Open Championship Key Fantasy Stats

Open Championship

July 18th – 21st, 2024

Royal Troon

Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,385

Purse: $17 million

with $3,100,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Brian Harman

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

It’s hard to believe we have another major coming up; that’s the good news, the bad news, the last one for the year. The Masters is only 271 days away, and before you know it, we will be talking about the new year of majors. But before that, we have to finish the majors in 2024.

This week, the Open Championship is being played at Royal Troon on the west coast of Scotland, about 35 miles from Glasgow. This course is a gem and, along with Muirfield, could be the best course on the British Open rota. The course is about the same as Hoylake, which held the Open last year, but the course is more open, with the front nine going out to the south and the back nine turning around and heading back north. Of the 18 holes, only one hole doesn’t go north to south or south to north, which is the 12th hole. Usually, the wind blows from the north, so folklore is if you’re not under par by the time you reach the 8th tee, you better just give up because you will shoot a lot. Here is what I am talking about. The par for the front nine is 36, and in 2016, the last time the Open was played at Troon, the front nine scoring average was 36.153, which meant that the field was just a notch over par. The back nine is a par 35, but the scoring average was 37.009, which meant it played two over par. So, the back nine is two shots harder than the front nine.
Many things will happen to set up and make this championship much more challenging than in past years. First is the weather. Scotland has been very wet, which means Troon is green and lush, so if you miss the fairway, it may be tough to get onto the green. As the players said on Monday, the weather was so good it made them feel they were in San Diego, not Scotland. This weather will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, but then all hell breaks loose. The great weather turns around with rain all four days, along with high winds with gusts up to 35 mph. This makes it even harder for the players to gauge; the normal wind is out of the north, but when the tournament starts on Thursday, the winds will come out of the southwest, making the course play entirely different. With this wind, the front nine will be against the wind, and the reverse on the back nine will have the wind behind them and help them. So players, especially those who have yet to play at Troon, will find it hard to prepare. Sure, they can play on a calm, sunny day, but it will be the reverse: rain, cold, and windy when the tournament starts.

So let’s talk about the course itself. Little has changed since the first Open championship was played in 1923. The layout is the same as it was 101 years ago; the holes are pretty much the same, with the addition of bunkers and new tees. 1923, when the Open was at Troon, it played at 6,533 yards, and a par of 72; AG Havers won with a score of 295. It wasn’t played again until 1950, when the yardage was just 6,583, and Bobby Locke won with a score of 279. The course held the Open 12 years later, and the course was stretched to 7,045 as Arnold Palmer shot 276. In 1997, the course changed to 71, and the course was 7,079. The last time it was played was in 2016, the par 71 course played to 7,190. For this year, the R&A has added 195 yards, and it will play to a length of 7,385, 852 yards longer than in 1950, 74 years ago. So, the evolution of the Royal Troon has been negligible as the players today will play the same course that the Open was held 101 years ago.

Royal Troon is a serious test in which bombers will have a slight advantage. If you look at the roll call of past champions, most of them haven’t been long-hitters. In 2016, Henrik Stenson was 108th in driving distance for the year. In 2004, when Todd Hamilton won, he was 136th in the driving distance for the year. The same happened in 1997 when Justin Leonard won at Troon; he ranked 172nd in driving distance for the year.

This week, the players will find out how much of a dominant course Troon is, and you have to hit it well off the tee, have precision iron play, and putt well. A perfect example is driving the ball; on the 14 driving holes, there are 30 fairway bunkers, so an average of two per hole. Now, these aren’t regular bunkers from which a player can reach the green; many of them are deep enough that an attempt to get to the green is impossible, so you must lay it up. The rough will be challenging for those who avoid fairway bunkers, as the fairways average 34 yards. Yes, it could be worse, but in some places, again, you have to take your medicine and lay it up down the fairway. Remember what we said. Troon has had a lot of rain, so the rough is thick and hard. As for the greens, the 18 greens are guarded by 51 bunkers, or just about two and a half per hole. Again, you hit it into a bunker, and that bunker will gobble up your ball, and the deepness along steep faces again makes it challenging. The greens are only 6,80 square feet, which is about average, so if you’re on the fairway, getting them on the greens shouldn’t present a problem.

So, what are the keys to winning this week?
*Good bunker play – yes, you want to avoid them, but for those that can escape and get it up and down, it will help.
*Some will say that length and brute strength will play an important role this week. That’s different from how past champions won; they did it by keeping the ball in play. So does that mean a player like Bryson DeChambeau will not have a chance this week? Sure, the longer you drive it, the more of an advantage you will have. But with heavy rough, that will be trickier when wet; look for more irons off the tee. In looking at DeChambeau’s record at the Open Championship, he has played six times and only been in the top 30 once, which was at St. Andrews, which has the most generous fairways of any course. DeChambeau could have a tough time unless he gets wise and uses irons off the tees.
*Putting is going to be a premium this week. The greens are flat and very slow under the standards of the top professionals, so look for lots of 7, 8, 9, and 10-footers to be made. The greens at Pinehurst were speedy and had lots of undulations; that is not the case at Troon; the greens on Monday were rolling at 9 on a stipmeter. At Pinehurst, it was close to 12 and 13.
*Will Troon have a surprise winner, or will it be a marquee name? Nobody can predict. Look at the past; it has a history of any Champion. In 2016, Henrik Stenson won many significant events, so his win was no surprise. But in 2004, Todd Hamilton was a big winner in Japan but came to Troon with just one PGA Tour victory. After he won at Troon, he never won again. So yes, a surprise winner like Brian Harman did last year could happen. One name that could win this week is Cameron Smith; if he can keep it in the fairway, his putter could win this.
*Players will have to be able to play in all conditions. For the practice rounds on Monday, the course played easy and dry, with the wind coming out of the north. The same will happen on Tuesday and Wednesday before significant changes of rain and high winds coming from the southwest, changing how to play Troon. So people will only know how to play once the rains and winds start, and yes, it will rain.
*Scrambler: The greens are a bit small, and a player must have the skills to get up and down from off the green or greenside bunkers.
*Player that doesn’t hit it into bunkers. Remember this: Justin Leonard’s win at Troon in 1997 was because he didn’t hit it in a bunker during the 72 holes. If that gets repeated this week, that person will win the Claret Jug.

So, with that said, how can we judge this course? First, we have minimal historical stats, so we will do something we have done in the past Open Champions and another course with limited stats in picking our four key stats. We are using strokes gained stats.

Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving it straight will be necessary. Getting it in the fairway is essential with thick, rough, challenging bunkers. We can see and hear the players talking about the fescue/bentgrass and dozens of other hazards around Troon playing a factor this week. Even trains will play a factor as the 11th hole runs right next to the railroad tracks, which could bother players, or they could hit it right onto the tracks.
Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens is essential, and you must make sure to hit the greens.

Our third stat is Strokes Gained around the green because players will miss greens and must get it up and down.

Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because that will be very important for players this week.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per-round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: This takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around the Green: The number of strokes gained from shots around the green. A lot of it is scrambling and bunker play.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

The 69 of the 158 players from this year’s field with stats from 2024. Remember there are a lot of foreign, amateur, and LIV Golf players in the field:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.