BlogRBC Canadian Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s back to Hamilton Golf & C.C., the course that hosted the first post-World War I Canadian Open in 1919 and the fifth Canadian Open since 2003.  The course is a hidden gem, consistently ranked in the top five of Canada’s best courses.

The only problem is the weak field. Of course, when we saw that the tour moved this event a week later, then making a three-tournament run between the Memorial, U.S. Open, and Travelers, with one major and two designated events, would spell this weak field. This will only make matters worse with its sponsor, RBC, keeping them involved with this event and the one in Hilton Head.

RBC Canadian Open

First played in 1904, only the British Open, U.S. Open and BMW (old Western Open) are older.  To think that 110 have been played, the good news with a great sponsor of RBC, along with a list of great courses that will hold the tournament, this will turn into a more important tournament in future years.

Course information:

• Hamilton Golf & Country Club
• Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
• 7,084 yards     Par 35-35–70

This year’s Canadian Open returns to Hamilton Golf & C.C., a private course just 45 minutes outside of Toronto. One of Canada’s most prestigious and historic clubs, Hamilton Golf and Country Club is one of the 10 founding clubs of the Royal Canadian Golf Association. Opened in October 1894, the original 12-hole course was located next to the Hamilton Jockey Club. After only one full season, the club moved to a new 18-hole course at the foot of the escarpment in west Hamilton, then moved again in 1916, this time to its permanent home in Ancaster. The original 18 holes at the Ancaster site were designed by noted English golf course architect Harry Colt, whose other works include the Eden Course at St. Andrews, Royal Portrush, Toronto Golf Club, and St. George’s CC. A third nine was added in 1975.

The 2003 Bell Canadian Open was played here, making this the fifth Canadian Open to be played here since 2003 and a total of seven since 1919.  The first was won by J. Douglas Edgar by a record 16 shots in 1919, Tommy Armour won in 1930, while Bob Tway beat Brad Faxon in a playoff in 2003.  Jim Furyk won in 2006, Scott Piercy in 2012, and Rory McIlroy in 2019.

Now, the course was redesigned before the 2019 event because the club took out $1,000.  But after the 2019 event, architects Martin Ebert and Tom MacKenzie came in with a complete renovation, adding 117 yards to the course.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Hamilton.

This is based on the key stats for Hamilton Golf and Country, using data from the 2003 (Won by Bob Tway), 2006 (Won by Jim Furyk), 2012 (Won by Scott Piercy), and 2019 (Won by Rory McIlroy) RBC Canadian Opens held at Hamilton and data from all players in the field with stats through 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories.
Hamilton Golf and Country has a storied history. It’s located in Ancaster, Canada, about 50 miles south of Toronto and 20 miles west of Niagara Falls. The club began in 1894 and got renowned English golf architect Harry Colt designed 18 holes in 1914. A third nine was added in 1974. Since the day it opened in 1914, it has been considered one of the best courses in Canada. It thus was rewarded with hosting the very first Canadian Open in 1919, won by J. Douglas Edgar. 11 years after, in 1930, it held the event again and was won by Tommy Armour. The course wasn’t used again until 2003 when years of changes made the course play very tough. It returned in 2006, 2012, and then 2019.
When the 2019 Canadian Open was being played, the club approved a renovation project in which Martin Ebert and Tom MacKenzie were hired to help bring the course back to how golf architect Harry Colt built it over 100 years ago. This led to the complete rebuilding of all 27 greens, significant bunker improvements, and restoration of many design aspects. They put in a new irrigation system and cut a lot of trees. However, the pandemic slowed the renovation, which was finished for the 2022 summer season.
The golf course will play 117 yards longer than it did in 2019. The par-3 sixth, the second-most difficult hole at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open, will play 25 yards longer. The par-4 seventh (new back tee) will play 35 yards longer. The par-4 11th hole (21 additional yards) and par-4 14th (24) will require additional pop, as will the par-5 17th, which now measures 580 yards (30 yards longer with an entirely new green site that has been pushed back and to the left), and the par-4 18th (the hardest hole during the 2019 Canadian Open got an additional 11 yards)

One thing is certain when looking at Hamilton: it’s not a power-dominated course, which is a nice way of saying it isn’t a bombers course. We have an old classic parkland design featuring targets from the tee, firm, fast fairways, and slick greens. The course was built on excellent terrain. Elevation changes are commonplace throughout the routing and must be factored in on nearly every shot. Just like Colonial, six of the holes have sharp doglegs, and it will be hard to keep the ball in the fairway (1, 7, 10, 14, 15, and 18). The 5th hole is short and can be driven, but if you don’t hit a great shot, you will have problems making par. A wide variety of trees are found throughout the property, and their maturity makes them a significant factor when shots sail offline while bunkers are constantly grabbing your attention and dictating strategy.
Driving it straight is very important, probably the reason Bob Tway, Jim Furyk, Scott Piercy, and Rory McIlroy are past winners of the Canadian Open held at Hamilton. The par 3s are also very demanding, and the two par 5s aren’t automatic birdie holes. It’s important to hit lots of greens, but the most important element of playing well at Hamilton was putting. Both Jim Furyk in 2006 and Scott Piercy in 2012 had good putting weeks.

The hope is to reverse a trend in previous Canadian Opens played at Hamilton in which the winners’ scores drastically changed, showing how the advent of Technology made the course easier.
2003 Bob Tray         -8
2006 Jim Furyk      -14
2012 Scott Pierce  -17
2019 Rory McIlroy  -22
With these changes, the course should be a lot tougher than in 2019. So, how much easier did the course get?

In 2003, the course averaged 71.93 (almost two shots over for the par 70 making), making it the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour. 2006, the course played to a 70.27 average (just over par), making it the 28th hardest course on tour that year. In 2012, the course played under par at an average of 69.59 and was the 32nd hardest course on tour. In 2014, the scoring average was 769.66, the 21st hardest course on the PGA Tour that year. So we can see how much easier the course played between 2003 and 2019. The blame for this is that Technology is getting better.

So, for the 156 players in the field, Hamilton will be a new adventure and should play harder than it played in 2019.
In looking at our four categories, our first is Fairway Accuracy. What makes this course challenging is the combination of tree-lined fairways with thick rough. So this will be one of those rare places where you have to hit it straight.

Here is a look at the driving average at Hamilton in the years the Canadian Open was played on it:
*2003 – Hamilton ranked 24th in driving distance (all drives) and 5th in driving accuracy.
Winner Bob Tway was T-26th in driving distance (all drives) and T-41st (30 of 54) in accuracy.
*2006 –Hamilton ranked T-11th in driving distance and 18th in driving accuracy.
Winner Jim Furyk was 53rd in driving distance and 4th (44 of 54) in accuracy.
*2012 – Hamilton ranked T-11th in driving distance (all drives) and 18th in driving accuracy.
Winner Scott Piercy was 21st in driving distance and T-30th (35 of 54) in accuracy.
*2019 – Hamilton ranked 16th in driving distance (all drives) and 6th in driving accuracy.
Winner Rory McIlroy was T-2nd in driving distance and T-6th (37 of 54) in accuracy.
So driving it far and straight is essential.

Our second category is Greens in Regulation.
This is critical for Hamilton. Its greens are small, at just 6,000 square feet, and they are well protected by bunkers and runoff areas that make it hard to get them up and down. So hitting the greens, especially from rough, is hard. In looking at the winners at Hamilton, Bob Tway and Rory McIlroy were both second, while Furyk was T-34th and Piercy was T-53rd.

Here is a look at the Greens in Regulation of the Hamilton G&C.C. for the years it held the RBC Canadian Open:
*2003 – Hamilton averaged 55.59% in Greens in Regulation; it was the 7th hardest of the 56 courses that year
Winner Bob Tway hit 48 of 72 greens (66.67%) and ranked 2nd.
*2006 – Hamilton averaged 58.81% in Greens in Regulation; it was the 22nd hardest of the 55 courses that year
Winner Jim Furyk hit 48 of 72 greens (66.67%) and ranked T-34th.
*2012 – Hamilton averaged 58.81% in Greens in Regulation; it was the 32nd hardest of the 48 courses that year
Winner Scott Piercy hit 48 of 72 greens (66.67%) and ranked T-53rd.
*2019 – Hamilton averaged 63.63% in Greens in Regulation; it was the 16th hardest of the 49 courses that year
Winner Rory McIlroy hit 55 of 72 greens (76.39%) and ranked T-2nd.
Again, I can’t stress how important it is to hit many greens.

With greens set up on a crown, if you miss them, it’s essential to save par. For our third category, I feel that scrambling will be vital for those in contention.

Here is a look at Scrambling for Hamilton G&C.C. over the years it held the RBC Canadian Open:
*2003 – Only 55.14% of the greens missed as the field got up and down, making Hamilton the 19th hardest course out of 56 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down.
Winner Bob Tway’s key to winning was getting it up and down as he got it up and down on 22 of the 24 greens he missed, which ranked 1st.
*2006 – Only 59.48% of the greens missed as the field got up and down, making Hamilton the 40th hardest course out of 55 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down.
Winner Jim Furyk was the complete opposite. He got it up and down on 19 of the 24 greens he missed, which ranked 57th.
*2012 – Only 60.23% of the greens missed as the field got up and down, making Hamilton the 37th hardest course out of 48 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down.
Winner Scott Piercy got it up and down on 17 of the 24 missed greens, which ranks T-24th.
*2019 – Only 62.01% of the greens missed my field got up and down, making Hamilton the 38th hardest course out of 49 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down on.
Winner Rory McIlroy got it up and down on 11 of the 17 missed greens, which ranks 36th.

Our last stat category is putting inside ten feet. Again, missing greens in greenside bunkers or the runoff areas will leave players with many putts in the four to ten-foot range, so making a lot of putts inside ten feet will be necessary. Also, with the small greens of Hamilton, balls should be closer to the hole, thus making these putts important.

Here is a look at Putts inside ten feet for Hamilton G&C.C. over the years it held the RBC Canadian Open:
*2003 – 87.56 putts inside ten feet were made, making Hamilton the 16th hardest course out of 56 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down on.
Winner Bob Tway made 62 out of 69 attempts, which ranked 23rd.
*2006 – 87.16 putts inside ten feet were made, making Hamilton the 24th hardest course out of 55 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down on.
Winner Jim Furyk made 58 out of 60 attempts, which ranked 1st.
*2012 – 86.33 putts inside ten feet were made, making Hamilton the 10th hardest course out of 48 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down on.
Winner Scott Piercy made 62 out of 65 attempts, which ranked 3rd.
*2019 – 87.56 putts inside ten feet were made, making Hamilton the 16th hardest course out of 49 courses on the PGA Tour in getting it up and down on.
Winner Rory McIlroy made 60 out of 66 attempts, which ranked 20th.

Hamilton has a lot of history and a challenging course that should be a lot tougher this year with the changes made to the course.

*Fairway Accuracy: The percentage of time a tee shot comes to rest in the fairway

*Greens in Regulation: The percent of time a player was able to hit the green in regulation

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation but still makes par or better.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy; counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

Here are the 117 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2023:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database covering 77 events, beginning at the start of the 2023 season and ending with the 2024 Charles Schwab. The database includes the number of points a player won during each event and its cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and the average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least nine events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $12,100
• Sahith Theegala – $10,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
• Shane Lowry – $10,100
• Alex Noren – $9,900
• Cameron Young – $9,800
• Corey Conners – $9,500
• Sam Burns – $9,400
• Maverick McNealy – $9,200
• Adam Scott – $9,000

It is hard not to take Rory McIlroy at $12,100.  He won at Hamilton in 2019, he played well.  We can see a consistent note on McIlroy that when he wins on one course, he plays well in future events.  His game is sharp, I think his marriage is in his rearview mirror, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win.  Sorry, but the price for Sahith Theegala at $10,500 is too much.  Yes, he had a great season with five top tens, but he is just not a great DraftKings player as he is averaging just 72.3 points per event.  Same with Tommy Fleetwood at $10,300, he only averages 70.0 points per event, which is not enough.  Still, he finished 2nd in this event last year and had a couple of good starts in 2024, but the cost says no.  I like Shane Lowry at $10,100, not only has he played well this year but he was T-2nd at Hamilton in 2019.  I know Alex Noren is priced high at $9,900, but he is a good pick.  He’s played well in 2024 and hasn’t missed a cut in 17 starts, but he’s also 4th in greens in regulation, 20th in hitting fairways, and 1st in scrambling.  So, all signs point to him doing well.  Cameron Young at $9,800 is a tough call.  His stats aren’t great for this course, but he’s had some good finishes and hasn’t finished in the top ten in his last three starts, so he’s due.  Corey Conners at $9,500 is a consideration as he is second in greens in regulation.  What worries me is that in 14 starts in 2024, he has made the cut in all events but is still looking for his first top ten.  With his cost so high, I say no.  I feel the same about Sam Burns at $9,400, he has struggled with his game in his last seven starts so he is a no.  Maverick McNealy at $9,200 is a no, the course doesn’t suit his game and he hasn’t played well in his last six starts.  Adam Scott at $9,000 is a no, he doesn’t play well.  He did play Hamilton in 2003 and finished T-32nd.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Aaron Rai at $8,900, is a great pick.  He played well in 2024, but look at these stats for the year.  1st in fairways hit, 5th in greens hit, these are the kind of stats that make you pick him.  I like Canadian Adam Hadwin at $8,500.  He was 6th at Hamilton in 2019, he was T-12th last year, and has had some good finishes in 2024, including 4th at Genesis and 5th at Valspar, tough courses on the same level as Hamilton.  Mackenzie Hughes at $8,300, is another Canadian who would love to win his national championship.  Can he do it, probably not, but he can give you a top five.  Nick Taylor at $8,000, is priced right, and many will be hoping he can recapture the magic of his win last year.  But I think a Canadian defending his title is too tough to handle, so pass on him.  Matt Wallace at $7,600, is one to watch.  Yes, he’s not a straight driver, but he does hit a lot of greens and has been playing well lately.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the RBC Canadian Open

It’s hard to find bargains, The first one I like is Doug Ghim at $7,400.  He’s a guy who’s not flashy, but he’s made a lot of cuts and played well in his two Canadian Open starts.  Matt Kuchar at $6,800, yes he has been playing poorly in 2024 but has shown some signs of life.  He plays well at the Canadian Open and, in two starts at Hamilton, was T-4 in 2019 and T-34 in 2012.  S.H. Kim at $6,800 is worth a look.  Makes a lot of cuts and has played well on tough courses like TPC Craig Ranch and Silverado.  Patton Kizzire at $6,300 is cheap, and after a rough start in 2024, he is playing well and playing 72 holes.  Gary Woodland is a good pick at $6,200.  His game has improved, and he plays well in Canada.  Last and someone who could surprise us is Stewart Cink at $5,600.  He makes a lot of cuts, played well in the Senior PGA last week, and finished T-11 in Hamilton in 2006.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• Those who have played the course before will have a slight advantage, but the key to the course will be for those who can handle the par 4s.  There are 12 of them, and they range from 346 to 474 yards.  The 5th, 10th, and 12th are the only ones under 400 yards.  So that means ten holes are over 400 yards and five of them are over 440 yards.  So, if you can hit the par 4s, you will be in good shape this week.

Here are some more key stats to watch out for this week:

• The course has a lot of doglegs and holes that long hitters won’t be able to hit.  So look for a lot of layups and players like Rory and Cameron Champ hitting irons off the tee.  Hamilton doesn’t have to worry about being a bomber course because you have to stay in the fairway.
• The greens are contoured and well-bunkered, which means those who scramble will do very well.
• Putting will be one key to success at Hamilton. Those who putt well will get the nod over players who hit a lot of greens. So, a good putter and scrambler will win this week.
• With a field that’s not loaded with marquee names, I would say a first-time winner is very likely.  That tends to be the trend on the PGA Tour when a new course is used, a rookie tends to win.
• Now, we tend to forget that this is the National Open of Canada.  Last year, Nick Taylor was a hero, becoming the first Canadian winner since Pat Fletcher won in 1954.  Mike Weir came close in 2004, only to blow a lead on the final holes and lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that, it’s been a bit bare, as Dave Barr finished T4 in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5 in 2001.  Adam Hadwin finished 6th at Hamilton in 2019.  In 2022, Corey Conners shot 62 to finish 6th.   Now, Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, but his game is not up to PGA Tour standards, and other than his T-52nd finish last year, he missed the cut in five straight between 2016 and 2022. .  A few Canadian players to watch this week are Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Connors.  Of course, defending champion Nick Taylor is playing, but I think winning last year will make this a hectic week for him.
• The PGA Tour has been very lucky the last four or so weeks missing out on storms. Last week they played with delays in the early rounds.  In looking at the weather forecast for this week,  each day will be great, with temperatures in the mid 70s.
• The biggest tip I can give you regarding this tournament is to go to a course that many haven’t seen. Check the who’s hot list. If a player has done well over the last six weeks, he will probably play well this week.