BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week, the Tour is in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. For the first time since the Mexico Open at the end of April, this is a week for most marquee players to take the week off and prepare for the British and the FedExCup playoffs. Only seven top-50 ranked players are on the field, but that doesn’t matter for fans in the Davenport Moline communities. For them, the John Deere is their Super Bowl, as the tournament is very well attended by a sponsor who loves the event. The fans will root for the players no matter who plays, as this event has a good vibe. So this week, it’s about those not in the top 70 who are having a good week and getting into the top 70. In looking at a possible winner, it’s hard to predict. Sure, the event has had marquee winners like Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker, but at the same time, nobody thought about Sepp Straka before last year’s John Deere. Straka shot an opening round 73 and it looked like he wouldn’t play the weekend since he was T-33rd.  But with rounds of 63-65-62, Straka pulled off one of the best comebacks on the PGA Tour. Nobody thought about Straka, Brendon Todd, or Alex Smalley, who were runner-ups. This points out that another out-of-left-field winner like Straka should be looked for. Or could Denny McCarthy, Nick Dunlap, Eric Cole, or Aaron Rai win? Will Jordan Spieth, who won twice in four Deere starts, continue to stay hot and win? I like Aaron Rai, who was T-2nd last week at the Rocket Mortgage and has played well of late; I also think that Lucas Glover, who was T-6th the previous year at the Deere and has played well, could be one to watch and win a second title at the John Deere. Again, remember the golden rule at TPC Deere Run; the venue is one of those rare courses on Tour that benefits short hitters and poor putters.

Last week in Detroit:

So Cam Davis returns to the winner’s circle at the Rocket Mortgage. His win was thanks to Akshay Bhatia three-putting the final green, missing a short three-footer that would have sent the event into a playoff.

With Davis’s win, he joined an elite club to make his second career PGA Tour victory in the same event he won his first. As you can see below, this has been accomplished 13 times since 1970. Making Davis’s win more dubious, he is now one of five players whose first two victories are at the same event and who haven’t won yet. The good news is that along with K.H. Lee and Corey Conners, they are still active players and, with a win, could leave that list.

• Cam Davis – won the 2021 & ‘2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic (only wins)
• K.H. Lee – won the 2021 & 2022 Byron Nelson   (only wins)
• Corey Conners – won the 2019 & 2023 Valero Texas Open   (only wins)
• Daniel Berger – Won the 2016 & 2017 FedEx St. Jude Classic
• Robert Streb – won the 2015 &  2021 RSM Classic   (only wins)
• Matt Every – won the 2014 & 2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational   (only wins)
• Boo Weekley – won the 2007 & ’08 RBC Heritage
• J.B. Holmes – won the 2006 & 2008 WM Phoenix Open
• Loren Roberts – won the 1994 & 1995 Arnold Palmer Invitational
• Brian Henninger – won the 1994 & 1999 Sanderson Farms Championship  (only wins)
• Calvin Peete – won the 1979 & 1982 U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee
• Dave Eichelberger – won the 1971 & 1977 U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee
• Hale Irwin – won the 1971 & 1973 RBC Heritage

Now, the big question is if Cam Davis can win a PGA Tour event other than the Rocket Mortgage. He has played in 147 PGA Tour events, with 19 Top Tens, but other than his two Rocket wins, he was third three times. So he will have to work hard not to have the dubious title of two PGA Tour wins at the same event.

Players to watch in the future.

Of course, we all know that Akshay Bhatia will win again. He is that good, but he has to get more consistent. Bhatia, who has won twice in the last 12 months, has to be more consistent. Since winning the Barracuda almost a year ago, in 28 events since that win, he has missed eight cuts and, before the U.S. Open, was only in contention in a few events. But since finishing T-16th at Pinehurst, he was T-5th at the Travelers and runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage. He is not playing at the John Deere this week and has not entered the Scottish Open, so the British Open is probably his next start. Do I see Bhatia winning again before the end of the playoffs? Probably not, but he is a natural talent to be reckoned with in the future.

So, how about Cam Davis?

He is a good player, but Bhatia is on a different level. Davis will win again, but it may be a bit, and it won’t happen in 2024. Davis was supposed to play at the John Deere and, like many of those who win the week before, has withdrawn. We will see him next week in Scotland and at Troon. Davis has played just once in the Scottish Open and missed the cut. At the Open, he played once and finished T-39th in 2018. Davis is well suited for the windy conditions in both places and is someone to watch.

What about Min Win Lee and Aaron Rai? 

Both have yet to be on my radar going into the Rocket Mortgage. Both should be on our scopes; Lee won the Australian PGA in November and has been consistent since finishing 3rd at the Australian Open, T-2nd at the Cognizant Classic, and now runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage. Lee is not playing at the John Deere but will be at the Genesis Scottish Open, which he won in 2021. So, he will be on my radar scope.

As for Rai, he has played well since Houston. Going into the Canadian Open last year, he was 130th in the World Ranking. Over the year, he has climbed to 59th in the rankings, opening many doors for him. He plays for the first time in the John Deere and will finish in the top ten. The course suits his game; it’s a lot of TPC Craig Ranch, where he finished T-4th, and Memorial Park, where he finished T-7th.  Rai will play in the Scottish Open and British Open. I wouldn’t say I like his chances in those events so that Rai could be your pick for the year at the John Deere.

Here are some others to watch: we have seen a steady climb with Davis Thompson. He is in his second year on Tour, and since he was runner-up at Myrtle Beach, he has played well. He was T-9th at the U.S. Open and T-2nd at the Rocket Mortgage. This is important to him; going into Myrtle Beach, he was 113th in the FedEx Cup race and 127th in the World rankings. Today, he is 58th and on the cusp of going into the playoffs, but he has climbed to 70th in the rankings. Last year, Thompson was T-31st at the John Deere, and he will be much better this year. He fits the mold of past Deere winners, doesn’t hit it far or straight, and could be a better putter. This could be a perfect week for him.

Another person to watch is Eric Cole.

Last year was a banner year for Cole, who was the Rookie of the Year. He was runner-up twice and third twice. He was 43rd in the FedEx points list, and a lot was expected from Cole in 2024. But his game has floundered this year; every part of his game has gone down in 2024. It is hard to pinpoint what is wrong, but Cole has experienced conflict. His parents, Bobby Cole and Laura Baugh, have not had a dream life, and Cole has endured his battle with Addison’s Disease and his game. But Cole is a grinder, and even though 2024 has not been like 2023, he has yet to play terribly. We saw him make a significant change at the Travelers; he shot 66-65 over the weekend, which carried over to the Rocket Mortgage as he finished T-6th.  So the big question is, did he peak or have more game for this week? Again, TPC Deere Run is perfect for him, and he wants to ensure he stays in the top 70 of the FedEx Cup. He is 59th, so the odds are in his favor, but he can’t slip. So, is Cole a good match for this week? It’s a toss-up, but Cole should play well this week; he is overdue.

So what about Luke Clanton?

He played great last week at the Rocket Mortgage, finishing T-10th, which got him into the John Deere. Clanton was T-41st at the U.S. Open, and usually, that would have gotten him low amateur honors, but that went to Neal Shipley. But many wonder, did Clanton peak last week or does he have more to show us? I will not bet on Clanton; he has had a good run, but I see it end this week. But I do like Neal Shipley, who finished T-20th in his professional debut in Detroit. He is playing this week, and we will see him play well again. This week could be his first top-ten finish. Shipley was on our radar when he played well and got low amateur honors at Augusta. He did it again at Pinehurst, and we must take him seriously. Again, he is a good pick for this week.

I am alarmed over Will Zalatoris

He has gone through the wringer for the last two years. A week after his breakthrough win at the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship, he hurt himself the following week at the BMW Championship. He spent the next five months in rehab and made swing changes to take the pressure away from his back. He started the 2023 season at Kapalua and finished T-11th. He was also 4th at the Genesis, but after that, the pain returned, and he struggled. He showed up at Augusta but left in pain, and it was decided to operate on the injury. He played at an event in December. He seemed okay and started playing again at the Sony Open in January. His game was indifferent; he finished T-2nd at the Genesis and T-4th at the Palmer but still struggled. Since the Masters, he hasn’t finished better than T-41st and missed the cut at the Zurich Classic team event and the U.S. Open. At the Rocket Mortgage, CBS reported that in the third round, Zalatoris felt a “pop” in his hip that was good and, with the discomfort, decided to withdraw. We haven’t heard anything from his camp, and I am worried about his future. We will get back to you when we finally hear how Zalatoris is.

Last but not least, is Jordan Spieth worth taking this week?

I haveSpieth has not been on many people’s lists of players to take. His year started with much promise as he was 3rd at the Sentry, T-39th at Pebble, and T-6th at Phoenix. But it’s been a train wreck since, in 17 starts this year, he has not played on the weekend six times, and since Phoenix has only finished once in the top 25. We don’t know what the problem is; his wrist is a problem, and I also think he is too cluttered with things to do and struggles on the course. He is 59th on the FedExCup list, so he will probably make it into the playoffs. So it was a big surprise to see Jordan’s name on the list of players at the John Deere. I can see it. As an amateur, he was T-58th at the Deere. He turned pro and found a lot of magic at the John Deere, winning in 2013, finishing T-7th in 2014, and then winning again in 2015. But he last played in this event a while ago. In 16 rounds, he is 51 under par and has only been over par in one round. That doesn’t mean success when he plays this week, but I have to say pleasant memories tend to improve one’s play. Can he contend this week? I say yes and feel he will be in the top ten, and don’t be surprised to see him contending down the stretch on Sunday. Could this help him in Scotland and the playoffs? It can’t hurt him. Still, we need to find out how his wrist is, which could be a problem this week.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic, a significant part of golf history, was established in 1971. It was the brainchild of a visionary businessman in Davenport, Iowa, and started as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. The event’s roots were firmly planted in Davenport until 1974, when it found a new home at the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic continued to flourish in Coal Valley until 2000, when it made a momentous move to Silvis, coinciding with the inauguration of the TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After an opening round 1-under, Wie was in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day and 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on #15 as she proceeded to pull her drive severely. From there chipped into a bunker and, eventually, made a double bogey. We ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 2004, the John Deere Classic has been scheduled a week before the British Open, with the exception of 2016. This timing has always posed a challenge in attracting a strong field of players. However, starting last year, the event was strategically moved two weeks before the British Open, which has made the field less competitive but more manageable.

• TPC Deere Run
• Silvis, Il.
• 7,289 yards     Par 35-36–71

The course rating is 75.6, and the slope rating is 145 from the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play. It also sells local memberships.

Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River, and the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.

More recently, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near-perfect setting for its destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over 100 years.

TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of ancient philosophy and feels to the golf course. It’s an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 76 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape. Those bunkers just got a fresh renovation, so they should come more into play this week. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.

The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have been protected, and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property intact with its dramatic pitches and rolls. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.The John Deere Classic, a significant part of golf history, was established in 1971. It was the brainchild of a visionary businessman in Davenport, Iowa, and started as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. The event’s roots were firmly planted in Davenport until 1974, when it found a new home at the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic continued to flourish in Coal Valley until 2000, when it made a momentous move to Silvis, coinciding with the inauguration of the TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After an opening round 1-under, Wie was in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day and 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on #15 as she proceeded to pull her drive severely. From there chipped into a bunker and, eventually, made a double bogey. We ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 2004, the John Deere Classic has been scheduled a week before the British Open, with the exception of 2016. This timing has always posed a challenge in attracting a strong field of players. However, starting in 2022, the event was strategically moved two weeks before the British Open, which has made the field less competitive but more manageable.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Deere Run.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, data from last year’s John Deere, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2024.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run is that it’s one of those rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters, and those that hit it long have no real advantage. Those that hit it long must throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,289 yards, but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of role. In an era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has four par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that, all three par 5s are accessible in two, even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners’ ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, Michael Kim, Lucas Glover 2022 champion J.T Poston who ranked 104th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2022. and last year’s champion, Sepp Straka, ranked 105th in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2023 and in 2024 ranked 133rd. Yes, I know the longest hitter of the ball today is Bryson DeChambeau, who won in 2017, but that was an anomaly.
Lots of birdies are always made on the course; last year, 1,822 were made on TPC Deere Run, with only nine courses seeing more birdies: TPC River Highlands (1,844), Keene Trace (1,866), TPC Twin Cities (1,869), {prt Royal Golf Course (1,939), TPC Summerlin (1,956), TPC Craig Ranch (2,021), Detroit G.C. (2,066), and El Cardonal at Diamante (2,094).

Since 2019, in four events, the course has played overly fair, with the scoring average being 69.59, which is close to a shot and a half under its par of 71. So, TPC Deere Run is a relatively easy course, and you have to make a lot of birdies and eagles. In 2023, it played to a 69.47 average, making it the 40th hardest course (out of 58 on tour last year). Making birdies is essential, as 1,822 were made on the course last year.
As we said, the TPC Deere Run field’s scoring average was low last year, the lowest since 2018, when it averaged 69.38. This was due mostly to the weather, which was warm with rain on Friday and not much wind. Soft conditions bring on low scoring.

Here is a look at the scoring average at the par 71 TPC Deere Run for the last few years:
*2022 – Average was 69.58, was the 34th hardest of the 50 courses that year
*2021 – Average was 69.51; it was the 41st hardest of the 51 courses that year
*2020 – Was not played due to covid
*2019 – Average was 69.51, 35th hardest of 49 courses that year.
So, the course is the type you must think low and make many birdies on. Look for super low scoring this week since the temperatures will be in the low 80s each day, with rain on Thursday and Friday so that the course will be soft. Look for primarily good conditions over the weekend with no rain and winds under 12 mpg.

So, looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those who hit it long, those who hit it short will at least have as much chance as the longer hitter. So it’s a perfect time to look at these strokes gained stats as our first three categories: Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained Total. After that, Strokes Gained Putting is essential because this course is easy to putt; there is not much undulation in the greens, so poor putters have a good chance this week. We saw that when J.T. Poston won in 2022, he ranked T-41st in Strokes Gained Putting for the year, but for the week at the John Deere, he was 31st. In 2021, Lucas Glover was 19th in Strokes Gained Putting at TPC Deere Run but was 137th for the year.
The tournament is being played two weeks before the British Open so that the course will be firm and fast. TPC Deere Run underwent a major renovation after the 2021 event. All 80 bunkers were completely rebuilt, with four eliminated. Some other changes stretched the course 21 yards, but the bunker work will make it a notch tougher.

Our first category is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. Short hitters have a significant advantage; Last year, the average drive of all drives at TPC Deere Run was 297.0, as the course ranked 31st out of the 41 courses tracked in 2023. In Driving Accuracy, 64.16% of the fairways were hit at the TPC Deere run, which ranked 43rd out of 58 courses for 2023. So, the combination of both stats shows that the TPC Deere Run is perfect for those who hit it short and straight. Sepp Straka was the winner, and his average drive for all the holes was 298.0 yards, ranked 28th. Straka hit 42 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-9th as he was 7th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .821 shots.
Here is a look at the Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee of the John Deere Classic for the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run ranked 23rd in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 295.1 yards (out of 36 courses), and it was T-36th (out of 50 courses) in driving accuracy as 63.52% of the fairways were hit. Winner J.T. Poston’s average drive for all holes was 296.5, which ranked 37th, and he hit 41 of 56 fairways, ranking T-12th. Poston was 15th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .690 shots.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run ranked 18th in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 289.5 yards (out of 39 courses) and 38th (out of 51 courses) in driving accuracy, as 67.73% of the fairways were hit. Winner Lucas Glover’s average drive for all holes was 287.6, which ranked T-30th, and he hit 41 of 56 fairways, which ranked T-24th. Glover was 30th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .317 shots.
*2020 – Was not played due to covid
*2019 – TPC Deere Run ranked 28th in driving distance of all holes with an average drive of 293.1 yards (out of 35 courses), and it was 38th (out of 58 courses) in driving accuracy as 66.78% of the fairways were hit. Winner Dylan Frittelli’s average drive for all holes was 294.9, which ranked 37th, and he hit 44 of 56 fairways, ranking T-7th. Frittelli was 10th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, gaining .767 shots.

Our second stat is Strokes Gained Putting. We pick this stat because most past TPC winners are notoriously poor putters but seem able to putt well at the John Deere Classic. Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked T-29th in Putting average, 27th in One-Putt Percentage, T-17th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 13th in Putting Inside ten feet as 87.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, ranked 2nd in Putting Average, T-19th in One-Putt Percentage, T-26th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 47th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 57 out of 65 of the putts in this range. With all these stats, he was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting as he gained 1.693 shots.

Here is a look at the putting stats of the TPC Deere Run and John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run ranked 31st in Putting average, 21st in One-Putt Percentage, T-24th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 23rd in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.20% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner J.T. Poston ranked 27th in Putting average, T-34th in One-Putt Percentage, T-55th in 3-putt Avoidance, and T-48th in Putting Inside ten feet, making 65 out of 74 putts in this range. With all these stats, it’s no surprise that he was 31st in Strokes Gained in Putting, gaining just .564 shots.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run ranked T-34th in Putting average, 23rd in One-Putt Percentage, 41st in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 36th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.85% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Lucas Glover ranked 10th in Putting average, T-4th in One-Putt Percentage, T-48th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 50th in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 61 out of 69 putts in this range. With all of these stats, he was 19th in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining .750 shots Gained.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – TPC Deere Run ranked 36th in Putting average, 26th in One-Putt Percentage, 35th in 3-Putt Avoidance, and 28th in Putting Inside ten feet, as 88.75% of the putts in this range were made.
Winner Dylan Frittelli ranked 22nd in Putting average, T-15th in One-Putt Percentage, T-19th in 3-putt Avoidance, and 3rd in Putting Inside ten feet as he made 60 out of 7626 of the putts in this range. With these stats, he was 2nd in Strokes Gained Putting, gaining 1.865 shots.

We have yet to use our third stat before Strokes Gained Total. This adds up all the stats gained for SG Off-the-Tee, SG Approach-the-Green, SG Around-the-Green, SG Putting, and SG Tee-to-Green. You can’t find this in course statistics, but it is found for each player. Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, was 7th in SG Off-the-Tee, picking up .621 shots, was 18th in SG Approach-the-Green, picking up .856 shots, 34th in SG Around-the-Green, picking up .172 shots, 4th in S.G. Putting picking up 1.693 shots and 7th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 1.849. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.542 shots.
Here is a look at the S.G. Total of the TPC Deere Run and John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – Winner J.T. Poston, was 15th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .690 shots, was 10th in SG Approach-the-Green picking up 1.176 shots, 1st in SG Around-the-Green picking up 1.486 shots, 31st in SG Putting picking up .564 shots and 1st in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 3.353. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.917 shots.
*2021 – Winner Lucas Glover, was 30th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .317 shots, was 3rd in SG Approach-the-Green picking up 1.780 shots, 17th in SG Around-the-Green picking up .456 shots, 19th in SG Putting picking up .750 shots and 4th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 2.553. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.303 shots.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – Winner Dylan Frittelli, was 10th in SG Off-the-Tee picking up .767 shots, was 60th in SG Approach-the-Green losing .233 shots, 2nd in SG Around-the-Green picking up 1.211 shots, 2nd in SG Putting picking up 1.865 shots and 15th in SG Tee-to-Green picking up 31.746. If you add up all five of these stats, he is 1st in S.G. Total, gaining 3.611 shots.

Our last category is the number of birdies made; those at the top of the list will make many of them, and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy; last year, it played to an average of 69.47, as 1,822 birdies were made, which ranked 50th out of 58 courses. Winner Sepp Straka made 26 birdies, the most of anyone in the field.
Here is a look at the number of birdies made at the TPC Deere Run and for the John Deere Classic winners in the last few years:
*2022 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,803 birdies made that year, which ranked 43rd out of 50 courses. Winner J.T. Poston made 22 birdies and ranked T-5th.
*2021 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,802 birdies made, which ranked 47th out of 51 courses on tour that year. Winner Lucas Glover made 24 birdies, the most of anyone.
*2020 – No event due to Covid.
*2019 – TPC Deere Run saw 1,885 birdies made, which ranked 47th out of 49 courses on tour that year. Winner Dylan Frittelli made 22 birdies, which ranked T-9th.
So yes, making many birdies is very beneficial and needed to win this week.
Usually, we would say that a non-marquee name would win, but that isn’t the case. In the last 14 years, we have seen Steve Stricker win three times, and Jordan Spieth won twice, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, and Kenny Perry, so the event has seen some marquee champions. On top of that, 2021 champion Lucas Glover isn’t a slouch; he won the 2009 U.S. Open, while the defending champion J.T. Poston won the 2019 Wyndham on top of the John Deere.
So, after weeks of playing on challenging courses in the U.S. Open, Canadian Open, Memorial, and the PGA Championship, players get a break, and this week is all about making the most birdies and eagles.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way to determine how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with a stroke figure.

*Strokes Gained Total: The per-round average of the number of Strikes the player scored better or worse than the field average on the same course and event.

*Birdie average: Calculates how many birdies a player makes per round

Of the 156 players in the field, 104 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Most DraftKings points earned

We have compiled a database beginning at the 2023 Sentry and going through the 2024 Rocket Mortgage, a total of 73 events (we don’t put in the Zurich team event). The database includes how many points a player won during the event and his cost. From the database, we can determine the total DraftKing points earned, the players’ average points earned per event, and average points based on the number of rounds played.

Of the players in the field, here are the top 60 playing in at least ten events:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Jordan Spieth – $10,500
• Sepp Straka – $10,400
• Sungjae Im – $10,300
• Aaron Rai – $10,000
• Maverick McNealy – $9,800
• Davis Thompson – $9,600
• Denny McCarthy – $9,500
• Jason Day – $9,400
• Keith Mitchell – $9,200
• J.T. Poston – $9,100
• Sam Stevens – $9,000

Since there aren’t many marquee players, the top players in DraftKings money are those that you least expect. So have to be careful as most of these players do have a high amount of cuts missed. The top dog, Jordan Spieth – $10,500, is a hit-or-miss pick.  Yes, he has a great record at John Deere, and that could help motivate those who think that his cost is too high to take him.  Sepp Straka is $10,400 and could be a good pick.  Since the Masters, he has four top-ten finishes, which could carry over to this week.  Sungjae Im at $10,300 is also worth a look since missing the cut at the Masters and has five top-12 finishes in seven starts.  Aaron Rai at $10,000  is my favorite, he almost won last week and has played well of late Maverick McNealy at $9,800 could be a surprise winning, he has played well at Deere Run and was T-7th in Canada last month.  I like Davis Thompson at $9,600, he was T-2nd in Detroit last week and T-9th at th U.S. Open.  Denny McCarthy, at $9,500, is a good pick, he was T-6th in 2023 and ’22 at the Deere, and is a good putter who could surprise a lot of us this week.  Jason Day, at $9,400, could be worth a pick. He has played at the Deere five times and made five cuts.  He was T-4th at Wells Fargo in May, so anything could happen.  Keith Mitchell at $9,200 and J.T. Poston at $9,100 are not for me.  Sam Stevens, at $9,000, is worth the price and has played well since the Players.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Nick Dunlap at $8,900 is a good pick, played terrible after winning in Palm Springs, but has played well of late including T-10th at the Rocket Mortgage. Lucas Glover, at $8,700, has played well at Deere Run and will play well this week. Eric Cole, at $8,500, is a person to think about, the season hasn’t been terrible, and he seems to be getting it together again.  Seamus Power, at $8,300, has played well at Deere Run and could contend this week.  Adam Svensson, at $8,200, is worth the price, he has made a lot of cuts since the players were T-21st last year.  I like Neal Shipley at $7,500.  Played well in his professional debut last week and is hungry to find a way onto the PGA Tour.

Some of the “bargains” this week at John Deere

We have to dig for players from this group first, like Daniel Berger at $7,400. He has been up and down in his comeback year, but like that, he has played well at TPC Deere Run.  Michael Kim, at $7,400, is a past winner and is fighting hard in 2024.  Chris Gotterup at $7,200 is worth the gamble, he was T-4th at the John Deere in 2022.  Zach Johnson at $7,000 is worth the cost this week because he plays so well at TPC Deere Run.  Matt Kuchar at $6,900 is a good choice on this course, he is playing better.  Ben Kohles at $6,600 is a great pick, cheap, will make the cut and could get you a top ten.  The same with Kevin Streelman at $6,600, this is a perfect course for him.