BlogPGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

A lot of buzz is going into the PGA Championship, and it’s not very promising for all the betters.

Coming off his wins at the Wells Fargo and Zurich Classic, Rory McIlroy was on almost everyone’s list as a top player. We have seen this happen in most of McIlroy’s big wins; he has played well going into a major or significant event. He won the 2015 Wells Fargo two weeks after winning the WGC Match Play. Before winning the 2014 PGA Championship, he won the WGC-Bridgestone the week before and the British Open three weeks before the PGA Championship. Before winning the 2014 British Open, he won the BMW PGA Championship a month earlier. In 2012, he won the PGA Championship, the Deutsche Bank, and the BMW Championship in a three-week span. So the thought of McIlroy winning the team event in New Orleans and then the Wells Fargo over the weekend seemed like the perfect scenario.

But on Tuesday, rumors swirled that McIlroy had filed for divorce from his wife of seven years, Erica. According to the New York Post, McIlroy filed the papers in Florida, citing the marriage as “irretrievably broken. In the filing, McIlroy said he and Erica would have “shared parental responsibility” for their 3-year-old daughter, Poppy, and he also wants the court to uphold their prenuptial agreement, which was signed in March 2017 and reportedly gives her $200 million.

So the first question is, why did McIlroy enter the same week as a major? Couldn’t he wait until the Monday after the PGA? It was shocking when I first heard about it, but then, looking at McIlroy’s movements, I can now see that he was in the fog of change. I was a little shocked when he changed his whole routine in January to play more; then, he was going to Las Vegas to get swing help from Butch Harman. It seemed odd that he was spending so much time away from home. I also thought it was strange that he didn’t play in the Par 3 event at the Masters; in previous years, his wife and daughter would join him, but McIlroy didn’t even show up for the Par 3 competition. However, the sign of possible problems was McIlroy’s poor play; if his marriage was dissolving, it would have made sense for his poor play earlier in the year.

So now the big question. In many people’s minds, he was the bettors’ top pick after his win at Wells Fargo. So, with McIlroy filing for divorce, does that mean he might not play well this week? At first, I thought that was bad, but this didn’t happen a few days ago. This has been brewing for a long time, months, maybe a year. So, I am still very optimistic about Rory McIlroy.

What about Scottie Scheffler?

I’m not bullish on Scheffler; sorry, you can’t take two weeks off before a major and help your wife deliver the couple’s first child. No matter how Scheffler plays this, I would be suspicious of his game, especially around the greens and putting. Now, many will say, hey Sal, you warned us about Scheffler at the Heritage, and he won. Yes, I did say that, and Scheffler won, but I will bet the farm that he will not win this week, and it’s wise not to have any involvement with Scheffler this week.

Others in trouble

Jordan Spieth is a no for me. I believe his wrist is a problem, even though he says it’s a “come and go” thing. This is Jordan’s 12th PGA Championship, and it’s the only one left for him to get the Grand Slam. Spieth finished 2nd in 2015 and T-3rd in 2019 but has struggled since. Just like the pressure that Phil Mickelson faces at the U.S. Open or Rory McIlroy at the Masters, the same is true for Spieth at the PGA Championship. I don’t see the stars aligning this week, so he’s a no for me.

Lots of others on the DL

Last week, Hideki Matsuyama withdrew from Wells Fargo with a back problem. We need to watch him this week, especially if the weather is cold and wet. Will Zalatoris also withdrew from Byron Nelson with a possible back problem. He played Wells Fargo and finished T-60 with rounds of 70-70-74-80. It was a brutal finish, and we have to think that there is a possible problem with him this week, so avoid him.

I am also worried about Ludvig Aberg, who withdrew from the Wells Fargo. He wrote in a statement, “I was very excited to tee it up for the first time at Quail Hollow. Unfortunately, I’ve been dealing with a knee issue, and after consulting with my doctors, we feel it’s best that I take some additional time to rest. I hope everyone has a great week, and I look forward to teeing it up next week. We are still waiting to hear from Aberg for this week. Yes, I understand it was a prudent reason for him not to play at Quail Hollow, but I’m avoiding Aberg this week.

LIV Players

Of course, Brooks Koepka will be a popular choice this week. He won his last LIV start in Singapore after complaining of struggling with his game. I think he found it. Koepka played at Valhalla in 2014 and finished T-15th, so you have to believe Koepka will be in the running.

Many will wonder about Jon Rahm, who has only two top-ten finishes in seven PGA Championships: T-4th in 2018 at Bellerive and T-8th in 2021. Rahm plays well on bomber courses, and I think Valhalla is a bomber course.

One big longshot could be Phil Mickelson. Yes, I have heard him talk about retirement; frankly, he is playing the odds because his LIV contract ends this year; his play is so foul I don’t see them paying him over $200 million in future years. But for this week, I say watch Mickelson; he has played in every event at Valhalla, including the 2008 Ryder Cup. We should look at the history: in 1996, he was T-8 at Valhalla; in 2000, he was T-9; and in 2014, he was runner-up. So he’s got good karma with Valhalla, so don’t be surprised to see him in the top ten this week.

Anyone else? Joaquin Niemann and Talor Gooch could be good; check them out.

Anyone else?

I don’t like Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland.  Both are in terrible slumps and especially Hovland is and will struggle this week.

Tournament information:

This is the 105th edition of this event, one of golf’s four major championships. It’s the third oldest behind the British Open and U.S. Open. The plans for the PGA Championship were created on January 16, 1916, at a meeting of a group of PGA Tour professionals, including Walter Hagen. Their vision was to create a national championship that would rival the U.S. Open in terms of importance. Their dream came to reality just months later as the first PGA Championship Match Play event was played at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, NY, that year. Englishman Jim Barnes took home the inaugural crown.

After the inaugural tournament, the event took a two-year break from 1917 to 1918 because of World War I. The break-in action didn’t phase Jim Barnes, as he went on to win the PGA Championship in its return to the Tour in 1919. Since the two-year hiatus, The PGA Championship has only seen one other break in 1943 due to World War II. The most significant change in the event’s history occurred in 1958 when the format changed from Match Play to 72-hole stroke play.

The famed Wanamaker trophy, awarded to the winner of the PGA Championship, can trace its routes back to the beginning of golf equipment. In the early part of the 20th Century, A.G. Spalding & Bros. was the predominant maker of golf equipment; however, Rodman Wanamaker sought to create a company that would rival Spalding in the golf industry. Though his plan ultimately failed, his dream will always be remembered as he was the one who first sponsored the PGA Championship and the trophy that today bears his name.

Course information:

• Valhalla Golf Club
• Louisville, Ky.
• 7,609 yards     Par 35-36–71

We have all heard about new courses that many claim are magical wonders, but the actual test of a course is when the tournament is held, especially when a major championship is played on it. In 1996, the PGA of America took a chance on the course outside Louisville, Kentucky. Now, politics has a lot to do with hosting four PGA Championships and a Ryder Cup in 28 years. First, the PGA of America invested in the course when it was built in 1986 and then took over ownership. In 2022, the PGA sold the course to a group of Louisville investors, so we will see if the course will ever host another PGA Championship or Ryder Cup. Still, many say the course is excellent for a major championship and has been supported by the community. With the possibility of inclement weather hitting the Louisville area in mid-May, I wonder if that will play a role in future PGA Championships.

One of Valhalla’s advantages is its size; it sits on 485 acres 20 miles outside of Louisville. That gives it plenty of room around the holes to give spectators excellent views and hide the necessary cart paths behind hills or in the trees.

Valhalla sits on land that forms two very different nines. The front is a flat meadow with a river running through several holes. Although not considered a link design, several holes have that look. The back nine is completely different, played on the side of a hill with the fairways guarded by tall hardwood trees.
Many think the course is chosen as the site of a PGA Championship because of how challenging the course is, the excellent shot value, the tradition, and the promise that the venue will produce a first-class tournament with a worthy champion. In most cases, this is true, and Valhalla has delivered some of that. But let’s face it, the real reason Valhalla was chosen to host four PGA Championships in 28 years and the 2008 Ryder Cup is money and politics.

Politics, because the PGA of America largely owns the course. The money is twofold; a course fee is a minor deal on a course owned by the PGA of America, and two golf-starved Kentuckians will sell the place out.

Now, here is an interesting statistic. Jack Nicklaus is a very popular golf course architect, with a dozen courses hosting PGA Tour events since 2000. But in major championships, only two Nicklaus courses have been venues, here at Valhalla and Shoal Creek.

As a course, Valhalla is pretty good, with 18 very different types of holes. There isn’t a weak hole among them, with a couple proving unique. The toughest hole in ’96 and 2000 was the 12th, a dogleg right that plays 467 yards with most of the trouble coming off the tee. Miss the fairway, and you have no shot at the green, as evidenced in the previous two years when more bogeys and double bogeys were made on this hole than any other. In 2014, the 12th hole was the 4th hardest hole, and the 2nd hole was the hardest of the week, with a 4.362 clip. The hole was the hardest because it was changed from a par 5 in ’96 and 2000 to a 500-yard par 4.

Another tough hole was the par-5 seventh. On a day when most par-5s are pushovers, the seventh proved otherwise. Although it was played under par, it averaged 4.94 in 1996, 4.73 in 2000, and 4.76 in 2014, making it one of the toughest par-5s on tour.

In 2012, Jack Nicklaus was brought in to make some changes to the course for the 2014 PGA Championship. All 18 greens were redesigned, all bunkers were altered and cleaned up, and significant changes were made to holes 2, 3, 7, 9, 14, and 15. One of the most critical changes was changing the second hole from a par 5 to a par 4. Even with the reduction in par, 291 yards have been added since 2000.

For 2024, Valhalla has undergone another renovation as 151 yards have been added to the course, bringing it to 7,609 yards and a par of 71. The increase seems drastic, with the course increasing yardage by 2%. But in the decade since Rory McIlroy won the PGA Championship, the average drive on the PGA Tour has gone up a little less than 3%, so in the long run, it’s a wash; the course will play about the same as in years past. In recent years, the Nicklaus design team has made some changes for this year’s PGA Championship. Four holes have been altered; the par 4 first hole added 50 yards while the par 4 12th hole added 20 yards. The par 3, 14th hole, which was 217 yards in 2014, was stretched to 254 yards this year. Finally, the one hole that has never been altered over the years will see changes this year. In past years, it played to 542 yards and was considered a gambling hole with water not only in front of the green, making it hard to get home in two, but water guarding the right side of the fairway in the place to lay up. For this year’s PGA Championship, 28 yards were added to make it 570 yards. The water is still down the fairway’s right side but no longer in front of the green. However, with the added length, it’s still within reach for most of the field, but only if a drive is hit down the fairway.

The course has received high praise from the players in the three PGAs and the Ryder Cup, and I can see that happening again this year.

In 1996, the course averaged 72.636 (half a shot over par, then par 72), making it the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour. In 2000, the course played to a 72.971 average (just over par, again a par 72), making it the 9th hardest course on tour that year. In 2014, the course played to a par 71, and the scoring average was 71.540, the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour that year. The course had a lot of rain during the tournament, which was one of the reasons it played more manageable than in previous years.

Unfortunately, that will be the faith of this year’s PGA Championship, as showers will hit every day of play and the Tuesday and Wednesday before. So, we will see a lot of low scoring this year.

Valhalla Golf Club is a very demanding course. You have to hit it hard and long. Data is sketchy for 1996 and 2000, but in 2014, it ranked 14th hardest in driving distance out of 36 courses used that year (all 14 drives measured). So, with an average drive of 278.0 yards, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. The 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, had an average drive of 329.4 yards and finished 1st. In 1996, winner Mark Brooks averaged 283.4 yards and finished T-21st, while in 2000, Tiger Woods averaged 305.0 yards and finished 1st.

In 2014, Valhalla saw 65.41% of fairways hit as it ranked 34th hardest in fairways hit. 2014 winner Rory McIlroy hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-10th. 1996 winner Mark Brooks hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-43rd. 2000 winner Tiger Woods hit 45 of 56 fairways, which ranked him T-12th.

One of the keys to playing well at Valhalla is hitting the greens. In 2014, the field hit 60.65 percent of the greens and ranked 13th out of 48 courses ranked that year. Winner McIlroy hit 50 of 72 greens and finished T-14th. In 1995, winner Brooks hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-30th, while Tiger Woods hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in 2000.

Valhalla has had a great run of tournaments between the four PGA Championships, the Ryder Cup, and two Senior PGA Championships.  With the PGA selling all of its interests in the course, there won’t be a reason to hold any more events at Valhalla.  With the PGA Championship in mid-May, it’s a bad time weather-wise for Valhalla, so we may be seeing the last time a big tournament will be held on this course for a long time.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing on the Valhalla:

Valhalla Golf Club is a very demanding course. You have to hit it hard and long. Data is sketchy for 1996 and 2000, but in 2014, it ranked 14th hardest in driving distance out of 36 courses used that year (all 14 drives measured). So, with an average drive of 278.0 yards, players tend to use more drivers on this course and look to get it down the fairways and not lay up off the tee to avoid problems. The 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, had an average drive of 329.4 yards and finished 1st. In 1996, winner Mark Brooks averaged 283.4 yards and finished T-21st, while in 2000, Tiger Woods averaged 305.0 yards and finished 1st.
In 2014, Valhalla saw 65.41% of fairways hit as it ranked 34th hardest in fairways hit. 2014 winner Rory McIlroy hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-10th. 1996 winner Mark Brooks hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-43rd. 2000 winner Tiger Woods hit 45 of 56 fairways, which ranked him T-12th.

One of the keys to playing well at Valhalla is hitting the greens. In 2014, the field hit 60.65 percent of the greens and ranked 13th out of 48 courses ranked that year. Winner McIlroy hit 50 of 72 greens and finished T-14th. In 1995, winner Brooks hit 50 of 72 greens and ranked T-30th, while Tiger Woods hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked 1st in 2000.

So here we go with our four key categories. Our first key stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Unfortunately, this stat didn’t exist until 2003, so we only have hard data for 1996 and 2000.
*1996 – The field hit an average of 64.67% of the greens and ranked 22nd, while the field hit 71.82% of the fairways and ranked 40th. Winner Brooks hit 73.21% of the fairways, tied for 43rd, and 69.44% of the greens, and tied for 30th.
*2000 – The field hit an average of 6127% of the greens and ranked T-12th, while the field hit 70.81% of the fairways and ranked 40th. Winner Woods hit 80.36% of the fairways and finished T-12th and 83.33% of the greens, and finished 1st.
*2014 – The field hit 65.41% of the fairways at Valhalla, tying for 34th, and 60.65% of the greens, tying for 13th.
Winner McIlroy was T-14th in greens in regulation, hitting 50 of 72 greens, and T-10th, hitting 41 of 56 fairways. He finished T-32nd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, losing 0.008 shots per round.

Scrambling is our second key stat, mainly because of the history of many missed greens. At Valhalla, the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see that players can get it up and down on missed greens.
*1996 – Only 47.54% of missed greens got up and down, making Valhalla the hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Brooks had a tough time getting it up and down as he only got it up and down on 10 of the 22 greens he missed, which ranked T-63rd.
*2000 – Only 50.46% of the greens he missed got up and down, making Valhalla the 6th hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Woods did a little better at getting it up and down as he only got it up and down on 8 of the 12 greens he missed, which ranked T-4th.
*2000 – Only 55.72% of the greens he missed got up and down, making Valhalla the 16th hardest course to get up and down on. Winner McIlroy got it up and down on 16 of the 22 missed greens, which ranks T-9th.

Another essential skill for success is putting. So for our third category, we chose making putts inside 10 feet.
The only year this statistic was measured was 2014, when the field at Valhalla made 87.48 putts inside 10 feet. It ranked 21st. For winner McIlroy, he got it up and down on 61 of 69 putts in that range, ranking 40th.
Looking at putting for Brooks, he led the putting average statistic in 1996, while Tiger Woods was 29th in putting average in 2000.

Our final category is one in which players must find a way to make birdies and eagles score well, Par Breakers since making eagles and birdies is significant.

So here is a look at the Par Breakers for the PGA Championship winners at Valhalla:
*1996 – 1,589 birdies (47th hardest of the 53 courses) and 44 eagles (48th) as 19.64% of the holes were played under par, making it the 35th hardest of the 53 courses that year.
Winner Mark Brooks made 23 birdies (best) and had one eagle, playing 33.33% of his holes under par and ranking 1st in Par Breakers.
*2000 – 1,500 birdies (40th hardest out of 57 courses) and 16 eagles (23rd) as 18.58% of holes played were under par, making it the 21st hardest of 57 courses that year.
Winner Tiger Woods made 25 birdies (best) and no eagles, as 34.72% of the holes were under par, ranking him 1st in Par Breakers.
*2014 – Made 1,462 birdies (32nd hardest of the 48 courses that year) and 40 eagles (T-38th) as 18.42% of the holes were under par, making it the 20th hardest of the 48 courses that year.
Winner Rory McIlroy made 21 birdies (T-4) and two eagles, and 31.94% of the holes played were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at Valhalla?
34 of the players in the field this year played in 2014. Here are the best results:

Winner – Rory McIlroy
2nd – Phil Mickelson
T-3rd – Rickie Fowler
T-7th – Jimmy Walker
T-15th – Adam Scott
T-15th – Jason Day
T-15th – Brooks Koepka
T-24th – Justin Rose

Only four players in the field this year participated in 2000:
Winner – Tiger Woods
T-9th – Phil Mickelson
T-58th – Padraig Harrington
Cut – John Daly

Only two played in 1996, Phil Mickelson was T-8th and John Daly missed the cut.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a great barometer of how players are playing from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: Which course is hard to get up and down on holes where players miss the greens? Since all the areas around the greens are mowed short and players are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you need to make sure you can make pars from some tough spots.

*Putt inside 10 feet: This is very simple: count every putt inside 10 feet to see who makes the most.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

The 95 of the 156 players in this year’s field with stats from 2024. There are no stats for the 20 club pros in the field, foreign players, and LIV players.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database covering 75 events, beginning at the start of the 2023 season and ending with the 2024 Byron Nelson. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lots of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,200
• Rory McIlroy – $12,000
• Jon Rahm – $11,400
• Xander Schauffele – $10,900
• Brooks Koepka – $10,800
• Ludvig Aberg – $10,500
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
• Cameron Smith – $9,800
• Max Homa – $9,700
• Bryce DeChambeau – $9,800
• Wyndham Clark – $9,500
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,400
• Justin Thomas – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Will Zalatoris – $9,100
• Cameron Young – $9,000

There is no surprise with Scottie Scheffler at $13,200; he averages 105.7 points per game and has been awesome. But as we wrote at the beginning of this piece, with Scheffler and their wife Meredith giving birth to their boy on Saturday and Scheffler not playing much in the last two weeks, it’s a good time to say no to Scottie. Many will be worried about Rory McIlroy at $12,000 after the news of his divorce. I say not to worry about it. Rory has found his game, and I can see him continue his outstanding play, which he won in his last two starts at Wells Fargo and Zurich. Jon Rahm at $11,400 is a hard choice; he hasn’t adapted to LIV golf, the courses are too easy for him, and he still needs to win. But Rahm hits it long, and Valhalla could be up his alley, but be careful. I am not betting on him this week. Xander Schauffele is $10,900 and a good pick. He had to be disappointed at how the back nine went at Wells Fargo, but he will learn from that mistake and be ready to go this week. Brooks Koepka at $10,800, is a great pick; he is awesome in this event on this kind of course, so look for him to be in the mix. Ludvig Aberg at $10,500 is a no; I’m just worried about his knee. Collin Morikawa at $10,200 is a good choice; his game has shown signs of being close to winning, so don’t be surprised to see him putting all the pieces together this week. Patrick Cantlay at $10,000, has had a tough time this year, and I don’t see it getting better this week, so Patrick is a no for me. The same goes for Cameron Smith at $9,800; his game could be better on courses that he has to be good on from tee to green. I want to say yes to Max Homa at $9,700; he finished T-3rd at the Masters and T-8th at the Wells Fargo. I am just worried that he hasn’t been able to put together four solid rounds. Bryson DeChambeau at $9,800, could be a good pick, they played well at the Masters and could put it together this week. Wyndham Clark at $9,500, disappointed us by missing the cut at the Masters. This course suits his game, but I don’t like him. The same goes for Joaquin Niemann at $9,400. Yes, he can play well on LIV courses, but this course may be too hard for him. I can’t stress how much Justin Thomas who is $9,300, has struggled this year. Sorry, I don’t think he will break out of his major slump, which he missed in his last three cuts. I also can’t say no, loud enough, for Viktor Hovland at $9,200. He took a solid game in August and turned it into a big mess when he tried to improve it. Only expect him to do one thing: to miss the cut. Will Zalatoris at $9,100, is a no for me; there are too many hints that his back needs to be corrected. Cameron Young at $9,000, is a great choice, he will do well at Valhalla and get himself into contention.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Matt Fitzpatrick at $8,900, is a person to think about; he consistently finishes in the top 25 but has only had one top this year, 5th at the Players. Jordan Spieth at $8,800, is not a great choice. His wrist is a problem, and he seems to overthink the PGA Championship, the one event that, if he can win, could be a holder of all four majors. Tommy Fleetwood at $8,700 is a toss-up for me; he is just like Fitzpatrick, who has a lot of top 25s but not many wins or top threes. Sahith Theegala at $8,100, is an excellent buy; he has played well, makes cuts, and averages 71.8 DraftKings points per event. Patrick Reed is cheap enough at $8,000 to be worth the cost. This could be a good week for Jason Day at $7,900. The course suits his game, and he has shown signs of playing well; he could surprise us this week. Talor Gooch at $7,600, could also be good, he has played well on LIV golf and has been complaining about not getting invites to majors. He can prove himself this week.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the PGA Championship

We also have to find some cheap players to make the cut and give you some points. I like Rickie Fowler at $7,400 off the bat just because he finished T-3rd at Valhalla in 2014. He also has played ok this year and makes cuts. Regarding cuts, the best is Adam Scott, who is only $7,300 this week. He did finish T-15th at Valhalla in 2014 and will be a good pick this week. Russell Henley at $7,300, is also a great choice; makes a lot of cuts and finds the top ten after the fifth start. The same with Akshay Bhatia at $7,200, he won at the Valero Texas Open on a course just like Valhalla. One great pick is Alex Noren at $7,200. He has made his last 16 cuts and has had some excellent finishes, like his 3rd at the Byron Nelson. Matthieu Pavon is just $6,800 and has proven to play well on challenging courses; he was T-12th at the Masters. Cam Davis at $6,600, is a great player at this price for making lots of cuts and finding the top 25. Tom Hoge at $6,400 is another cheap choice that makes a lot of cuts and can get you many points this week. The same is true with Denny McCarthy at $6,300; he was T-6th last week at Wells Fargo and will play well this week. Phil Mickelson at $6,100 is a big gamble, but he has played great all the time he has played at Valhalla. Taylor Pendrith at $6,000, is also good, and has been in the top 11 in his last four starts.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Valhalla:

Key stat of the week

• It’s really sad, but the big thing of the week could be poor weather. Just look at the long-range forecast, and you can see that each day will be very wet, and storms could roll in and cause many delays. So, patience will be needed this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Important to see who is the best total driver of the ball going into the week and then checking to see who hits the most greens on the PGA Tour.
• There is a need for patience. This is one of those courses where par is your friend, so don’t look for low scoring.
• Does a non-marquee guy have a chance this week? Last year was the story of Club pro Michael Block, and the big question is, is there another story like that out there? I don’t think so, and frankly, the days of John Daly, Y.E. Yang, Rich Beem, and Shaun Micheel winning are over. Our winner will be a big name.