week.   Nicolai Hojgaard at $8,100 is a good buy. He was 2nd last week at Pebble and T-7th the week before in Dubai, yes worth the trouble. As for Tom Kim at $8,000, I have a feeling about him. He never played at Pebble, but his record is excellent in poor conditions; over the summer, he was T6th at the Scottish Open and T-2nd the following week at the Open Championship. Byeong Hun An at $8,000 is a great buy, he was T-37th last year in his only AT&T start. He also was T-16th at the U.S. Open at Pebble. I like him because of his excellent play of late, he was 4th at the Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. Keegan Bradley, at $7,700, could be a good choice, he was T-11th in his only AT&T start back in 2011. He did miss the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open, but like his game, that holds up in poor weather. Denny McCarthy, at $7,500, is also worth a look at. He has played well at Pebble and was T-4th last year and T-12th in 2022. Has played solidly in 2024.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

So, who are our bargains for the week? There aren’t many, so you better be careful in spending for the star players. Also, it’s best to find someone that is cheap and excels at Pebble. Someone like Eric Cole at $7,300; he was T-15th last year at AT&T.  Nick Taylor, at $7,200, is also great. He won the AT&T in 2020 and has made the cut in his previous five starts. Yes, missed the cut at the American Express but was T-7th at the Sony Open. Another great buy you must take is Kevin Yu at $7,200. His only start at the AT&T was T-7th last year, but for 2024 he was T-3rd at the American Express and T-6th at the Farmers. I know he has a lot of pressure on him, but getting Nick Dunlap at $6,900 is worth the gamble. Taylor Montgomery at $6,800 is also a good value for this person who has not played in the AT&T. His game has come around; he has made the cut in his last seven events and was T-13th at the Farmers. Last on my list is Maverick McNealy at $6,200. He grew up at Pebble and was runner-up in 2021. He is getting over a shoulder problem, and his game has improved; he was T-37th last week at Torrey.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Key stat for the winner:

• The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some particular problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners. Another problem is the luck of the draw; someone could be playing at Spyglass, which is tree-lined on the last 12 holes and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some players encounter at Pebble Beach, which in places is tree-less and could get clobbered by the wind. For some that play in the late afternoon, the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict. So, it takes a particular breed of player to endure this.
• Mixed news: the weather will be terrible during the event, with rain possible and winds each day. So, if you are on Pebble’s ocean holes, you will feel the winds while those at Spyglass will be protected.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Except for Brett Ogle in 1993, Dustin Johnson in 2009, and Nick Taylor in 2020, those who won at Pebble were veteran players. A perfect example is last year’s winner, Justin Rose. The point here is don’t look for inexperienced players winning here; in its history going back to 1950, only one pro won on his first visit to Pebble, which was Ogle. In 2019, 48-year-old Phil Mickelson won for the fifth time. But on the other end of the spectrum, Daniel Berger won in 2021 at the age of 27; the previous year, Nick Taylor won for the first time at 31 and has been around since 2008. In 2022, Tom Hoge shocked the golfing world by winning the AT&T at 23 after spending seven years struggling.
• Could we expect a rookie or a person with minimal experience to win this week? Look at D.A. Points in 2011; he missed three out of four cuts before winning. Some could call this a flunk; having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him, and without Murray, Points probably would have never won. In 2016, Vaughn Taylor saved his career with a victory that surprised many. In 2018, Ted Potter, Jr. won in his ninth start. It wasn’t that great of a year; he missed the cut in five events, and his best finish was T-13th before winning at Pebble.
• Also, look at Dustin Johnson; in 2009, Johnson was a surprise winner because he won due to the weather, reducing the event to 54 holes; it’s always easy to win a tournament that you lead after 54 holes.   This type of player, the guy you least expect to win, will win this week.
• The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 is that none of the first-round leaders went on to win. However, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005; 8 of the last 16 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011, were in the lead after the first day. In 2015, Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round. In 2016, it was back to normal as Taylor was way back after the first and second rounds and six back of the 54-hole leader, But in 2017, Jordan Spieth had the lead after every round, the first player to have the outright lead after every round since Mickelson did it in 2015. In 2020, Nick Taylor shot a first-round 63 to take the lead and never looked back, leading after every round. In 2021, Daniel Berger opened with a 67 and was T-11th before he went crazy, shooting 66-72-65 to win. In 2022, Tom Hoge shot 63 to lead after the first round and never looked back to win by two shots.
• One streak that is on the line and looking to stay intact is that in the previous 64 years of American Express, nobody has ever won AT&T and American Express in the same year. Amex winner Nick Dunlap is playing, but the record is safe for another year.
• Putting is always a key at AT&T, especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon. Those that can deal with it will be ahead of the game mentally.
• Look for someone who hits many greens or putts very well to win. He also has to play very well over the weekend, which is the key to the rest of the winners. Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Putting becomes vital in winning because of that, and the greens at Pebble do not have many undulations. In making putts between 4 and 8 feet, it has ranked one of the hardest courses on tour 8 of the last 15 years; last year, it ranked 3rd; in 2022, it ranked 4th. In 2021, it ranked 1st while. In 2020, it ranked 3rd. It was 1st in 2019, 10th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, and 3rd in 2016. In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 1st last year and in 2019, 6th in 2018, 4th in both 2017 and in 2016, 15th in 2015, but first in 2014.
• Lastly and very importantly, to win, you must make sure you play well at Spyglass Hill. That is the hardest of the courses, and a good round there gives you a significant advantage. A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson; he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering its scoring record, and could build upon that great round. To show how important it is to play well at Spyglass, since 2015, every winner except for one shot in the 60s has been at Spyglass. The only one not in the 60s was Ted Potter, Jr. in 2018, who shot 71. Last year, Justin Roe shot 69 at Spyglass Hill.