BlogThe Players Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How time flies fast. To think that just three years ago, golf was getting over COVID-19. At the time, Bryson DeChambeau was a big deal. Dustin Johnson was considered the best player in the world; the PGA Tour shocked the world by raising first place at the Players from $2.25 million to $4.5 million. Three years ago, Phil Mickelson was the most popular player active on the Tour, and the thought of Scottie Scheffler being the best player in the world was absurd. Just a year ago, it would have been unthinkable to think Jon Rahm wouldn’t be playing in this championship.

But in the three years since, more people feel that Scheffler has a brighter future than Rahm, Johnson, Koepka, DeChambeau, or Mickelson. Again, the first-place check of $4.5 million awaits the winner of this week’s Players Championship. To show you how shocking that figure is, in 1998, the total purse of the Players Championship was $4 million, with it going up to $5 million in 1999.

Things are more manageable this week, thanks to Scottie Scheffler’s winning at the Palmer. Of course, the questions will be asked about those not in the field. Writers will write that the field is not as good as it was just three years ago, but still, things are going along just fine. Yes, we miss Rahm, Dustin, Brooks, and Joaquin, but I suspect things will be different next year. The Saudis who are paying for LIV golf may not renew it. Most of the players from the original year are on three-year contracts, which end at the end of this year. Not including Rahm or Hatton, we don’t know how long their contracts are. Will the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund want to pay another billion dollars to keep it going? Sure, the league is making deals. I get almost daily emails from LIV Golf on the new partnership they have made, but at the end of the day, the dirty little secret is that the league is not making money; they can’t even pay their expenses without cash from Saudi Arabia.

The good news is that Scottie Scheffler found his putting touch at the Arnold Palmer, and for the last year, the talk was that if Scottie could just make a few putts, he would dominate. Going into the Palmer, his stats for 2024 were very impressive. He was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, gaining .689 shots. In Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 9th, gaining 9.643 shots. In Strokes Gained Approach the Green, he was 1st and gained a whopping 18.343 shots. In Strokes Gained Around-the-Green, he gained 6.167 shots, so from tee to green, he was having the best tee-to-green game of anyone in the game. His Achilles’ heel is putting; we have seen it for a while; anything in the five-foot range was a toss-up. Going into the Palmer, he ranked 144th in Strokes Gained Putting and lost 5.703 shots. In his last event before Bay Hill at the Genesis, he felt better with a new mallet putter and putted a bit better, but was still 51st for the week in Strokes Gained putting and lost 4.359 shots. But things looked better. For the week, he was 1st in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, and 1st in Strokes Gained Around the Green. But in a change of pace, Scheffler was 5th in Strokes Gained Putting, and instead of losing shots, he gained 4.348 shots. The secret, Scheffler showed up with a Spider Tour X in the bag after extensive work with the club at home. The putter is a half-inch longer than Scottie’s previous gamer and features an L-Neck hosel and True Path alignment aid with a full-line sight line on top. Things weren’t great on Thursday as he shot 70 but lost 1.5 shots on the greens as he ranked 55th for the day in S.G. Putting. But things got better. On Friday, Scheffler shot 67, thanks to finishing birdie-birdie-birdie. He made 103 feet of putts and ranked 28th in S.G. Putting for the day, gaining .528 shots. On Saturday, his tee-to-green game wasn’t great, but his putting was great as he was 10th in S.G. Putting, gaining 1.513 shots. But things jelled on Sunday; he shot 66, the low round of the day, which only saw three rounds in the 60s. His putting was great; he made 108 feet of putts, the second best of the day, and was 1st in S.G. putting as he gained 3.896 for the day. For the week, he ranked 5th in S.G. His good putting should be considered a warning sign for his peers that everyone could be in trouble for the next few weeks.

Golf is a much different game now. 

Gambling has become significant, and this week, for picking your pro players, choosing the right player is so important with such a high first-place prize. As for gamblers, The Players Championship is one of the most harrowing events for picking winners. Over time, the course has evolved into a masterpiece and a different course from year in and year out. In looking at the Players Championship, it’s hard to find anyone you can say is the right horse this week for the TPC Sawgrass. In the 41 times that the Players have played at TPC Sawgrass, only four have won it twice: Davis Love III, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Steve Elkington, and Tiger Woods. Of all the tournaments played for over 20 years on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship is the only non-fall, full-field event the defending champion has yet to win. Looking at the Players Championship field, it’s hard to pinpoint a horseplayer for this course, but if anyone had a chance to win back-to-back, it’s Scheffler this week.

To show how hard this event has been on every player, in looking at the 144 in the field this week (with 22 playing for the first time), the most top-tens is just four; Adam Scott, who has played in 21 Players, Rory McIlroy, who has played in 13 Players, Jason Day and Francesco Molinari who both have played in 12 Players. Of those in the field, only two, which will surprise you, have three top-ten finishes: Brian Harman and Justin Rose. Of the 122 players in the Players, 85 have never finished in the top ten. This shows that there are only a few favorites based on past performance.

Give an example of how you can’t count anyone as a favorite. Rory McIlroy won in 2019, and when he was defending champion in 2021, he missed the cut. The same applies to Jason Day, who won the Players in 2016. He missed the cut the prior year, and in five previous visits to The Players before the win, he missed the cut three of the five years. Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, played twice before his victory; he was T-55th in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021. 2021 champion Justin Thomas had played in five previous Players and only had one top-ten, so you couldn’t say he was a “horse for the course.” Look at some of the best young players 7th ranked Patrick Cantlay has played in six Players and had his best finish last year, T-19th, but missed the cut in his previous three starts. 6th ranked Xander Schauffele. He finished T-2nd in his first start in 2018 but missed three cuts in a row before finishing T-19th last year. Now, 4th ranked Viktor Hovland comes into this year with some good past results. He missed the cut in his first start in 2021 but since then was T-9th in 2022 and T03rd last year. Talking about top-ranked players globally, you can’t find a player with more honors than Justin Rose has won around the world, but in 18 starts at the Players, he has only three top-tens, the best being T-4th in 2014. He was T-6th last year

The list of 36 champions is awe-inspiring as many of the best golfers of the last 41 years have won the Players. Still, the TPC Sawgrass has this amazing aurora, and we can say that there has never been anyone or a set of golfers that have dominated over TPC Sawgrass. The term “Horses for Courses” is a gambling term used in golf, indicating those golfers who do their best on specific courses. Just look at Tiger Woods. He won nine times at Torrey Pines, eight times at Bay Hill and Firestone Country Club, and five times at Augusta National, Cog Hill, and Muirfield Village. Yes, he won The Players twice, but in 19 starts, he only has five top-tens and the two victories to show that even the best in the world has problems playing the course. He hasn’t played the Players since 2019, and I wonder if Woods is finished with this event.

Looking at the world’s best players, Jack Nicklaus played at TPC Sawgrass ten times and never finished higher than T-17th. Tiger Woods won twice and was runner-up in 2000. But in his other 16 starts, he only had two top-ten and just six top-20 finishes, which showed that Tiger might have won twice but had a lot of tough times at Sawgrass. The point is to show that the Players Championship is the hardest of all events to pick a winner. There is no Horse for this course, and even though some of the top names in golf, like Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Nick Price, Davis Love III, and Fred Couples have won, we have also seen players like Craig Perks, Wi Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Fred Funk, and Stephen Ames win in the last 18 years.

Who is hot right now?

Not many players can claim to be “hot” right now. Of course, we can say that Scottie Scheffler is hot, but after that? We could have said that Jake Knapp, who won in Mexico three weeks ago, finished T-4th at Cognizant. But at Bay Hill, he opened with a 77, then shot 81 in the third round to finish T-57th.

Hideki Matsuyama won at Genesis and shot 67-70 to lead after the second round. But he had leg pain over the weekend, shooting 72-76 to finish T-12th. With the possibility of him having pain in his leg, neck, or back, I will not take a gamble on him. Sam Burns looked great after opening rounds of 68-72 at Bay Hill. Burns has four top-tens in five starts and was in contention in the final round but hit his tee shot out of bounds on Sunday, leading to a triple-bogey. He made another triple on the back nine and shot 78 to finish T-30th. His hot stretch may be over.

Wyndham Clark did finish 2nd at Bay Hill. He won at Pebble last month, so maybe he is a person to watch, but his record at Sawgrass is dismal. In five starts, he only made one cut, finishing T-27th last year.

If we look at a person who could have a great week, it could be Will Zalatoris.  Coming back from surgery in which he took 8 months off, he was slow to start but was T-2d at the Genesis and T-4th at Bay Hill. Will has played three times at the Players, and his best finish was 21st in his debut in 2021. I have to like him the best of anyone else.

One thing to know about the players is that each year has its share of long shots that do well. Last year, Min Woo Lee had a part of the lead in the early stages of the final round before finishing T-6th.  Nobody knew who Doug Ghim was, but he finished T-6th in 2022. Nobody knew much of Brian Harman in 2021 until he finished T-3rd. In 2016, nobody knew about Francesco Molinari until he finished T-7th at the Players; the following year, he finished T-6th.

The season is a third over.

It may be early March, but we are playing the 12th of 39 events on Tour for the year. So it’s hard to believe the golf year is this far along. Over the next 25 weeks, along with this week’s Players, we have four majors to play, four more signature events, and three FedEx Cup playoffs, so I guess it’s easy to say this is the start of the massive events on the PGA Tour. But in a way, that isn’t true. In past years, the Players was the first time you could count all the best players in one spot. However, with four designated events played already, the Players is just another designated event, and we have seen the best play in four other events in the last ten weeks.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week, we have the crowning jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 50th edition, played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Besides the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf. In looking at the field over the last couple of years, only one other tournament in golf has gotten more top-100 ranked players, the PGA Championship. Thanks to LIV Golf, those days are probably finished, as the four majors will be the only place where all the best will be together for one event. We continue to see the importance of changing dates from May to March; this will be the fifth time in a row that the Players will be in March. But the course has had a lot of rain in the last couple of weeks, so tournament officials will need help getting a firm and fast course. If the weather does get windy, which isn’t forecast, but you never know since the course is just a mile from the ocean, we could have a very tough course this year. So look for high scores, as the weather and wind will make it challenging.

Many may feel it takes a lot of experience to win the Players? Since the event moved to the Stadium course, 20 different players in their 20s have won, including last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler; 2022 champion, Cameron Smith; 2021 winner, Justin Thomas; 2019 champion, Rory McIlroy; 2017 champion, Si Woo Kim; 2016 champion Jason Day and 2015 winner Rickie Fowler. The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008, Martin Kaymer in 2014, Fowler in 2015, Day in 2016, Kim in 2017 and Rory in 2019. I also bring up guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson, and Tim Clark, who have won so that anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,256 yards     Par 36-36–72

TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration Bermudagrass, while the rough is 419 Bermudagrass. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda with some poa in them, which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course played to a 72.45 average last year and was the 13th toughest course on the Tour.

Here is a look at how hard TPC Sawgrass has played over the years:

                                          Rank compared to

Year         Scoring avg    Other courses

2023             72.449                     13th

2022              72.619                    12th

2021               72.421                    16th

2019                71.513                  23rd

2018               71.409                   29th

2017               73.289                    5th

2016               72.055                   19th

2015               72.083                   18th

2014                72.155                  25th

• The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982. That year, it was very “raw,” with many players complaining that the greens and landing areas had too much slope. Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years, improvements have made the course more “player-friendly.”
• Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players only cared a little about to one of the most loved but most robust courses on Tour. With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course underwent an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways, and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.
• At the same time, 122 yards were added to the course, and the rough was Bermuda instead of rye.
• All of this, plus the new clubhouse, gave the Players a new dimension, making it one of the best tournaments in the world. It may even be considered a major one day.
• A couple of things to know: The average green size is 5,500, which is small and makes the targets harder. Small greens emphasize shotmaking more, but you have to be useful in getting it up and down. Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pros, it comes into play on 11 holes. There are 92 bunkers around the course, along with many waste areas in the fairways.
• Two other things: In 2018 and 2017, the course played to a yardage of 7,189, which is 26 yards shorter than in 2016 before the 12th hole was changed.
• Two years ago, the course went back over 7,200 yards, and 19 yards were added to the 9th hole, making it a 602-yard par 5.

A look at the winners of the Players at TPC Sawgrass:

36 have won the 41 Players Championship since the event moved to its permanent home of TPC Sawgrass. Of those 36 champions, they have.

• *Played in 16,380 PGA Tour events in their careers
• *Won a total of $1,171,950,568. Yes, over a billion dollars have been won by the 36 winners
• *With a total of $79.4 million being won at the Players
• *The 36 have won a total of 478 times on the PGA Tour
• *While 22 of the 36 won a total of 53 major championships
• *Seven of the 36 are members of the World Golf Hall of Fame
• *Eleven of the 36 winners spent a total of 1,371 weeks as world number one.
• (Woods 683 weeks, Greg Norman 311, Rory McIlroy 122, Scottie Scheffler 105, Jason Day 51, Nick Price 44, Fred Couples 16, David Duval 15, Adam Scott 11, Martin Kaymer 8, and Justin Thomas 5 weeks)
• *Of the players’ winners, only two won their first event at the Players, Craig Perks and Tim Clark. For Perks, it was his only win on the PGA Tour, while Clark won again four years later.
• *Of the 36 winners, these nine did it on their second start: Adam Scott, Fred Couples, Hal Sutton, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, Stephen Ames, Steve Elkington and Si Woo Kim.
• *Only four made the Players their last PGA Tour victory: Jerry Pate, Craig Perks, K.J. Choi, and Justin Thomas.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Sawgrass.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, data from last year’s Players Championship, and data from all the field players with stats from 2024. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
In 2019, the Players Championship returned to its March date, thinking the course would have more bite with March winds. When it was played in May, the course played differently due to the heat, but mainly because of the lack of winds. Between 2013 and 2018, the course only played tough once; in 2017, all four days saw the wind blowing 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph over the weekend. The course played to a 73.29 average and was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour. The following year, in 2018, a combination of low winds, thunderstorms, and rain helped make the course play to a 71.41 scoring average, the easiest it has ever played. So it was essential to change dates, and even though they did change dates in 2019 and saw winds in the 8 to 20 mph area each day, the scoring was still low, with the average being 71.51, which ranked T-23rd.
Still, the weather and wind are two of the things that make TPC Sawgrass unique. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic, and if the wind blows, it plays tough. When course architect Pete Dye was still alive, he said many times over the last 40 years of his life that he kept in the back of his mind in designing the holes was the March winds. Each hole is challenging with water on everyone, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, and 18. Bunkering is also challenging, along with chipping, as most of the greens are raised, so a shot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year, it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982, and its last year was in March 2006. It was played in March when conditions were different due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed from 2007 to May, winds decreased and were much warmer. The change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. So when the tournament returned in March 2019, we had already seen drastically different conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast for this week, we know that weather will be a factor this year. Thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with winds of 13 mph. Thursday and Friday will be mostly cloudy, with winds in the 9 to 12 mph range. It’s not what tournament officials want; they would prefer dry and firm conditions on the course, which won’t happen this year.

So look for a lot of what happened at the Palmer. It was in-between conditions on a challenging course but a course that will not be firm.

Last year, the Players Championship field’s scoring average was 72.45, and it was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.

Here is a look at the scoring average at TPC Sawgrass for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 72.62, was the 12th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 72.42, it was the 16th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – The event wasn’t played due to Covid
*2019 – Average was 71.51, was T-23rd hardest of 49 courses that year

Still, how much did the change of date affect the course’s play? The winners have been consistent, as hitting greens has been important for most years.
Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top ten in greens hit, with four leading that stat.
Since the change to May, six of the 12 winners have been in the top ten, with only one, Sergio Garcia, leading in greens hit. In 2018, Webb Simpson was T-5th, but most of the time, on the May dates, it wasn’t that important.
With the change to March in 2019, Rory McIlroy was T-3rd, hitting 58 of 72 greens.
In 2021, Justin Thomas was T-17th, hitting 52 of 72 greens.
In 2022, Cameron Smith had a tough time, only hitting 45 of 72 greens and ranking T-52nd.
Last year, Scottie Scheffler was 1st hitting 54 of the 72 greens.

After playing at TPC Sawgrass 41 times, there have been a lot of changes and refinements to the course. Most players agree that the course is one of the best, most challenging, and fairest courses played on Tour. In talking about those who have won at the Players, it’s interesting to note that the new breed of winners, those at the top of the world rankings, struggle at the Players. Of the top ten, only Scottie Scheffler and #2 Rory McIlroy have won at TPC Sawgrass. Here is what has happened to all ten in the World Rankings:

To win, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.

In looking at our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as being very important. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for TPC Sawgrass over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 8th in driving distance on all holes; in driving accuracy, the course was 31st; and in greens hit, it ranked 9th last year. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th in driving distance, averaging 293.2 yards per drive on all holes. He was T-18th in Driving Accuracy hit, and 1st in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Scheffler was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 5th.

Here is a look at Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Players Championship by looking at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 4th in driving distance with an average drive of 277.6 yards (out of 50 courses), 21st in driving accuracy, and 22nd in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Cameron Smith was 21st in driving distance all holes, averaging 298.1 yards per drive, 70th in Driving accuracy, hitting 24 of 54 fairways, and T-52nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 45 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 68th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. (Terrible stats for the winner, but he made up with supreme putting stats)
2021 – The course ranked 10th in driving distance with an average drive of 283.8 yards (out of 50 courses), 24th in driving accuracy, and 27th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Justin Thomas was 3rd in driving distance all holes, averaging 295.9 yards per drive, T-32nd in Driving accuracy, hitting 44 of 54 fairways, and T-17th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 52 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked T-15th in driving distance with an average drive of 284.3 yards (out of 50 courses), 25th in driving accuracy, and 35th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Rory McIlroy was T-4th in driving distance all holes, averaging 295.8 yards per drive, T-49th in Driving accuracy, hitting 33 of 54 fairways, and T-3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 58 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Going further, in 2018, Webb Simpson was 16th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2017, Si Woo Kim was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green in his win.
In 2016, Jason Day was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2015, Rickie Fowler ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
In 2014, winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
While 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players, as proven by the fact that eight of the last ten winners, other than Smith and Simpson, finished no higher than 5th, with Scheffler in 2023, Thomas in 2021, McIlroy in 2019, and Woods in 2013 all ranking 1st.

The second important stat is Proximity to hole.
In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 9th in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting greens at TPC Sawgrass are. Still, for the previous 19 years, 13 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, eleven of them finished in the top five with nine in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, hit 54 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his five-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 10th as the field averaged 40 feet from the hole. Last year’s winner, Scheffler, ranked T-17th and averaged 36 feet, nine inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with Proximity to hole for the The Players Championship, winners the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 22nd in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and T-9th Proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and no inches.
Winner Cameron Smith was T-54th in Greens in Regulation and T-11th in Proximity to hole, averaging 24 feet and seven inches.
2021 – The course ranked 27th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and T-9th in Proximity to hole, averaging 39 feet and no inches.
Winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in Greens in Regulation and T-8th in Proximity to hole, averaging 35 feet and seven inches.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 24th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and T-6th in Proximity to hole, averaging 38 feet and 11 inches.
Winner Rory McIlroy was T-3rd in Greens in Regulation and 11th in Proximity to hole, averaging 35 feet and three inches. So we can see how tough it is on TPC Sawgrass.

Our third important stat is scrambling since the course is a shot-maker delight. You can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you had better get it up and down to play well. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 13th in scrambling out of 58 courses, getting it up and down 55.99% of the time. Winner Scheffler was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 18 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of The Players Championship, winners the last few years:
2022 – TPC Sawgrass finished 12th in scrambling, getting it up and down 53.92% of the time
Winner Cameron Smith was ranked T-22nd, getting it up and down in 17 of the 27 greens he missed.
2021 – TPC Sawgrass finished 6th in scrambling, getting it up and down 52.19% of the time
Winner Justin Thomas was ranked 14th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 20 greens he missed.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – TPC Sawgrass finished 8th in scrambling, getting it up and down 55.08% of the time
Winner Rory McIlroy was ranked T-40th, getting it up and down in 8 of the 14 greens he missed.
So, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Our final stat is vital, Strokes Gained Putting.
We picked this stat because most past Players’ winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, TPC Sawgrass ranked 45th in Putting average, 51st in One-Putt Percentage, 28th in three-putt Avoidance, and T-28th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 86.34% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the TPC Sawgrass and The Players Championship winners in the last few years:
2022 – TPC Sawgrass ranked 11th in Putting Average, 14th in One-Putt Percentage, 5th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 13th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.68% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Cameron Smith, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked first in Putting average, first in One-Putt Percentage, T-5th in three-putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 60 out of 65 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, it’s no big surprise that he was first in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining a whopping 11.521 shots.
2021 – TPC Sawgrass ranked 10th in Putting Average, 7th in One-Putt Percentage, 9th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.26% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Justin Thomas ranked T-14th in Putting average, T-7th in One-Putt Percentage, T-25th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 21st in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 66 out of 73 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots Gained.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – TPC Sawgrass ranked T-23rd in Putting Average, 18th in One-Putt Percentage, 14th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 7th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 86.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Rory McIlroy ranked 9th in Putting average, T-42nd in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-61st in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 65 out of 76 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 45th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player who will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 22nd, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Sawgrass ranked T-9th as the players averaged hitting it 26 feet, 0 inches away from the hole.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The greens average 5,500 square feet at TPC Sawgrass, so if you hit the green you won’t have a long putt. So, with shots ending up on the green, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall, putting stats ranked TPC Sawgrass the 26th hardest in putts made in 2023 with the field making an average of 74 feet, six inches of putts makes. In looking at one putting, it ranked 8th easiest to one putt as 43.95 one putts were made. In 3-Putt Avoidance the course was in the middle as it ranked 28th as the course had 222 three putts last year.

Here are the 139 of 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2024:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to see all the stats of players in the Players Championship.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and Puerto Rico, a total of 66 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least eight events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,800
• Rory McIlroy – $11,600
• Xander Schauffele – $11,300
• Justin Thomas – 10,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,300
• Viktor Hovland – $10,100
• Will Zalatoris – $9,900
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,800
• Wyndham Clark – $9,700
• Max Homa – $9,600
• Jordan Spieth – $9,500
• Collin Morikawa – $9,400
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,300
• Sam Burns – $9,200
• Shane Lowry – $9,100
• Cameron Young – $9,000

Remember what I told you before: there are no real favorites at the Players, and this is a tournament that is hard to gauge since there are no “horses for courses.”  Making things even harder, the course is soft from all the rain in the last few weeks, and with winds under 10 mph, it will be different to gauge a winner. The strategy should be to go low and not get caught up with many high-paying players. Also, you have to pick six players who will make the cut. In some cases, that could be hard.

One thing that we need to see first is Scottie Scheffler, which is $12,800, which is a lot of money. You pick him, and you only have $37,200 left over, which leaves us with only $7,440 for each of the other five players. So, if you take Scheffler, you cannot pick another player over $9,000. This week, 17 players are $9,000 and over, the most I have ever seen. So this week, the rules are a lot tougher for taking marquee guys. Let’s look at this differently. First, Scottie Scheffler is the best in DraftKings; he averages 103.3 points per event, which is awesome. Scheffler is the biggest favorite this week, so if you don’t take Scheffler and he wins or finishes 2nd, you will have a tough time winning anything since between 30 and 40% of the players will pick Scheffler. So frankly, you may have to play in more than one game and, say, pick him in two and not in the other two. So yes, he is a good pick, but he leaves you with few options. After that, I can’t see picking Rory McIlroy at $11,600, Xander Schauffele at $11,300, Justin Thomas at 10,600, or Viktor Hovland at $10,100. All five could win, but all five could be playing better now. So, with their high prices, I will not pick the other five, even if you don’t take Scheffler. Now, Will Zalatoris at $9,900, is my first high-price pick after Scheffler. His game is getting sharper, and he will do great this week. Hideki Matsuyama at $9,800 was a yes last week, but since he had pain in his legs. Matsuyama explained how he felt sore after having a relatively strong start to the Palmer event. While his back didn’t affect his scoring ability, it raised issues in other areas. “My leg is a little numb right now, so it’s not the perfect condition,” Matsuyama said. Sorry, that is not a good sign, and I will avoid Matsuyama. Wyndham Clark at $9,700 is a person to consider, but remember his price is very high. But he scores many points, so he is ok to pick. Max Homa at $9,600, is a person to watch. His game was not great on the West Coast swing, but he is playing better; he was T-16th at the Genesis and T-8th at the Palmer. He may be a person that is coming into form right now. Jordan Spieth at $9,500, has been very inconsistent all year; one week, he plays well and then struggles the next week. Last week was a perfect example of that. He opened up with a first-round 69 but then shot 74-77 before finishing with a 69 to finish T-30th. The same with his DraftKings earnings; they are way below past years, and I am saying no to him. The same goes for Collin Morikawa at $9,400; he is having a Jekyll and Hyde type of year, so no for him. Ludvig Aberg at $9,300, is someone to think about because he earns many DraftKings points, even with average finishes. I have to say no to him because of the price. The same is true with Sam Burns at $9,200; he has had a great year but imploded over the weekend at the Palmer to shoot 71-76 over the weekend, so it’s time to forget about him.   Shane Lowry at $9,100 is a good buy; he was T-4th at Cognizant and 3rd at the Palmer. He has shown signs that he could be on the cusp of winning and has played well at Sawgrass, so take him. Cameron Young at $9,000, needs to be more consistent. I feel like it’s too much to gamble $9,000 on him. He was T-4th at the Cognizant, finishing with a final round 66. But a week later was T-36th at the Palmer, shooting 76 in the final round.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament. Picking six players who play 72 holes is vital to playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help. It’s a look at the 2010 Players Championship to see who has made the most cuts. Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful. To get on this list, you have to make at least four Players starts:

• Justin Thomas made 8 cuts in 8 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Tom Hoge made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.
• Adam Scott made 11 cuts in 13 starts for an 84.6%. His DraftKings cost is 7,600.
• Si Woo Kim made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Tommy Fleetwood made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Keith Mitchell made 4 cuts in 5 starts for an 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,800.
• Adam Hadwin made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Brian Harman made 8 cuts in 11 starts for a 72.7%. His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Jason Day made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Justin Rose made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Keegan Bradley made 8 cuts in 12 starts for a 66.6%. His DraftKings cost is 7,900.
• Rory McIlroy made 7 cuts in 13 starts for a 53.8%. His DraftKings cost is 11,600.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Jason Day at $8,900 is a thought; he has quietly played great this year and will have his golden week, which could be this week. Sahith Theegala at $8,700 is another that you think will put it together. He fits the Players Championship type of longshot and could come through it this week. Russell Henley at $8,600 is a reasonable price for a player who has been consistent each week on the PGA Tour. Min Woo Lee at $8,000, is looking for revenge for last year; he has played well this year and comes to the Players in a reasonable frame of mind. This is a perfect course for Brian Harman, who, at $7,900, could be gold for you, especially if he gets his putter rolling. Tom Hoge at $7,800 is an excellent buy that everyone should take. He will make the cut and will be money in the bank for you. Adam Scot, at $7,600, is also a perfect choice; he always makes cuts and plays well at the Player. Yes, yes had a missed cut last week, which was a fluke. Adam Hadwin at $7,500, is also an excellent buy and has had a good 2024.

Are there any “Bargains” at the Players Championship?

Yes, there are, and the biggest right off the bat, I am very shocked to see Emiliano Grillo go for only $7,400. He has made a lot of cuts and DraftKings points; he won’t disappoint you this week. Rickie Fowler at $7,300, is an excellent price for a former champion, has played consistently this year and ready to play well this week. Look for Erik Van Rooyen at $7,300; he is in good form to make the cut and play well. Cam Davis at $7,000 is another bargain that will play well and help you. It’s hard to believe you can get Nick Taylor at only $6,900. He is still playing well after winning in Phoenix, and I can see his excellent play continuing this week. Recent winner Austin Eckroat is only $6,500 and well worth the money. He will make the cut, go 72 holes, and collect many DraftKings points. The same goes for Maverick McNealy at $6,300; yes, he will make the cut and play well.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at The Players Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for with his win in 2002. Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour. On top of that, since 1982, when the Players switched to the Stadium course, there have been 36 different winners, with 22 winning 53 major championships. Still, the cream always rises to the top if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it. But that will be different, so look for someone who may have struggled in the past to shine this week, someone like Keegan Bradley or Tom Hoge.

Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass: Scheffler, Thomas, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson, Day, McIlroy, and Woods. It’s not a bad list. But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions, so if that probably won’t happen, what do we expect?

It took 11 events for the Tour to have its first marquee winning for 2024. Should we look for a marquee winner? Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship. Talking about weird winners, 2017 champion Si Woo Kim also goes down in the annals of the Players as a long-shot winner. He became the youngest winner at 21 years, 10 months, and 16 days, and he only had 61 career PGA Tour starts, the 2nd least of anyone to win the Players (Henrik Stenson won on his 44th PGA Tour career start). In his winning year, the weather saw four days of winds up to 20 mph. Also, remember one of the worst weather weeks the Players had ever seen in 2005; it was terrible that the tournament finished on Monday with Fred Funk winning. This may open the door if the weather is terrible for a non-marquee winner.

Totally useless stat:

One of the most significant oddities of The Players Championship is that nobody has ever repeated as champion. If you look back at all the tournaments that started before 1998, the only other one like this is the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee, which has yet to be played. Six players have won this event multiple times (including all years), but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 1978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), and Davis Love III (1992, 2003). There have only been five multiple winners since it moved to TPC Sawgrass.

The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle, who won in a playoff in 1987. It is remarkable because of his 13 starts; he only made three cuts: his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994, and a T70th in 1997. Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries, but after winning the 2002 Players, he finished T17th the following year. Also, I must add the 2016 winner, Jason Day, to this list. In five tries before he won, he missed the cut three times.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

Going back to 2000, every winner but nine have been in the top 10 of greens hit category, and six of them have led (Scottie Scheffler-2023, Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton 2000). In 2012, Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens; in 2013, Tiger Woods was also T3rd in hitting 55 of 72 greens. In 2014, Martin Kaymer also finished 3rd, hitting 54 of 72 greens. In 2015, Rickie Fowler had the worst greens-hit performance of any champion going back to 1997; he hit only 45 of 72 greens and ranked T-51st. In 2016 Jason Day hit 52 of 72 greens and ranked T-15th; in 2017, Si Woo Kim hit 45 of 72 greens (the least of any champion since 1997) and ranked T-37th. In 2018, Webb Simpson hit 55 of 72 greens and was T-5th; in 2019, Rory McIlroy hit 58 of 72 greens and was T-3rd. In 2021, Justin Thomas hit 52 of 72 greens and was T-17th, while Cameron Smith hit 45 of 72 greens in 2023 and ranked the worst of all the champions at T-52nd.  Scottie Scheffler regained the #1 title in greens hit last year with 54 of 72 greens hit.

Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tricky and fast; historically, players have needed help making putts inside of ten feet. Looking at the rankings last year, TPC Sawgrass was the T-28th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 88.34%. The year before, it was the 15th hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 87.68%. In 2021, it was T-23rd hardest course in making putts inside ten feet, with an average of 86.75%. In 2018, it was ranked T-14th hardest course with an average of 87.02%. In the past, the number of putts hasn’t been the key, as between 2004 and 2010, nobody was in the top ten in the number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak, finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T5th in 2012 with 110 putts. In 2013, Tiger Woods was T35th, taking 114 putts; in 2014, Martin Kaymer also took 114 putts, ranking T38th. In 2015, Rickie Fowler was T-2nd, taking only 106 putts; in 2016, Jason Day was T-3rd, taking just 107 putts. In 2017, Si Woo Kim kept the streak going as his 108 putts ranked T-3rd, and in 2018, Webb Simpson also had 108 putts, which ranked T-4th. In 2019, Rory McIlroy had 116 putts, which ranked T-43rd. In 2021 Justin Thomas had 112 putts and ranked T-8th, while last year, Cameron Smith putted lights out with only 101 putts to lead that stat and have the lowest putts of any champion going back to 1997. The opposite happened last year when Scottie Scheffler ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.

Scrambling is essential; no matter how well a player does, he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win. Winner Scheffler was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 18 greens he missed. Last year, it was the 13th hardest on the PGA Tour, with the field averaging getting it up and down 55.99% of the time. The previous year, 2022, was the  12th hardest on the PGA Tour, with a field average of 53.92. Winner Cameron Smith was T-22nd in scrambling; Smith got it up and down 18 of the 27 greens he missed. In 2021, TPC Sawgrass was the 6th hardest, with a field average of 52.19. Justin Thomas was 14th last year, getting it up and down 13 of 20 greens missed. In 2019, TPC Sawgrass was the 8th hardest course to get it up and down, as the field averaged 55.08 in getting it up and down. McIlory finished T-40th in scrambling. In 2018, it was the 7th hardest course to get it up and down as the field averaged getting it up and down 53.013%, with Webb Simpson finishing 24th. But in 2017, SiWoo Kim and Jason Day in 2016 leading the scrambling stat, getting it up and down 81.48 for Kim and 85% for Day. There are a lot of tough chips on this course, and it will take a lot of chips and runs instead of pitching it in the air.

Lastly, the last three holes are the most talked about holes in golf. They all represent their challenges, problems, and drama, as water plays a prominent role. Between 2003 and 2022, 2,434 balls have gotten wet on the three holes; compare this to holes 1 through 15, which have had a total of 2,376 balls in the water. The 17th has the most with 932; the 18th has seen 872 go in the water, while the 16th has seen 626 balls in the water. So, in doing the math, these three holes have been played 8,299 times, with 2,434 in the water, which is a 29.3% average. So the chances of getting your ball wet on those holes in any given round are a shade under 3 in 10. In 2005 & ’07, 50 balls went into the water on the 17th hole, the most of any year since 2003.

Here is how the last 15 winners of the Players did on the final three holes in their final rounds: