BlogRBC Heritage Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

First of all, sorry that this is a bit late.

So, what did you all think of the Masters?

I have to say it’s nice to see Scottie Scheffler win his second Masters. He is the best golfer right now and is now reaching Tiger Woods status. Like Woods, Scheffler seems to always come home with the goods, and he now has that unbeatable game that scares people into doing the right thing. Just look at the final round on Sunday. While Scheffler played holes nine through 15 in 3 under, Collin Morikawa was two over, Ludvig Aberg was one under, and Max Homa was one over. Others made mistakes, as Scheffler played perfectly and didn’t come close to making an error. Sure, Scheffler’s 68 looks boring, but only one player shot better (Tom Kim shot 66). But now he has a milestone in the next few days: Scheffler and his wife Meredith will have their first child, and we will see how much that will change Scottie. Look at what happened to Jordan Spieth. When he came out on tour in 2013, we all thought he was the second coming of Tiger Woods. He won the John Deere in his first season and then, in 2015, won two majors, the Masters and the U.S. Open. He won his third major at the 2017 British Open for his 11th victory. In November 2018, he got married and had a son in 2021 and a daughter in 2023. Since getting married in 2018 and in the six years since he has won just twice, his game is no longer the fearful game it was in September of 2015 when he won the Tour Championship.

So we have to wonder if Scottie will suffer the same faith. The big difference is that Scottie married his high school sweetheart in 2020, and all nine of his PGA Tour victories have come since. Scottie’s wife, Meredith, has been an important element in Scheffler’s career, so we will see if having children won’t interfere with his future.

Looking at Tiger Woods getting married in 2004, it didn’t hurt his career. He won 40 of his 82 titles and eight majors before his October 2004 marriage. After that, and before he got caught for his infidelities in 2009, he won 31 times and six majors while married. If anything, injuries played more of a role in Tiger’s downfall. We will have to wait and see what the next decade will bring with Scottie Scheffler. Will winning still be more critical for him in the coming years, or will he realize that he enjoys family life more. Dustin Johnson is one person we see life after golf being more important. Since joining LIV Golf in 2022, Johnson has had more family time and vacations, and we can see he enjoys that over winning. So anything can happen.

What we learned at the Masters

How good is Scottie Scheffler, and how dominant is he? Since the start of the 2022 season, Scheffler has been the most dominant player in the last 60 years of golf. In 57 starts, he has won nine times, been runner-up seven times, and third seven times. So, of his 57 starts, he has been in the top three 40.3% of the time. Even more astonishing, he has been in the top ten 36 times or 63.2% of the time. Scottie has finished in the top 25 48 times or 84.2% of the time, so a bet on Scottie is as close to a sure thing as anything since Tiger’s prime. So, as we get deeper into the golf season, we have to expect even more incredible things out of Scottie if he can juggle the rigors of professional golf with having that first child. I believe that Scottie will be as fantastic in the coming months and continue producing more records and achievements.

On the other end of the spectrum:

How about the fall of Jon Rahm? After a brilliant 2023 in which he won four times, including at the Masters, Rahm is no longer the talk of golf. He was offered a large sum to join LIV golf; sources say it was $400 million. Rumors have gone around that he has told several players the money was too good to pass up and that he is on a one-year sabbatical from the PGA Tour with the uncertain future of LIV golf. He is deemed a savvy man in many circles for taking such a large amount of upfront money, but his game has been terrible. In five starts, his best finish was 3rd at Mayakoba, and since then, he hasn’t played a role in the final round. Despite his poor play, he has won $3.8 million in individual money, and his team, Legion XIII, has won $6 million.

Still, we can see that money will not make Rahm happy. He had a miserable week in the Masters, starting with ditching the Golf Writers of America, which was awarding Rahm Player of the Year honors at their annual dinner Wednesday night in Augusta. Protocol in the past is that the player shows up and immediately gets his award and then leaves, as one person said they don’t even have to turn off the engine on their cars. In all the dinners I have attended (about 15 in the last 20 years), I am trying to remember one person, including Tiger, not showing up. I know some LPGA winners (like Lilia Vu this year) couldn’t make it and do a thank you video. Rahm refused to do that and stiffed the GWAA.

Rahm also said that he felt uncomfortable with several players, pointing out that his relationship with Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa seemed to have changed. So, instead of enjoying the week, it was very uncomfortable for Rahm, who didn’t play well. His main problem is that he took 130 putts for the week, an unbelievable number when you consider in the 44 years that Augusta National has kept stats, only 22 players out of 2,271 that have played 72 holes have more than 130 putts. Even worse, Rahm had eight three putts for the week. So, it was a very uncomfortable week for him. It will be interesting to see if things get better or worse for Rahm in the remaining three majors. But in the few holes that I watched Rahm play, many of those “patrons” following Rahm didn’t have many good things to say about him and thought he was just greedy for what he had done. So we will see, Rahm is richer than any other sports figure. We are still determining the actual figures of Rahm’s contract, but it’s safe to say he will make $400 million. As for the length of the agreement, I have been told that it’s for one year, with LIV having an option for two more years. As for Shohei Ohtani’s contract, which is one of the most significant contracts in sports, he got $700 million for ten years, so yes, it’s safe to say that Rahm got the wealthiest sports contract of anyone.

The good, bad, and the ugly from the Masters

Talking about LIV players, of the 13 playing in the Masters, only two broke par, while Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith were two under par. Tyrrell Hatton shot even par to finish T-9th, while Patrick Reed was one over and finished T-12th.  Eight players made the cut; Brooks Koepka, who was runner-up last year, was T-45th and tied with Jon Rahm. Phil Mickelson, runner-up last year, finished T-43rd, and Joaquin Niemann, the best player on LIV in 2024, finished T-22nd.  Sergio Garcia, who has lost two playoffs in the five LIV events, shot 79 to miss the cut. Other LIV players who went home on Friday were Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, and Dustin Johnson, who shot 78-79 and were only the best three players. One of them was Adrian Meronk, who shot 78-80 and beat Emiliano Grillo for worst score by a shot.

If you weren’t a Ludvig Aberg fan, you must be now. Aberg joined ten other players (Craig Wood in 1934, Ralph Guldahl in 1937, Lloyd Mangrum in 1940, Tony Lema in 1963, Dan Pohl in 1982, Jason Day in 2011, Jonas Blixt in 2014, Jordan Spieth in 2014, SungJae Im in 2020, and Will Zalatoris in 2021). There are no two ways about it: Aberg is for real, and we expect him to win again very soon.

We saw in the fall that Collin Morikawa was making changes in his coaching staff and was starting to putt better, winning the Zozo Championship in October. But Morikawa was struggling again in the west coast swing, missing the Farmers and Palmer cut. But he found a new putter after the first round and putted well, finishing T-3rd.  I have to think that he is ready to play well in the coming months; I like the courses in the majors for him and think he will contend at Pinehurst. Look for Morikawa to get back into the winner’s circle in 2024.

The same is true for Max Homa. He usually plays well on the West Coast, but this year, in five starts, his best finish was T-13th at the Farmers. Homa played well at the Palmer and finished T-8th, but he had his best finish in a major and his second straight top ten after a T-10th at the British Open. So, in 18 majors, he has two top-ten finishes, and we have to think he will continue his excellent play.

Xander Schauffele continues to disappoint us in significant events. He finished 8th and in 27 career majors now has eight top-six finishes, but still, his best finish is T-2nd in the 2018 British Open. The good news is that it was Schauffele’s first top-nine finish since the 2021 U.S. Open. Still, people ask me if Schauffele could ever win a major. Xander reminds me a lot of Jason Day, a lot of talent but short on playing consistently. Do I think he will ever win a major? Since he plays well enough, he could back up into winning a major on the last day. We will see, but I am always suspicious of Schauffele in the majors.

Another player who doesn’t strive in majors is Patrick Cantlay, who finished T-22nd. I have no idea why, but in 28 majors, he has only finished in the top five once, finishing T-3rd in the 2019 PGA Championship. Cantlay is one of the better ball strikers on tour, and it’s more mental than physical. I have and will, in the future, avoid betting on Cantlay in the majors.

Boy, talk about being in a funk; Justin Thomas is still in a funk. We knew he wasn’t happy to fire one of the better caddies on tour when “Bones” got his walking papers two weeks ago. Thomas shot an opening round 72, and Thomas was even par after the 14th hole on Friday. But the shot went too far on the 15th hole in laying up, and he hit it into the water. From then on, it was disaster after disaster as he made the trip on 15 and 16, a bogey on 17, and another double on 18 to miss the cut by a shot. It’s hard to believe that since winning the 2022 PGA Championship, his best finish was T-37th in the 2022 U.S. Open. He has now missed four of five major cuts and is totally lost and out of control. It’s best not to place anything on him for the foreseeable future.

Another player in a terrible funk is Viktor Hovland, who shot a first-round 71 but shot 81 in the second round to miss another cut. We discussed this before, but after a great 2023, he decided to change his swing and is now totally lost. He showed at the Masters that he was not close and decided not to play at Hilton Head. This is more than a simple fix; I feel it will be a while for him to play better.

Jordan Spieth missed the cut again in what used to be his favorite tournament. But he has missed the cut in two of his last three Masters starts. Speith shot 79-74, and I think that Speith’s wrist, which has bothered him for close to a year, is the corporate. Spieth has missed three cuts in his last four starts, but in that streak, he was T-10th at the Valero Texas Open. I wonder if he will play better this week at the Heritage; in seven starts, he has never missed the cut, won it in 2022, and lost a playoff last year. He will play better this week.

Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage:

• This will be the 56th edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC nine years ago. It was a long haul with many anxious moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.
• Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989, the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.
• The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969, even though it was a “turkey” of an event. Initially, it would be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000. However, Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people, including Charles Fraser, who owned the new course Harbour Town, and suggested that he should apply for PGA Tour sanction instead of a small tournament. They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament on Thanksgiving weekend. Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course, played and brought some friends, including Arnold Palmer, who went out and won the first Heritage Classic. Thanks to Palmer winning, they say it put the tournament on the map and helped create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.
• The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years. It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March. Between 1983 and 2019, it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for 2012, when it was two weeks after the Masters. Because of COVID-19, it was played in June, but for all the years after, it’s returned to its usual place after the Masters.
• This year, it’s a designated event for a second year in a row, meaning the purse went from $8 million to $20 million in 2023 and $20 million this year, a drastic climb. Many will question if it’s fair to ask players to attend a big event the week before or after a major. The WGC-Bridgestone was always played before the PGA Championship and worked, but times are changing, and some may not want to play before or after a major. Still, they have a good field and don’t see any players not showing up.

Course information:

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Sea Pines Resort, Hilton Head Island, S.C.
• 7,191 yards     Par 36-35–71
• Harbour Town Golf Links has a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating from the back tees of 147. The tees, fairway, and rough are Celebration Bermuda Grass, and the greens are Poa Annua. The course is a resort course and can be played by the public. Last year, Harbour Town was the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour, with a 70.22 average.
• The course was designed and built by Pete Dye in 1969. Jack Nicklaus started in golf course architecture by assisting Dye in designing and building Harbour Town.   The average green size at Harbour Town is 4,500 square feet, which means it has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. The course has 145 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes.
• Over the years, the course has changed very little. In 2011, seven new teeing grounds were put in with an added yardage of 127 yards for the 2012 event, taking the course over the 7,000 mark to 7,099. The holes that yardage was added to were the 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16 & 18. In most cases, players didn’t use a driver, but holes like 16 with an additional 36 yards will force players to hit a driver. The same is true with 18, 20 yards added to a hole that will play to 472 yards.
• Some of the bunkers were also changed so that they are more in play, and the area around the second green got some work. Also, some trees that played havoc on those who hit them just off some of the fairways were removed, improving the sightlines.
• In the summer of 2015, every blade of grass on the layout—tees, greens, rough, and practice facility—had been replaced. The irrigation system was also replaced with the latest technology, so it may take the players a bit to get the course’s feel and to get to know all of the rolls and breaks on the greens.
• Lastly, in 2016, Hurricane Matthew hit Hilton Head Island, and despite the power, other than debris and loss of trees, there was no long-range damage. We saw what mother nature could do to a golf course when we saw how heavy rains washed away the Greenbrier course, and they couldn’t play the Greenbrier Classic. The same thing happened in Houston; rain from a hurricane put the Golf Club of Houston underwater, but it was back to normal when the Houston Open was played. Hilton Head, they were lucky. Even today, players will notice a lack of trees eight years later, especially on holes near the bay like 16, 17, and 18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in Harbour Town.

This is based on Harbour Town’s most important stats, data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and data from all the field players with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
The field’s scoring average at Harbour Town last year was 70.22, making it the 29th hardest course of the year.

Here is a look at the scoring average at Harbour Town for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 70.74, was the 19th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 70.33, the year’s T-26th hardest of the 51 courses.
*2020 – Average was 69.14, the 37th hardest of the 41 courses that year. It’s the lowest-scoring average for Harbour Town since records were kept in 1997. The reason was that the tournament was put back in June, and conditions were much different.
*2019 – Average was 71.17, was 11th hardest of 49 courses that year. It was a half a shot easier than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. Weather is always a factor. Winds off the Atlantic make the course hard like it was in 2019; each day had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday, they had gusts up to 40 mph, and on Saturday, 30 mph.
After three days of perfect weather at the Masters.  After three days of perfect weather at the Masters, the news is good and evil. The good news is that after playing at Augusta on Sunday with temperatures in the low 80s, temperatures will range from 80 on Thursday and go down each day, 81 on Friday, 79 on Saturday, and 75 on Sunday. But the bad news is cloudy skies on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with showers all day on Sunday. So, for a second straight week, the weather will become the narrative for the week, but winds will be manageable between 8 and 10 mph daily at the Heritage.

Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners were top-notch when Webb Simpson won it in 2020, Stewart Cink in 2021, Jordan Spieth in 2022, and Matt Fitzpatrick won it last year. In 2019, C.T. Pan won, and since the victory, he has only finished in the top three five times, a T-3rd at the Charles Schwab, a month after winning at Hilton Head. Pan also finished T-3rd at the 2021 Honda Classic. Pan was 4th at the 2023 Byron Nelson, T-3rd at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, and was T-3rd at the Mexico Open last month.
2018, Satoshi Kodaira won and has also struggled in 110 PGA Tour events. He has not finished in the top ten, with a best finish of T-11th in the 2021 Wells Fargo. For 2022, his best finish is T-12th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and he is the only top-14 in the season. In 2023, Kodaira had one top-25 finish, a T-16th at the Zozo Championship. In 2024, Kodaira played once, missing the cut in Puerto Rico.
The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan. Since winning, he has played in 114 events and has only had eight top-25 finishes, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018, he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January 2019, he had surgery, which took a year to get better. Since coming back, I have played a limited schedule and struggled. In 2023, Bryan played in 19 events, with a 6th at Puerto Rico as his only top-20 finish, along with missing eleven cuts. He is just about gone from the PGA Tour, but he played once this year, missing the cut at Puerto Rico.

So, winning the RBC Heritage was not a launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour in the late 90s. Not only have Pan, Kodaira, and Bryan yet to return to the winner’s circle, but it was the last time that 2015 champion Jim Furyk won on the PGA Tour. The same happened with 2020 winner Webb Simpson and 2021 champion Stewart Cink. One thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions, the course tends to get an inexperienced winner, as we have seen. Since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the schedule has been loaded with significant events week in and week out. So, by the time the Heritage rolls around, most marquee players are taking the week and month off. But like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am that got terrible fields that changed with it being a “designated” event, that will happen to the Heritage, which will get its best field ever. So, for the second event in a row, a “designated event,” the field is excellent for this week as most of the marquee players are playing.

So, what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America. It’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost to overpowering. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2023, the course averaged 278.6 yards, meaning it was the 2nd shortest of all the courses on Tour (the shortest is Pebble Beach). Since it’s so low (The highest on Tour last year was Plantation Course at Kapalua, 307.3 yards), players not only throttle it down on many holes, they lay up with three woods or long irons.

So, our first important stat is driving accuracy. You have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Driving is essential when looking at Harbour Town’s stats from last year. The course ranked 2nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance (all holes) and 45th in driving accuracy (out of 58 courses). Winner Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 12th in driving distance (all holes) and T-56th (34 of 54) in accuracy.

Here is a look at the driving average at the RBC Heritage for the last few years:
*2022 – Harbour Town ranked 6th in driving distance (all holes) and 35th in driving accuracy.
Winner Jordan Spieth was 2nd in driving distance (all holes) and T-31st (34 of 54) in accuracy.
*2021 – Harbour Town ranked 4th in driving distance and 29th in driving accuracy.
Winner Stewart Cink was 5th in driving distance (all holes) and T-57th (31 of 54) in accuracy.
*2020 – Harbour Town ranked 2nd in driving distance and 33rd in driving accuracy.
Winner Webb Simpson was T-33rd in driving distance (all holes) and T-33rd (38 of 54) in accuracy.
*2019 – Harbour Town ranked 3rd in driving distance and 21st in driving accuracy.
Winner C.T. Pan was T-50th in driving distance (all holes) and T-59th (29 of 54) in accuracy.
The year before, Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.
So, driving it far is not as important as hitting it straight.

For our next categories, one thing is evident in looking at the stats for Harbour Town: the course caters to those who hit lots of greens, so we are using Greens In Regulation. Last year, it ranked 17th as 63.14% of the players hit the greens. Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, hit 48 of 72 greens and ranked T-23rd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the RBC Heritage for the last few years:
*2022 – For Harbour Town, Greens in Regulation was 60.12% and was the 10th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner Jordan Spieth hit 50 of 72 greens (69.44%) and ranked T-9th.
*2021 – For Harbour Town, Greens in Regulation was 62.12% and was the 19th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner Stewart Cink hit 56 of 72 greens ( 73.61%) and ranked T-12th.
*2020 – For Harbour Town, Greens in Regulation was 65.82% and was the 17th hardest of the 41 courses that year
Winner Webb Simpson hit 53 of 72 greens (73.61%) and ranked T-1st.
*2019 – For Harbour Town, Greens in Regulation was 57.67% and was the 6th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner C.T. Pan hit 42 of 72 greens (58.33%) and ranked T-37th.
In 2018, it ranked 6th on Tour.
2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th,
In 2016, it ranked 2nd on the Tour and has been in the top 10 in seven of the last 12 years. In the previous 27 years, 14 champions ranked in the top ten, with six leading the category.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

The next important category is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens. At 4,500 square feet, they are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since it’s tough to hit the greens.
So, our third category is scrambling, and you can see why. Since the course is a shot-maker delight, you can see that if you miss a lot of greens, you better get it up and down to play well. Last year, Harbour Town ranked 51st in scrambling out of 58 courses. It shows that players can get it up and down, so keeping up with the field to scramble is essential. Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, was ranked t-4th, getting it up and down in 20 of the 24 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of the RBC Heritage winners over the last few years:
*2022 – Harbour Town finished 43rd in scrambling of the 50 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 64.78% of the time
Winner Jordan Spieth was ranked 6th, getting it up and down in 18 of the 22 greens he missed.
*2021 – Harbour Town finished 44th in scrambling of the 51 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 63.80% of the time
Winner Stewart Cink was ranked T-50th, getting it up and down in 13 of the 16 greens he missed.
*2020 – Harbour Town finished 40th in scrambling of the 41 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 67.14% of the time
Winner Webb Simpson was ranked T-27th, getting it up and down in 14 of the 19 greens he missed.
*2020 – Harbour Town finished 42nd in scrambling of the 49 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 62.99% of the time
*2019 – Winner C.T. Pan was ranked T-16th. He got it up and down on 22 of the 30 greens he missed.
2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was primarily t-13th because he hit a lot of greens.
So, the winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

Last, we pick a stat rarely used: Strokes Gained Putting. That’s because at Hilton Head, putting well doesn’t mean much because of the small size of the greens, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8-footers. The winners of the Heritage are notoriously good putters. Last year, Harbour Town ranked 53rd in Putting average, 53rd in One-Putt Percentage, 58th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 33rd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.55% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, ranked 20th in Putting average, T-8th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 5th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 66 out of 70 putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 20th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 2.732 shots for the week.

Here is a look at the putting stats of Harbour Town and RBC Heritage winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Harbour Town ranked 37th in Putting average, 50th in One-Putt Percentage, T-43rd in 3-putt Avoidance, and 16th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.77% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Jordan Spieth, who is one of the best putters in golf, ranked 40th in Putting average, T-43rd in One-Putt Percentage, T-65th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-17th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 63 out of 73 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 60th in Strokes Gained Putting, as he lost a whooping -2.545 shots for the week.
*2021 – Harbour Town ranked T-47th in Putting average, 48th in One-Putt Percentage, 48th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 25th in Putting Inside ten feet as 88.16% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Stewart Cink ranked T-7th in Putting average, T-29th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 19th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 67 out of 74 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots.
*2020 – Harbour Town ranked 38th in Putting average, 39th in One-Putt Percentage, 41st in three-putt Avoidance, and 22nd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.57% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Webb Simpson ranked 3rd in Putting average, T-15th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 44th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 57 out of 64 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 6.605 shots for the week.
*2019 – Harbour Town ranked T-38th in Putting average, 49th in One-Putt Percentage, 47th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 15th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.50% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner C.T. Pan ranked 2nd in Putting average, T-3rd in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and 11th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 64 out of 69 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 5th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 6.271 shots for the week.

As you can see, the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, remember that most of them are ranked at the bottom of driving distance and high in driving accuracy. Think of it: Most of the champions do not hit it long, something you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So, the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, so keeping it in the fairway is very important.

*Greens in Regulation: This stat is a great barometer of how well players manage their games around Harbour Town. Every year, the players who hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So, which course is tough to get it up and down on holes? Players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained Putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter? Since Harbour Town’s greens are so small, you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts, but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 with 66 of the 69 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to see all the stats for the RBC Heritage

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Masters, a total of 71 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,300
• Rory McIlroy – $11,200
• Xander Schauffele – $10,800
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,400
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
• Max Homa – $9,700
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,600
• Jordan Spieth – $9,400
• Wyndham Clark – $9,200
• Will Zalatoris – $9,000

This is an easy event to judge, looking for those that hit it straight, greens, and putts well. So, right off the bat, how many people will be taking Scottie Scheffler at $13,300? For weeks, I have preached that no matter how much Scheffler is, take him. It’s well worth it. But this week, I won’t touch him, yes, for lots of reasons. First, he won the Masters, flew back home to Dallas, and celebrated all day Sunday and Monday. Then he flew back to Hilton Head, but his wife is now closer to having their first child. There is too much happening for Scheffler; be careful that he doesn’t withdraw at the last minute, and that could happen. So yes, his price is too high, and he will not play well this week. I also have to say no to Rory McIlroy at $11,200. I don’t think the course suits his game, and I still don’t think he is playing well right now. Xander Schauffele at $10,800 is a different story; the course is perfect for him; he was 4th last year, and I sense he could win this year. Same with Ludvig Aberg at $10,400, he is playing Hilton Head for the first time, and the course suits him and is playing great. Patrick Cantlay at $10,200, is also a good pick, he has played well on this course with five top tens in six starts. He was 3rd last year and 2nd the year before; he plays the course the best of anyone else in the field. Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is worth considering; his putting was good at Augusta, and it could carry over to this year. The same goes for Tommy Fleetwood at $9,800; he played well at the Masters and has done well the last couple of years at Hilton Head. I like Max Homa at $9,700, even though he has yet to play well at Hilton Head in two starts. He just showed so much at Augusta that you must feel it carries over to this week, I like him a lot. Jordan Spieth at $9,400, is one of them.  Yes, he has played terribly of late, rumors of his wrist not being right, but still, he plays great at Harbour Town, and that carries a lot of mojo.  Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,600, is the defending champion and likes the course a lot.  Still there are other players better than him. Wyndham Clark at $9,200 and worth thinking about, but he didn’t play well at the Masters and hasn’t played well at Hilton Head, so the course may determine why we don’t take him. Will Zalatoris at $9,000, I can go in either direction; of course, it may not be perfect for him, but he is playing well.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament. Picking six players who play 72 holes is vital to playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help. It’s a look going back to the 2010 Heritage on who has made the most cuts. Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful. To get on this list, you have to make at least three Heritage starts:

Jordan Spieth made 7 cuts in 7 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,400.

Wyndham Clark made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 9,200.

Justin Thomas made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 8,400.

Collin Morikawa made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 10,000.

Xander Schauffele made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%. His DraftKings cost is 10,800.

Brian Harman made 10 cuts in 12 starts for a 83.3%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.

Shane Lowry made 5 cuts in 6 starts for an 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 8,500.

Patrick Cantlay made 5 cuts in 6 starts for an 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 10,200.

Denny McCarthy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for an 80.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,800.

Sepp Straka made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75.0%. His DraftKings cost is 7,200.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Sahith Theegala at $8,900 is not a good choice, but he played well last year and feels he will continue to play well in this course. Another toss’m pick with Cameron Young at $8,700. He played well at Hilton Head in 2022 but not last year. But like that, he was 2nd at Valspar and T-9th at the Masters; he is overdue. Another long overdue is Shane Lowry at $8,500; yes, he is due and can do it on this course. You can save some cash by not betting on Justin Thomas at $8,400. He is so lost right now. I don’t see him getting it back this week on a course he has struggled on. Brian Harman at $7,800 is a good choice, even though he shot 81 at Augusta. This course suits him better than Augusta, so I hope he has a good week.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Taylor Moore at $7,400, is a great pick, considering he has not missed a cut this year in ten starts and finished T-11th at Hilton Head last year. Sungjae Im at $7,300, is a good choice; he has played well the previous three years at Hilton Head. Matthieu Pavon at $7,000, could be good in his debut at Hilton Head. In his last two starts, he was T-12th at the Masters and 5th in Singapore. Emiliano Grillo at $6,900, is a good choice; he has played well at Hilton Head and played well in 2024. Erik Van Rooyen at $6,700, has played well of late and was T-10th at Hilton Head in 2022.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Heritage:

Key stat for the winner:

• Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America. It’s a different experience in which ball placement is more important than power. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue, so look for a precision player to win. So, what will it take to win this week’s Heritage Classic?
• What makes the course challenging is the greens. At 4,500 square feet, they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Over the last 17 years, they have been difficult to hit. Of all the tournaments, the U.S. Open is the only one that ranks harder to hit than the greens of Hilton Head.
• Over the years, putting and hitting greens have been vital to winning at Harbour Town. If you look at the list of Heritage champions, all of them are good putters, especially from the ten to twenty feet range.
• With greens as small as those, Hilton Head scrambling is essential in winning. Remember this: Harbour Town is a course on which you must scramble well. Last year, seven courses were more challenging to get up and down. However, in 2020, only one course scrambled better than Harbour Town, as the field got up and down 67.14% of the time. Look at the recent winners to see how important this stat is. Last year’s winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, ranked T-4th in getting it up and down. In 2023, Jordan Spieth ranked 6th in getting it up and down. In 2021, Stewart Cink ranked T-4th, getting it up and down 13 of 16 greens missed. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked T-27th, getting it up and down 14 of 19 times. In 2019, C.T. Pan missed 30 greens but got up and down on 22 of them in his winning effort. The year before, Satoshi Kodaira missed 23 greens but got it up and down 17 times and was T-13th in scrambling. In 2017, Wesley Bryan missed 32 greens but got it up and down 27 times to lead the field in scrambling. 2016 Branden Grace was 22 of 28 greens missed and 3rd in scrambling. In 2015, Jim Furyk led the stat, getting 21 of the 22 greens he missed up and down, which is the best in championship history. The year before, Matt Kuchar was 12th in that stat on the PGA Tour in 2014. The 2013 winner, Graeme McDowell, led the scrambling list at Harbour Town, getting it up and down 79.2% of the time. In 2012, Carl Pettersson was 21st, and Brandt Snedeker did an excellent job in 20th. But in the years before, it was even better, as in 2010, Jim Furyk was 4th in this category, getting it up and down 23 of 28 times. 2009 Brian Gay was first in this category, getting it up and down 22 of 24 tries. In 2007 Boo Weekley only took 97 putts and won the category, Aaron Baddeley was 7th in his win in 2006, Davis Love III was 3rd in his 2003 victory, Justin Leonard was 7th in his 2002 win, Jose Coceres was 5th in 2001, and Nick Price was 3rd in 1997.
• Heritage always seems to have dramatic finishes. In the last 25 Heritage’s, ten have had playoffs, seven have had a one-shot margin of victory, while the other was two, four, and five. Last year, Matt Fitzpatrick beat Jordan Spieth in a playoff, while in 2022, Spieth beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. In 2021, Stewart Cink won by four shots. In 2020, Webb Simpson beat Abraham Ancer by a shot. In 2019, C.T. Pan won by a shot over Matt Kuchar. In 2018, Satoshi Kodaira beat SiWoo Kim in a playoff. In 2017, Wesley Bryan beat Luke Donald by a shot, while the year before, Branden Grace was the exception to the rule, beating Luke Donald and Russell Knox by two shots. The previous year, Jim Furyk beat Kevin Kisner in a playoff, while in 2014, Matt Kuchar defeated Luke Donald by a shot, thanks to a Kuchar birdie on the 72nd hole. In 2013, Graeme McDowell won a playoff with Webb Simpson, while in 2012, Carl Pettersson had an easy time winning by five. In 2011, Snedeker went three extra holes before beating Luke Donald. It can’t get any more exciting than in 2007 when Boo Weekley beat Ernie Els by a shot, but he chipped in on 17 and 18 for the win. In 2010 Jim Furyk beat Brian Davis in a playoff. So things will be close this week..
• Like last week, when some weather came into Augusta on Thursday but was good the last three days, the weather will be reversed this week. The first two days will be good, but there will be thunderstorms and bad weather on Saturday and Sunday.