BlogThe CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson field has about the same marquee players as last year, but I wonder if Craig Ranch is hurting them. Yes, the event didn’t catch a break with the timing of Scottie Scheffler’s kid being born; Scottie, being from the Dallas area, was a regular and won’t play this year. They also didn’t get a break when Will Zalatoris had to withdraw. PGA Tour officials said it was precautionary reasons related to his back. Zalatoris had a few good weeks, finishing T-2nd at the Genesis and T-4th at the Palmer. He was also T-9th at the Masters, so we have to watch to see if this could affect him in the future.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson had a unique niche on the PGA Tour. Since 1968, it has been the most financially successful charity event on the PGA Tour, raising $185 million for its charity, the Salesmanship Club. Between 1983 and 2017, it was played at TPC Las Colinas, a course that many PGA Tour players may not have loved but was an excellent spot for those who attended the tournament. For the fans, they loved all of the locations where they could watch golf in comfort, either under shady trees or in stands around the course. They also loved the big party pavilion off the 2nd hole, So for years, the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson was the in-place for fans to watch golf. The course also had excellent infrastructure, with a Four Seasons hotel behind the 18th Green and the Las Colinas Sports Club. These tended to erase the fact that the course wasn’t the gem-like Colonial Golf Club, 40 miles down the road in Ft. Worth, and the home to the Charles Schwab Challenge was.

Between 1990 and 2006, the year Byron Nelson passed away, this event always attracted a great field with many marquee names. That’s because Byron Nelson spent a lot of time recruiting players, always being a part of the tournament and sitting behind the 18th green to thank all the players for coming. So, even though players didn’t like the course, they felt that they owed Byron Nelson their support each year. Hey, even Tiger Woods showed up year after year. But in 2007, after Byron Nelson passed away, that all changed. Players started skipping the Nelson, and even though the lack of marquee names didn’t affect the bottom line of the tournament, fans still sold the week out, and the course just became a dirty secret for organizers.

So, for years, the Salesmanship Club was always looking for a better facility, and the opportunity came knocking on their door when a new course was built in Dallas, Trinity Forest. For years, they watched the development of this course and finally worked out a deal to move the Byron Nelson to the new home in 2018. The last year that the Nelson was played at TPC Las Colinas, they raised $6.8 million for charities. So when they moved, they expected to roll along and not only be loved by those who attended the tournament, but they were hoping that players would love the course and, in future years, gain more marquee names.

That never happened.

Despite the course being better than TPC Las Colinas, the tournament got a lousy slot in the schedule, and players avoided it. On top of that, poor weather and the lack of a party atmosphere for those who attended the tournament created lower attendance. Trinity Forest may have been a good course, but it had very few trees to shade the fans from the 95+ days in the first year. So this event, which is a money tree for its charities, struggled. 2018, it netted $4.8 million, then $3 million in 2019. So tournament officials gave up on Trinity Forest when COVID-19 canceled the Byron Nelson in 2020. They first looked into returning to TPC Las Colinas, but they lost the tournament’s parking. So they decided on a new course, TPC Craig Ranch, which had held two Korn Ferry Tour events and had some excellent infrastructure and many shady trees. Not only did the very private club want to keep the event, but the town of McKinney, Texas, has stepped up to help this tournament succeed. The first year was ok as more people attended even though officials put limits due to COVID-19 protocols. But its charity profit went up as $5.5 million was raised in 2021 and $7.5 million in 2022 and ’23. With no limitations to the gallery, the event hopes for a more extensive take on its charity.

Things you need to know about the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson Classic:

This will be the 70th edition of the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson Classic, formerly called the Dallas Open. The TPC at Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas was the primary site of the tournament between 1983 and 2017 when it moved to Trinity Forest Club. After two unsuccessful years and COVID-19 canceling the 2000 event, the tournament moved to TPC Craig Ranch.

Byron Nelson won the inaugural Dallas Open in 1944 by 12 strokes. Three annual tournaments were staged, with Nelson winning the first, Snead winning the next, and Hogan winning in 1946. After that, the city needed help finding a sponsor for the tournament, and after a lapse of 10 years, James Ling sponsored the event beginning in 1956. The tournament has been played every year since then except for 1963 when the PGA Championship was played in Dallas, and 1965 when the tournament was switched from September to the spring. In 1967, the Salesmanship club took over sponsorship, and the following year, the tournament was renamed after Byron Nelson, who was born just outside of Dallas and had a 630-acre ranch in Roanoke, Texas. The tournament is the 9th oldest active event on the PGA Tour and, along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is the only event named after former players.

This is another drastic change for fans of this event; they enjoyed everything about TPC Four Seasons but wanted something other than Trinity Forest. So, with the shift to TPC Craig Ranch, tournament organizers ensure that TPC Craig Ranch will be even bigger and better for the fans and their charities. This is the first year the CJ Cup group will sponsor the event. They signed a ten-year deal with the tour, hoping to break into the US market. For those who don’t know, the CJ Group is a South Korea-based holding group with a presence in food, retail, logistics, media, and biotechnology. Many don’t remember, but the CJ Group has sponsored PGA Tour tournaments for six years. First, it is in South Korea, Las Vegas, and South Carolina. They will be part of this Dallas event for the next decade.

Course information:

• TPC Craig Ranch
• McKinney, Texas
• 7,414 yards     Par 36-35–72

This is the fourth year of the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson being changed to its new home, TPC Craig Ranch. Tom Weiskopf designed the course, which opened in 2004. In the years of planning and constructing it, the PGA Tour gave input on what the course needed to hold a tournament. Frankly, the original owners wanted to have a regular PGA Tour on it. The property is massive and large enough to handle big crowds. Each hole is framed with many trees down the side of it and looks very mature despite being under 20 years old. The Rowlett Creek runs through the property, which creates more challenging shots. The greens are an average size of 6,800 feet and are fair, with slight undulation. The greens are bent, which will give players a more appealing feel. 83 bunkers dot the course, and for the players, if the weather is good, they can have their way with this course. Before the event’s first year in 2021, in the weeks before the tournament, the growing season suffered from a hard freeze, which stopped the rough growth and helped make the course a layup. So, in looking at the stats, 70.55% of the greens were hit by the field, as it ranked 39th in most greens hit. One of the reasons that happened was the lack of rough and that won’t be the case this year. In 2021 and ’22, the course played to a par 72. But in 2023, they changed the 12th hole from a par 5 to a par 4.

So now the course will play to a par 71 and, at 7,414, will be classified as a “Bombers Delight.”  So we are seeing a lot of long hitters on the field, and they think this course will be perfect for their game. The secret to TPC Craig Ranch will still be hitting fairways and greens. In looking at the stats for those last year, seven of the top 13 players were in the top 15 in greens hit. Another vital statistic is that those who scramble well and find a way to get it up and down on greens missed. 66.70% of the field got it up and down on greens missed as only one course saw more ups and downs, the Seaside course at Sea Island. Another reason long hitters have an advantage is that 2,021 birdies were made last year at TPC Craig Ranch; only two other courses on the PGA Tour, Detroit Golf Club and El Cardonal, saw more. So this translates to those that are the best in Par Breakers doing well; last year, 24.03% of the course had eagles and birdies made on the course, and only ten other courses had a higher average.

The one thing that many agree on is that the winner will have to use a lot of imagination to get around the course. The course is a par 71 and will play at 7,414, and Weiskopf has added a gambling aspect to the design. All three par 5s are accessible in two, giving players a chance for eagles as last year, the par 5s played to a 4.48 average, and five courses saw easier par 5s. Last year’s champion, Jason Day, didn’t take advantage of it playing the par 5s in nine under, but players took advantage of it in previous years when there were 4 pars fives. In 2022, the top two in the standings took advantage of this; winner K.H. Lee was 16 under, while runner-up Jordan Spieth was 11 under. In 2021, winner K.H. Lee was 11 under, and runner-up Sam Burns played them in 15 under. Along with the par 5s, three par 4s, #3, #6, and #14, could lead to birdies or even eagles. If the PGA Tour moves up the tees on holes 6 & 14, they could be drivable, but the 14th hole with water down the left side could lead to double bogeys or more. You can see why we are calling this a bomber’s delight; there could be some great excitement with this course.

One significant change to the course will be on the par 3 17th. The Salesmanship Club has put in stands all around the par 3, giving it a touch of the 16th hole at WM Phoenix Open. They call it the “Ranch 17,” and from the pictures I have seen, the hole will be very intimate. They are saying they can have 6,000 spectators, and the stands are so close to the play that it will be interesting to see the buzz it creates. Still, it would help if you had marquee names, which is still lacking in this event, which is not only two weeks before a major but a week before a designated event, which means most of the marquee players are taking this week off.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in TPC Craig Ranch.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Craig Ranch, data from last year’s Byron Nelson, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024.
Last year was the third year that TPC Craig Ranch was used. We will go more into detail in our preview of the event and course, but TPC Craig Ranch is not one of the memorable courses on the PGA Tour. Players aren’t going out of their way to play on it, and frankly, come next Monday, the Tour will head east to a much better course, Quail Hollow. The real secret to this event is the money the Salesmanship Club has raised for local charities.

As for TPC Craig Ranch, it’s not that great of a course, but it’s not bad, just not memorable. It was in the right place at the right time. For years, it was played at TPC Las Colinas, another average course with the infrastructure to hold a big golf tournament. For years, the Salesmanship Club wanted to move it to a better course, and in 2018, they moved to their new digs at Trinity Forest. The course was better, but players weren’t raving over it and making things worse. Fans who loved Las Colinas didn’t love Trinity Forest. So, after two years at Trinity Forest, tournament organizers started looking for another home, and TPC Craig Ranch had the room for infrastructure. With some changes to the course, it held its first Byron Nelson in 2021. It’s a course most players like because they can produce a low score on it. Last year, the par 71 course played to a 68.91 average, making it the 50th hardest course on Tour. Eight other courses on Tour was easier, but of the 8, six were used in events that utilize multiple courses. The only two easier courses were El Cardonal at Diamante for the World Wide Technology and the Plantation Course, which held the season-opening Sentry. Last year’s winner, Jason Day, was 23 under par, making 26 birdies and just three bogeys. TPC Craig Ranch allowed 2021 birdies to be made on it. Last year, only two courses on Tour Detroit Golf Club and El Cardonal at Diamante saw more birdies made. Let’s face up to it: making birdies is one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Craig Ranch. Of the 18 holes on the course, ten played under par, while six were a notch over par. Only two holes played tough; the par 4, 12th was 4.158, and the par 4, 16th was the hardest hole on the course at a 4.202 scoring average. So those who make lots of birdies and are high in par breakers will do well on the course.
So, the stats make the point that this is a bomber’s course.

Here is a look at the scoring average at TPC Craig Ranch for the other two years that held the event:
*2022 – Average was 69.22, was the 47th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 69.57, it was the 47th hardest of the 51 courses that year

In our four categories, we have picked four that are needed to win.
First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, which considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in examining the stats for TPC Craig Ranch. The course ranked T-33rd in Driving Distance and 34th in Driving Accuracy. In Greens hit, it ranked T-36th, so we can see that you better be good in all of these stats to have any chance at winning.
Last year, tournament winner Jason Day ranked 24th in driving distance, averaging 301.7 yards per all drives. He was T-34th in Fairways, hitting 36 of 54, and T-10th in greens, hitting 56 of the 72. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Day was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 12th.

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the Byron Nelson winners in the last two years played at TPC Craig Ranch:
*2022 – The course ranked T-27th in driving distance with an average drive of 297.7 yards (out of 50 courses), 24th in driving accuracy, and 34th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner K.H Lee was 52nd in driving distance, averaging 297.6 yards per drive (all holes), T-22nd in accuracy, hitting 37 of 54 fairways, and T-18th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 55 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
*2021 – The course ranked 16th in driving distance with an average drive of 288.5 yards (out of 51 courses), 35th in driving accuracy, and 39th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner K.H. Lee (who won it twice in a row) ranked T-37th in driving distance, averaging 289.0 yards per drive, T-41st in accuracy, hitting 37 of 54 fairways, and T-5th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 58 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our second category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit, so TPC Craig Ranch ranked T-36th last year on Tour with 68.75% of the greens hit. This shows that a lot of players hit the greens. The winner, Day, hit 56 of 72 greens last year for 77.78%, ranking T-10th.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Byron Nelson winners in the last two years played at TPC Craig Ranch
*2022 – Greens in Regulation was 69.95%, and was the 34th hardest of the 50 courses that year
Winner K.H. Lee hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-18th.
*2021 – Greens in Regulation was 70.56% and was the 39th hardest of the 51 courses that year
Winner K.H. Lee hit 58 of 72 greens (80.56%) and ranked T-5th.

Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, an integral part of the game. Last year, the putting average at TPC Craig Ranch was 1.728, and the course ranked 50th. It averaged 28.39 putts per round, ranking it 47th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 38th. As for last year’s winner Jason Day, he took 109 putts and was ranked T-13th. In Putting inside ten feet, he was T-13th, making 64 of 68 putts in that distance, and Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 28th.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the TPC Craig Ranch and the winners in the last two years:
*2022 – TPC Craig Ranch ranked 42nd in Putting average, 39th in One-Putt Percentage, 28th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 20th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.94% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner K.H. Lee ranked 13th in Putting average, T-23rd in One-Putt Percentage, T-40th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-41st in Putting Inside ten feet, making 64 out of 72 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 13th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 3.894 shots.
*2021—Craig Ranch ranked 45th in Putting average, 34th in One-Putt Percentage, T-38th in three-putt Avoidance, and 22nd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 87.99% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner K.H. Lee ranked T2nd in Putting average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in three-putt Avoidance, and 8th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 63 out of 67 of the putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 9th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.632 shots.

The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 2021 birdies were made on the course, and only two courses on Tour saw more birdies made. Frankly, this course is for those who make lots of birdies. Last year’s winner, Jason Day, made 26. In 2022, K.H. Lee made two eagles and 25 birdies; the year before, he made 28 birdies in his win. So we can see that you better make a lot of eagles and birdies. So it was no surprise that Day last year was 1st in Par Breakers, Lee was T-6th in 2022, and 2nd in 2021, so it’s easy to say that Par Breakers is probably the most crucial stat in finding a winner this year. So, look at the Par Breakers list for this year.  Those in the top ten that are playing this week are #6 Tom Hoge, #7 Byeong Hun An, #8 Jordan Spieth, and #13 Thomas Detry.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent of putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 126 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link back to all of the stats for players for 2024

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 Zurich, a total of 74 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jordan Spieth – $10,900
• Jason Day – $10,400
• Si Woo Kim – $9,800
• SungJae Im – $9,700
• Adam Scott – $9,600
• Alex Noren – $9,500
• Min Woo Lee – $9,400
• Byeong Hun An – $9,300
• Stephan Jaeger – $9,200
• Tom Hoge – $9,100
• Tom Kim – $9,000

First of all, I wouldn’t say I like many of the prices of our top players. Jordan Spieth at $10,900 is a big no; he has been suffering from a bum wrist and almost didn’t play after the first round at the Heritage. So I would not touch Spieth at all, even though of those who have played TPC Craig Ranch, he has a good record, finishing 2nd in 2022 and T-9th in 2021. Also, if you look at some of the names on the list, other than Si Woo Kim and Alex Noren, these players could have done better over the last ten weeks. So this is an event that you should be careful with. The key to winning is to make sure you have six guys who will make the cut and play 72 holes. Jason Day at $10,400 is another to move cautiously on. Yes, he won last year and has won this event twice, but he has yet to play well since the Genesis. Yes, he is making cuts, but I don’t see him finishing in the top five, which you would need to take a person at the price he is. Si Woo Kim at $9,800, is a good choice; he is good off the tee and hits lots of greens. Putting is questionable, but he makes many birdies, so yes, it’s a good choice. SungJae Im at $9,700, is a no, he hasn’t played at TPC Craig Ranch, and has yet to play well since finishing T-5th at the Sentry. Adam Scott at $9,600, does make cuts, but I think he struggles to finish in the top ten. He may have four top tens in 2024, but only one on the PGA Tour, T-8th at the Phoenix Open. Alex Noren at $9,500, has played well at TPC Craig Ranch and played ok during the year. Again, is he a person to pick? Yes, but his cost is high. Min Woo Lee at $9,400 is a no for me; he was second at Cognizant but hasn’t done anything else and has not played great at Craig Ranch, so forget about him. Byeong Hun An at $9,300 is high. Yes, he was T-14th last year but hasn’t played well since the Palmer, so he is a pass for me. Stephan Jaeger at $9,200 is possible; he was T-11th last year and T-38th in 2022. He has played well in 2024, but I like how he plays on bomber courses, including his win at the Houston Open. So, he is high on my list. Tom Hoge at $9,100 is also a possibility. He has played well in 2024, but his price is high for just making cuts. Tom Kim at $9,000 is also a possibility, but again, he hasn’t played that great in 2024 and is not a person who plays well on bomber courses.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?

Not much in the way of choices; I like Keith Mitchell at $8,800 because he has been steady on TPC Craig Ranch and played well in 2024. I also appreciate his stats, including par breakers; he could be a better putter, but he can hold his own on a bombers course. I like Thomas Detry at $8,700, playing in the Nelson for the first time. I like how well he has done in 2024, and is ready to shine. Mackenzie Hughes at $8,600 is also worth it; he was T14th last year at Craig Ranch and has been consistent in 2024. Two-time champion K.H. Lee is just $8,300 and worth the gamble. He has played well of late, and I can see him winning it a third time. Mark Hubbard at $8,100 is worth looking at. He makes many birdies and has been consistent in 2024, including finishing 3rd last week at the Zurich with partner Ryan Brehm. I also have a feeling about Davis Thompson at $7,900. He was T-70th at Craig Ranch last year, but his game is peaking right now, so it is worth taking a gamble on him.

Are there any bargains out there?

Off the bat, I like Justin Lower at $7,500; he was T-43rd last week and T-46 at Craig Ranch. He has been in the top 28 in his last four starts, and like that, on another bomber course, he finished T-3rd at the Mexico Open. Andrew Novak, at $7,500, is also a player good on bombers courses; he was T-8th at Phoenix and Mexico; he will at least make the cut this week. C.T. Pan at $7,300 is a great choice, he was 4th last year at Craig Ranch, and I like that he was T-3rd in Mexico and made the cut in his previous six starts. Cameron Champ at $6,900, is also a great bomber who will do ok this week. Nick Dunlap at $6,900, has been shaky since his win, but this course is right up his alley.

So what will it take to play well at TPC  Craig Ranch?

The ability to it it long and leave yourself with a wedge into the greens.  Once you get them onto the green, making some putts.  This is a course that will allow a lot of birdies and eagles, look for some really low scoring

Weather, that will be the key.

Look for some poor weather this week, every day will be in the low 80s with scattered Thunderstorms each day.  So anything could happen if there are a lot of delays.