BlogCharles Schwab Challenge Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Championship gave us a lot of great stories, from Xander Schauffele finally winning a major to Bryson DeChambeau showing how much we miss him. There was also Viktor Hovland’s comeback and Colin Morikawa’s final-round collapse. Many will wonder how one of the nicest and most unassuming people like Scottie Scheffler can get arrested and how Rory McIlroy can separate from his wife.

Xander Schauffele

Hard to believe that this was his 28th major, and with 12 top-ten finishes, Schauffele had earned the reputation as the best active player not to win a major. But Schauffele shattered that curse, and he did it fabulously. When he opened with a 62, many went back to last year’s U.S. Open, where he opened with a 62 but shot 70-73-72 to finish T-10. Since Johnny Miller shot the first 63 in a major at the 1973 U.S. Open, there have been 41 63s and four 62s. But going low doesn’t mean winning. In 45 times, the lowest score has been shot in a major, and Xander has won 11 times. But Xander goes down as the first 62 shoot on the way to winning a major.

Xander’s victory was won in total and in the toughest of conditions. Leading for 71 holes since making birdie on his second hole, Xander was briefly caught out when he bogeyed the 10th in the final round but came back with back-to-back birdies on 11 and 12 to regain control. But when Bryson DeChambeau went birdie-par-birdie, Schauffele had to come back and make birdie on the final hole. That’s pressure enough, but Schauffele didn’t realize this was a three-hole playoff, not sudden death. Playing the 18th hole, Schauffele realized that DeChambeau had made birdie and was tied with him, and he was worried that a sudden death playoff on a short par 5 was close to instant death for him going up against DeChambeau and the length of his drives. That made birdie a must, which he did with a five-footer on the final hole.

The big question is, will winning a big tournament, a major, help Xander in the future? We ask that question every time somebody wins, but in Xander’s case, it takes the monkey off his back, and I think it will open the doors for more wins in the future.

Bryson DeChambeau

I was never a big fan of DeChambeau.  When I was on tour more before the pandemic, DeChambeau was a course person. He was self-centered and someone you didn’t want to be around. He went to LIV Golf for two reasons: he was injured and didn’t know if his game was coming back. At the same time, he was offered a lot of money to join LIV golf; it was easy to take the money and run. Now that we have seen DeChambeau be a part of the two majors on Sunday this year, and he has been very gracious, we miss him. With DeChambeau’s length and great feel around the greens, he can win a lot of majors. DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka were injured and didn’t know their futures when LIV Golf came calling. They got paid a lot of money and gave LIV Golf a good show. Both contracts are for three years, and since both are playing well again, they have made millions; it may be time to return to the PGA Tour. We can only hope that this is the case because we have seen that the PGA Tour missed Jon Rahm, DeChambeau, and Koepka. The next few months will be very interesting, with the big question at the end of the year being whether the Saudis will have to pay another billion dollars to keep LIV Golf afloat for a fourth year. Or they can make a deal with all the tours or just shut it all down.

Viktor Hovland

We have documented Viktor Hovland’s last nine months. After an incredible 2023, where he won the last two playoff events and the FedEx Cup, many were expecting great things from Hovland. His game was sharp, and between his swing coach, Joe Mayo, and Hovland, they fixed his weakness around the green. But for some strange reason, the two parted ways in the off-season as Hovland wanted to do some things differently than Mayo was offering. After a great Ryder Cup, where Hovland went 3-1-1, he went home and did things without Mayo, thinking he could get better. He started working with Grant Waite and Dana Dahiquist, and they had different ideas on how Hovland should swing the club. Things didn’t work out, and Hovland was completely lost and didn’t know who to trust. With stuff in shambles, Hovland picked up the phone and called Mayo, and they got back together at the Masters. Things were a little better as he had an opening round of 71 but shot 81 in the second round. But Mayo and Hovland worked things out, and with rounds of 68-66-66-66, he finished 3rd, just three shots behind Schauffele. The good news is his game is back, and he will have a great summer and be in many tournaments for the rest of the year.

Other odds and ends from the PGA Championship

I was disappointed with the way Colin Morikawa played on Sunday. He was a perfect choice for Sunday; in the past, at the 2000 PGA and 2001 British Open, Morikawa got the job done. We know about his poor putting, but he is hard to beat when he gets it going. But he was easy to beat on Sunday as he parred his first 14 holes, made a bogey at 15, and then birdied just one hole, 18, to shoot 71 and fall into a tie for fourth, six shots back of Xander. We will see more of Morikawa in the coming weeks and think he will win in 2024.

So, could things have been different if Scottie Scheffler hadn’t gotten arrested? Honestly, I feel like he was flying blind after the birth of his son, and all of this would have caught up with him. So, what does that mean for this week at Colonial? I think the course is perfect for him, and he will be good and compete on Sunday.

What about the news that Rory McIlroy is getting a divorce? It’s always a shame to hear this kind of news, especially when a child is involved. But it makes sense; Rory’s game was not sharp, and something bothered him. We now know what it is. I can tell you that in 2014, Rory struggled with his game at the beginning of the season. At the time, he was engaged to tennis star Caroline Wozniacki, and everyone thought they were the perfect couple. People were shocked when he allegedly dumped her during a three-minute phone call and called off the wedding just weeks before the big day. Shortly after the breakup, McIlroy won the BMW PGA Championship and then two months later won the British Open, the WGC-Bridgestone, and the PGA Championship in a four-week span. With all that’s happened, don’t be surprised if Rory goes on a run this summer.

Last but not least, Jon Rahm

I hope he is enjoying his $500 million, according to many people. Jon has told some people he is taking a year off from the PGA Tour. But the funny thing is that the best players in the world are creatures of habit, so they play in most of the same events and keep the same schedule year in and year out. The transition between the PGA Tour and LIV golf hasn’t been great for Rahm, and it shows. Rahm had played in 30 consecutive majors heading into the PGA Championship. Since missing the cut at the 2019 PGA Championship, Rahm has been on a roll. He won twice in 18 majors and finished outside the top 25 only five times. He didn’t play well at the Masters last month, finishing T-45th. At the PGA Championship, he started with four bogeys in the first five holes on Thursday and salvaged the round by playing the last six holes in four under for a 70. But his indifferent game showed on Friday, and he didn’t have a back nine to save him, shooting 72 and missing his first major cut in five years (in 19 starts). Since Rahm joined LIV Golf, his game hasn’t been the best; he had a couple of chances to win but didn’t produce the right shot at the right time. I think he’s uncomfortable with things; frankly, I don’t see it getting any better. I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses the cut at the U.S. Open, the British Open, or both. He looks unhappy, and I have to think, for Rahm, what is more important, winning and playing well in the majors or getting $500 million to play poorly? For most humans, that question is loaded; $500 million is life-changing, and for many, they would take the money and run. We must wait and see what happens in the next few months.

A person to consider at Colonial that nobody will see

Going into the Charles Schwab, you must think that the dark horse will be Justin Rose. He has always been a consistent player. One of the things that has held him back has been his back, which has been a problem for five years. But Rose has worked hard to figure out how to swing the club to avoid problems; he had a productive year last year. This year has been challenging, and going into the PGA Championship, Rose’s best finish in 2024 was T-11th at Pebble. But things turned around when he finished T-6 at the PGA Championship. It was his fifth top-15 finish in his last five PGA Championships. Last year, he finished T-9 at Oak Hill, the site of the PGA Championship. He flew to Dallas from Oak Hill and T-12th at the Charles Schwab. Rose won the 2018 Charles Schwab, and frankly, the course is perfect for him, so watch him.

Things you need to know about The Charles Schwab Challenge and Colonial:

This is the 77th year of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Commonly referred to as the Colonial National, it’s not the oldest event on the PGA Tour in longevity. Several events have been played longer. As for the same course, Augusta National and the Masters can claim to have been played on the same course longer on the PGA Tour, with Colonial being the second longest length a course has been used for a tournament. Colonial does have one distinction: it’s the only course in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975), and the U.S. Women’s Open (1991).

The tournament started in 1946 when it became apparent that the USGA wasn’t going to make Colonial an annual stop. John Marvin Leonard, who operated a store in downtown Fort Worth, inspired the event and wanted to see the best golfers in the world play on his course. Having Ben Hogan win its first two events gave the event and the course the recognition they needed.

Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course got the name “Hogan’s Alley.” At one time, Hogan practically held every record of the tournament. In the 21 times, Hogan played at Colonial, his highest finish was a T-56th in his last appearance in 1970 at the age of 58. Over Hogan’s career, he won 54 tournaments, with the previous victory coming in the 1959 Colonial. One of Hogan’s most enduring records at Colonial was the 65 he shot in the 3rd round in 1948. It took seven years for someone to tie the record when Chandler Harper did it in 1955, and it took 22 years for someone to beat the record when Dale Douglass did it with his 63 in 1970. Hogan loved Colonial and became a due-paying member of the club. So it’s no surprise that the greatest of Ben Hogan’s life and golf career is celebrated in the Hogan Room with an audio-visual presentation of his career and some memories, including clubs and replicas of all the trophies and medals.

The history of Ben Hogan and Colonial didn’t start with his win in 1946. It was started in the early 1930s when a young Ben Hogan decided to play on the PGA Tour. He received financial backing from Marvin Leonard, the man who built Colonial. Hogan wasn’t a big success; he was often forced to drop off the tour and take a job to earn enough money to rejoin the tour. However, as soon as Hogan began making money on tour, he offered to settle his account with Leonard, who told him to forget about the money. However, in the 1950s, Hogan was able to pay back Leonard in an even bigger way. After Hogan launched the Ben Hogan golf equipment company, he offered Leonard the opportunity to purchase 50 percent of the company. Leonard seized the opportunity and, along with Hogan, made a handsome profit when the company was sold to AMF in 1960.

The Colonial Country Club was the vision of Leonard, a native of Fort Worth. He was considered a “workaholic” in the 1920s when his doctor told him he needed to slow down his pace. Leonard turned to golf and joined Glen Garden Golf Club and Rivercrest Country Club, the best courses of the time in Fort Worth. As Leonard’s interest in golf grew, he became more interested in all aspects of the course, including the types of grass. In the South, Bentgrass was thought impossible to grow, so all of the courses in Texas were Bermuda, which tended to be bumpy. Leonard thought it would be a good idea to have bent grass, and in trying to get Rivercrest to change, the club president got tired of the requests and told him, Marvin, if you’re so sold on bentgrass, why don’t you go build your own golf course and put it on that course?” So, in 1934, Leonard did just that.

He acquired 157 acres in Southwest Fort Worth and hired golf architect John Bredemus to build him a championship course. On January 29, 1936, the course was opened, and many thought it could be one of the most magnificent courses in the world. In the late 30s, Leonard felt Colonial was the best and lobbied the USGA to hold the U.S. Open at Colonial. Even though the Open was never played in the South, when Leonard offered $25,000 to hold the event at Colonial, it was given the 1941 Open. To ensure that the course withstood the challenge of the best players in the world in 1940, he called in Perry Maxwell to redo holes 3, 4 & 5.

Even with the rain that hampered the Open, it was a big success, and plans to start a yearly tournament at Colonial were discussed, but plans were put on hold because of World War II. When the war ended, the club decided to hold the Colonial National Invitational and, to add some prestige, offered a purse of $15,000, the third-largest sum on the PGA Tour. With a first-place check of $3,000 awaiting the winner, a field of 32 players teed off with Ben Hogan winning. Since then, 76 Colonials have been held with the course as it was in 1941, with minor revisions that were implemented in 1969 when several holes along the Trinity River were damaged by flooding.

One of the most significant distinctions of the Charles Schwab is the number of great players who have won it. In the 76 years of this event, 62 different players have won. Of those 62, 30 have won a major championship, and out of all the winners, 16 are in the World Golf Hall of Fame, so this event has an incredible resume of past champions. Every great shotmaker from the last 76 years has won at Colonial (except Tiger Woods). The list includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Roberto De Vicenzo, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Justin Rose, Ben Crenshaw, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson to name a few.

This event almost was lost when tournament host Dean & Deluca begged out of their sponsorship a few years early. Frankly, when I heard that Dean & Deluca was sponsoring a tournament in Texas, it made no sense. You see, Dean & Deluca is a bunch of high-end grocery stores like Whole Foods or Wegmans, but mainly in New York. They were planning on putting one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, but when those plans went away, so did Dean & Deluca on the PGA Tour. As we can see, with tournaments like Houston, you could be rolling along in great shape, but then your sponsor decides it’s not worth the $10 or $12 million-a-year investment, and that event is in trouble. The good news is that Colonial found a new sponsor in time for 2018, and Charles Schwab will continue on the PGA Tour as they have signed on to 2026.

Course information:

• Colonial Country Club
• Fort Worth, Texas
• 7,289 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The Colonial has a 75.1 rating and a slope rating of 138 from the championship tees. The course is very private. The tees, Fairways, and rough are Bermuda Grass while the greens are Bent.
• It was designed and built by John Bredemus, with Perry Maxwell doing some touch-up work, and opened in 1936.  There were some minor revisions in 1969 to some of the holes to prevent flooding from the nearby Trinity River.
• In 2000, the club completed a two-year course renovation, which started in November of 1998 when they installed a new irrigation system.  The primary work was done in rebuilding all 18 greens with new A-4 bentgrass.  They also redesigned and rebuilt all 84 bunkers, giving them a new definition so that they will be seen from tees and fairways.
• All of the green and bunker work were done three weeks after the 1999 tournament ended, with the membership not having the full course reopen until April 1st of 2000. The club has also planted close to a hundred trees that won’t be in play but in years to come, will help define the holes.
• We usually don’t talk about technology in golf, but when we talk about Colonial, one of the reasons for it losing its fear factor is technology.  Colonial is one of golf’s treasured layouts that can’t keep up with technology.  The course sits next to the Trinty River on the north and houses on the East, South, and West of it, so there is no way to add any yardage.  So the course is at the mercy of mother nature, if it gets windy the course will play tough, but if not it’s easy.  We go more into detail on this later.
• This course for years was feared by all the touring pros; if you look at the winning score pre-1996, you saw years in which the winner was 7, 8, 9, and 10 under.  However, starting in 1997, every year but two (8 under in 1999 and 9 under in 2014) saw scores in the double digits for the winners showing how easy the course got.
• One advantage the course has is being short. Most of the holes at Colonial are doglegs, so the driver is taken out of the hands of players, which means most of the holes you have to lay up, meaning more players hit more fairways.
• One thing the day after Emiliano Grillo won last year, the course was completely torn up and redone by Gil Hansen.  Normally it takes 18 months to do this job, but they completely rebuilt and reseeded all of the fairways and greens.  It will be interesting to see the reaction on the new renovations.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Colonial.

This is based on Colonial’s most important stats, based on data from last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and data from all players in the field with 2024 stats. We take their rank for each statistic and then add up the four categories.
Colonial Country Club is a relic of a bygone era, where accuracy off the tee makes precision shotmaking on the greens essential. On top of that, when the course is dry with firm fairways and greens, add some wind, and it can play tough, as it has in recent years. But with no or little wind, along with dry conditions, you will see a lot of birdies and eagles, which has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course. In years past, you have yet to see the long ball hitters of the gameplay. This year, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Champ, Byeong Hun An, Wyndham Clark, and Kevin Dougherty, the top five in driving distance, are missing this year.
Now, Bryson DeChambeau has shown the vulnerability of Colonial Country Club in 2020. DeChambeau could fly over the trees and cut off the doglegs with his newfound power. Over four days at Colonial Country Club, DeChambeau flexed his muscles with 19 drives of 330 yards or more. DeChambeau missed a short putt on the 17th for bogey, and by the end of the day, he was one shot behind in a playoff with Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa. DeChambeau laid the groundwork for an all-out assault on Colonial Country Club. Surprisingly, after what happened in 2020, DeChambeau did not return to Colonial with him on LIV.

Every great shotmaker in the last 75 years has won at Colonial (except Tiger Woods, as Justin Rose was added to the list in 2018), including Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson, to name a few. When looking at the key to playing well at Colonial, the most important statistic is ball striking (which the PGA Tour doesn’t include in course stats). Looking at the list for 2024, the odds of a player finishing in the top 30 of this list will finish at the top this week. Check out the list of players in the field this week: Scottie Scheffler (1st), Tony Finau (7th), Kevin Yu (7th), Keith Mitchell (10th), Daniel Berger (T-12th), Rafael Campos (15th), Aaron Rai (17th), Vincent Norrman (18th), Harris English (22nd) and Taylor Moore (23rd) to name those in the top 25.
So, who will win this week? I can tell you this: it will be a guy with much conditioning and a sharp iron. Look at the last 2022 winner, Sam Burns, who fits the bill perfectly when you see that Burns was 1st in Strokes Gained Total at Colonial. So why is this so important in an era where overpowered courses are the norm? Only after the new renovation was there room to add yardage at Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players must throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. This is why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms, Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, and Daniel Berger have won this event.
How does Gil Hanse’s renovation change that this year? He added 80 yards from last year, primarily by moving the greens around. Here are the holes that gained yardage:

• 1st – par 5 Went from 565 to 581, adding 16 yards
  2nd – par 4 Went from 389 to 385, 4 yards shorter
  3rd – par 4 Went from 483 to 475, 8 yards shorter
  4th – par 3 Went from 247 to 248, adding 1 yardage
  5th – par 4 Went from 481 to 476, 5 yards shorter
  6th – par 4 Went from 406 to 410, adding 4 yards
  7th – par 4 Went from 440 to 480, adding 40 yards
  8th – par 3 Went from 199 to 194, 5 yards shorter
  9th – par 4 Went from 407 to 413, 1 yard shorter
  Front nine went from 3,617 to 3,662 with 45 yards added, 40 of that on the 7th hole
  10th – par 4 Went from 408 to 407, 1 yard shorter
  11th – par 5 Went from 635 to 639, adding 4 yards
  12th – par 4 Went from 445 to 457, adding 12 yards
  13th – par 3 Went from 190 to 199, adding 9 yards
  14th – par 4 Went from 464 to 456, 8 yards shorter
  15th – par 4 Went from 430 to 431, adding 1 yard
  16th – par 3 Went from 192 to 197, adding 5 yards
  17th – par 4 Went from 387 to 399, adding 12 yards
  18th – par 4 Went from 441 to 442, adding 1 yard
  Back nine went from 3,592 to 3,627, adding 35 yards

The renovations added little to the yardage, 80 yards, with 40 of them on the 7th hole. Another thing Hanse should have done was remove any trees, which is becoming a big deal with course renovations. So what Hanse did was add a few yards, ever so slightly. Seven of the holes are now shorter than last year. So where is the change?

Hanse took it back to the way it was when the course opened in 1736. He moved most of the 27 fairway bunkers, so they come into play more. Hanse also significantly changed the par-3 holes, altering the 8th, 13th and 16th. On the 8th, he moved the green 30 yards to the left, bringing the creek back into play on the left side. The other change that will be widely recognized is the removal of the concrete spillway that runs from the par-3 16th and intersects between the 17th and 18th fairways. The stream will still be part of the drama on the home stretch. Hanse moved the 16th green to the left to put the creek into play. Water now guards the left and right sides of the green.
He left the famous “Horrible Horseshoe,” holes three, four, and five, untouched.
The biggest changes were cosmetic. He redid all the greens, again using photos from the early days of the course to make them look like they did in the 1930s and 1940s. They also installed a system that runs cold water under the greens to help preserve the bend during the hot summer months.
When the players return this week, they will be surprised to see a course that looks like it did in the past. However, the course will have more hazards that will come into play and make scoring tougher.

The scoring Average of the Colonial field last year was 70.73, and it was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour out of the 58 courses charted in 2023.

Here is a look at the scoring averages at Colonial over the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 70.72; it was the 11th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
*2021 – Averaged 70.21, was the 18th hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Averaged 69.57, was the 13th hardest of 41 courses that year. It played three-quarters of a shot easier at 69.57, mainly because it was played a month later when the course was dry with no wind. That is the key to this course. When there is no wind, it plays much easier, but when there is wind, as in 2019, it played to a 70.86 and was the 7th hardest course of the year.
*2019 – Averaged 70.86, was 7th hardest of 49 courses that year.
*2018 – With favorable wind conditions and a soft course, it played to a 69.83 average, T-20th in course rankings.
*2017 – Colonial played to an average of 71.15 (lots of wind every day), making it the 7th hardest course on tour that year as the course played over a shot over par per round.
*2016 – Colonial played to an average of 70.20, making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter shot over par and almost half a shot harder than the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015.
So why the difference? There was rain and wind in 2015; the week before the tournament, there were flooding conditions, and the course was very wet. On top of that, the wind averaged between 10-15 mph.
In 2016, the course received less rain, and the winds blew up to 20 mph for the first three days, then died down a bit for the final round.
But in 2017, the wind blew around 20 mph daily, making the course very tough to play, the toughest since 2002, when the course averaged 71.21 and ranked sixth on the tour.
As we can see, Mother Nature and the wind dictate how tough each Charles Schwab Challenge will be.
The big question is, with the renovations, how tough will Colonial play in 2024? Prior to 1990, with the advent of metal drivers, better irons, and golf balls, Colonial was considered one of the toughest non-major events of the year. Between 1970 and 1989, the average winning score was 7 under par. Between 1990 and 2023, the average winning score was 13 under par.

So, with thunderstorms on Thursday, conditions getting better each day, Sunday being sunny, and temperatures around 92 each day, this would set up for low scoring. But Mother Nature will help, as the wind will be blowing between 13 and 15 mph, making conditions more difficult.
Still, with the renovations, we will see a tougher course with the winning score in the 7 to 12 under range.

When looking at our four categories, fairway accuracy is critical. In 2022, Colonial was the 13th hardest course to get to the fairway, while 2022 winner Sam Burns was 38th in fairway accuracy. Our second statistic is greens in Regulation; last year, Colonial ranked 5th, while winner Emiliano Grillo ranked T-8th in this statistic, hitting 47 of 72 greens. Since 2001, five winners have led this statistic, showing its importance. In the last seven years, Kevin Na and Justin Rose led the stat; in 2017, Kevin Kisner was 2nd, while Berger was T-4th in 2020.
Our third statistic is Par Breakers. Last year, Colonial was 1st overall, while Grillo and Burns were both 1st in this stat. Our final stat is Strokes Gained Putting, as Grillo and Burns were 6th in this stat. Since Colonial doesn’t keep track of this stat on a tournament basis, I can tell you this: six of the last 22 winners have led in total strokes, so putting is very important.
So if the weather is perfect, you’re not going to have a “non-marquee” type of winner; the man who wins on Sunday will be a player who has won before and won many times on the PGA Tour. To give you an idea of how important this is, since 1990, only one winner has never won on the PGA Tour, and that was Sergio Garcia, who had won twice on the European Tour.

Driving is essential, so our first category combines driving distance but mostly driving accuracy for the Charles Schwab. In 2023, the course ranked 7th on the PGA Tour in driving distance (all holes) and 25th in driving accuracy (out of 58 courses). Winner Emiliano Grillo ranked T-53rd in driving distance (all holes) and T-25th in driving accuracy (34 of 56).

Here is a look at the driving Average at Charles Schwab for the last few years:
*2022 – Colonial ranked 1st in driving distance and 13th in driving accuracy.
Winner Sam Burns was 12th in driving distance and T-38th (30 of 56) in accuracy.
*2021 –Colonial ranked 5th in driving distance and 16th in driving accuracy.
Winner Jason Kokrak was 8th in driving distance and 4th (41 of 56) in accuracy.
*2020 – Colonial ranked 8th in driving distance and 15th in driving accuracy.
Winner Daniel Berger was 24th in driving distance and T-17th (35 of 56) in accuracy.
*2019 – Colonial ranked 13th in driving distance and 3rd in driving accuracy.
Winner Kevin Na was 55th in driving distance and T-17th (34 of 56) in accuracy.
So driving it far and straight is important.

Our second category Greens in Regulation is a critical one for Colonial: getting the ball close to the hole from the fairway. If you look at the winners at Colonial, hitting the greens is something all the winners have in common. Since 2017, seven of the seven have finished in the top eight, and 12 of the 27 have finished in the top five. Additionally, over the past 27 years, five winners have led greens in Regulation.
Last year, Colonial ranked 5th out of 58 courses in Greens in Regulation as the field hit 57.51% of the greens. Last year’s winner, Emiliano Grillo, hit 47 of 72 greens (70.83%) for a T-8th place finish.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation at the Charles Schwab over the years:
2022 – Greens in Regulation was 59.59%, the 15th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
Winner Sam Burns hit 48 of 72 greens (66.67%) and finished T-7th.
2021 – Greens in Regulation was 61.27%, the 15th hardest of the 51 courses this year.
Winner Jason Kokrak shot 54 of 72 (75.00%) and finished 2nd.
2020 – Greens in Regulation was 67.45%, the 24th hardest of 41 courses this year.
Winner Daniel Berger hit 56 of 72 greens (77.78%) and finished T-4th.
2019 – Greens in Regulation was 60.17%, the 8th hardest of the 49 courses this year.
Winner Kevin Na hit 56 of 72 greens (77.78%) and finished 1st.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

Our third category is Par Breakers because making eagles and birdies is essential. Last year, Charles Schwab had 1,079 birdies, tied for 3rd in birdie average, and 12 eagles, tied for 5th. Winner Emiliano Grillo was T-1st in the field with 18 birdies and T-2nd with an eagle. He was 1st in Par Breakers with 26.39%.

Here is a look at the Par Breakers of the Charles Schwab winners in recent years:
2022 – Made 1,114 birdies (19th hardest) and 19 eagles (T-12th) as 19.70% of holes were under par, making it the 9th hardest of the 50 courses that year.
Winner Sam Burns made 20 birdies (his best) but no eagles, as 27.78% of the holes were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
2021 – Made 1,230 birdies (21st toughest) and 14 eagles (T-5th) as 17.77% of holes played were under par, making it the 10th toughest of the 51 courses that year.
Winner Jason Kokrak made 23 birdies (best) but had no eagles as 31.94% of the holes were under par, ranking him 1st in Par Breakers.
2020 – Made 1,489 birdies (27th toughest) and had 20 eagles (9th) as 19.50% of holes played were under par, making it the 12th toughest of the 41 courses this year.
Winner Daniel Berger made 22 birdies (T-2nd) but had no eagles. As 30.56% of holes were played under par, he ranked T-2nd in Par Breakers.
2019 – Made 1,111 birdies (16th hardest) and 12 eagles (4th) as 16.20% of the holes played were under par, making it the 3rd hardest of the 49 courses that year.
Winner Kevin Na made 17 birdies (T-2nd) and one eagle, and 25.00% of holes were played under par, ranking him second in Par Breakers.
So the winner will have to make a lot of birdies and eagles.

Our final category is Strokes Gained Putting.
We chose this statistic because most past Charles Schwab winners are notoriously good putters. Last year, Colonial ranked T-19th in putting average, 46th in one-putt percentage, 253rd in three-putt Avoidance, and 37th in putting inside ten feet, making 89.27% of his putts in that range.
Last year’s winner, Emiliano Grillo, ranked 4th in Putting Average, T-18th in One-Putt Percentage, T-22nd in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-62nd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 59 of 68 putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting, with 7.439 strokes gained.

Here is a look at Colonial’s putting stats and the Charles Schwab winners over the past few years:
2022 – Colonial ranked T-17th in Putting Average, 34th in One-Putt Percentage, 31st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 12th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 87.51% of their putts in this range.
Winner Sam Burns, one of the best putters in golf, ranked 4th in Putting Average, T-8th in One-Putt Percentage, T-55th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 9th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 65 of 71 putts in this range. With all these stats, it is no surprise that he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting with a 5.033 Strokes Gained.
2021 – Colonial ranked 29th in Putting Average, 37th in One-Putt Percentage, 47th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 34th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 88.81% of his putts in this range.
Winner Jason Kokrak ranked T-9th in Putting Average, T-19th in One-Putt Percentage, T-45th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 10th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 60 of 64 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, with 5.501 strokes gained.
2020 – Colonial ranked 27th in Putting Average, 22nd in One-Putt Percentage, 30th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 21st in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 88.24% of his putts in this range.
Winner Daniel Berger ranked 8th in Putting Average, T-11th in One-Putt Percentage, T-445th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 62nd in Putting Inside ten feet, making 56 of 66 putts in this range. With these stats, he was 8th in Strokes Gained Putting, with 5.168 strokes gained.
2019 – Colonial ranked T-12th in Putting Average, 30th in One-Putt Percentage, 37th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 27th in Putting Inside ten feet, as he made 88.41% of the putts in this range.
Winner Kevin Na ranked 5th in Putting Average, T-25th in One-Putt Percentage, T-1st in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-12th in Putting Inside Ten Feet, making 61 of 66 putts in that range. With these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting with 7.033 strokes.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so parbreakers are the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 122 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the start of the 2023 season and going through the 2024 PGA Championship, a total of 76 events. The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. Out of the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $13,300
• Collin Morikawa – $11,000
• Jordan Spieth – $10,600
• Max Homa – $10,400
• Tony Finau – $10,400
• Min Woo Lee – $9,700
• Si Woo Kim – $9,600
• Brian Harman – $9,500
• Sungjae Im – $9,400
• Tom Hoge – $9,300
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Harris English – $9,000

Off the bat we have to make a decision on Scottie Scheffler at $13,300.  As I wrote above, he has had a lot of things happen to him in the last few weeks but no matter what his price, most of the times he gets the job done and racks up a lot of points.  Last year he was T-3rd, in 2022 was 2nd and all year has played great, don’t see any reason not to pick him other than the high price.  Collin Morikawa at $11,000 is showing his game is shaping up, yes the price is high but he could be on the cusp of winning.  Jordan Spieth at $10,600 had a great record in this event until missing the cut last year.  He has been very inconsistent since Phoenix and with his wrist being a possible problem, I say no on him.  Max Homa at $10,400 I don’t know what direction to go on him, his game is up and down like a rollor-coaster.  His record hasn’t been great at Colonial until finishing T-9th last year.  I am taking a pass on him.  Tony Finau at $10,400 is another person that is hard to gauge, one week his game is good and the next not that great.  He has played well at Colonial, but he did miss the cut last year.  I think that Min Woo Lee priced at $9,700 is too high and not worth the cost.  The same with Si Woo Kim at $9,600, he has never played well at Colonial and for the year he has a lot of top 25 finishes, but nothing worth the price of $9,600.  Brian Harman at $9,500 is another player that really isn’t worth the cost and hasn’t played that great other than his runner-up at the Players.  Boy this is getting worst that a broken record but Sungjae Im at $9,400 is a no for me.  Has never been great at Colonial, but he has had some good finishes like T-4th at Wells Fargo.  But the next week missed the cut at the PGA Championship.  Tom Hoge at $9,300 is also a no, priced to high never played well at Colonial and not been great the last two months.  Adam Scott at $9,200 did win Colonial but that was ten years ago.  He makes a lot of top 25s, but the price is too high for a top 25 finish.  Harris English at $9,000 is also a no, hasn’t played great since February and he did finish runner-up at Colonial but that was 8 years ago.

Here is our feature in which we help you decide which guys make the cut the most in a tournament.  The importance of picking six players that play 72 holes is vital in playing well in Draftkings, and this list will help.  It’s a look going back to the Colonial going back to 2005 on who has made the most cuts.  Of course, those who make a lot of cuts and are priced low are very helpful.  To get on this list, you have to make at least three Colonial starts:

• Adam Scott made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,200.
• Ben Martin made 6 cuts in 6 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 5,900.
• Mark Hubbard made 5 cuts in 5 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Collin Morikawa made 4 cuts in 4 starts for a 100.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 11,000.
• Charley Hoffman made 13 cuts in 14 starts for a 92.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 6,600.
• Chris Kirk made 12 cuts in 13 starts for a 92.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,400.
• Jordan Spieth made 10 cuts in 11 starts for a 90.9%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,600.
• Tony Finau made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 10,400.
• Emiliano Grillo made 7 cuts in 8 starts for a 87.5%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Justin Rose made 6 cuts in 7 starts for a 85.7%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,500.
• Brian Harman made 9 cuts in 11 starts for a 81.8%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,500.
• Billy Horschel made 5 cuts in 6 starts for a 83.3%.  His DraftKings cost is 8,800.
• Maverick McNealy made 4 cuts in 5 starts for a 80.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,700.
• Scottie Scheffler made 3 cuts in 4 starts for a 75,0%.  His DraftKings cost is 13,300
• Harris English made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 9,000.
• Brendon Todd made 6 cuts in 8 starts for a 75.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,000.
• Rickie Fowler made 7 cuts in 10 starts for a 70.0%.  His DraftKings cost is 7,600.

(Those that I like are in bold)

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Billy Horschel at $8,800 has played well of late, he hasn’t done anything great at Colonial but his game is sharp now.  Justin Rose at $8,500 is a very good bet, played well last week at the PGA and Colonial has great memories from winning in 2018.  Chris Kirk at $8,400 has not played great since winning at the Sentry, but his has played well at Colonial.  Tom Kim at $8,200 is a good bet, has never played at Colonial but the course suits his game.  Thomas Detry at $8,000 is a good bet because he was T-21st in his first Charles Schwab last year and has three top tens in his last five starts.  Akshay Bhatia at $7,900 is also worth picking, he returns to Texas where he won a few months back.  Aaron Rai at $7,800 is worth it, has found a way to play well and last year was T-12th at Colonial.  Daniel Berger at $7,800 is worth a look since his record is good at Colonial.  Maverick McNealy at $7,700 is worth it since he makes a lot of cuts and is price right for that.  The same with Rickie Fowler at $7,600, has made a lot of cuts and was T-6th last year at Colonial.  Davis Thompson at $7,600 is also a guy that has found his game and should play well in his first Charles Schwab.  Also ie Rickie Fowler at $7,600, he hasn’t played great but hasn’t played bad.  Think course will suit his game and he will do well this week.

Any bargains out there?

Lucas Glover at $7,500 makes a lot of cuts and has played well at Colonial the last few years.  Ryan Fox at $7,300 is a good buy, he will make the cut and get you a lot of points.  Emiliano Grillo at $7,100 is a good buy, he won last year after missing the cut at the PGA.  Guess what he did at Valhalla, he missed the cut and has played well the rest of the year.  Robert MacIntyre at $7,000 is well worth the price, has played well of late including finishing T-8th at the PGA Championship.  Charley Hoffman at $6,600 has been one of the most consistent players at Colonial and well worth the price this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Charles Schwab Challenge:

Key stat for the winner:

• Experience at Colonial seems to be an essential part of winning.  Since 1996, 25 players have won at Colonial and have a total of 281 victories, so that means an average of 12.2 wins for each of the champions.  Last year’s winner Emiliano Grillo won twice, 2022 winner Sam Burns won four times, Jason Kokrak won twice, Daniel Berger and 2019 champion Kevin Na won for the 3rd time and all won again within six months, Kokrak at Houston, Berger at the AT&T and Na at the Shriners Hospitals.  2018 winner Justin Rose won three other times after winning the Colinial, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the 8th time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.  In 2012 Zach Johnson won for the 8th time in his career as winners range from Tom Watson with 34 wins and Nick Price with 18 to Sergio Garcia who made Colonial his first PGA Tour win in 2001.  The fact is rookies don’t win at Colonial.  Yes, Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour win at Colonial but he had won in Europe.  The same with the next first-time winner Ian Baker-Finch in 1989, he had won in Australia.  In looking at the 76-year history of the Charles Schwab, only eight first winners have done the deed, that tells us to look for an experienced person to win.

Another key:

• Look at all of the champions; you will see one thing in common, they are accurate drivers of the ball, which historically has been very important in winning at Colonial.  The bottom line is wild drivers don’t win here.  Now, of course, there is always an exception to the rule, last year Emiliano Grillo hit 34 fairways and ranked T-25th.  In 2016 Jordan Spieth only hit 38 fairways and ranked T-54th.  The previous year Chris Kirk only hit 28 fairways and ranked T-60th while in 2007 Rory Sabbatini only hit 29 fairways and ranked T60th.   However, in 2020 Daniel Berger was T-17th, the same with Kevin Na. In 2018 Justin Rouse was 6th in driving accuracy, in 2017 Kevin Kisner hit 40 fairways and ranked 1st getting us back to the era of between 1998 and 2005 when all the winners didn’t rank higher than 9th in fairway accuracy, with seven of them being in the top-five. Driving accuracy is still critical in winning this event.
• An important stat to look at to gauge the champion this week is strokes gained tee-to-green. Look at this list of players for 2024 in strokes gained tee-to-green, I feel that one of those in the top-30 of this list will probably be the winner this week.  1st on the list is Scottie Scheffler, 5th on the list is So Woo Kim, 7th on the list is Keith Mitchell, 9th on the list is Tony Finau and 11th on the list is Lucas Glover.
• Shot-making is almost a lost art, and if you look at all of the champions in this millennium, all of them were great shotmakers.