BlogValspar Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Boy, have we had a lot of things happen in the last week? First, Scottie Scheffler is starting to prove that he is as prolific as Tiger Woods was. After graduating from Texas in 2018, he played at a few events before joining the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019. He had an excellent year in 20 starts, was in the top ten ten times, won twice, and led the money list with $565,338 in regular season earnings. Just like that, he was a member of the PGA Tour, joining the ranks in the 2020 season. His first year was a success; in 23 starts, he was in the top ten seven times and was fifth on the FedExCup. He was named PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and, after winning Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year in 2019, became the third player to be named Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year and PGA Tour Rookie of the Year in successive seasons, joining Stewart Cink (1996-’97) and Sungjae Im (2018-’19).

Since 2021, Scheffler has had some Tigeristic numbers. In 84 starts, he has won eight times, been runner-up seven times, and third eight times. That is 27 top threes in 84 starts, a 32% success rating. In those 84 events, he has 42 top tens, meaning that he finishes in the top ten in half of his events. Even more mind-boggling is the fact that he has won $50.5 million in earnings. In three and a half years, his earnings would be 11th in the career money list.

Sure, we know how good he is from tee to green; he hits the ball with the precision of Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods. We all know how great Scheffler is from tee to green, but what we have seen with his newfound putting is entirely unbeatable. He showed that on Sunday at the Players Championship, shooting a final round 64 to capture the title by a shot over Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark. It was the first time in Players’ history that anyone had won the title in back-to-back years.

After a terrible West Coast Swing, the PGA Tour has become relevant again, as the last two Sundays have produced the most exciting golf of the year.

As we have a week off from Scheffler, we will see if the momentum of the last couple of weeks can continue at Valspar. The good news is that Scottie will be back next week in Houston as everyone gets ready for the Masters in three weeks.

About this week, Valspar, many of the top players in the field played well at the Players. After finishing runner-up at the Players, Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele will play the Valspar. Maverick McNealy has put his injuries from last year in his rearview mirror as he finished T-9th at the Players and will be searching for his first PGA Tour victory. Joel Dahmen and Taylor Montgomery finished T-11th as they play this week, along with Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who finished T-13th.

Things you need to know about the Valspar Championship

• This will be the 23rd Valspar Championship, the first of which was played in 2000. The Valspar was the first full-field PGA Tour event held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open, which was played between 1930 and 1964.
• The tournament was formally called the Tampa Bay Classic and then changed in 2003 to the Chrysler Championship.  Chrysler dropped out in 2006, and PODS took over sponsorship and got an added boost with the advent of the FedEx Cup series and the transfer of the Players Championship to May.  So in 2007, just six months after the close of the 2006 event, the tournament moved into its new March date. But that didn’t last long, as with a change of management at PODS; they left after the 2008 event.   The power of the PGA Tour shined through as Transitions Lens, an optical lens manufacturing company whose headquarters are in the Tampa Bay area, came to the rescue with a four-year deal. Unfortunately, that deal ended after the 2012 event.  They got EverBank to write off some of the expenses in 2013, but for 2014, they got their sixth and present sponsor, Valspar, a company that is a paint and coatings manufacturer.  The 2001 event didn’t happen because of the 9/11 tragedy.
• When the tournament first started in 2000, it was the first time that a full PGA Tour event was held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open,  held between 1930 and 1964.  The course was the home of the mix-event JCPenney Classic, which ended in 1999.
• Now, the event doesn’t have much history, which is a problem when it comes to attracting a great field.  But the Innisbrook Copperhead course is a hidden gem on the PGA Tour and one that gets players’ attention.  Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses.

Course information:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Palm Harbor, Fl.
• 7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71
• The course has a 76.8 rating and a slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. It is part of a resort and is open to guests. The resort also sells local memberships.
• The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards, of which six holes have water in play for the professionals.
• Larry Packard designed the Copperhead course, which opened in 1974.  It was restored in 1999, two years after Westin Inc. purchased it. The goal of the restoration project was to regain the shot values and still challenge today’s longer-hitting PGA Tour players when Innisbrook hosts PGA Tour events. The plan involved refurbishing all 18 greens, restructuring many of the bunkers, removing some trees around the greens to improve air movement and sunlight, and clearing out undergrowth between fairways. The length of the golf course is the most visible change from 7,087 to 7,230 yards by the addition of tournament tees on five holes.  Since then, minor renovations have added another 110 yards to the course, bringing the final yardage to 7,340.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Copperhead Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, data from the 2023 Valspar Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from this year. We take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
Is anybody else as excited about the Players Championship as I was? It produced a last-day shootout between the British Open champion, US Open champion, Olympic champion, and world No. 1, who also happened to be the defending champion. Scottie Scheffler triumphed not only for the second year running but also for the second week running. After a slow West Coast swing, things are picking up, and we expect that to continue this week at Valspar.
From day one in 2000, the Copperhead course has the reputation of being a fantastic, fair course that many of the players enjoy. You can’t overpower the Copperhead course, and by no coincidence, players that hit it long usually take this week off. So, the course demands hitting fairways and avoiding the rough. Another key to the course is the greens. They are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour because of the grain on the greens. Last year, the field finished 51st in overall putting average, with only seven courses having more challenging greens to putt, meaning players can make putts on this course. Last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, was 9th in Strokes Gained putting, while 2022 winner Sam Burns was 8th in Strokes Gained putting, so good putting is critical. Some other great putters that have won the Valspar include Jordan Spieth, Luke Donald, Jim Furyk, and 2022 winner Sam Burns.
The Copperhead course field’s scoring average was 71.94, and it was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.

Here is a look at the scoring average at the Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 70.23, was 29th hardest of the 50 courses that year. Despite high winds of up to 22mph on Friday and winds of 6 to 12 the other days, the course played easier, making 2022 the easiest it has played in its history. Historically, the course seems to be getting easier.
*2021 – Average was 70.96; it was the 20th hardest of the 51 courses that year. The weather was good; yes, the course saw winds of up to 15 mph every day except for Saturday, which was a great day, and the winds were only 8 mph. Now, the Cooperhead course is very demanding; the 70.96 average was the first time the course played under par since 2012, when perfect weather brought the scoring average below par at 70.73.
*2020 – The event wasn’t played due to COVID-19.
*2019 – Average was 71.98, was 6th hardest of 49 courses that year.
In 2018, the scoring average was 71.97; again, it was the 6th hardest course to score in 2018. What makes the course so hard is the winds that would blow up to 30 mph, making the course hard. In the wind, the course is a bear; look at 2015, when the average was 72.88 (3rd hardest); in 2014, the average was 72.59 (10th hardest); and in 2013, it played at 71.91, making it the 12th hardest course on tour. So historically, the Copperhead is a challenging course to start with, add some wind, and it’s a brute. But the course can become more manageable after four days of calm conditions. As in 2017, during perfect conditions with little winds, the course played to a 71.51 scoring average, making it the 17th hardest course. Now, in all those periods when the course played over par, the event was played in mid-March, which is the windiest time for that area, but in 2021, it was an exception to the rule since the course was played in April and spilled over to the first of May. So we can see the rest of the courses in Florida. Wind plays an essential part in bringing the scores high. This is the fourth straight event played in Florida, and we have yet to see a windy day, which is remarkable to think of no wind in Florida in March. But that streak will continue this week. Thursday, winds will be in the 7 mph range; after that, the last three days will see wins in the 10 to 14 mph range, so look for low scores. Temperatures will be seasonably low, 79 on Thursday, but going down to the low 70s, with showers on Thursday but mostly Sunday skies for the final three days.

Looking at Cooperhead’s stats over the last few years, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy, and putting from 4 to 8 feet are important. To win on this Course, you have to be a great ball striker and also be able to putt.
In our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. The stat considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at the stats for the Cooperhead course over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and Driving Accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 20th in driving distance on all holes; in Driving Accuracy, the course was 15th; and in Greens hit, it ranked 3rd last year. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Taylor Moore ranked 11th in driving distance, averaging 2287.2 yards per drive on all holes. He was T-32nd in Driving Accuracy hit and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Moore was 2nd, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 2nd.

Here is a look at Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green for the Valspar Championship by looking at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the winners in the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 5th in driving distance with an average drive of 278.3 yards (out of 50 courses), 17th in driving Accuracy, and 14th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Sam Burns was 15th in driving distance all holes, averaging 284.6 yards per drive, T-38th in Driving accuracy, hitting 30 of 54 fairways, and T-13th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2021 – The course ranked 3rd in driving distance with an average drive of 2278.4 yards (out of 50 courses), 20th in driving accuracy, and 6th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Sam Burns (yes, won two straight) was T-17th in driving distance all holes, averaging 284.9 yards per drive, T-14th in Driving accuracy, hitting 34 of 54 fairways, and T-35th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 5th in driving distance with an average drive of 276.2 yards (out of 50 courses), 11th in driving accuracy, and 1st in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Paul Casey, the defending champion, was 16th in driving distance all holes, averaging 281.5 yards per drive, 9th in Driving accuracy, hitting 35 of 54 fairways, and T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 46 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

The next important stat is Proximity to hole.
In our ranking, hitting greens is one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 3rd in greens in regulation, again reflecting how hard-hitting the Cooperhead course’s greens are. Still, for the previous 22 years, 16 of the winners have been in the top 15 in greens hit; taking it a step further, those same champions, nine of them finished in the top five, with five in the top 3, so you can see the importance of hitting greens in winning this championship.
Last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, hit 54 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in his five-shot victory. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 10th as the field averaged 40 feet from the hole. Last year’s winner, Moore, ranked 23rd and averaged 35 feet, eight inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with Proximity to hole for the Valspar Championship, winners the last few years:
2022 – The course ranked 14th in Greens in Regulation (out of 50 courses) and 30th in Proximity to hole, averaging 34 feet and 8 inches.
Winner Sam Burns was T-13th in Greens in Regulation and T-34th in Proximity to hole, averaging 33 feet and ten inches.
2021 – The course ranked 6th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 19th in Proximity to hole, averaging 36 feet and 7 inches.
Winner Sam Burns was 14th in Greens in Regulation and 10th in Proximity to hole, averaging 32 feet and seven inches.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The course ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 15th in Proximity to hole, averaging 37 feet and three inches.
Winner Paul Casey was T-5th in Greens in Regulation and 65th in Proximity to hole, averaging 41 feet and one inch.
So we can see how tough it is on the Cooperhead Course.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting because putting well at Innisbrook is important. The greens are average size (5,822 sq. ft.) and have little undulation, so players can do well on them. We also picked this stat because most past Valspar winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, the Cooperhead course ranked 23rd in Putting average, 50th in One-Putt Percentage, 45th in three-putt Avoidance, and 19th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.80% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, ranked 34th in Putting Average, T-70th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 60th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 61 out of 70 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 48th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .107 shots.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the Cooperhead course and Valspar Championship winners in the last few years:
2022 – The Cooperhead course ranked 32nd in Putting Average, 44th in One-Putt Percentage, T-43rd in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 27th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.56% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Sam Burns, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked first in Putting average, T-5th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in three-putt Avoidance, and T-51st in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 60 out of 68 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, it’s no surprise that he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 5.163 shots.
2021-The Cooperhead course ranked 23rd in Putting Average, 46th in One-Putt Percentage, T-43rd in 3-putt Avoidance, and 15th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.55% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Sam Burns ranked 2nd in Putting average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 1st in Putting Inside ten feet, making 59 out of 61 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 9.096 shots.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – The Cooperhead course ranked 14th in Putting Average, 46th in One-Putt Percentage, T-24th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 14th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.46% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Paul Casey ranked 5th in Putting average, T-32nd in One-Putt Percentage, T-20th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-50th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 67 out of 77 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 43rd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.392 shots. In the last eleven years, Burns, Casey, Luke Donald, and Jordan Spieth were the only good putters to win.

Our last important category is Par Breakers
because making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, the Cooperhead course had 1,264 birdies, 5th in birdie average, and had 23 eagles made, which ranked T-14th. Winner Moore was T-7th in the field with 19 birdies and T-8th with one eagle. He was T-6th in Par Breakers.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Valspar Championship winners the last few years:
2022 – 1,502 birdies were made (34th hardest) and 36 eagles (T-30th) as 19.78% of the holes played under par, making it the 18th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Sam Burns made 20 birdies (T-2nd) but had 2 eagles (T-1st). As 30.56% of the holes were played under par, he ranked T-1st in Par Breakers.
2021 – 1,408 birdies were made (29th hardest) and 30 eagles (T-24th) as 217.79% of the holes played under par, making it the 11th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Sam Burns made 21 birdies (2nd) and two eagles (T-2nd), and 31.94% of the holes were played under par, as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – No event due to Covid.
2019 – 1,218 birdies were made (20th hardest) and 15 eagles (T-6th) as 16.04% of the holes played under par, making it the 2nd hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Paul Casey made 18 birdies (T-3rd) and one eagle, and 26.39% of the holes were played under par, ranking him T-1st in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

More Proof of the toughness of the course: in the history of this event, only 75 times has a player shot four under-par rounds, with 3 doing it last year, 13 doing it in 2022, and 7 doing it in 2021. Before that, the previous time was Tiger Woods in 2018. Taking it a step further, only 22 times has a player shot four rounds in the 60s; nobody did it last year, while seven players did it in 2022, and in 2021, three. Before that, the last time a player shot four rounds in the 60s was in 2012. We must understand that mother nature is one of the factors affecting this statistic. The winds of March show up each year this event is played, which is why the course has played over par every year between 2012 and 2019.

Look back at the last two Valspar Championships and why they won:

2023: Playing in his sophomore season, Taylor Moore played most of the final day under the radar screen, but with birdies at 9, 12, 15, and 16, Moore was able to jump into a share of the lead with Adam Schenk. Moore then saved par on the final two holes, including a five-footer at the last. He finished the week converting all 64 of his putts inside seven feet. Schenk gave the tournament to Moore with a poor drive on the final hole, which led to a bogey and a win for Moore, who didn’t take the lead until the 72nd hole. For Moore, the victory came thanks to good putting and T-2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens. Going into the week, Moore had career earnings of $3,048,976 in 45 events and added $1.458 million with the Valspar win.

2022: Sam Burns won the Valspar for a second straight year by beating Davis Riley on the second hole of a playoff when he made a 32-foot putt for birdie. Burns trailed Riley by three shots going into the final round and shot 69 on Sunday, his eighth consecutive round in the 60s on the Cooperhead course. Keys to Burns’s victory first came from Riley, who made a triple bogey 8 on the fifth hole. As for Burns, he drove the ball well, finishing 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. He also finished 8th in Strokes Gained putting and was ten under on the par 5s.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL ON THE COOPERHEAD COURSE:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: This is a good indication of players that do the best at hitting it far, straight, and then hitting lots of greens to pick up the most strokes by perfecting those combined stats.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length that a player hits it to the hole from the fairway

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you must make these putts to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making many birdies and eagles is impossible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course.

125 of the 155 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link for all the player stats for the Valspar

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database covering 67 events, beginning at the start of the 2023 season and ending with the 2024 Players Championship. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Xander Schauffele – $11,200
• Sam Burns – $10,900
• Justin Thomas – $10,400
• Jordan Spieth – $10,200
• Brian Harman – $9,800
• Cameron Young – $9,600
• SungJae Im – $9,400
• Tony Finau – $9,300
• Nick Taylor – $9,100
• Min Woo Lee – $9,000

This is a tough tournament to gauge for many different reasons. First, it’s different from those events that players historically attend. A perfect example is Jordan Spieth, who won the tournament in 2015 but didn’t play in it the last couple of years. Then you have the weather. Historically, winds play havoc with scoring. This week, look for the lack of winds to make scoring low.

However, the most critical problem with this event is that historical data may not help because the elements change yearly, and players only participate a few times a year. It’s essential to see which players produce a lot of offense every time they play. As you can see in the chart above, our top players do give a lot of offense, so it will be an exciting week.

So, let’s look at our top players. First off is Xander Schauffele who is $11,200. He only played in this event once and was T-12th in 2022. Xander has had an excellent year and does average winning 88 points per event, so the combination of good play plus making a lot of DraftKings points gives a picture of taking Schauffele.  But looking at Schauffele over the last year, I see that he has had a lot of good and bad events. In 2024, he was T-9th at the Farmers, then finished T-54th at Pebble. The week after was T-4th at Genesis, but his next start was T-25th at the Palmer, followed by his runner-up at the Players. Sorry, I think last week took a lot out of him, and I can see him finishing T-25th this week, so no, not taking him. Sam Burns at $10,900 is another story; he plays great in this course and has had a good 2024. He hasn’t been great in his last two starts, but I think the Cooperhead course will get him going this week. I can’t recommend Justin Thomas at $10,400, even though he says he likes the course and feels it’s one he can score on. He was T-10th last year, T-3rd the year before, and T-13th in 2021. But he missed the cut at the Genesis and Players; his putting is the reason for concern, so I say no to him. The same with Jordan Spieth at $10,200; he isn’t playing well right now, and we have to take a pass on him. I like Brian Harman at $9,800. He played great at the Players, and his excellent putting should do him well. I am concerned that his last six Valspar starts have missed the cut five times, but he was T-5th in 2022, so I say he is a great pick. Cameron Young at $9,600 is a hard choice; he has yet to play great in the last two weeks and missed the cut in his only Valspar start. But he can rebound this week. SungJae Im at $9,400 is another hard choice. He hasn’t played in this event since his T-29th finish in 2021 and has struggled with his game since the Sentry, so I am passing on him. I am also passing on Tony Finau at $9,300, even though he makes a lot of DraftKing points. But his game has been off since San Diego and, despite finishing 5th at the Valspar in 2017, has missed the cut in his other three starts. Nick Taylor at $9,100, is a great pick, has played well lately, and was T-10th last year in this event. Min Woo Lee at $9,000, is a no for me; he is playing in his first Valspar, and since his runner-up at the Cognizant, he was T-44th at the Palmer and T-54th at the Players.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $8,800, is a good choice, he has played well of late, including four solid rounds at the Players. This is an excellent course for Keegan Bradley at $8,600. He was 2nd at Valspar in 2021, and the course is perfect for his game. Doug Ghim at $8,400, is a great pick. He has been in the top 16 in his last five starts, and I can see him going low this week. Adam Hadwin at $8,200, has a good track record in this event, including a win. Yes missed the cut at the Players, but this is a perfect course for Hadwin. Same with Maverick McNealy at $8,100; his game has been getting better of late, and he could surprise us. Taylor Montgomery at $7,500, is also a good choice due to his putting, has never played in the Valspar.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Sam Ryder at $7,300, is worth it based on how well he has played of late, he was T-16th at the Players. Joel Dahmen at $6,800 is reasonable for a guy who will make the cut this week. Thomas Detry is only $6,800; I know he has struggled in his last three starts and is playing for the first time at the Valspar, but I feel he will have a great week. Andrew Novak as $6,700, has played well of late and in two starts at the Valspar was T-27th last year. Matt Nesmith at $6,500, is a great pick, he was T-3rd at the Valspar in 2022 and T-21st the year before. He has played well this year and was T-26th last week at the Players. Davis Riley at $6,400 is also reasonable; they played well at Valspar and were T-19th last year and 2nd in 2022.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valspar Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In looking at the 22 champions of this event, 13 of them have this in common.  They were in the top 13 in greens hit.  As a matter of fact, seven of them were in the top five, including 2019 champion Paul Casey, who was T-5th in Greens hit in 2019.  In 2022, winner Sam Burns was t-13th, while last year’s champion Taylor Moore was T-2nd. So it is crucial to hit lots of greens, and those that do usually have an advantage.