Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We finally ended the major season in a significant way. All the winners were Americans. It was the first time America swept the majors since 1982, when Craig Stadler won the Masters, Tom Watson won the U.S. Open and British Open, and Ray Floyd won the PGA Championship. Two of the major winners this year, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, both have a chance of winning Player of the Year, but it will take Xander winning the Olympics and the FedExCup playoffs. Schauffele, who joined the PGA Tour in 2017, went 28 majors before finally winning and now has won two of his last three major starts. Another remarkable feat, in both his PGA Championship and British victories, he shot 65 in the final round, a rarity when you consider that in Tiger’s 15 major wins, his lowest final round was 67 done three times. Even Jack Nicklaus, who won 18 majors, has only shot 65 twice in the final rounds at the 1967 U.S. Open and 1986 Masters.

For Xander, it was a dominant win. Can he do it again?

Of course, he has made his two major victories look easy. The question is not whether he will win another major but how many.

So how succesful was Troon?

I was not there, but in emails by those at Troon, everyone was very positive. Despite poor weather, the course held up well, and it wasn’t a birdie fest like in 2022 at St. Andrews. This was the ten times they played at Troon, and we know that the R&A will return to Troon in seven to ten years. Troon and Muirfield are easily the best of all the courses that hold the Open Championship. Both courses are not as easy as St. Andrews, but they are not as tough as Carnoustie can be. Despite the poor weather and high winds, only a few players complained as Troon played great.

What about Scottie?

Scheffler shot rounds of 70-70-71-72 to finish T-7th and eight shots back of Xander. From tee to green, Scottie was good, but his problems were with the putter. He took 118 putts, which ranked T-48th. He had four more putts than Xander, who ranked T-17th.  But with all of the other stats, Xander completely outplayed Schauffele. As for their year, both made the cut in all four majors, but while Scottie was 1st at the Masters, T-8th at the PGA Championship, T-41st at the U.S. Open, and T-7th at the British, he was 17 under in his 16 major rounds. Xander was 8th in the Masters, won the PGA Championship, T-7th at the U.S. Open, and won the British Open. He was 32 under in his 16 major rounds, the best of anyone this year.

What about Rory?

Many wonder if Rory will ever win another major. He came to Troon as one of the favorites, as his game looked great the week before at the Scottish Open. But in true McIlroy fashion, McIlroy was totally lost, as he shot 78-75 to miss the cut. He only made three birdies in both rounds but had two double bogeys, a triple bogey, and seven bogeys. I have a funny feeling that until Rory comes into a major with zero questions asked, in a way like Phil Mickelson was in his 2021 PGA Championship win, he will Rory come close to winning another major? Since Rory felt his game was in great shape at all the majors this year, he only contended at the U.S. Open that it will be a long next three months before the Masters.

This week and the 3M Open

With the major season-ending, we have the Olympics, three FedEx Cup playoffs, and the Presidents Cup left. The focus for the next two weeks is on how players try to make it into the playoffs. For 40 years, if you were in the top 125, you retained your PGA Tour card. But this week, like last year, it has a twist; sure, at the end of the year, those in the top 125 will keep their cards for 2025. The big difference is that the season continues after the Tour Championship. There are eight events after the Tour Championship, and nobody wants to play in them. Those eight will determine who retains their Tour card for 2025. So, for a player having to play in the remaining eight events, it means they didn’t make the top 70, which gets you into the playoffs. That is the significant change for the second year in a row; after the Wyndham, you have to be in the top 70 to ensure you get into the playoffs and, for many, retain their tour cards. It’s remarkable how many players aren’t in the top 70. Lucas Glover is 72nd; of course, he won’t lose his Tour card, but he has played in the last six playoffs. Lee Hodges is 73rd and has been in the playoffs for the last two years. Keith Mitchell is 76th and has played in the playoffs for the last six years. Nate Lashley is 98th and has been to the playoffs for the last two years. After regaining his game last year and finishing 16th in the FedExCup playoffs, Rickie Fowler is 100th and on the verge of not making the playoffs for the third time in the last four years. K.H. Lee has been on the PGA Tour for the last six years but presently is 112th and may miss the playoffs for the first time. The biggest broken streak will be if Matt Kuchar doesn’t make the playoffs. Right now, he is 155th. He has been to the playoffs for the last 17 years, and he, with Adam Scott, are the only players that has attended every playoff since it started in 2007. Scott is 41st in the rankings, so he will attend the playoffs and will be the last player in every one since 2007.

So here are the players on the bubble this week.

• #66 Seamus Power
• #67 Emiliano Grillo
• #68 Maverick McNealy
• #69 Victor Perez – Not playing in 3M
• #70 Davis Riley
• #71 Luke List
• #72 Lucas Glover – Not playing in 3M
• #73 Lee Hodges
• #74 Andrew Putnam
• #75 Adam Schenk
• #76 Keith Mitchell
• #77 Nicolai Hojgaard – Not playing in 3M
• #78 Kurt Kitayama
• #79 Adam Svensson
• #80 Ben Kohles

Course information:

• TPC Twin Cities
• Blaine, Minnesota.
• 7,431 yards     Par 35-36–71

2019 was the first year of the 3M Open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and remained successful when it switched to the PGA Tour in 2019. The one thing about the course is that the time it’s played gets tougher. In the first year of 2019, the course played to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below par. Ranking-wise, it was T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier. What happened in the event was that the first year was a straightforward course that catered to long-hitters. But the course was a bit different the next year. Rough was up, and the PGA Tour tucked away the pins. So, more traditional players that didn’t hit have long done well. The scoring average was up, 69.95, and the course rank also went up as the course ranked 23rd hardest. In 2021, we saw a combination of rough tucking of pins and wind blowing over 10 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph on Thursday as the course played to a 70.44 average, the 24th hardest for the year. In 2022, a combination of thicker rough and winds blew the scoring average to 71.44, making it the 14th hardest course for last year. Last year had perfect weather; the scoring average was 69.71, and the course ranked 38th.

The weather makes things more complicated, but because of the summertime, the course is dry and fast, along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year and temperatures in the 90s could make the course easier. Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs, meaning players have to be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bombers haven. The greens are small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole, good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again, look for players who hit greens and have deceit putts at birdies. Last year, 1,869 birdies were made, along with 59 eagles, which is suitable for a course with only three par 5s.

Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in play off the tee), bunkers (14 in total), and rough. Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have their way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players. There is a total of 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 of them guarding the greens.

The big question is whether fans still come out and support the event with non-marquee players. In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19 and a half under par, and that was in tournaments that were only 54 holes. In 2010, David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 in a 25 under-par total. The Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards, and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials made severe changes in 2018. Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,431 yards, but par has been reduced to 71. Still, for the longest hitters in the world, this won’t present any problems. Another thing is that tournament officials are making holes 7, 10, and 16 easier by moving tees up on the holes, so they will play between 280 and 315 yards, making them drivable. Still, the holes are well guarded by water, so they won’t be automatic birdie holes. The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so they will not be automatic birdie holes.

Despite not having the marquee names, it’s still a PGA Tour event with great players in an area that loves the event and will come out to support it, like those folks at other popular events like the John Deere Classic. One thing for 2024: it will be hot and muggy for the tournament, so it will make it survival of the fittest.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Twin Cities.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Twin Cities, data from last year’s 3M Open, and data from all the players in the field with stats from 2023.
Last year was the fifth year of the 3M Open. It was a popular venue for the Champions Tour event before switching to 2019. The switch proved very successful as the community got in the back of the tournament and made it a mainstay for the Minnesota area. Now, the heart and soul of the event is the course TPC Twin Cities. It’s a course most players like because they can produce a low score on it. Last year, things got back to normal with good weather, as the scoring average was 69.71, which ranked 38th. Winner Lee Hodges won with a 24 under-par average. In 2022, the scoring average was 71.44 because of the weather, which is almost half a shot over par and the 14th easiest course. Winner Tony Finau was 17 under par, making 20 birdies in his three-shot victory. In 2021, the scoring average was 70.44 (a shot easier than last year), half a shot under par, and the 24th hardest course on Tour. Winner Cameron Champ scored 15 under par and had 21 birdies for the week. The previous year, it played to a 69.95 scoring average, a shot below its par. Ranking-wise, it was the 23rd hardest on the PGA Tour.
With the course playing easier last year, 1,869 birdies and 59 eagles were made, compared to 2022, when 1,510 birdies and 38 eagles were made. It was better than in 2019 when the course had more birdies made on it (1,976) than any other course in 2019. In 2020, the course had 1,769 birdies, placing it 36th out of 41 courses, and in 2021, 1,687 birdies were made, ranking it 42nd out of 51 courses. So, making birdies could be one of the essential parts of playing well at TPC Twin Cities.
The stats show that this is a bomber’s course. The same is true for Eagles; last year, 59 were made, which is good for a course that only has three par 5s.

We have picked four categories that are needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Green, which looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens.
Last year, the average drive was 292.2 for all the holes, ranking 18th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 41st with 62.78% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, he ranked 44th in driving distance and T-13th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green. In 2022, the average drive was 288.8 for all the holes, ranking 16th. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 38th with 63.54% of the drives in the fairway. Last year’s winner, Tony Finau, ranked 17th in driving distance and T-6th in accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green. In 2021, the average drive was 300.3 yards for measured drives and ranked 37th, meaning that only 14 other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 28th, with 62.66% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he ranked 8th in driving distance and T-49th in accuracy, so he ranked 27th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2020, winner Michael Thompson ranked 46th in driving distance and T-22nd in accuracy, so he ranked 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. As for 2019 winner Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in Driving Distance and T-31st in Accuracy, so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course where greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation, so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 48th on Tour with 73.37% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner, Hodges, hit 58 of 72 greens last year for 80.56%, ranking T-9th. In 2022, TPC Twin Cities was ranked 27th on Tour with 66.87% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner last year, Finau, hit 60 of 72 greens for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd. The course in 2021 ranked 38th on Tour with 70.38% of the greens hit. So this shows again that many players hit the greens last year. The winner in 2021, Champ, hit 54 of 72 greens for 75.00%, ranking T-22nd. In 2020, Michael Thompson hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, ranking T-3rd. In 2019, winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33%, which ranked T-6th. Runner-up Louis Oosthuizen hit the most greens, 62 of 72.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting, an integral part of the game. Last year, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.763, and the course ranked T-29th. It averaged 29.69 putts per round, ranking it 13th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 34th. As for last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, he took 112 putts, ranked T-4th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 4th. In 2022, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.800, and the course ranked 13th. It averaged 29.65 putts per round, ranking it 10th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 17th. As for 2022 winner Tony Finau, he took 117 putts, ranked 37th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was ranked 42nd. In 2021, the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.775, and the course ranked 22nd. It averaged 29.49 putts per round, ranking it 14th, and in the important inside ten feet, it ranked 37th. As for 2021 winner, Champ, he took 109 putts, ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, and was ranked 1st. In 2020, Thompson took 115 putts, ranking 1st, and Strokes Gained Putting was 1st. In putts inside ten feet, he ranked 3rd, making 61 of 64 putts. In 2019, Wolff took 115 putts, ranked T-25th, and in Strokes Gained Putting, he was 39th. In the critical putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.
The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece, 1,8699 birdies were made on the course, and it ranked 53rd in total birdies. It had a total of 59 eagles, which ranked 53rd. Last year’s winner, Lee Hodges, made 25 birdies, ranked 1st, and made 2 eagles. So Hodges was 1st in Par Breaker. In 2022, 1,510 birdies were made on the course, ranking 35th in total birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. Last year’s winner, Tony Finau, made 20 birdies, ranked T-4th, and didn’t make an eagle. So Finau was T-5th in Par Breaker. In 2021, 1,687 birdies were made on the course, with only nine other courses making more birdies. It had a total of 38 eagles, which ranked 33rd. 2021 winner Cameron Champ made 21 birdies, ranked T-2nd, and didn’t make an eagle. So Champ was T-2nd in Par Breaker. In 2020, Michael Thompson made 22 birdies, ranked T-7th, but didn’t make an eagle. So Thompson was T-12th in Par Breaker. In 2019, TPC Twin Cities had 52 eagles, ranked 43rd and 39th in Par Breakers. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was 1st in Par Breakers.
Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau, and his eagle on the 72nd hole was the reason he won the tournament by a shot. Thompson played great and cruised to a two-shot victory, the same with Champ in 2021. Last year’s winner, Tony Finau, shot 67 in the final round and won by three shots.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent of putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 111 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2024.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $10,500
• Sahith Theegala – $10,300
• Sam Burns – $10,000
• Akshay Bhatia – $9,800
• Billy Horschel – $9,600
• Keith Mitchell – 9,400
• Luke Clanton – $9,300
• J.T. Poston – $9,200
• Keegan Bradley – $9,000

So, making this week hard is the lack of marquee names. It’s always hard in events with few marquee names because many players were priced as the middle tier and are now the favorites. So it’s a hard choice to take one of the high-priced players. One of the great things about this week is that players don’t cost a lot. If you avoid these five players at the top, you can pick many more of those in the $8,000 to $9,300 range. Tony Finau is our top guy at $10,500 and is worth the high cost. His record in the event is good; he was T-7th last year, won it in 2022, and was T-3rd in 2020. Yes, he missed the cut at Troon, but it has been great before that. So yes, it’s safe to take Finau despite the high cost. Sahith Theegala, at $10,300 for many, will be a hard choice. Theegala is good on bomber courses, but in three starts at TPC Twin Cities, he has missed the cut three times, so no to Theegala.  Sam Burns at $10,000 is a no for me; he was T-7th at Twin Cities in 2019 but has struggled with his game in 2024, including shooting 80 in his final round at Troon. Akshay Bhatia at $9,800, is a yes for me, he is playing in this event for the first time, and even though he missed the cut at the British Open, he was playing great before. Billy Horschel at $9,600 will be a tough choice. Please don’t get fooled by his good play at Troon; I can see a letdown after his poor finish. Keith Mitchell at 9,400 is a toss-up for me. He has played well at Twin Cities, was T-5th last year and 5th in 2021, but has struggled with his game the last month, so he is a no for me. Luke Clanton at $9,300 is another hard choice; playing for the first time in Twin Cities as an amateur has played great, finishing T-41st at the U.S. Open, T-10th at the Rocket Mortgage, T-2nd at John Deere and T-37th at the ISCO. I think he will play well this week. J.T. Poston at $9,200, is another guy to think of. He has yet to play well since the Charles Schwab, but his Twin Cities record is too good to pass up; he was runner-up last year. Keegan Bradley at $9,000 is a no for me. He hasn’t played well since Colonial, and his Twin Cities record could be better.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,700 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Cam Davis, at $8,900, is playing a course that suits him, and I think he is a smart pick for this week.  He has played ok at Twin Cities and has played well of late, including a win at the Rocket Mortgage.  I like Tom Hoge at $8,800, he has played Ok at Twin Cities and I like his T-3rd at the Travelers.  Taylor Pendrith at $8,700, is worth a pick, has played well in 2024, and could do well this week.  Emiliano Grillo at $8,500 I like because he plays well at Twin Cities, was T-10th last year, T-2nd in 2022 and T-3rd in 2020. Have to watch defending champion Lee Hodges at $8,200, he hasn’t been great in 2024, but again hasn’t been bad.  The course is perfect for him.  Sam Stevens at $7,800 is a good choice because the course suits his game.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the 3M

Slim pickings, basically we are looking at someone that can make the cut.  Rico Hoey at $7,500, has played great the last two weeks, including T-2nd at ISCO and T-8th at the Barracuda.  Thriston Lawrence at $7,400 just because he played so well at the British Open, I think it will carry over to this week.  Cameron Champ at $7,000 all because Twin Cities is perfect for his long game.  Kevin Streelman at $6,800, was runner-up last year and feels he will play well and make the cut. Aaron Baddeley is at $6,600 because he has made four of four cuts at the 3M, including T-7th last year.  Callum Tarren at $6,600, because he has played well at Twin Cities, was T-13th last year and T-7th in 2022.  Brice Garnett at $6,400 because he has made the cut in all five of the 3M Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the 3M Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• In 2020, we told you that looking at the seniors who played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those who won and finished in the top five were high up in hitting greens.  In 2021, not only did winner Matthew Woof hit it long, but he hit 60 of the 72 greens, which ranked T-6th.  The same with 2021 winner Cameron Champ, he was 8th in driving and 22nd in Greens Hit.  The same with 2022 winner Tony Finau, he was T-6th in driving and T-3 in Greens Hit.  Last year, Lee Hodges was T-9th in greens hit.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With the greens not having much undulations, good putters will do very well.  In 2019 runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the least of anyone in the field.  In 2021 Cameron Champ won thanks to his putter, he took just 109 putts and was co-leader. Last year Lee Hodges won thanks to the putter, he was 4th in Strokes Gained Putting.  So look for those at the top of the Strokes Gained Putting to play well. Here are those in the top ten of that list that are playing this week: Pierceson Coody (3rd), Mackenzie Hughes (7th), Justin Suh (8th), and Aaron Baddeley (10th).
• Another important item that we saw in previous years and within the seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles.  Look for those players that, week in and week out, make a lot of birdies and eagles.
• As we have stressed, this event won’t see many marquee names on top of the leaderboard.  For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff did in 2019, Michael Thompson in 2020, and Cameron Champ in 2021.
• The weather should be very hot this week, with temperatures going into the high 80s and a bit of humidity. There is a possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Other than that, it’s a good week on tap.