BlogValero Texas Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Many will wonder if this is nothing more than a good time to take a week off. Despite having a great sponsor, this event hasn’t been a marquee stop on the PGA Tour until this week. Last year, only 24 players in the top 100 of the world rankings played in the Valero Texas Open. This year, 48 of the top 100 are in the field. Last year, only 8 players were in the top 50, with the highest rank player being #17 Tyrrell Hatton. There are 20 top 50 layers this year and four in the top 10. So why the drastic change, you ask? No Match Play event the week before the Valero; with it gone, it leaves a void for players getting their last-minute Masters preparation done. So this makes Valero very happy.

In the past, many people have passed up the Valero Texas Open due to the winds, which blow in the 20 mph range. The last thing in the world players want to do is screw up their swings a week before the Masters. But by the number of players on the field, the worry is not as great. One thing is that the TPC San Antonio course is a tough test and will be a perfect venue for players to prepare for the Masters.

Talking about the Masters

The field is pretty much set with 88. The only exception or way for players to get into the Masters field is winning this week. One of the players looking at that is Akshay Bhatia, who won at the Barracuda Championship last July, but since that is a second-tier event the same week as the British Open, there is no invite. Senior players Padraig Harrington and Stewart Cink are playing in Texas and would love to play in the Masters, but again, they have to win this week. Billy Horschel has played in nine Masters, every one since 2018. But he must win in Texas to continue the streak to seven in a row. Kevin Kisner has an even bigger streak going. He has played in 8 straight Masters going back to 2016, but that streak is in Jeopardy if he doesn’t win this week in Texas as the streak will end. Matt Kuchar has played in 15 Masters but hasn’t made it to Augusta since 2021, and if he doesn’t win in Texas, he will make it missing the Masters for three years in a row. Webb Simpson played in 11 straight Masters between 2012 and ’22 but didn’t make it last year and won’t be in Augusta this year unless he wins. Also missing the Masters will be 2018 British Open champion Francesco Molinari. He has played in 12 of them and in the last seven going back to 2017, but with his Open Championship exemption expired, he didn’t get an invite and won’t play in Texas, so his streak will end.

56 of those who played in last year’s Masters will return this year (that includes Fred Couples, who may WD). But 31 others won’t be back, including LIV winners Talor Gooch and Harold Varner III and Louis Oosthuizen, who played in 15 straight Masters between 2009 and last year.

Winning a major the week after winning on the PGA Tour

We talk about this all the time when the majors come around. Is it suitable for a player to participate the week before? That player is usually trying to prepare to play in a major. The last thing most of these players think about is winning; of course, they want to get their games ready and don’t want to spend the energy it takes to win a week too early. 2022 was a perfect example; Rory McIlroy played in the Valero Texas Open, missing the cut, and then finished 2ndd at the Masters the following week. Last year, McIlroy didn’t play in the Valero and missed the cut at the Masters, so it’s a mystery to me what to do.

In the history of the majors going back to 1950, only six times has a player won the week before winning a major. Here is the list:

• Rory McIlroy – won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2014 PGA Championship
• Tiger Woods – Won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, followed by the 2007 PGA Championship
• Phil Mickelson – Won the BellSouth Classic, followed by the 2006 Masters Tournament
• Sandy Lyle – Won Greater Greensboro Open, followed by the 1988 Masters Tournament
• Lee Trevino – Won the Canadian Open, followed by the 1971 British Open
• Art Wall – Won the Azalea Open, followed by the 1959 Masters Tournament

Who is the hottest player in the game, Scottie Scheffler or Joaquin Niemann

Since the start of December, both have won three times. But the big difference is Scheffler won the Hero World Challenge, Arnold Palmer and the Players, while Niemann won the Australian Open, and twice on LIV Golf at Mayakoba and Jeddah. All three fields needed to be stronger, with 11 top 100 players in Australia and only a handful at the LIV Golf. As for Scheffler, yes, Hero only had a field of 20, but 19 were in the top 39 in the rankings. So, I have to say Scheffler is the hottest player in the world right now, and frankly, it doesn’t matter how well someone plays on LIV golf; it’s not of the same rank as PGA Tour events right now.

Since the start of December, only Scheffler and Niemann can claim winning more than once, so it’s cut and dry and really not much of a debate. It’s a shame, considering last year at this time, we had three players hot: Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy. The latter two haven’t played well of late.

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is a historic tournament; it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf worldwide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour, and the longest held in the same city. This is the 102nd anniversary of the first one played in 1922 at Brackenridge Park. Robert MacDonald won that one, and in 1923, Walter Hagen won. The list of winners is good. Hagen, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, and Sam Snead won. Arnold Palmer won three in a row between 1960 and 1962. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the Brackenridge Park Golf Course has predominantly hosted the event, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, and Oak Hills Country Club between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera. 13 years ago, they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, part of a two-course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low on, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. In the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, Al Brosch became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for the lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open. But at TPC San Antonio, only a few records are broken as the course is very tough.

Course information:

• TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• San Antonio, TX.
• 7,438 yards     Par 36-36–72

AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains: Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens, and Bandera on the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those who stay on the path and its members.

The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. It has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.

The field’s scoring average at TPC San Antonio last year was 71.76, the 17th hardest course on tour. TPC San Antonio has been played on since 2019

There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move was financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which had been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood. The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,438 yards and a par 72. It was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted. The course opened in 2009 and is one of the ten TPC courses that will be used on the PGA Tour this season.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in TPC San Antonio.

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from last year’s Valero Texas Open (won by Corey Conners), and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

The scoring average of the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course field last year was 72.09, and it was the 16th hardest course on the PGA Tour of the 58 courses charted in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average at TPC San Antonio Oaks Course for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 71.76, was the T-17th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 72.48; it was the 14th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – The event was not played in 2020 due to COVID-19
*2019 – Average was 71.24, was 28th hardest of 49 courses that year. In the decade the Tour has been playing at TPC San Antonio, it’s the first time the field broke par. Previously, the course had played hard. In the history of the PGA Tour, it’s one of the highest-scoring averages for a non-major. The biggest reason is the winds; the area is notorious for having winds. Last year, it was windy for all four days. On Thursday, they had gusts up to 25 mph; on Friday, they had gusts up to 23 mph, while over the weekend, the winds were between 8 and 18 mph.
The same as in 2022, it was windy all four days. On Friday, gusts up to 27 mph were recorded.
Back in 2019, there was rain, the course was soft, and a lack of winds.
In 2018, the course played to a 72.37 average, almost a shot around tougher than in 2019, when it ranked 12th.
In 2017, the course scored 72.85 on average, the 10th hardest.
In 2016, the course played to a 72.21 average and was the 17th hardest course.
In 2015, with challenging conditions, the course played to a 74.52 average, the 2nd hardest course on Tour. So TPC San Antonio can be a brute between being long, with heavy rough in the fairways, and demanding shots to the green.
So, weather is always important for this week, and looking at the long-range forecast, it will be good early on Thursday, with temperatures in the mid- to low 80s and winds in the 9 mph range. Friday and Saturday will be windy in the 16 mph range, and Sunday will see scattered Thunderstorms and winds at 10 mph.

TPC San Antonio has been and could be one of the most challenging courses the Tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is essential. Last year, it ranked 29th out of 41 courses in driving distance (all 14 drives measured), with an average drive of 295.8 yards. In 2022, it ranked 26th out of 36 courses in driving distance (all 14 drives measured). So, with an average drive of 296.9 years, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, had an average drive of 304.1 yards, and he ranked 13th.
The 2022 winner, J.J. Spaun, will be one of the shortest hitters to win in this event. His average drive was 291.0 yards and ranked 56th (72 made the cut).
In 2021, Jordan Spieth was T-15th in this stat; his average drive was 297.7 yards.
In looking at the past winners of this event since it’s been played at the Canyons course in 2010, only three of the ten winners have been in the top ten in driving distance. Going further in looking at the list of winners, we see that they have many short hitters winning this event. Between 2017 and 2019, the three champions, Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, and Kevin Chappell, are in the bottom tier of driving. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, ranked 45th in all drives in 2023, so we can’t say that a long-hitter ruled the roast at this venue last year. The same is true in 2022; champion J.J. Spaun ranked 136th in all drives in 2022.
So you may think accuracy is essential, but on the other end of the spectrum, that’s not the case, either. Of the last nine winners going back to 2014, only three champions were in the top 25 in driving accuracy:
Last year’s winner was Corey Conners, who was 3rd.
2022 winner J.J. Spaun, who was T-9th.
2019 winner Corey Conners, who was T-7th in his victory.
Still, you can see those results in fairway accuracy. The course was 6th last year with a 49.14 average, 8th in 2022 with a 53.44 average, and 11th in 2021 with a 55.03 average. It was 5th in 2019 with a 53.98 average and 19th on Tour in 2018 with a 58.02 average, so placing drives in the fairway is crucial.

One of the keys to playing well at TPC San Antonio is hitting greens. Last year and in 2022, the course ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation, while in 2021, the course was 9th in Greens in Regulation. In 2019, the course was 13th in greens in Regulation and 9th in greens hit in 2018, which is very high, probably because of all the wind. Yes, the greens have been very tough to hit. 2017 it was 3rd; in 2016, it was the 15th hardest. In 2015, it was the 2nd hardest greens to hit on Tour, and then between 2012 and 2019, all the winners were in the top 17 in greens in Regulation, with 2019 winner Corey Conners, 2018 winner Andrew Landry, 2015 winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis leading that stat.
Things have changed, and we may see this trend broken. In 2022, J.J. Spaun ranked T-16th in greens hit with 48 of 72. The same happened in 2021. Jordan Spieth ruined this stat, ranking T-57th in Greens in Regulation, which was the worst performance of a winner at TPC San Antonio. But things went back to normal last year as Corey Conners won and led the Greens in Regulation stat again, hitting 56 of 72 greens.

So, we get down to our four key categories. Our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Last year, the field hit an average of 61.05% of the greens and ranked 12th. So this is important in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, our top stats to look for. Last year’s winner, Corey Conners, ranked 1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 56 of 72 greens as he finished 1st for the week in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, gaining 3.663 storks per round.
Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and how it corresponds to the winners in the last few years in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green:
*2022 – TPC San Antonio ranked 12th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner J.J. Spaun was T-16th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 48 of 72 greens, and was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 2.190 shots per round.
*2021 – TPC San Antonio ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Jordan Spieth was T-57th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 42 of 72 greens, but was 3rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.227 shots per round.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – TPC San Antonio ranked 13th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Corey Conners was T1st in Greens in Regulation, hitting 59 of 72 greens, and was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, picking up 3.593 shots per round.

Scrambling is our 2nd key stat mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed, like at TPC San Antonio; the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see that players can get it up and down on greens that are missed. Last year, it ranked 30th hardest, with players getting it up and down on greens, missing 59.30% of the time. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, winner Corey Conners was ranked 20th, getting it up and down in 11 of the 16 greens he missed.
Here is a look at the scrambling of the Valero Texas Open winners over the last few years:
*2022 – TPC San Antonio finished 31st in scrambling, getting it up and down 61.11% of the time
Winner J.J. Spaun was ranked 57th. He got it up and down in 14 of the 24 greens he missed.
*2021 – TPC San Antonio finished 23rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 58.79% of the time
Winner Jordan Spieth was ranked 4th, getting it up and down in 24 of the 30 greens he missed.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2020 – TPC San Antonio finished 43rd in scrambling, getting it up and down 63.89% of the time
Winner Corey Conners was ranked 70th, getting it up and down in 4 of the 13 greens he missed.
Most of the time, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Another essential skill for success is putting. So, for our third category, we picked making Putting inside 10 feet.
Last year, TPC San Antonio’s greens were some of the most challenging greens to make putts on Tour in making putts inside ten feet in, as only 87.30% of those putts were made, making it the 9th hardest on Tour. In comparison, the Seaside course at Sea Island Resort in the RSM Classic saw the most putts inside of ten feet, with 89.59%. For the winner, Corey Conners ranked 40th in putting inside ten feet, making 66 of 75 tries inside ten feet (88.00%).
Here is a look at the Putting Inside 10 Feet of the Valero Texas Open winners for the last few years:
*2022 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 88.78% of the putts were made, the 30th hardest of the 36 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner J.J. Spaun made 63 of 67 putts inside ten feet (94.03%) and ranked T-7th.
*2021 – For those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, 87.11% of the putts were made, which was the 11th hardest of the 39 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Jordan Spieth hit 66 of 71 greens (92.96%) and ranked T-5th.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – 87.62% of the putts were made for those putting inside ten feet at TPC San Antonio, as it was the 19th hardest of the 35 courses that tracked putts for the year.
Winner Corey Conners made 65 of 75 putts inside ten feet (86.67%) and ranked T-50th.
So, putting is essential in playing well at TPC San Antonio.

Our last category is one in which players have to find a way of making birdies and eagles to score well, Par Breakers, since making eagles and birdies is significant. Last year, TPC San Antonio had 1,473 birdies, 34th in total birdies, and had 27 eagles made, which ranked T-23rd. Corey Conners was T-1st in the field, and there were no eagles. He was 2nd in Par Breakers.
Remember this: of the ten TPC courses, all except for TPC Scottsdale and TPC Southwind had fewer birdies (Southwind had 1,098 birdies, and TPC Scottsdale had 1,333).

Here is a look at the Par Breakers at the Valero Texas Open winners the last few years:
*2022 – 1,513 birdies were made (36th hardest) and 26 eagles (T-19th) as 20.07% of the holes played under par, making it the 19th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner J.J. Spaun made 23 birdies (the Best) and one eagle, which made 33.33% of the holes he played under par. He ranked first in Par Breakers.
*2021 – 1,457 birdies were made (32nd hardest) and 22 eagles (T-10th) as 18.59% of the holes played under par, making it the 15th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Jordan Spieth made 24 birdies (Best) and no eagles, as 33.33% of the holes were played under par, and he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
*2020 – No event played due to Covid-19.
*2019 – 1,598 birdies were made (37th hardest) and 70 eagles (T-33rd) as 20.97% of the holes played under par, making it the 23rd hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Corey Conners made 29 birdies (Best) and one eagle as 41.67% of the holes played under par as he ranked 1st in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at TPC San Antonio? Corey Conners has won twice and was T-35th in 2022, T-14th in 2021 and T-26th in 2018. Charley Hoffman has been the most consistent; in 17 Valero starts has made 16 cuts and was in the top ten seven times, including a win in 2016, runner-up in 2011, 2019, and 2021, and a T-3rd in 2013. Last year, he was T-22nd. Hoffman isn’t a very good Florida player, missing three straight cuts at Mexico, Players, and Valspar. Kevin Streelman also played well in this event; he made nine cuts in nine starts, and his best finish was 6th in 2019. Last year was T-46th. We also must remember Matt Kuchar, who, in 18 starts, has made 13 cuts, including his previous 11 in a row. He was T-3rd last year and T-2nd in 2022. Kuchar has had one of the worst starts of his career; he has missed six cuts in eight starts, but coming to TPC San Antonio could be good for him.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a great barometer of how a player’s game is from tee to green. It takes a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: This is very easy. Count every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 with 134 of the 156 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all the stats from our Texas Open key fantasy stats

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database covering 69 events, beginning at the start of the 2023 season and ending with the 2024 Houston Open. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $12,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,600
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,500
• Collin Morikawa – $10,100
• Max Homa – $9,900
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,700
• Jordan Spieth – $9,500
• Corey Conners – $9,400
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,200
• Byeong Hun An – $9,000

A perfect field means DraftKings has to take very overpriced guys. An ideal example is Rory McIlroy at $12,300; his price is way too high for a guy who has averaged just 77.4 points in his last five starts. Even his average of 86.3 points in his previous 23 starts shows you want no part of Rory. Hideki Matsuyama at $10,600, has become more sensible since winning at the Genesis. We know his back is not 100%, but he has played well enough to make us feel he is worth the cost. Ludvig Aberg at $10,500, has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde since winning in November, but he finished 8th at the Players, and I think TPC San Antonio is perfect for his game and style of golf. Collin Morikawa at $10,100, is a big no for me, he has struggled with his putter, and since the Sentry, his most significant points earned on Draftkings is 73, so take a pass on him. Same with Max Homa at $9,900; other than finishing T-8th at the Palmer, he has struggled most of the time with his game, so it’s a no from me. Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,700, could be a good choice, he has never played TPC San Antonio, but on paper, the course is up his alley. He was 5th at the Players, so expect a top-ten out of him this week. Jordan Spieth at $9,500 is a no. He has played 72 holes just once in his last four starts, and I don’t see it getting any better this week, even though he has played well in this event. Corey Conners at $9,400, has proven to be a good commodity in this event, and I see the good times rolling. Tommy Fleetwood at $9,200 is a no; playing in the Valero for the first time, he has yet to show us much in 2024. Byeong Hun An is a leap of faith at $9,000; he has been a Jekyll and Hyde all year; he was 4th at the Sentry, runner-up at the Sony, and T-8th at the Palmer. But he missed the cut at the Players; his record shows that he can play well at TPC San Antonio; he was T-6th last year and T-7th in 2019.

Here is our feature which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players who play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Valero Texas Open on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Valero Texas Open starts:

• Matt Kuchar made 11 cuts in 11 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,700.
• Kevin Streelman made 9 cuts in 9 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,400.
• Corey Conners made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,400.
• Lanto Griffin made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,400.
• Charley Hoffman made 12 cuts in 13 starts for a 92.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Ryan Moore made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,500.
• Martin Laird made 8 cuts in 10 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,100.
• Beau Hossler made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,500.
• Brendon Todd made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Padraig Harrington made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,300.
• Andrew Putnam made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,200.
• Lucas Glover made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,300.
• Chesson Hadley made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,000.
• Rickie Fowler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,000.
• Byeong Hun An made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Billy Horschel made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Troy Merritt made 6 cuts in 9 starts for a 66.6%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,500.
• Jimmy Walker made 9 cuts in 13 starts for a 69.2%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,100.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I like Billy Horschel at $8,900. He played well on this course and has done well in his last two starts, T-12th at Valspar and T-7th at the Houston Open. Rickie Fowler at $8,000 is a reasonable price for a guy that has played well on this course. For the year, he has made his cuts but has yet to have any high finishes. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,900, has been solid all year and is worth the money. Akshay Bhatia at $7,700 is good because his game is coming around, and the course suits him. Eric Cole at $7,600, has been up and down, but this course suits him, and I can see him doing very well. Could this be the week for Keith Mitchell at $7,600? He played great until his final round 77 at the Valspar and missed the cut in Houston. But he will be back; he plays well at TPC San Antonio, so he is the right choice with the right price. Beau Hossler at $7,500 is another to think about; he was T-4th in 2022 and has played ok in this event the last five years.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Lots of bargains; Maverick McNealy, at $7,400, has played solid all year and should be good this week. Of course, Lucas Glover at $7,300 is good, and I can see him getting lots of points for a small price. Patrick Rodgers at $6,800 is reasonable for a player who plays well on courses like TPC San Antonio. Matt Kuchar at $6,700 is a must-take; he has made 11 of 11 cuts in this event, and yes, he struggled in 2024, but I can see him turn it around this week. Charley Hoffman at $6,400, is another can’t miss; he has played great in this event and is still playing well. Kevin Streelman at $5,600, has an excellent track record at TPC San Antonio and can do some good this week. Lanto Griffin at $5,400 is also a good buy and will make the cut.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• For the regulars of past Valero Texas Opens, 14 years ago was the start of a new era here. For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice, and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has yet to finish better than T30th in eight tries, while Johnson missed the cut in 2010, 2017, and 2021. In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2023, hitting greens is the key for many in the top ten. So a combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lots of greens and putt well. In looking at the 13 winners at TPC San Antonio, all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011, who ranked T40th in greens hit in 2017 Kevin Chappell ranked T-36th in putts in 2019 Corey Conners ranked T-30th in putts, in 2021 Jordan Spieth was T-57th in greens hit and in 2023 Corey Conners was 1st in Greens hit but T-53rd in # of putts.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it made sense with wins from inexperienced winners. It’s been a mixed bag, with inexperienced players like 2022 winner J.J. Spaun, Brendan Steele in 2011, Martin Laird om 2-13, Andrew Landry in 2018, Kevin Chappell won in 2017, Charley Hoffman won in 2016 and Jimmy Walker won in 2015 and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch. But we also have players with winning records like Jordan Spieth winning in 2021, Corey Conners winning in 2019 & 2023, Adam Scott winning in 2010, and Ben Curtis in 2012, so the players should know the course by now but look for a non-marquee guy to win.
• TPC San Antonio is renowned for its challenging layout. Since its debut in 2010, it has consistently ranked among the top 20 most demanding courses on the PGA Tour. Even in 2019, when it dropped to 28th due to perfect weather conditions, it remained a formidable course. This challenging nature of the course adds to the intensity and excitement of the Valero Texas Open.
• A pretty unique trend at the Texas Open is that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast. Since 1988, the 3rd round leader has won 24 of the 35 tournaments so, if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the championship. Since moving to TPC San Antonio in 2010, seven of the 13 winners have led after the third round; last year, Corey Conners went into the final round in 2nd, a shot back of the leader. In 2022, J.J. Spaun went into the final round as a co-leader with three others, shot 69, and won. In 2021, Jordan Spieth went into the final round, tied for the lead with Matt Glover. In 2019, Corey Conners was 2nd going into the final round and won. In 2018, Andrew Landry and 2017 Kevin Chappell both led going into the final round.
• Look for the course to play tough, with thick, rough, and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players. Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio. Of those who have finished in the top 3, only nine have been in the top ten in driving distance. So this is a course where power won’t dictate a win.
• 16 previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs. But as a bit of an oddity, the last playoff was in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll. That was the previous year that LaCantera held the event, so in
• In looking at the long-range weather forecast, it’s expected to be good with just cloudy conditions, but winds will blow between 8 and 14 mph.