Wells Fargo Championship Key Fantasy Stats

Wells Fargo Championship

May 9th – 12th, 2024

Quail Hollow Club

Charlotte,, NC

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,538

Purse: $20 million

with $3,600,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Wyndham Clark

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Quail Hollow has a lot of history in the last 21 years of hosting events as it continues hosting not only the Wells Fargo but, in 2017, the PGA Championship, 2022, the Presidents Cup, and the 2025 PGA Championship. For the PGA Championship, the first five holes were altered, with par being reduced from 72 to 71 and only a subtraction of 19 yards. For the PGA Championship, changes were made to the course. First, a new type of Ultradwarf Bermudagrass was planted. They also cut down several thousand trees, so Quail Hollow is much sparser than before. They also have created four holes that will be different as the 1st and 2nd holes are now one long, 540 yard, par 4. The 5th hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4, and a new second hole was built; it’s now a par 3. Also, significant work was done to the 11th hole. The famous finish wasn’t touched, but the course is now a par 71 compared to it being a par 72. Even with the reduced par, the course only lost 19 yards and played at 7,554 yards.
The dates are the big difference between when the 2017 PGA Championship was played and when it was played at Wells Fargo. The PGA played in August when the course was bone dry and ran fast. In May, the course was more lush and did not have as much role, so it played a lot easier. In 2017, for the PGA Championship, the course played to an average of 73.47 and was the hardest course for the year. In 2018, when it returned its May date, the course played to a 72.13 average and was 5th hardest on Tour. In 2019, the course played to a 71.76 average and was the 8th hardest. No matter when it was played, the character of the course has not changed between the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo, but yes, it is more challenging at a par 71 than before. In 2021 (no event in 2020), the course played to a scoring average of 72.26 and was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
They rerouted the course for the Presidents Cup in 2022 to ensure that its most famous holes, 16 through 18, would be a factor in match play matches. Holes 1-8 remain unchanged from the original order, but the ninth hole for the Presidents Cup is the normal 12th hole. From there, Nos. 10-15 will be the original Nos. 13-18, meaning the “Green Mile” will be holes 13-15 for the matches. The closing stretch will be holes 10, 11, and nine.
The course returned to normal this year, as the “dream mile” will return to holes 16, 17, and 18. Also, since the course was used for the Presidents Cup, the Wells Fargo was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, just outside of Washington, D.C. The Wells Fargo returned to Quail Hollow in 2023, played to a 71.23 average, and was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

So this week’s information is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, data from Last year’s Wells Fargo Championship, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.

From year to year, Quail Hollow is always demanding and challenging; you look at the list of winners who are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh, Lucas Glover, defending champion Wyndham Clark now is on the list. Yes, some weird winners like Max Homa (yes, he was a fluke winner back then), Derek Ernst, Joey Sindelar, and James Hahn have won. Flukes happen, but most of the time at Quail Hollow, you’ll get a quality winner who plays well in major championships and significant events. So, looking at our four categories, we see that they are all related to ball striking, except for the last category, which will be very important: scrambling. Remember, our stats are for Quail Hollow only as in 2022; it was played at TPC Potomac in Maryland and not in 2020 due to COVID-19.

First is driving accuracy, which is essential in looking at Quail Hollow stats from last year and the years it’s been held at Wells Fargo. Last year, the course ranked 39th on the PGA Tour in driving distance (average, all holes 303.9 yards), and its 54.36% was 17th in driving accuracy (out of 58 courses). Winner Wyndham Clark ranked 19th in driving distance (all holes 312.3 yards) and T-63rd in driving accuracy, hitting only 23 of 56 fairways (41.07%).

Here is a look at the driving average at Quail Hollow for the last few years:
*2022 – Played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.
*2021 – Quail Hollow ranked 35th in driving distance (average, all holes 299.0 yards), and its 54.09% was 9th in driving accuracy (out of 50 courses).
Winner Rory McIlroy ranked 2nd in driving distance (all holes, 322.7 yards) and T-76th in driving accuracy, hitting only 19 of 56 fairways (33.93%).
*2020 – Was not played due to COVID
*2019 – Quail Hollow ranked 32nd in driving distance (average, all holes 299.1 yards), and its 55.57% was 8th in driving accuracy (out of 49 courses).
Winner Max Homa ranked 23rd in driving distance (all holes, 302.5 yards) and T-45th in driving accuracy, hitting only 31 of 56 fairways (55.36%).
*2018 – Quail Hollow ranked 36th in driving distance (average, all holes 301.7 yards) and, with 52.34% accuracy, 6th in driving accuracy (out of 51 courses).
Winner Jason Day ranked 9th in driving distance (all holes, 316.3 yards) and T-49th in driving accuracy, hitting only 27 of 56 fairways (48.21%).
So driving it far and straight is essential.

Our second category is Proximity to hole. We consider hitting greens one of the essential stats. Last year, the course ranked 16th in greens in regulation. In the 18 years that Quail Hollow has hosted the Wells Fargo, nine of the 18 years saw the winners finish in the top five in Greens in Regulation, with Wyndham Clark leading that category last year hitting 58 of 72 greens. But for our second category, we will take it a step further with Proximity to the hole, which is the distance to the hole from shots hit from the fairway. Last year, the course ranked 3rd as the field averaged 43 feet and 4 inches from the hole. Last year’s winner, Clark, ranked 4th, averaging 36 feet, nine inches from the hole.

Here is a look at greens hit along with Proximity to hole at Quail Hollow for the last few years:
*2022 – Played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.
*2021 – The course ranked 10th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 2nd in Proximity to hole, averaging 43 feet and 10 inches.
Winner Rory McIlroy was 3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 54 of 72 greens and T-13th in Proximity to hole, averaging 40 feet and 6 inches.
*2020 – Was not played due to COVID
*2019 – The course ranked 9th in Greens in Regulation (out of 49 courses) and 2nd in Proximity to hole, averaging 41 feet and 7 inches.
Winner Max Homa was T-17th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 49 of 72 greens, and 16th in Proximity to hole, averaging 37 feet and 10 inches.
*2018 – The course ranked 10th in Greens in Regulation (out of 51 courses) and 3rd in Proximity to hole, averaging 42 feet and 9 inches.
Winner Jason Day was T-69th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 41 of 72 greens, and 59th in Proximity to hole, averaging 44 feet and 2 inches.

Our third category is Strokes Gained tee-to-green, which considers distance and accuracy off the tee and greens hit. Driving and greens hit are essential in looking at Quail Hollow’s stats over the last couple of years. Every year, greens hit, and driving accuracy is critical and key to playing the course well. The course ranked 2nd in greens hit last year, 10th in Greens in Regulation in 2021, 9th in 2019, and 10th in greens hit in 2018.
In driving accuracy, the course was 17th last year, 9th in 2021, 8th in 2019, and 6th in 2018. So, the combination of hitting fairways and greens is essential.
Last year, tournament winner Wyndham Clark ranked 19th in driving distance, averaging 312.2 yards per all drives, was 63rd in Fairways hit, and T-1st in greens hit. In strokes gained Tee-to-Green, Clark was 1st, and in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, he was 20th.

Here is a look at the driving distance, accuracy, and greens hit for the Wells Fargo winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.
*2021 – The course ranked 35th in driving distance, with an average drive of all holes being 299.0 yards (out of 51 courses), 9th in driving accuracy, and 10th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Rory McIlroy was 2nd in driving distance, averaging 322.7 yards per all drives, T-76th in accuracy, hitting 19 of 54 fairways, and 3rd in Greens in Regulation, hitting 54 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
*2020 – Was not played due to COVID
*2019 – The course ranked 32nd in driving distance, with an average drive of all holes being 299.1 yards (out of 49 courses), 8th in driving accuracy, and 9th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Max Homa was 23rd in driving distance, averaging 302.5 yards per all drives, T-45th in accuracy, hitting 31 of 54 fairways, and T-17th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 49 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
*2018 – The course ranked 36th in driving distance, with an average drive of all holes being 301.7 yards (out of 51 courses), 6th in driving accuracy, and 10th in Greens in Regulation.
Winner Jason Day was 9th in driving distance, averaging 316.3 yards per all drives, T-49th in accuracy, hitting 27 of 54 fairways, and T-69th in Greens in Regulation, hitting 41 of 72 greens. Between the three stats, he ranked 9th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Our last category is scrambling mainly because of its history, where lots of greens are missed. Quail Hollow is adamant about getting it up and down since the course is a shot-maker delight. Last year, it ranked 12th hardest in scrambling out of 58 courses, with players getting it up and down on greens missing 55.24% of the time. Winner Clark was ranked T-6th, getting it up and down in 17 of the 24 greens he missed.

Here is a look at the scrambling of the Wells Fargo winners over the last few years:
*2022 – Played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.
*2021 – Quail Hollow finished 10th in scrambling of the 51 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 53.48% of the time
Winner Rory McIlroy was ranked 1st, getting it up and down in 14 of the 18 greens he missed.
*2020 – Was not played due to COVID
*2019 – Quail Hollow finished 12th in scrambling of the 49 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 56.32% of the time
Winner Max Homa was ranked 2nd, getting it up and down in 18 of the 23 greens he missed.
*2018 – Quail Hollow finished 12th in scrambling of the 51 courses that tracked scrambling for the year, getting it up and down 54.48% of the time
Winner Jason Day was ranked T-16th, getting it up and down in 24 of the 31 greens he missed.

The winner must do a great job getting it up and down on the greens he missed.

So the secret is that a ball striker or an excellent putter will rule and take the championship this week. I tend to favor ball striking because, in the past, that has been more important.

*Driving Accuracy: Is important because the fairways are close to the U.S. Open length, and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, in 2021 Quail Hollow ranked 10th in Greens in Regulation, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 2nd as the players averaged getting it 43 feet, ten inches.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: You need to hit it long and straight, along with hitting lots of greens. Last year the course was 39th in driving distance and 17th in accuracy. So this is important to find a player who will do this

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better. Last year, Quail Hollow was 12th on the PGA Tour, showing how tough it is to scramble at Quail Hollow.

Here are the 69 of 69 players from this year’s field with stats from 2024 (Ludvig Aberg withdrew on Monday)

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.