Genesis Invitational Key Fantasy Stats

Genesis Invitational

February 15th – 18th, 2024

Riviera C.C.

Pacific Palisades, CA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,322

Purse: $20 million

with $4 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jon Rahm

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on Riviera’s most important stats, based on data from last year’s Genesis Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
The scoring average of Riviera’s field last year was 71.07, and it ranked 17th hardest on Tour out of 58 courses.

The field’s scoring average on TPC Scottsdale last year was 70.98, which is just about par. The course was the 18th hardest on the PGA Tour in 2023 out of 58 courses.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the WM Phoenix Open winners for the last few years:
2022 – The average was 70.46, and it was the 21st hardest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – The average was 71.27, the 17th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 71.26, was 10th hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 71.20, was 10th hardest of 49 courses that year
It’s impressive how close each of the year’s scoring averages is. Now, what controls this is the weather. Of course, when one thinks of a tournament being played in Los Angeles, one thinks of great weather and nothing but sunshine. Many people believe that all the pros wear sunglasses to protect their eyes from the sun’s glare, but that’s not the case. Riviera is located in Pacific Palisades, just outside of Los Angeles, and the course is on top of a hill about a mile from the Pacific Ocean. So, during the day, it could be 85 degrees 15 miles away in Downtown Los Angeles but only 65 at Riviera. The weather can be vulnerable despite what you may think of Los Angeles in mid-February. In 2020, the weather couldn’t be better. The same was true in 2022 and ’23; the weather was perfect, thus low scores. But in 2021, on Saturday, inclement weather, including winds up to 35 mph, played havoc. Still, things were good the rest of the time, so the scoring average was around par. But in 2019, when the scoring average was 71.20 (ranked 10th), it was rainy the first two days as all four days it never got warmer than 62, and over the weekend, the winds blew between 10 and 25 mph. Same with 2018, when the scoring average was 71.76, the course ranked 9th hardest. Now, it doesn’t have to rain to make it play tough. In 2015, the course played hard; the average was 72.59 (ranked 5th hardest course for the year) as the course was dry and fast, with high winds during the tournament playing havoc for the players.
The good news after two weeks of solid rain affected both Pebble and Phoenix this year, just like at Torrey Pines for the Farmers, the weather at Riviera is going to be ok a bit cold with temperatures in the low 60s and winds in the ten mph range, with partly sunny skies all four days and no chance of rain. Now, the practice rounds will have rain, but that should clear out by Thursday. The one thing that this doesn’t help is short hitters, as the ball won’t fly as long.

Our first category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for Riviera over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 2nd in greens hit last year, 6th in Greens in Regulation in 2022, and 2nd in greens hit in 2021, which is the norm for any year of perfect weather. In 2020, it ranked 2nd; in 2019, it ranked 10th; while in 2018, it ranked 1st.
In driving accuracy, the course was 10th last year, 5th in 2022, 2nd in 2021, 4th in 2020, 12th in 2019, and 5th in 2018. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Jon Rahm ranked 12th in driving distance, averaging 302.1 yards per drive, was 63rd in Fairways hit and T-2nd in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Rahm was 3rd, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 28th.

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the Genesis Invitational winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 25th in driving distance with an average drive of 296.7 yards (out of 50 courses), 5th in driving accuracy, and 6th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Joaquin Niemann was 6th in driving distance, averaging 303.4 yards per drive, 58th in accuracy, hitting 25 of 54 fairways, and T-14th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 47 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 29th in driving distance with an average drive of 294.5 yards (out of 51 courses), 2nd in driving accuracy, and 3rd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Max Homa was T-26th in driving distance, averaging 296.7 yards per drive, T-3rd in accuracy, hitting 32 of 54 fairways, and T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 45 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – The course ranked 19th in driving distance with an average drive of 291.1 yards (out of 41 courses), 4th in driving accuracy, and 2nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Adam Scott was 8th in driving distance, averaging 300.9 yards per drive, T-63rd in accuracy, hitting 23 of 54 fairways, and 1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2019 – The course ranked 9th in driving distance with an average drive of 278.3 yards (out of 49 courses), 12th in driving accuracy, and 10th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner J.B. Holmes was 9th in driving distance, averaging 287.1 yards per drive, T-59th in accuracy, hitting 29 of 54 fairways, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 11th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second stat is Greens in Regulation. A critical thing for Riviera is getting the ball close from the fairway. In looking at the winners at Riviera, greens hit is something all the winners have in common. Since 2000, 18 of the 24 have been in the top 11, while nine of the 24 have been in the top three. Also, in the last eight years, seven of the eight have finished in the top-7 in Greens in regulation.
Last year, Riviera ranked 2nd out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 754.954% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, hit 51 of 72 greens (70.83%) and ranked T-2nd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Genesis invitational for the last few years:
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 58.81%, and was the 6th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Joaquin Niemann hit 47 of 72 greens (65.28%) and ranked T-24th.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 54.17% and was the 3rd hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Max Homa hit 45 of 72 greens (62.50%) and ranked T-5th.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 56.18%, and was the 2nd hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Adam Scott hit 52 of 72 greens (72.22%) and ranked 1st.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 61.06%, and was the 10th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner J.B. Holmes hit 52 of 72 greens (72.22%) and ranked T-2nd.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

Putting also showed that you have to putt well. This is because Riviera has probably the most problematic greens for players to putt on. With Poa Annua and close to the ocean, the greens, along with Pebble Beach two weeks ago, are some of the bumpiest on Tour. That is why the course ranked 4th last year on the PGA Tour, 6th in 2022, and 5th in 2021 in putting inside ten feet. In 2020, it ranked 3rd; in 2019, it ranked 2nd; in 2018, it ranked 4th in putting; while in 2017, it was 7th; it was 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2015. Last year, it ranked 4th in putting from 4 to 8 feet on the PGA Tour, 7th in 2022, 3rd in 2021, and 2nd in 2020. In 2019, it ranked 3rd, 6th in 2018, 4th in 2017, 2nd in 2016, and 1st in 2015. Putting is probably the 3rd most crucial stat for the players.

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet of the Genesis Invitational winners for the last few years:
2023 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.44% of the putts were made, as it was the 4th hardest of the 41 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Jon Rahm made 60 of 66 putts inside ten feet (90.91%) and ranked 16th.
2022 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.92% of the putts were made, which was the 6th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Joaquin Niemann made 62 of 69 putts inside ten feet (89.86%) and ranked 23rd.
2021 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.14% of the putts were made, which was the 5th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Max Homa hit 45 of 72 greens (62.50%) and ranked T-5th.
2020 – 85.10% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 3rd hardest of the 29 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Adam Scott made 62 of 74 putts inside ten feet (83.78%) and ranked 61st.
2019 – 85.33% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 2nd hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner J.B. Holmes made 61 of 68 putts inside ten feet (89.71%) and ranked 10th.
Yes, it’s tough making putts inside ten feet at Riviera.

Our last category is par five scoring. Riviera has three par 5s. one at 503 yards (the first), another at 583 yards (the 11th), and the 17th hole that plays at 590 yards. All three do play downwind and are scored why under par. So we can see how the last five champions have done on the par 5:
2023 – Jon Rahm played them in 10 under
2022 – Joaquin Niemann played then in 10 under
2021 – Max Homa played them in 11 under
2020 – Adam Scott played them in 5 under
2021 – J.B. Holmes played them in 3 under.

So, how did Riviera play on the par 5s in the last five years:
2023 – Course played to a 4.57 average and ranked T-38th out of 58 courses tracked
2022 – Course played to a 4.44 average and ranked T-46th out of 50 courses tracked
2021 – Course played to a 4.56 average and ranked T-38th out of 51 courses tracked
2020 – Course played to a 4.56 average and ranked 32nd out of 41 courses tracked
2019 – Course played to a 4.59 average and ranked T-29th out of 49 courses tracked

So what was the secret of the last six winners, and how they won?

So how did the winner Jon Rahm do last year, and what was the key to him winning? He only hit a few fairways, only 23, the lowest of any winner going back to 1997. He hit 51 of 72 greens, which ranked T-2nd, which helped him finish 1st in Strokes Gained Approach the Green. He was also 1st in Strokes Gained Total and 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. He won by two shots over Jon Rahm, but the key for Rahm was playing the last six holes in two under with birdies at 14 and 16. Another key, Rahm, played the par 3s in 8 under, a remarkable mark considering that it was the lowest total of any winner going back to 1997. The closest to him was J.B. Holmes, who played the par 3s in 6 under in 2019. On top of that, Rahm played the par 5s in 10 under.

So how did the winner, Joaquin Niemann, do in 2022? and what was the key to his winning? He only hit a few fairways, only 25, which is the lowest of any winner going back to 1997. He hit 47 of 72 greens, which ranked T-14th, and despite these poor stats, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Approach the Green and 2nd in Strokes Gained Around the Green. It makes sense that Niemann was 10th in Scrambling and had the lowest amount of putts with 102. He was 7 under on the par 4s and 10 under on the par 5s. But the big key for Niemann was shooting 63 in the first and second rounds for a two-shot lead and just holding on with a 68-71 finish.

So, how did the winner, Max Homa, do in 2021? It took a two-hole playoff for him to beat Tony Finau. He was a shot better than Sam Burns and three shots better than Cameron Smith, who finished 4th. So, how did Homa win? He was 2nd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 9th in Strokes Gained Around the Green. Homa hit a lot of fairways, 32 of 56 to rank 3rd and 45 of 72 greens to rank T-5th. Putting was good; yes, he was T-23rd in putting inside ten feet, but he was 1st in putting average. Now, the key for Homa was consistency; he made only 17 birdies to rank T-7th and only nine bogeys for the week. His final round 66 included five birdies, and he was one of three players (Viktor Hovland & Jim Furyk) to go bogey-free in the final round.

So how did 2020 winner Adam Scott do? He was two shots better than Matt Kuchar, Scott Brown, and Sung Kang and three shots better than Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Joel Dahmen, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau. So, how did Scott win? He wasn’t as good as others have been off the tee as he hit only 23 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-63rd, but he hit 52 of 72 greens, which ranked 1st. In Proximity to the hole, he was T-18th and was T-33rd rough Proximity. This is the big reason Scott won; it wasn’t due to putting. In Strokes Gained Putting, he ranked 27th at Riviera. In putts from 4 to 8 feet, he ranked T-40th and was 51st in putts inside 10 feet. Scott was good in birdies, making 21 to lead that stat, and it translated to 2nd in Par Breakers.

So let’s see how 2019 champion J.B. Holmes won. He floundered off the tee, hitting 29 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-59th. But like Scott and Homa, he was good at hitting 52 greens to rank T-2nd. But the key for Holmes winning was his putter. He dispelled his reputation of not being a great putter when Holmes was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting for the week. In putting from 4 to 8 feet, he was 3rd; in the inside 10-foot range, he was 10th, making 61 of 68 putts.
So, let’s see how Bubba Watson won the Genesis in 2018. He was two shots better than Kevin Na and Tony Finau. So, how did Watson win? He was good from off the fairway; Watson was T-7th, hitting 46 of 72 greens, and was 9th in Proximity to the hole. He ranked T-27th in fairways hit. In Par Breakers, he was 1st making an eagle and 20 birdies. Talking about birdies on the three par 5s, he played them in 8 under par. Since 1997, only five champions have played the par 5s better.

64 of the 70 players from this year’s field with stats from last year:

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Riviera:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: A way to gauge how players save shots from tee to green. Important because Riviera is a “shot-makers” course, and those that are good from tee to green tend to do well at Riviera. Now, the rough isn’t harsh at Riviera, but hitting the 5,000-square-foot greens is tough.

*Greens in Regulation: It is important to see who hits the most greens at Riviera; since the greens are middle size, hitting them is important and is the reason for player success at Riviera.

*Putting inside 10 feet: In 2012 & ’15, Riviera had the most challenging greens to putt on for the year. In 2013, ’14, ’16, and ’19, they were the 2nd hardest on Tour. Last year it ranked 6th, while the year before, it ranked 5th. Players are sometimes puzzled by the greens, which get bumpy and very hard to read in the afternoon. So, making those putts is crucial in winning.

*Par 5 scoring average: Two of Riviera’s three par 5s are easy to get home in two and score well on. The longest of them is 17th, and most of the time is played downwind, thus making that hole a birdie hole. The winner will do well on the par 5s.

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