Valero Texas Open Key Fantasy Stats

Valero Texas Open

April 4th – 7th, 2024

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

San Antonio, TX

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,438

Purse: $9.2 million

with $1,656,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Corey Conners

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from last year’s Valero Texas Open (won by Corey Conners), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

The scoring average of the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course field last year was 72.09, and it was the 16th hardest course on the PGA Tour of the 58 courses charted in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average at TPC San Antonio Oaks Course for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 71.76, was the T-17th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 72.48; it was the 14th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – The event was not played in 2020 due to COVID-19
*2019 – Average was 71.24, was 28th hardest of 49 courses that year. In the decade the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. Previously, the course had played hard. In the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is the winds; the area is notorious for having winds. Last year, it was windy for all four days. On Thursday, they had gusts up to 25 mph; on Friday, they had gusts up to 23 mph, while over the weekend, the winds were between 8 and 18 mph.
The same as in 2022, it was windy all four days. On Friday, gusts up to 27 mph were recorded.
Back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and a lack of winds.
In 2018, the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot around tougher than in 2019, when it ranked 12th.
In 2017, the course scored 72.85 on average, the 10th hardest.
In 2016, the course played to a 72.21 average and was the 17th hardest course.
In 2015, with challenging conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on Tour. So TPC San Antonio can be a brute between being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So, weather is always important for this week, and looking at the long-range forecast, it will be good early on Thursday, with temperatures in the mid- to low 80s and winds in the 9 mph range. Friday and Saturday will be windy in the 16 mph range, and Sunday will see scattered Thunderstorms and winds at 10 mph.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the most challenging courses the Tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is essential. Last year, it ranked 29th out of 41 courses in driving distance (all 14 drives measured), with an average drive of 295.8 yards. In 2022, it ranked 26th out of 36 courses in driving distance (all 14 drives measured). So, with an average drive of 296.9 years, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, had an average drive of 304.1 yards, and he ranked 13th.
The 2022 winner, J.J. Spaun, will be one of the shortest hitters to win in this event. His average drive was 291.0 yards and ranked 56th (72 made the cut).
In 2021, Jordan Spieth was T-15th in this stat; his average drive was 297.7 yards.
In looking at the past winners of this event since it’s been played at the Canyons course in 2010, only three of the ten winners have been in the top ten in driving distance. Going further in looking at the list of winners, we see that they have many short hitters winning this event. Between 2017 and 2019, the three champions, Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, ranked 45th in all drives in 2023, so we can’t say that a long-hitter ruled the roast at this venue last year. The same is true in 2022; champion J.J. Spaun ranked 136th in all drives in 2022.
So you may think accuracy is essential, but on the other end of the spectrum, that’s not the case, either. Of the last nine winners going back to 2014, only three champions were in the top 25 in driving accuracy:
Last year’s winner was Corey Conners, who was 3rd.
2022 winner J.J. Spaun, who was T-9th.
2019 winner Corey Conners, who was T-7th in his victory.
Still, you can see those results in fairway accuracy. The course was 6th last year with a 49.14 average, 8th in 2022 with a 53.44 average, and 11th in 2021 with a 55.03 average. It was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average and 19th on Tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so placing drives in the fairway is crucial.

One of the keys to playing well at TPC San Antonio is hitting greens. Last year and in 2022, the course ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation, while in 2021, the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in Regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. 2017 it was 3rd; in 2016, it was the 15th hardest. In 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top 17 in greens in Regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat.
Things have changed, and we may see this trend broken. In 2022, J.J. Spaun ranked T-16th in greens hit with 48 of 72. The same happened in 2021. Jordan Spieth ruined this stat, ranking T-57th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. But things went back to normal last year as Corey Conners won and led the Greens in Regulation stat again, hitting 56 of 72 greens.

So, we get down to our four key categories. Our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Last year, the field hit an average of 61.05% of the greens and ranked 12th. So this is important in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, our top stats to look for. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 greens as he finished 1st for the week in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, gaining 3.663 storks per round.
Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and how it corresponds to the winners in the last few years in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green:
*2022 – TPC San Antonio ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner J.J. Spaun was T-16th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens, and was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 2.190 shots per round.
*2021 – TPC San Antonio ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Jordan Spieth was T-57th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens, but was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.227 shots per round.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – TPC San Antonio ranked 13th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Corey Conners was T1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 59 of 72 greens, and was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.593 shots per round.

Scrambling is our 2nd key stat mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, like at TPC San Antonio; the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see that players can get it up and down on greens that are missed. Last year, it ranked 30th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 59.30% of the time. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, winner Corey Conners was ranked 20th, getting it up and down in 11 of the 16 greens he missed.
Here is a look at the scrambling of the Valero Texas Open winners over the last few years:
*2022 – TPC San Antonio finished 31st in scrambling, getting it up and down 61.11% of the time
Winner J.J. Spaun was ranked 57th. He got it up and down in 14 of the 24 greens he missed.
*2021 – TPC San Antonio finished 23rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 58.79% of the time
Winner Jordan Spieth was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 24 of the 30 greens he missed.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2020 – TPC San Antonio finished 43rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 63.89% of the time
Winner Corey Conners was ranked 70th, getting it up and down in 4 of the 13 greens he missed.
Most of the time, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Another essential skill for success is putting. So, for our third category, we picked making Putting inside 10 feet.
Last year, TPC San Antonio’s greens were some of the most challenging greens to make putts on Tour in making putts inside ten feet in, as only 87.30% of those putts were made, making it the 9th hardest on Tour. In comparison, the Seaside course at Sea Island Resort in the RSM Classic saw the most putts inside of ten feet, with 89.59%. For the winner, Corey Conners ranked 40th in putting inside ten feet, making 66 of 75 tries inside ten feet (88.00%).
Here is a look at the Putting Inside 10 Feet of the Valero Texas Open winners for the last few years:
*2022 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 88.78% of the putts were made, the 30th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner J.J. Spaun made 63 of 67 putts inside ten feet (94.03%) and ranked T-7th.
*2021 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 87.11% of the putts were made, which was the 11th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Jordan Spieth hit 66 of 71 greens (92.96%) and ranked T-5th.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – 87.62% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, as it was the 19th hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Corey Conners made 65 of 75 putts inside ten feet (86.67%) and ranked T-50th.
So, putting is essential in playing well at TPC San Antonio.

Our last category is one in which players have to find a way of making birdies and eagles to score well, Par Breakers, since making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, TPC San Antonio had 1,473 birdies, 34th in total birdies, and had 27 eagles made, which ranked T-23rd. Corey Conners was T-1st in the field, and there were no eagles. He was 2nd in Par Breakers.
Remember this: of the ten TPC courses, all except for TPC Scottsdale and TPC Southwind had fewer birdies (Southwind had 1,098 birdies, and TPC Scottsdale had 1,333).

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Valero Texas Open winners the last few years:
*2022 – 1,513 birdies were made (36th hardest) and 26 eagles (T-19th) as 20.07% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner J.J. Spaun made 23 birdies (the Best) and one eagle, which made 33.33% of the holes he played under par. He ranked first in Par Breakers.
*2021 – 1,457 birdies were made (32nd hardest) and 22 eagles (T-10th) as 18.59% of the holes played under par, making it the 15th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Jordan Spieth made 24 birdies (Best) and no eagles, as 33.33% of the holes were played under par, and he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – 1,598 birdies were made (37th hardest) and 70 eagles (T-33rd) as 20.97% of the holes played under par, making it the 23rd hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Corey Conners made 29 birdies (Best) and one eagle as 41.67% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at TPC San Antonio? Corey Conners has won twice and was T-35th in 2022, T-14th in 2021 and T-26th in 2018. Charley Hoffman has been the most consistent; in 17 Valero starts has made 16 cuts and was in the top ten seven times, including a win in 2016, runner-up in 2011, 2019, and 2021, and a T-3rd in 2013. Last year, he was T-22nd. Hoffman isn’t a very good Florida player, missing three straight cuts at Mexico, Players, and Valspar. Kevin Streelman also played well in this event; he made nine cuts in nine starts, and his best finish was 6th in 2019. Last year was T-46th. We also must remember Matt Kuchar, who, in 18 starts, has made 13 cuts, including his previous 11 in a row. He was T-3rd last year and T-2nd in 2022. Kuchar has had one of the worst starts of his career; he has missed six cuts in eight starts, but coming to TPC San Antonio could be good for him.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a great barometer of how a player’s game is from tee to green. It takes a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: This is very easy. Count every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 with 134 of the 156 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.