BlogWells Fargo Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s amazing how little we know about a player. How many betters picked Taylor Pendrith in the Byron Nelson last week?   Out of 33,000 players in the DraftKings game last week, 4.78% of them (about 1,500) made Pendrith one of their six picks. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, if you had bet $10 last week on Pendrith, who was +10,000, you would have won $1,010. Even if you had bet $10 on Pendrith to finish in the top ten, you would have won $90. In the 19 events (not including the Zurich team), there were ten payouts like this over the year for players like Grayson Murray (Sony), Nick Dunlap (Amex), Matthieu Pavon (Farmers), Jake Knapp (Mexico), Austin Eckroat (Cognizant), Broce Garmett (Puerto Rico), Peter Malnati (Valspar), Stephan Jaeger (Houston), Akshay Bhatia (Texas) and Pendrith at the Nelson. This is amazing and makes picking winners on the PGA Tour very rare. Only Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk (Barley), Wyndham Clark, Nick Taylor, Hideki Matsuyama, and Billy Horschel are past PGA Tour winners who won this year and were not considered longshots. But honestly, of the six players who weren’t considered longshots, how many would people bet on? Only one was a long shot, Scottie Scheffler.

So why is this happening?

If you look at the world rankings, how many players were in the top 25 when they won on the PGA Tour in 2025? Only three, including Rory McIlroy, who won the Zurich team event. The other two are Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark, ranked tenth when he won the AT&T Pebble Beach in a shortened 54-hole event.

Now, I’ve been following the PGA Tour for almost 50 years, and we always see longshots like Taylor Pendrith win, but it’s not in the same realm when only three of the top 25 ranked players win 20 events.

So could it be because of the players that have gone to LIV Golf? Some of it, you have to wonder, would Jon Rahm, who has won on the LIV Tour, be a different player if he was a regular on the PGA Tour? Same with players like Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Joaquin Niemann? These are strong players who have won on the PGA Tour and could easily be winners if they were on the PGA Tour.

Could signature events be the reason for all of this?

Of the 19 regular events, five are signature events, plus the big money events at The Players and The Masters, so that makes seven of the 19 events. Of those seven events, Scottie Scheffler only played in three events that weren’t on that list. Same with Wyndham Clark, he has played in ten events, seven of which are the big seven. Here is a list of some of the marquee players and how many events they have played this year:

• Viktor Hovland played in 6 events in 2024 (none of them
• Tommy Fleetwood played 8 events in 2024 (one of which is not one of the seven)
• Rory McIlroy played 9 events in 2024 (Missed Sentry, played three of the six major events)
• Collin Morikawa played in 10 events in 2024 (three of them not part of the seven)
• Patrick Cantlay played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)
• Max Homa played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)
• Wyndham Clark played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)
• Ludvig Aberg played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)
• Hideki Matsuyama played in 10 events in 2024 (three of which are not part of the seven)
• Xander Schauffele played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)
• Jordan Spieth played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)
• Brian Harman played in 11 events in 2024 (four of which are not part of the seven)
• Matt Fitzpatrick played in 12 events in 2024 (five of which are not part of the seven)

I believe the combination of players missing regular events like Byron Nelson last week and the players who are now part of LIV Golf are the reasons. The PGA Tour could be hurting itself by having so many signature events. We have always had the four majors and the Players. Up until this year, we also had three World Golf Championship events, so in years past, players had to play in eight major events. Now, with 8 signature events plus the five other “majors,” that is 13, so that means players will not be playing in five events like Byron Nelson last week, so that is a good reason for the high number of longshots this year.

As we look at this week’s Wells Fargo, the question of whether this event will continue after this year will come up. Despite wanting to sponsor this event in the future, Wells Fargo objected to having to pay additional money for a $20 million purse. Farmers Insurance, another sponsor that won’t be there, dropped its sponsorship of the San Diego event. How many more are on the verge of doing the same? It’s a challenging situation that the PGA Tour is in with having to match the purses of LIV Golf, but frankly, after three years, we have seen that LIV Golf is not the same caliber of events that have been a part of the PGA Tour. On top of that, we are hearing more stories of players looking for higher purses and more payouts, like the money that 193 players received last week as part of the Equity Payment Plan. Does Tiger Woods need another $100 million? Does Rory McIlroy really need $50 million? 36 of the top players on the PGA Tour sliced up $750 million of the money from Strategic Sports Group. That’s not free money; the investors in this group are some of the most savvy investors in sports and will be looking for big payouts in the future. That is money going to richer people instead of money for purses in future PGA Tour events, and you have to wonder if charities that have gotten checks from tournaments in the past will get smaller payouts.

Things you need to know about the Wells Fargo:

This is the 21st year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which has been played every year at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, except for 2017 and 2022. Eagle Point and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms were big successes, but Quail Hollow is the course of record for Wells Fargo.

Course information:

• Quail Hollow Golf Club
• Charlotte, N.C.
• 7,538 yards     Par 35-36–71

Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 Bermuda Grass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last year’s event and are Champion Ultradwarf Bermudagrass.

One of the big secrets to Quail Hollow is that the players love the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina, it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and, in the players’ eyes, one of the best challenges. For years, it was considered a “U.S. Open-type” venue, and the PGA of America was smart enough to hold its major on it.

Quail Hollow Club is located in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a private member club founded by James J. Harris on April 13, 1959. The club hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979, the PaineWebber World Seniors Invitational from 1983 through 1989, and the Wells Fargo Championship since it debuted in 2003.

The property was initially a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course, and it opened in June 1961. To attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much that he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.

Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a significant renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.

But at the end of 2016, the course underwent a lot of changes to get ready for the 2017 PGA Championship, Wells Fargo, and any other events that will be played on the course in the future. Along with redoing all of the greens, thousands of trees were removed, a bit like Oakmont Country Club. This reshaped the way the course plays and made the elements of wind come into more effect.

They also made significant changes in four holes.  The first and second holes were condensed into a single hole, a 540-yard par 4. The fifth hole was changed from a par 5 to a par 4. A new second hole was built, a par 3. The 11th was given extra bunkering.  The average green size is 6,500, which is about average and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers.  Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18).  Along with the changing of the greens, course architect Tom Fazio made some changes four years ago to the 8th hole, making it play straight, and now is potentially a driveable par 4.  He also made a significant change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake more into play, making it a lot tougher.  He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole.  The changes were well received,even the change from a par 72 to 71.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Quail Hollow.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database covering 75 events, beginning at the start of the 2023 season and ending with the 2024 Byron Nelson. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,800
• Xander Schauffele – $11,500
• Wyndham Clark – $10,500
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,500
• Max Homa – $9,400
• Collin Morikawa – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Matt Fitzpatrick – $9,300
• Sahith Theegala – $9,100

The event’s pricing is fair; yes, Rory McIlroy is the best player in the field, but at the cost of $11,800. His season could have been better with just one top ten in the Valero Texas Open before teaming up with Shane Lowry to win the Zurich team event. The reason to pick McIlroy this week is his record at Quail Hollow; in 12 starts, he has three wins and nine top ten. It’s a rare week in Charlotte that Rory doesn’t play well, and this week will continue his incredible run at Quail Hollow. Xander Schauffele at $11,500, is also a good pick; he played well last year, finishing 2nd, and despite not playing well in his previous two starts, he was 8th at the Masters, T-5th at Valspar and T-2nd at the Players. I have no reason to pick defending champion Wyndham Clark at $10,500, sorry just hasn’t shown much of late since finishing 2nd at the Palmer and Players. Patrick Cantlay at $9,800 is too high for a player who has been very inconsistent this year. Yes, he was T-3rd at the Heritage, a course he owns, and other than a T-4th at Genesis, he has played terribly. Despite a tremendous tee-to-green game, which should make him a favorite, he has yet to play well at Quail Hollow. Tommy Fleetwood at $9,500 has frustrated me; we know his potential, but he rarely shows it. He played well at the Masters and Texas and finished T-5th last year in this event, but I still won’t pay the price for him. Max Homa, at $9,400, has won at Quail Hollow and was T-8th last year, but, still, I wouldn’t say I like how his game has been this year, so despite finishing T-3rd at the Masters, he is a no for me. It’s hard to believe that Collin Morikawa, who is $9,300, has only played once at Quail Hollow and missed the cut. Still, his putting seems to be improved, and he played well at the Masters and Heritage, so he is a yes for me. It’s hard to believe how high Viktor Hovland is priced at $9,200. His game has been a wreck all year, and we know he will figure it out, but I will not support him until I feel comfortable with him. Matt Fitzpatrick at $9,300 is a good pick because he does well on tough courses like Quail Hollow.  Sahith Theegala is $$9,100 and has been hit or miss all year. I think Quail Hollow doesn’t suit his game, so I will pass on him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Hideki Matsuyama, priced at $8,900, is a good choice. Despite a struggle at the Masters, he has shown strong performance in his recent starts. His record at Quail Hollow may not be stellar, but the course suits his style. Cameron Young, at $8,800, finished T-2nd at TPC Avenel in 2022, indicating his potential for a breakout performance. Adam Scott, priced at $7,700, is a solid pick, having finished T-5th last year at Quail Hollow.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Denny McCarthy, at $7,300, is an excellent buy. His putting will help him this week, he was T-8th last year and has had his moments this year, including finishing 2nd at the Valero Texas. Billy Horschel is $7,200, and it’s hard to believe he has only played once at Quail Hollow, finishing T-33rd in 2011. His game is sharp, and he should have a good week. Tom Kim at $7,000 is priced right. Yes, he still has yet to finish in the top 15 in 2024, but this could be an excellent place to break that. He was T-23rd in his only Quail Hollow start last year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

• Hit it long and straight, avoid the 130 bunkers, and put well, making all your putts inside of ten feet.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Since the course will play at more than 7,538 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. But as you will see, length is not the only strength you need to play well at Quail Hollow. Four of the 17 Wells Fargo winners (James Hahn, Jim Furyk, David Toms, and Joey Sindelar) do not have the reputation as long hitters even though the 2005 winners Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Rory McIlroy, Derek Ernst, J.B. Holmes, and Max Homa do hit it long. So it’s a 50/50 proposition on if longer hitters have an advantage.
• Quail Hollow joins Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Bethpage, which have held major championship and PGA Tour events. The course will play a bit easier than it did for the PGA Championship, primarily because of weather conditions and course setup. Still, the fairways will be tight with three-inch plus rough and fast undulating greens. The course consistently ranks as one of the most challenging courses the pros play year in and year out.
• Since the greens have some roll in them, it will also be challenging to not only hit the green but get it close. Sharp iron play will also help with the imagination when you get in trouble. But as we have seen in the history of Quail Hollow, the winners are diverse, such as Jason Day in 2018, Justin Thomas winning the PGA Championship, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, and Tiger Woods. One thing that is interesting of the 17 different winners at Quail Hollow (including Justin Thomas at PGA), nine of them (Clark in 2023, Day in 2018, Thomas in 2017, McIlroy 2021, ’15 & ’10, Glover 2011, Woods 2007, Furyk 2006, Singh 2005 and Toms in 2003) have won a major championship.
• Scrambling will be at a premium; look for good chippers like Jason Day or Rory McIlroy to have a significant advantage here. Alex Noren, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, and Makenzie Hughes are in the top ten for 2024 on this year’s scrambling list. These are folks to watch this week.
• Putting is always a key to winning, but good putters should have a field day this year. Green speeds were lowered in 2008, and Anthony Kim was 2nd in total putts. But it popped up in 2009 as Sean O’Hair was T47th, the worst of any champion. In 2010, McIlroy was T38th in this category, while in 2011, Glover was 3rd. In 2012, Fowler was T40th, while in 2013, Derek Ernst was T34th. J.B. Holmes was T4th in total putts in 2014, while in 2015, Rory McIlroy was T-13th in putts, and James Hahn in 2016 was T-14th. In 2017, Justin Thomas was 6th in total putting, 4th in Strokes gained-putting, and 2nd in putting average at the PGA Championship. In 2018, Jason Day was first in total putting, and 2019 champion Max Homa was 2nd. In 2021, Rory McIlroy won and was 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting, the same as the winner Wyndham Clark last year.
• One of the keys to mastering Quail Hollow is playing well on the final four holes. Showing the difficulty of this stretch dubbed the “The Green Mile,” holes 16, 17, and 18 have been in the top 70 of the PGA Tour’s most challenging holes. Throw in the par 5, 15th. It’s a brutal stretch in which the last six champions have excelled on. How good? Last year, Wyndham Clark had three under par. In 2021, Rory McIlroy was 1 over; in 2019, Max Homa was 1 under; in 2018, Jason Day was 3 under on the mile and 5 under on the last 4 holes. At the PGA Championship in 2017, Justin Thomas was 1 under on the last four holes. In 2016 James Hahn played the stretch in 1 over, the exact total as Rory McIlroy played it in 2015. J.B. Holmes played the stretch in 3 under; in 2013, Derek Ernst was four under; in 2012, Rickie Fowler was 3 under; in 2011, Lucas Glover was 1 under; and in 2010, Rory McIlroy was 3 under.
• Last, we have to look at the weather this week. Expect poor weather on Thursday and Friday with thunderstorms but mostly sunny conditions over the weekend. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s each day, with winds under 10 mph.
• There is a need for patience. This is one of those courses where par is your friend, so don’t look for low scoring.