Masters Key Fantasy Stats

Masters

April 11th – 14th, 2024

Augusta National G.C.

Augusta, GA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,555

Purse: $20 million 

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jon Rahm

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last April’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
How did the field score at the Masters
Last year’s Masters was played at its regular time in April for the third straight year. In April 2023, the course played to a 72.96 average and was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average at Augusta National for the last few years:
*2022 – Played at its regular time in April for the second straight year. The average was 73.95, was the 3rd hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 71.75, it was the 21st hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Masters was played in November 2020, postponed due to COVID. Now, in this earlier 2020 Masters, the course played entirely differently in November, and its 71.75 made it the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters, it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters, in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average, beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course as the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. Now that year had very wet conditions, Sunday’s forecast was so bad with afternoon storms they had to tee it up early at 7:30 am with threesomes off of both tees.

Looking at the weather for Augusta
The good news is that Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be perfect as Friday will be 72 and very windy with gusts up to 20 mph. Winds decrease on Saturday at 9 mph, with temperatures increasing to 77. Sunday will be even better: sunny skies, 85 degrees, with winds of 10 mph. But Thursday is going to be a problem; they are calling for it to be 79 degrees, but with thunderstorms and a 90% chance of rain. So, with that forecast of the rain, the prospect of Augusta National playing fast won’t happen. So, look for scoring to be on the low side. The course will lose much of its bite, something it is famous for. Even with the Subair pumps under all the greens, Augusta officials won’t have firm and fast conditions, which is how they hope the course will play.

Does Augusta favor the bomber?
One thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long-hitters. That is partly true. Hitting it long does have its advantage, especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this in 2020 when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under, and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in Regulation, the best in the field. The following year, 2021, went back to the norm as Hideki Matsuyama hit an average of 288.8 yards and ranked 47th of those who made the cut. Despite Matsuyama hitting it much shorter, he still played the Par 5s in 11 under, the same as Johnson. In 2022, Scottie Scheffler ranked 16th in driving distance, and he was 8 under on the Par 5s. Last year’s winner, Jon Rahm’s drives were 298.8 yards, and he ranked 24th, hit 52 greens that ranked 3rd, and was 10 under on the Par 5s, showing that Matsuyama, Scheffler, and Rahm didn’t win because of length.
Now showing players that aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and 2017, both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short. The perfect example was in 2019. Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also, in 2016 and 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance, while in 2015, Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top ten for the week in April of last year. Four of the top 11 were within driving distance. In 2021, five in the top 12 were in the top ten; in 2019, only 3; while in 2018, only 4; while in 2017, only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015, only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think. They have been keeping stats at the Masters since 1980, and of the last 42 winners (Seve in 1980 had no stats), 19 winners were in the top 10, and only six were in the top 3. So hitting it long has advantages, but even short hitters win at Augusta. A perfect example is Zach Johnson, winning in 2007 and ranked 57th in driving distance. On the par 5s, he laid up on all of them and still played the par 5s in 11 under, so length means very little.

We need to go back to the dark ages of stat keeping.
In looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t report stroke gain stats, which we have been using more, so we have to return to the old-fashioned stats. The same is true in putting. They don’t “publicly” tell us the stats for the number of putts made inside five feet or ten feet, so looking at putting stats available at the Masters, they don’t tell the story. So, in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious: the course caters to those who hit lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So, these are the four stats we picked for this week’s key course stats.

So, which stats are vital?
Our first category is Greens in Regulation. In looking at Augusta National last year compared to other PGA Tour courses, Augusta ranked 11th in greens in Regulation (60.65). In 2022, Augusta ranked 5th in greens in Regulation (57.36). This was the lowest since it ranked 1st in 2007, and for the last six years, its average rank was 0f 12.9 with an average of 61.61%, which has been a very consistent number. As for importance, last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, ranked 3rd; in 2022, Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th, and the 2021 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, was T-10th. Of the 43 winners that have stats, 28 of them were in the top ten, with nine leading that stat. Jack Nicklaus in 1986 was 1st in Greens hit, and since then, only seven of them weren’t in the top 20. Patrick Reed in 2018 ranked 21st, which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank in the previous 23 Masters champions going back to 1997. We can see the importance of not only hitting greens but placing the ball on the greens to have the best putt since the greens are very severe in slope and break.

Our next category is scrambling, and last year, the course ranked 7th while Jon Rahm ranked 1st.
*In 2022 the course ranked 4th while Scottie Scheffler ranked T-2nd.
*In 2021, the stat was again influential as the course ranked 13th while Hideki Matsuyama was 2nd.
*In November 2020, Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling.
*In 2019, Tiger was on the other end of the spectrum, ranking T-50th.
*In 2018 Augusta was 5th on Tour while winner Patrick Reed was T-16th.
The point is Augusta is one of the hardest courses to make par on when you miss the greens, so the winner better be able to get it up and down.

Our third stat to look at is three-putt avoidance at Augusta. The course was 7th, while Jon Rahm was T-51st, as he had five three-putts throughout the play.
*In 2022, the course was 4th as Scottie Scheffler was T-23rd (he had two, three putts, and one four-putt over the 72 holes).
*In 2021, the course was 3rd while Hideki Matsuyama was T-33rd (He had four, three putts).
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week).
*In 2019, the course was the 6th hardest on Tour, while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts).
*In 2018, Augusta played 5th hardest on Tour, while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and was ranked T-13th.
*To show the importance of not three-putting, when Dustin Johnson defended his Masters title in 2021, he missed the cut by making six three-puts over 36 holes.
*For those wondering who the last champion who went 72 holes without a three-putt, Jose Maria Olazabal accomplished that feat in 1999. Before that, Tiger Woods in 1997, Ben Crenshaw in 1995, and Olazabal had no three-putts for the week.

Our last category is par 5.
Last year, the Par 5 average for the field I was ranked 20th with a 4.67 average. Winner Rahm was 10 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Brooks Koepka was the best at 11 under).
*In 2022, the Par 5 average for the field ranked T-6th with a 4.78 average or 2.82 under for the week. Winner Scheffler was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Cameron Smith was the best at 9 under).
*In 2021 Augusta ranked 4th with a 4.311 average. As for Matsuyama, he ranked T-2nd at 4.31 or 11 under for the week.
*In 2020 the course ranked 34th at 4.59 while Johnson played the par 5s in 11 under.
*In 2019, the course average was 4.58, ranking T-33rd on Tour. Tiger was 8 under for the week, ranking T-27th.
*In 2018, Augusta was 4.70 and T-17th on Tour. Reed was 13 under for the week, which is the key to how he won.
You look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by five different players (Greg Norman in 1995, Tiger Woods in 2010, Ernie Els in 2013, Phil Mickelson in 2015, and Marc Leishman in 2021), and there were only five different players at 14 under so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone, so playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory.
Since 1997, every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett, who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 26 years, they average 8 under, so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So, let’s take a more careful look at how the last nine champions became victorious.
*Last year, Jon Rahm was T-3rd in greens hit, T-4th in Driving Accuracy, 1st in scrambling, T-17th in Overall Putting Average, and 10 under on the par 5s. He dominated early and held on for the victory, doing just about everything right.
*In 2022, Scottie Scheffler was 5th in greens hit, T-2nd in scrambling, T-23rd in three-putt avoidance, and was 8 under on the par 5s. He dominated early in the first two rounds and held on for the victory.
*In 2021, Hideki Matsuyama was T-7th in greens hit but 2nd in scrambling and had an average putting week, which is good for him. Matsuyama played the par 5s in 11 under, which was 4th best.
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong. It was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it since the tournament was played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course had a different bite than it typically has. In November, 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72-hole score. Dustin Johnson became the first player in history to break the 270 mark as he shot 20 under 268. Of course, records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is, for the first time in Masters history, someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even more challenging to swallow is that the winner didn’t accomplish the record. Runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. The Masters’ statistician was busy as 40 Masters records were broken and 14 were tied. So we can see that the move back to April was well welcomed by those in charge of course setup.
Back to our roll call of recent winnings,
*In 2019, Tiger did it with his ironwork. He hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies, which were 2nd best.
*In 2018, Reed did it with his putter. He had the least amount of putts and was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
*In 2017, Sergio Garcia won it with his ball striking. He was 2nd in fairways hits and T-2nd in greens hits. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
*In 2016 Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation. He was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
*How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth? He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other essential item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind is making lots of birdies; in 2015, Spieth led that stat, making 28 birdies for the week, while Willett was T-16th, making just 13 for the week.

Again, if a person can hit many greens, scramble well on the ones he misses, and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10-foot range, he is a can’t miss to not only contend but possibly win.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is an excellent barometer of how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close, scrambling is essential. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some challenging places

*Three putt avoidance: Augusta has the toughest greens in the world to putt on. They only average 6,486 square feet, so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy, and you can be faced with many ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away, getting up and down in two putts is tough, and it is essential.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters due have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters, and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But to win, it’s important to do well on the Par 5s.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023, with 64 of the 89 players having stats. One other thing, the Masters is not part of the PGA Tours shotlink program, so that you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.