BlogMexico Open at Vidanta Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week, the Tour moves back to Mexico in what could be a key move for a tournament.  It was played at the end of May for the first two years of the Mexico Open.  For this year, it’s being played in February, but more importantly, it’s now a wedge between the West Coast and Florida swings.  In the first two years of this event, it never got much of a falling, and for this year, most of the Tour’s marquee players are taking the week off.  With that, the Cognizant Classic (which used to be called the Honda Classic) will get a big break.  Before the event was wedged between the Genesis and the Arnold Palmer and with the Players Championship the week after, players, even the ones who lived just down the road for PGA National, didn’t play because they needed the week off.  With the Mexico Open the week between L.A. and Palm Beach, the Cognizant will get a very good field as most of the marque players will do three events in a row: the Cognizant, Palmer, and The Players.

Yes, the Mexico Open does not have a great field, but in its old spot at the end of April, it only got a few marquee players.

So what about the West Coast swing?

I have to say that even with three “signature events,” the results were very mixed.  Wyndham Clark did win at Pebble, and Matsuyama won the Genesis, but we had a different West Coast swing with marquee players making their mark.  We got a bit spoiled last year when Jon Rahm won three of the seven, and Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, and Max Homa were winners.  The year before, we had a lot of marquee winners, from Scottie Scheffler to Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Smith, while in 2020, we saw Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Webb Simpson, and Adam Scott win.  Of course, the internet is full of conspiracy theories, going from all the great players on LIV golf to the fact that Taylor Swift didn’t show up.  Even though each week has drama and surprise, LIV golf has taken some players like Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, and Cameron Smith, who played an essential role on the West Coast.  Another thing that people have yet to realize is the change in scheduling.  With the PGA Tour abandoning the wrap-around schedule, the tour now begins in January, not September.  It’s not that there was a lack of marquee names; with the three signature events and each of the seven tournaments having a loyal fan base, we have to just chalk it up to an anomaly.

Who played well…

Of course, it’s easy to point to the seven winners as the best, but only two of them also had another top-ten finish, Nick Taylor (won Phoenix & T-7th Sony) and Matthieu Pavon (Won Farmers, 3rd at Pebble & T-7th Sony).  So, in a way, we can say that the West Coast hero is Pavon, who is on top of the FedEx Cup standings.  Three players did have four top-tn finishes on the West Coast:

• Scott Scheffler – T-5th Sentry, T-6th Pebble, T-3rd Phoenix & T-10th Genesis.
• Sam Burns – T-6th Amex, 10th Pebble, T-3rd Phoenix and T-10th Genesis.
• Xander Schauffele – T-10th Sentry, T-3rd Amex, T-9th Farmers, and T-4th Genesis.

Also playing well on the West Coast:

• J.T. Poston – T-5th J.T. Poston, 6th Sony Open, T-11th Amex & T-10th Genesis.
• Jason Day – T-1oth Senty, T-6th Pebble & 9th Genesis.
• Adam Hadwin – T-14th Sentry, T-6th Amex & T-4th Genesis

We can also include these players, but they stumbled at the end:

• Justin Thomas – T-3rd Amex, T-6th Pebble & T-12th at Phoenix.  But he missed the cut at the Genesis
• Jordan Spieth – 3rd at Sentry, T-6th Phoenix, but was disqualified for a wrong score at Genesis after 1st rd 66.

…Those who didn’t play well on the West Coast

Now here are the players that we thought would do better but disappointed us:

• Viktor Hovland – In three starts, best finish was T-19th at Genesis
• Rory McIlroy – In two starts, was T-66th at Pebble and T-24th at Genesis
• Max Homa – In five starts, missed a cut and best finish T-13th, Farmers
• Matt Fitzpatrick – In five starts, missed two cuts but finish T-14th at Sentry
• Corey Conners – In five starts, best finish was T-24th at the Genesis
• Adam Schenk – In five starts, missed two cuts, best finish T-17th at Phoenix
• Rickie Fowler – In five starts, missed two cuts, best finish T-35th Genesis
• Tom Kim – In five starts, missed a cut, best finish T-17th Phoenix
• Lucas Glover – In four starts, missed a cut, best finish T-29th at Sentry
• Matt Kuchar – In five starts, only made one cut, T-39th Pebble

Things you need to know about the Mexico Open

This may be called the third Mexico Open, but historically, the Mexico Open started in 1944. It takes the place of the WGC-Mexico Championship, which had a terrific four-year run at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. At that event, it was mostly locals from the city in the gallery, and it turned into a perfect event with a lot of community support.  Unfortunately, because of Covid, the event was moved to Florida in 2021 and was played for the last time.

The Mexico Open returns to the Greg Norman signature course at Vidanta Vallarta, a tourist community outside Puerto Vallarta. So the event will be marketed towards those on vacation in Puerto Vallarta, which has many resorts and hotels dotting the beaches.

Course information:

• Vidanta Vallarta (Greg Norman Course)
• Vallarta, Mexico
• 7,456 yards     Par 35-36–71

The Greg Norman course at Vidanta Vallarta opened in 2016 but underwent many modifications to hold the event in 2022. The course winds along the American River and provides views of the Sierra Madre Mountains. It’s a par 71 course that will be played at 7,456. The course has a slope ranking of 143, and it is rated at 75.1 from the back tees. The course is accessed by the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge, which is 560 feet long.

Last year, the scoring average of the event was 70.10 and ranked as the 33rd hardest course on the PGA Tour.

Now, the course is very demanding for mortals like you and me. But for the best players in the world, lots of birdies and eagles are made. What makes the course challenging for you and me are the water hazards, large waste areas, and patches of indigenous vegetation. But the best players in the world will find a course with wide, inviting fairways and perfect playing conditions.

The greens have undulations on them, but they are in excellent shape and will be great for those who put them well. The biggest challenge for the players will be the wind; the course lies just a half mile away from the Pacific Ocean, so that will affect how the course is played. Last year, each day had winds over ten mph with gusts up to 20 mph daily, but the scores were still low.

This year will be perfect, as it will be in the high 80s with winds in the 8 to 9 mph range, so with firm, fast fairways, scores will again be super low.

The greens on the Greg Norman course range from average to huge, have plenty of slope and contour (including tiers and valleys), and are in excellent condition. Most are raised with false fronts, and all are well-guarded with 40 bunkers. If you miss a green, expect the ball to roll into a collection area. From there, you will be presented with how to get it up and down. Some will fly it to the pin, while others will bump and run it up. If you fly it to the pin, you will not get it right and have more problems. So, most of the time, you will see a player bump it onto the green and close to the hole. In 2022, putting was important in Jon Rahm’s victory. He was 18th in Strokes Gained putting but was 4th in putting inside ten feet as he made 63 of 67 attempts. Ditto for Tony Finau winning last year. He was 8th in Strokes Gained putting and was T-11th in putting inside ten feet, making 63 of 68 attempts.

If we look at those players that lead Strokes Gained Putting for 2024 and are playing this week, #1 Hayden Springer is playing along with #2 Aaron Baddeley, #4 Pierceson Coody, #5 Chesson Haley, #6 Justin Suh, #8 Trace Crowe and #10 Ryan Fox. The only problem with these folks is that the longest hitter of the seven is Ryan Fox, who is 42nd in driving distance, and Hayden Springer, who is 44th.

So, is the course hard enough so that a marquee player has the advantage of winning?

In the two years the event has been played, the two most marquee names won, Jon Rahm in 2022 and Tony Finau last year. The big problem is that there aren’t many marquee players on the field besides Finau and possibly Charley Hoffman and Padraig Harrington. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a newcomer winning this week.

I wish I could give you a better way of choosing players, but in a way, it’s best to look at results from the two times it’s been played to see the trend on who to pick. Along with looking for those bombers whose records on the PGA Tour could be better but play well on courses where distance is essential, you have to remember a player who misses a lot of cuts. An example of this is someone like Cameron Champ. He has won three times on the PGA Tour, but in 131 career starts, he has only made 65 cuts, which is under 50%. In 2024, he has missed all four cuts, so you have to go on blind faith that this course is one that will not only make the cut but also be in contention; in 2022, he was T-6th, and last year, T-8th.

The Mexico Open will resemble these events, which are also played along the ocean and have the elements of wind. So look at the Bermuda Championship, Mayakoba Championship, Puerto Rico Open, and Corales Puntacana Championship to see how players performed on those courses; it will show up this week. You will see no rhyme or reason in choosing winners, and basically, the players who will play well are those who find some secret in the days before the start of the event.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Vidanta Vallarta

This is based on the most important stats for Vidanta Vallarta, based on data from last year’s Mexico Open, and data from all the players in the field with stats from this season.
It is essential to know that this course looks tough on TV, and it is. For mortals like you and I, the course is very demanding. But for the best players in the world, we saw a lot of birdies and eagles in the event’s two-year history. What makes the course challenging for you and me are the water hazards, large waste areas, and patches of indigenous vegetation. For the best players in the world, they will find a course with wide, inviting fairways and perfect playing conditions. Of all the courses on the PGA Tour, this is the one course (along with the Plantation Course at Kapalua) that bombers have a significant advantage on. Of all the courses on the PGA Tour, those in the Mexico Open field get on the tee and flair at it to try and hit it as long as possible. You won’t see a short hitter win on this course; they are disadvantaged. The biggest challenge for the players this week will be the wind; the course lies just a half mile away from the Pacific Ocean, so that will affect how the course is played.
Last year, the field’s scoring average was 70.10, so with par being 71, the average score was about a shot under par, making the course in the middle of difficulties on the PGA Tour
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Mexico Open for the two years it’s been played:
2023 – The average was 70.10, making it the 33rd hardest of the 55 courses for the year
2022 – The average was 70.32, making it the 24th hardest of the 50 courses for the year

For the players, spotting iguanas is part of the fun while you keep an eye on the crocodiles sunning in the neighboring sanctuary.
For the average player, water plays on 15 of the 18 holes. But for the best players in the world, water will come into play on 11 holes: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,11, 14, and 17. The secret of playing well will be in the shots into the greens and being able to make a lot of 10-foot putts. One thing to remember about the 18 holes at Vidanta Vallarta is that only two holes are dogleg, the 1st and the 3rd. For the rest of the holes, drives aren’t restricted by doglegs, which allows players to hit it hard and far. Of the holes bordered by water, you can always bail out to the opposite side and have a shot to the green, so our first category is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, in which driving distance helps determine the number of strokes either gained or lost.
Long hitters have a significant advantage; Last year, the average drive of all drives at Vidanta Vallarta was 299.1 as the course ranked T-33rd out of the 41 courses tracked in 2023. The previous year, the average drive of all the drives at Vidanta Vallarta was 296.6, and the course ranked 24th of the 36 courses that tracked drives in 2022.
2023 – Winner Tony Finau averaged 307.6 yards on all the holes during the Mexico Open, ranked 17th in the field, and was 2nd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. For 2023, Finau averaged 305.7 yards on all his drives for the year, which ranked 10th, and he was 17th for 2023 in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.
2022 – Winner Jon Rahm averaged 317.6 yards on all the holes during the Mexico Open, ranked 3rd in the field and was 3rd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. For 2022, Rahm averaged 301.0 yards on all his drives for the year, which ranked 8th, and he was 16th for 2022 in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee.

Our second category is Proximity to the hole, which is the average distance the ball comes to rest from the hole (in feet) after the player’s approach shot from the fairway.
2023 – Vidanta Vallarta ranked 28th in Greens in Regulation as the average shot from the fairway finished 43 feet, nine inches from the hole, as Vidanta Vallarta ranked 2nd in Proximity to hole.
As for winner Tony Finau, he was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation as the shot finished 37 feet to the hole, which was 4th in Proximity to hole.
2022 – Vidanta Vallarta ranked 26th in Greens in Regulation as the average shot from the fairway finished 43 feet, ten inches from the hole, as Vidanta Vallarta ranked 1st in Proximity to hole.
As for winner Jon Rahm, he was T-7th in Greens in Regulation as the shot finished 40 feet, two inches to the hole, which was 19th in Proximity to hole.

Our third category is Par 5 scorning average. There are four par 5s at Vidanta Vallarta, with two playing over 600 yards. Despite that, all will be accessible in two, and the winner must play these four holes in at least 10 under.
2023 – Vidanta Vallarta ranked T-34th in par 5 scoring average (out of 58 courses) as the scoring average on the four par 5s was 4.60.
As for winner Tony Finau, he played the par 5s in 12 under, which, along with two other players, was 2nd best in the field (Akshay Bhatia played par 5s in 13 under).
2022 – Vidanta Vallarta ranked T-32nd in par 5 scoring average (out of 50 courses) as the scoring average on the four par 5s was 4.62.
As for winner Jon Rahm, he played the par 5s in 12 under along with one other player as Rahm and Davis Riley led the field in Par 5s.

Our last category is Par Breakers because the course does give up a lot of birdies and eagles
2023 – 1,733 birdies were made (46th hardest) and 43 eagles (T-45th) as 22.73% of the holes played under par, making it the 39th hardest of the 58 courses that year
Winner Tony Finau made 27 birdies (Most) but had no eagles as 37.50% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
2022 – 1,698 birdies were made (40th hardest) and 52 eagles (42nd) as 22.35% of the holes played under par, making it the 32nd hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Jon Rahm made 20 birdies (T-9th) and had one eagle as 29.17% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-7th in Par Breakers.

So what was the secret of the two winners of the Mexico Open, and how they won?

2023: Tony Finau was runner-up to Jon Rahm a year ago, but the results were reversed this year. Finau, who opened with rounds of 65-64-65, held a two-shot lead heading into the final round. On Sunday, Finau shot a bogey-free, 5-under 66 to win by three shots over Rahm. For the week, Finau was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, and T-3rd in Greens in Regulation. Finau will also look at his short putting as a key; in 61 putts from seven feet and under, Finau only missed one putt.

2022: Jon Rahm came into the week not only as the highest-ranked player in the field that only attracted five of the top-35 in the world, but in his opening round 64, he showed he was up to the hype, and he led after the 2nd and 3rd rounds with a 66-69. Rahm coasted in the final round, only making third birdies and one bogey as he could outlast the field to win by a shot over Tony Finau, Brandon Wu, and Kurt Kitayama.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT VIDANTA VALLARTA:

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The number of strokes a player takes from a specific distance off the tee on Par 4 & par 5’s is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost off the tee on a hole. The sum of the values for all holes played in a round minus the field average strokes gained/lost for the round is the player’s Strokes gained/lost for that round.

*Par 5 Scoring Average: There are four par 5s, with two playing over 600 yards. Despite that, all are accessible in two, and the winner must play these four holes in at least 10 under.

*Proximity to Hole: The average distance the ball comes to rest from the hole (in feet) after the player’s approach shot from the fairway.

*Par Breakers: Vidanta Vallarta has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field seems to make a lot of birdies and eagles as the course has a very low Par Breaker total.

92 of the 132 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link for all players stats

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Genesis Open, a total of 62 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

It makes sense that this list’s top players will earn many points this week.

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $12,000
• Emiliano Grillo – $11,100
• Nicolai Hojgaard – $10,700
• Thorbjorn Olesen – $10,300
• Thomas Detry – $10,100
• Keith Mitchell – $9,900
• Stephan Jaeger – $9,800
• Patrick Rodgers – $9,700
• Taylor Pendrith – $9,600
• Erik Van Rooyen – $9,500
• MacKenzie Hughes – $9,400
• Ryan Fox – $9,300
• Brandon Wu – $9,100
• Mark Hubbard – $9,000

Before we start this week’s Mexico Open, it’s important to note that we have very little information on past results (just two years), so we need more data on who plays the course well. Only half of the players have seen Vidanta Vallarta before this week (60 making their debut at the event), so it’s safe to say that everyone is on equal terms on course knowledge. My best advice is to take the week off and prepare for next week’s Cognizant Classic, which will have a great field.

Besides Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, and Padraig Harrington, this week has few marquee players, so all players’ values are wildly skewed. Frankly, of the 14 players listed above, I am only comfortable with four: Hojgaard, Detry, Hughes, and Wu. Of the others, I can tolerate Finau (except the price) and Stephan Jaeger, so it’s best to find those best picks in the $8,000 price range. Instead of looking for winners in an entire field of 132 players, you should think that if you pick six that make the cut, you will win money.

Our first player, Tony Finau, at $12,000; gosh, it’s rare to find a player that is so expensive. But the course is perfect for him; he feels comfortable in Puerto Vallarta and on the course in which he finished T-2nd in 2022 and won last year. With his length off the tee and how the course suits his game, you could miss out on at least 100 DraftKings points if you don’t take him. The odds of Finau finishing in the top ten are probably 6 to 10, so if you don’t pick him, you will be at a severe disadvantage because between 40 and 60% of the players will pick Tony. Still, I am not picking Finau; he is too inconsistent to gamble on his high price. As for Emiliano Grillo at $11,100, have no idea how they got his price this high. Yes, he finished T-5th last year, but he is not long off the tee, and I will not touch him. Nicolai Hojgaard at $10,700, is a good player and has played great this year. He isn’t long off the tee, but he isn’t short but not long enough for me at his price. Thorbjorn Olesen at $10,300, is another player given a high price because he won in his last start in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He has never played in the event, he doesn’t hit it far, and, compared to the field, hits it about average, so he is another pass for me. Thomas Detry – $10,100 has also not played this course, and since he is 48th in driving distance, he doesn’t give me any reason to choose him. But before you say no to him, remember he was 2nd in Bermuda, T-15th at Mayakoba, and T-8th at Corales Puntacana, so he likes these courses on oceans. But his price is way too high for me. Keith Mitchell at $9,900, is another high-price player who hasn’t played before in this event, and I say no to him. Stephan Jaeger at $9,800, has a pedigree on this course, was T-15th in 2022 and T-18th last year. He is 50th in driving distance and has played ok for the year. He is a possibility, but again, he is priced too high. Patrick Rodgers at $9,700, is the first person I will seriously consider. He ranks 15th in driving distance, which means he is a bomber, and in two starts in this event, he was T-10th both times. He is a great choice, even at his high price. Taylor Pendrith at $9,600 is also a good choice; he is 27th in driving distance and has played well this year, including a T-9th at the Farmers and T-10th at Sony. In his only start at Vidanta Vallarta was T-30th last year. The same goes for Erik Van Rooyen at $9,500; he is a bomber who is 23rd in driving distance and was T-33rd last year in this event. He won in Mexico last November and has the kind of power to do well this week. I’m going to take a past on MacKenzie Hughes at $9,400, he is playing in this event for the first time and doesn’t hit it long to classify as a bomber. He has made four cuts in four starts this year but hasn’t shown that he will do well this week. Ryan Fox at $9,300 is another no; playing this event for the first time, I know he can hit it long, but not in form now. Brandon Wu at $9,100 is a good choice, even though he is a short hitter. He finds Vidanta Vallarta to his liking; he was T-2nd in 2022 and 3rd last year. Mark Hubbard at $9,000, is a no, short hitter, he was T-4th a few weeks back at Pebble, but don’t see him doing well this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Davis Thompson at $8,900, is a great pick. Yes, he hasn’t played in the Mexico Open, but his 2024 stats prove him to be a great choice. He is 50th in driving distance but 7th in shots from 50 to 125 to the hole, 24th in strokes gained putting, and 20th in par breakers. So don’t hesitate in picking him. Cameron Champ at $8,600 is an excellent choice despite him missing a lot of cuts. But he is a bomber who has done well in this event, he was T-6th in 2022 and T-8th last year. He has to be one of your picks. Also, like Charley Hoffman at $8,400, his stats prove he can be good in this event. The same goes for Maverick McNealy at $8,100, he has a great combination of bombing it off the tee and being able to putt well and make a lot of birdies.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Mexico Open

This is a tricky category because there aren’t many “bargains.”  I like the stats on Sam Stevens at $7,100; he is 16th in driving distance, 18th from 50 to 125 yards to the pin, 58th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 74th in Par Breakers. He has not played in this event and, for the year, has been consistent, he was T-28th in his last start in Phoenix. Like Davis Riley at $6,500, he was 5th in this event in 2022 and played well on long courses. Lanto Griffin at $6,100 could be worth the cost; he was T-15th in 2022 and T-66th last year. He is 19th in Driving Distance, and I am sure he will make the cut. One off-the-wall pick because he is so cheap. Ben Taylor is $5,100 and finished T-8th last year in Mexico. I just have that feeling that he could do the same again.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Mexico Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• Lots of patience to learn the course and will take a lot of patience in which birdies and eagles will be easy to make. This doesn’t happen much on the PGA Tour, but they could take apart this course if the weather is good.

More keys:

The ability to hit it long and straight could be the way to winning this event.

The greens are very demanding, and with them being hard, they will bounce off the greens and give players challenging pitches in which they either have to bump and run them to the pin or fly it to the pin.

Last, we have to talk about the weather. The course hasn’t seen rain in weeks so it will be hard and firm. But looking at the weather forecast, every day will be picture-perfect, with sunny skies and temperatures in the high 80s. Winds will come off the ocean at 8 mph, so look for excellent scoring conditions.