Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Fantasy Stats

Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 7th – 10th, 2024

Bay Hill Club

Orlando, FL

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,466

Purse: $20 million

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Kurt Kitayama

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth of eight designated events of the year and will have a great field.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 72.66, and it was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The conditions weren’t perfect, as the winds blew with gusts up to 23 mph on Friday and Saturday, but the course conditions were soft, and the course played the easiest since 2019.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Bay Hill for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 73.89, was the 4th hardest of the 50 courses that year (Reason for the high average, high wins up to 20 mph over the weekend)
*2021 – Average was 73.02, it was the 9th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 74.11, and it was the hardest of 41 courses played that year (The course was dry and fast, and each day saw gusts to 22 to 25mph)
*2019 – Average was 72.38, was 9th hardest of 49 courses that year

As we can see, the course is very tough, with 103 bunkers with water coming into play on nine of the 18 holes. The rough and hard greens, along with the elements of wind, make the course a true brute. But could there be a significant change this week? Last week at the Cognizant, we saw record scores as they changed the tenth hole from a par 4 to 5, plus they kept the rough low. But the weather was vital; even with the rain delaying the event to Monday, there was a lack of wind, which made the course much more accessible.
The folks who run the Arnold Palmer Invitational have never made Bay Hill any easier over the past few years. But with conditions this year, Thursday and Friday will be perfect with winds under 10 mph. The wind will return on Saturday, with gusts up to 20 mph, and Sunday will bring showers and winds. But the pros will get a break to start things off.

So, what are the keys to picking a winner this week? It’s said that ball striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn’t the case at Bay Hill, where hitting lots of greens is essential. Between 1997 and 2008, there wasn’t a winner that didn’t finish out of the top 20 of greens hit for the week.  In 2009, Tiger Woods changed that when he finished T50th, but since then, ten of the last 14 winners were in the top 9, including last year’s champion Kurt Kitayman, who led the greens hit category, hitting 51 of 92 greens. Since 199, six champions have led the green in regulation category. (Phil Mickelson in 1997, Tiger Woods in 2003 & ’12, Keny Perry in 2005, Marc Leishman in 2017 and Kitayama in 2023 ).
So yes, Greens in Regulation is important.

Our #1 category for this week is Strokes Gained tee-to-green:
This stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for Bay Hill over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 7th in greens hit last year and 2nd in 2022. It was 5th in Greens in Regulation in 2021 and 1st in Greens hit in 2020, the norm for any year of perfect weather. In 2020, it ranked 5th in 2019 and 17th in 2018.
In driving accuracy, the course was 19th last year, 16th in 2022, 12th in 2021, 10th in 2020, 26th in 2019, and 39th in 2018. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
In driving distance for all holes, the course ranked 11th last year with a 287.2 average.
In 2022, it ranked 13th with an average drive of 285.8.
In 2021, it ranked 6th with an average drive of 281.7.
In 2020, it ranked T-9th with an average drive of 282.4.
In 2019, it ranked 14th with an average drive of 282.0.
In 2018, it ranked 10th with an average drive of 280.7.
Last year, tournament winner Kurt Kitayama ranked 57th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.0 yards per drive, and was T-1st in Fairways hit (39 of 54) and T-1st in greens hit (51 of 72). Between the three stats, he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit and their rank in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 13th in driving distance with an average drive of 285.8 yards (out of 50 courses), 16th in driving accuracy, and 2nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 7th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 295.3 yards per drive, T-55th in accuracy, hitting 29 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 44 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 6th in driving distance with an average drive of 281.7 yards (out of 51 courses), 13th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 1st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 304.9 yards per drive, T-25th in accuracy, hitting 32 of 54 fairways, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – The course ranked T-9th in driving distance with an average drive of 2982.4 yards (out of 41 courses), 10th in driving accuracy, and 1st in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 34th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.3 yards per drive, T-33rd in accuracy, hitting 30 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2019 – The course ranked 14th in driving distance with an average drive of 282.0 yards (out of 49 courses), 26th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-31st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 284.4 yards per drive, T-3rd in accuracy, hitting 43 of 54 fairways, and T-6th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Proximity to hole. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 7th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 12 years, nine of the winners have been in the top 9 in greens hit; taking it a step further, five of those same champions finished in the top two, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner, Kurt Kitayama, hit 51 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his one-shot victory over Rory McIlroy and Harris English. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 11th as the field averaged 39 feet, 5 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Kitayama, ranked 3rd and averaged 32 feet, two inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with proximity to hole for the Arnold Palmer winners the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and T-3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and three inches.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and 11 inches.
2021 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 6th in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 11 inches.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd in Greens in Regulation and T-54th in proximity to hole, averaging 43 feet and three inches.
2020 – The course ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation (out of 41 courses) and 2nd in proximity to hole, averaging 44 feet and one inch.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and 11 inches.
2019 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 1 inch.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-6th in Greens in Regulation and 18th in proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and no inches.

Our third category is Scrambling, mainly because of its history, where many greens are missed. Since Bay Hill is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, it ranked 25th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 58.39% of the time, while winner Kurt Kitayama ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 21 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of the Arnold Palmer winners over the last few years:
2022 – Bay Hill finished 7th in scrambling, getting it up and down 52.88% of the time
Winner Scottie Scheffler was ranked 40th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 28 greens he missed.
2021 – Bay Hill finished 19th in scrambling, getting it up and down 56.80% of the time
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was ranked 10th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 15th in scrambling, getting it up and down 57.01% of the time
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 20 of the 30 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 27th in scrambling, getting it up and down 59.77% of the time
Winner Francesco Molinari was ranked 5th, getting it up and down in 19 of the 24 greens he missed.
The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our last critical category is Putting inside Ten Feet. In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. The greens at Bay Hill are some of the best on the PGA Tour to putt on. The big reason is the lack of undulation, making the greens easy to read; thus, a lot of putts can be made. The most crucial aspect is to make putts inside ten feet; last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill ranked 31st (out of 41 courses) in making putts inside ten feet as the field made 88.49% of the putts in that range. As for winner Kurt Kitayama, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting for the week but was T-30th in Putting inside ten feet, making 62 of 69 putts. It shows how perfect the greens at Bay Hill are in making putts when you consider that Kitayama only missed seven putts inside ten feet (89.86%). For the week, Robby Shelton led that stat, with an average of 97.06%, as he only missed two putts in that distance, so it shows that putts can be made.

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet of the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners for the last few years:
2022 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.64% of the putts were made, which was the 5th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 17th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 61 of 75 putts inside ten feet (81.33%) and ranked 76th. Scheffler’s Achilles’ heel in putting was that he had 25 putts between five and nine feet and only made nine of them.
2021 – For those putting inside ten feet, 88.14% of the putts were made, which was the 24th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting, making 64 of 69 putts inside ten feet (92.75%) and ranking T-12th. DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet in and made 58.
2020 – 87.84% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 15th hardest of the 29 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 63 of 70 putts inside ten feet (90.00%) and ranked 21st.
2019 – 88.95% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 32nd hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Francesco Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 60 of 65 putts inside ten feet (92.31%) and ranked 16th. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches; in the 56 putts he had of seven feet or under, he only missed once.
In 2018, McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the key to winning that year.
The same is true with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the key for him winning.
The same thing happened with the 2016 champion, Jason Day. He was 6th in Storkes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one, so you can see that you can see that putting is essential for those who have won at Bay Hill.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years, Bay Hill has always been in the top 20 in Driving Accuracy, and Greens hit; last year, it ranked 7th in Greens in Regulation and 19th in Driving accuracy.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin; last year, it was 11th, with each shot ending up 39 feet, five inches from the hole.

*Scrambling: Of the 58 courses on tour in 2023, Bay Hill got it up and down 58.39% of the time, ranking 25th. So it’s essential for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. In 2016, Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses, while last year, it ranked 31st out of 58 courses, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

67 of the 69 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.