U.S. Open Key Fantasy Stats

U.S. Open

June 13th – June 16th, 2024

Pinehurst #2

Village of Pinehurst, N.C.

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,543

Purse: $21.5 million

with $4,300,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Wyndham Clark

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the key stats for Pinehurst #2, using data from the 1999, 2005, and 2014 U.S. Open held at Pinehurst and data from all players in the field with stats through 2024. We take their rank for each stat and then add the four categories. In addition to these events, the 1936 PGA Championship was played, and Denny Shute won. The PGA Tour held three events at Pinehurst:

• The 1982 Hall of Fame won by Jay Haas
  The 1991 Tour Championship was won by Craig Stadler
  The 1992 Tour Championship won by Paul Azinger

In 1951, the Ryder Cup was played, and Team USA won. The course held the 1994 U.S. Senior Open, with Simon Hobday winning. The U.S. Amateur was played three times at Pinehurst: in 1962, won by Labron E. Harriss Jr.; the 2008 Amateur, won by Danny Lee; and the 2019 Amateur, won by Andy Ogletree. On top of that, there have been dozens of amateur championships, which help solidify Pinehurst’s credentials. The USGA is pretty set with the way Pinehurst is; they will hold the 2029, 2035, 2041, and 2047 U.S. Opens on the course.
Pinehurst is as unique as Pebble Beach and some courses that hold the British Open. Most U.S. Opens and PGA Championships play it on a long course with tight fairways and high rough. Water plays a key in several holes on many courses, and the greens are tricky with many undulations. The key to most courses is weather; if it’s dry, the course will be hard and fast, making it more difficult. Most of these features you won’t find at Pinehurst. The course has ribbons of fairways that weave through sandy waste areas with clumps of scrub grass, which, if you hit into the area, is a 50/50 proposition if you can get your next shot onto the green. The course has no water hazards or barricades, which were featured last year at Los Angeles Country Club. But the key to the course is the greens; all 18 are domed like an upside-down saucer, so they are very hard to hit and keep on the greens. On other courses, if you miss the green, you are faced with either a bunker shot or a pitch to get it up and down. But since the Greens are domed, they have significant runoff areas, as Augusta National has. With the elevation change from off the green, judging how to get it close is a tricky proposition. These are all challenges you won’t find on the PGA Tour; if there is a course with similar problems, you probably have to compare it to Augusta National, but it’s totally different in how the course looks, and Pinehurst is flat. So what will make the course hard is its uniqueness and the fact that players don’t play courses like Pinehurst.
So, with pretty wide fairways and the lack of rough and tight fairways, many will think that this is a bomber’s paradise, but it hasn’t been in its previous three U.S. Opens played on it. But that could change this year. If you look at the three players who won at Pinehurst, Payne Stewart, Michael Campbell, and Martin Kaymer are not considered “bombers.” So, does this eliminate long hitters like Brooks Koepka or Bryson DeChambeau? Absolutely not, because they can scramble around greens and are good putters. If you look at the two U.S. Opens won by Koepka, they were at Erin Hills and Shinnecock Hills, also unique courses that are links-like and have some of the uniqueness that Pinehurst has.

For 2024, Pinehurst underwent another renovation, but it was more evolutionarily than drastic. For 1999, the course played to a par 70, at 7,175 yards. For 2024, the course will again be a par 70 and play at 7,540, 365 yards longer. But in a drastic way, technology has changed a lot in the 25 years since 1999, but the yardage change for Pinehurst is nothing drastic. What has changed over the 25 years is how the waste areas have evolved and played an essential part in how challenging the course is. Another significant change: in 2014, greens were bentgrass and now are Champion Bermudagrass, so the USGA will be able to make the greens firmer, which means more shots will roll off the greens into the chipping areas.
So, what will be the keys to playing well at Pinehurst? Hit it far and straight to avoid the scrub areas. If you drive it poorly and into the waste areas, getting shots onto the green will be a guessing game. However, a key to playing well is proper planning from the fairway to ensure an iron finds the part of the green that won’t bounce off and roll into the chipping areas. So, I would say scrambling will be up most this week. Putting is also essential; it’s hard to find a player who won the U.S. Open who doesn’t make a fair amount of putts in the 4 to 10-foot range.
The par 3s are gems, again taking precision shotmaking to get them onto the greens. They range from 184 yards to 216 in length. As for the two par 5s, they are reachable in two and should be fine for players to make birdies, but that isn’t automatic. There are three par 4s under 400 yards, the first at 398, the third at 387, and the 13th at 381. There are three par 4s over 500 yards, the 2nd at 500 yards, the 4th at 528, and the 16th at 536. Of the 12 par 4s, seven of them are over 470 yards.
The course has received high praise from the players in the three U.S. Opens played on them, and I can see that happening again this year.
*In 1999, the course averaged 74.55 (four and a half shots over par), making it the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour.

*In 2005, the course played to a 74.17 average (just four shots over par), making it the hardest course on tour that year.

*In 2014, the course played to a scoring average of 73.08, again the hardest course on the PGA Tour that year.

The course had perfect weather in all three championships, and they didn’t experience much wind; in 2014, the highest wind was just 12 mph on Thursday. Again for this year, the weather will not play a part in the championship this year as every day will be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies and wind in the 7 mph range, so we should get scores in the high single digits or low double digits.

Pinehurst #2 is a very demanding course. It would help if a player could hit it hard, long, and straight. Data is very sketchy for the three U.S. Opens played at Pinehurst, as the shotlink stats we are used to are unavailable. So, in the case of driving distance, only two holes have stats, unlike a regular PGA Tour event in which every hole is measured.

*In 2005, the course averaged 291.9 yards, the 21st longest course on the PGA Tour.

*In 2014, the course averaged 284.5 yards, the 35th longest course of the year. In 1999, winner Payne Stewart’s average drive was 255.3 yards, which was short as he ranked 50th. In 2005, winner Michael Campbell’s average drive was 294.3 yards, and he ranked 36th.

*In 2014, Martin Kaymers drove an average of 305.5 yards and was the fifth-longest driver of that year. The trend may be for longer drivers to do better.

One of the keys to playing well at Pinehurst is hitting the greens.

*In 1999, the field hit 47.06% of the greens and ranked the hardest out of 55 courses ranked that year. Winner Payne Stewart hit 41 of 72 greens and finished 8th.

*In 2005, the field hit 49.77% of the greens and was again the hardest of 55 courses for the year. Winner Michael Campbell hit 41 of 72 greens and ranked T-16th.

*In 2014, the field hit 56.51% of the greens and ranked 3rd hardest of the 48th courses ranked that year. Winner Martin Ga

So here we go with our four key categories. Our first key stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Unfortunately, this stat didn’t exist for the three Opens played at Pinehurst, so we only have hard data to deal with, but we can see who is best over the course of the year to determine this stat. This is a good barometer since you must hit it off the tee and play well with iron shots to the greens.
*1999 – The field hit an average of 47.06% of the greens and ranked 1st, while the field hit 66.27% of the fairways and ranked 24th. Winner Payne Stewart hit 44 of the 56 fairways, which was T-8th. He hit 41 of 72 greens and ranked 8th.
*2005 – The field hit an average of 49.77% of the greens and ranked 1st, while the field hit 51.58% of the fairways and ranked 4th. Winner Michael Campbell hit 64.29% of the fairways, finished T-8th and 56.94% of the greens, and was T-16th.
*2014 – The field hit 70.02% of the fairways at Pinehurst, which was 45th, and 56.51% of the greens which was 3rd best.
Winner Martin Kaymer was T-18th in greens in regulation, hitting 62.50% of the greens.

Scrambling is our second key stat, mainly because of the history of many missed greens and the severity of getting it up and down. At Pinehurst, the course is adamant about getting it up and down, and historically, we can see that those who do well scramble well.
*1999 – Only 49.96% of the missed greens got up and down, making Pinehurst the hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Payne Stewart had a tough time getting it up and down as he only got it up and down on 20 of the 31 greens he missed, which ranked 8th.
*2005 – Only 46.33% of the greens the field missed, got it up and down, making Pinehurst the 2nd hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Michael Campbell did a little better at getting it up and down as he only got it up and down on 19 of the 31 greens he missed, which ranked 9th.
*2014 – Only 49.96% of the greens the field missed got up and down, making Pinehurst the hardest course to get up and down on. Winner Martin Kaymer made scrambling one of the keys to winning as he got it up and down on 19 of the 27 missed greens and was the best in the field.

Another essential skill for success is putting. For our third category, we chose to make putts inside 10 feet.
Now, the USGA never kept this stat, so we don’t have any historical reference for proving this. The best stat is the overall putting average, which has some flaws since a lot of greens are missed.
*In 1999, the course ranked 20th in Overall Putting average and 2nd in Putting average. Payne Stewart took 111 putts (27.75 per round) and ranked T-6th.
*In 2005, the course ranked 11th in Overall Putting average and 2nd in Putting average. Michael Campbell took 113 putts (28.25 per round) and he ranked T-4th.
*In 2014, the course ranked 3rd in Overall Putting average and 1st in Putting average. Martin Kaymer took 110 putts (27.50 per round) and ranked 3rd.

Our final category is one in which players must find a way to make birdies and eagles to score well. Birdies and eagles are very dear at the U.S. Open, so Par Breakers, which is making eagles and birdies, is significant for Pinehurst.

So here is a look at the Par Breakers for the U.S. Open Course and winners at Pinehurst:
*1999 – Only 728 birdies were made, and even though 13 courses had less, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the least birdies at 1.63 per round. Now for eagles, only 3 eagles were made for the week, again the lowest of any full-field event on the PGA Tour. So that meant that the field averaged 9.11% under par holes, and again, it was the lowest figure on the PGA Tour for 1999.
Winner Payne Stewart made 12 birdies (best) and no eagles, playing 16.67% of his holes under par and ranking T-1st in Par Breakers.
*2005 – Only 857 birdies were made, and even though 14 courses had fewer, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the fewest birdies at 1.80 per round. Now, 10 eagles were made for the week, which was the lowest of any full-field event on the PGA Tour. So that meant that the field averaged 10.12% under par holes and again it was the lowest figure on the PGA Tour for 2005.
Winner Michael Campbell made 16 birdies (best) and no eagles, as 22.22% of the holes were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
*2014 – Only 959 birdies were made, and even though 13 courses had fewer, they didn’t have full fields of 156 players. So, for the year, it yielded the least birdies at 2.15 per round. Now for eagles, 22 were made for the week, making it the 22nd lowest on the PGA Tour, with five courses having full-field events on the PGA Tour that year. That meant that the field averaged 12.22% under par on the holes, and again, it was the lowest figure on the PGA Tour for 2005.
Winner Martin Kaymer made 16 birdies (best) and one eagle, and 23.61% of the holes played were under par, ranking him first in Par Breakers.
So, the winner will have to make a fair share of birdies and eagles.

So, if you look at all these stats, who has played the best at Pinehurst?
29 of the players in the field this year, played in 2014. Here are the best results:
Winner – Martin Kaymer
T-2nd – Rickie Fowler
T-4th – Brooks Koepka
T-4th – Keegan Bradley
T-4th – Jason Day
T-4th – Dustin Johnson
T-9th – Adam Scott
T-14th – Justin Rose
T-18th – Sergio Garcia
T-12th – Matt Kuchar
T-17th – Jordan Spieth
T-17th – Brendon Todd
T-23rd – Rory McIlroy
T-23rd – Billy Horschel
T-23rd – Francesco Molinari
T-28th – Phil Mickelson
T-28th – Daniel Berger
T-28th – Chris Kirk

Only five players in the field this year, participated in 2005:
2nd – Tiger Woods
T-3rd – Sergio Garcia
T-21st – Adam Scott
T-33rd – Phil Mickelson
Cut – Matt Kuchar

Only three played in 1999: Phil Mickelson was 2nd, Tiger Woods was T-33rd and Matt Kuchar missed the cut.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: This stat is a great barometer of how players are playing from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit, and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: Which course is hard to get up and down on holes where players miss the greens? Since all the areas around the greens are mowed short and players are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect, so you need to make sure you can make pars from some tough spots.

*Putt inside 10 feet: Very simple, count every putt inside ten feet to see who makes the most.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

87 of the 156 players in this year’s field have stats from 2024. There are 16 Amateurs, foreign players, and LIV players in the field.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.