BlogArnold Palmer Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Tour is back at Bay Hill, which was the pride and joy of Arnold Palmer. This will be the eighth time this event has returned to Bay Hill without Palmer. Despite the concern that marquee names wouldn’t attend the last few years, that isn’t the case, as it’s a designated event with a top prize of $3.6 million. So, just about anybody that is anybody is playing this week. That is good because if the event isn’t a designated event next year, many will probably not go.

As we said last week, it’s not about the course, the money, the sponsor, or how the tournament is run. Again, it’s all about the scheduling, and players can’t play week in and week out. Unfortunately, the fields will be weak at the Valspar and the Houston Open, but the Valero Texas Open may have a better field because players want to get ready for Augusta. Still, with the Masters six weeks away, we have a great stretch of golf.

One thing to think about is that no matter how good the folks running the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you will never substitute Arnold Palmer, who had a critical role in this event. The tournament and course had been his pride and joy for nearly four decades since he bought the course in 1976 and had the Florida Citrus Open transferred to Bay Hill in 1979. Not only did Palmer tinker with the course each year to make it fresh, but Palmer also used to contact and write letters to players asking them to play. You just had to play in the event when you get a letter from Palmer. Byron Nelson used to do that for his tournament. No matter what you thought about the course, you wouldn’t say no to Palmer or Nelson, down to the point that when players didn’t play, like Bubba Watson a couple of years ago, they would come over and meet with Palmer to explain their reason for being absent.

So, unfortunately, even though each week has a great event with powerful sponsors, some events will only get some of the marquee names to play in. So, it will be interesting to see how the Arnold Palmer Invitational will cope in the coming years. It’s evident that even with a purse of $20 million and a first-place check of $3.6 million, you just aren’t going to get everyone to play.

Things you need to know about the Arnold Palmer Invitational

According to the PGA Tour, this will be the 59th Arnold Palmer Invitational, which started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open. But if you look around, there is no big splash. You can’t find anywhere in any of the material that the tournament puts out anything raving about its 59th anniversary.

There is a good reason for that.

If you asked Arnold Palmer, he only counted the years when the event moved to Bay Hill, so this would be the 46th time this tournament has been played. The event started in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, and it barely survived when Arnold Palmer and his associates took over in 1978. They gave new life to the event by moving it to Bay Hill in 1979. In the 44 years since it changed to the Bay Hill Club, the tournament has been elevated to a level considered one of the premier stops on tour, as voted by the players.

Some other things to consider from past winners of the Palmer:

• One streak that broke last year was that 16 of the previous 16 champions made the cut the previous time they played in the Palmer. But Kurt Kitayama had never played in the Palmer, bringing up another record. Before Kitayama’s win, only Bob Byman in 1979 and Robert Gamez in 1990 won in their rookie Bay Hill start, and in a way, Byman doesn’t matter since it was the first time the event was at Bay Hill.
• 26 of the last 27 Palmer winners had at least one previous career PGA Tour or European Tour victory.  The only player to win with no victories before winning the Palmer was Matt Every in 2014.
• 26 of the last 28 champions had at least one other top-ten in that season
• 16 of the previous 19 winners had a top-20 finish in another Palmer start and had played in at least three Arnold Palmers.

Course information:

• Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Orlando, Fl.
• 7,466 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 73.9 rating and a slope rating of 136 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay at the resort and its members.

The average green size at Bay Hill is 6,500 square feet, which is a little over the PGA Tour average.  The course has 103 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 72.66, and it was the 10th most challenging course on the PGA Tour.  In 2020, it was the hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 74.11 average due to high winds all week.

Dick Wilson and Joe Lee initially designed and built the course in 1960.

It’s funny how Arnold Palmer got associated with it. In 1948, 73 years ago, Palmer played college golf at Wake Forest, and they made a trip down to Orlando to play against Rollins College.  According to Orlando Sentinel writer Mike Bianchi, Palmer loved the area and the beauty of Orlando.  Orlando was still 21 years before DisneyWorld and was not considered a big area. Still, Palmer loved it so much that he considered transferring to Rollins College.  But he stayed at Wake Forest and ten years later became the top golfer in the world.  But Palmer still had Orlando in the back of his mind, and in 1965, those memories were rekindled.

In the early 1960s, when Bay Hill opened, Palmer and Jack Nicklaus played an exhibition tournament at the course, and the King was so attracted to Bay Hill that he got together a group of investors and leased the club with an option to buy it.  In January of 1976, the group purchased the course, and since then, until his death, Palmer would spend most of the winter in a condo behind Bay Hill.  Palmer loved to tinker with the course. Since Palmer left the Champions tour and had more time on his hands around 2000, he spent lots of time making changes, probably the biggest coming in 2007 when he took the par 5, 4th, and 16th holes and converted them into par 4s, thus reducing the par of the course to 70.  That didn’t last long as Palmer changed his mind again in 2010 and changed the par back on the 4th and 16 holes as the course returned to a par 72.

Only about ten years ago, when he started slowing down, Palmer would constantly tinker with something on the course, making small changes here and there, but there have been no changes in eight years.  Despite the club not tinkering with the course anymore, there is always one thing consistent each year: rough, which is very high and difficult to get out of and helps bring scores up each year.  We can see a bit of a trend, scores were high with the winners between 2012 and 2014 at 13 under par, but in the two years Matt Every won, he was 13 under in 2014 and 19 under in 2015.  In 2016, Jason Day was 17 under par; two years later, Rory McIlroy was 18 under par, and it hasn’t decreased since then.

Bay Hill received a facelift before the 2016 event as all the greens on the course were re-grassed with Emerald Bermuda, making the greens roll more accurately and faster.  The fairways and tees were also re-grassed with Celebration bermudagrass.  One last change was when they closely mowed areas around the green, which meant chipping and scrambling were more laborious than in past years. The scores hovered right around that 15 under total until severe weather brought the winning score down to 4 under in 2020 by Tyrrell Hatton.  In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau won with an 11 under figure; in 2022, Scottie Scheffler won at 5 under, while Kurt Kitayama was 9 under last year.  But with lots of wind, it’s guaranteed that the winning score will be around that 5 under figure, like  Scheffler in 2022.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Bay Hill:

This is based on the most important stats for Bay Hill, data from last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth of eight designated events of the year and will have a great field.

The field’s scoring average at Bay Hill last year was 72.66, and it was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The conditions weren’t perfect, as the winds blew with gusts up to 23 mph on Friday and Saturday, but the course conditions were soft, and the course played the easiest since 2019.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Bay Hill for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 73.89, was the 4th hardest of the 50 courses that year (Reason for the high average, high wins up to 20 mph over the weekend)
*2021 – Average was 73.02, it was the 9th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Average was 74.11, and it was the hardest of 41 courses played that year (The course was dry and fast, and each day saw gusts to 22 to 25mph)
*2019 – Average was 72.38, was 9th hardest of 49 courses that year

As we can see, the course is very tough, with 103 bunkers with water coming into play on nine of the 18 holes. The rough and hard greens, along with the elements of wind, make the course a true brute. But could there be a significant change this week? Last week at the Cognizant, we saw record scores as they changed the tenth hole from a par 4 to 5, plus they kept the rough low. But the weather was vital; even with the rain delaying the event to Monday, there was a lack of wind, which made the course much more accessible.
The folks who run the Arnold Palmer Invitational have never made Bay Hill any easier over the past few years. But with conditions this year, Thursday and Friday will be perfect with winds under 10 mph. The wind will return on Saturday, with gusts up to 20 mph, and Sunday will bring showers and winds. But the pros will get a break to start things off.

So, what are the keys to picking a winner this week? It’s said that ball striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn’t the case at Bay Hill, where hitting lots of greens is essential. Between 1997 and 2008, there wasn’t a winner that didn’t finish out of the top 20 of greens hit for the week.  In 2009, Tiger Woods changed that when he finished T50th, but since then, ten of the last 14 winners were in the top 9, including last year’s champion Kurt Kitayman, who led the greens hit category, hitting 51 of 92 greens. Since 199, six champions have led the green in regulation category. (Phil Mickelson in 1997, Tiger Woods in 2003 & ’12, Keny Perry in 2005, Marc Leishman in 2017 and Kitayama in 2023 ).
So yes, Greens in Regulation is important.

Our #1 category for this week is Strokes Gained tee-to-green:
This stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for Bay Hill over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 7th in greens hit last year and 2nd in 2022. It was 5th in Greens in Regulation in 2021 and 1st in Greens hit in 2020, the norm for any year of perfect weather. In 2020, it ranked 5th in 2019 and 17th in 2018.
In driving accuracy, the course was 19th last year, 16th in 2022, 12th in 2021, 10th in 2020, 26th in 2019, and 39th in 2018. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
In driving distance for all holes, the course ranked 11th last year with a 287.2 average.
In 2022, it ranked 13th with an average drive of 285.8.
In 2021, it ranked 6th with an average drive of 281.7.
In 2020, it ranked T-9th with an average drive of 282.4.
In 2019, it ranked 14th with an average drive of 282.0.
In 2018, it ranked 10th with an average drive of 280.7.
Last year, tournament winner Kurt Kitayama ranked 57th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.0 yards per drive, and was T-1st in Fairways hit (39 of 54) and T-1st in greens hit (51 of 72). Between the three stats, he ranked 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit and their rank in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 13th in driving distance with an average drive of 285.8 yards (out of 50 courses), 16th in driving accuracy, and 2nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 7th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 295.3 yards per drive, T-55th in accuracy, hitting 29 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 44 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 8th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 6th in driving distance with an average drive of 281.7 yards (out of 51 courses), 13th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 1st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 304.9 yards per drive, T-25th in accuracy, hitting 32 of 54 fairways, and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – The course ranked T-9th in driving distance with an average drive of 2982.4 yards (out of 41 courses), 10th in driving accuracy, and 1st in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 34th in driving distance (all holes), averaging 282.3 yards per drive, T-33rd in accuracy, hitting 30 of 54 fairways, and T-9th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2019 – The course ranked 14th in driving distance with an average drive of 282.0 yards (out of 49 courses), 26th in driving accuracy, and 5th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-31st in driving distance (all holes), averaging 284.4 yards per drive, T-3rd in accuracy, hitting 43 of 54 fairways, and T-6th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Proximity to hole. In our ranking, we consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 7th in greens in regulation, again reflecting the easy scoring conditions with the weather. Still, for the previous 12 years, nine of the winners have been in the top 9 in greens hit; taking it a step further, five of those same champions finished in the top two, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship. Last year’s winner, Kurt Kitayama, hit 51 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his one-shot victory over Rory McIlroy and Harris English. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 11th as the field averaged 39 feet, 5 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Kitayama, ranked 3rd and averaged 32 feet, two inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with proximity to hole for the Arnold Palmer winners the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and T-3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and three inches.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and 11 inches.
2021 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 6th in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 11 inches.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was T-2nd in Greens in Regulation and T-54th in proximity to hole, averaging 43 feet and three inches.
2020 – The course ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation (out of 41 courses) and 2nd in proximity to hole, averaging 44 feet and one inch.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was T-9th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and 11 inches.
2019 – The course ranked 5th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 3rd in proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 1 inch.
Winner Francesco Molinari was T-6th in Greens in Regulation and 18th in proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and no inches.

Our third category is Scrambling, mainly because of its history, where many greens are missed. Since Bay Hill is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, it ranked 25th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 58.39% of the time, while winner Kurt Kitayama ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 21 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of the Arnold Palmer winners over the last few years:
2022 – Bay Hill finished 7th in scrambling, getting it up and down 52.88% of the time
Winner Scottie Scheffler was ranked 40th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 28 greens he missed.
2021 – Bay Hill finished 19th in scrambling, getting it up and down 56.80% of the time
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was ranked 10th, getting it up and down in 15 of the 22 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 15th in scrambling, getting it up and down 57.01% of the time
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was ranked T-7th, getting it up and down in 20 of the 30 greens he missed.
2020 – Bay Hill finished 27th in scrambling, getting it up and down 59.77% of the time
Winner Francesco Molinari was ranked 5th, getting it up and down in 19 of the 24 greens he missed.
The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our last critical category is Putting inside Ten Feet. In looking at the winners’ stats, the one thing that stands out each year is that they either hit a lot of greens and don’t putt that great, or they are super in putting but don’t hit a lot of greens. The greens at Bay Hill are some of the best on the PGA Tour to putt on. The big reason is the lack of undulation, making the greens easy to read; thus, a lot of putts can be made. The most crucial aspect is to make putts inside ten feet; last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill ranked 31st (out of 41 courses) in making putts inside ten feet as the field made 88.49% of the putts in that range. As for winner Kurt Kitayama, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting for the week but was T-30th in Putting inside ten feet, making 62 of 69 putts. It shows how perfect the greens at Bay Hill are in making putts when you consider that Kitayama only missed seven putts inside ten feet (89.86%). For the week, Robby Shelton led that stat, with an average of 97.06%, as he only missed two putts in that distance, so it shows that putts can be made.

Here is a look at the Putting Inside Ten Feet of the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners for the last few years:
2022 – For those putting inside ten feet, 86.64% of the putts were made, which was the 5th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Scottie Scheffler was 17th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 61 of 75 putts inside ten feet (81.33%) and ranked 76th. Scheffler’s Achilles’ heel in putting was that he had 25 putts between five and nine feet and only made nine of them.
2021 – For those putting inside ten feet, 88.14% of the putts were made, which was the 24th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Bryson DeChambeau was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting, making 64 of 69 putts inside ten feet (92.75%) and ranking T-12th. DeChambeau had 61 putts from six feet in and made 58.
2020 – 87.84% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 15th hardest of the 29 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Tyrrell Hatton was 15th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 63 of 70 putts inside ten feet (90.00%) and ranked 21st.
2019 – 88.95% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet, as it was the 32nd hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Francesco Molinari was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting, making 60 of 65 putts inside ten feet (92.31%) and ranked 16th. He was 4th in total putts made at 379 feet, 3 inches; in the 56 putts he had of seven feet or under, he only missed once.
In 2018, McIlroy was 1st in Strokes Gained Putting and 1st in total putting. He had 54 putts of seven feet and didn’t miss a single putt, the key to winning that year.
The same is true with 2017 winner Marc Leishman, who was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting and T-5th in Total Putting. He had 58 putts of seven feet and in and only missed one, the key for him winning.
The same thing happened with the 2016 champion, Jason Day. He was 6th in Storkes Gained Putting and 7th in Total Putting. As for putts inside 7 feet, he had 60 and only missed one, so you can see that you can see that putting is essential for those who have won at Bay Hill.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT BAY HILL:

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is a good barometer on the overall play from drives to hitting into the greens. For years, Bay Hill has always been in the top 20 in Driving Accuracy, and Greens hit; last year, it ranked 7th in Greens in Regulation and 19th in Driving accuracy.

*Proximity to Hole: Average length that a player hits from the pin; last year, it was 11th, with each shot ending up 39 feet, five inches from the hole.

*Scrambling: Of the 58 courses on tour in 2023, Bay Hill got it up and down 58.39% of the time, ranking 25th. So it’s essential for players to make sure to get it up and down on those holes that they miss the greens.

*Putting inside ten feet: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. In 2016, Bay Hill ranked the hardest of the 37 courses, while last year, it ranked 31st out of 58 courses, so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

67 of the 69 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the players stats for the Fantasy Stats.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Cognizant Classic, a total of 64 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least seven events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,300
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
• Viktor Holland – $9,900
• Xander Schauffele – $9,800
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,500
• Jordan Spieth – $9,400
• Sam Burns – $9,300
• Max Homa – $9,200
• Collin Morikawa – $9,100
• Justin Thomas – $9,000

Before you start, you must be aware that even with a limited field of 69 players, there still is a 36-hole cut. Just like at the Genesis three weeks ago, it will be the top 50 and ties, plus any player within ten shots of the 36-hole lead.

Very interesting week, and the top of the list has some people who could win this week. But at the end of the day, we may be better served this week by some players at $9,100 and below. First off is Scottie Scheffler at $11,300, and we know that of anyone in the field, Scheffler always makes a lot of DraftKings points. In the 30 starts he has earned points in, he averages 102.7 points per start, a boatload. His low in the 30 events was 62.5 at the British Open. Gosh, there are people in this field that average 62 points. For the year, he has played in five events with four top-tens, and he averages 106.8 points, so you can see that the cost is high, but the reward is also high. The reason you don’t pick him is the disadvantage he has in the fact that the course is so challenging, it’s hard to make birdies and eagles. Last year, he finished T-4th but only earned 91 points. So, the cost is too high for him to make the points to justify the high price.   The same goes for Rory McIlroy at $10,600; his average of 86.8 an event is insufficient to recover the cost. But McIlroy plays well at Bay Hill. He won in 2018, and in his last seven starts, he has been no higher than 13th and was T-2nd the previous year. I am worried that in his three PGA Tour starts, he was T-66th at Pebble, T-24th at Genesis, and T-21st last week at Cognizant. Still, the one thing about Rory, you never know which Rory will show up. Disregarding his last few starts, he could turn it around quickly. Still, I am passing on Rory this week. Patrick Cantlay at $10,000 is easy to gauge; he always plays his best on challenging, demanding courses, and Bay Hill suited him last year in his first start, finishing T-4th. I could see a top-five for him this week, earning around 95 points. Viktor Holland at $9,900 is also a tough choice. His play has been terrible in 2024; Genesis T-19th was his best finish in three starts. Hovland was T-2nd at Bay Hill in 2022 and T-10th last year. Xander Schauffele at $9,800, is another player to think about. He makes a lot of birdies, but he has yet to play well in this event; as a matter of fact, he is a bust not only in this event but also in Florida. Yes, he was T-2nd at the 2018 Players, but since then, his best Florida finish is T-12th, so he is a big pass for me. Ludvig Aberg at $9,500 is a leap of faith, but he has proven to be an outstanding player since he turned pro. Last year, as an amateur, he finished T-24th at Bay Hill. Jordan Spieth at $9,400 is also hard to gauge. He hasn’t been consistent in 2024 but is a dangerous person for this week because he was T-4th in his only two Bay Hill starts. Sam Burns at $9,300, could be a very savvy pick; he has struggled in the Palmer, missing the cut last year and in 2021. But he was T-9th in 2022 and has played great in 2024. He has won twice at Valspar on another challenging Florida course, so I say this week could be Burns week. Max Homa at $9,200 is a not for me. Played consistently in four Palmer starts, all in the top-25, with the best being a T-10th in 2021. But his game hasn’t been good this year, and that will not change with the tour playing in Florida. The same with Collin Morikawa at $9,100, who has not played well at Bay Hill and has yet to contend in 2024. Justin Thomas at $9,000, is also a no. He hasn’t played well in his two Bay Hill starts, and his putting has presented a problem for him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

As I have said above, the difference in failing or winning comes down to some of these picks. Will Zalatoris at $8,900 is tricky because he has not played well in his three Bay Hill starts. But he finished T-2nd at the Genesis and feels his game is sharp and ready to go. Still, we must remember that Zalatoris has never played well in Florida, but he was T-10th at the Palmer in 2021. Cameron Young at $8,700, is a good pick. He was T-10th at the Palmer last year and has played well in his last three starts, including T-4th last week at the Cognizant. Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,600, has played well at Bay Hill, was 2nd in 2019, and hasn’t been worse than T-14th in five starts since then. But has struggled a bit in 2024, so it’s not worth the gamble. Hideki Matsuyama is only $8,400 and played great in his Genesis win. Before that, his game was OK, but nothing to write home about. But I don’t like him because in nine Bay Hill starts, he only has one top-ten in 2016 when he was T-6th.  Jason Day at $8,200, is an excellent pick because he is feeling great and playing well. He was 6th at Pebble and 9th at Genesis; he won at Bay Hill (2016) and was T-10th last year. Chris Kirk at $7,800 is also worth the money. He was T-8th at Bay Hill in 2021, T-5th in 2022, and T-39th the previous year. His game has been OK this year; remember, he did win at The Sentry. Mexico-winning Jake Knapp is only $7,600, and the reason to take him is he has played well since the Farmers.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Gosh, we picked clean the $7,500 to $8,900 price range. So, are there any bargains? Keegan Bradley at $7,400, is a good pick, has made the cut in 11 of 12 Bay Hill Starts, and has been in the top-11 the last three years. Harris English at $7,300 is worth the cost when considering he was T-2nd the previous year at Bay Hill and has been very consistent in 2024. He was 7th at Genesis. Rickie Fowler at $7,100, is a good pick because he is cheap and has made a lot of cuts at Bay Hill (11 of 12). Look for him to get you points at an affordable price. Erik Van Rooyen is cheap at $6,600 and could be a good haul at a reasonable price. He played well at Cognizant, which could carry over to this week. Also, the week’s buy is Min Woo Lee at $6,600. He has missed two of two Bay Hill cuts, but his game has been sharp, and he was runner-up last week..

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Key stat for the winner:

• Now, it’s easy to point out how the winners have been in greens hit, but what has the trend been for everyone in the field?  The pattern is that more folks are hitting more greens.  In 2009, Bay Hill had the hardest greens to hit.  In a way, the wind helped make that stat. The weekend saw high winds with gusts up to 30 mph, but only 55.02 of the greens were hit that year.  The following year, it jumped to 61.25% and was ranked 9th, and the number has stayed about the same with its ranking going up; in 2011, it ranked 15th on the PGA Tour.  In 2012, it climbed to 20th place and then 16th place in 2013.  In 2014, it ranked 23rd, and more players hit more greens, with the average going up to 64.00%.  With the lack of wind and great weather, 2015 was a banner year for the players as they hit 68.41%, making it the 35th highest on the PGA Tour.  In 2016, it was the 14th hardest, with a field average of 60.98, the least amount since 2009.  In 2017, the course was the 7th hardest, with a field average of 58.71, while in 2018, with the lack of wind, the course was the 17th hardest on tour, with an average of 50.53.  In 2020, the course was the hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 74.11 average; in 2019, Bay Hill was the 5th hardest, with an average of 57.64.  In 2021, the course was 5th hardest in greens hit as the field hit 56.84 as the course played to a 73.02 average, 9th hardest on tour.  In 2023, Bay Hill was the 2nd hardest in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 54.70 greens, one of the reasons the course was the 4th hardest on the PGA Tour. Last year, Bay Hill was 7th in Greens hit with a 58.38 average, and the scoring average was 72.66 as the course ranked 10th.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• This is the last tournament before the Players Championship, the most important PGA Tour event.  After that, the Masters is five weeks away.
• Kenny Perry had a perfect combination of being ranked fourth in driving distance and accuracy in 2005.  Look for accuracy to once again prevail and look for another player like Perry that combines straight driving with a bit of length.  So, how do we determine a player like this?  Look at the total driving stat that combines distance and accuracy ranks to help determine your winner.  This year’s total driving stats are in our GOLFIQ stat section.  Players like Rory McIlroy and Keith Mitchell are in the top ten.
• Unimportant stat: In eight of the last 24 years, Tiger Woods has been the winner. So what does that mean?  Experience seems important in many tournaments, but not at Bay Hill.   Since 1979, 15 of the winners either became first-time winners or had only won once before, just like last year’s champion Kurt Kitayama and 2023 winner Scottie Scheffler.  Also, 2017 champion Marc Leishman claimed his second PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer.  Matt Every won for the first time at Bay Hill in 2014 (then prevailing for the second time in 2015), Martin Laird in 2011, Rod Pampling in 2006, and Chad Campbell in 2004.  But on the other side of the coin, the tournament has had some great players winning, like 2018 winner Rory McIlroy, 2016 champion Jason Day, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crenshaw, Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Paul Azinger, Payne Stewart, Fuzzy Zoeller and Tiger Woods.
• Birdies and patience are essential at Bay Hill. On most courses, the norm is making lots of birdies to keep pace, but at Bay Hill, pars are just as important.
• The odds are pretty good that the winner will be from either Florida or the Orlando area.  Of the 69 in the field this week, a quarter of the field live in Florida, with a half dozen or so having ties in the Orlando area.
• The weather forecast calls for cloudy skies the first three days, with rain on Sunday. The good news is the wind will be between 10 mph on Thursday and Friday but will get up to 14 mph over the weekend.