BlogCognizant Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s off to Florida. But before we talk about that, there are some things to discuss. First, after a sabbatical of nearly 12 years, Anthony Kim is playing professional golf again. He first showed up on the PGA Tour in 2007 and in 26 events, had four top-ten finishes, and was 43 in the FedEx Cup race. In his rookie season, his best finish came at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he finished T-3rd. Despite his outstanding year, Brandt Snedeker, who won the Wyndham Championship, got Rookie of the Year honors. Kim’s best season was the following year, 2008 when in 22 starts, he won twice and had 8 top-ten finishes. His first victory came in the Wells Fargo Championship, and he won again two months later at the AT&T National. He was 4th in the FedEx Cup race for the year and won $4.6 million. Kim won again in 2010, winning the Shell Houston Open in a playoff, but he blew out his Achilles tendon in 2012 and had numerous surgeries. His last event was the 2012 Wells Fargo. It was thought that he would miss up to a year, but he not only dropped out of golf but became a recluse, not talking to anyone. He was living in Dallas, and the rumor was that he had somewhere between $10 to 20 million dollar insurance policy in case of a career-ending injury. With Kim not talking to anyone, he just dropped out and it was rumored that he could live comfortably with the insurance policy, but he was barred from playing professional golf ever again.

12 years later, the talk was that Kim wanted to make a comeback, but he needed someone to pay for his insurance policy. The PGA Tour wouldn’t do that, but Greg Norman committed to having him play on the LIV Tour, which supposedly paid the insurance policy. It will be interesting to see how he does. At 38, he is just past his prime but still has a few good years left. Frankly, I don’t see it. I am still waiting to hear of someone taking a decade break, returning to the PGA Tour, and being competitive. Now, we have seen some Champion tour players who have never played much professional golf come onto the scene. The first person that comes to mind is Allen Doyle, who played on the PGA Tour for two years in 1997 and ’98, then joined the Champions Tour in 1998 and won 11 times. Another player was Jay Sigel, who had a remarkable amateur record, including back-to-back Amateur wins in 1982 and ’83, then deciding to turn professional and joined the Championship winning eight times. But the point we need to look at in Kim’s case is that he has not played competitive golf in 12 years; sorry, I don’t see it. We will see, but I don’t expect Kim to contend much; sorry, you can’t return to professional golf after a 12-year sabbatical from competitive golf.

Was the West Coast swing a success?

The last eight weeks have been weird. Last year, we saw the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, and Max Homa win. Every year of the West Coast swing, you have a marquee winner; looking through decades of West Coast swing, it’s the first time a non-marquee player has won. Before I say that, yes, both Hideki Matsuyama and Wyndham Clark are major winners, so yes, it did have marquee winners. Still, we see the results of LIV golf, taking players who have won over the last few years on the West Coast swing. We saw the PGA Tour’s future with Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, and Jake Knapp winning. But, in the way of picking winners, this is the first time since I have been doing these previews, going back to 2005, when I went the West Coast swing without picking one winner.

With the tour going to Florida for the next four weeks, here is a guide to help you pick who plays best in Florida.

Things you need to know about the Cognizant Classic

This will be the 52nd Cognizant Classic.  The tournament started in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at Inverrary Golf & C.C. in Lauderhill, Florida.  It’s a bit strange, and nobody will bother to care, but Jackie Gleason would have been 106 years old last month.  Most players don’t even know who he was and how great the old Honeymooner shows were. Maybe I am old and remember him, he was a hilarious guy and loved golf.  In 1981, Jackie Gleason was dropped from the tournament, and the following year, Honda came aboard as the tournament sponsor; today, they are the longest-running sponsor on the PGA Tour. After playing at several courses for 15 years, the tournament switched courses again in 2007. This time to the Champion Course at PGA National, the 1983 Ryder Cup, and the 1987 PGA Championship site.  It became an instant success and upgraded the tournament with more marquee and higher-ranked players attending. In 1976, the Players Championship, which moved around to different courses, chose Inverrary Golf & C.C., and the Inverrary Classic wasn’t played that year.  The event is the first event in the Florida swing.

This year is bringing a significant change in sponsorship. Since 1982, Honda has sponsored this event; it was the longest-running sponsor on the PGA Tour. But last year, the decision was made to drop sponsorship, and the PGA Tour got Cognizant to pick it up. For those who have never heard of the company, it’s an American multinational information technology services and consulting company. It is headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey. It was founded as an in-house technology unit of Dun & Bradstreet in 1994 in India and started serving external clients in 1996. Today, Cognizant helps companies modernize technology, reimagine processes, and transform experiences to stay ahead in a fast-changing world. With the use of A.I. technology, the sponsorship will allow the company to help more people learn about it.

Course information:

• PGA National (Champion Course)
• Palm Beach Gardens, Fl.
• 7,147 yards     Par 35-36–71
• The course has a 75.3 rating and a slope rating of 147 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and open to those staying there. It also sells local memberships.
• Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio in 1981, Jack Nicklaus redesigned the course in 1990, adding the feared “Bear Trap” holes 15, 16, and 17. PGA National has a lot of experience holding golf tournaments; the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship, and 18 Senior PGA Championships have been held on the course.  Since 2007, it’s been the home of the Honda Classic.  PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand. Look for scores to be a bit high, especially if the wind blows.  The course has 78 bunkers and 26 water hazards, of which 13 holes have water in play for the professionals.  The last four holes create a lot of drama in which water on par three, 15th, and 17th holes have broken many dreams of winning.  The 18th hole also makes a lot of drama; it’s a long par five that is nearly impossible to hit in two, but it’s a true par 5.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance. The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways surrounded by water and sand along the fairways but in the middle of several of them. Hitting greens is very important. Since moving to PGA National in 2007, 10 of the 17 winners and 14 of the 24 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top ten in greens hit. Last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, hit 54 of 72 greens and was ranked T-7th. In 2022, the winner, Sepp Straka, hit 55 of 72 greens and was ranked T-1st. The year before Matt Jones hit 52 of the 72 greens and ranked T-5th, the previous winner, Sungjae Im, ranked T-2nd in greens hit.
• The par 3s are some of the toughest on tour. Last year, it ranked 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour in par 3 averages, while in 2022 and 2021, it ranked 3rd hardest on the tour; last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, played them in one under, while in 2022, Sepp Straka played them in one over. In 2022, winner Matt Jones played them in one under. The previous year, in 2020, the par 3s ranked 2nd hardest as Sungjae. I’m playing them in just one under. The year before, in 2019, Keith Mitchell played them in four under, and 2018 winner Justin Thomas was two under on the par 3s. In the last eight years, the par 3s at PGA National haven’t been worse than the seventh hardest on tour. In 2018, it was the hardest; in 2020, it was the 2nd hardest; and in 2019, ’21, and ’22, it was the 3rd hardest. The par 3s are vital in winning.
• One last item to be discussed is the “Bear Trap,” holes 15, 16, and 17. These three holes, surrounded by water and danger, are among the most challenging stretches on the PGA Tour. Thanks to Shotlink stats, we can see that since 2007, there have been 7358 total rounds played in the Cognizant Classic. Throughout those rounds, the field was 4,374 over par as 1,777 balls found water in the three-hole stretch. Even more impressive, of the 582 players that have played in the Honda Classic since 2007, 537 of 612 players (87.8%) are over par on the Bear Trap in their respective careers. That shows how challenging these holes are.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the PGA National:

This is based on the most important stats for the PGA National Champions Course, data from last year’s Cognizant Classic, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at the par 70 PGA National last year was 70.36, making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2023 out of 58 courses. PGA National has held the Cognizant Classic since 2007; last year’s 70.36 average was the lowest scoring average ever at PGA National. The previous low was in 2014 when the course played to an average of 70.41 (17th hardest for the year).
Of all the courses that have regularly held a tournament, PGA National is the only course that has played over par each year that it has been played.
Here is a look at the scoring average of the Cognizant Classic for the last few years it’s been played:
2022 – The average was 71.34, and it was the 7th hardest of the 50 courses that year
2021 – The average was 71.10, the 6th hardest of the 51 courses that year
2020 – Average was 71.90, was 3rd hardest of 41 courses that year
2019 – Average was 71.02, was 5th hardest of 49 courses that year

This has been the norm for this course since it was first held in 2007. It’s been one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012, when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19, and in 2014, it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. Last year was the 3rd time in history that it wasn’t in the top-ten hardest course of the year.
One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year, on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday, they saw average winds of between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts up to 18mph. The year before, 2022, the winds were terrible on Thursday, with winds at 18 mph and gusts up to 22 mph. For the rest of the event, Friday through Sunday, the winds blew between 10 to 16 mph.
This is the number one reason scoring is so tough at the Honda. In 2018, it blew up to 25 mph each day, which wreaked havoc for the players and protected the course from low scores. This year, the winds will be very manageable as Thursday will be 11 mph and 15 mph on Friday. Things get better as winds will be between 10 and 12 mph over the weekend. The long-range forecast shows no rain for the first three days, but there could be scattered thunderstorms. So, with manageable winds, look for scoring to be lower, and for the first time, the average score could go below the Par 70 for the course.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year, Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole, Scambling, and Par Breakers are essential and our top categories.
Our first stat is Greens in Regulation. A critical thing for PGA National, which has big greens at 7,000 square feet, is getting the ball on shots into the green. In looking at the winners at PGA National, greens hit is something all the winners have in common. Since 2007, 11 of the 17 have been in the top 10, while nine of the 17 have been in the top five. In the last four years, all of them have been in the top 7 in Greens in regulation.
Last year, PGA National ranked 20th out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 64.00% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, hit 54 of 72 greens (75.00%) and ranked T-7th.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Cognizant Classic for the last few years:
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 63.16%, and was the 20th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sepp Straka hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-1st.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 61.59% and was the 16th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Matt Jones hit 52 of 72 greens (72.22%) and ranked T-5th.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 57.10%, and was the 4th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Sungjae Im hit 50 of 72 greens (769.44%) and ranked T-2nd.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 58.26%, and was the 7th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Keith Mitchell hit 45 of 72 greens (62.50%) and ranked T-22nd.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

Our second category is Rough Proximity, which considers how close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee. Since the rough is tough and hard to get a club on, you must avoid the rough off the tee. Last year, Driving Accuracy at PGA National was 33rd in hitting fairways, as 60.41 of the drives found the fairways. But those who missed the fairway had to pull off miracles to get the next shot onto the greens. Of those that missed the fairways, those that got it on the green averaged 42 feet, six inches, as the course ranked 31st. Last year, winner Chris Kirk hit 62.50% of the fairways to rank T-35th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 34 feet, nine inches away, and ranked T-15th.

Here is a look at the driving accuracy and those out of the rough average distance for the Cognizant Classic winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 25th in driving accuracy, hitting 60.73% of the fairways (out of 50 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 44 feet, five inches from the hole, and ranked T-21st.
Winner Sepp Straka hit 83.93% of the fairways to rank 1st. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 34 feet, one inch away, and ranked 9th.
2021 – The course ranked 18th in driving accuracy, hitting 57.06% of the fairways (out of 51 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 43 feet, seven inches from the hole, and ranked T-24th.
Winner Matt Jones hit 64.29% of the fairways to rank T-15th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 39 feet, ten inches away, and ranked 57th.
2020 – The course ranked 21st in driving accuracy, hitting 60.00% of the fairways (out of 41 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 47 feet, six inches from the hole, and ranked 74th
Winner Sungjae Im hit 67.86% of the fairways to rank T-10th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 63 feet, one inch away, and ranked 64th.
2019 – The course ranked 24th in driving accuracy, hitting 62.51% of the fairways (out of 49 courses). Of those in the rough, they got it on the green 39 feet, nine inches from the hole, and ranked 6th
Winner Keith Mitchell hit 58.93% of the fairways to rank T-54th. He got the shots out of the rough and onto the green 60 feet, seven inches away, and ranked 67th.

Our third category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, PGA National ranked 18th in scrambling out of 58 courses, while winner Chris Kirk was ranked T-20th, getting it up and down in 12 of the 18 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling at the Cognizant Classic winners the last few years:
2022 – PGA National finished 10th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.79% of the time
Winner Sepp Straka was ranked 3rd, getting it up and down in 13 of the 17 greens he missed.
2021 – PGA National finished 7th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.07% of the time
Winner Matt Jones was ranked 17th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 20 greens he missed.
2020 – PGA National finished 3rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.81% of the time
Winner Sungjae Im was ranked T-5th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens he missed.
2019 – PGA National finished 20th in scrambling, getting it up and down 583.37% of the time
Winner Keith Mitchell was ranked T-2nd, getting it up and down in 21 of the 27 greens he missed.
The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our last important category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, PGA National had 1,419 birdies, 33rd in total birdies, and had 31 eagles made, which ranked T-32nd. Winner Chris Kirk was T-3rd in the field with 18 birdies and T-4th with one eagle. He was T-3rd in Par Breakers.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Cognizant Classic winners the last few years:
2022 – 1,262 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 15 eagles (T-2nd) as 16.35% of the holes played under par, making it the 6th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sepp Straka made 18 birdies (T-3rd) but had no eagles as 25.00% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-3rd in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,345 birdies were made (26th hardest) and 51 eagles (45th) as 16.42% of the holes played under par, making it the 13th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Matt Jones made 20 birdies (Best) and one eagle as 29.17% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – 1,172 birdies were made (18th hardest) and 25 eagles (T-13th) as 15.65% of the holes played under par, making it the 3rd hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Sungjae Im made 19 birdies (T-1st) and no eagles as 26.39% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
2019 – 1,320 birdies were made (23rd hardest) and 9 eagles (2nd) as 16.86% of the holes played under par, making it the 5th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Keith Mitchell made 16 birdies (T-12th) and no eagles as 22.22% of the holes played under par as he ranked T-12th in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

One sad element of this tournament is the field’s weakness in past years. The good news is that with Mexico playing the week before, the field is much better than in the last five years. Still, this time slot is very competitive when you think that two weeks ago, Genesis was a designated event, and next week, the Palmer is also designated with the Players the week after, which gets a great field. With Mexico wedged in between, it’s a help, and hopefully, with a new sponsor, this event will get designated status.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FOR PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT PGA NATIONAL:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 7,000 square feet, they are usually easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is essential. Last year and in 2022 on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 20th hardest greens to hit. In 2021, they were the 16th hardest to hit, while in 2020, they were the 4th hardest to hit. In 2019, it was the 7th hardest to hit; in 2018, it was the 4th hardest to hit; while in 2017, they were the 15th hardest; and in 2016, it was the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National; in 2015, it ranked 6th; in 2014, it ranked 18th; in 2013, 5th; in 2012, 11th; and 6th in 2011. So, a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee. Last year, PGA National finished 31st; in 2022, it was T-21st; in 2021, it was the 24th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2020, it ranked 7th. In 2019, it was 6th hardest, and in 2018, it was 9th. In 2017, it was 8th; in 2016, it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happen, so it’s essential to salvage par. Last year, PGA National ranked 18th in getting it up and down, and in 2021, it was 10th hardest on tour, while it was 7th in 2021 and 3rd in 2020. In 2019, it ranked 20th, while in 2018, it was the 8th hardest. In 2017, it was the 15th hardest; in 2016, it was the 5th hardest in scrambling; in 2015, it was the 7th hardest, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is very difficult. So, players who can make a lot will do well on this course, which ranked 11th last year, 6th in 2022, 13th in 2021, and 3rd the year before. In 2019, it ranked 5th and 2nd in 2018. In 2017, it ranked 18th and 5th in this stat on tour in 2016.

124 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link back to see all the player’s stats for the Cognizant Classic

DraftKings tips

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Mexico Open, a total of 63 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

It makes sense that this list’s top players will earn many points this week.

DraftKings tips

With the field the way it is, the course is playing tough, and one of the most significant items you should think about is picking six guys who will make the cut.  This will be the most challenging event so far in 2024 to pick players that will participate in four rounds.  So make extra sure about your picks, and remember the tour is now in Florida, and players that have done poorly out west may suddenly find their games on Bermuda greens with heat, humidity, and wind.

So remember, we are looking for off-the-wall players who may have played poorly since the tour was in Florida last year.  Also, DraftKings has made a change in pricing players.  The top players are more money, and we see more players with a price over $10,000.  This week, there are five of them and 15 players over $9,000; in the past, it’s been about 12.  On the good end, the lowest price player was $6,000.  This week, they have 59 players between $5,000 and $5,900, so it’s important to scrutinize them for ones that will make the cut.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

Rory McIlroy – $12,200

Cameron Young – $10,700

Matt Fitzpatrick – $10,600

Russell Henley – $10,200

Tom Kim – $10,100

Eric Cole – $9,900

J.T. Poston – $9,800

Sungjae Im – $9,700

Min Woo Lee – $9,600

Byeong Hun An – $9,500

Chris Kirk – $9,400

Shane Lowry – $9,300

Daniel Berger – $9,200

Corey Conners – $9,100

Keith Mitchell – $9,000

We are now in a tournament that, nobody has dominated on a course that is hard to dominate on.    Remember this: this course has played tough in past years due to the wind. Forecasts predict the winds will be very manageable, as Thursday will be 11 mph and 15 mph on Friday. Things get better as winds will be between 10 and 12 mph over the weekend. The long-range forecast shows no rain for the first three days, but there could be scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.

Again, try your hardest to pick six guys to make the cut. Our top pick is the 2020 champion Rory McIlroy at $12,200. Since winning in Dubai in January, he has struggled with his game. He is playing PGA National for the first time since 2018, and despite winning in 2012 and losing a playoff in 2014, he has struggled on this course. I realize he has played the best of anyone else in the field on Florida courses, but I will take a pass on Rory; his price is too high. I have the same problem with Cameron Young at $10,700; his price is too high. He has played in five events in Florida in his career, and his best finish was T-10th at the Palmer last year. Sorry, I don’t like him this week. Matt Fitzpatrick at $10,600 is also a problem. First, he has not played well since the Hero, but remember, the course conditions at the Hero in the Bahamas are like playing in Florida. His record in Florida is good, giving you something to think about, but I am passing on him. Russell Henley at $10,200 is my first buy. His record on Florida courses is good, and he plays the best in the Cognizant, an event he won in 2014. He played great in Hawaii, so I like him this week. Tom Kim at $10,100 is a no for me. He didn’t play terribly but had nothing to write home about. I just think Florida needs to match his game. Eric Cole at $9,900, is, on paper, a perfect pick; he was runner-up last year and played well on the West Coast. I wonder if the previous year will help him; I don’t usually like guys the year after he was runner-up. J.T. Poston at $9,800 is a tough choice. He has played great this year but has struggled in Florida, sorry price is too high for him. Sungjae Im at $9,700 is appealing, but I wouldn’t say I like how he has played on the West Coast and think it’s best to take a pass on him at his high price. Min Woo Lee at $9,600, is a person to think about, I know that he didn’t play well on the West Coast, but think he is ready for the next few weeks of golf. It could be a good week for Byeong Hun An at $9,500. He has had two top-five finishes and could be perfect this week. Defending champion Chris Kirk at $9,400 is worth the look, but I will take a pass on him at the end of the day. Shane Lowry at $9,300 is worth the price. He likes playing at PGA National, has made six of six cuts, and was T-5th last year and 2nd in 2022. Daniel Berger at $9,200 is also a toss-up; he is returning after taking 2023 to heal and is on the cusp. He plays well in Florida and has been 4th the last two years in the Cognizant, so worth the price. Many will take Corey Conners at $9,100, but I don’t see it. He has made his last 12 cuts, but in 2024, his best finish is T-24th at the Genesis. The topper, for me, has never played well at PGA National. Keith Mitchell at $9,000 is a tough choice, yes plays well at PGA National but has struggled in the last year.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Stephan Jaeger at $8,800, is a player to watch, he makes a lot of cuts and is high on earning DraftKings points. He was T-3rd last week in Mexico, and I can see him continuing the excellent play. Matthieu Pavon at $8,700 will be on people’s minds, but he has never played in Florida, and I can see him struggle this week despite winning in San Diego and finishing T-3rd at Pebble. Sepp Straka at $8,600 is worth looking at. He plays well at PGA National, and I see him enjoying the Florida swing. Tom Hoge at $7,900, is a player to watch. He has played well in 2024, which could carry over to this week. Rickie Fowler is $7,500 and worth the look. Yes, he struggled on the West Coast but returned to Florida, and on this course, he won and was runner-up.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Yes, with DrafKing’s new point structure, there are a lot of bargains. Look at Adam Schenk at $7,200. I like his consistent play. He struggled on the West Coast, and the change of coast will do him good. This is a good week for Akshay Bhatia at just $6,900. He makes a lot of birdies and can earn a lot of DraftKings points. He has shown that he can do well on Bermuda, so watch him. Justin Suh at $6,800, is someone you have to pick. He had a tough West Coast swing, but the change of coasts will do him good. Brandon Wu is only $6,600 and a good choice for making the cut and getting a lot of DraftKings points. Lee Hodges at $6,500, is also a great pick, played well in Florida and plays well at PGA National. Also, it’s time for Gary Woodland at $6,500, to play well. Coming back for brain surgery, he has shown some progress and made his first cut at the Genesis. Like Woodland at PGA National, he made nine cuts in nine starts; his best finish was T-2nd in 2017. His last two Cognizant starts were T-5th in 2022 and T-8th in 2020. After winning in Palm Springs and turning pro, Nick Dunlap who is $6,000, flopped. But now it’s time for him to come back. Sam Ryder at $5,900, is a good pick because in his three starts at Cognizant, he was T-9th in 2022, T-8th in 2021, and T-53rd in 2020.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Honda Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

• At the Cognizant and PGA National, historically, all of the winners have some connection to playing well on Bermuda like last year’s champion Chris Kirk.  Another thing they could either being born in Florida, South Africa, or Australia or have moved to the Southeast like 2022 champion Sepp Straka.  He was born in Vienna, Austria, and moved to all places in Valdosta, Georgia, at the age of 14.  So he grew up on Bermuda and plays well in the wind.  You also have 2019 champion Keith Mitchell who lives in St. Simons Island, Georgia.  2018 winner Justin Thomas now lives just down the road from PGA National and with 2017 winner Rickie Fowler.  Even defending champion Sungjae Im bought a house in Atlanta and liked to stay a lot with relatives in the Tampa Bay area. There is also a connection with those like past champions Ernie Els, Camilo Villegas, Padraig Harrington, and Rory McIlroy, who have homes in Jupiter, Florida.  Even Adam Scott has a home in the Bahamas with the same conditions as Florida courses. Even guys like 2007 winner Mark Wilson, who was born in Wisconsin and lived in Illinois, have a connection.  He went to school in North Carolina, so you can see why his five PGA Tour have been on Bermuda courses in Florida, Mexico, Hawaii, Phoenix, and Palm Springs.  2004 winner Russell Henley grew up in Macon, Georgia, and lives on Kiawah Island, which could understand why his two PGA Tour and three Korn Ferry tour wins are on courses with Bermuda grass.  So look for players with that Bermuda connections.  Even 2021 champion Matt Jones, despite living in Scottsdale, Arizona, was born and raised in Australia and learned to play on Bermuda and wind.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

Unbelievable and bizarre stat:

• PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand. Look for scores to be a bit high, especially when the wind blows. This will be the first time players see Bermuda fairways, rough, and greens on the year that haven’t been overseeded with rye, so it will take some getting used to.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance. The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways surrounded by water and sand along the fairways and in the middle of several of them. Hitting greens is very important. Since moving to PGA National in 2007, 11 of the 17 winners and 14 of the 24 runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top ten in greens hit.
• Very tough par 4s at PGA National: Mark Wilson was 4 under in ’07, Ernie Els was 2 under in ’08, Y.E. Yang was 6 under in ’09, while Camilo Villegas was 9 under par in ’10. Keeping the trend going was Rory Sabbatini in 2011, playing them in 7 under, but showing that they are tough was Rory McIlroy, who was only 3 under in 2012, Michael Thompson, who was only 2 under on them in 2013, and Russell Henley who was 6 under in 2014. In 2015, Padraig Harrington played them in 5 under, while Adam Scott was 4 under in 2016. In 2017, Rickie Fowler was 5 under on the par 4s, while 2018 winner Justin Thomas was 1 under. In 2019, Keith Mitchell proved how tough the par 4s played as he was even par for the week, and 2020 champion Sungjae Im was one over par on the par 4s. In 2021, Matt Jones played the par 4s in five under. Sepp Straka did the same 5 under in his 2022 win, while last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, played them in 9 under in his victory.
• Good putting and scrambling. The massive greens have many contours so that the winner will be a perfect lag putter.
• It is interesting to note that 11 of the last 20 winners of the Honda are those that are either born Floridians or now live in Florida (unfortunately, defending champion Chris Kirk, Sepp Straka, and 2019 winner Keith Mitchell don’t qualify even though Mitchell’s St. Simon’s Island home is in Georgia next to the Florida border and Straka also lives in Georgia). A perfect example is 2006 champion Luke Donald. Even though he was born in Great Britain and spent most of his time in Chicago, he had a house just a few miles away. Look for that kind of connection in the winner. We don’t count 2013 winner Michael Thompson on our list, but he lives in Birmingham, Alabama, so he always has to deal with Bermuda when he is home. The same is true with 2014 winner Russell Henley, who lives on Kiawah Island, South Carolina, and again has a Bermuda connection. Now, we can’t consider Padraig Harrington as a “Floridan” even though he has had a place in Florida and has spent time there, while Adam Scott grew up playing on Bermuda grass and in winds that will be around this week. Oh, 2018 winner Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler live just up the road in Jupiter and play into the scenario of picking a player with local roots.
• Good bunker player since there are a lot of strategically placed bunkers on the course.
• Look for those that play well in the wind; look at 2015 & ’05 champion Padraig Harrington along with 2018 champion Justin Thomas and 2017 winner Rickie Fowler, 2016 winner Adam Scott, and 2021 champion Matt Jones. All are from areas with winds in Ireland, Kentucky, California, and Australia, so nobody is better qualified after learning to play golf in these areas. The good news is that the winds will be light most of the week.