Cognizant Classic Key Fantasy Stats

Cognizant Classic

February 29th – March 3rd, 2024

PGA National Champion Course

Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,147

Purse: $9 million

with $1,620,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Chris Kirk

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for the PGA National Champions Course, data from last year’s Cognizant Classic, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at the par 70 PGA National last year was 70.36, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2023 out of 58 courses. PGA National has held the Cognizant Classic since 2007; last year’s 70.36 average was the lowest scoring average ever at PGA National. The previous low was in 2014 when the course played to an average of 70.41 (17th hardest for the year).
Of all the courses that have regularly held a tournament, PGA National is the only course that has played over par each year that it has been played.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Cognizant Classic for the last few years it’s been played:
2022 – The average was 71.34, and it was the 7th hardest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – The average was 71.10, the 6th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 71.90, was 3rd hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 71.02, was 5th hardest of 49 courses that year

This has been the norm for this course since it was first held in 2007. It’s been one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012, when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19, and in 2014, it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. Last year was the 3rd time in history that it wasn’t in the top-ten hardest course of the year.
One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year, on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday, they saw average winds of between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts up to 18mph. The year before, 2022, the winds were terrible on Thursday, with winds at 18 mph and gusts up to 22 mph. For the rest of the event, Friday through Sunday, the winds blew between 10 to 16 mph.
This is the number one reason scoring is so tough at the Honda. In 2018, it blew up to 25 mph each day, which wreaked havoc for the players and protected the course from low scores. This year, the winds will be very manageable as Thursday will be 11 mph and 15 mph on Friday. Things get better as winds will be between 10 and 12 mph over the weekend. The long-range forecast shows no rain for the first three days, but there could be scattered thunderstorms. So, with manageable winds, look for scoring to be lower, and for the first time, the average score could go below the Par 70 for the course.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year, Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole, Scambling, and Par Breakers are essential and our top categories.
Our first stat is Greens in Regulation. A critical thing for PGA National, which has big greens at 7,000 square feet, is getting the ball on shots into the green. In looking at the winners at PGA National, greens hit is something all the winners have in common. Since 2007, 11 of the 17 have been in the top 10, while nine of the 17 have been in the top five. In the last four years, all of them have been in the top 7 in Greens in regulation.
Last year, PGA National ranked 20th out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 64.00% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, hit 54 of 72 greens (75.00%) and ranked T-7th.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Cognizant Classic for the last few years:
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 63.16%, and was the 20th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sepp Straka hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-1st.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 61.59% and was the 16th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Matt Jones hit 52 of 72 greens (72.22%) and ranked T-5th.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 57.10%, and was the 4th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Sungjae Im hit 50 of 72 greens (769.44%) and ranked T-2nd.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 58.26%, and was the 7th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Keith Mitchell hit 45 of 72 greens (62.50%) and ranked T-22nd.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

Our second category is Rough Proximity, which considers how close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee. Since the rough is tough and hard to get a club on, you must avoid the rough off the tee. Last year, Driving Accuracy at PGA National was 33rd in hitting fairways, as 60.41 of the drives found the fairways. But those who missed the fairway had to pull off miracles to get the next shot onto the greens. Of those that missed the fairways, those that got it on the green averaged 42 feet, six inches, as the course ranked 31st. Last year, winner Chris Kirk hit 62.50% of the fairways to rank T-35th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 34 feet, nine inches away, and ranked T-15th.

Here is a look at the driving accuracy and those out of the rough average distance for the Cognizant Classic winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 25th in driving accuracy, hitting 60.73% of the fairways (out of 50 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 44 feet, five inches from the hole, and ranked T-21st.
Winner Sepp Straka hit 83.93% of the fairways to rank 1st. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 34 feet, one inch away, and ranked 9th.
2021 – The course ranked 18th in driving accuracy, hitting 57.06% of the fairways (out of 51 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 43 feet, seven inches from the hole, and ranked T-24th.
Winner Matt Jones hit 64.29% of the fairways to rank T-15th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 39 feet, ten inches away, and ranked 57th.
2020 – The course ranked 21st in driving accuracy, hitting 60.00% of the fairways (out of 41 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 47 feet, six inches from the hole, and ranked 74th
Winner Sungjae Im hit 67.86% of the fairways to rank T-10th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 63 feet, one inch away, and ranked 64th.
2019 – The course ranked 24th in driving accuracy, hitting 62.51% of the fairways (out of 49 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 39 feet, nine inches from the hole, and ranked 6th
Winner Keith Mitchell hit 58.93% of the fairways to rank T-54th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 60 feet, seven inches away, and ranked 67th.

Our third category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, PGA National ranked 18th in scrambling out of 58 courses, while winner Chris Kirk was ranked T-20th, getting it up and down in 12 of the 18 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling at the Cognizant Classic winners the last few years:
2022 – PGA National finished 10th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.79% of the time
Winner Sepp Straka was ranked 3rd, getting it up and down in 13 of the 17 greens he missed.
2021 – PGA National finished 7th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.07% of the time
Winner Matt Jones was ranked 17th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 20 greens he missed.
2020 – PGA National finished 3rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.81% of the time
Winner Sungjae Im was ranked T-5th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens he missed.
2019 – PGA National finished 20th in scrambling, getting it up and down 583.37% of the time
Winner Keith Mitchell was ranked T-2nd, getting it up and down in 21 of the 27 greens he missed.
The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our last important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, PGA National had 1,419 birdies, 33rd in total birdies, and had 31 eagles made, which ranked T-32nd. Winner Chris Kirk was T-3rd in the field with 18 birdies and T-4th with one eagle. He was T-3rd in Par Breakers.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Cognizant Classic winners the last few years:
2022 – 1,262 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 15 eagles (T-2nd) as 16.35% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sepp Straka made 18 birdies (T-3rd) but had no eagles as 25.00% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,345 birdies were made (26th hardest) and 51 eagles (45th) as 16.42% of the holes played under par, making it the 13th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Matt Jones made 20 birdies (Best) and one eagle as 29.17% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – 1,172 birdies were made (18th hardest) and 25 eagles (T-13th) as 15.65% of the holes played under par, making it the 3rd hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Sungjae Im made 19 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles as 26.39% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
2019 – 1,320 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 9 eagles (2nd) as 16.86% of the holes played under par, making it the 5th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Keith Mitchell made 16 birdies (T-12th) and no eagles as 22.22% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-12th in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

One sad element of this tournament is the field’s weakness in past years. The good news is that with Mexico playing the week before, the field is much better than in the last five years. Still, this time slot is very competitive when you think that two weeks ago, Genesis was a designated event, and next week, the Palmer is also designated with the Players the week after, which gets a great field. With Mexico wedged in between, it’s a help, and hopefully, with a new sponsor, this event will get designated status.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats for players to do well at PGA National:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 7,000 square feet, they are usually easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is essential. Last year and in 2022 on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 20th hardest greens to hit. In 2021, they were the 16th hardest to hit, while in 2020, they were the 4th hardest to hit. In 2019, it was the 7th hardest to hit; in 2018, it was the 4th hardest to hit; while in 2017, they were the 15th hardest; and in 2016, it was the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National; in 2015, it ranked 6th; in 2014, it ranked 18th; in 2013, 5th; in 2012, 11th; and 6th in 2011. So, a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee. Last year, PGA National finished 31st; in 2022, it was T-21st; in 2021, it was the 24th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2020, it ranked 7th. In 2019, it was 6th hardest, and in 2018, it was 9th. In 2017, it was 8th; in 2016, it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happen, so it’s essential to salvage par. Last year, PGA National ranked 18th in getting it up and down, and in 2021, it was 10th hardest on tour, while it was 7th in 2021 and 3rd in 2020. In 2019, it ranked 20th, while in 2018, it was the 8th hardest. In 2017, it was the 15th hardest; in 2016, it was the 5th hardest in scrambling; in 2015, it was the 7th hardest, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is very difficult. So, players who can make a lot will do well on this course, which ranked 11th last year, 6th in 2022, 13th in 2021, and 3rd the year before. In 2019, it ranked 5th and 2nd in 2018. In 2017, it ranked 18th and 5th in this stat on tour in 2016.

124 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.