BlogPuerto Rico Open Preview and Picks

Things you need to know about the Puerto Rico Open

This will be the 16th Puerto Rico tournament that got started in 2008. This has always been a tournament about second-tier players, giving opportunities to those who didn’t qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player to get himself full status with a win. Unfortunately, the winner gets about anything given to a regular winner except for one crucial invite to the Masters. Augusta won’t invite the winner in Puerto Rico this week. Another snub: the new Ryder Cup list won’t include money earned this year.

Course information:

• Grand Reserve Country Club
• Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
• 7,506 yards     Par 36-36–72

Don’t let the name fool you. Eight years ago, this course was named Trump International. But that was in name only, Trump just managed things, and when the property went into bankruptcy, so did the Trump name. The course has a 77.7 rating and a slope rating of 135 from the championship tees. The course is public and also sells local memberships.

• Last year, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.25 and was the 28th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• In 2022, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.34 and was the 23rd hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• In 2021, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 71.23 and was the 28th hardest course.
• In 2020, Grand Reserve had a scoring average of 70.64 and was the 31st hardest course on tour.
• The hardest it ever played was in 2015, this course was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 72.570 average (high average due to high winds all four days).

The course is part of a 36-hole complex built in 2004 by Tom Kite. The championship course, the lakes and ocean nines, is used for the championship. The 18-hole is flat, with 13 of the 18 holes having water in play for the professionals. There are 62 bunkers, and the greens are 6,000 square feet, which is average size. The course has a special grass, SeaDwarf Paspalum, which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low quality of water to survive. The course is very tough for the average player, while it’s manageable for the pros who will play it this week. Since the course opened, it’s become the best course in Puerto Rico. What makes this course play tough is the weather. If it’s windy, then the course will play tough.

This year the weather will be perfect. Each day, it will be warm, with temperatures in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies. The great news is that winds that play an essential part in scoring will be under 10 mph each day, so look for record scoring.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Cognizant Classic, a total of 64 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

It’s back to a regular tournament, and I will say this. With the field the way it is, and the course playing easy, one of the most critical items you should think about is picking six guys that will make the cut. This will be the hardest event in 2024 to pick players who will participate in four rounds. So make extra sure about your picks and remember the tour is now in Puerto Rico, and players that have done poorly out west may suddenly find their game on seashore paspalum heat, humidity, and wind.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Daniel Berger – $10,500
• Ramus Hojgaard – $10,200
• Aaron Rai – $9,900
• Chris Gotterup – $9,700
• Ben Griffin – $9,600
• Chan Kim – $9,500
• Ryo Hisatsune – $9,200
• Robert MacIntyre – $9,100
• Brandon Wu – $9,000

What makes this event so challenging is that a good amount of the players in the field, the average betters, have never bet on them. We also had to be careful; names we recognize, like Nate Lashley, Rafael Campos, Scott Brown, and Sean O’Hair, are struggling, which is one of the reasons they are playing in Puerto Rico instead of Bay Hill. So the key is to find guys that aren’t playing badly. Also, players that do well on a course with lots of wind.

One essential aspect in picking players is those that make the most cuts.

Here is a list of some of the players that make the most cuts in this event:

• Scott Brown has made 11 cuts in 11 starts
• Rafael Campos has made 9 cuts in 14 starts (has made the cut in his last six starts)
• Jonathan Byrd has made 8 cuts in 9 starts
• D.J. Trahan has made 8 cuts in 9 starts
• Chris Stroud has made 7 cuts in 8 starts
• Josh Teater has made 7 cuts in 8 starts
• Brice Garnett has made 7 cuts in 7 starts
• Ted Potter, Jr. has made 5 cuts in 6 starts
• S.Y. Noh has made 5 cuts in 6 starts
• Bill Haas has made 5 cuts in 5 starts
• Jim Herman has made 5 cuts in 5 starts

Right off the bat, we must decide on Daniel Berger, the top dog at $10,500. The good news is that he has played once in Puerto Rico and was T-2nd in 2019.   He is returning from injury and has made two cuts in four starts. The good news is that he makes a lot of birdies and eagles, so that is good. I think he will do well and may be worth it despite his high cost.   Ramus Hojgaard at $10,200 is a no because of this; he has never played this event and has not fared well in making DraftKings points. Missed the cut at Cognizant last week, but on the DP World Tour has played well, including a runner-up finish in the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. He has been in the top 11 in his last seven DP World starts. So, he is a tossup. Aaron Rai at $9,900, is playing in Puerto Rico for the first time. He does make a lot of DraftKings points; he averages 61.9 points per event, and he has played in 36 events. So he is a tossup, frankly worried about his lack of playing courses on oceans. Chris Gotterup at $9,700 is a no for me; yes, he was T-7th in Puerto Rico in 2022, but he has not played well of late. Ben Griffin at $9,600 is a yes for me. He only played once in Puerto Rico and was T-49th in 2019, but he makes many birdies and has been OK on tour. Chan Kim at $9,500, is a yes, has played well in 2024, including a T-8th in Mexico and T-28th at Cognizant. He was T-16th in Puerto Rico in 2022, so I like him. Ryo Hisatsune at $9,200, is a product of the DP World Tour, he had a great 2023, which got him onto the PGA Tour in 2024. He has struggled but made four of six cuts this year and is playing for the first time in Puerto Rico. Robert MacIntyre at $9,100, has played OK the last two weeks in Mexico and Cognizant but playing for the first time in Puerto Rico. Brandon Wu at $9,000, is a great pick, even at the high price. He was T-3rd in Puerto Rica in 2022 and T-7th in 2021; he makes a lot of cuts and does OK point-wise. Was T-13th in Mexico but missed the cut at Cognizant.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

The winner will come from this batch of players. I like Nate Lashley at $8,700 even though he has missed six cuts in his last 7 starts. But the good news is the event he did make the cut was Farmers, and he finished T-3rd, but you take him for his Puerto Rico record. He was T-3rd last year, T-7th in 2022, and T-8th in 2019. I like Michael Kim at $8,600 because of his Puerto Rico record, 5th last year, T-16th in 2022 and 74th in 2021. Defending champion Nico Echavarria is $8,000, and we like what he did last year. Since then, he has had a rough spring and fall but has made a lot of cuts since October. Harry Hall at $7,900 is worth it. He has made a good amount of DraftKings points, and he was T-7th last year in Puerto Rico. Aaron Baddeley at $7,500 is OK because he makes a lot of cuts and is 4 for 4 in Puerto Rico.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

I like Rafael Campos at $7,300 off the bat because he makes a lot of cuts and has played the most of anyone in the field this week. He has made the cut in his last six Puerto Rico starts and can still do well. You take Vince Whaley at $7,200 because he has played well in his two Puerto Rico starts. He was T-15th in 2021 and T-9th in 2020. He has missed four cuts in his last five PGA Tour starts, but he thinks he will do well this week. Martin Laird at $6,700, is worth a look, he was T-9th last week in Cognizant and finished T-6th in Puerto Rico in 2020. David Skinns is $6,500, and you take him because he played in the final group at Cognizant and learned a lot. Camilo Villegas is cheap at $6,400, and we picked him because if he can win in Bermuda, he could do the same in Puerto Rico. Last up is Scott Brown at $5,400. He has missed a lot of cuts and no longer holds a PGA Tour card. We take him for one reason: He has the best record in Puerto Rico. In 11 starts, he has made 11 cuts; he won this event in 2013, and even though he has struggled his last four years in Puerto Rico, he finds a way of making a cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• So what key stats is vital at Grand Reserve? Players that hit it long tend to do better, but the course is a bomber’s paradise. Because of the high winds that hit the course, hitting greens is tough. Last year it was 30th in Greens in Regulation, in 2022 was 25th and in 2021 23rd hardest in greens hit. In 2020 was 26th in 2019, it was 18th, in 2017, it was 49th, in 2016, it was 26th, in 2015, it was the 20th hardest, while in 2014, it was the 38th hardest. Nothing else stands out in looking at all the stats other than driving distance.
• There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event. Since it’s a second-tier event, it combines PGA and Korn Ferry tours. So, there are no absolute favorites because there are no true marquee players. One thing of the past winners, very few of them achieved significant success on the PGA Tour, so this is, for many, just a stepping stone to getting full-time access to the PGA Tour. Yes, Tony Finau won in 2016 and has won many times since on the PGA Tour. In 2020, Viktor Hovland broke the mold by winning in Puerto Rico and winning again on the PGA Tour at Mayakoba. In 2021, Branden Grace won and played well on the PGA Tour before going over to LIV Golf. But 2022 champion Ryan Brehm has struggled and finds himself playing in Puerto Rico this year.  The same with last year’s winner Nico Echavarria who has struggled since last year and returns to defend his title.  The good news, Echavarria played well in Mexico and Cognizant.
• Since 2013, they collected stats, but it is hard to find what type of player wins. So the key is to look at two things: first, past results on this course and how they are playing going into the event. One thing about the winners is that they hit many greens, and seven of the last ten were in the top ten in Greens in Regulation. Last year’s winner Nico Echavarria was T-2nd in hitting 56 of 72 greens.  The year before, Ryan Brehm was T-11th, hitting 53 of 72 greens. The previous year, Branden Grace was T-3rd in greens hit.
• Will a newcomer win this week? Probably. It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.