John Deere Classic Key Fantasy Stats

John Deere Classic

July 4th – 7th, 2024

TPC Deere Run

Silvis, IL

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,289

Purse: $8 million

with $1,440,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Sepp Straka

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, data from last year’s John Deere, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run is that it’s one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters, and those that hit it long have no real advantage. Those that hit it long must throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,289 yards, but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of role. In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has four par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two, even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, Michael Kim, Lucas Glover 2022 champion J.T Poston who ranked 104th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2022. and last year’s champion, Sepp Straka, ranked 105th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2023 and in 2024 ranked 133rd. Yes, I know the longest hitter of the ball today is Bryson DeChambeau, who won in 2017, but that was an anomaly.
Lots of birdies are always made on the course; last year, 1,822 were made on TPC Deere Run, with only nine courses seeing more birdies: TPC River Highlands (1,844), Keene Trace (1,866), TPC Twin Cities (1,869), {prt Royal Golf Course (1,939), TPC Summerlin (1,956), TPC Craig Ranch (2,021), Detroit G.C. (2,066), and El Cardonal at Diamante (2,094).

Since 2019, in four events, the course has played overly fair, with the scoring average being 69.59, which is close to a shot and a half under its par of 71. So, TPC Deere Run is a relatively easy course, and you have to make a lot of birdies and eagles. In 2023, it played to a 69.47 average, making it the 40th hardest course (out of 58 on tour last year). Making birdies is essential, as 1,822 were made on the course last year.
As we said, the TPC Deere Run field’s scoring average was low last year, the lowest since 2018, when it averaged 69.38. This was due mostly to the weather, which was warm with rain on Friday and not much wind. Soft conditions bring on low scoring.

Here is a look at the scoring average at the par 71 TPC Deere Run for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 69.58, was the 34th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 69.51; it was the 41st hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Was not played due to covid
*2019 – Average was 69.51, 35th hardest of 49 courses that year.
So, the course is the type you must think low and make many birdies on. Look for super low scoring this week since the temperatures will be in the low 80s each day, with rain on Thursday and Friday so that the course will be soft. Look for primarily good conditions over the weekend with no rain and winds under 12 mpg.

So, looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those who hit it long, those who hit it short will at least have as much chance as the longer hitter. So it’s a perfect time to look at these strokes gained stats as our first three categories: Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained Total. After that, Strokes Gained Putting is essential because this course is easy to putt; there is not much undulation in the greens, so poor putters have a good chance this week. We saw that when J.T. Poston won in 2022, he ranked T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting for the year, but for the week at the John Deere, he was 31st. In 2021, Lucas Glover was 19th in Strokes Gained Putting at TPC Deere Run but was 137th for the year.
The tournament is being played two weeks before the British Open so that the course will be firm and fast. TPC Deere Run underwent a major renovation after the 2021 event. All 80 bunkers were completely rebuilt, with four eliminated. Some other changes stretched the course 21 yards, but the bunker work will make it a notch tougher.

Our first category is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. Short hitters have a significant advantage; Last year, the average drive of all drives at TPC Deere Run was 297.0, as the course ranked 31st out of the 41 courses tracked in 2023. In Driving Accuracy, 64.16% of the fairways were hit at the TPC Deere run, which ranked 43rd out of 58 courses for 2023. So, the combination of both stats shows that the TPC Deere Run is perfect for those who hit it short and straight. Sepp Straka was the winner, and his average drive for all the holes was 298.0 yards, ranked 28th. Straka hit 42 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-9th as he was 7th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .821 shots.
Here is a look at the Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee of the John Deere Classic for the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run ranked 23rd in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 295.1 yards (out of 36 courses), and it was T-36th (out of 50 courses) in driving accuracy as 63.52% of the fairways were hit. Winner J.T. Poston’s average drive for all holes was 296.5, which ranked 37th, and he hit 41 of 56 fairways, ranking T-12th. Poston was 15th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .690 shots.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run ranked 18th in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 289.5 yards (out of 39 courses) and 38th (out of 51 courses) in driving accuracy, as 67.73% of the fairways were hit. Winner Lucas Glover’s average drive for all holes was 287.6, which ranked T-30th, and he hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-24th. Glover was 30th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .317 shots.
*2020 – Was not played due to covid
*2019 – TPC Deere Run ranked 28th in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 293.1 yards (out of 35 courses), and it was 38th (out of 58 courses) in driving accuracy as 66.78% of the fairways were hit. Winner Dylan Frittelli’s average drive for all holes was 294.9, which ranked 37th, and he hit 44 of 56 fairways, ranking T-7th. Frittelli was 10th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .767 shots.

Our second stat is Strokes Gained Putting. We pick this stat because most past TPC winners are notoriously poor putters but seem able to putt well at the John Deere Classic. Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked T-29th in Putting average, 27th in One-Putt Percentage, T-17th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 13th in Putting Inside ten feet as 87.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, ranked 2nd in Putting Average, T-19th in One-Putt Percentage, T-26th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 47th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 57 out of 65 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting as he gained 1.693 shots.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the TPC Deere Run and John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run ranked 31st in Putting average, 21st in One-Putt Percentage, T-24th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 23rd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.20% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner J.T. Poston ranked 27th in Putting average, T-34th in One-Putt Percentage, T-55th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-48th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 65 out of 74 putts in this range. With all these stats, it’s no surprise that he was 31st in Strokes Gained in Putting, gaining just .564 shots.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run ranked T-34th in Putting average, 23rd in One-Putt Percentage, 41st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 36th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.85% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Lucas Glover ranked 10th in Putting average, T-4th in One-Putt Percentage, T-48th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 50th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 61 out of 69 putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 19th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .750 shots Gained.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – TPC Deere Run ranked 36th in Putting average, 26th in One-Putt Percentage, 35th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 28th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Dylan Frittelli ranked 22nd in Putting average, T-15th in One-Putt Percentage, T-19th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 3rd in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 60 out of 7626 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.865 shots.

We have yet to use our third stat before Strokes Gained Total. This adds up all the stats gained for SG Off-the-Tee, SG Approach-the-Green, SG Around-the-Green, SG Putting, and SG Tee-to-Green. You can’t find this in course statistics, but it is found for each player. Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, was 7th in SG Off-the-Tee, picking up .621 shots, was 18th in SG Approach-the-Green, picking up .856 shots, 34th in SG Around-the-Green, picking up .172 shots, 4th in S.G. Putting picking up 1.693 shots and 7th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 1.849. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.542 shots.
Here is a look at the S.G. Total of the TPC Deere Run and John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Winner J.T. Poston, was 15th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .690 shots, was 10th in SG Approach-the-Green picking up 1.176 shots, 1st in SG Around-the-Green picking up 1.486 shots, 31st in SG Putting picking up .564 shots and 1st in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 3.353. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.917 shots.
*2021 – Winner Lucas Glover, was 30th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .317 shots, was 3rd in SG Approach-the-Green picking up 1.780 shots, 17th in SG Around-the-Green picking up .456 shots, 19th in SG Putting picking up .750 shots and 4th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 2.553. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.303 shots.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – Winner Dylan Frittelli, was 10th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .767 shots, was 60th in SG Approach-the-Green losing .233 shots, 2nd in SG Around-the-Green picking up 1.211 shots, 2nd in SG Putting picking up 1.865 shots and 15th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 31.746. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.611 shots.

Our last category is the number of birdies made; those at the top of the list will make many of them, and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy; last year, it played to an average of 69.47, as 1,822 birdies were made, which ranked 50th out of 58 courses. Winner Sepp Straka made 26 birdies, the most of anyone in the field.
Here is a look at the number of birdies made at the TPC Deere Run and for the John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,803 birdies made that year, which ranked 43rd out of 50 courses. Winner J.T. Poston made 22 birdies and ranked T-5th.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,802 birdies made, which ranked 47th out of 51 courses on tour that year. Winner Lucas Glover made 24 birdies, the most of anyone.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,885 birdies made, which ranked 47th out of 49 courses on tour that year. Winner Dylan Frittelli made 22 birdies, which ranked T-9th.
So yes, making many birdies is very beneficial and needed to win this week.
Usually, we would say that a non-marquee name would win, but that isn’t the case. In the last 14 years, we have seen Steve Stricker win three times, and Jordan Spieth won twice, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, and Kenny Perry, so the event has seen some marquee champions. On top of that, 2021 champion Lucas Glover isn’t a slouch; he won the 2009 U.S. Open, while the defending champion J.T. Poston won the 2019 Wyndham on top of the John Deere.
So, after weeks of playing on challenging courses in the U.S. Open, Canadian Open, Memorial, and the PGA Championship, players get a break, and this week is all about making the most birdies and eagles.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

*Strokes Gained Total: The per-round average of the number of Strikes the player scored better or worse than the field average on the same course and event.

*Birdie average: Calculates how many birdies a player makes per round

Of the 156 players in the field, 104 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.