BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Of course, and we are all getting sick of it, LIV golf.  In some respects, the fans are getting tired of the bickering about more money and more status.  We are seeing it with a drop in the TV Rating, even at Golfstats we are seeing cancellations due to the greed factor out there.  In these times when everyone across the globe is cutting back and watching their dollars, you have some players who fly on a private jet and bring their own cook and trainer, and others complain about not getting more money.  Things are at a meltdown point between the tours and LIV golf.  Just like anything, these are adults who really don’t want to be part of the news on this.  Like life in general, people will hang out with people they like and associate with, so I see very few problems.  As for the Champions dinner on Tuesday night, I can’t say anyone wants to make an ass of themselves, so I think it will be very civil.  The one thing I can say about LIV golf, there are people who watch it because they think it’s different, but those numbers are dwindling.  I would have to say I can’t tell you the importance of a LIV golfer winning this week.  Many feel that LIV golf is like eggs being placed on a hot summer road, they are getting very overcooked and won’t be edible much longer.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

As for those who are favorites and those who have fallen out of that circle, I think that for months, we have been talking a lot about Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm being big favorites.  Sure, McIlroy hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the summer at the Scottish Open in July.  Now he did win on the DP World Tour in Dubai in January, but he has struggled with his game.  He played better at the Valero Texas Open, but I don’t favor Rory this week.  After that, you have Jon Rahm, and many in the media feel that this is the first real-time that the PGA Tour is worried about someone going to LIV.  Can it be stopped, your guess is as good as my thoughts.

Then you have the magical majors for gamblers, in which everyone gets together, and frankly, none of the favorites of LIV golf bring much to the table this week. For those playing one-and-done, on paper, the sensible pick is someone on the LIV golf circle. But none of the favorites are playing well, so there is a lot of tough thinking ahead.

Things you need to know about the Masters

This week will be the 88th edition of the Masters. It has been played every year except between 1943 and 1945, when the war suspended the championship. It is the only major played on the same course each year at Augusta National.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played on Augusta National.  But with the hot summers in June, Jones approached the USGA with the idea of playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters’ Tournament, but Jones objected, thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted, and that title was used for five years until 1939 when Jones relented, and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, S.C.
• 7,555 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that he would be able to build a championship golf course near his Atlanta home one day.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s, he met New York banker Clifford Roberts, who helped Jones with his vision. After looking at several places, they both decided on Augusta, Ga., as the site provided the best weather in the winter months.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that, according to Jones, plans would utilize the natural shape and slope of the property to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a venue that relied on severe rough as a hazard and hoped that he could find a piece of property with a stream running through to build several holes around it for water hazards.  He also wanted to create a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, using mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts in their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres, once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south, and they called it Fruitland Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883, the business flourished. Many flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today, they serve as the club’s entrance on the property.  But Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910, the business stopped operation, and the heirs sought a buyer.  That buyer appeared in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for an ideal golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years, waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000, and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club. Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also agreed in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after failing in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans, and construction started in July 1931. Unfortunately, after the construction work was completed, Mackenzie died before Augusta National was entirely covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with limited member play. A formal opening took place in January 1933.

Since the course opened, it has been changed several times in 87 years. In 1934, the tournament nines were different and were changed for the 1935 event. Also, the grasses have changed over the years between bent and Bermudagrass. Today, Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with ryegrass. The greens are bentgrass, which gives them tremendous speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the PGA Tour average. Water comes into play on five holes on the backside, with only 43 bunkers.

For the 2019 Masters, the 5th hole was lengthened.  The land purchase that they made many years ago allowed Augusta National to shut down Berkman’s Road, which the old 5th tee was up against.  So they could move the tee back 30 yards and now make the 5th hole an absolute monster.

When the players arrived last year, they noticed a couple of changes to three of the holes.  The par 4, 11th, had a new tee that added 15 yards to the hole.  The tee is also to the golfer’s left of the old tee.  The fairway has been re-contoured, and several trees have been removed on the right side.  This change is not to make the hole harder but should make the fairway more obtainable off the tee.

The second change is to the par 5 15th hole. Twenty yards have been added to the hole, and the fairway was also re-contoured. Twenty yards shouldn’t mean much for the players. Long hitters will have to use a long iron to get home in two, but for the player who is average length off the tee, it may give them more of a decision if they want to hit the green in two.

The last change came on the par 4, 18th hole.  For the players, this is a bit strange, 13 yards have been added to the back of the tee, but they are saying it doesn’t mean a change in length to the hole.  Offices have changed due to more players driving it past the big bunker on the left side of the fairway.  But despite the 13 added yards, because of the dogleg right nature of the hole, it won’t add 13 yards.

With the changes, it adds 35 yards to the scorecard, bringing the total yardage up to 7,510.

Now for 2023, the big change was to the 13th hole.  We have been told that this change was years in the making, and it took the purchase of some land from neighboring Augusta Country Club for it to happen.  We thought that it would happen in 2022, and it didn’t.  Now for this year, 35 yards have been added to the 13th hole.  This is a monumental change, one that for half the field means they won’t be able to go for the green in two.  For the other half, it will mean a longer shot into the green, meaning more of a challenge.  But for some of the really long hitters who have been using 3-wood off the tee for placement of the drive, they can now flair away with the driver and not worry about rolling through the fairway into the trees and the hazards that brings.

Changes for 2024

Ten yards have been added to the 2nd hole, bringing the total yardage to 7,555.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

One last thing: the forecast for this week isn’t great.  But once things clear up Friday morning things will get better over the weekend.:

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Augusta National.

This is based on the most important stats for Augusta National, based on data from last April’s Masters, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
How did the field score at the Masters
Last year’s Masters was played at its regular time in April for the third straight year. In April 2023, the course played to a 72.96 average and was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.
Here is a look at the scoring average at Augusta National for the last few years:
*2022 – Played at its regular time in April for the second straight year. The average was 73.95, was the 3rd hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 71.75, it was the 21st hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Masters was played in November 2020, postponed due to COVID. Now, in this earlier 2020 Masters, the course played entirely differently in November, and its 71.75 made it the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2021 (despite it historically being called the 2020 Masters, it was played in the 2021 PGA Tour season). Even more relevant, it was only the third Masters, in which the scoring average was below par and the lowest scoring average, beating out the 71.87 field average in 2019, ranking the course as the 16th hardest on the PGA Tour. Now that year had very wet conditions, Sunday’s forecast was so bad with afternoon storms they had to tee it up early at 7:30 am with threesomes off of both tees.

Looking at the weather for Augusta
The good news is that Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be perfect as Friday will be 72 and very windy with gusts up to 20 mph. Winds decrease on Saturday at 9 mph, with temperatures increasing to 77. Sunday will be even better: sunny skies, 85 degrees, with winds of 10 mph. But Thursday is going to be a problem; they are calling for it to be 79 degrees, but with thunderstorms and a 90% chance of rain. So, with that forecast of the rain, the prospect of Augusta National playing fast won’t happen. So, look for scoring to be on the low side. The course will lose much of its bite, something it is famous for. Even with the Subair pumps under all the greens, Augusta officials won’t have firm and fast conditions, which is how they hope the course will play.

Does Augusta favor the bomber?

One thing that we have to look at is the claim that Augusta is great for long-hitters. That is partly true. Hitting it long does have its advantage, especially on Augusta’s par 5s. Dustin Johnson proved this in 2020 when he was 6th in driving distance on the measured holes with a 306.7 average. Where Johnson was able to shine was on the par 5s, he was 11 under, and only one player was better than him. Johnson took advantage of his length as he hit 60 greens in Regulation, the best in the field. The following year, 2021, went back to the norm as Hideki Matsuyama hit an average of 288.8 yards and ranked 47th of those who made the cut. Despite Matsuyama hitting it much shorter, he still played the Par 5s in 11 under, the same as Johnson. In 2022, Scottie Scheffler ranked 16th in driving distance, and he was 8 under on the Par 5s. Last year’s winner, Jon Rahm’s drives were 298.8 yards, and he ranked 24th, hit 52 greens that ranked 3rd, and was 10 under on the Par 5s, showing that Matsuyama, Scheffler, and Rahm didn’t win because of length.
Now showing players that aren’t as long as Johnson, in 2018 and 2017, both winners Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia showed their advantage as they both ranked 6th in driving distance and played the par 5s in 7 under for Garcia and 13 under for Reed. But in looking at the past champions, it’s mixed with long hitters and short. The perfect example was in 2019. Tiger Woods ranked 44th in driving distance, the highest of champions since Jordan Spieth in 2015. Also, in 2016 and 2015. Danny Willett ranked 32nd in driving distance, while in 2015, Jordan Spieth ranked 52nd. But look at the top ten for the week in April of last year. Four of the top 11 were within driving distance. In 2021, five in the top 12 were in the top ten; in 2019, only 3; while in 2018, only 4; while in 2017, only 3 out of 10 while in 2016, 5 out of 14 while in 2015, only one of the 11 were ranked in the top-ten in distance, showing that there is more to Augusta than people think. They have been keeping stats at the Masters since 1980, and of the last 42 winners (Seve in 1980 had no stats), 19 winners were in the top 10, and only six were in the top 3. So hitting it long has advantages, but even short hitters win at Augusta. A perfect example is Zach Johnson, winning in 2007 and ranked 57th in driving distance. On the par 5s, he laid up on all of them and still played the par 5s in 11 under, so length means very little.

We need to go back to the dark ages of stat keeping.
In looking at the stats, Augusta National doesn’t report stroke gain stats, which we have been using more, so we have to return to the old-fashioned stats. The same is true in putting. They don’t “publicly” tell us the stats for the number of putts made inside five feet or ten feet, so looking at putting stats available at the Masters, they don’t tell the story. So, in looking at the stats for Augusta National, one thing is obvious: the course caters to those who hit lots of greens, can scramble well, can avoid three-putts, and play well on the par 5s. So, these are the four stats we picked for this week’s key course stats.

So, which stats are vital?
Our first category is Greens in Regulation. In looking at Augusta National last year compared to other PGA Tour courses, Augusta ranked 11th in greens in Regulation (60.65). In 2022, Augusta ranked 5th in greens in Regulation (57.36). This was the lowest since it ranked 1st in 2007, and for the last six years, its average rank was 0f 12.9 with an average of 61.61%, which has been a very consistent number. As for importance, last year’s winner, Jon Rahm, ranked 3rd; in 2022, Scottie Scheffler ranked 5th, and the 2021 winner, Hideki Matsuyama, was T-10th. Of the 43 winners that have stats, 28 of them were in the top ten, with nine leading that stat. Jack Nicklaus in 1986 was 1st in Greens hit, and since then, only seven of them weren’t in the top 20. Patrick Reed in 2018 ranked 21st, which is a dramatic withdrawal because it was the 3rd highest rank in the previous 23 Masters champions going back to 1997. We can see the importance of not only hitting greens but placing the ball on the greens to have the best putt since the greens are very severe in slope and break.

Our next category is scrambling, and last year, the course ranked 7th while Jon Rahm ranked 1st.
*In 2022 the course ranked 4th while Scottie Scheffler ranked T-2nd.
*In 2021, the stat was again influential as the course ranked 13th while Hideki Matsuyama was 2nd.
*In November 2020, Dustin Johnson was 4th in Scrambling.
*In 2019, Tiger was on the other end of the spectrum, ranking T-50th.
*In 2018 Augusta was 5th on Tour while winner Patrick Reed was T-16th.
The point is Augusta is one of the hardest courses to make par on when you miss the greens, so the winner better be able to get it up and down.

Our third stat to look at is three-putt avoidance at Augusta. The course was 7th, while Jon Rahm was T-51st, as he had five three-putts throughout the play.
*In 2022, the course was 4th as Scottie Scheffler was T-23rd (he had two, three putts, and one four-putt over the 72 holes).
*In 2021, the course was 3rd while Hideki Matsuyama was T-33rd (He had four, three putts).
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson was T-5th (he had one three-putt all week).
*In 2019, the course was the 6th hardest on Tour, while Tiger was T-22nd (only had two three-putts).
*In 2018, Augusta played 5th hardest on Tour, while Reed only had two three-putts for the entire week and was ranked T-13th.
*To show the importance of not three-putting, when Dustin Johnson defended his Masters title in 2021, he missed the cut by making six three-puts over 36 holes.
*For those wondering who the last champion who went 72 holes without a three-putt, Jose Maria Olazabal accomplished that feat in 1999. Before that, Tiger Woods in 1997, Ben Crenshaw in 1995, and Olazabal had no three-putts for the week.

Our last category is par 5.
Last year, the Par 5 average for the field I was ranked 20th with a 4.67 average. Winner Rahm was 10 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Brooks Koepka was the best at 11 under).
*In 2022, the Par 5 average for the field ranked T-6th with a 4.78 average or 2.82 under for the week. Winner Scheffler was 8 under for the week, which ranked T-2nd (Cameron Smith was the best at 9 under).
*In 2021 Augusta ranked 4th with a 4.311 average. As for Matsuyama, he ranked T-2nd at 4.31 or 11 under for the week.
*In 2020 the course ranked 34th at 4.59 while Johnson played the par 5s in 11 under.
*In 2019, the course average was 4.58, ranking T-33rd on Tour. Tiger was 8 under for the week, ranking T-27th.
*In 2018, Augusta was 4.70 and T-17th on Tour. Reed was 13 under for the week, which is the key to how he won.
You look at the history of the Masters, the best is 15 under by five different players (Greg Norman in 1995, Tiger Woods in 2010, Ernie Els in 2013, Phil Mickelson in 2015, and Marc Leishman in 2021), and there were only five different players at 14 under so you can see that 13 under by Reed was a milestone, so playing the par 5s was very important in Reed’s victory.
Since 1997, every winner has been under par on the par 5s except for Danny Willett, who played them in even par in 2016. But if you average out the winners in the last 26 years, they average 8 under, so you can see the importance of playing the par 5s well for the week.

So, let’s take a more careful look at how the last nine champions became victorious.
*Last year, Jon Rahm was T-3rd in greens hit, T-4th in Driving Accuracy, 1st in scrambling, T-17th in Overall Putting Average, and 10 under on the par 5s. He dominated early and held on for the victory, doing just about everything right.
*In 2022, Scottie Scheffler was 5th in greens hit, T-2nd in scrambling, T-23rd in three-putt avoidance, and was 8 under on the par 5s. He dominated early in the first two rounds and held on for the victory.
*In 2021, Hideki Matsuyama was T-7th in greens hit but 2nd in scrambling and had an average putting week, which is good for him. Matsuyama played the par 5s in 11 under, which was 4th best.
*In 2020, Dustin Johnson did nothing wrong. It was probably the best overall display ever seen at the Masters. Of course, this claim does have an asterisk next to it since the tournament was played in November. That does make sense when you see the scores. What Augusta National prides itself on the course had a different bite than it typically has. In November, 43 players were under par, and two of its biggest records fell. The first was the low 72-hole score. Dustin Johnson became the first player in history to break the 270 mark as he shot 20 under 268. Of course, records are meant to be broken, but the one record that probably stings the most is, for the first time in Masters history, someone shot four sub-60 rounds. What makes the record being broken even more challenging to swallow is that the winner didn’t accomplish the record. Runner-up Cameron Smith will go into the record books with his rounds of 67-68-69-69. The Masters’ statistician was busy as 40 Masters records were broken and 14 were tied. So we can see that the move back to April was well welcomed by those in charge of course setup.
Back to our roll call of recent winnings,
*In 2019, Tiger did it with his ironwork. He hit 58 of 72 greens to lead the field. This helped him to make 22 birdies, which were 2nd best.
*In 2018, Reed did it with his putter. He had the least amount of putts and was the best in one-putts with 38. But playing the par 5s in 13 under put him over the top.
*In 2017, Sergio Garcia won it with his ball striking. He was 2nd in fairways hits and T-2nd in greens hits. This allowed him to miss the rare putt here and there, but still enough for the win.
*In 2016 Danny Willett was T-6th in greens in regulation. He was 1st in scrambling, T-2nd in three-putt avoidance, and 54th in par 5 average.
*How about 2015 for Jordan Spieth? He ranked 2nd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 75% of his greens. He was T-10th in scrambling, T22nd in three-putt avoidance, and T-4th in Par 5 Scoring. One other essential item that won’t be on this list but you should have in the back of your mind is making lots of birdies; in 2015, Spieth led that stat, making 28 birdies for the week, while Willett was T-16th, making just 13 for the week.

Again, if a person can hit many greens, scramble well on the ones he misses, and make a good share of putts, especially in the 4 to 10-foot range, he is a can’t miss to not only contend but possibly win.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is an excellent barometer of how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with tough shots to get it close, scrambling is essential. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some challenging places

*Three putt avoidance: Augusta has the toughest greens in the world to putt on. They only average 6,486 square feet, so they aren’t big or small, but they are sloppy, and you can be faced with many ten-foot lag putts. So when you are 30 or 40 feet away, getting up and down in two putts is tough, and it is essential.

*Par 5 scoring: This is the one place long hitters due have an advantage on, the par 5s. Three of the four are within reach of the longest hitters, and depending on how Augusta sets up the 8th hole, that could be easy or hard. But to win, it’s important to do well on the Par 5s.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2023, with 64 of the 89 players having stats. One other thing, the Masters is not part of the PGA Tours shotlink program, so that you won’t see stats like Strokes Gained this week:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Valor Texas, a total of 70 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 50 playing in at least ten events:

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $12,100
• Jon Rahm – $11,200
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Brooks Koepka – $10,200
• Wyndham Clark – $10,000
• Xander Schauffele – $9,900
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,600
• Viktor Hovland – $9,500
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,400
• Jordan Spieth – $9,300
• Will Zalatoris – $9,200
• Ludvig Aberg – $9,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000

Have to say that the Masters could be one of the hardest events to pick.  If you look at the 10 names above, 9 are great choices, with half being slam dunks to finish in the top five.  So you have to choose well in those below $8,400, and it’s very hard to pick once you get in the below $7,500 category.

I look at these prices, and my first thought is that they are more than fair.  The last thing you hate to see is a couple of overpriced guys in the $10,000 or above range, but that isn’t the case.  Maybe it is because the field is smaller, of course, there has to be a scale based on the number of players in the field.  So, with the Master’s field at just 89, maybe this is the reason.  Scottie Scheffler at $12,100 is simply unbeatable and scores so many points you have to take him.  Now you don’t want to take Jon Rahm at $11,200, he hasn’t shown us much in the five LIV events he has played in.  Rory McIlroy at $10,800 can go in any direction.  He has not played well so it’s easy to pass him my.  But he is working with Butch Harman, and every time Harman works with a star, they come through.  I never forgot when it was announced that Phil Mickelson was working with Butch, sure enough, weeks later, he won the Players Championship.  So yes he is a good pick.  Can’t say the same for Brooks Koepka at $10,200.  He hasn’t played well most of the year and changed putters.  I say to take a pass on him, not ready to win this week.  Wyndham Clark at $10,000 is a great pick.  Ever since he won the AT&T Pebble Beach, I have known he would play well this week, so pick him.  Xander Schauffele at $9,900 is also a good pick, In his last 11 starts, he has only been out of the top-10, three times.  He has got the game and played great to show that a major is knocking on his door.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,600 is also a poor pick, I know what he has done this year on LIV Golf, but his record at Augusta is not good.  Viktor Hovland at $9,500 is also a poor pick, he is redoing is swing and looks like road kill he is playing so poorly.  So pass on Viktor.  The same with Patrick Cantlay at $9,400, he has struggled with his game all season and can see that struggle continue this week.  Jordan Spieth at $9,300 is a good bet to not only make cut but contend this week, his game is going into high mod right now.  Also, like Will Zalatoris at $9,200, his game has had good moments, and I think he is ready to win a major.  Ludvig Aberg at $9,100 is also a good choice, I think he can win the Masters on his first try.  Other than Scheffler, my main pick is Hideki Matsuyama at $9,000.  He has put together a fine bit of worth, the back is fine, and his game is fine, so don’t hesitate to pick him.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players who play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the 2010 Masters on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Masters starts:

• Adam Scott made 14 cuts in 14 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,100.
• Tiger Woods made 10 cuts in 10 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,800.
• Cameron Smith made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,900.
• Jon Rahm made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,200.
• Tony Finau made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,600.
• Viktor Hovland made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Scottie Scheffler made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 12,100.
• Collin Morikawa made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Hideki Matsuyama made 11 cuts in 12 starts for a 91.69%.  His DraftKings cost is 89,000.
• Jordan Spieth made 9 cuts in 10 starts for a 90.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,300.
• Dustin Johnson made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.33%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Xander Schauffele made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,900.
• Jason Day made 9 cuts in 12 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Brooks Koepka made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, we have a big yes, Dustin Johnson at $8,800.  Johnson has been gearing up for this and feel he will do well this week.  Cameron Young at $8,500, is a good choice, he was T-7th last year.  Max Homa at $8,300 is good since he has played so well on the PGA Tour. Sam Burns at $8,100 is a good pick, he has played well in his trek across this country.  If you are looking for that great dark horse, go no further than Shane Lowry at $8,000.  Has played good of late, in his last four Masters was T-16th last year, T-3rd in 2022, T-21st in 2021 and T-25th in 2020.  Matt Fitzpatrick, at $7,900, has been very consistent of late and was T-10th last year at the Masters.  Jason Day at $7,700 is good because of his good record at Augusta, plus he has played well in 2024.   Sahith Theegala is only $7,700 and worth it, not only has he finished in the top ten in three of his last five starts he was T-9th at Augusta last year.  Corey Conners at $7,500 is worth it?  Very consistent this year, like that at the Masters was T-6th in 2022, T-8th in 2021, and T-10th in 202o.

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Nick Taylor at $7,000, will make the cut and help you rack up a lot of points.  Tiger Woods at $6,800 is a good bargin if he can make it 72 holes.  Many feel he is hitting the ball great so we have to wait and see. I am not a big Sergio Garcia fan, but will take him at the price of just $6,800.  He is not going to win but he can give you a lot to cheer about. Can Denny McCarthy, who is just $6,200, have the same putting week as he had over the week in the Valero Texas Open? it will take him a long week.

The key stat for the winner:

There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First, it’s precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw, and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  Defending champion Jon Rahm is great off the tee and balls close to the hole.   All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.

Precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens, you have to position shots to the green in an area where you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the Masters champions, a poor putter usually doesn’t win. Avoiding three putts is essential.

Zach Johnson had six three-putts in 2007 and Bubba Watson in 2012 with four, which dents our theory about three putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we will have a new trend. I will bet that the winner this year has the least three putts of anyone else in the field. Last year Scottie Scheffler had two, three putts, and one four putts over the 72 holes. The year before, 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had four three putts. In 2020, Dustin Johnson only had one three-putt.  In 2019, Tiger Woods had two in his win.

To show you how theories don’t work continually, look at the argument that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Phil, and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Zach Johnson, Mark O’Meara, and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  Gosh, look at Jordan Spieth in 2015, he ranked 52nd in driving distance at Augusta in his winning year.  No matter what, length is significant, look at Tiger Woods’s victory in 1997. Reaching par-5s with wedges is a considerable advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t sometimes work at the Masters. Look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He lay up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  With wet fairways and greens due to the weather, it brings in shorter hitters and gives them a chance.

Stats are great, but in reality, they don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993 the only real favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods, who won in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 & 2019, and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  Also have to say 2023 champion Jon Rahm is important.  How many folks placed a bet on 2019 winner Tiger Woods, or the year before with Patrick Reed or 2016 champion Danny Willett? I would say not many people. Still, players like Sergio Garcia in 2017, Jordan Spieth in 2015, Bubba Watson in 2014, and Adam Scott winning in 2013 weren’t a big surprise. But nobody would have thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012, it was a big surprise for Charl Schwartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning it in 2009, Trevor Immelman winning it in 2008, and Zach Johnson winning it in 2007.  Still, in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir, who won in 2003, and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even more prominent surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer, and Ben Crenshaw, who came from out of the blue to win.  Still, one thing is certain; you must have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner from the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be broken, and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us this week, but it’s doubtful.  So, let’s see who could possibly be a “surprise winner” this year.  My first choice is Hideaki Matsuyama, who nobody is even thinking of and could come out of it as a hero.

I can say this: look at the top 30 or 40 players off the world rankings.  We hear it all the time how the best players seem to win majors.  If you go off the world rankings, Ben Curtis was 396 when he won the British Open in 2003, and Shaun Micheel was 169 when he won the 2003 PGA Championship.  At the Masters, you won’t find that kind of a winner, since 1988 there have been only two Masters champions not in the top 50, #56 Zach Johnson in 2007 and #69 Angel Cabrera in 2009.  In 2020, Dustin Johnson was #1, and in 2019, Tiger Woods was 12th going into the Masters, 2018 Patrick Reed was 24th in the rankings, in 2017, Sergio Garcia was 11th, in 2016, Danny Willett was ranked 12th going into the Masters while Jordan Spieth in 2015 was 4th going into the Masters.  In the 35 years of the world rankings, the average Masters champion ranked 14th.  We’ve seen six #1s win; 20 of the 34 winners were in the top ten the week before their victory. Last year, Scottie Scheffler was number one, and in 2021, Matsuyama was 25th the week before his Masters win. So you can expect someone who is high in the world rankings to win this week.  Not harping on this, but we could have that trend broken if Brooks Koepka wins, he is 118th in the rankings right now.

Last, experience and wisdom are important; that’s why Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start was Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979. Experience is always important at the Masters, so look for a winner, someone with a lot of experience.